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SAMPLING STATISTICS

WAYNE A. FULLER
Iowa State University

WILEY
A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
SAMPLING STATISTICS
WILEY SERIES IN SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Established in Part by WALTER
A. SHEWHART S. WILKS
AND SAMUEL

Editors: Robert M. Groves, Graham Kalton, J. N. K. Rao, Norbert Schwarz,

Christopher Skinner

A complete list of the titles in this series appears at the end of this volume.
SAMPLING STATISTICS

WAYNE A. FULLER
Iowa State University

WILEY
A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
Copyright 0 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData:

Fuller, Wayne A.
Sampling statistics /Wayne A. Fuller.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-470-45460-2 (cloth)
1. Sampling (Statistics) 2. Estimation theory. 3. Mathematical statistics. I. Title.
QA276.6.F84 2009
51 9 . 5 ' 2 4 ~ 2 2 2009008874

Printed in the United States of America.

1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS

Preface ix

List Of Tables xi

List Of Principal Results xiii

List Of Examples xv

1 PROBABILITY SAMPLING FROM A FINITE UNIVERSE 1

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Probability Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2.1 Basic properties of probability samples . . . . . . . 2
1.2.2 Poisson sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2.3 Stratified sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.2.4 Systematic sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.2.5 Replacement sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.2.6 Rejective sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.2.7 Cluster samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.2.8 Two-stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.3 Limit Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.3.1 Sequences of estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.3.2 Central limit theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
1.3.3 Functions of means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1.3.4 Approximations for complex estimators . . . . . . . 64
1.3.5 Quantiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
1.4 Methods of Unequal Probability Sample Selection . . . . . 72
1.5 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
1.6 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
1.7 Appendix 1A: Some Order Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

2 USE OF AUXILIARY INFORMATION IN ESTIMATION 95

2.1 Ratio Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
V
Vi CONTENTS

2.2 Regression Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

2.2.1 Simple random sampling under the normal model . 100
2.2.2 General populations and complex samples . . . . . 106
2.2.3 Poststratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
2.2.4 Residuals for variance estimation . . . . . . . . . . 126
2.3 Models and Regression Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.3.1 Linear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.3.2 Nonlinear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
2.4 Regression and Stratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
2.5 Estimation with Conditional Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . 144
2.6 Regression for Two-Stage Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
2.7 Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
2.8 Weight Bounds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
2.9 Maximum Likelihood and Raking Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . 165
2.10 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
2.11 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
2.12 Appendix 2A: Missouri Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

3 USE OF AUXILIARY INFORMATION IN DESIGN 181

3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
3.1.1 Selection probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
3.1.2 Strata formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
3.1.3 Stratification and variance estimation . . . . . . . . 199
3.1.4 Controlled two-per-stratum design . . . . . . . . . 203
3.1.5 Design for subpopulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
3.2 Multiple-Stage Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
3.2.1 Cluster sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
3.2.2 Two-stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
3.3 Multiple-Phase Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
3.3.1 Two-phase samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
3.3.2 Three-phase samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
3.3.3 Separate samples with common characteristics . . . 234
3.3.4 Composite estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
3.4 Rejective sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
3.5 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
3.6 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244

4 REPLICATION VARIANCE ESTIMATION 25 1

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
4.2 Jackknife Variance Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
4.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
4.2.2 Stratified samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
 CONTENTS vii

4.2.3 Quantiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

4.3 Balanced Half-Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
4.4 Two-Phase Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
4.5 TheBootstrap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
4.6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
4.7 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
5 MODELS USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SAMPLING 281
5.1 Nonresponse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
5.1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
5.1.2 Response models and weighting . . . . . . . . . . . 282
5.2 Imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
5.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
5.2.2 Fractional imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
5.2.3 Nearest-neighbor imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
5.2.4 Imputed estimators for domains . . . . . . . . . . . 302
5.3 Variance Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
5.4 Outliers and Skewed Populations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
5.5 Small Area Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
5.6 Measurement Error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
5.6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
5.6.2 Simple estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
5.6.3 Complex estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
5.7 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
5.8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334

6 ANALYTIC STUDIES 341

6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
6.2 Models and Simple Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
6.3 Estimation of Regression Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
6.3.1 Ordinary least squares and tests for bias . . . . . . . 349
6.3.2 Consistent estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
6.4 Instrumental variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
6.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
6.4.2 Weighted instrumental variable estimator . . . . . . 371
6.4.3 Instrumental variables for weighted samples . . . . 372
6.4.4 Instrumental variable pretest estimators . . . . . . . 374
6.5 Nonlinear models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
6.6 Cluster and multistage samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
6.7 Pretest procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
6.8 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388
6.9 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Viii CONTENTS

REFERENCES 39 1

Index 449
PREFACE

This book developed out of a desire for a sampling course that would fit
easily into a graduate program in statistics. Survey sampling is a relatively
young discipline, achieving acceptance in the 1940’s and 1950’s, primarily for
official statistics. As the discipline has matured, analytic use of survey data
has increased inside and outside government. Also statistical models, such as
those for nonresponse and for small area estimation, are now considered part
of survey methodology. As a result, the overlap between survey sampling and
other areas of statistics has increased, and the mutual dependence makes it
important that survey sampling be an integral part of statistics.
Originally, survey sampling was differentiated from other areas by the size
of the data sets and by the number of estimates produced. In such a setting
survey statisticians prefer techniques with broad applicability, and that require
a minimum of assumptions. Procedures are sought that are nearly design
unbiased, but no claim of optimality is made for a particular statistic. These
standard survey techniques are introduced in Chapter One. I have adopted a
tenor and notation similar to statistics texts in other specialities to make the
material more accessible to those with limited exposure to survey sampling.
Some of the technical material in Section 1.3 can be omitted or covered at
a later point. Basic sampling concepts are introduced in a way to facilitate
application of model based procedures to survey samples. Likewise, models
are used in constructing estimators and in discussions of designs in Chapter
Two and Chapter Three, respectively. Chapter Five is devoted to procedures,
such as nonresponse adjustment and small area estimation, where models play
a central role. To be comfortable with the material the reader should have
completed courses in the theory of statistics and in linear regression.
Survey data are now regularly used for the estimation of a parameter 0 of
a subject matter model. Such estimation is discussed in Chapter Six. The
problem will be familiar to most statisticians, but complex survey designs
complicate the analysis.
Our primary experience has been with survey samples of populations such
as the residents of the state of Iowa or the land area of the United States.
Thus our unconscious frame of reference will be such surveys. Likewise

ix
X PREFACE

the majority of our experience has been in the production of “general use”
databases rather than analytic study of a limited number of characteristics.
I am indebted to a number of former students, coworkers, and friends for
corrections and improvements. F. Jay Breidt made sizeable contributions to
Chapter One. Emily Berg, Yu Wu, Nicholas Beyler, and Pushpal Mukhopad-
hyay assisted in computing examples. Chris Skinner, Jae-Kwang Kim, and
Mike Hidiroglou made suggestions that led to numerous improvements. Jean
Opsomer used portions of the manuscript in his class and provided valuable
feed back. I am particularly grateful to Jason Legg who used the manuscript
in a class, corrected a number of errors and contributed to Chapter Three and
Chapter Five.
Appreciation is expressed for the support provided by the Center for Survey
Statistics and Methodology and the Department of Statistics, Iowa State Uni-
versity. I thank Glenda Ashley and Sherri Martinez for typing the manuscript
and Ozkan Zengin for editing and for technical support on H T g .

Wayne A. Fuller

Ames, Iowa
January 2009
List of Tables

1.1 Selection of a Systematic Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

1.2 Missouri NRI Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
1.3 Design for Samples of Size 3 from a Population of Size 5 . . 80
1.4 Poisson Sample of Managers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
2.1 Alternative Estimates for Missouri County . . . . . . . . . . 120
2.2 Weights for Alternative Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
2.3 Regression Estimators for a Stratified Sample . . . . . . . . 143
2.4 Stratified Two-Stage Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
2.5 Regression Weights for Stratified Two-Stage Sample . . . . 153
2.6 Primary Sampling Unit Totals and Regression Weights . . . 156
2.7 Poststratified Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
2.8 NRI Data from Missouri . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
3.1 Anticipated Variances of Stratified Estimator Under
Alternative Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
3.2 Variance of Stratified Sample Mean Under Alternative Designs 200
3.3 Variance of Estimated Variance of Stratified Sample Mean
Under Alternative Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
3.4 Alternative Subpopulation Sample Allocations . . . . . . . . 206
3.5 Variances Under Alternative Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
3.6 Data for Two-Phase Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
3.7 Variance of One-Period Change as a Function of Common
Elements and Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
3.8 Variance of Mean as a Function of Common Elements and
Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
3.9 Selection Probabilities for a Population of Size 100 . . . . . 243
3.10 Population Analysis of Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
3.11 Two-Stage Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
4.1 Replication Weights for a Stratified Sample . . . . . . . . . 256
4.2 Alternative Replication Weights for a Stratified Sample . . . 257
4.3 Two-Phase Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
4.4 Statistics for Jackknife Replicates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
4.5 Phase 2 Replicate Weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
xi
Xii LIST OF TABLES

4.6 Adjusted Phase 2 Replicate Weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271

4.7 Bootstrap Weights for a Stratified Sample . . . . . . . . . . 273
5.1 Sample with Missing Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
5.2 Fractionally Imputed Data Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
5.3 Jackknife Replicate Cell Means for y-Variable . . . . . . . . 294
5.4 Jackknife Replicate Fractions for z-Categories . . . . . . . . 294
5.5 Jackknife Weights for Fractionally Imputed Data . . . . . . 295
5.6 DataSet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
5.7 Jackknife Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
5.8 Naive Weights for Respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
5.9 Jackknife Weights for Fractional Imputation . . . . . . . . . 302
5.10 Final Weights for Respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
5.11 Respondent Weights for Alternative Estimators . . . . . . . 304
5.12 Weights for Replicate Variance Estimation . . . . . . . . . . 307
5.13 Data on Iowa Wind Erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
5.14 Predictions with Sum Constrained to Regression Estimator . 323
6.1 Birthweight and Age Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
6.2 Stratified Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
6.3 Canadian Workplace Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
6.4 Monte Carlo Results for Size 0.05 Pretest (10,000 Samples) . 386
6.5 Monte Carlo Properties of t-statistic for Pretest Estimator . . 388
List of Principal Results

1.2.1 Mean and variance of design linear estimators . . . . . . . 6

1.2.2 Estimated variance of design linear estimators . . . . . . . 11
1.2.3 Optimum design for Horvitz-Thompson estimator and iid
random variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.2.4 Optimum design and estimator for normal populations . . . 15
1.2.5 Properties of Bernoulli samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2.6 Optimal allocation for a stratified sample . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.3.1 Simple random sample from iid sample is iid sample . . . 37
1.3.2 Limit normal distribution of sample mean under iid model . 42
1.3.3 Limit normal distribution of sample mean for Poisson
sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
1.3.4 Limit distribution for sample mean of a simple random
nonreplacement sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
1.3.5 Limit distribution for estimates from finite populations that
are themselves random samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
1.3.6 Limit distribution of estimated superpopulation parameters 54
1.3.7 Distribution of function of means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
1.3.8 Distribution of ratio of means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
1.3.9 Limit distributions for complex estimators . . . . . . . . . 64
1.3.10 Distribution of quantiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
1.4.1 Superiority of a nonreplacement sampling scheme to a
replacement sampling scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
1.6.1 Almost sure convergence of estimators of mean . . . . . . . 86
1.7.1 Chebyshev’s inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.2.1 Limiting distribution of estimated regression coefficients . . 108
2.2.2 Limiting distribution of estimated regression coefficients,
simple random sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
2.2.3 Design consistency of regression estimator of the mean . . 114
2.2.4 Minimum design variance regression estimator . . . . . . . 121
2.3.1 Design consistency of model regression predictor . . . . . . 129
2.3.2 Consistency of nonlinear model predictor . . . . . . . . . . 138
2.7.1 Properties of calibration estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
xiii
xiv LIST OF PRINCIPAL RESULTS

3.1.1 Optimal selection probabilities for regression estimator . . 184

3.3.1 Properties of two-phase estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
4.2.1 Jackknife for differentiable functions of means . . . . . . . 254
4.4.1 Replicate variance estimation for two-phase samples . . . . 263
5.1.1 Regression adjustment for nonresponse . . . . . . . . . . . 284
6.3.1 Weighted analytic regression estimates . . . . . . . . . . . 356
List of Examples

1.2.1 Unequal probability sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

1.2.2 Two-stage sample from NRI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
1.3.1 Distribution in finite populations generated by binomial . . 36
1.3.2 Sequence of samples of samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1.3.3 Conditional properties of statistics from sequence of samples 39
1.3.4 Sequence of finite populations created from a fixed sequence 40
1.3.5 Sequence of populations from a random sequence . . . . . 41
2.1.1 Ratio estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
2.2.1 Regression estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
2.3.1 Alternative model estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
2.4.1 Population variance of stratified regression estimator . . . . 141
2.4.2 Weights for stratified regression estimator . . . . . . . . . . 143
2.6.1 Regression estimation for two-stage sample . . . . . . . . . 150
3.1.1 Sample designs for workplaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
3.1.2 Stratification and variance estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
3.1.3 Design for national and state estimates . . . . . . . . . . . 207
3.2.1 Alaska secondary units per primary sampling unit . . . . . 212
3.3.1 Two-phase sample allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
3.3.2 Two-phase estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
3.3.3 Two-phase estimation with auxiliary information . . . . . . 229
3.4.1 Rejective Poisson sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
4.2.1 Jackknife for stratified sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
4.4.1 Jackknife for two-phase sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
4.5.1 Bootstrap for stratified sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
5.2.1 Fractional imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
5.2.2 Nearest neighbor imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
5.2.3 Imputation for domains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
5.3.1 Replication variance estimation based on local approximation 307
5.5.1 Small area estimation for NRI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
5.5.2 Constrained small area estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
5.6.1 Interviewer effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
5.6.2 Calibration with variables subject to measurement error . . 33 1
xv
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