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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN POLITICAL LEADERSHIP

Disjunctive Prime
Ministerial Leadership
in British Politics
From Baldwin to Brexit
Christopher Byrne
Nick Randall
Kevin Theakston
Palgrave Studies in Political Leadership

Series Editors
Ludger Helms
University of Innsbruck
Innsbruck, Austria

Gillian Peele
Department of Politics and International
University of Oxford
Oxford, UK

Bert A. Rockman
Department of Political Science
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN, USA
Palgrave Studies in Political Leadership seeks to gather some of the best
work on political leadership broadly defined, stretching from classical areas
such as executive, legislative and party leadership to understudied manifes-
tations of political leadership beyond the state. Edited by an international
board of distinguished leadership scholars from the United States, Europe
and Asia, the series publishes cutting-edge research that reaches out to a
global readership. The editors are gratefully supported by an advisory
board comprising of: Takashi Inoguchi (University of Tokyo, Japan),
R.A.W Rhodes (University of Southampton, UK) and Ferdinand Müller-­
Rommel (University of Luneburg, Germany).

More information about this series at

http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14602
 Christopher Byrne • Nick Randall
Kevin Theakston

Disjunctive Prime
Ministerial Leadership
in British Politics
From Baldwin to Brexit
Christopher Byrne Nick Randall
Department of Politics and School of Geography, Politics and
International Relations Sociology
Leeds Beckett University Newcastle University
Leeds, UK Newcastle, UK

Kevin Theakston
School of Politics and
International Studies
University of Leeds
Leeds, UK

Palgrave Studies in Political Leadership

ISBN 978-3-030-44910-0    ISBN 978-3-030-44911-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44911-7

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2020
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to
the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The
publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and
institutional affiliations.

Cover illustration: Nathan King / Alamy Stock Photo

This Palgrave Pivot imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
 Contents

1 Introduction  1
1.1 Introduction  1
1.2 Prime Ministerial Agency in Political Time  6
References 13

2 Disjunctive Leadership in Interwar Britain: Stanley

Baldwin, Ramsay MacDonald, and Neville Chamberlain 17
2.1 The Interwar Regime 17
2.2 Vulnerabilities of the Interwar Regime 20
2.3 Baldwin’s First Term 22
2.4 MacDonald’s First Term 24
2.5 Baldwin’s Second Term, 1924–1929  26
2.6 MacDonald’s Premierships, 1929–1935  29
2.7 Baldwin’s Final Term 35
2.8 Chamberlain’s Premiership 37
2.9 Baldwin, Macdonald, Chamberlain, and the Interwar
Regime 40
2.10 Conclusion 43
References 44

3 The Collapse of Keynesian Welfarism 1970–1979: Heath,

Wilson, Callaghan 51
3.1 The Keynesian Welfare State Regime 52
3.2 Regime Vulnerability 1970–1979  54

v
vi Contents

3.3 Edward Heath’s Technocratic Modernisation 60

3.4 Harold Wilson: ‘A Problem Shelved Is a Problem Solved’ 65
3.5 James Callaghan’s Pragmatic Stabilisation and Crisis
Management 69
3.6 Conclusion 74
References 77

4 The Collapse of the Neoliberal Consensus 2008–2019:

Brown, Cameron, May 85
4.1 Introduction 86
4.2 The Neoliberal Regime 86
4.3 Vulnerabilities in the Neoliberal Regime 89
4.4 Gordon Brown and the Financial Crisis: A Fourth Way? 94
4.5 Cameron: Blairism After the Crash? 98
4.6 Theresa May, Brexit, and Corbynism: An Impossible
Leadership Situation?101
4.7 Conclusion106
References108

5 Conclusion: Evaluating Disjunctive Prime Ministerial

Leadership113
5.1 Introduction113
5.2 Refining Skowronek’s Account of Political Time115
5.3 The Agency of Disjunctive Prime Ministers119
5.4 Evaluating Disjunctive Prime Ministerial Leadership134
5.5 Conclusion138
References139

Index 143
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction

Abstract This introductory chapter sets out the rationale and approach
for this study of disjunctive prime ministerial leadership. In a brief review
of existing models of prime ministerial power and performance, we observe
that a persistent problem arises from the difficulties of reconciling struc-
ture and agency. Two principal research aims for the book follow. First, to
demonstrate the potential of analysing prime ministerial performance by
using a ‘political time’ approach informed by Stephen Skowronek’s work
to examine ‘disjunctive’ prime ministers across the last century of British
politics. Second, in acknowledging that this approach is often accused of a
structuralist predisposition, we set out our second research ambition, to
establish a framework in which prime ministerial agency can be under-
stood within the context of political time.

Keywords Prime ministers • Structure and agency • Leadership styles •

Statecraft • Political time

1.1   Introduction
The prime minister, for good reason, is an object of fascination in British
politics, and assessments of prime ministerial performance abound.
Sometimes these take the form of detailed academic analyses (see Bennister
and Heffernan 2011; Theakston 2002, 2007, 2011, 2012) or political

© The Author(s) 2020 1

C. Byrne et al., Disjunctive Prime Ministerial Leadership in British
Politics, Palgrave Studies in Political Leadership,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44911-7_1
2 C. BYRNE ET AL.

obituaries following prime ministerial resignation or defenestration, but

they also take place in real time across print, broadcast, and social media.
Such assessments often draw upon public opinion polling which tracks not
only the prime minister’s net ‘favourability’, but also perceptions of vari-
ous, often bewildering, facets of their public persona. On the incumbent
Boris Johnson’s YouGov (2019) pages, we find polling on what he ‘stands
for’ as prime minister (number one item: ‘Wants tighter restrictions on
immigration’), his trustworthiness, whether he is ‘Strong’ or ‘Weak’,
‘Decisive’ or ‘Indecisive’, ‘Competent’ or ‘Incompetent’, ‘Authentic’ or
‘Putting on an act’, ‘In touch’ or ‘Out of touch’. We even discover which
Hogwarts house he would be placed in if he were part of the Harry Potter
universe. Perhaps unsurprisingly, most respondents chose Slytherin. Prime
ministers also face continual assessment on social media platforms such as
Twitter (currently 1.2 million followers) and Facebook (740,000 likes),
with each bit of content created generating thousands of comments from
members of the public.
However, the vast majority of non-academic assessments, from social
media commentary to newspaper opinion pieces, are idiosyncratic, in that
the criteria they employ are often implicit and dispossessed of a theoretical
framework that would permit rigorous comparisons between prime minis-
ters. This is less often a problem for academic studies. Rather, here the
greater problem is the frequently unsatisfactory manner in which the
structural contexts of prime ministerial action are incorporated into analy-
sis (Byrne and Theakston 2019). This speaks to the central rationale of
this study. It is clear that the prime minister is worthy of study by virtue of
the fact that the holder of that office is ‘powerful’. They are not only
important symbolic figures in the nation’s life, they ‘have an effect’ on the
contexts that condition the possibilities open to other political agents
(Hay 2002: 50). However, existing accounts of prime ministerial leader-
ship rely on excessively parsimonious conceptions of the structural con-
texts in which prime ministers operate.
There are at least four distinct models of prime ministerial power and
leadership in the existing literature: the leadership style model, the power
resources model, the statecraft model and the political time model (Byrne
and Theakston 2019). The leadership style model is based on Greenstein’s
work on the US presidency (2005, 2009) which has been applied to
British prime ministers (Theakston 2007, 2011, 2012). This advances a
highly agent-centred account of leadership, focusing on the personal
­qualities and skills of individual incumbents. On this model, prime minis-
ters need to communicate effectively. They must possess organisational
 1 INTRODUCTION 3

capacity, including abilities to effectively use advisors and the government

machine. They require political skills such as persuasion, conciliation,
manipulation, and brokerage. This is complemented by a policy vision to
provide coherence and direction. Fifth is their ‘cognitive style’—how they
process advice and take decisions. A final factor is ‘emotional intelligence’,
their ability to manage their emotions and employ them for constructive
purposes.
The power resources model of prime ministerial power and leadership
advanced by Heffernan (2003, 2005, 2013) offers a corrective to the
strongly agent-centred leadership style model. Heffernan argues that
prime ministers can gain ‘predominance’ within British government only
when ‘institutional power resources’ are accompanied by a range of ‘per-
sonal power resources’ (Heffernan 2003: 347). These institutional
resources are found in the legal prerogatives accessed by the prime minis-
ter as the head of government, their control over Cabinet and its commit-
tees, command of the organisational resources of their Downing Street
office and the Cabinet Office, and ability to set a political agenda via the
news media. These resources are coupled with personal power resources of
reputation, skill and ability, prime ministerial association with actual or
expected political success, and the public popularity and intra-party stand-
ing of the incumbent.
The shortcoming of these two approaches is their failure to explore in
sufficient detail the structural preconditions of political leadership. The
leadership style model says little about the broader context in which politi-
cal leadership takes place. For example, it is not clear which personal quali-
ties need to be ‘activated’ by structural contexts of various kinds in order
for political leaders to effectively wield power. Heffernan (2003: 349)
does acknowledge structures (institutions and networks) and context
(economic and social environments) but provides little detail on how these
develop temporally and how they interact with the other aspects of the
power resources model (see Byrne and Theakston 2019).
A third approach is the statecraft model, originally developed by Jim
Bulpitt (1986) and subsequently applied and refined by Jim Buller and
Toby James (2012, 2015). The statecraft model situates prime ministers in
a context in which electoral imperatives and constraints loom large.
Developing a winning electoral strategy by constructing an image and
policy prospectus to mobilise a majority coalition of voters is the first com-
ponent of successful statecraft. Second, prime ministers must demonstrate
and maintain their reputation for governing competence. Third, they
must secure support in their parliamentary and extra-parliamentary
4 C. BYRNE ET AL.

parties. Fourth, they must win the battle of ideas and establish ‘political
argument hegemony’ by dominating, if possible, the terms of political
argument about policy agendas, problems, and solutions.
Buller and James’ iteration of the statecraft model (2012, 2015) directly
confronts the structure-agency issue by adopting a morphogenetic
approach. This allows prime ministerial action to be understood not just
in respect of personal leadership styles, or factors linked to the immediate
institutional environment, but also in terms of broader structural factors
such as the dynamics of the capitalist economy. They incorporate a fairly
wide array of structures which interact with each other as well as with
agents. However, incorporating the temporal selectivity of particular
structural contexts into prime ministerial action remains challenging in
this account (Byrne and Theakston 2019).
A final approach is to adopt a ‘political time’ method, rooted in Stephen
Skowronek’s (1993, 2008) analyses of American political development.
This, as we show in this book, needs adjustments for constitutional, insti-
tutional, and political differences between the US and the UK. Not least
the character of Cabinet government, the fusion of powers, the presence
of more significant and relatively disciplined parties, and the role of an
institutionalised Opposition need recognition in the UK (Laing and
McCaffrie 2013: 84–89; Byrne et al. 2017: 205–206). However, we set as
our first research aim in this book to show how prime ministerial leader-
ship can be better understood and evaluated by using a ‘political time’
perspective.
Skowronek’s framework proposes that the authority and power of
political leaders is related to the stance adopted towards the political
regime and the position of that regime in political time. A regime com-
prises a coalition of interests sharing a common legitimising ideology, pur-
suing a set of ideas, values, policy paradigms, and programmes within a
particular institutional framework. Skowronek describes the dynamics of
these regimes in terms of the rhythm of ‘political time’, in which regimes
are established, maintained, decay, enter crisis, and are replaced. He argues
that the power presidents have is a function not merely of the resources
(both formal and informal) they inherit, but also of their authority—that
is, the public perception of what it is legitimate for a president to do given
the state of the existing regime. On this basis, he posits four broad types
of political leadership: ‘the politics of articulation’, used to describe politi-
cal leaders affiliated to a resilient political regime, who may attempt
‘orthodox innovation’ but never fundamental reform; ‘the politics of
 1 INTRODUCTION 5

disjunction’, used to describe political leaders affiliated to a vulnerable

political regime; ‘the politics of reconstruction’, which refers to political
leaders opposed to a vulnerable regime and who therefore have the most
effective authority warrant of all; and, finally, ‘the politics of preemption’,
which refers to political leaders intent on reconstructing a resilient politi-
cal regime, but who encounter great difficulty because they lack the neces-
sary authority warrants to fashion a coalition of interests capable of
supporting such a reconstruction.
In adopting such a political time perspective, the range of structural
contexts considered in analyses of prime ministerial power is broadened
out significantly, which, we aim to show, helps us to understand the poten-
tialities of the office through a series of case studies of the politics of dis-
junction. The book therefore considers three crucial junctures in modern
British politics in the form of the extended political and economic crisis of
the interwar years, the crisis of Atlantic Fordism experienced throughout
the West in the 1970s, and the still-unfolding crisis of neoliberalism trig-
gered by the 2008 global financial crisis.
However, as Milkis (1995: 488) argues, the title of Skowronek’s book
(The Politics Presidents Make) can be considered a misnomer, because he
arguably allows too little scope for presidents to actually ‘make politics’:
they either accept the role history has marked out for them as reconstruc-
tor, articulator, or disjunctor, or fight against it in vain as a ‘preemptor’.
Skowronek (1995: 523) counters this accusation of quasi-structuralism by
insisting that political agency is at the centre of the political time model:
presidents are not ‘assigned’ roles, but fashion them themselves, within
particular structural contexts, and faced with the dilemmas presented by
political time. This is to caution against viewing the political time model
as a purely ‘cyclical’ theory: the crucial thing, Skowronek suggests, is to
acknowledge that ‘similar roles tend to be recreated at will over vast
stretches of history’ and that political leaders have performed these roles
in ways that were not pre-determined, leading to meaningful secular time
changes that, in turn, form part of the structural context encountered by
subsequent political leaders. This is unobjectionable, but it should also be
reaffirmed that all structural contexts, including the structural context of
political time, are discursively mediated, and that political leaders will not
necessarily be cognisant of or accept their place in political time, leading
them to experience their structural contexts differently from one another.
Additionally, structural contexts are agentially, strategically, temporally,
and spatially selective, meaning that the objective quality Skowronek
6 C. BYRNE ET AL.

attributes to the structural contexts forming part of his political time

model is illusory and, in combination, these two factors rob it of much of
the predictive capacity claimed for it by Skowronek and some of his adher-
ents. The major advantage of the political time model is that it acknowl-
edges the temporal selectivity of structural contexts because it shows that
the effectiveness of the institutional power resources identified by
Heffernan (2003, 2005) varies depending upon a prime minister’s posi-
tion in political time—that is, whether he or she is affiliated or opposed to
a resilient or vulnerable regime.
The second main research aim of this book is therefore to explore in
more depth how prime ministers employ agency to negotiate the struc-
tural contexts in which they govern. We therefore seek to provide an over-
view of the strategic repertoire of prime ministers, and disjunctive prime
ministers in particular, by looking at six crucial sets of decisions all political
leaders need to make.

1.2   Prime Ministerial Agency in Political Time

In an extensive literature on the British premiership, prime ministerial
agency has attracted little direct and systematic attention. The fierce
debates on prime ministerial, cabinet, and presidential government have
comprehensively specified the powers of the office. However, as Norton
(1987: 327) noted some time ago, ‘Knowing what those powers are does
not, however, help us understand the exercise of those powers nor why
their exercise achieves, or fails to achieve, the outcome desired by the
occupant of the office.’ To appreciate how prime ministers exercise agency
some understanding can be gleaned by piecing together insights from a
variety of literatures on British politics. Yet where Hennessy (2011), for
example, could identify 47 functions of the modern UK prime minister,
there has, as yet, been no comparable attempt to draw together insights
concerning prime ministerial agency into a single, integrated framework.
Such a framework is essential if we are to make meaningful assessments of
prime ministerial leadership. It is insufficient to specify the structural con-
straints present at particular points in political time. We also need to
understand the range and limitations of action associated with prime min-
isterial agency.
Drawing upon several literatures, including those associated with gov-
ernance and policy design, we can understand the general characteristics of
prime ministerial agency in relation to six major domains of political
 1 INTRODUCTION 7

decisions. First, prime ministers possess agency in how they frame political
problems. Second, they can choose whether to act or not. Third, assuming
that they decide to act, they then possess discretion over when to act.
Fourth, they may select where to act, nominating the political forum most
advantageous for their purposes. Fifth, they can choose how to act from a
variety of policy instruments. Finally, they decide on what terms they will
justify their decisions.

1.2.1  Framing Political Problems

Prime ministers at all points in political time encounter social, economic,
and political problems and they exercise agency by interpreting these
developments, aiming to establish a dominant narrative. In this sense
prime ministers engage in ‘diagnostic framing’ (Benford and Snow 2000).
They attempt to define how the nature, severity, and significance of prob-
lems are understood. In addition, they attribute causality and responsibil-
ity for these developments.
However, prime ministers do not frame problems without challenge.
They engage in ‘framing contests’. Their partisan opponents, the media,
and other organisations within civil society engage in counter-framing in
an attempt to wrest control of the social and political meaning of events.
In such contests an important consideration is the ‘resonance’ of the
frame. Resonance depends on how consistent the framing is with the
beliefs, behaviours, and actions of those articulating the frame. The cred-
ibility of both the articulator and the claims advanced further conditions
whether frames resonate.

1.2.2  Whether to Act
A fundamental choice confronting prime ministers is whether or not to
act. As Barber (2017) suggests, inaction is often preferable. He suggests
inaction may follow from fear of the electoral consequences of action,
from the philosophical or ideological commitments of politicians, or
through lack of the resources necessary to deliver action. Moving beyond
Barber’s account, we can identify further potential grounds for inaction.
First, prime ministers may encounter issues which spring from what Clarke
(2014) described as the ‘too difficult box’. When confronted with com-
plex problems which they may find themselves ill-equipped to deal with,
prime ministerial inaction may follow. Second, there are limits to the
8 C. BYRNE ET AL.

institutional capacity of regimes. Taking action in one area may consume

much of the available institutional bandwidth, meaning that inaction in
other areas is inescapable. Third, inaction may follow from the framing of
problems. Inaction is more viable when a problem is framed as possessing
minimal significance, is ranked below other more salient priorities, or is
presented as originating in causes lying beyond government jurisdiction
and agency.
However, counter-pressures also apply. Path dependence matters.
Inaction is less credible if previous prime ministers have already engaged
with the issue. Inactivity, or the perception of inaction, can also be a high-­
risk strategy. Once an issue is framed as a significant problem it becomes
challenging to disavow the need for action. The scope for inaction dimin-
ishes if other actors oppose the regime. A reconstructive opposition leader
will usually seek to ensure that regime vulnerabilities remain on the politi-
cal agenda, rendering inaction less tenable.

1.2.3  When to Act
If prime ministers conclude that inaction is impossible, they nevertheless
exercise some choice over when to act. Although certain political timeta-
bles operate outside prime ministerial control—for example, some of those
associated with parliamentary procedures, or the ultimate duration of the
electoral cycle—many possibilities remain to deploy time as a political
resource. The ability to determine when, and in what sequence to act, is a
matter of strategic political calculation (Schedler and Santiso 1998). For
example, by acting quickly, the advantages of pre-empting opponents and
setting the terms of debate may follow. Alternatively, slowing the tempo of
decision-making may be helpful. It may buy time, during which conflicts
can be de-escalated or unfavourable conditions may change. A prolonged
sequence of incremental decisions may circumvent the opposition gener-
ated by one-off, transformational actions. By allowing the clock to run
down, delay may reduce the options available to resolve matters in a way
which favours prime ministerial preferences.

1.2.4  Where to Act
Multi-level governance and ‘depoliticisation’ have proven fertile areas for
research over the last two decades of British politics. Their significance for
the British premiership has not gone unnoticed. For example, Rose (2001)
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