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SPRINGER BRIEFS IN APPLIED SCIENCES AND
TECHNOLOGY  POLIMI SPRINGER BRIEFS

Giorgio Guariso
Marialuisa Volta Editors

Air Quality
Integrated
Assessment
A European
Perspective
SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences
and Technology

PoliMI SpringerBriefs

Editorial Board
Barbara Pernici, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Stefano Della Torre, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Bianca M. Colosimo, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Tiziano Faravelli, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Roberto Paolucci, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Silvia Piardi, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11159
http://www.polimi.it
Giorgio Guariso Marialuisa Volta
•

Editors

Air Quality Integrated

Assessment
A European Perspective
Editors
Giorgio Guariso Marialuisa Volta
Politecnico di Milano Università degli Studi di Brescia
Milan Brescia
Italy Italy

ISSN 2191-530X ISSN 2191-5318 (electronic)

SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology
ISSN 2282-2577 ISSN 2282-2585 (electronic)
PoliMI SpringerBriefs
ISBN 978-3-319-33348-9 ISBN 978-3-319-33349-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-33349-6

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016951968

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017. This book is published open access.
Open Access This book is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit
to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if
changes were made.
The images or other third party material in this book are included in the work’s Creative Commons
license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if such material is not included in the work’s
Creative Commons license and the respective action is not permitted by statutory regulation, users will
need to obtain permission from the license holder to duplicate, adapt or reproduce the material.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi-
cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the
relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface

The book reports in a handy but systematic way an extended survey across many
European countries on the research activities and the current air quality plans at
regional and local level. This allowed us to develop an Integrated Assessment
Modelling (IAM) framework, to catalogue current approaches and to guide their
implementation and evolution.
Integrated Assessment (IA) air pollution tools bring together data on pollutant
sources (emission inventories), their contribution to atmospheric concentrations and
human exposure, with information on emission reduction measures and their
respective implementation costs. At the continental scale, such tools have been
developed in the recent years to tackle these issues in a structured way. At the
local/urban scale, however, only few IA systems have been developed and they
have generally been used for non-reactive species. Thus, their application to suggest
optimal policies to reduce secondary pollutants (i.e. those created in the atmosphere
through chemical reactions of primary pollutants and currently those more affecting
the air quality in European cities) has still relevant limitations.
The survey was performed within the APPRAISAL project (www.appraisal-fp7.eu)
one of the projects of the 7th EU Framework Programme that analysed the situation and
perspective of air pollution management in Europe. In particular, APPRAISAL’s
survey was aimed at understanding the degree at which the Integrated Assessment
approach to air quality problems is adopted by regional authorities, on the one side, and
researchers, on the other. More precisely, it involved the following:
• a review of the modelling methodologies in place across EU member states to
identify sources and to assess the effectiveness of emission reduction measures
at all scales (including downscaling of impacts to city level which are a main
concern with respect to compliance with the requested limit values),
• a review of the methodologies to assess the effects of local and regional
emission abatement measures on human health,
• a review of monitoring data and complementary methodologies, e.g. source
apportionment, to identify their potential synergies in a general integrated
assessment frame,

v
vi Preface

• a review of the techniques used to evaluate the robustness and uncertainties

of the assessment,
• an analysis of the emission abatement policies and measures planned at regional
and local scales,
• their synergies/trade-offs with the measures implemented at the national scales
(e.g. national emissions ceilings or national climate change programmes).
These tasks have been performed by defining a common and structured format,
i.e. by designing a database and populate it, clearly specifying the meaning of all
keywords in order to guarantee a uniform understanding across all countries and
applications. A collaborative multiple user tool has been implemented to allow all
involved agencies to fill the questionnaire through a Web application.
The project has been the result of the cooperation of 16 research groups in nine
different European countries (see Figure) with the contribution of six stakeholders
(local environmental authorities of different EU regions), and with the collaboration
of FAIRMODE (the Forum for air quality modelling in Europe, http://fairmode.jrc.
ec.europa.eu/) and NIAM (Network for Integrated Assessment Modelling, http://
www.niam.scarp.se/) initiatives.
The project lasted from 2011 to 2014 and was coordinated by the University of
Brescia, Italy.
The material produced by all the project activities is available online on the
project website. The content of this book is largely drawn from the project deliv-
erables.

Milan, Italy G. Guariso

Brescia, Italy M. Volta
Contents

1 Air Quality in Europe: Today and Tomorrow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

G. Guariso and M. Volta
2 A Framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
N. Blond, C. Carnevale, J. Douros, G. Finzi, G. Guariso, S. Janssen,
G. Maffeis, A. Martilli, E. Pisoni, E. Real, E. Turrini, P. Viaene
and M. Volta
3 Current European AQ Planning at Regional and Local Scale . . . . . . 37
C. Belis, J. Baldasano, N. Blond, C. Bouland, J. Buekers, C. Carnevale,
A. Cherubini, A. Clappier, E. De Saeger, J. Douros, G. Finzi,
E. Fragkou, C. Gama, A. Graff, G. Guariso, S. Janssen, K. Juda-Rezler,
N. Karvosenoja, G. Maffeis, A. Martilli, S. Mills, A.I. Miranda,
N. Moussiopoulos, Z. Nahorski, E. Pisoni, J.-L. Ponche,
M. Rasoloharimahefa, E. Real, M. Reizer, H. Relvas, D. Roncolato,
M. Tainio, P. Thunis, P. Viaene, C. Vlachokostas, M. Volta
and L. White
4 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Current EU Situation . . . . . . . . . . 69
C. Belis, N. Blond, C. Bouland, C. Carnevale, A. Clappier,
J. Douros, E. Fragkou, G. Guariso, A.I. Miranda, Z. Nahorski,
E. Pisoni, J.-L. Ponche, P. Thunis, P. Viaene and M. Volta
5 Two Illustrative Examples: Brussels and Porto. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
C. Carnevale, F. Ferrari, R. Gianfreda, G. Guariso, S. Janssen,
G. Maffeis, A.I. Miranda, A. Pederzoli, H. Relvas, P. Thunis,
E. Turrini, P. Viaene, P. Valkering and M. Volta
6 Conclusions: A Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
G. Guariso and M. Volta

vii
Chapter 1
Air Quality in Europe: Today
and Tomorrow

G. Guariso and M. Volta

The last “Air quality in Europe” report by the European Environmental Agency
(EEA 2015) foresees almost five millions of years of life lost (YOLL) in the 28 EU
Member States due to the high concentrations of PM2.5. YOLLs are an estimate of
the average years that a person would have lived if he or she had not died pre-
maturely, giving greater weight to deaths at a younger age and lower weight to
deaths at an older age. For the 507.4 million inhabitants of EU, this means an
average loss of more than 3 days each year.
Furthermore, speaking about the average conditions, for air quality has a limited
meaning. The situation is normally worse in highly populated areas where most
population lives and, for the same reason, emission of pollutant are higher.
Indeed, the same report, referring to 990 urban monitoring stations in 736
European cities, shows that 202 of them (27.4 %) have exceeded the limit of
35 days above 50 lg/m3 for PM10 average daily concentrations.
The situation is quite different in different EU Member States (MS) and within
each MS. Figure 1.1 shows for instance the 36-th highest daily mean and the 25 and
75 % percentiles (box limits) in each MS compared to the European limit of
50 lg/m3. As we will see in the following chapters, exact links between pollutant
concentrations and health impacts are not completely known and thus the limits
proposed by the World Health Organization are even stricter than those adopted by
EU regulations.
Figure 1.2 expresses this situation in geographical terms, showing where the
exceedance of the EU limit for PM10 is reported.
The situation is quite similar for other traditional pollutant such as NOx and only
slightly more complex for Ozone, as shown in Fig. 1.3.

G. Guariso
Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
M. Volta (&)
Università degli Studi di Brescia, Brescia, Italy
e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s) 2017 1

G. Guariso and M. Volta (eds.), Air Quality Integrated Assessment,
PoliMI SpringerBriefs, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-33349-6_1
2 G. Guariso and M. Volta

Fig. 1.1 Distributions of the 36-th highest PM10 daily value in EU MS (source EEA 2015)

Fig. 1.2 Geographical distribution of the 36-th highest PM10 daily value (source EEA 2015)
1 Air Quality in Europe: Today and Tomorrow 3

Fig. 1.3 Geographical distribution of AOT40, an indicator of air quality impacts on crops (source
EEA 2015)

Ozone forms in the atmosphere due to the interaction of other gases (such as
NOx and VOC) and of ultraviolet solar radiation. This process takes time and is
therefore naturally distributed by the movement of air masses. This tends to spread
high ozone concentrations more evenly (and limits them to southern European
countries where solar radiation is stronger).
Where this pollution comes from is slightly easier to explain. Many countries
have now emission inventories with different level of details that can be aggregated
to show the pattern of emission evolution across Europe. A graph showing this
evolution for the most common pollutant is shown in Fig. 1.4, assuming 2004
emission as 100 %. It clearly appears that sulphur oxides (SOx) have more than
halved in ten years and all the other species have also reduced in different per-
centages, being black carbon (BC) the least reduced (5 %). This results from a
complex set of actions going from the progressive abandonment of coal and oil as
fuels to turn to gas, as well as, in the recent years, to the effect of the economic
crisis that reduced industrial activities.
The above emissions decrease has not been uniformly distributed across activity
sectors. Figure 1.5 shows in fact that, while transport and industry have contributed
a lot (the emission reduction has reached more than 50 % for transport in 10 years
and that of industry is between 20 and 40 % for the different pollutants), households
and agriculture have been stationary, if not increasing. The same is true for waste
treatment, even if the contribution of this sector to the total emission budget is
small, except for CH4. Finally, the contribution of the energy sector is somehow
mixed: most pollutants have decreased (NOx, for instance, by more than 70 %)
4 G. Guariso and M. Volta

Fig. 1.4 Evolution of EU pollutant emissions through time (2004 = 100 %) (source EEA 2015)

while others, like primary PM, have slightly increased, possibly because of the
increased use of biomass burning.
When talking of a large territory (Europe, a country, a region within a country)
the link between the perceived pollution (the concentration, that causes adverse
effects) and its causes (the emission) is not straightforward. Two aspects must in
fact be considered and play an essential role in defining such a link: the meteo-
rology and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Meteorology obviously determines if a
certain emission remains more or less confined in the air above the emission source
or is dispersed far away from it. In the first case, the concentration may reach very
high values, in the second the source contribution may become negligible. Whether
in the first or in the second case (and in all intermediate situations), it depends on
the climate and orography of each specific area. Along the seashores or at the foot
of the mountains, there are always breezes that may move the air masses, while
there are flat areas where wind speed is always extremely low.
The second aspect is the chemistry of the atmosphere. Most pollutants are indeed
reactive and, when entering the atmosphere, they start combining with other
components and producing different substances. While for some pollutants, say for
instance SO2, such processes can be so slow to be negligible in most cases, for other
substances, like NOx or VOC, they take place in time of hours and thus must be
accurately considered. For instance, a component more or less relevant of PM (it
depends on the local chemistry of the atmosphere) and tropospheric ozone are
secondary pollutants, meaning that they are not directly emitted, but formed in the
atmosphere due to the specific conditions and the presence of other gases, called
1 Air Quality in Europe: Today and Tomorrow 5

Fig. 1.5 Evolution of pollutant emissions in different sectors (2004 = 100 %) (source EEA 2015)

“precursors”. Since they represent by far the most dangerous pollutant in EU today,
working for their reduction is extremely complex since the problem must be tackled
considering a large area and not a single source and that one has to operate on the
precursors, knowing that meteorology may alter the picture in different ways.
Given this complex situation, EU has issued a number of directives to define
limits concentration on ambient air and indications on how to attain such results. As
is apparent from the preamble to Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC (AQD),
6 G. Guariso and M. Volta

European air quality legislation puts the main emphasis on protecting human health
and the environment as a whole and stresses that “it is particularly important to
combat emissions of pollutants at source and to identify and implement the most
effective emission reduction measures at local, national and Community level.”
These basic principles have already been formulated in the former so-called air
quality framework directive (96/62/EC) and its daughter directives (1999/30/EC,
2000/69/EC, 2002/3/EC, 2004/1 007/EC).
The set of actions foreseen by the current legislation (CLE) is expected to
continue the reduction of emissions of the past decade and thus to bring a general
improvement for the decade to come. Despite this, some urban areas and some
regions will still struggle with severe air quality problems and related health effects.
These areas are often characterized by specific environmental and anthropogenic
factors and will require ad hoc additional local actions to complement medium and
long term national and EU-wide strategies to reach EU air quality objectives. At the
same time, these urban areas are among the territories where most energy is con-
sumed and most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted. The reviews of the
Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Amann et al. 2011; Kiesewetter et al. 2013)
have used the European air pollution model GAINS to study the trends of com-
pliance evolution from the base year 2010–2025 (assuming current legislation
only), the improvement for a 2025 scenario and the further compliance achieved in
2030 by implementing all technical measures (Maximum Technically Feasible
emission Reductions, MTFR). The assessment of compliance of the daily PM10
exceedances limit value with respect to the current Ambient Air Quality Directive is
shown in Fig. 1.6.
Some important observations can be derived from these figures.
Comparing the 2010 map with the 2025 CLE case, it clearly appears the move
away from a general picture of non-compliance (2010) to few limited remaining
areas of non-compliance. European wide measures (already mandated) will deter-
mine a significant improvement in compliance especially in the old EU-15 Member
States. What is also clear by comparing the 2025 CLE with the 2025 A5 (defined as
‘central policy scenario’) is the limited potential of further EU-wide measures to
improve compliance; this is further underlined by the 2030 MTFR scenario, that
shows still various areas of uncertain or unlikely compliance even when adopting
all the available abatement technologies.
Introducing tougher European-wide measures to address residual non-
compliance confined to 10 % of the urban zones in Europe would likely be sig-
nificantly more costly than directly addressing these areas with specifically
designed measures based on bottom-up Integrated Assessment (IA) approach using
regional/local data. In this regard, regional IA software tools such as RIAT
(Carnevale et al. 2012), LEAQ (Zachary et al. 2011), etc. with their ability to
identify cost-optimised local strategies are already available to quantify the
cost-effective split between further European wide measures and regional/local
measures. They will inevitably find wider application and play an increasing role in
these emerging ‘discrete islands of non-compliance’.
1 Air Quality in Europe: Today and Tomorrow 7

Fig. 1.6 Evolution of PM10 compliance according to GAINS results (source Amann 2013)

These observations motivate the growing interest in IA models and tools for
local and regional scale. Their importance became apparent again in connection
with Article 22 of AQD 2008 “Postponement of attainment deadlines and
exemption from the obligation to apply certain limit values” commonly called
“notification for time extension”. For both air quality plans and time extension,
more elaborated requirements are formulated in Annex XV compared to former
regulations. The implementing decision of December 2011 (201 1/850/EU) reflects
this, clearly looking at the reporting obligations laid down there (Article 13,
Annex II, Section H, I, J and especially K) and looking at the amount of infor-
mation that has to be provided regularly (e-reporting has entered full operation
mode from January 2014). Finally, “Air quality plans” according to AQD Art.
23 are the strategic element to be developed, with the aim to reliably meet ambient
air quality standards in a cost-effective way.
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