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Amd Plagge
Public Policy for Venture Capital
WIRTSCHAFTSWISSENSCHAFT
Arnd Plagge

Public Policy for

Venture Capital
A Comparison of the United States
and Germany

With a Foreword by Prof. Dr. Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich

Deutscher Universitats-Verlag
Bibliografische Information Der Deutschen Bibliothek
Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie;
detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet iiber <http://dnb.ddb.de> abrufbar.

l.Auflage Januar2006

Alle Rechte vorbehalten

© Deutscher Universitats-Verlag/GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

Lektorat: Ute Wrasmann/Anita Wlike

Der Deutsche Unlversitats-Verlag ist ein Unternehmen von Springer Science+Business Media.
www.duv.de

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Namen im Sinne der Warenzeichen- und Markenschutz-Gesetzgebung als frei zu betrachten
waren und daher von jedermann benutzt werden diirften.

Umschlaggestaltung: Regine Zimmer, Dipl.-Designerin, Frankfurt/Main

Druck und Buchbinder: Rosch-Buch, ScheBlitz
Gedruckt auf saurefreiem und chlorfrei gebleichtem Papier
Printed in Germany

ISBN 3-8350-0217-1
Foreword

In view of Germany's lackluster economic performance during the 1990s,

i.e., at a time when the American economy was booming, a relative lack of
venture capital vis-a-vis the United States was lamented in Germany. Ger-
man government programs meant to help raise venture capital in order to fi-
nance "predominantly young, technologically innovative, unlisted small- and
medium-sized enterprises which, despite low current profitability, are consid-
ered to have a suflficiently large growth potential," (Deutsche Bundesbank)
were to a large extent unsuccessful since their inception in the 1960s. It is
well-known that Germans tend to be more risk-averse than Americans, and
it is therefore no wonder that the author of this book, Arnd Plagge, finds
that Germany's venture capital market is relatively underdeveloped when
compared to its counterpart in the United States.
There can be no doubt that due to its investment focus on innovative
start-up companies, venture capital can play an important role in fostering
economic growth and the creation of modern high-skill jobs, especially by
spurring the development of entirely new industries and products from such
diverse and dynamic realms as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology as well as
information and communication technology.
Arnd Plagge's sharp quantitative analysis of the role of venture capital
and of government programs to promote it, in both Germany and the United
States, is well founded theoretically and supplies empirical evidence on both
countries abundantly while at the same time demonstrating how international
comparisons can lead to new insights. It finds, for instance, that the venture
 Foreword

capital market in the United States has reached a self-sustaining size and
that it—in contrast to the German one—does not need much government
help.
For Germany, the author comes up with a totally surprising result. Not
the supply of venture capital, which German government programs try to
promote mainly through subsidized loans with low interest rates, is the bot-
tleneck for the growth of this market. Rather, the demand for venture capital
is wanting in Germany, as evidenced by the fact that the already available
pool of such capital is largely not being disbursed. Arnd Plagge concludes
that the German government would be well-advised to abandon its efforts
to promote the supply of venture capital and instead to begin directing its
programs at the demand side of this market.
This main result of an academic study bears an extremely important
message for pohcy makers, which for the benefit of the German economy,
the future living standard of Germany's citizens, and their own record of
performance they should not ignore.

Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich
Professor of Economics at the Freie Universitat Berlin
John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies
Preface

I began my work on venture capital in the U.S. and Germany sometime in

the year 2000, i.e., at the height of the Internet bubble, and unlike the stock
market, my interest in the subject has never again decHned. Indeed, even
though the results of my research are now available in the form of this book—
which is the culmination of research and writing that lasted several years—I
certainly do not consider it the last word on the subject and hope that more
research on venture capital and pubUc poUcies aimed at it will be published
in the future.
While writing this book, I incurred many debts, and I would Uke to thank
those who helped and guided me along the way. My earliest work on venture
capital was for a term paper I wrote under the supervision of Welf Werner at
the Freie Universitat Berlin's John F. Kennedy Institute for North American
Studies. Welf later also served on the committee that evaluated my master's
thesis on venture capital, and I thank him for his guidance and the interest
he showed.
A large part of my data collection efforts took place at the University of
Virginia while I was a visiting student there in the academic year 2001/02.
Special thanks go to Paolo Ramezzana, who agreed without hesitation to
serve as my supervisor for a rather preliminary research project "on venture
capital," and to Gordon M. Stewart, who was my academic mentor while I
was visiting UVa. I also gratefully acknowledge the support of the DAAD,
without whose scholarship I would not have been able to spend two semesters
in Charlottesville.
viii Preface

The next stage of my research again took place at the Freie Universitat
Berlin, where I started to write my master's thesis on "Public Policy for
Venture Capital in the U.S. and Germany" in mid-2003. I finished the work
in November 2003, at a time when I had already returned to the U.S. for
graduate studies at the University of Rx^chester. Also in 2003, I worked as
a research assistant for Caroline Fohlin, whose incisive questions on the ven-
ture capital markets in the U.S. and Germany helped sharpen the argument
presented in this book considerably.
The final impetus that ultimately led to the publication of this book
came from the Kennedy Institute's Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich, who was the
main advisor for my master's thesis and whose positive feedback prompted
me to pursue the topic further. His constant encouragement to turn my
thesis into a book led me to update and extend it considerably during the
summer of 2005. At this stage, I especially benefitted from access to the
archives of the German private equity and venture capital association, which
was generously provided by the BVK's Attila Dahmann.
Last but not least, special thanks go to my parents, Gertrud and Josef
Plagge, who have always supported me—both morally and financially—and
still continue to do so.

Amd Plagge
Contents

1 The nature and role of venture capital 1

1.1 Definitions 3
1.2 The venture capital cycle 8
1.3 Plan of the book 11

2 Theoretical perspectives 13
2.1 CaUbration parameters 14
2.2 Adapted endogenous growth model 19
2.3 Market failures in R&D 22
2.4 A strong case for public intervention 26

3 Venture capital in the U.S. 27

3.1 History 27
3.2 The 1990s and beyond 30
3.3 U.S. government programs 33

4 Venture capital in Germany 37

4.1 Emergence of the modern industry 38
4.2 The 1990s and beyond 45
4.3 Data problems 48
4.4 German government programs 54
X Contents

5 Comparison of the U.S. and Germany 59

5.1 Market size relative to GDP 60
5.2 Market size relative to the stock market 61
5.3 Disbursements relative to commitments 63

6 IPOs and venture capital 65

6.1 Existing viewpoints 65
6.2 New empirical evidence 82
6.2.1 Approach 82
6.2.2 OLS analysis 83
6.2.3 Time-series analysis 89

7 Supply and demand in perspective 95

7.1 Supply bottlenecks 97
7.2 Demand factors 101
7.3 Views on public policy for venture capital 105

7.4 Implications 110

8 Nothing ventured? 113

Data appendix 115

Bibliography 121
List of figures

1.1 Overview of the private equity market in the U.S 9

3.1 New U.S. venture capital funds raised (in milHon $), 1991-2003 32
3.2 U.S. venture capital under management (in million $), 1991-2003 32
3.3 U.S. venture capital disbursements (in million $), 1991-2003 . 33

4.1 New German private equity funds raised (in million € ) , 1991-
2004 47
4.2 Private equity under management in Germany (in million € ) ,
1991-2002 47
4.3 German private equity disbursements (in million € ) , 1991-2004 48
4.4 Total funds invested in Germany (in million € ) , 1991-2004 . . 49
4.5 German real venture capital disbursements (in million € ) ,
1991-2004 50
4.6 Cumulative German real venture capital (in million € ) , 1991-
2000 50

5.1 Venture capital commitments relative to current GDP, 1991-

2004 60
5.2 Venture capital disbursements relative to current GDP, 1991-
2004 61
5.3 Venture capital commitments relative to PEMC, 1991-2004 . . 62
5.4 Venture capital disbursements relative to PEMC, 1991-2004 . 62
5.5 Venture capital commitments relative to disbursements, 1991-
2004 64
 List of figures

6.1 ACF and PACF plots for venture capital commitments in the
U.S 90
6.2 ACF and PACF plots for private equity commitments in the
U.S 91
6.3 ACF and PACF plots for private equity commitments in Ger-
many 92
6.4 Actual and predicted venture capital commitments in the U.S. 93
6.5 Actual and predicted private equity commitments in the U.S. . 93
6.6 Actual and predicted private equity commitments in Germany
based on the preferred ARIMA(1,2,0) specification 94
6.7 Actual and predicted private equity commitments in Germany
based on the alternative ARIMA(0,2,1) specification 94
List of tables

3.1 Sources of U.S. venture capital funds, 1998-2003 31

4.1 Early development of the German private equity market ... 41

4.2 Pundraising and investment activity in the German private
equity market in the early and mid-1980s 42
4.3 Sources of German private equity funds, 1999-2004 49
4.4 German private equity disbursements by geographical region,
1998-2004 51
4.5 Sectoral breakdown of German private equity disbursements,
1998-2004 52
4.6 Distortion of the German fundraising data due to BVK mem-
bership changes 53

6.1 Five-year rolling averages for returns on investment in the

U.S., 1990-2003 71
6.2 Update of Black & Gilson's (1998) fundraising analysis . . . . 77
6.3 Determinants of U.S. venture capital and private equity fund-
raising levels 85
6.4 Determinants of German private equity fundraising levels . . . 87

7.1 Sources of private equity commitments in Germany according

to geographic origin, 1999-2004 100
List of abbreviations

ACF autocorrelation function

ADF Augmented Dickey-Fuller
AIC Akaike information criterion
AIM Alternative Investment Market
ARD American Research & Development
ARIMA autoregessive integrated moving average
BJTU Beteiligungskapital fiir junge Technologieunternehmen
BTU Beteiligungskapital fiir kleine Technologieunternehmen
BVK Bundesverband deutscher Kapitalbeteiligungsgesellschaften e.V.
German private equity and venture capital association
CEO chief executive officer
DAX Deutscher Aktienindex
DEC Digital Equipment Corporation
DtA Deutsche Ausgleichsbank
DM Deutsche Mark
EIF European Investment Fund
ERISA Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974
ERP European Recovery Program
EVCA European Venture Capital Association
HCCM heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix
GDP gross domestic product
IPO initial public offering
KBG Kapitalbeteiligungsgesellschaft
XVI List of abbreviations

KfW Kreditanstalt fiir Wiederaufbau

LBO leveraged buy-out
MBI management buy-in
MBO management buy-out
na not available
NASDAQ National Association of Security Dealers Automated Quotation
NPV net present value
NVCA National Venture Capital Association
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OLS ordinary least-squares
PACF partial autocorrelation function
PEMC public equity market capitalization
R&D research and development
ROI return on investment
SEA Small Business Administration
SBIC Small Business Investment Company
SBIR Small Business Innovation Research
SME small and medium-sized enterprises
S&P Standard & Poor's
tbg Technologie-Beteiligungsgesellschaft
TOU Programm zur Forderung technologieorientierter Unterneh-
mensgriindungen
UK United Kingdom
U.S. United States of America
USD United States dollars
VC venture capital
VCs venture capitaUsts
WFG Deutsche Wagnisfinanzierungs-Gesellschaft mbH

Note: 1 billion = 1,000 million.

Exchange rate used: € 1 = DM 1.95583.
Chapter 1

The nature and role of venture

capital

Venture capital has become an important engine of economic growth in the

United States over the last decades. For instance, Gompers and Lerner
(2001a: 83) state: "No matter how we look at the numbers, venture capital
activity clearly serves as an important source for economic development,
wealth and job creation, and innovation." Gilson (2002: 2) likewise asserts:

"The venture capital market and firms whose creation and early
stages were financed by venture capital are among the crown jew-
els of the American economy. Beyond representing an important
engine of macroeconomic growth and job creation, these firms
have been a major force in commerciaUzing cutting edge science,
whether through their impact on existing industries as with the
radical changes in pharmaceuticals catalyzed by venture-backed
firms' commercialization of biotechnology, or by their role in de-
veloping entirely new industries as with the emergence of the
internet and world wide web."

It is no wonder, then, that other countries try to foster their own venture
capital industries, often via extensive public programs. Germany is no ex-
ception to this rule, and the first aim of this book is to evaluate public policy
 The nature and role of venture capital

programs meant to strengthen the venture capital sector in Germany. The

second, closely related goal is to make data on the German venture capital
market readily available to an English-speaking audience. Special care has
been taken to offer a thorough overview of what is known about the overall
German market. In addition to numerous references to the existing litera-
ture, most of the data in this book has been compiled from primary sources.
Maybe most importantly, a novel and very comprehensive side-by-side quan-
titative comparison of the American and German venture capital markets is
presented in chapters 5 and 6.

The main finding of this book is that the prevalent German public poUcy
of targeting the supply of venture capital is misguided and will not lead to
more vibrant venture capital activity. A thorough review of the relevant
theory and the available empirical evidence reveals that while a strong case
can be made in favor of public intervention, the main schemes meant to help
expand the venture capital market in Germany that are now in place are ill-
designed. Only a drastic reversal of priorities will lead to the desired outcome
of a more active German venture capital market and in turn higher economic
growth.

Before discussing the intricacies of the market in the U.S. and Germany
and turning to how venture capital activity can potentially be influenced,
we first have to clarify what exactly venture capital is and how it functions.
The remainder of this chapter thus sets out to provide a concise introduction
to venture capital for readers who are so far unfamiliar with the industry.
Having explained what venture capital is and how it works in section 1.1 and
1.2, section 1.3 provides a roadmap for the remainder of this book.^

^No attention at all is paid here to the business administration literature on how venture
capital firms work. For an introduction to these topics, see the surveys by Gorman and
Sahlman (1989), Lerner (2000), and Sahlman (1990) for the U.S. and Schefczyk (1998),
Wupperfeld (1996), and Zemke (1995) for Germany.
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