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REFORM AND TRANSITION
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
Series Editor: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis

THE ARAB
UPRISINGS IN EGYPT,
JORDAN AND TUNISIA
Social, Political and
Economic Transformations

Andrea Teti,
Pamela Abbott and
Francesco Cavatorta
Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean

Series editor
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Bilkent University
Ankara, Turkey
The series of political and economic crises that befell many countries in the
Mediterranean region starting in 2009 has raised emphatically questions
of reform and transition. While the sovereign debt crisis of Southern
European states and the “Arab Spring” appear prima facie unrelated, some
common roots can be identified: low levels of social capital and trust, high
incidence of corruption, and poor institutional performance. This series
provides a venue for the comparative study of reform and transition in the
Mediterranean within and across the political, cultural, and religious
boundaries that crisscross the region. Defining the Mediterranean as the
region that encompasses the countries of Southern Europe, the Levant,
and North Africa, the series contributes to a better understanding of the
agents and the structures that have brought reform and transition to the
forefront. It invites (but is not limited to) interdisciplinary approaches that
draw on political science, history, sociology, economics, anthropology,
area studies, and cultural studies. Bringing together case studies of indi-
vidual countries with broader comparative analyses, the series provides a
home for timely and cutting-edge scholarship that addresses the structural
requirements of reform and transition; the interrelations between politics,
history and culture; and the strategic importance of the Mediterranean for
the EU, the USA, Russia, and emerging powers.

More information about this series at

http://www.palgrave.com/series/14513
 Andrea Teti • Pamela Abbott
Francesco Cavatorta

The Arab Uprisings in

Egypt, Jordan and
Tunisia
Social, Political and Economic Transformations
Andrea Teti Pamela Abbott
University of Aberdeen University of Aberdeen
Aberdeen, United Kingdom Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Francesco Cavatorta
Laval University
Québec, Québec, Canada

Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean

ISBN 978-3-319-69043-8    ISBN 978-3-319-69044-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69044-5

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017956116

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub-
lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the
material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The
publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu-
tional affiliations.

Cover illustration: Pattern adapted from an Indian cotton print produced in the 19th century

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
 Foreword

This valuable study adds a critical dimension usually missing from analyses
of the varying trajectories of the Arab Uprising, namely how citizen atti-
tudes help explain the Uprising, how variations in them matter for regime
trajectories, and how outcomes have, in turn, altered mass attitudes. The
study is based on surveys in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan administered in
four years—2011 and 2013–2015—combined with a wealth of informa-
tion from pre-existing data bases, permitting the authors to make system-
atic comparisons across countries and time.
The work makes several important contributions to our understandings
of the Uprisings. First, the findings challenge the conventional narrative
that the Uprisings were essentially about democracy: if that had been the
overwhelming demand of the mobilised masses, why has been so little
democratisation? Did the agency of the people not matter compared to
elite interests and external constraints? The book’s findings help us get
beyond this dilemma, demonstrating that the main demand of the protes-
tors was not for purely procedural liberal democracy (competitive elec-
tions, political rights) and that majorities wanted, rather, substantive
democracy—socio-economic rights. Moreover, substantial numbers believed
their country was not ready for democracy or preferred an Islamist regime
or, when a trade-off between democracy and order was perceived, chose
order.
For protestors, the priorities were lack of economic opportunity and
unacceptable levels of corruption, and the protests against regimes were
for breaking the populist social contract under the widespread turn to
neo-liberalism and crony capitalism in the region. The study confirms the

v
vi FOREWORD

widespread impression that the activists driving regime change tended to

be educated youth but also that supporters were more likely to be those
with inadequate income (but not the very poorest) - that is, those who
had probably suffered the most from regimes’ policies and were most con-
scious of them.
The study also provides evidence on how citizen attitudes matter for
outcomes. First, variations in attitudes can be directly linked to differences
in regime trajectories: thus, opposition to the regime was overwhelming
in Tunisia and in Egypt, where presidents were overthrown, but not in
Jordan, were there was no regime change. In Tunisia alone was there high
support for political democracy: it is no accident that only in Tunisia was
there a successful democratic transition.
Second, while in the immediate aftermath of the Uprisings there were
high expectations of positive change, by 2014 disillusionment had set in as
governments continued with neo-liberal policies. A multitude of attitudi-
nal changes indicate political de-mobilisation: in 2014, only minorities
thought the Uprising had been positive for their country and most thought
the economic and security situation had deteriorated significantly com-
pared to 2009. Perceptions of economic decline were worse than objective
indicators showed. In parallel, expectations had drastically declined: peo-
ple now believed reform had to come gradually, not via further revolution.
Security had become a much more salient concern, to the point where the
formerly hated police were now valued, and regimes in Jordan and Egypt
enjoyed support for sparing their countries the violent chaos that had
enveloped neighbouring countries. These changes in attitudes much
reduced pressure on elites to deliver political reform and even re-­legitimised
authoritarian governance. Third, attitudes suggest Tunisia’s democratic
transition is in jeopardy. Its government, although the most democratic,
was not highly rated by citizens; political rights might have improved but
substantive democracy—social rights—had not, while Tunisia now faced a
terrorist threat non-existent before the Uprising.
This study offers a fascinating insight into why the Arab Uprising did
not become a democratic revolution.

International Relations and Middle East Politics Ray Hinnebusch

University of St Andrews,
St Andrews, Scotland
 Preface

This book analyses political, economic and social changes in Egypt, Jordan
and Tunisia since the 2010–2011 Uprisings against the backdrop of pre-­
Uprisings trajectories by integrating survey and non-survey data, both
quantitative and qualitative. In doing so, it shows that there is a need to
reflect on the conception of democracy at the heart of academic analysis
and to take seriously the challenge that collective preferences provide clues
to help address the limitations of existing analytical and policy toolkits. It
is necessary to reconsider the significance of socio-economic rights—as
well as juridical equality in civil and political rights—as non-negotiable
dimensions of a democratic society and of transitions towards it, but also
to re-evaluate the stability of authoritarian regimes in the region.

Acknowledgements
The Arab Transformations Project, Political and Social Transformations in
the Arab World, was funded under the European Commission’s FP7
Framework Grant agreement no: 320214. The Project was coordinated
by the University of Aberdeen (UK) and included: Dublin City University
(DCU), Dublin, Ireland; Análisis Sociológicos Económicos y Políticos
(ASEP), Madrid, Spain; Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
(ISPI), Milan, Italy; Universität Graz (UNI GRAZ), Graz, Austria;
Societatea Pentru Methodologia Sondajelor Concluzia-Prim (Concluzia),
Chisinau, Moldova; Centre de Recherche en Économie Appliquée pour le
Développement (CREAD), Algiers, Algeria; Egyptian Centre for Public
Opinion Research (BASEERA), Cairo, Egypt; Independent Institute for

vii
viii PREFACE

Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS), Amman, Jordan;

University of Jordan (JU), Amman, Jordan; MEDA Solutions (MEDAS),
Casablanca, Morocco; Association Forum Des Sciences Sociales Appliquées
(ASSF), Tunis, Tunisia.

Disclaimer
The authors alone remain responsible for the content of this book. It can-
not be taken as necessarily representing the views of the EU, the Court of
the University of Aberdeen or any of the project partners.

Aberdeen, UK Andrea Teti

 Contents

1 Introduction and Background   1

2 Understanding the Context: Hopes and Challenges

in 2011  27

3 Political Challenges: Expectations and Changes 2011–2014  55

4 Unmet Challenges and Frustrated Expectations: Economic

Security and Quality of Life 2011–2014  81

5 Employment Creation, Corruption and Gender Equality

2011–2014 103

6 Conclusions: Resilient Authoritarianism and Frustrated

Expectations 123

Index 141

ix
 Acronyms and Abbreviations

AB Arab Barometer
ADI Arab Democracy Index
AfB AfroBarometer
ATS Arab Transformations Survey
BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index
CSOs Civil Society Organisations
FSI Fragile State Index
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GGI Gender Gap Index
HDI Human Development Index
IFIs International Financial Institutions
NEET Not in Employment Education or Training
NGOs Non-governmental Organisations
UN United Nations
WDIs World Development Indicators
WGIs Worldwide Governance Indicators
WGP World Gallup Poll

xi
 List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Percentage mentioning economic factors, corruption and/or

political rights as one of the two main reasons that sparked the
Uprisings42
Fig. 2.2 Main challenges facing the country in 2011 (%) 44
Fig. 3.1 The separation of religion and socio-political life (% disagreeing
with religious influence), 2011 and 2014 74
Fig. 4.1 MENA economic growth index: present economic performance
and future enabling conditions (scores out of 100) 89
Fig. 4.2 Concerns about security in 2014 (%) 94
Fig. 4.3 Economic situation of household and country good or very
good in 2009 and 2014 (%) 98
Fig. 5.1 Percentage who say they are satisfied or very satisfied with
government performance in 2014 109

xiii
 List of Tables

Table 1.1 Taxonomies and approaches to transformations 21

Table 2.1 Support for and participation in the uprisings by category, age
18 and over in 2011, % 37
Table 2.2 Confident that the 2011 Uprisings will succeed in achieving
political and economic transformation, % 50
Table 3.1 Agree that political and civil rights are guaranteed in 2011 and
2013, % 63
Table 3.2 Negative effects of democracy, % 69
Table 3.3 ‘Type of political regime suitable/very suitable for my
country’ in 2011 and 2014, % 69
Table 3.4 Two most important characteristics of democracy 71
Table 4.1 Major challenges facing country in 2011 and 2014, %
nominating as one of two 91
Table 5.1 Trust in institutions in 2011 and 2014: political, legal,
religious, civil society and the media, % 107
Table 5.2 Agreeing/strongly greeting on propositions relating to gender
equality in 2014, % 118

xv
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction and Background

Abstract The Arab Uprisings were events of rare intensity in Middle

Eastern history as mass, popular and largely non-violent revolts which
threatened and toppled supposedly stable autocracies. Branded them the
region’s ‘1989 moment’, when counter-revolution followed revolution,
artificial expectations gave way to equally misplaced disaffection, still fails
to recognise the Uprisings’ originality and diversity. Focusing on three
cases epitomising different post-Uprising trajectories—Tunisia, Jordan and
Egypt—this chapter explores how the Uprisings have been analysed.
Explanations for the Uprisings fall into three categories, over-emphasising
in turn chances for democratisation, cultural or material obstacles to
democracy, or the stability of ‘hybrid regimes’. The chapter contextualises
events leading to the Uprisings in each country and examines strengths and
weaknesses of the toolkit through which the Uprisings have been viewed.

Keywords Arab Uprisings • Modernisation • Political transformation •

Democratisation • Authoritarianism • Authoritarian resilience

© The Author(s) 2018 1

A. Teti et al., The Arab Uprisings in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia,
Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69044-5_1
2 A. TETI ET AL.

1.1   Introduction
The Arab Uprisings represented a series of events of rare intensity in the
history of the Middle East, as mass, popular and largely non-violent revolts
took place, starting in December 2010 in Tunisia and reverberating
throughout the region. These protests threatened—and in four cases
resulted in the overthrow of—apparently stable autocratic regimes. The
nature and the extensive domestic, regional and international impact of
the Uprisings merit attention in and of themselves, but coming hard on
the heels of a global financial crisis and given the resonance of the Arab
Uprisings with protest movements beyond the region they appear all the
more significant. The relevance of the Uprisings is not just academic: the
Middle East is one of the most frequently conflictual regions in the world;
it is central to the global political economy as a source of hydrocarbons
and a global logistical nexus; it is a source of and transit point for migra-
tory flows towards Europe; and many of its autocracies have been sup-
ported as key allies by Western governments.
The Arab Uprisings in 2010/11 caught people, governments and many
academics by surprise (Gause 2011). Participants and observers both
within the region and beyond were surprised at the apparent ease with
which mass mobilisation wrong-footed supposedly resilient authoritarian
regimes, galvanising protesters, dismaying regime supporters, and leaving
Western governments’ policies in disarray. In Western capitals and media,
great hopes of swift democratisation were pinned on the Arab Uprisings
and they were quickly branded the Middle Eastern equivalent to the fall of
the Berlin Wall and the domino-like collapse of Soviet bloc dictatorships
in 1989 (Kaldor 2011). However, few significant democratic transforma-
tions have taken place, with only Tunisia formally qualifying as a democ-
racy by 2017 and substantive progress towards democracy often shaky
even there. Other countries in which Uprisings took place have experi-
enced the survival of authoritarian rule through repression (e.g. Bahrain),
counter-revolution (Egypt), civil war and the collapse of state structures
(Libya, Syria), or processes of reform and ‘façade democratisation’
(Morocco, Jordan) designed to maintain the substance of authoritarian
regimes untouched (Malmvig 2014). Both change and continuity have
characterised the post-Uprisings period (Hinnebusch ed. 2015; Rivetti
and Di Peri 2015), and in this book we outline and discuss what public
opinion survey data can tell us about the ways in which ordinary Arab citi-
zens perceive the socio-economic and political changes or lack thereof in
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