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Instructor’s Manual to Accompany

Introduction to
Probability Models
Ninth Edition

Sheldon M. Ross
University of California
Berkeley, California

AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON

NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
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Printed in the United States of America

06 07 08 09 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 Contents

Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Chapter 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Chapter 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Chapter 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Chapter 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Chapter 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Chapter 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Chapter 1

1. S = {( R, R), ( R, G ), ( R, B), ( G, R), ( G, G ), ( G, B), 7. If ( E ∪ F )c occurs, then E ∪ F does not occur, and
( B, R), ( B, G ), ( B, B)}. so E does not occur (and so Ec does); F does not
The probability of each point in S is 1/9. occur (and so F c does) and thus Ec and F c both
occur. Hence,
2. S = {( R, G ), ( R, B), ( G, R), ( G, B), ( B, R), ( B, G )}. ( E ∪ F )c ⊂ Ec F c .

3. S = {(e1 , e2 , . . . , en ), n ≥ 2} where ei ∈ (heads, If Ec F c occurs, then Ec occurs (and so E does not),

tails}. In addition, en = en−1 = heads and for and F c occurs (and so F does not). Hence, neither
i = 1, . . . , n − 2 if ei = heads, then ei+1 = tails. E or F occur and thus ( E ∪ F )c does. Thus,

P{4 tosses} = P{(t, t, h, h)} + P{(h, t, h, h)} Ec F c ⊂ ( E ∪ F )c

4 and the result follows.
1 1
=2 = .
2 8
8. 1 ≥ P( E ∪ F ) = P( E) + P( F ) − P( EF ).
4. (a) F ( E ∪ G )c = FEc G c .
9. F = E ∪ FEc , implying since E and FEc are disjoint
c
(b) EFG . that P( F ) = P( E) + P( FE)c .
(c) E ∪ F ∪ G.
10. Either by induction or use
(d) EF ∪ EG ∪ FG.
n
(e) EFG. ∪ Ei = E1 ∪ Ec1 E2 ∪ Ec1 Ec2 E3 ∪ · · · ∪ Ec1 · · · Ecn−1 En,
1
(f) ( E ∪ F ∪ G )c = Ec F c G c . and as each of the terms on the right side are
c c c
(g) ( EF ) ( EG ) ( FG ) . mutually exclusive:
(h) ( EFG )c . P(∪ Ei ) = P( E1 ) + P( Ec1 E2 ) + P( Ec1 Ec2 E3 ) + · · ·
i
+ P( Ec1 · · · Ecn−1 En )
3
5. . If he wins, he only wins $1, while if he loses, he ≤ P( E1 ) + P( E2 ) + · · · + P( En ). (why?)
4
loses $3. 

 i−1
 , i = 2, . . . , 7
6. If E( F ∪ G ) occurs, then E occurs and either F or G 36
11. P{sum is i } =
occur; therefore, either EF or EG occurs and so 
 13 − i
 , i = 8, . . . , 12.
36
E( F ∪ G ) ⊂ EF ∪ EG.
12. Either use hint or condition on initial outcome as:
Similarly, if EF ∪ EG occurs, then either EF or EG
occur. Thus, E occurs and either F or G occurs; and P{ E before F }
so E(F ∪ G) occurs. Hence, = P{ E before F | initial outcome is E} P( E)
EF ∪ EG ⊂ E( F ∪ G ), + P{ E before F | initial outcome is F } P( F )

which together with the reverse inequality proves + P{ E before F | initial outcome neither E
the result. or F }[1 − P( E) − P( F )]

1
2 Answers and Solutions

= 1 · P( E) + 0 · P( F ) + P{ E before F } 17. Prob{end} = 1 − Prob{continue}

= [1 − P( E) − P( F )]. = 1 − P({ H, H, H } ∪ { T, T, T })
P( E) = 1 − [Prob( H, H, H ) + Prob( T, T, T )].
Therefore, P{E before F} = .
P( E) + P( F )

1 1 1 1 1 1
13. Condition an initial toss Fair coin: Prob{end} = 1 − · · + · ·
2 2 2 2 2 2
12 3
P{win} = ∑ P{win | throw i} P{throw i}. = .
4
i =2


Now, 1 1 1 3 3 3
Biased coin: P{end} = 1 − · · + · ·
4 4 4 4 4 4
P{win| throw i } = P{i before 7} 9

= .
16
 0 i = 2, 12




 i−1
 18. Let B = event both are girls; E = event oldest is

 5+1 i = 3, . . . , 6
girl; L = event at least one is a girl.
=

 1 i = 7, 11



 P( BE) P( B) 1/4 1
 (a) P( B| E) = = = = .
 13 − i

i = 8, . . . , 10, P( E) P( E) 1/2 2
19 − 1
1 3
where above is obtained by using Problems 11 (b) P( L) = 1 − P(no girls) = 1 − = ,
4 4
and 12.
P( BL) P( B) 1/4 1
P{win} ≈ .49. P( B| L) = = = = .
P( L) P( L) 3/4 3
∞
14. P{ A wins} = ∑ P{ A wins on (2n + 1)st toss} 19. E = event at least 1 six P( E)
n=0
∞
number of ways to get E 11
= ∑ (1 − P)2n P =
number of sample pts
=
36
n=0
∞
=P ∑ [(1 − P)2 ]n D = event two faces are different P( D )
n=0
1 = 1 − Prob(two faces the same)
=P
1 − (1 − P)2 6 5 P( ED ) 10/36 1
P =1− = P( E| D ) = = = .
= 36 6 P( D ) 5/6 3
2P − P2
1
= . 20. Let E = event same number on exactly two of
2−P
P{ B wins} = 1 − P{ A wins} the dice; S = event all 3 numbers are the same;
D = event all 3 numbers are different. These
1−P
= . 3 events are mutually exclusive and define the
2−P whole sample space. Thus, 1 = P( D ) + P( S) +
P( E), P( S) = 6/216 = 1/36; for D have 6 possible
16. P( E ∪ F ) = P( E ∪ FEc ) values for first die, 5 for second, and 4 for third.
= P( E) + P( FEc )
∴ Number of ways to get D = 6 · 5 · 4 = 120.
since E and FEc are disjoint. Also,
P( D ) = 120/216 = 20/36
c
P( F ) = P( FE ∪ FE ) ∴ P( E) = 1 − P( D ) − P( S)
= P( FE) + P( FEc ) by disjointness. 20 1 5
=1− − = .
Hence, 36 36 12

P( E ∪ F ) = P( E) + P( F ) − P( EF ). 21. Let C = event person is color blind.

 Answers and Solutions 3

P(Male|C ) (f) P4,3 = P{always ahead| a, a}(4/7)(3/6)

P(C |Male) P(Male) = (2/7)[1 − P{ a, a, a, b, b, b| a, a}
=
P(C |Male P(Male) + P(C |Female) P(Female) − P{ a, a, b, b| a, a} − P{ a, a, b, a, b, b| a, a}]
.05 × .5 = (2/7)[1 − (2/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)
=
.05 × .5 + .0025 × .5
− (3/5)(2/4) − (3/5)(2/4)(2/3)(1/2)]
2500 20
= = . = 1/7.
2625 21
(g) P5,1 = P{ a, a} = (5/6)(4/5) = 2/3.
22. Let trial 1 consist of the first two points; trial 2 the (h) P5,2 = P{ a, a, a} + P{ a, a, b, a}
next two points, and so on. The probability that = (5/7)(4/6)[(3/5) + (2/5)(3/4)] = 3/7.
each player wins one point in a trial is 2p(1 − p). By the same reasoning we have that
Now a total of 2n points are played if the first
(a − 1) trials all result in each player winning one (i) P5,3 = 1/4,
of the points in that trial and the nth trial results in (j) P5,4 = 1/9.
one of the players winning both points. By inde- n−n
pendence, we obtain that (k) In all the cases above, Pn,m = .
n+n

P{2n points are needed} 25. (a) P{ pair} = P{second card is same
= (2p(1 − p)) n−1 2
( p + (1 − p) ),2
n ≥ 1. denomination as first}
= 3/51.
The probability that A wins on trial n is
(b) P{pair|different suits}
(2p(1 − p))n−1 p2 and so
P{pair, different suits}
=
∞ P{different suits}
P{ A wins} = p2 ∑ (2p(1 − p))n−1 = P{pair}/ P{different suits}
n=1
3/51
p2 = = 1/13.
= . 39/51
1 − 2p(1 − p)
    
4 48 52 39 · 38 · 37
26. P( E1 ) = = .
23. P( E1 ) P( E2 | E1 ) P( E3 | E1 E2 ) · · · P( En | E1 · · · En−1 ) 1 12 13 51 · 50 · 49
    
3 36 39 26 · 25
P( E2 | E1 ) = = .
P( E1 E2 ) P( E1 E2 E3 ) P( E1 · · · En ) 1 12 13 38 · 37
= P( E1 ) ···     
P( E1 ) P( E1 E2 ) P ( E1 · · · En−1 ) 2 24 26
P( E3 | E1 E2 ) = = 13/25.
1 12 13
= P( E1 · · · En ).
P( E4 | E1 E2 E3 ) = 1.
39 · 26 · 13
24. Let a signify a vote for A and b one for B. P( E1 E2 E3 E4 ) = .
51 · 50 · 49
(a) P2,1 = P{ a, a, b} = 1/3.
27. P( E1 ) = 1
(b) P3,1 = P{ a, a} = (3/4)(2/3) = 1/2. P( E2 | E1 ) = 39/51, since 12 cards are in the ace of
spades pile and 39 are not.
(c) P3,2 = P{ a, a, a} + P{ a, a, b, a}
P( E3 | E1 E2 ) = 26/50, since 24 cards are in the piles
= (3/5)(2/4)[1/3 + (2/3)(1/2)] = 1/5. of the two aces and 26 are in the other two piles.

(d) P4,1 = P{ a, a} = (4/5)(3/4) = 3/5. P( E4 | E1 E2 E3 ) = 13/49.

(e) P4,2 = P{ a, a, a} + P{ a, a, b, a} So
= (4/6)(3/5)[2/4 + (2/4)(2/3)] = 1/3. P{ each pile has an ace} = (39/51)(26/50)(13/49).
4 Answers and Solutions

28. Yes. P( A| B) > P( A) is equivalent to P( AB) > Thus,

P( A) P( B) which is equivalent to P( B| A) > P( B).
∑ P( Ei1 Ei2 · · · Eik )
29. (a) P( E| F ) = 0. i1 <···<ik
(n − k)!
(b) P( E| F ) = P( EF )/ P( F ) = P( E)/ P( F ) ≥ = ∑ n!
P( E) = .6. i1 <···<ik


n (n − k)! 1
(c) P( E| F ) = P( EF )/ P( F ) = P( F )/ P( F ) = 1. = = .
k n! k!
30. (a) P{George|exactly 1 hit}
∴ P(no one selects own hat)
P{George, not Bill}
= 1 1 1 1
P{exactly 1} = 1 − + − + · · · + (−1)n
1! 2! 3! n!
P{ G, not B}
= 1 1 1
P{ G, not B} + P{ B, not G )} = − + · · · + (−1)n .
2! 3! n!
(.4)(.3)
=
(.4)(.3) + (.7)(.6)
33. Let S = event student is sophomore; F = event
= 2/9. student is freshman; B = event student is boy;
(b) P{ G |hit} G = event student is girl. Let x = number of
= P{ G, hit}/ P{hit} sophomore girls; total number of students =
16 + x.
= P{ G }/ P{hit} = .4/[1 − (.3)(.6)]
10 10 4
= 20/41. P( F ) = P( B) = P( FB) =
16 + x 16 + x 16 + x
4 10
31. Let S = event sum of dice is 7; F = event first = P( FB) = P( F ) P( B) = ·
16 + x 16 + x
die is 6. 10
1 1 P( F | S) ⇒ x = 9.
P( S) = P( FS) = P( F | S) = 16 + x
6 36 P( S)
1/36 1 34. Not a good system. The successive spins are
= = .
1/6 6 independent and so
P {11th is red|1st 10 black} = P {11th is red}
32. Let Ei = event person i selects own hat.

P (no one selects own hat) 18
=P = .
38
= 1 − P( E1 ∪ E2 ∪ · · · ∪ En )

35. (a) 1/16
= 1 − ∑ P( Ei1 ) − ∑ P( Ei1 Ei2 ) + · · · (b) 1/16
i1 i 1 <i 2
 (c) 15/16, since the only way in which the
+(−1)n+1 P( E1 E2 En ) pattern H, H, H, H can appear before the pat-
tern T, H, H, H is if the first 4 flips all land
= 1 − ∑ P( Ei1 ) − ∑ P( Ei1 Ei2 ) heads.
i1 i 1 <i 2
− ∑ P( Ei1 Ei2 Ei3 ) + · · ·
36. Let B = event marble is black; Bi = event that box
i 1 <i 2 <i 3
n i is chosen. Now
+ (−1) P( E1 E2 En ).
B = BB1 ∪ BB2 P( B) = P( BB1 ) + P( BB2 )
Let k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n}. P( Ei1 EI2 Eik ) = number of
ways k specific men can select own hats ÷ = P( B| B1 ) P( B1 ) + P( B| B2 ) P( B2 )
total number of ways hats can be arranged
= (n − k)!/n!. Number of terms in summation 1 1 2 1 7
= · + · = .
Σi1 <i2 <···<ik = number of ways to choose k vari- 2 2 3 2 12


n
ables out of n variables = = n!/k!(n − k)!. 37. Let W = event marble is white.
k
 Answers and Solutions 5
P(W | B1 ) P( B1 ) 41. Note first that since the rat has black parents and
P( B1 |W ) =
P(W | B1 ) P( B1 ) + P(W | B2 ) P( B2 ) a brown sibling, we know that both its parents
1 1 1 are hybrids with one black and one brown gene
· 3 (for if either were a pure black then all their off-
= 2 2 = 4 = .
1 1 1 1 5 5 spring would be black). Hence, both of their off-
· + · spring’s genes are equally likely to be either black
2 2 3 2 12
or brown.
38. Let TW = event transfer is white; TB = event trans-
fer is black; W = event white ball is drawn from (a) P(2 black genes | at least one black gene)
urn 2.
P(W | TW ) P( TW ) P(2 black genes)
P( TW |W ) = =
P(W | TW ) P( TW ) + P(W | TB ) P( TB ) P(at least one black gene)

2 2 4 1/4
· = = 1/3
7 3 21 4 3/4
= = = .
2 2 1 1 5 5
· + · (b) Using the result from part (a) yields the follo-
7 3 7 3 21 wing:
39. Let W = event woman resigns; A, B, C are events
P(2 black genes | 5 black offspring)
the person resigning works in store A, B, C,
respectively. P(2 black genes)
=
P ( C |W ) P(5 black offspring)
P (W | C ) P ( C ) 1/3
= =
P (W | C ) P ( C ) + P (W | B ) P ( B ) + P (W | A ) P ( A ) 1(1/3) + (1/2)5 (2/3)
100
.70 × = 16/17
= 225
100 75 50
.70 × + .60 × + .50
225 225 225 where P(5 black offspring) was computed by con-
70 140 1 ditioning on whether the rat had 2 black genes.
= = .
225 225 2

40. (a) F = event fair coin flipped; U = event two- 42. Let B = event biased coin was flipped; F & U
headed coin flipped. (same as above).
P( H | F ) P( F )
P( F | H ) = P (U | H )
P ( H | F ) P ( F ) + P ( H |U ) P (U )
1 1 1 P ( H |U ) P (U )
· =
2 2 1 P ( H |U ) P (U ) + P ( H | B ) P ( B ) + P ( H | F ) P ( F )
= = 4 = .
1 1 1 3 3 1 1
· +1· 1·
2 2 2 4 3 4
= = 3 = .
P( HH | F ) P( F ) 1 3 1 1 1 9 9
(b) P( F | HH ) = 1· + · + ·
P( HH | F ) P( F ) + P( HH |U ) P(U ) 3 4 3 2 3 12
1 1 1
· 1
= 4 2 = 8 = . i
1 1 1 5 5 43. Let i = event coin was selected; P( H |i ) = .
· +1· 10
4 2 2 8
5 1
(c) P( F | HHT ) P( H |5) P(5) ·
P(5| H ) = = 10 10
P( HHT | F ) P( F ) 10 10
= 1 1
P( HHT | F ) P( F ) + P( HHT |U ) P(U ) ∑ P( H |i)P(i) ∑ 10 · 10
i =1 i =1
P( HHT | F ) P( F )
= = 1, 5 1
P( HHT | F ) P( F ) + 0 = = .
10 11
since the fair coin is the only one that can show ∑i
tails. i =1
6 Answers and Solutions

44. Let W = event white ball selected. and so,

P (W | T ) P ( T ) 1
P ( T |W ) = P{ A to be executed| X = B} =
P (W | T ) P ( T ) + P (W | H ) P ( H ) 3
1 1 Similarly,
· 12
= 5 2 = .
1 1 5 1 1
· + ·
37 P{ A to be executed| X = C } =
5 2 12 2 3
and thus the jailer’s reasoning is invalid. (It is true
45. Let Bi = event ith ball is black; Ri = event ith ball that if the jailer were to answer B, then A knows
is red. that the condemned is either himself or C, but it is
twice as likely to be C.)
P( R2 | B1 ) P( B1 )
P( B1 | R2 ) =
P( R2 | B1 ) P( B1 ) + P( R2 | R1 ) P( R1 ) 47. 1. 0 ≤ P( A| B) ≤ 1
r b P( SB) P( B)
· P( S| B) = = =1
= b+r+c b+r 2.
P( B) P( B)
r b r+c r
· + · 3. For disjoint events A and D
b+r+c b+r b+r+c b+r
rb P(( A ∪ D ) B)
= P( A ∪ D | B) =
rb + (r + c)r P( B)
b P( AB ∪ DB)
= . =
b+r+c P( B)
P( AB) + P( DB)
46. Let X ( = B or = C ) denote the jailer’s answer to =
P( B)
prison A. Now for instance, = P( A| B) + P( D | B)
P{ A to be executed| X = B} Direct verification is as follows:
P { A to be executed, X = B}
= P( A| BC ) P(C | B) + P( A| BC c ) P(C c | B)
P { X = B}
P { Ato be executed} P { X = B| A to be executed P( ABC ) P( BC ) P( ABC c ) P( BC c )
= = +
P { X = B} P( BC ) P( B) P( BC c ) P( B)
(1/3) P { X = B| A to be executed} P( ABC ) P( ABC c )
= . = +
1/2 P( B) P( B)
P( AB)
=
P( B)
Now it is reasonable to suppose that if A is to be
executed, then the jailer is equally likely to answer = P( A| B)
either B or C. That is,
1
P{ X = B| A to be executed} =
2
Chapter 2




2


3
7 10 14 3 1 5 3 1 200
1. P{ X = 0} = = . 10. 1 − − = .
2 2 30 2 6 6 3 6 216

2. −n, −n + 2, −n + 4, . . . , n − 2, n. 3
11. .
8
1
3. P{ X = −2} = = P{ X = 2}

4


5
4 5 1 2 5 1 10 + 1 11
1 12. + = = .
P{ X = 0} = . 4 3 3 5 3 243 243
2
10

10
10 1
4. (i) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 13. ∑ 1 2
.
i=7
(ii) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

6
(iii) 2, 3, . . . , 11, 12. 1 1
14. P{ X = 0} = P{ X = 6} = =
(iv) −5, −4, . . . , 4, 5. 2 64

6
1 6
5. P{max = 6} =
11
= P{min = 1} P{ X = 1} = P{ X = 5} = 6 =
36 2 64


6
1 6 1 15
P{max = 5} = = P{min = 2} P{ X = 2} = P{ X = 4} = =
4 2 2 64


6
7 6 1 20
P{max = 4} = = P{min = 3} P{ X = 3} = = .
36 3 2 64
5
P{max = 3} = = P{min = 4} P{ X = k}
36 15.
1 P{ X = k − 1}
P{max = 2} = = P{min = 5}
12 n! pk (1 − p )n−k
1 (n − k)! k!
P{max = 1} = = P{min = 6}. =
36 n! pk−1 (1 − p )n−k+1
(n − k + 1)!(k − 1)!
6. ( H, H, H, H, H ), p5 if p = P {heads} . n−k+1 p
= .
k 1−p
7. p(0) = (.3)3 = .027
Hence,
p(1) = 3(.3) (.7) = .189
2
P { X = k}
≥ 1 ↔ (n − k + 1) p > k(1 − p)
p(2) = 3(.3)(.7) = .441 2 P { X = k − 1}
↔ (n + 1) p ≥ k.
p(3) = (.7)3 = .343.
The result follows.
1 1
8. p(0) = , p(1) = . 16. 1 − (.95)52 − 52(.95)51 (.05).
2 2
1 1 1 n!
9. p(0) = , p(1) = , p(2) = , 17. Follows since there are
x 1 ! · · · xr !
permutations of
2 10 5
1 1 n objects of which x1 are alike, x2 are alike, . . . , xr
p(3) = , p(3.5) = . are alike.
10 10

7
8 Answers and Solutions

18. Follows immediately. (b) P { X = 3} = p3 + (1 − p)3 .

P { X = 4}
19. P { X1 + · · · + X k = m}

 = P { X = 4, I has 2 wins in first 3 games}
n + P { X = 4, II has 2 wins in first 3 games}
= ( p 1 + · · · + p k ) m ( p k +1 + · · · + pr ) n−m .
m
= 3p2 (1 − p) p + 3p(1 − p)2 (1 − p).

2
2
1 P { X = 5}
5! 1 3 1
20. = .054. = P {each player has 2 wins in the first
2!1!2! 5 10 2
4 games}

5
4


3
2
3 3 7 5 3 7
21. 1− −5 − . = 6p2 (1 − p)2 .
10 10 10 2 10 10  
E [ X ] = 3 p3 + (1 − p)3 + 12p(1 − p)
1  
22. .
32 p2 + (1 − p)2 + 30p2 (1 − p)2 .

23. In order for X to equal n, the first n − 1 flips Differentiating and setting equal to 0 shows
that the maximum is attained when p = 1/2
must have r − 1 heads, and then nth flip must land
heads. By independence the desired probability is
27. P {same number of heads} = ∑ P{ A = i, B = i }
thus

     i
n − 1 r−1 k k n−k
p (1 − p)n−r xp. =∑ (1/2) (1 / 2 )n−k
r−1 i
i  
i

k n−k
=∑ (1/2)n
24. It is the number of tails before heads appears for i 
i i
 
the rth time. k n−k
=∑ (1/2)n
k − i i
i 
25. A total of 7 games will be played if the first 6 result n
= (1/2)n .
in 3 wins and 3 losses. Thus, k
 
6 Another argument is as follows.
P {7 games} = p3 (1 − p)3 .
3
P{# heads of A = # heads of B}
Differentiation yields that = P{# tails of A = # heads of B}
d  
P {7} = 20 3p2 (1 − p)3 − p3 3(1 − p)2 since coin is fair
dp
= 60p2 (1 − p)2 [1 − 2p] . = P{k − # heads of A = # heads of B}
Thus, the derivative is zero when p = 1/2. Taking = P{k = total # heads}.
the second derivative shows that the maximum is
attained at this value. 28. (a) Consider the first time that the two coins give
different results. Then
26. Let X denote the number of games played. P { X = 0} = P {(t, h)|(t, h) or (h, t)}
p(1 − p)
(a) P { X = 2} = p2 + (1 − p)2 = = 12
2p(1 − p)
P { X = 3} = 2p(1 − p)
 (b) No, with this procedure
E [ X ] = 2 p2 + (1 − p)2 + 6p(1 − p)
= 2 + 2p(1 − p). P { X = 0} = P {first flip is a tail} = 1 − p.
Since p(1 − p) is maximized when p = 1/2,
we see that E[ X ] is maximized at that value 29. Each flip after the first will, independently, result
of p. in a changeover with probability 1/2. Therefore,
 Answers and Solutions 9
 
n−1 38. c = 2.
P {k changeovers} = (1 / 2 )n−1 .
k
31
39. E [ X ] = .
P {X = i} e−λ λ i /i! 6
30. = −λ i −1 = λ /i.
P { X = i − 1} e λ /(i − 1)!
40. Let X denote the number of games played.
Hence, P{ X = i } is increasing for λ ≥ i and
decreasing for λ < i. P { X = 4} = p4 + (1 − p)4
P { X = 5} = P { X = 5, I wins 3 of first 4}
32. (a) .394 (b) .303 (c) .091.
+ P { X = 5, II wins 3 of first 4}
1
33. c 1 − x2 dx = 1 = 4p3 (1 − p) p + 4(1 − p)3 p(1 − p)
−1
1 P { X = 6} = P { X = 6, I wins 3 of first 5}
x3 
 + P { X = 6, II wins 3 of first 5}
c x−  =1
3 
−1
3 = 10p3 (1 − p)2 p + 10p2 (1 − p)3
c= .
4 (1 − p)
3 1
F ( y) = (1 − x2 )dx P { X = 7} = P {first 6 games are split}
4 −1

 = 20p3 (1 − p)3 .
3 y3 2
= y− + , −1 < y < 1. 7
4 3 3
E [X] = ∑ iP {X = i} .
2 i =4
34. c 4x − 2x2 dx = 1 When p = 1/2, E[ X ] = 93/16 = 5.8125.
0

c(2x2 − 2x3 /3)= 1 41. Let Xi equal 1 if a changeover results from the ith
8c/3 = 1 flip and let it be 0 otherwise. Then
n
3
c=
8
. Number of changeovers = ∑ Xi .
i =2
  3/2
1 3 3 As,
P <X< = 4x − 2x2 dx
2 2 8 1/2
E [ Xi ] = P { Xi = 1} = P {flip i − 1 = flip i }
11
= . = 2p(1 − p)
16
∞ 10 1 we see that
35. P { X > 20} = dx = .
20 x2 2 n
E[ Number of changeovers] = ∑ E [Xi ]
area of disk of radius x i =2
36. P { D ≤ x} =
area of disk of radius 1 = 2(n − 1) p(1 − p).
π x2
= = x2 42. Suppose the coupon collector has i different types.
π
Let Xi denote the number of additional coupons
37. P { M ≤ x} = P {max( X 1 , . . . , X n ) ≤ x} collected until the collector has i + 1 types. It
is easy to see that the Xi are independent geomet-
= P { X1 ≤ x, . . . , X n ≤ x} ric random variables with respective parameters
n (n − i)/n, i = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1. Therefore,
= ∏ P { Xi ≤ x}

n−1 n−1 n−1
i =1
∑ ∑ Xi = ∑ ∑ [ Xi ] = ∑ n/(n − i )
= xn . i =0 i =0 i =0
n
d = n ∑ 1/ j.
f M ( x) = P { M ≤ x} = nxn−1 . j=1
dx
10 Answers and Solutions

n k
43. (a) X = ∑ Xi . E[ X ] = ∑ (rpi − 1 + (1 − pi )r ) = r − k
i =1 i =1
k
(b) E [ Xi ] = P { Xi = 1}
+ ∑ ( 1 − p i )r
= P{red ball i is chosen before all n i =1
black balls} Another way to solve this problem is to let Y denote
= 1/(n + 1) since each of these n + 1 the number of boxes having at least one key, and
balls is equally likely to be the then use the identity X = r − Y, which is true since
one chosen earliest only the first key put in each box does not result in
k
Therefore, a collision. Writing Y = ∑ I { Ni > 0} and taking
n i =1
E [X] = ∑ E [Xi ] = n/(n + 1). expectations yields that
i =1
k

44. (a) Let Yi equal 1 if red ball i is chosen after the

E [ X ] = r − E [Y ] = r − ∑ [ 1 − ( 1 − p i )r ]
i =1
first but before the second black ball, k
i = 1, . . . , n. Then = r−k+ ∑ ( 1 − p i )r
n i =1
Y = ∑ Yi .
∞
i =1
46. Using that X = ∑ In, we obtain
(b) E [Y i ] = P { Y i = 1 } n=1
= P{red ball i is the second chosen from ∞ ∞
a set of n + 1 balls} E[ X ] = ∑ E[ In ] = ∑ P{X ≥ n}
n=1 n=1
= 1/(n + 1) since each of the n+1 is
equally likely to be the second one Making the change of variables m = n − 1 gives
∞ ∞
chosen.
Therefore,
E[ X ] = ∑ P{ X ≥ m + 1} = ∑ P{ X > m}
m=0 m=0

E[Y ] = n/(n + 1). 47. Let Xi be 1 if trial i is a success and 0 otherwise.

(c) Answer is the same as in Problem 41.
(a) The largest value is .6. If X1 = X2 = X3 , then
(d) We can let the outcome of this experiment
be the vector ( R1 , R2 , . . . , Rn ) where Ri is the 1.8 = E[ X ] = 3E[ X 1 ] = 3P{ X 1 = 1};
number of red balls chosen after the (i − 1)st and so
but before the ith black ball. Since all orderings
of the n + m balls are equally likely it follows P{ X = 3} = P{ X1 = 1} = .6.
that all different orderings of R1 , . . . , Rn will That this is the largest value is seen by
have the same probability distribution. Markov’s inequality which yields that
For instance, P{ X ≥ 3} ≤ E[ X ]/3 = .6.
P { R1 = a, R2 = b} = P { R2 = a, R1 = b}.
(b) The smallest value is 0. To construct a proba-
From this it follows that all the Ri have the bility scenario for which P{ X = 3} = 0 let U
same distribution and thus the same mean. be a uniform random variable on (0, 1), and
define
45. Let Ni denote the number of keys in box i, 1 if U ≤ .6
X1 =
i = 1, . . . , k. Then, with X equal to the num- 0 otherwise
k 1 if U ≥ .4
ber of collisions we have that X = ∑ ( Ni − X2 =
0 otherwise
i =1
k 1 if either U ≤ .3 or U ≥ .7
+ X3 = .
1) = ∑ ( Ni − 1 + I { Ni = 0}) where I { Ni = 0} 0 otherwise
i =1 It is easy to see that
is equal to 1 if Ni = 0 and is equal to 0 otherwise.
Hence, P{ X1 = X2 = X3 = 1} = 0.
 Answers and Solutions 11
1 a ∞
48. .
3 55. 1 = f ( x)dx + f ( x)dx
0 a
49. E[ X 2 ] − ( E[ X ])2 = Var( X ) = E( X − E[ X ])2 ≥ 0. a
Equality when Var( X ) = 0, that is, when X is ≤ cdx + P{ X > a}
constant. 0
≤ ac + P{ X > a}.
50. Var(cX ) = E[(cX − E[cX ])2 ]
56. Let X j equal 1 if there is a type i coupon in the
= E[c2 ( X − E( X ))2 ] collection, and let it be 0 otherwise. The number of
n
= c2 Var( X ). distinct types is X = ∑ Xi .
i =1
Var(c + X ) = E[(c + X − E[c + X ])2 ]
n n n
= E[( X − E[ X ])2 ] E[ X ] = ∑ E[Xi ] = ∑ P{Xi = 1} = ∑ (1 − pi )k
i =1 i =1 i =1
= Var( X ).
To compute Cov( Xi , X j ) when i = j, note that Xi X j
r is either equal to 1 or 0 if either Xi or X j is equal to
51. N = ∑ X j where Xi is the number of flips between 0, and that it will equal 0 if there is either no type i
i =1
or type j coupon in the collection. Therefore,
the (i − 1)st and ith head. Hence, Xi is geometric
with mean 1/ p. Thus, P{ Xi X j = 0} = P{ Xi = 0} + P{ X j = 0}
r
r − P{ Xi = X j = 0}
E[ N ] = ∑ E[ X i ] = .
p
i =1 = ( 1 − pi )k + ( 1 − p j )k
n −(1 − pi − p j )k
52. (a) .
n+1
Consequently, for i = j
(b) 0.
(c) 1. Cov( Xi , X j ) = P{ Xi X j = 1} − E[ Xi ] E[ X j ]

2 = 1 − [(1 − pi )k + (1 − p j )k
1 1 1
53. , − . −(1 − pi − p j )k ] − (1 − pi )k
n+1 2n + 1 n+1
(1 − p j )k
54. (a) Using the fact that E[ X + Y ] = 0 we see that
0 = 2p(1, 1) − 2p(−1, −1) Because Var( Xi ) = (1 − pi )k [1 − (1 − pi )k ]
we obtain
which gives the result.
n
(b) This follow since Var( X ) = ∑ Var(Xi ) + 2 ∑ ∑ Cov(Xi , X j )
i =1 i< j
0 = E[ X − Y ] = 2p(1, −1) − 2p(−1, 1).
n
(c) Var( X ) = E[ X 2 ] = 1. = ∑ ( 1 − pi )k [ 1 − ( 1 − pi )k ]
i =1
(d) Var(Y ) = E[Y 2 ] = 1.
+ 2 ∑ ∑ [1 − [(1 − pi )k
(e) Since j i< j
1 = p(1, 1) + p(−1, 1) + p(1, −1) + p(−1, 1) + ( 1 − p j )k − ( 1 − pi − p j )k ]
= 2p(1, 1) + 2p(1, −1)
− ( 1 − pi )k ( 1 − p j )k .
we see that if p = 2p(1, 1) then
1 − p = 2p(1, −1). 57. It is the number of successes in n + m independent
Now, p-trials.
Cov( X, Y ) = E[ XY ]
58. Let Xi equal 1 if both balls of the ith withdrawn
= p(1, 1) + p(−1, −1) pair are red, and let it equal 0 otherwise. Because
− p(1, −1) − p(−1, 1) r (r − 1 )
E[ Xi ] = P{ Xi = 1} =
= p − (1 − p) = 2p − 1. 2n(2n − 1)
12 Answers and Solutions

we have 1 e t −1
60. E[etX ] = etx dx =
n 0 t
E[ X ] = ∑ E[ Xi ] d te t − e t + 1
i =1 E[etX ] =
dt t2
r (r − 1 )
=
(4n − 2) d2 [t2 (te 2 + et − et ) − 2t(te t − et + 1)]
E[etX ] =
dt 2 t4
Because
t2 et − 2(te t − e t + 1)
r(r − 1)(r − 2)(r − 3) = .
E[ Xi X j ] = t3
2n(2n − 1)(2n − 2)2n − 3)
To evaluate at t = 0, we must apply l’Hospital’s
For Var( X ) use rule.

Var( X ) = ∑ Var( Xi ) + 2 ∑ Cov( Xi , X j ) This yields

i i< j
= n Var( X1 ) + n(n − 1) Cov( X1 , X2 ) tet + et − et et 1
E[ X ] = lim = lim =
t=0 2t t=0 2 2
where
2tet + t2 et − 2tet − 2et + 2et
E[ X 2 ] = lim
Var( X1 ) = E[ X1 ](1 − E[ X1 ]) t=0 3t2
r(r − 1)(r − 2)(r − 3) et 1
Cov( X1 , X2 ) = = lim = .
2n(2n − 1)(2n − 2)(2n − 3) t=0 3 3

2
− ( E[ X1 ])2 1 1 1
Hence, Var( X ) = − = .
3 2 12
59. (a) Use the fact that F ( Xi ) is a uniform (0, 1) ran-
dom variable to obtain that 1 t
61. φ(t) = (e + e2t + e3t ).
3
p = P{ F ( X1 ) < F ( X2 ) > F ( X3 ) < F ( X4 )}
= P{U1 < U2 > U3 < U4 } 62. E[eαλX ] = eαλx λe−λx dx =
1
1 −α
where the Ui , i = 1, 2, 3, 4, are independent
uniform (0, 1) random variables. Therefore,
1 1 x2 1 1
(b) p = dx4 dx3 dx2 dx1 P=− ln(1−α ).
0 x1 0 x3
αλ
1 1 x2 The inequality ln(1 − x) ≤ − x shows that
= (1 − x3 )dx3 dx2 dx1 P ≥ 1/λ.
0 x1 0
1 1 ∞
= ( x2 − x22 /2)dx2 dx1
0 x1 63. φ(t) = ∑ etn (1 − p)n−1 p
n=1
1 ∞
= (1/3 − x21 /2 + x31 /6)dx1
0 = pet ∑ ((1 − p)et )n−1
n=1
= 1/3 − 1/6 + 1/24 = 5/24 pet
= .
(c) There are 5 (of the 24 possible) orderings such 1 − (1 − p)et
that X1 < X2 > X3 < X4 . They are as follows:
64. (See Section 2.3 of Chapter 5.)
X2 > X4 > X3 > X1
X2 > X4 > X1 > X3 n n
X2 > X1 > X4 > X3 65. Cov( X i , X j ) = Cov(µi + ∑ aik Zk , µ j + ∑ a jt Zt )
k=1 t=1
X4 > X2 > X3 > X1 n n
X4 > X2 > X1 > X3 = ∑ ∑ Cov(a jk Zk , a jt Zt )
t=1 k=1
 Answers and Solutions 13
n n
since the ith ball is equally likely to
= ∑ ∑ aik a jt Cov(Zk , Zt ) be either of the n + m balls, and so
t=1 k=1 n
n E[ X i ] = P{ Xi = 1} =
n+m
= ∑ aik a jk n
k=1
X= ∑ Yi
where the last equality follows since i =1
n

1 if k = t
E[ X ] = ∑ E [Y i ]
Cov( Zk , Zt ) = . i =1
0 if k = t n


= ∑ P{ith white ball is selected}
  i =1
 X + · · · + Xn − nµ  n
66. P  1  >∈ k nk
n  = ∑ n + m = n + m.
i =1
= P {| X1 + · · · + Xn − nµ | > n ∈}
72. For the matching problem, letting
≤ Var { X1 + · · · + Xn } /n ∈ 2 2 X = X1 + · · · + XN
where
= nσ 2 /n2 ∈2 
1 if ith man selects his own hat
Xi =
→ 0 as n → ∞. 0 otherwise,
we obtain
2 N
67. P {5 < X < 15} ≥ .
5 Var( X ) = ∑ Var(Xi ) + 2 ∑ ∑ Cov(Xi , X j ).
i =1 i< j
2 Since P{ Xi = 1} = 1/ N, we see
68. (i) P { X1 + · · · + X10 > 15} ≤ .
3



1 1 N−1
5 Var( Xi ) = 1− = .
(ii) P { X1 + · · · + X10 > 15} ≈ 1 − Φ √ . N N N2
10
Also

 Cov( X i , X j ) = E[ X i X j ] − E[ X i ] E[ X j ].
1
69. Φ(1) − Φ = .1498.
2 Now,


1if the ith and jth men both select
70. Let Xi be Poisson with mean 1. Then
Xi X j = their own hats
  
 0 otherwise,
n n
nk
P ∑ Xi ≤ n = e−n ∑ .
1 k=0
k! and thus
n
E[ X i X j ] = P{ X i = 1, X j = 1}
But for n large ∑ xi − n has approximately a nor- = P{ Xi = 1} P{ X j = 1| Xi = 1}
1
mal distribution with mean 0, and so the result = 1 1 .
follows. N N−1



 Hence,
n m n+m
2
71. (i) P { X = i } =
i k−i k Cov( X i , X j ) =
1
−
1
= 2
1
N ( N − 1) N N ( N − 1)
i = 0, 1, . . . , min(k, n).
and
k

N − N
(ii) X = ∑ Xi Var( X ) =
N
1 +2 1
2 N 2 ( N − 1)
i =1
= N−1 + 1
K
kn N N
E[ X ] = ∑ E[ X i ] = n + m = 1.
i =1
14 Answers and Solutions

73. As Ni is a binomial random variable with para- (iii) It is easy to see that the random variables
meters (n, Pi ), we have (i) E[ Ni ] = nP ji (ii) Var( Xi ) I1 , I2 , . . . , In are independent. For instance, for
= nPi = (1 − Pi ); (iii) for i = j, the covariance of j<k
Ni and N j can be computed as:
 P{ I j = 1/ I k = 1} = P{ I j = 1},
Cov( N i , N j ) = Cov ∑ Xk , ∑ Yk , since knowing that Xk is the largest of
k k X1 , . . . , X j , . . . , Xk clearly tells us nothing
where Xk (Yk ) is 1 or 0, depending upon whether about whether or not X j is the largest of
or not outcome k is type i ( j). Hence, X1 , . . . , X j . Hence,s
Cov( N i , N j ) = ∑ ∑ Cov(Xk , Y
). n n n


1 j−1
k
Var ∑ I j = ∑ Var( I j ) = ∑ .
j=1
j j
Now for k =
, Cov( Xk , Y
) = 0 by independence 1 1

of trials and so
(iv) P{ N > n}
Cov( N i , N j ) = ∑ Cov( X k , Yk )
k 1
= P{ X1 is the largest of X1 , . . . , Xn } = .
= ∑ ( E[ X k Yk ] − E[ X k ] E[Y k ]) n
k Hence,
= − ∑ E[ X k ] E[Y k ] (since Xk Yk = 0) ∞ ∞
1
k E[ N ] = ∑ P{ N > n} = ∑ n
= ∞.
= − ∑ Pi Pj n=1 n=1
k
= −nPi Pj . 75. (i) Knowing the values of N1 , . . . , N j is equiva-
(iv) Letting lent to knowing the relative ordering of the

1, if no type i’s occur elements a1 , . . . , a1 . For instance, if N1 = 0,
Yi = N2 = 1, N3 = 1 then in the random permu-
0, otherwise,
tation a2 is before a3 , which is before a1 . The
we have that the number of outcomes that never
r independence result follows for clearly the
occur is equal to ∑ Yi and thus, number of a1 , . . . , a1 that follow ai+1 does not
1 probabilistically depend on the relative order-

r r ing of a1 , . . . , ai .
E ∑ Yi = ∑ E [Y i ] 1
1 1 (ii) P{ N i = k} = , k = 0, 1, . . . , i − 1
r i
= ∑ P{outcomes i does not occur} which follows since of the elements
1 a1 , . . . , ai+1 the element ai+1 is equally
r
= ∑ (1 − Pi )n . likely to be first or second or . . . or (i + 1)st .
i −1
1 1 i−1
(iii) E[ N i ] =
i ∑k= 2
74. (i) As the random variables are independent, k=0
identically distributed, and continuous, it fol-
i −1
1 (i − 1)(2i − 1)
lows that, with probability 1, they will all
have different values. Hence the largest of
E[ N i2 ] =
i ∑ k2 = 6
k=0
X1 , . . . , Xn is equally likely to be either X1 or
X2 . . . or Xn . Hence, as there is a record at time and so
n when Xn is the largest value, it follows that (i − 1)(2i − 1) (i − 1)2
Var( N i ) = −
1 6 4
P{a record occurs at n} = . i2 − 1
n = .
 12
1, if a record occurs at j
(ii) Let I j =
0, otherwise. 76. E[ XY ] = µ x µ y
Then
 E[( XY )2 ] = (µ x2 + σ x2 )(µ 2y + σ y2 )
n n n
1
E ∑ I j = ∑ E[ I j ] = ∑ .
1 1 1 j Var( XY ) = E[( XY )2 ] − ( E[ XY ])2
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