4.

3-MYP-Probability (Medium, Investigations, DC )-Test01

[107 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 17]

A company performs an experiment on the efficiency of a liquid that is used to
detect a nut allergy.

A group of 60 people took part in the experiment. In this group 26 are allergic to
nuts. One person from the group is chosen at random.

A second person is chosen from the group.

When the liquid is added to a person’s blood sample, it is expected to turn blue if
the person is allergic to nuts and to turn red if the person is not allergic to nuts.

The company claims that the probability that the test result is correct is 98% for
people who are allergic to nuts and 95% for people who are not allergic to nuts.

It is known that 6 in every 1000 adults are allergic to nuts.

This information can be represented in a tree diagram.

An adult, who was not part of the original group of 60, is chosen at random and
tested using this liquid.
 The liquid is used in an office to identify employees who might be allergic to
nuts. The liquid turned blue for 38 employees.

(a) Find the probability that this person is not allergic to nuts. [2]

(b) Find the probability that both people chosen are not allergic to
nuts. [2]

(c) Copy and complete the tree diagram. [3]

(d) Find the probability that this adult is allergic to nuts and the
liquid turns blue. [2]

(e) Find the probability that the liquid turns blue. [3]

(f ) Find the probability that the tested adult is allergic to nuts

given that the liquid turned blue. [3]

(g) Estimate the number of employees, from this 38, who are
allergic to nuts. [2]

2. [Maximum mark: 15]

Contestants in a TV gameshow try to get through three walls by passing through
doors without falling into a trap. Contestants choose doors at random.
If they avoid a trap they progress to the next wall.
If a contestant falls into a trap they exit the game before the next contestant
plays.
Contestants are not allowed to watch each other attempt the game.
The first wall has four doors with a trap behind one door.

Ayako is a contestant.
Natsuko is the second contestant.

The second wall has five doors with a trap behind two of the doors.

The third wall has six doors with a trap behind three of the doors.

The following diagram shows the branches of a probability tree diagram for a
contestant in the game.
(a) Write down the probability that Ayako avoids the trap in this
wall. [1]

(b) Find the probability that only one of Ayako and Natsuko falls
into a trap while attempting to pass through a door in the first
wall. [3]

(c) Copy the probability tree diagram and write down the relevant
probabilities along the branches. [3]

(d) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this

contestant fell into a trap while attempting to pass through a
door in the second wall. [2]

(e) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this

contestant fell into a trap. [3]

(f ) 120 contestants attempted this game.

Find the expected number of contestants who fell into a trap

while attempting to pass through a door in the third wall. [3]
3. [Maximum mark: 16]
In a company it is found that 25 % of the employees encountered traffic on their
way to work. From those who encountered traffic the probability of being late
for work is 80 %.

From those who did not encounter traffic, the probability of being late for work
is 15 %.

The tree diagram illustrates the information.

The company investigates the different means of transport used by their

employees in the past year to travel to work. It was found that the three most
common means of transport used to travel to work were public transportation
(P ), car (C ) and bicycle (B ).

The company finds that 20 employees travelled by car, 28 travelled by bicycle

and 19 travelled by public transportation in the last year.

Some of the information is shown in the Venn diagram.

 There are 54 employees in the company.

(a) Write down the value of a. [1]

(b) Write down the value of b. [1]

(c) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an

employee encountered traffic and was late for work. [2]

(d) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an

employee was late for work. [3]

(e) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an

employee encountered traffic given that they were late for
work. [3]

(f ) Find the value of x. [1]

(g) Find the value of y. [1]

(h) Find the number of employees who, in the last year, did not
travel to work by car, bicycle or public transportation. [2]

(i) Find n ((C ∪ B) ∩ P ).

′
[2]

4. [Maximum mark: 14]

160 students attend a dual language school in which the students are taught
only in Spanish or taught only in English.
A survey was conducted in order to analyse the number of students studying
Biology or Mathematics. The results are shown in the Venn diagram.

Set S represents those students who are taught in Spanish.

Set B represents those students who study Biology.

Set M represents those students who study Mathematics.

A student from the school is chosen at random.

(a) Find the number of students in the school that are taught in
Spanish. [2]

(b) Find the number of students in the school that study

Mathematics in English. [2]
 (c) Find the number of students in the school that study both
Biology and Mathematics. [2]

(d) Write down n (S ∩ (M ∪ B)). [1]

(e) Write down n (B ∩ M ∩ S ).

′
[1]

(f ) Find the probability that this student studies Mathematics. [2]

(g) Find the probability that this student studies neither Biology
nor Mathematics. [2]

(h) Find the probability that this student is taught in Spanish, given
that the student studies Biology. [2]

5. [Maximum mark: 19]

A medical centre is testing patients for a certain disease. This disease occurs in
5% of the population.

They test every patient who comes to the centre on a particular day.

It is intended that if a patient has the disease, they test “positive”, and if a patient
does not have the disease, they test “negative”.

However, the tests are not perfect, and only 99% of people who have the
disease test positive. Also, 2% of people who do not have the disease test
positive.

The tree diagram shows some of this information.

Write down the value of

Use the tree diagram to find the probability that a patient selected at random

The staff at the medical centre looked at the care received by all visiting patients
on a randomly chosen day. All the patients received at least one of these services:
they had medical tests (M ), were seen by a nurse (N ), or were seen by a doctor (
D). It was found that:

78 had medical tests,

45 were seen by a nurse;

30 were seen by a doctor;

9 had medical tests and were seen by a doctor and a nurse;

18 had medical tests and were seen by a doctor but were not seen by a

nurse;
11 patients were seen by a nurse and had medical tests but were not seen

by a doctor;
2 patients were seen by a doctor without being seen by nurse and without

having medical tests.

(a) State the sampling method being used. [1]

(b) a. [1]

(c) b. [1]

(d) c. [1]

(e) d. [1]
 (f ) will not have the disease and will test positive. [2]

(g) will test negative. [3]

(h) has the disease given that they tested negative. [3]

(i) The medical centre finds the actual number of positive results in
their sample is different than predicted by the tree diagram.
Explain why this might be the case. [1]

(j) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this information, placing all

relevant information on the diagram. [3]

(k) Find the total number of patients who visited the centre during
this day. [2]

6. [Maximum mark: 12]

On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The
amusement park’s main attractions are rollercoasters (R), water slides (W ), and
virtual reality rides (V ).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are
shown in the Venn diagram.
 A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.
(a) Find the value of a. [2]

(b) Find the value of b. [2]

(c) Find the number of students who visited at least two types of
main attraction. [2]

(d) Write down the value of n( R ∩ W) . [1]

(e) Find the probability that a randomly selected student

visited the rollercoasters. [2]

(f ) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited

the virtual reality rides. [1]

(g) Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii)
are independent. Justify your reasoning. [2]

7. [Maximum mark: 14]

Arianne plays a game of darts.

The distance that her darts land from the centre, O, of the board can be
modelled by a normal distribution with mean 10 cm and standard deviation
3 cm.

Find the probability that

Each of Arianne’s throws is independent of her previous throws.

In a competition a player has three darts to throw on each turn. A point is scored
if a player throws all three darts to land within a central area around O. When
Arianne throws a dart the probability that it lands within this area is 0. 8143.

In the competition Arianne has ten turns, each with three darts.

(a) a dart lands less than 13 cm from O. [2]

(b) a dart lands more than 15 cm from O. [1]

(c) Find the probability that Arianne throws two consecutive darts
that land more than 15 cm from O. [2]

(d) Find the probability that Arianne does not score a point on a
turn of three darts. [2]

(e) Find the probability that Arianne scores at least 5 points in the
competition. [3]

(f ) Find the probability that Arianne scores at least 5 points and

less than 8 points. [2]

(g) Given that Arianne scores at least 5 points, find the probability
that Arianne scores less than 8 points. [2]

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