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 COLD FRONT
CONFLICT AHEAD IN ARCTIC WATERS

DAV I D FA I R H A L L

FM.indd i 8/2/10 6:59:17 PM

 David Fairhall was the Guardian’s Defence Correspondent
throughout much of the ‘Cold War’ and has written extensively on
maritime subjects. His previous books include Russia Looks to the
Sea (1971), Black Tide Rising: the Wreck of the Amoco Cadiz (with
Philip Jordan, 1980) and Common Ground: the Story of Greenham
(I.B.Tauris, 2006).

‘A masterful assessment of the fast-changing Arctic’

– John Vidal, Environment Editor, the Guardian

‘Cold Front gets the story right! The story is not just about arctic sea ice
retreat, but also about globalization and natural resource development
driving future arctic marine transport’

– Lawson Brigham, Professor of Geography and Arctic Policy,

University of Alaska Fairbanks and Chair of the Arctic Council’s Arctic
Marine Shipping Assessment (2005–09)

‘Cold Front provides a fascinating and often intriguing account of the Arctic,
both its history and its future. For anyone who wants to know more about
the Arctic this well written and informative book provides both insight and
answers’

– The Rt Hon Lord David Owen CH

FM.indd ii 8/2/10 6:59:17 PM

 “For my grandchildren,
and their grandma Pam”

FM.indd iii 8/2/10 6:59:17 PM

 Published in 2010 by I.B.Tauris & Co. Ltd
6 Salem Road, London W2 4BU
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
www.ibtauris.com

Copyright © 2010 David Fairhall

The right of David Fairhall to be identified as the author of this work has been
asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
1988.

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or any
part thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of
the publisher.

ISBN: 978 1 84885 384 3

A full CIP record for this book is available from the British Library

Typeset in Perpetua by Integra Software Services Pvt. Ltd., India

Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham

FM.indd iv 8/2/10 6:59:17 PM

 C ONTENTS

List of Illustrations x
List of Maps xi
Acknowledgements xii
Foreword xv
Preface xvii
Introduction xx

The Arctic Arena 1

Thickness matters 3
Coming in from the cold 5
An alarming opportunity 7
The barking dog 10
Tipping point 12

Frozen Assets 15
Russian company 16
Lamp oil and corsets 17
Cod wars 18
Striking it rich 20
A state within a state 23
Turning off the gas 24
A different ball game 25

The Law of the Sea 27

An altruistic tradition 28
Going to the ball 29

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 COLD FRONT

Within cannon shot 31

Rights of passage 32
On the shelf 32
Who owns the North Pole? 33
A Russian fist 37
Significant geology 39
Fishing for facts 41
Ice bears that go bump in the night 42
Rights of access 44

Cold Warfare 47
‘The most valuable piece of real estate in NATO’ 48
A helping hand 49
Island of the donkey’s ears 50
The sailor Czar 51
Krushchev’s herrings 53
A hint of violence 55
Wakening bear 56
The silent service 58
Polar snapshots 60
Coming up for air 62

East by North 63
‘As plausible as the English Channel’ 63
Gin on the rocks 64
Wishful thinking 67
Spared the gallows 68
Logistical nightmare 70
Filling in the blanks 72
‘The man who ate his boots’ 74
Dip circle 75
Creating a Victorian legend 76
Home from home 78

vi

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 CONTENTS

Ice trap 80
No English gentleman . . . 81
‘My mission on earth’ 82
Two skeletons, some chocolate and a little tea 83
Going native 84

Short Cuts 87
First night 89
Canalside view 90
Second time unlucky 91

Bolsheviks in Cold Waters 93

With Stalin’s compliments 96
Wonderland 97
Wishful thinking 98
‘Strength through joy’ for Stakhanovites 99
The Bakayev plan 100
Arctic gateway 101
Atomic relations 102
Czar Bomba 103
Half-life 104
‘You get used to it’ 105

Breaking the Ice 107

A nuclear pioneer 109
Out of the ordinary 110
A difficult birth 112
Atomic takeover 113
A polar giant 115
Back to front 116
Nuclear tourism 118
‘Water where it didn’t use to be’ 119

vii

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 COLD FRONT

Ottawa’s bribe 121

Polar attitudes 122

North-West Passage 125

Inuit know-how 126
An icebreaking leviathan 128
Arctic surgery 129
Pyrrhic victory 130
‘Inflamed nationalists’ 131
The ‘arctic exception’ 132
‘Use it or lose it’ 134
A political voice 135
Mackenzie’s oil 137
What the whales will hear 138
Arctic bridge 139
Not just polar bears 140

North-East Passage 141

Baffling statistics 143
Ice cellar 145
Late developer 146
No need to queue 147
Second refusal 149
Practical doubts 151
Turn of the tide 152
Living on borrowed time 153
Eco – tourism 155
Conquest and assimilation 157
Great expectations 158
‘A resource base for the twenty-first century’ 159
Ice shuttle 161
Mother of all icebreakers 162

viii

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 CONTENTS

Across the Top of the World 165

Changing course 169
Reality check 171
Hidden beauty 172

Meltdown 175
Alarm call 178
Abruptness 182
From meltdown to shutdown? 183

Possible Outcomes 187

Double negative 188
Dangerous waters 190
Shipping forecast 194

Northern Poll 197

A Chronology 205

Index 211

ix

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 L IST OF I LLUSTRATIONS

1. An endangered species. 4
2. The Arctic holds perhaps a quarter of the world’s
remaining oil and gas (Courtesy of BP). 21
3. The old coal-loading berth, Longyearbyen
(Photo by author). 43
4. HMS Tireless at the North Pole-a routine operation!
(Courtesy of Royal Navy). 60
5. A Victorian legend: John Franklin (Courtesy of Peter Lewis). 77
6. Nuclear icebreaker Rossia followed by freighter
Beluga Foresight on Northern Sea Route,
September 2009 (Courtesy of Beluga Shipping). 112
7. The double-acting ship Norilsky Nickel –
is this the future of arctic operations?
(Courtesy of Alexey Shtrek). 116
8. View from the bridge of Beluga Fraternity, navigating
the North-East Passage, September 2009 (Courtesy
of Beluga Shipping). 171
9. Will this container ship leaving Felixstowe one
day head N through the Arctic, not S through
Suez? (Courtesy of Port of Felixstowe). 192

FM.indd x 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 L IST OF M APS

1. A birds-eye view of the Arctic Ocean. xix

2. Trans-Polar Drifts. 8
3. The Arctic’s Natural Resources. 20
4. Legal control of the Arctic Ocean’s resources. 34
5. Two Arctic Routes from the Atlantic to the Pacific. 66
6. Franklin’s Last Voyage. 78
7. Siberian Waters. 94
8. Possible routes through the N-W Passage. 126
9. Routeing options through the N-E Passage. 142
10. The Arctic Option. 166
11. 2007 – A Record Year for the Summer Ice Melt. 177
12. Summer Ice Extent – 2009. 180

xi

FM.indd xi 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Many busy people have given of their time to help with this project,
but my thanks go first to my wife Pamela, without whose patient
support I could not have made space for it.
Those who contributed directly by (bravely) offering a specific
prediction for 2040 are listed in Northern Poll. I am grateful to all of
them, but several went beyond that to offer advice from their wide
experience and responded generously to my innumerable technical
queries – for example, Lawson Brigham and Kimmo Juurmaa regard-
ing icebreakers, Martin Pratt on legal matters and Mark Serreze with
his crucial assessments of the melting ice cap.
Among them, I am especially grateful to Peter Wadhams, who
not only found time within his crowded schedule to explain the
wider implications of climatic change in the Arctic, and point out
valuable sources, but also to contribute his foreword.
Without explanatory maps, much of this book’s narrative would
have been difficult to follow. I was therefore particularly pleased to
be able to enlist the services of the illustrator Kate Robinson and
grateful for the excellent, lucid work she produced. Outlines were
obtained from www.d-maps.com.
Within the maritime world, I turned for advice to Simon Bennett,
Peter Godfrey and an old friend – David Taylor. It was David who
introduced me to Peter Wright, who gave unstinting support from
start to finish of this project – suggesting avenues I might explore
and in particular introducing me to the INSROP/ARCOP studies
to which he had contributed. His friendly help was immensely
welcome.

xii

FM.indd xii 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Professor Lawson Brigham – icebreaker captain turned academic –

alerted me to the more recent AMSA, a wider-ranging study which
he chaired. But more than that, he gave me the benefit of his vast
personal experience and steered my own investigations round sev-
eral possible pitfalls.
Given the Russians’ central role in all this, I could not have
gone far without the access to their official thinking provided by
Vladimir Vasilyev at the Central Marine Research and Design Insti-
tute (CNIIMF) in St. Petersburg. He directed me to relevant research
and replied promptly to endless e-mails, dealing patiently with
everything from nuclear icebreaking strategy to the eccentricities
of Russian statistics.
The staff of the National Maritime Museum in Greenwich
helped with other queries and the search for suitable photo-
graphic images – as did Beluga Shipping in Bremen, BP, the Port of
Felixstowe and the Royal Navy. The photographer Peter Lewis, and
Alexey Shtrek, from CNIIMF, kindly gave permission to reproduce
their own images.
Reassurance as to the relevance of chaos theory came from the
mathematician Grant Hillier.
In attempting this quick survey of the arctic future, I am of
course indebted to many others – historians, scientists, economists,
engineers, lawyers and journalists (especially those on my own
former newspaper, the Guardian) – who have written with more
specialised expertise on various aspects of this subject. For readers
wishing to explore it further, the multinational INSROP/ARCOP
studies referred to in the text (dealing with the North-East Passage),
and the Arctic Council’s wider, four-year AMSA assessment, provide
much essential background. I also found The Soviet Maritime Arctic
(Naval Institute Press, 1991) and Politics of the Northwest Passage
(McGill-Queen’s University Press, 1987) particularly helpful, and
I referred back to the pioneering work of the late Dr. Terence
Armstrong – for example, his study of The Russians in the Arctic

xiii

FM.indd xiii 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 COLD FRONT

(Methuen, 1958) – and Tim Greve’s official guide to Svalbard, a book

I took with me when visiting the archipelago (Grondahl, 1975).
The fascinating and still controversial story of Franklin’s death
while trying to navigate the North-West Passage has produced a
flurry of books in recent years – for example, James P. Delgado’s
Across the Top of the World (Douglas & McIntyre and British
Museum Press , 1999), Ken McGoogan’s Fatal Passage (HarperCollins
Bantam, 2002), and Andrew Lambert’s Franklin: Tragic Hero of
Polar Exploration (Faber & Faber, 2009), each offering a different,
thoroughly researched perspective. However, my own favourite
reference for anything concerned with arctic exploration – if you
can find a copy – is Jeannette Mirsky’s To the North (The Viking
Press, 1934).

xiv

FM.indd xiv 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 F OREWORD

This book is a wide-ranging survey of the role of the Arctic Ocean in

our present society, and the changes that global warming is going
to bring to the Ocean and to our own lives. The impact of arctic
warming extends far beyond the Arctic.
I first encountered this ocean in the summer of 1970, when
my ship, the Canadian research icebreaker ‘Hudson’, sailed through
Bering Strait and entered the Beaufort Sea to accomplish an ocean-
ographic survey of the region prior to transiting the North-West
Passage and completing the first circumnavigation of the Americas.
The survey was very difficult. All along the coastline, from Alaska to
the Mackenzie delta, the Beaufort ‘Sea’ was really just a narrow slot
of temporarily open water, 80 miles wide, in which we could carry
out our ocean survey and tow our instruments. Beyond it, the arctic
pack ice stretched across to Siberia. Yet in the summer of 2007, a
similar ship would be able to operate freely across almost the entire
ocean; the Beaufort Sea was ice-free and so, for the first time ever,
were more than 1 million square kilometres of ocean terrain in the
central Arctic.
What has caused this change? The scientific finger points at
global warming. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as lower lati-
tudes, and the higher average air temperature means that the ice
grows less during the winter and experiences a longer melt season
in summer, when the protective blanket of snow melts and exposes
the ice surface to rapid solar-driven decay. Increased heat also
impinges on the ice bottom from the ocean, because the under-
lying layer of warmer water that flows in from the Atlantic has

xv

FM.indd xv 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 COLD FRONT

heated by about a degree. Warmer water is also entering through

Bering Strait, and a changed pattern of winds is moving ice out of
the Arctic Ocean more rapidly, so it has less opportunity to turn
into multiyear ice, that thick and rugged ice mass which is a chal-
lenge to icebreakers. In the summer of 2007, a buoy measurement
showed 2 metres of bottom melt off a thick ice floe, in a region
where first-year ice had reached only 1.5 metres in thickness. Small
wonder that all the first-year ice disappeared. The measurements
that I have made from British submarines from 1971 to 2007 have
shown that the thinning of ice due to global warming has amounted
to more than 40 per cent in 36 years, turning the Arctic ice pack
from a rugged solid cap over the top of our planet into a thin shell,
like an albatross’s egg thinned by DDT that will suddenly just crack
and break up. Many of us feel that this tipping point has now been
reached, and the retreat of arctic ice will now accelerate so that in
20–30 years the summer will be completely ice-free.
The enormous implications of this change for human life and
the economics of our society are explored in this book. We must
get used to the idea that the top end of our planet in summer
has become blue instead of white when viewed from space, and
that we in the northern hemisphere, whether it be Europe, Asia or
North America, are after all living around a real ocean and not an
ice cap.

Peter Wadhams
Professor of Ocean Physics, Department of Applied Mathematics
and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge
Formerly Director, Scott Polar Research Institute

xvi

FM.indd xvi 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

 P REFACE

Summer comes late in the Arctic. At the back end of August 2008, I
came across a newspaper report that both coastal passages across
the Arctic Ocean were now free of ice. The news broke from a per-
sistent groundswell of warnings that the polar ice cap was melting.
For a journalist like myself, or indeed anyone with a lifelong interest
in maritime affairs, it suggested an amazing possibility – that after
centuries of cruelly disappointed exploration, the Arctic might soon
provide a usable short cut between Europe and China, a North-East
or a North-West passage.
It was this thought that triggered the investigation presented in
this book. But of course everything turned on whether the scientists
were correct in predicting an ice-free arctic summer, and how soon
that might occur. The startlingly cold northern winter of 2009–10,
for example, has sent them hurrying back to their computer models.
Moreover, the possible outcome, while seen by some as an oppor-
tunity, was regarded by most of those actually studying the under-
lying trends – the meteorologists, oceanographers and climate
change specialists – as a potential disaster. For them, the Arctic was
a dangerous ‘amplifier’ of global warming.
I need to make clear, therefore, that this is not an exercise, at
second or third hand, in predicting the speed of the Arctic’s climatic
change. It takes the various hotly debated scientific forecasts merely
as a starting point from which to discuss the implications – physical,
political, economic and military – of a potentially ice-free polar sea.
The sociological repercussions for the Arctic’s indigenous peoples

xvii

FM.indd xvii 8/2/10 6:59:18 PM

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