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 CHANGING
SOCIOCULTURAL DYNAMICS
AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP

Holly G. Rhodes, Rapporteur

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC
20001

This activity was supported by Contract No. 2014-14041100003-009 between the

National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in
this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency
that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47377-4

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47377-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25056
Epub ISBN: 978-0-309-47380-4

Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National
Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800)
624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

(2018). Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security:
Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25056.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by
an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private,
nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to
science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for
outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is
president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964

under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the
practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected
by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C.
D. Mote, Jr., is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of

Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health
issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished
contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of

Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent,
objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other
activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy
decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and
research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and
increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering,
and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering,

and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based
consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring
committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions,
and recommendations based on information gathered by the
committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been
subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it
represents the position of the National Academies on the statement
of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences,

Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and
discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by
the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in
proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by
other participants, the planning committee, or the National
Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National

Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwed
o.
 STEERING COMMITTEE ON CHANGING
SOCIOCULTURAL DYNAMICS AND
IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY: A WORKSHOP

JEFFREY JOHNSON (Chair), Department of Anthropology, University

of Florida
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for
Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University
MARK LIBERMAN, Department of Linguistics, University of
Pennsylvania
DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science
and Engineering, San Francisco State University
JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of
Michigan
SUSAN WELLER, Department of Preventive Medicine and Community
Health, The University of Texas Medical Branch

SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director

RENÉE WILSON GAINES, Senior Program Assistant
 COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL SURVEY
OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL
SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS TO
NATIONAL SECURITY

PAUL R. SACKETT (Chair), Department of Psychology, University of

Minnesota
GARY G. BERNTSON, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State
University
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, School of Computer Science, Institute for
Software Research International, Carnegie Mellon University
NOSHIR S. CONTRACTOR, McCormick School of Engineering and
Applied Science, School of Communications, and the Kellogg
School of Management, Northwestern University
NANCY J. COOKE, The Polytechnic School, Fulton Schools of
Engineering, Arizona State University
BARBARA ANNE DOSHER, Department of Cognitive Science,
University of California, Irvine
JEFFREY C. JOHNSON, Department of Anthropology, University of
Florida
SALLIE KELLER, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
and State University, National Capital Region
DAVID MATSUMOTO, Department of Psychology, College of Science
and Engineering, San Francisco State University
CARMEN MEDINA, MedinAnalytics, LLC
FRAN P. MOORE, CENTRA Technology, Inc.
JONATHAN D. MORENO, Perelman School of Medicine, Department
of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania
JOY ROHDE, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of
Michigan
JEFFREY W. TALIAFERRO, Department of Political Science, Tufts
University
GREGORY F. TREVERTON, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and
Sciences, School of International Relations, University of Southern
California
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Departments of
Ophthalmology and Radiology, Harvard Medical School

SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director

ALEXANDRA BEATTY, Senior Program Officer
JULIE ANNE SCHUCK, Program Officer
ELIZABETH TOWNSEND, Research Associate
RENÉE L. WILSON GAINES, Senior Program Assistant
 BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE,
AND SENSORY SCIENCES

SUSAN T. FISKE (Chair), Department of Psychology and Woodrow

Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton
University
JOHN BAUGH, Department of Arts & Sciences, Washington University
in St. Louis
LAURA L. CARSTENSEN, Department of Psychology, Stanford
University
JUDY DUBNO, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck
Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina
JENNIFER EBERHARDT, Department of Psychology, Stanford
University
ROBERT L. GOLDSTONE, Department of Psychological and Brain
Sciences, Indiana University
DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology, Michigan State
University
JAMES S. JACKSON, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
NANCY G. KANWISHER, Department of Brain and Cognitive
Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JANICE KIECOLT-GLASER, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State
University College of Medicine
BILL C. MAURER, School of Social Sciences, University of California,
Irvine
JOHN MONAHAN, School of Law, University of Virginia
STEVEN E. PETERSEN, Department of Neurology and Neurological
Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine
DANA M. SMALL, Department of Psychiatry, Yale Medical School
TIMOTHY J. STRAUMAN, Department of Psychology and
Neuroscience, Duke University
JEREMY M. WOLFE, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Departments of
Ophthalmology and Radiology, Harvard Medical School

BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Director

THELMA COX, Program Coordinator
 Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by

individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical
expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide
candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published
proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the
institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the
process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this
proceedings: Susan Brandon, Defense Intelligence Agency, and
Susan C. Weller, Department of Preventive Medicine and Community
Health and Department of Family Medicine, University of Texas
Medical Branch, Galveston.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the
content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its
release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by John
Monahan, School of Law, University of Virginia. He was responsible
for making certain that an independent examination of this
proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the
National Academies and that all review comments were carefully
considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the
rapporteur and the National Academies.

Jeffrey Johnson, Chair

Steering Committee on Changing
Sociocultural
Dynamics and Implications for National
Security
 Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
The Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for
Applications to National Security
Objectives for the Six Workshops
Introduction to the Workshop on Changing Sociocultural Dynamics
and Implications for National Security
Structure of This Proceedings

2 LINKING CULTURE, LANGUAGE, BEHAVIOR, AND DATA

Measuring Individuals: How Cultural Values Shape Public
Perceptions of Risk
Examining Shared Beliefs and Behaviors: Living up to Cultural
Ideals
Identifying Patterns: Understanding Culture through Social Media
Discussion

3 TRIANGULATION OF DATA SOURCES AND RESEARCH

METHODS
Using Multiple Sources of Data to Understand Conflict in
Organizations
Using Data from Surveys, Laboratory Experiments, and Social
Media to Understand Misinformation
Challenges in Triangulating Health Care Data
Discussion
4 THE CHALLENGE OF MULTIPLE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS
Levels of Influence
Patterns of Cultural Variation
Levels of Analysis and Linguistics
Discussion
Wrap-up

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task for the Decadal Survey of Social and

Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security
B Workshop Agenda
C Participants List
D Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members and
Presenters
 1

Introduction

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which

oversees and directs the work of the 17 agencies and organizations
responsible for foreign, military, and domestic intelligence for the
United States, has interest in research from the social and behavioral
sciences that may be beneficial to the Intelligence Community (IC).
To develop a systematic understanding of these potential benefits,
ODNI requested that the National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine conduct a decadal survey of the social
and behavioral sciences to identify research opportunities that show
promise for supporting national security efforts in the next 10 years.

THE DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS
TO NATIONAL SECURITY
A decadal survey is a method for engaging members of a research
community to identify lines of research with the greatest potential
utility in the pursuit of a particular goal. The National Academies
pioneered this type of survey with a study of ground-based
astronomy in 1964.1 Since then, committees appointed by the
National Academies have conducted more than 15 decadal surveys.
The Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for
Applications to National Security represents the first opportunity to
apply this approach to the social and behavioral sciences. Its
purpose is to develop an understanding of the lines of research in
these fields that offer the greatest potential to enhance the
capabilities of the IC. To carry out this work, the National Academies
appointed the Committee on the Decadal Survey of Social and
Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security (Decadal
Survey Committee); the committee’s charge appears in Appendix A.
The Decadal Survey Committee has pursued many avenues in
collecting information about the needs of the IC and relevant
cutting-edge research in the social and behavioral sciences. As part
of its information-gathering process, the committee held a series of
six workshops—the first three on October 11, 2017, and the second
three on January 24, 2018.2 These workshops, for which planning
began early in the committee process, were designed to explore
areas about which the committee wished to learn more and to allow
the committee to engage with a broad range of experts. The topics
selected for the workshops do not necessarily indicate the ultimate
direction of the committee’s deliberations. The six topics addressed
by the workshops were

1. changing sociocultural dynamics and implications for national

security;
2. emerging trends and methods in international security;
3. leveraging advances in social network thinking for national
security;
4. learning from the science of cognition and perception for
decision making;
5. workforce development and intelligence analysis; and
6. understanding narratives for national security purposes.
 Separate steering committees, whose membership included both
members of the Decadal Survey Committee and additional experts in
the topics to be addressed, were appointed to plan these workshops.
Each of these committees was guided by its own charge. All were
asked to bring their expertise to bear in identifying specific areas of
promising research and experts with deep knowledge who could
offer a range of insights.
This Proceedings of a Workshop, prepared by the workshop
rapporteur, summarizes the presentations and discussions at the first
workshop, on changing sociocultural dynamics and implications for
national security.3 This workshop was planned by the Steering
Committee on Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for
National Security, whose charge is presented in Box 1-1. The
workshop’s purpose was to explore the current state of the science
regarding culture, language, and behavior with respect to the
national security context. It should be noted that the steering
committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the
workshop, and that the views contained in this proceedings are
those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily
represent the views of all workshop participants, the steering
committee, or the National Academies. The agenda for the workshop
appears in Appendix B; a list of individuals who attended the three
workshops held on October 11, 2017, is presented in Appendix C;
and biographical sketches of the committee members and speakers
are provided in Appendix D.

BOX 1-1
Workshop Steering Committee Charge
An ad hoc steering committee will plan and conduct a 1-day
public workshop. The workshop will feature invited
presentations and discussions to explore the current state of
the science regarding culture, language, and behavior for
national security contexts. The committee will plan and organize
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