EDUCATION AND CONFLICT REVIEW 2019

Evidence hungry, theory light: Education

[email protected]

Introduction
Abstract Since the early 1990s, there has been considerable
This paper explores two alternatives for work to draw attention to the urgency of educational
supporting the idea that education is need during and after conflict and to increase
essential for building peace: 1) to prove this resources to education in conflict recovery. This
idea through empirical evidence; and 2) to stems from the conviction that education can and
substantiate it theoretically. It concludes will contribute towards building peace. Efforts to
that privileging evidence over theory can build the case for education have often focused on
fail to specify how education must change finding evidence to support, even to demonstrate,
in order to build peace and justice, allowing this conviction. There were and remain efforts to find
for the circulation of the idea that any and all and synthesise existing research that might provide
education will necessarily build peace, which evidence to support the ways in which education can
is currently unsupported either by empirical prevent conflict and build peace as indicated in the
evidence or theoretical argument. renewed interest in a Strategic Research Agenda to
guide the education in emergencies community (e.g.
Key Words Mendenhall, 2019). However, there is a considerable
Education in emergencies body of social theory that raises questions about
Evidence this conviction. The sociological cannon – Marx,
Gramsci, Bourdieu, Foucault, Du Bois, and others –
Justice
all offer explanations of the ways in which education
SDGs maintains and even deepens unequal power
relations. If these theorists are right, generating
evidence about the ways in which education might
build peace could be an impossible task.
In this short paper, I want to explore the two
alternatives for supporting such a conviction. The
first is by gathering evidence to demonstrate its
veracity and effectiveness. This is arguably the
path that the Education in Emergencies (EiE)
community has pursued, privileging studies and,
where possible, randomised controlled trials. The
other is by engaging with the theoretical ideas that
can underpin such a conviction – those ideas that
To cite this article: Paulson, J. (2019)
Evidence hungry, theory light: Education seek to illuminate how education might change
and conflict, SDG16, and aspirations from something that is unjust and perpetuates
for peace and justice, Education and injustice to something that isn’t and doesn’t. The
Conflict Review, 2, 33-37. implications of these ideas suggest changes that

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education might require in order to build peace. To or injustices in a society that might unify a group in
outline these two alternatives, I first look at a key rebellion) motivations for conflict, using a series of
piece of statistical evidence that is currently profiled proxy variables for each. Greed proxies include: the
by the Global Partnership for Education in their availability of primary commodities (proxy for ‘lootable
work to direct more resources towards education resources’), the proportion of young men between
in conflict. This striking statistic raises a number of the ages of 15-24 in a given society (since they are
questions, including around the nature of education considered those most likely to join a rebel force) and
that EiE actors should promote and the goals for years of schooling/ ‘endowment of education’ (which
promoting that form of education. Then, I turn to the is used a proxy for the income earning opportunities
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda and of young men in order to try to understand the
the theoretical ideas about peace and justice that are degree to which they have other opportunities aside
and are not present there, exploring the pathways from joining a rebellion). Proxy variables designed to
that these open and close for education to contribute represent grievances include the degree to which a
towards peace. The paper argues that in absence society is fractionalised by religion and by ethnicity,
of theoretically informed pathways for change, both measurements of income and asset (land only)
EiE work and SDG goals can fail to specify how inequality, regime type (as proxy for access to political
education must change in order to build peace and rights), and the rate of economic growth in the last
justice. This allows for circulation of the idea that any few years (as a proxy for government economic
and all education will necessarily build peace, which competence). With these variables as potential
is currently unsupported either by empirical evidence predictors of war, Collier and Hoeffler develop an
or theoretical argument (e.g. Harber, 2019). empirical model, using data on the outbreak of
conflict between 1965-1995, to test the explanatory
Making a case for education: power of greed and grievance variables for the
Demonstrating conviction with outbreak of conflict. The dataset includes 24 civil
evidence wars for which the researchers have full data, which
The Global Partnership for Education (GPE) (2018) they use in a first model, and a further 16 for which
recently announced on twitter that ‘each year of minor estimations or assumptions can complete the
education reduces the risk of conflict by 20%.’ data set, which they add to a second analysis.
Following GPE’s tweet questions were immediately As Collier (1999: 4) summarises, ‘the results
raised by researchers. So, five years of education overwhelmingly point to the importance of economic
means a 100% reduction of conflict, asked Robin arguments as opposed to grievance’, the outbreak
Shields. Prachi Srivastava recalled one of the early and maintenance of conflict is motivated more by
insights in education and conflict research, that economic incentives than by ‘group grievances
the content of education can just as easily foment beneath which inter-group hatreds lurk, often
conflict as it can prevent it, urging the recognition traced back through history’ (1999: 1). The youth
that not all and any education can prevent conflict. and education related variables are important for
I asked, where does this figure come from? What is arriving at these results, supporting the argument
the evidence to support such a statement? When I that opportunity costs matter – when young men
investigated further, exploring the ‘Data and Results’ have limited opportunities they will ‘greedily’ pick up
page of the GPE’s website where this claim is again arms as an opportunity for personal gain. Improve
stated, I found a single reference. their educational opportunities (and the overall
The reference was to a 1999 report written for educational endowment of a society) and this greed
the World Bank by the Oxford economist Paul motivation will decrease along with the opportunity
Collier. The report builds on his earlier quantitative costs of warfare. The 20% reduction in conflict
multi-country research into conflict and its causes, with each additional year of education, highlighted
from which he and colleague Anke Hoeffler (1998, by the GPE, comes from regression analysis using
see also 2004) advance their controversial greed means across variables (or, in other words, playing
versus grievance thesis. In this work Collier and with hypotheticals within the predictive model): ‘at
Hoeffler (1998; 2004) test economic (‘greed’) versus the mean risk of civil war, a one year increase in
grievance (real or perceived inequalities, problems, education per head reduces the risk of civil war by
20%’ (Collier and Hoeffler, 1999: 12).

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It is interesting that this hypothetical finding, nearly contexts can make a positive difference. Research
twenty years old still seems convincing enough to evidence such as Collier’s has been crucial for
support the messaging of an influential organisation building a confident, outward looking EiE community
like the GPE. The greed versus grievance argument who have been successfully raising the profile of
has been heavily disputed in economics, political EiE on international agendas (Winthrop and Matsui,
science, and development studies (e.g. Ballentine 2013). However, this case has largely been built
and Sherman, 2003; Burdel, 2003; Murshed and on the power of numbers, the impact of statistics
Tadjoeddin, 2008; Justino, 2009). Indeed, a general that can show both the scope of the problem
absence of educational opportunity for young people, and the degree to which education can help. The
or a situation in which inequalities in access and/or GPE’s statement, and the wider donor case for
outcome disadvantage particular groups in society EiE, is a largely atheoretical engagement both with
can itself be considered a grievance. Researchers the statistical evidence that drives it and with the
exploring horizontal inequalities as drivers of conflict debate around the production of that evidence. In
adopt this approach (e.g. Stewart, 2008; Østby, this example, the theoretical assumptions that lead
2008). For example, Øtsby (2008) explores the effects to education becoming a proxy variable matter. For
of vertical inequality (inequalities between individuals) Collier (1999), education is conceptualised at the level
and horizontal inequality (inequalities between of individual opportunity cost and ‘greed’, whereas
groups). In Øtsby’s model, years in education is an for Øtsby (2008) education is seen as an entitlement,
indicator of horizontal social inequality and she finds around which inequalities may create or exacerbate
this to be positively related to the outbreak of conflict, cleavages amongst social groups. Policy makers
therefore finding support for the grievance hypothesis attending to these findings while seeking to support
in contrast to Collier’s work. education in conflict prevention and recovery are
In addition to the leaps from hypothetical to actual therefore faced not just with competing statistics
and the academic argument around Collier’s but with different implications for the purposes of
conclusions, the 1999 observation around education – to enable individual opportunity versus
increases in education and decreases in conflict is to remedy inequality – and for the forms of education
not supported by the actual global developments to be implemented – education that delivers optimal
in education and rates of conflict over the last outcomes for individuals, particularly in terms of
twenty years. Levels of education have increased their earnings and assets, versus education that
substantially at a global level since the late nineties tries to level playing fields and provide an equality of
(e.g. UNESCO, 2015). This increase in education opportunity and outcome.
has not been accompanied by a reduction in armed
conflict, which has been increasing in recent years.
SDG16 and aspiring for peace and
Rates of armed conflict did fall over the 1990s and justice: Using theories of justice to
2000s. However, the escalation of several conflicts reach a conviction
in the mid-2010s combined with the outbreak of the Alongside the EiE community’s hunger for evidence,
Syrian conflict meant that since 2014 there was both and the atheoretical engagement with it, is a
an increase in the number of armed conflicts around wider, well-documented and growing production
the world (the highest since 1999) and in the number of indicators within international development,
of battle related deaths, with 2014 seeing the highest intensified since 2015 and the launch of the SDGs,
numbers in the post-1989 period (Pettersson and with its expanded menu of targets (e.g. King, 2017;
Wallensteen, 2015). Fukuda-Parr and McNeill, 2019). Peace and justice,
The fact that Collier’s work is still quoted is indicative which were never explicitly part of the Millennium
of the appetite for statistical evidence about Development Goals (MDG) agenda, are included
education and conflict in donor and international within the SDGs, in which SDG16 calls for peace,
agencies. The statistic, and others like it, serve justice and strong institutions. However, the text and
an important function for the EiE community – targets for SDG16 give little indication of how either
demonstrating the urgent need for education for peace or justice are conceptualised. For instance,
those affected by conflict and emergency and the most definitive statement about what peace and
also ‘proving’ that investment in education in such justice are in the introductory text is that ‘…to build

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more peaceful, inclusive societies, there needs to be of marginalised groups; for example in indicator
more efficient and transparent regulations put in place 16.7.1 which measures ‘proportions of positions (by
and comprehensive, realistic government budgets’ sex, age, persons with disabilities and population
(UN, 2018: np). Regulations and budgets seem groups) in public institutions’ and target 16.8
meagre against Galtung’s (1969) conceptualisation to ‘broaden and strengthen the participation of
of positive peace as the absence not just of physical developing countries in the institutions of global
forms of violence but also of structural and cultural governance’. Readers will be aware, however, that
violence. The current ‘lead indicator’ for measuring social justice theorists like Nancy Fraser (2003) do
progress against the attainment of the SDG16 goal not detach representation and recognition from
is ‘the number of victims of intentional homicides redistribution of resources and opportunities. Note
per 100,000 population, by sex and age.’ While that developing countries are expected to participate
intentional homicides are clearly part of violent, more, but not also to receive more, as redistributive
conflictive and unjust societies, their reduction alone justice would require. Nor are they afforded space
is not equivalent to peace, justice or inclusion. to create and shape agendas as reparative and
Peace, justice and inclusion are all richly theorised epistemic justice frameworks might enable.
concepts, with competing theoretical approaches Reparative, or historical justice embodies principles
offering quite different visions for their fulfilment. of redress and repair for past wrongs, such as those
What we can see implicitly in the SDG16 text are of slavery and colonialism (e.g. Rudolph, Sriprakash
indicators (the lead and several that follow it) focused and Gerrard, 2018), while epistemic justice would
around measuring a negative peace (the absence of seek to restore the damages done by the exclusion
violence), rather than a positive one (the presence of of individuals and groups as knowers and of their
the justice). The argument could be made that this knowledges as valid (e.g. Fricker, 2007) and by the
is a problem of measurement, that the presence of dominance of western epistemologies (e.g. de Sousa
justice, though clearly something we would have Santos, 2014).
reason to value, is difficult to measure or even So, within SDG16 we can identify theories legalistic,
‘immeasureable’ (Unterhalter, 2017; Biesta, 2011; retributive and social justice (with a particular focus
King, 2017). As well as a problem of measurement, on recognition and representation), but do not see
this is also or perhaps even more so, a problem conceptualisations of redistributive, reparative, or
of lack of engagement with theory. Justice is seen epistemic justice. Engagement with these theoretical
as immeasurable because the SDGs name it as ideas might enable the SDG16 agenda to move
an aspiration but don’t engage in any substantive beyond its current aspirations, which seem confined
discussion about what it might be. to a negative peace.
Justice has been thoroughly theorised and
debated – doing so is arguably one of the principle
Opening possibilities for aspiring
preoccupations of social theory. The 10 SDG16 towards (and measuring) peace and
targets go some way to specifying how justice is justice
envisioned within the SDG agenda – in addition to Returning to the idea of possible educational
mobilising security and negative peace oriented indicators for progress towards these forms of
reductions in violence, the targets seem to mobilise justice, it is not impossible to imagine measuring
a Rawlsian concept of justice (as a social contract the redistribution of educational opportunities and
between individuals) as they seek to ‘promote the outcomes (redistributive justice) by focusing on
rule of law’ (target 16.3) and measure some aspects resource allocation to the most disadvantaged and
of legal and institutional mechanisms for due process, on transforming inequalities in educational outcomes
such as proportions of unsentenced detainees across advantaged and disadvantaged social groups
within prison populations, and compliance with (already the focus of some of the indicators for
Paris Principles around independent human rights SDG4). Indicators of progress towards reparative,
organisations. historical and epistemic justice in education
Targets and indicators also show evidence of might focus on recognition of past injustice in
conceptualisations more oriented towards social curriculum, and in opening possibilities for historically
justice that prioritise representation and participation disadvantaged groups shape and create new

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curricula. Other possibilities include explorations into degree to which a curriculum affords opportunities
the legacies of educational institutions in benefiting for epistemic justice or the proportion of educational
from and perpetuating inequalities, and reparations resources dedicated towards redressing inequalities
to individuals and groups for educational exclusions, in outcomes for the most disadvantaged and
along with others. historically excluded. These measures are bound to
The point here, is that these multiple ways of be imperfect, as are most if, not all, of the current
theorising justice beyond the legalistic and retributive SDG indicators, but they would be illustrative of a
are not necessarily or inherently unmeasureable. theoretically grounded aspiration for forms of justice
Especially, if like Unterhalter (2017), we embrace that open opportunities for more than a negative
the idea of measurement as an exercise of peace. This would also offer a new form of evidence
negative capability, an exercise that sits with and to the EiE community, moving away from the need
acknowledges uncertainty, while trying to make to demonstrably prove that education can prevent
practical contributions towards capturing social conflict and build peace, towards the ongoing,
realities. Seen in this light, measurement is not an aspirational process of educational change towards
end in and of itself but a way of capturing collective justice.
aspirations and attempts to move towards achieving
them. It is imperfect but worth attempting for the
Author Bio
beauty of the goal rather than the precision of the Julia Paulson is a Senior Lecturer in Education at the
indicator. If we can mobilise the resources to track University of Bristol, where she is also Deputy Director
the number of people and businesses who paid of the Centre for Comparative and International
or were asked to pay a bribe (as SDG indicators Research in Education. Her research focuses on
16.5.1 and 16.5.2 require), it is not impossible to education and conflict, transitional justice, memory,
imagine or operationalise an indicator that tracks the and teaching about difficult and violent pasts.

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