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Understandable Statistics
This page intentionally left blank
Instructor’s Annotated Edition

NINTH EDITION

Understandable
Statistics
Concepts and Methods

Charles Henry Brase

Regis University

Corrinne Pellillo Brase

Arapahoe Community College

HOUGHTON M I F F LI N COM PANY

Boston New York
Publisher: Richard Stratton
Senior Sponsoring Editor: Molly Taylor
Senior Marketing Manager: Katherine Greig
Associate Editor: Carl Chudyk
Senior Content Manager: Rachel D’Angelo Wimberly
Art and Design Manager: Jill Haber
Cover Design Manager: Anne S. Katzeff
Senior Photo Editor: Jennifer Meyer Dare
Composition Buyer: Chuck Dutton
Senior New Title Project Manager: Patricia O’Neill
Editorial Associate: Andrew Lipsett
Marketing Assistant: Erin Timm
Editorial Assistant: Joanna Carter-O’Connell

Cover image: © Frans Lanting/Corbis

A complete list of photo credits appears in the back of the book, immediately following
the appendixes.

TI-83Plus and TI-84Plus are registered trademarks of Texas Instruments, Inc.

SPSS is a registered trademark of SPSS, Inc.
Minitab is a registered trademark of Minitab, Inc.
Microsoft Excel screen shots reprinted by permission from Microsoft Corporation.
Excel, Microsoft, and Windows are either registered trademarks or trademarks of
Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries.

Copyright © 2009 by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, elec-
tronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information stor-
age or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Houghton Mifflin
Company unless such copying is expressly permitted by federal copyright law. Address
inquiries to College Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Company, 222 Berkeley Street,
Boston, MA 02116-3764.

Printed in the U.S.A.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2007924857

Instructor’s Annotated Edition:

ISBN-13: 978-0-618-94989-2
ISBN-10: 0-618-94989-5

Student Edition:
ISBN-13: 978-0-618-94992-2
ISBN-10: 0-618-94992-5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 –CRK–11 10 09 08 07
 This book is dedicated to the memory of
a great teacher, mathematician, and friend

Burton W. Jones
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado
This page intentionally left blank
 Contents
Preface xxi
Table of Prerequisite Material 1

1 Getting Started 2
FOCUS PROBLEM: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 12
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 20
Summary 28
Important Words & Symbols 28
Chapter Review Problems 29
Data Highlights: Group Projects 31
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 31
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 32

2 Organizing Data 34
FOCUS PROBLEM: Say It with Pictures 35
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 36
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 50
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 57
Summary 66
Important Words & Symbols 66
Chapter Review Problems 67
Data Highlights: Group Projects 69
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 70
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 72

3 Averages and Variation 74

FOCUS PROBLEM: The Educational Advantage 75
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 76
3.2 Measures of Variation 86
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 102
Summary 112
Important Words & Symbols 112
Chapter Review Problems 113
Data Highlights: Group Projects 115
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 116
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 118

CUMULATIVE REVIEW PROBLEMS: Chapters 1–3 119

vii
viii Contents

4 Elementary Probability Theory 122

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Often Do Lie Detectors Lie? 123

4.1 What Is Probability? 124
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 133
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 152
Summary 162
Important Words & Symbols 162
Chapter Review Problems 163
Data Highlights: Group Projects 165
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 166
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 167

5 The Binomial Probability Distribution

and Related Topics 168

FOCUS PROBLEM: Personality Preference Types: Introvert or Extrovert? 169

5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 170
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 182
5.3 Additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 196
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions 208
Summary 225
Important Words & Symbols 225
Chapter Review Problems 226
Data Highlights: Group Projects 229
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 231
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 233

6 Normal Distributions 234

FOCUS PROBLEM: Large Auditorium Shows: How Many Will Attend? 235
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 236
6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 248
6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve 258
6.4 Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution 273
Summary 280
Important Words & Symbols 281
Chapter Review Problems 282
Data Highlights: Group Projects 284
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 286
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 287

CUMULATIVE REVIEW PROBLEMS: Chapters 4–6 290

 Contents ix

7 Introduction to Sampling Distributions 292

FOCUS PROBLEM: Impulse Buying 293
7.1 Sampling Distributions 294
7.2 The Central Limit Theorem 299
7.3 Sampling Distributions for Proportions 311
Summary 321
Important Words & Symbols 321
Chapter Review Problems 321
Data Highlights: Group Projects 323
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 324
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 325

8 Estimation 328
FOCUS PROBLEM: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 329
8.1 Estimating
When  Is Known 330
8.2 Estimating
When  Is Unknown 342
8.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 354
8.4 Estimating
1 
2 and p1  p2 366
Summary 386
Important Words & Symbols 387
Chapter Review Problems 387
Data Highlights: Group Projects 392
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 394
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 395

9 Hypothesis Testing 398

FOCUS PROBLEM: Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1 399
9.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 400
9.2 Testing the Mean
415
9.3 Testing a Proportion p 431
9.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 441
9.5 Testing
1 
2 and p1  p2 (Independent Samples) 455
Summary 477
Important Words & Symbols 477
Chapter Review Problems 478
Data Highlights: Group Projects 481
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 482
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 483

CUMULATIVE REVIEW PROBLEMS: Chapters 7–9 486

x Contents

10 Correlation and Regression 490

FOCUS PROBLEM: Changing Populations and Crime Rate 491
10.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 492
10.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 509
10.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 529
10.4 Multiple Regression 547
Summary 561
Important Words & Symbols 562
Chapter Review Problems 563
Data Highlights: Group Projects 566
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 567
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 569

11 Chi-Square and F Distributions 574

FOCUS PROBLEM: Archaeology in Bandelier National Monument 575
Part I: Inferences Using the Chi-Square Distribution 576
Overview of the Chi-Square Distribution 576
11.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 577
11.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 592
11.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 602
Part II: Inferences Using the F Distribution 614
11.4 Testing Two Variances 614
11.5 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Sample Means 624
11.6 Introduction to Two-Way ANOVA 639
Summary 651
Important Words & Symbols 651
Chapter Review Problems 652
Data Highlights: Group Projects 656
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 656
U SI NG TECH NOLOGY 658

12 Nonparametric Statistics 660

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Cold? Compared to What? 661
12.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 662
12.2 The Rank-Sum Test 670
12.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 678
12.4 Runs Test for Randomness 689
Summary 698
Important Words & Symbols 698
Chapter Review Problems 699
Data Highlights: Group Projects 701
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 701

CUMULATIVE REVIEW PROBLEMS: Chapters 10–12 703

 Contents xi

Appendix I: Additional Topics A1

Part I: Bayes’s Theorem A1

Part II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution A5

Appendix II: Tables A9

Table 1: Random Numbers A9

Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A10
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,rprqnr A11
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A16
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A22
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A24
Table 7: The 2 Distribution A25
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A26
Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A36
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R A37

Photo Credits A38

Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A39
Index I1
This page intentionally left blank
 Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the
limitations of statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes stu-
dents aware of method appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.

NEW! Critical Thinking

CR ITICAL Critical thinking is an important
TH I N KI NG Bias and Variability
skill for students to develop
Whenever we use a sample statistic as an estimate of a population parameter, we
need to consider both bias and variability of the statistic. in order to avoid reaching
misleading conclusions. The
A sample statistic is unbiased if the mean of its sampling distribution equals
the value of the parameter being estimated.
Critical Thinking feature provides
The spread of the sampling distribution indicates the variability of the
additional clarification on
statistic. The spread is affected by the sampling method and the sample size. specific concepts as a safeguard
Statistics from larger random samples have spreads that are smaller.
against incorrect evaluation
of information.
We see from the central limit theorem that the sample mean is an unbiased
estimator of the mean m when n  30. The variability of decreases as the sam-
ple size increases.
In Section 7.3, we will see that the sample proportion p̂ is an unbiased estima-
tor of the population proportion of successes p in binomial experiments with
sufficiently large numbers of trials n. Again, we will see that the variability of p̂
decreases with increasing numbers of trials.
The sample variance s2 is an unbiased estimator for the population variance s 2.
Chapter 7 INTRODUCTION TO SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

(b) Assuming the milk is not contaminated, what is the probability that the average
bacteria count for one day is between 2350 and 2650 bacteria per milliliter?
NEW! Interpretation  SOLUTION: We convert the interval

Increasingly, calculators and 2350  x  2650

computers are used to generate to a corresponding interval on the standard z axis.

the numeric results of a statistical xm x  2500

z

process. However, the student s/1n
1 46.3
still needs to correctly interpret x  2350 converts to z
2350  2500

3.24
46.3
those results in the context of
2650  2500
a particular application. The x  2650 converts to z
46.3

3.24

Interpretation feature calls Therefore,

attention to this important step. P(2350  x  2650)  P(3.24  z  3.24)
 0.9994  0.0006
 0.9988
The probability is 0.9988 that is between 2350 and 2650.
(c) INTERPRETATION At the end of each day, the inspector must decide to accept
or reject the accumulated milk that has been held in cold storage awaiting
shipment. Suppose the 42 samples taken by the inspector have a mean bacte-
ria count x that is not between 2350 and 2650. If you were the inspector,
what would be your comment on this situation?
7. Critical Thinking: Data Transformation In this problem, we explore the effect
on the mean, median, and mode of multiplying each data value by the same SOLUTION: The probability that is between 2350 and 2650 is very high. If the
number. Consider the data set 2, 2, 3, 6, 10. inspector finds that the average bacteria count for the 42 samples is not between
(a) Compute the mode, median, and mean. 2350 and 2650, then it is reasonable to conclude that there is something wrong
(b) Multiply each data value by 5. Compute the mode, median, and mean. with the milk. If is less than 2350, you might suspect someone added chemi-
(c) Compare the results of parts (a) and (b). In general, how do you think the cals to the milk to artificially reduce the bacteria count. If is above 2650, you
mode, median, and mean are affected when each data value in a set is multi- might suspect some other kind of biologic contamination.
plied by the same constant?
(d) Suppose you have information about average heights of a random sample of
airplane passengers. The mode is 70 inches, the median is 68 inches, and the
mean is 71 inches. To convert the data into centimeters, multiply each data
value by 2.54. What are the values of the mode, median, and mean in
centimeters?
8. Critical Thinking Consider a data set of 15 distinct measurements with mean A

NEW! Critical Thinking Exercises
and median B.
In every section and chapter problem set, Critical
(a) If the highest number were increased, what would be the effect on the
median and mean? Explain. Thinking problems provide students with the
(b) If the highest number were decreased to a value still larger than B, what opportunity to test their understanding of the
would be the effect on the median and mean?
(c) If the highest number were decreased to a value smaller than B, what would application of statistical methods and their
be the effect on the median and mean? interpretation of their results.
xiii
 Statistical Literacy
No language can be spoken without learning the vocabulary, including statistics.
Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms
with deliberate care.

NEW! Statistical
SECTION 6.1 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
Literacy Problems
P ROB LEM S normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why. In every section and chapter
2. Statistical Literacy Look at the normal curve in Figure 6-11, and find m, m s,
and s.
problem set, Statistical
Literacy problems test student
FIGURE 6-10 understanding of terminology,
statistical methods, and the
appropriate conditions for use
FIGURE 6-11
of the different processes.

16 18 20 22

Definition Boxes 
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Whenever important terms
Five-number summary The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
are introduced in text, five-number summary of the data and their spread.
yellow definition boxes
Five-number summary
appear within the
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value
discussions. These boxes
make it easy to reference We will use these five numbers to create a graphic sketch of the data called a
or review terms as they Box-and-whisker plot box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique
from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.
are used further.

I M PO RTAN T Section 4.1 Conditional probability

WO R D S & Probability of an event A, P(A) Multiplication rules of probability (for
SYM B O LS Relative frequency independent and dependent events)
Law of large numbers A and B
Equally likely outcomes Mutually exclusive events
Statistical experiment Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and
Simple event general events)
Sample space A or B
Complement of event A
Section 4.3
Section 4.2 Multiplication rule of counting
Independent events Tree diagram
Dependent events Permutations rule
AB Combinations rule

 Important Words & Symbols

The Important Words & Symbols within the Chapter Review feature at the
end of each chapter summarizes the terms introduced in the Definition
Boxes for student review at a glance.

xiv
 Statistical Literacy

centage of women holding computer/ information science degrees make $41,559

or more? How do median incomes for men and women holding engineering
degrees compare? What about pharmacy degrees?

Linking Concepts:
Writing Projects  LI N KI N G CO N C P T S :
WR ITI N G P R O C TS
Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
Much of statistical literacy include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
1. An average is an attempt to summarize a collection of data into just one number.
is the ability to communi- Discuss how the mean, median, and mode all represent averages in this context.
cate concepts effectively. Also discuss the differences among these averages. Why is the mean a balance
point? Why is the median a midway point? Why is the mode the most common
The Linking Concepts: data point? List three areas of daily life in which you think one of the mean,
Writing Projects feature median, or mode would be the best choice to describe an “average.”
at the end of each chapter 2. Why do we need to study the variation of a collection of data? Why isn’t the
average by itself adequate? We have studied three ways to measure variation.
tests both statistical literacy The range, the standard deviation, and, to a large extent, a box-and-whisker plot
and critical thinking all indicate the variation within a data collection. Discuss similarities and differ-
ences among these ways to measure data variation. Why would it seem reason-
by asking the student to able to pair the median with a box-and-whisker plot and to pair the mean with
express their understand- the standard deviation? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each
method of describing data spread? Comment on statements such as the follow-
ing in words. ing: (a) The range is easy to compute, but it doesn’t give much information;
(b) although the standard deviation is more complicated to compute, it has some
significant applications; (c) the box-and-whisker plot is fairly easy to construct,
and it gives a lot of information at a glance.

86 Chapter 3 AVERAGES AND VARIATION

(b) Suppose the EPA has established an average chlorine compound concentration
target of no more than 58 mg/l. Comment on whether this wetlands system
Expand Your
meets the target standard for chlorine compound concentration. Knowledge Problems
17. Expand Your Knowledge: Harmonic Mean When data consist of rates of change,
such as speeds, the harmonic mean is an appropriate measure of central tendency. Expand Your Knowledge
for n data values, problems present optional
Harmonic mean 
n
, assuming no data value is 0 enrichment topics that go
x1
beyond the material introduced
Suppose you drive 60 miles per hour for 100 miles, then 75 miles per hour for
100 miles. Use the harmonic mean to find your average speed.
in a section. Vocabulary and
18. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percentages, concepts needed to solve the
ratios, growth rates, or other rates of change, the geometric mean is a useful problems are included at point-
measure of central tendency. For n data values,
of-use, expanding students’
Geometric mean  2product of the n data values, assuming all data
statistical literacy.
values are positive
To find the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual fund
with growth rates of 10% the first year, 12% the second year, 14.8% the third
year, 3.8% the fourth year, and 6% the fifth year, take the geometric mean of 1.10,
1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth factor of this investment.
Note that for the same data, the relationships among the harmonic, geomet-
ric, and arithmetic means are harmonic mean  geometric mean  arithmetic
mean (Source: Oxford Dictionary of Statistics).

xv
 Direction and Purpose
Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods ensures the student knows what is being cov-
ered and why at every step along the way to statistical literacy.

Introduction to Sampling
Distributions
Chapter Preview 
P R EVI EW QU ESTIONS
Questions
As humans, our experiences are finite and limited. Consequently, most
Preview Questions at the of the important decisions in our lives are based on sample
(incomplete) information. What is a probability sampling
beginning of each chapter distribution? How will sampling distributions help us make good
give the student a taste of decisions based on incomplete information? (SECTION 7.1)

what types of questions There is an old saying: All roads lead to Rome. In statistics, we could
recast this saying: All probability distributions average out to be
can be answered with an normal distributions (as the sample size increases). How can
understanding of the we take advantage of this in our study of sampling
distributions? (SECTION 7.2)
knowledge to come.
Many issues in life come down to success or failure. In most cases,
we will not be successful all the time, so proportions of
successes are very important. What is the probability sampling
distribution for proportions? (SECTION 7.3)

FOCUS PROBLEM
FOCUS PROBLEMS Impulse Buying
Large Auditorium Shows: How Many
Will Attend?
1. For many years, Denver, as well as most other cities,
has hosted large exhibition shows in big auditoriums.
These shows include house and gardening shows, fish-
ing and hunting shows, car shows, boat shows, Native
American powwows, and so on. Information provided
by Denver exposition sponsors indicates that most
shows have an average attendance of about 8000 peo-
ple per day with an estimated standard deviation of
about 500 people. Suppose that the daily attendance
figures follow a normal distribution.
(a) What is the probability that the daily attendance
will be fewer than 7200 people?
(b) What is the probability that the daily attendance
will be more than 8900 people?
(c) What is the probability that the daily attendance
will be between 7200 and 8900 people?
36. Focus Problem: Exhibition Show Attendance The Focus Problem at the begin-
2. Most exhibition shows open in the morning and close ning of the chapter indicates that attendance at large exhibition shows in Denver
in the late evening. A study of Saturday arrival times averages about 8000 people per day, with standard deviation of about 500.
Assume that the daily attendance figures follow a normal distribution.
235
(a) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be fewer than 7200
people?
(b) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be more than 8900
people?
 Chapter Focus Problems (c) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be between 7200 and
8900 people?
The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by Focus 37. Focus Problem: Inverse Normal Distribution Most exhibition shows open in
the morning and close in the late evening. A study of Saturday arrival times
Problems, which serve as more specific examples of what showed that the average arrival time was 3 hours and 48 minutes after the doors
questions the student will soon be able to answer. The Focus opened, and the standard deviation was estimated at about 52 minutes. Assume
that the arrival times follow a normal distribution.
Problems are set within appropriate applications and are incor- (a) At what time after the doors open will 90% of the people who are coming to
porated into the end-of-section exercises, giving students the the Saturday show have arrived?
(b) At what time after the doors open will only 15% of the people who are com-
opportunity to test their understanding. ing to the Saturday show have arrived?
(c) Do you think the probability distribution of arrival times for Friday might
be different from the distribution of arrival times for Saturday? Explain.
xvi
 Direction and Purpose

SECTION 3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean

Focus Points  FOCUS POINTS
• Compute mean, median, and mode from raw data.
Each section opens with • Interpret what mean, median, and mode tell you.
bulleted Focus Points • Explain how mean, median, and mode can be affected by extreme data values.
• What is a trimmed mean? How do you compute it?
describing the primary • Compute a weighted average.
learning objectives of
The average price of an ounce of gold is $740. The Zippy car averages 39 miles per
the section. gallon on the highway.y A survey showed the average shoe size for women is size 8.
In each of the preceding statements, one number is used to describe the entire
sample or population. Such a number is called an average. There are many ways
to compute averages, but we will study only three of the major ones.
The easiest average to compute is the mode.

The mode of a data set is the value that occurs most frequently.
y

EXAMPLE 1 Mode
Count the letters in each word of this sentence and give the mode. The numbers
of letters in the words of the sentence are
5 3 7 2 4 4 2 4 8 3 4 3 4
Scanning the data, we see that 4 is the mode because more words have 4 letters
than any other number.r For larger data sets, it is useful to orderr⎯ or sort⎯
t the
data before scanning them for the mode.

Chapter Review

S U M MARY Organizing and presenting data are the main frequencies on the vertical axis. Ogives show
purposes of the branch of statistics called cumulative frequencies on the vertical axis.
descriptive statistics. Graphs provide an impor- Dotplots are like histograms except that the
tant way to show how the data are distributed. classes are individual data values.
• Frequency tables show how the data are dis- • Bar graphs, Pareto charts, and pie charts are
tributed within set classes. The classes are useful to show how quantitative or qualitative
chosen so that they cover all data values and data are distributed over chosen categories.
so that each data value falls within only one • Time-series graphs show how data change
class. The number of classes and the class over set intervals of time.
width determine the class limits and class
boundaries. The number of data values • Stem-and-leaf displays are an effective means
falling within a class is the class frequency. of ordering data and showing important
features of the distribution.
• A histogram is a graphical display of the
information in a frequency table. Classes are Graphs aren’t just pretty pictures. They help
shown on the horizontal axis, with corre- reveal important properties of the data distribu-
sponding frequencies on the vertical axis. tion, including the shape and whether or not
Relative-frequency histograms show relative there are any outliers.

 REVISED! Chapter Summaries

The Summary within each Chapter Review feature now also
appears in bulleted form, so students can see what they need
to know at a glance.

xvii
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