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HANDBOOK OF SPORTS
AND LOTTERY MARKETS
 HANDBOOKS
IN
FINANCE

Series Editor

WILLIAM T. ZIEMBA

Advisory Editors

KENNETH J. ARROW
GEORGE C. CONSTANTINIDES
B. ESPEN ECKBO
HARRY M. MARKOWITZ
ROBERT C. MERTON
STEWART C. MYERS
PAUL A. SAMUELSON
WILLIAM F. SHARPE

AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON

NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier
HANDBOOK OF SPORTS
AND LOTTERY MARKETS

Edited by

Donald B. Hausch
University of Wisconsin, Madison

William T. Ziemba
University of British Columbia
Oxford University
University of Reading

AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON

NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier
North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK
30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA
525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, California 92101-4495, USA
Copyright 
c 2008, Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including recording, photocopying, or otherwise, without the
prior written permission of the publisher.
Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights
Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333;
email: [email protected]. Alternatively you can submit your request online by
visiting the Elsevier Web site at www.elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting
Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material.
Recognizing the importance of preserving what has been written, Elsevier prints
its books on acid-free paper whenever possible.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hausch, Donald B.
Handbook of sports and lottery markets / edited by Donald B. Hausch.
p. cm. – (Handbooks in finance)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-444-50744-0 (hardcover)
1. Sports betting. 2. Lotteries. 3. Gambling systems. I. Ziemba, W. T. II. Title.
GV717.H38 2008
796–dc22
2008012459
ISBN: 978-0-444-50744-0
For information on all Elsevier publications,
visit our Web site at www.books.elsevier.com.
Printed in the United States of America
08 09 10 11 12 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To the memory of my father, Robert C. Hausch, who would have enjoyed this volume.
—D. B. H.

To my snow princess and her wonderful development into an outstanding researcher of

the world’s economic and financial activities.
—W. T. Z.
This page intentionally left blank
Contents

List of Contributors xvii

Preface xix
Introduction to the Series xxiii

Part I Industry Studies 1

1 Pari-Mutuel Horse Race Wagering—Competition from Within and

Outside the Industry 3
Richard Thalheimer and Mukhtar M. Ali

1. Introduction 4
2. Competition from Casino Gaming 5
3. Competition from State Lotteries 7
4. Competition from Professional Sports 8
5. Competition from Live Racing 8
6. Competition from Simulcast Wagering 11
7. Summary and Conclusions 13
References 14

2 Modeling Money Bet on Horse Races in Hong Kong 17

John Bacon-Shone and Alan Woods

1. Introduction 18
2. Variables examined 18
2.1. Outcome Variables 18
2.2. Independent Variables 19
3. Results and Discussion 19
4. Conclusion 21
References 22
Appendix: 31 Independent Variables Examined (Excluding Quadratic Terms) 23

vii
viii Contents

Part II Utility, Probability, and Pace Estimation 25

3 Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors 27

Bruno Jullien and Bernard Salanié

1. Introduction 28
2. Some Stylized Facts 30
3. Expected Utility 33
4. Distortions of Probabilities 36
5. Reference Points and Asymmetric Probability Weights 39
6. Heterogeneous Preferences 42
7. Exotic Bets 45
8. Concluding Remarks 46
References 47

4 Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-Entry Competitions

by a Simple Method 51
Victor S. Y. Lo and John Bacon-Shone

1. Introduction 52
2. Theoretical Results of the Limiting Cases 53
3. A Simple Approximation 56
3.1. Empirical Analysis for the Approximated Henery Model 56
3.2. Empirical Analysis for the Stern Model 57
4. Conclusion 59
References 60
Appendix: Proof of Theorem 1 61

5 Modeling Distance Preference and Pace Character in Thoroughbred

Turf Racing 67
David Edelman

1. Background 68
2. Case Study 1: Sha Tin (Hong Kong, SAR, PRC) 69
3. Case Study 2: Randwick (Sydney, Australia) 71
4. Qualitative Questions 77
4.1. Do Distance Specialists Exist? 77
4.2. Pace, Class, and Time: The Central Paradox of Racing 78
4.3. Jockeys: Distance or Pace Preference? 79
5. Discussion 80
References 80
Contents ix

Part III Favorite-Longshot Bias in the Win Market 81

6 The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations 83

Marco Ottaviani and Peter Norman Sørensen

1. Introduction 84
2. Notation 87
3. Misestimation of Probabilities 87
4. Market Power by Informed Bettors 89
5. Preference for Risk 90
6. Heterogeneous Beliefs 93
7. Market Power by Uninformed Bookmaker 95
8. Limited Arbitrage 96
9. Simultaneous Betting by Insiders 97
10. Timing of Bets 99
10.1. Early Betting 99
10.2. Late Betting 99
References 100

7 Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions? 103

Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers

1. Introduction 104
2. Preferences—Expected Utility Models with Linear Probabilities 108
3. Perceptions—The Weighting of True Probabilities 111
4. Perceptions—Informational Effects 112
5. Definition of Models and Implications for Combinatoric Bets 114
6. Using Combinatoric Markets to Test the Models 119
6.1. Testing Conditional Independence 123
6.2. Relaxing Conditional Independence Further 125
7. Conclusion 129
References 130
Appendix A: Pricing of Combinatoric Bets Using Conditional Independence 134
Appendix B: Data 135

8 Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies 137

Russell S. Sobel and Matt E. Ryan

1. Introduction 138
2. Biases Found in the Previous Literature 138
3. What Causes the Favorite-Longshot Bias at the Racetrack? 140
3.1. The Casual Bettor 143
x Contents

3.2. The Serious or Regular Bettor 144

3.3. The Arbitrageur 148
4. Is it Risk or Information? 150
5. Can the Model Explain the Biases in Other Markets? 156
6. Conclusion 157
References 158

9 The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures
Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance 161
Robert G. Tompkins, William T. Ziemba, and Stewart D. Hodges

1. Introduction 162
2. Methodology 166
3. Results 170
3.1. Results for Quarterly Options on Stock Index Futures 174
3.2. Results for Monthly Options on Stock Index Futures 175
4. Conclusions 178
References 179

Part IV Weak Market Efficiency 181

10 Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets 183

William T. Ziemba

1. Introduction 184
2. Extent of Gambling in the U.S. 187
3. Racetrack Betting Markets 190
3.1. Introduction to Racetrack Betting 190
3.2. Win Market 190
3.3. Place and Show Markets 195
3.4. Place and Show Probabilities 196
3.5. Optimal Capital Growth 201
3.6. Implementing the System and Empirical Results 203
3.7. Does the System Still Provide Profits? 206
3.8. Exotic Markets 207
3.9. Cross-Track Betting 208
4. The Football Betting Market 209
5. The Basketball Betting Market 211
6. Lotteries 212
6.1. Introduction to Lotteries 212
6.2. Inefficiencies with Unpopular Numbers 214
References 217
Contents xi

11 Point Spread and Odds Betting: Baseball, Basketball, and American Football 223
Hal S. Stern

1. Introduction 224
2. Efficiency of Odds Betting Markets 224
2.1. Horse Race Betting 224
2.2. Baseball 226
3. Efficiency of Point Spread Betting Markets 227
3.1. American Football 227
3.2. Basketball 230
4. Relationship of Point Spread and Odds Betting 230
4.1. Normal Distribution Result 231
4.2. Applications of the Normal Approximation 233
5. The Normal Model and Mid-Event Wagering 234
6. Summary 236
References 237

12 Comparing Efficiency of the Over/Under-Bets on NFL and NBA Games 239

Joseph Golec and Maurry Tamarkin

1. Introduction 240
2. The Sports Betting Market: Setting Point Spreads and Over/Unders 240
3. NFL and NBA Betting Market Efficiency 242
4. Conclusion 249
References 251

13 Arbitrage and Risk Arbitrage in Team Jai Alai 253

Daniel Lane and William T. Ziemba

1. Introduction 254
2. The Arbitrage 258
3. Risk Arbitrages 261
4. Final Remarks 269
References 271

Part V Semi-Strong Form Efficiency 273

14 Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets 275

M. Sung and J. E. V. Johnson

1. Introduction 276
2. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets:
Single Variable Models 277
2.1. Arbitrage Between Parallel Markets 278
2.2 Professional Predictions 285
xii Contents

2.3. Betting Volume 289

2.4. Post Position 290
2.5. Pedigree 291
2.6. Distance Preference 292
2.7. Single Variable Models: Overview 292
3. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets:
Multiple Variable Models 293
3.1. Distribution-Based Methods 294
3.2. Distribution-Free Methods 298
3.3. Multiple Variable Models: Overview 300
4. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Conclusion 301
References 302

15 The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions 307

Marshall Gramm and William T. Ziemba

1. Introduction 308
2. The Racetrack as a Sequence of Markets 310
3. The Dosage Index and Performance Measures 311
4. Data Acquisition 314
5. Application of Breeding Information and Performance Measures to
Refine Estimated Win Probabilities for the Kentucky Derby 314
6. The Kelly Betting Model 320
7. The Kentucky Derby, 1981–2007 322
8. The Preakness Stakes, 1946–2006 327
9. The Belmont Stakes, 1946–2006 329
10. Conclusions 330
References 331
Appendix A: Data Sources 333
A.1 Public’s Wagering 333
A.2. Pedigrees 333
A.3. Chef-de-Race Listings 333
A.4. Experimental Free Handicap Listings 334
A.5. Results of the Kentucky Derby and Major Races Prior to the
Kentucky Derby 334
Appendix B: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Winners, 1946–2006 334

16 Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: The Role of Professional Tipsters 341
Bruno Deschamps and Olivier Gergaud

1. Introduction 342
2. The Model 343
3. Data 345
3.1. Tips and Rewards Rules 345
Contents xiii

3.2. Public Information 346

3.3. Measuring Forecast Originality 347
4. Results 348
4.1. Results of Frequency Tests 348
4.2. Originality and Accuracy 348
4.3. Anti-Herding and Excess Originality 350
5. Conclusion 351
References 351
Appendix: Proof of Equation (5) 353

Part VI Prediction Markets 355

17 Index Betting for Sports and Stock Indices 357

John Haigh and Leighton Vaughan Williams

1. Background 358
2. How Index Betting Operates 360
3. Setting Spreads 362
4. Spreads in Performance Indices 365
5. Advantageous Bets 368
6. Regulation, Taxation, and Biases in Spread Betting Markets 372
References 374
Appendix A 377
Appendix B 378
Appendix C 380

18 Prediction Markets: From Politics to Business (and Back) 385

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz

1. Overview 386
2. The First Prediction Markets 388
3. Markets in the Lab 391
4. Current Uses of Prediction Markets: Business and Policy 393
5. Future Directions: Decision Markets 397
6. Potential Pitfalls 398
7. Conclusion 400
References 401

19 Betting Exchanges: A Technological Revolution in Sports Betting 403

Michael A. Smith and Leighton Vaughan Williams

1. Introduction 404
2. The Operation of Betting Exchanges 404
xiv Contents

3. Empirical Models and Evidence Concerning Weak-Form Information

Efficiency in Betting Exchanges 409
4. New Evidence on the Degree of Bias in Betting Exchange Odds 412
5. Conclusions 416
References 417

Part VII Soccer 419

20 Soccer Betting in Britain 421

David Forrest

1. Introduction 422
2. Development of Soccer Betting 423
3. Transactions Costs in the Fixed Odds Market 426
4. Early Study of Market Efficiency 429
5. Tipsters 431
6. Fundamental Analysis as an Aid to Soccer Betting 432
7. Technical Analysis 437
8. Sentiment 440
9 The Future of Research on Soccer Betting 443
References 444

21 Efficiency of Soccer Betting Odds—Evidence from a Pan-European

Electronic Market 447
Stephan Kossmeier and Simon Weinberger

1. Introduction 448
2. The Soccer Betting Market 449
3. Data Description 450
4 Efficiency Tests 451
4.1. Statistical Tests 451
4.2. Economic Tests 454
5. Conclusion 455
References 456

Part VIII Lotteries 457

22 How to Design a Lottery 459

Ian Walker

1. Introduction 460
2. The Odds of Winning a (Pari-Mutuel) Lottery 464
3. The Expected Value Calculation 465
Contents xv

4. Higher Moments of the Prize Distribution 467

5. Econometric Methodology, Data, and Estimates 469
6. Game Design Simulations 474
7. Conclusion 476
References 477
Appendix: The Expected Value Formula 479

23 The Statistics of Lotteries 481

John Haigh

1. Introduction 482
2. Prize Structure and Winning Chances 485
3. Tests of Randomness 491
4. Gambler Choices 496
References 502

24 U.S. Lotto Markets 503

Victor Matheson and Kent Grote

1. Introduction 504
2. Differences Between American and European Lotteries 509
3. Fungibility of Lottery Revenues 512
4. Efficiency of Lottery Markets—Part 1 516
5. Efficiency of Lottery Markets—Part 2 519
6. Efficiency of Lottery Markets—Part 3 521
7. Conclusions 522
References 523

Subject Index 525

Author Index 533

This page intentionally left blank
List of Contributors

Mukhtar Ali, Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA

John Bacon-Shone, Social Sciences Research Centre, University of Hong Kong,
Hong Kong
Bruno Deschamps, School of Management, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath,
UK
David Edelman, Banking & Finance Unit, University College Dublin, Blackrock,
County Dublin, Ireland
David Forrest, Centre for the Study of Gambling, University of Salford, Salford, UK
Olivier Gergaud, Department of Economics, University of Reims, Champagne-
Ardenne, France
Joseph Golec, Department of Finance, School of Business, University of Connecticut,
Storrs, CT, USA
Marshall Gramm, Rhodes College, Memphis, TN, USA
Kent Grote, Department of Business and Economics, Lake Forest College, Lake Forest,
IL, USA
John Haigh, Mathematics Department, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, UK
Donald B. Hausch, School of Business, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
Stewart D. Hodges, Finance Group, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick,
Coventry, UK
J. E. V. Johnson, Centre for Risk Research, School of Management, Highfield,
University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Bruno Jullien, Toulouse School of Economics, Toulouse, France
Stephan Kossmeier, Institute for Advanced Studies/Institut für Höhere, Studien (IHS),
Vienna, Austria
Daniel Lane, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada

xvii
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