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FISHERIES MANAGEMENT:
PANDEMIC FAILURE, WORKABLE
SOLUTIONS
FISHERIES MANAGEMENT:
PANDEMIC FAILURE,
WORKABLE SOLUTIONS

GIULIO PONTECORVO
Professor Emeritus
Columbia University Graduate School of Business,
New York, NY, USA

WILLIAM E. SCHRANK
Professor Emeritus
Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada

WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY

MARK HOLLIDAY
NOAA Fisheries Office of Policy, United States National Marine
Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD, USA

DONALD B. OLSON
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science,
University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA

United Kingdom  North America  Japan

India  Malaysia  China
Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2009

Copyright r 2009 Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Reprints and permission service

Contact: [email protected]

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any
form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise
without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting
restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA
by The Copyright Clearance Center. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of
information contained in the text, illustrations or advertisements. The opinions expressed
in these chapters are not necessarily those of the Editor or the publisher.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-1-84855-216-6

Awarded in recognition of
Emerald’s production
department’s adherence to
quality systems and processes
when preparing scholarly
journals for print
Contents

List of Contributors vii

List of Figures ix

List of Tables xi

Acknowledgments xiii

Introduction xv

1. Trends in Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture 1

2. Climate, Fish Populations, and Fisheries 9

Donald B. Olson

3. Evolution of Fisheries Statistics in the United States 21

Mark Holliday

4. The Supply of Fish and Fishery Management 53

5. Economics and Policy Options 69

6. Conclusion 89

Appendix A 95

Appendix B 139

Appendix C 143

Appendix D 147

References 149

Index 163
List of Contributors

Dr. Mark Holliday Director, NOAA Fisheries Office of Policy, United

States National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver
Spring, MD, USA
Dr. Donald B. Olson Professor of Meteorology and Physical
Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and
Atmospheric Science, University of Miami,
Miami, FL, USA
Dr. Giulio Pontecorvo Professor Emeritus, Columbia University
Graduate School of Business, New York,
NY, USA
Dr. William E. Schrank Professor Emeritus-Economics, Memorial
University of Newfoundland,
St. John’s, NL, Canada
List of Figures

Figure 3.1: Integrated U.S. Fisheries Information System.

[Adapted from NMFS (1998)]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 4.1: World catch: Anchoveta and South American
Pilchard, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Figure 4.2: Norwegian catch of Atlantic Herring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Figure 4.3: Canadian catch of Capelin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Figure 4.4: Catch of Barents Sea Capelin, 1965–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Figure A.1: Total capture fisheries, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Figure A.2: Marine catch by type, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Figure A.3: World catch of demersal species, 1950–2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Figure A.4: Catch of selected demersal species, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Figure A.5: World catch of pelagic species, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Figure A.6: World catch of small pelagics, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Figure A.7: Catch of selected small pelagics I, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Figure A.8: Catch of selected small pelagics II, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Figure A.9: World catch of miscellaneous and large pelagics,
1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Figure A.10: Map of FAO geographic regions
(with permission from FAO). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Figure A.11: Indian Ocean and total world catch, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . 132
Figure A.12: Freshwater capture fisheries, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Figure A.13: World aquaculture production, 1950–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Figure A.14: Total value of world imports of fish products,
1976–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
x List of Figures

Figure A.15: Total quantity of world imports of fish products,

1976–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Figure A.16: Real unit price: Total world imports of fish products,
1976–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Figure A.17: China and Norway trade with rest of world: Key
products, 1976–2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
List of Tables

Table 3.1: Regional implementation requirements to create a U.S.

Fisheries Information System ($ million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 3.2: Minimum commercial fishery catch and effort data
elements to be collected on every trip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Table 3.3: Additional biological and trip data needed periodically
from commercial fisheries for stock assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Table 4.1: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service expenditures,
1973–2007 nominal and real (1982–1984 ¼ 1.0). . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Table A.1: United States capture fisheries: Pacific salmon . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Table A.2: Major demersal catches, 1970 and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Table A.3: Major small pelagic catches, 1970 and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . 100
Table A.4: Major miscellaneous and large pelagic catches, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Table A.5: Marine catch of major invertebrate species, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Table A.6: World catch of miscellaneous marine fishes (mt). . . . . . . . . . . 104
Table A.7: Total capture fisheries by major country, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Table A.8: Chinese capture fisheries greater than 400,000 mt,
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Table A.9: Catch of demersal fisheries by major country, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Table A.10: Catch of small pelagics by major country, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Table A.11: Catch of miscellaneous and large pelagics by major
country 1970 and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
xii List of Tables

Table A.12: Catch of marine invertebrates by major country, 1970

and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Table A.13: Catch of miscellaneous marine species by major country,
1970 and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Table A.14: Marine capture fisheries by major area, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Table A.15: Freshwater capture fisheries by major species, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Table A.16: Freshwater capture fisheries by major country, 1970 and
2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
Table A.17: Total aquaculture production by major country, 1970
and 2005 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
Table A.18: Aquaculture production, 2005, all species valued at
W$US 2 billion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Table A.19: Chinese and world production of fish and invertebrates,
2005 (M mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Table A.20: Value of world imports of major fish products, 1976 and
2004 ($US billion, nominal, and real) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Table A.21: Quantity of world imports of major fish products, 1976
and 2004 (mt) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Table A.22: Value of imports and exports of fish products by major
country, 1976 and 2004 ($US billion, nominal, and real). . . . . . 121
Acknowledgments

Our greatest debts are to Dr. Donald B. Olson of the Rosenstiel School of Marine
and Atmospheric Science of the University of Miami and to Dr. Mark Holliday,
Director of the Office of Policy of NOAA/Fisheries, the United States National
Marine Fisheries Service. Dr. Olson prepared Chapter 2 and Dr. Holliday prepared
Chapter 3. We are grateful for the depth of analysis they have offered. Their
responsibilities end there. We alone are responsible for interpretations in the rest of
the book.
During the long gestation period of this book, we have had occasion to consult
with numerous colleagues on various matters relating to fisheries and the arcane art
of preparing text. We particularly want to thank Ragnar Arnason, Andrew Bakun,
Trond Bjorndal, James Carscadden, Jingting Chang, Luca Garibaldi, John Gates,
Richard Grainger, Rögnvaldur Hannesson, George Lilly, John Marra, Bruce Rettig,
Philip Rodgers, Noel Roy, Ann Shriver, John Steele, and Lena Westlund for their
unstinting help when called upon. Needless to say, we are solely responsible for the
interpretations offered here and take full responsibility for errors.
We also wish to thank our wives, Margaret and Bernice, for their patience during
the extended period while this project was underway.

Giulio Pontecorvo
William E. Schrank
Introduction

This book provides an explanation of why nations have such a poor record in their
efforts to manage the valuable fish resources of the world’s oceans. It suggests
alternative ways to deal with the fisheries management problem and notes recent
developments which point toward alternative uses for the living resources of the sea.
Underlying our analysis is the basic assumption that the management of the
world’s fisheries is primarily an economic problem subject to biological constraints.
In turn, this problem of managing a renewable resource, and our failure to solve it,
rests on the interaction of (1) the industrial organization of the world’s fishing
industry, (2) the inability, given the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the
problem, of fishery scientists to provide convincing limits to how much fish may
safely be caught, and (3) the increasing world demand in the markets for fish and fish
products in the face of restricted and volatile supply.
In an industry that is competitive on a world scale, subject to uncertain science
with variable fish stocks, affected by inadequate understanding of the variations in
the ocean environment, and facing a growing demand for fish in the face of inelastic
supply, it is highly likely that overfishing will occur. Since management failure is the
result of these complex economics and natural conditions, simplistic explanations for
management failure, such as references to the greed of fishermen or to the role of
politics, are unhelpful and, given increasing market pressure, appeals to fishermen
and fishery managers to act responsibly are likely to fail. The detailed analysis of
these core issues provides the centerpiece of this book.
For 150 years the management of fisheries has followed a cycle of optimism, with
the hope that a new approach to management will prove successful, followed by a
period of pessimism. Managers and scientists were and are continuously seeking new
theoretical and applied approaches that would correct the empirically revealed errors
of the previous management techniques and, therefore, lead to a fishing industry that
is stable, sustainable, and profitable. Over this long time period, much has been
learned about the biology of individual species of fish, less about the interaction of
species, especially predator/prey relationships, and even less about the variability in
fish stocks, the marine ecosystems, and the ocean/atmosphere system in which these
organisms live. We do not as yet adequately understand the changes in the ocean/
climate system or the dramatic natural variations in the size of fish stocks, or the
complex interactions of environment and overfishing that have driven some fish
xvi Introduction

stocks, such as Newfoundland’s northern cod, to commercial extinction. Some

relatively short-term climatic/ocean phenomena, such as the El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean have obvious effects on certain fisheries, for
example, the anchoveta fishery of western South America. Given the narrow
measurement basis on with El Niño is defined (sea surface temperature, SST), even
on this subject there is debate over the timing of the impact of El Niño on the fish.
Even less is known about the direct and indirect climatic effects on other
commercially important small schooling pelagics, for example, capelin and
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. And we do not know how changes in the
environment may influence the populations of demersal, large migratory pelagic, and
invertebrate species. Finally, little is known about: (a) longer-term variations in the
size of some fish stocks; (b) regime shifts in particular ecosystems; and (c) the stability
properties of marine ecosystems.

1. Players and Goals1

In thinking about commercial ocean fishing and its management, it is important to

differentiate among the several classes of players in the fisheries sector: fishermen,
fish processors and marketers, regulatory agencies, communities, conservation
groups, fishery biologists, economists, consumers and the different interests and
objectives they argue for, and how their positions have changed over time. These
differences are crucial in forming our expectations for the future of the resources in
the food chain in the world’s oceans.
Also, one must keep in mind that, prior to substantive human fishing effort,
variable stocks of fish lived in a variable ocean environment, and this is still so.
Therefore any existing status quo in the sea has a limited time horizon.
In general, and in no particular order of importance, the special interests are:
1. In nation states with a market economy, the economic agents using ocean fish
resources tend to be financially weak and like other private sector agents they
focus on the present rather than the future. While they may wish to ‘‘conserve,’’
they cannot. In other economies administrative pressure to produce more fish

1. For an interesting, narrowly focused discussion of a local fishery, Monterey’s sardine (California
pilchard) fishery, see Chiang (2008). Chiang considers the rise and fall of the famous fishery, conflicts
among fishermen (of different locations, races, national origin, gear types, union and nonunion), conflicts
between fishermen and fish processors, conflicts over the final product (reduction for fertilizer vs. canned
sardines for human consumption), methods of circumventing fishery regulations, under reporting of
catches, conflicts among those who believed that overfishing led to the decline of the sardine and those who
blamed natural (environmental) effects, abortive attempts by the California Fish and Game Commission
to limit fishing effort, conflicts between federal and state governments, conflicts among those who believed
in conservation versus those who believed that supplies of sardines were unlimited, and processors’ attacks
on what they called ‘‘pseudoscientific’’ justifications for limiting catches. The world’s current and past
battles over fisheries all appear here in microcosm.
 Introduction xvii

yields the same result, an excessive focus on the amount of the catch in the current
time period.
2. A primary objective of conservationists/environmentalists is to maintain the status
quo in the structure of ocean ecosystems. In some instances, they have obtained
legislation aimed at returning conditions to the status quo ante, that is, requiring
the restoration of stocks or ecosystems. This legislation imposes a de jure
condition on fisheries management but not necessarily on the fish. One solution to
the fishery management problem that would be acceptable to these groups is the
reduction of the fishing industry to a ‘‘small core fishery’’ (Pontecorvo & Schrank,
2001).
3. The managers/fishery biologists.
Governments first turned to biologists with an interest in ocean fish to explain
the variability in yields and to suggest ways to stabilize the catch. From these
modest efforts in the last third of the 19th century, fishery management has grown
into a complex set of national and international fishery bureaucracies (e.g., the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations — the FAO) and these
agencies are still largely dominated by fishery biologists. These entities have a
wide range of legal and consultative responsibility. They play a role along with
other interests, especially the industry, in shaping their legislative mandates and
international treaty obligations. However, they still have as their basic mandate
the health of the existing stocks of fish. As government agencies, they also have to
be concerned about their place and financing within government budgets.
4. Economists introduced serious economic analysis of fishery problems in the 1950s
when they pointed to the adverse economic results from exploiting a common
property resource. Today they also play a role in decision making within the
framework of the large government fishery agencies.
5. Consumers are concerned about the quality of output as well as the availability of
the usual array of products favored by current taste. They care about the loss of
species in the market through overfishing and natural variation. And they would
pay an unknown extra price if the industry were reduced to a ‘‘small core fishery’’
which would yield a lower level of output. In recent years, consumers have been
increasingly interested in the nutritional value of fish and fish oil.
6. The industry, either in a market economy or in part as an element in government,
has been the most important player in the set of decision-makers involved in the
regulation of fishing effort. Further, it opposes, as a threat to its income,
limitations imposed on the catch.

Two recent developments suggest the possibility of major changes in ocean

fishing:
(a) The first considers the possibility of deep ocean extensive fish farming, or ‘‘fish
ranching’’ (Marra, 2005). If this were possible, it would significantly increase the
supply of highly valued species with the resulting industry and market changes.
(b) The other is increased recognition of the importance of fish meal and fish oil in
human nutrition, the products of the large catches of small schooling pelagic
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