Morning Equity

KSI Research

Morning Equity
Published on 19 September 2025

Jakarta Composite Index Highest Lowest Net Foreign 1D YTD %

8,008.43 8,068.01 7,993.52 (0.36) Tn 13.11
-0.21% Published on 19 September 2025

Indices Country Last Chg% YTD% Market Overview

America WALL STREET HITS FRESH RECORDS, INTEL SOARS ON NVIDIA STAKE, FED CUTS RATES,
Dow Jones USA 46,142 0.27 8.46 TRUMP TIGHTENS GRIP ON FED AND CHINA TRADE TENSIONS ESCALATE
S&P 500 USA 6,632 0.48 12.76 US MARKET: Wall Street closed at record highs on Thursday’s trading (18/09/25), a day
Nasdaq USA 22,471 0.94 16.36 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps to a range of 4.00%–4.25%. Dow Jones
EIDO USA 17.72 (1.45) (4.11) rose 124 points or 0.27% to 46,142.42, S&P 500 strengthened 0.48%, and Nasdaq Composite
EMEA jumped 0.94%. Russell 2000 small-cap index also recorded its highest intraday level since
FTSE 100 UK 9,228 0.21 12.91 November at 2,466 points. Intel shares posted the biggest daily surge since October 1987,
CAC 40 France 7,855 0.87 6.42 soaring 22.7% to US$30.57 after Nvidia announced a US$5 billion investment, while
DAX Germany 23,675 1.35 18.91
Nvidia itself rose 3.5% recovering from previous pressure. The chip sector rally lifted the
Asia Pacific Semiconductor index 3.6% and pushed S&P 500 Technology sector up 1.36%. Seven out of 11
KOSPI Korea 3,461 1.40 44.25
S&P 500 sectors strengthened, with consumer staples and discretionary being the biggest
Shanghai China 3,832 (1.15) 14.32
TWSE Taiwan 25,769 1.30 11.87 laggards.
KLSE Malaysia 1,599 (0.79) (2.64)
MARKET SENTIMENT: The Fed carried out its first cut since December, calling the move a “risk
ST - Times Singapore 4,313 (0.26) 13.86
Sensex India 83,014 0.39 6.24 management” decision to anticipate a weakening labor market. The latest projections show the
Hangseng Hongkong 26,545 (1.35) 32.33 majority of policymakers expect 2 more cuts in 2025, but only one additional cut in 2026.
Nikkei Japan 45,303 1.15 13.56 Markets expect around 44.2 bps of cuts by the end of 2025, larger than the Fed’s official
projection. The latest data showed initial jobless claims fell 33,000 to 231,000 in the week
Sectors Last Chg% YTD% ending September 13, but the labor market softened as demand and supply of workers
Basic Material 1,762 0.59 40.78 declined, while layoffs remained low but hiring nearly halted.
Consumer Cyclical 870 0.70 4.20
Energy 3,246 0.77 20.71 REGULATION & POLICY: In Washington, the US Senate confirmed 48 of President
Financials 1,458 (0.84) 4.72 Trump’s nominees for diplomatic, military, and administrative posts in one 51–47
Healthcare 1,822 (0.01) 25.12 package vote, after Republicans changed Senate rules with the nuclear option to speed up the
Industrials 1,441 0.38 39.20
process. Approved candidates included positions for ambassadors to Greece, Switzerland &
Infrastructure 1,839 (0.35) 24.35
Cons. Non-Cyclical 745 (0.53) 2.15
Liechtenstein, as well as officials in the Departments of Defense, Agriculture, Housing, Interior,
Prop. & Real Estate 887 (0.66) 17.19 and Transportation. Since Trump began his second term on January 20, political divides in the
Technology 10,892 4.26 172.46 Senate have deepened, with Republicans almost always supporting Trump’s nominees while
Trans. & Logistics 1,694 1.28 30.24 Democrats oppose.
• Trump is increasingly pressuring The Fed. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran
Commodities Previous Price Chg% YTD% was the sole dissenter in the FOMC meeting, favoring a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps.
Oil (USD/bbl) 64.05 63.57 (0.75) (11.36)
His projection calls for the Fed funds rate to fall to 2.75–3% (midpoint 2.9%) by the end of
Gold (USD tr.oz) 3,660 3,644 (0.43) 38.58
2025, well below the 3.6% median. Miran signaled the desire for 5 more 25 bps cuts by
Nickel (USD/MT) 15,405 15,272 (0.86) (0.37)
Tin (USD/MT) 34,345 33,711 (1.85) 15.91 year-end. His view aligns with Trump, who wants rates below 2.5% and often calls Powell
Copper (USD/lb) 457.10 454.10 (0.66) 12.78 “too slow.” Miran’s odds as the next Fed Chair rose to 17% on prediction market Polymarket,
Coal (USD/MT) 102.90 103.35 0.44 (17.49) though Waller still leads at 30%.
CPO (MYR/MT) 4,414 4,368 (1.04) (10.02)
TRADE WAR: US House China Committee Chairman John Moolenaar urged the Trump
Currency Last Chg% YTD% administration to restrict or suspend Chinese airlines’ landing rights in the US unless
USD-IDR 16,505 (0.45) (2.44) Beijing restores full access to rare earths and magnets. He also called for a review of export
AUD-IDR 10,973 (0.07) (8.62) policies related to commercial aircraft and spare parts sales to China. Since April, China has
EUR-IDR 19,547 (0.38) (14.01) added some rare earth items to its export restriction list in response to higher US tariffs. Reports
SGD-IDR 12,913 (0.33) (8.21)
also suggest China is considering purchasing up to 500 Boeing planes as part of trade
JPY-IDR 112 0.13 (7.81)
GBP-IDR 22,500 (0.34) (9.98) negotiations. The US Department of Transportation extended US airlines’ permits for 6 months
to operate 48 weekly flights to China out of 119 approved, matching the number of Chinese
Source: Bloomberg LP
airlines’ flights to the US. US-China aviation tensions have been an issue since the COVID-19
pandemic.

FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY: US Treasury 10-year yield rose 3.2 bps to 4.108%.
• US Dollar strengthened 0.52% against Swiss Franc to 0.793 and rose 0.67% to 147.95
against Japanese Yen. Euro weakened 0.23% to US$1.1785, Pound fell 0.56% to US$1.355,
while Dollar Index rose 0.43% to 97.37.

EUROPE & ASIA MARKET: European STOXX 600 index rose 0.8%. MSCI All-Country World
Index briefly hit a record 981.65 before closing at 979.18, up 0.29%. German 10-year bond yield
rose 1.2 bps to 2.727%. German PPI (Aug) will be the focus for Europe’s largest economy today.
The Bank of England kept rates at 4% with a 7–2 vote and slowed gilt sales to £70 billion per
year from £100 billion.
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GDP Pound weakened after the decision. Norway’s Central Bank cut rates 25 bps to 4.0% and
Global Economics CB Rate CPI YoY
YoY signaled further cuts in the next 12 months though smaller than previously expected. The
United States 4.25 2.90 2.10 Norwegian Krone held near a 3-year high. In Germany, parliament approved the first annual
Euro Area 2.15 2.00 1.50 budget since fiscal reforms earlier this year, while in France, hundreds of thousands
United Kingdom 4.00 3.80 1.20
protested anti-austerity, pressuring President Macron and new PM Sebastien Lecornu to
Japan 0.50 2.70 1.70
China 4.35 -0.40 5.20
scrap planned budget cuts.
• The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% amid political
Domestic Economics Latest Chg% YTD% uncertainty, but before that Japan’s National Core CPI for August came out this morning
Jibor 5.90 0.32 51.34 in line with forecasts at 2.7% YoY (same as headline CPI), down from 3.1% previously.
GovBonds (10y) 6.28 (0.14) (10.30) • China’s youth unemployment rate (ages 16–24, excluding students) jumped to
Inflation MoM (0.08) 18.9% in August 2025, up from 17.8% in July, the highest since survey methods were
7Days RR 4.75 changed in 2023 to exclude active students. The surge highlights worsening labor market
GDP Growth YoY (%) 5.12
conditions, with many new graduates struggling to find suitable jobs, underscoring serious
Foreign Reserve (Bn) 151
challenges for China’s economic and social stability.
Government Bonds Yield% Chg% YTD% COMMODITY: Oil prices weakened. Brent fell 0.8% to US$67.44/barrel, and US WTI also
10 Year 6.28 (0.14) (10.30) dropped 0.8% to US$63.57.
15 Year 6.72 (0.44) (5.12)
• Gold prices paused after a new record, with spot gold down 0.38% to US$3,645.89/oz.
20 Year 6.83 (0.10) (4.09)
30 Year 6.86 (0.20) (3.34)
INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia recorded undisbursed loans reaching IDR 2,372.11 trillion
Source: Bloomberg LP or 22.71% of total credit ceiling as of August 2025, up from 22.35% at the end of 2024.
This condition was driven by businesses’ “wait and see” stance on economic prospects, still
MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS
high lending rates, and companies’ tendency to use internal funds for financing. Although
• The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in
annual credit growth remains positive, BI assesses that disbursement is not strong enough to
September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, in
boost economic activity, while banking liquidity remains loose with a high liquid asset to third-
line with expectations. It is the first reduction in borrowing
party funds ratio, but the main obstacle is weak credit demand.
costs since December.
JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX: After recording a new ATH level at 8,068, JCI closed in red
• Machinery Orders YoY in Japan decreased to 4.90 percent
16.75pts / -0.21% to 8,008.43, still relatively safe above the psychological level of 8,000,
in July from 7.60 percent in June of 2025. Machinery Orders
although the appearance of the candle seems to signal a Dark Cloud (in the Resistance area).
YoY in Japan averaged 0.50 percent from 2006 until 2025,
The decline was accompanied by foreign net sell worth IDR 358.32 billion (All market),
reaching an all time high of 25.50 percent in August of
amid heavy pressure on the Banking sector, especially large sell-offs in BBCA BMRI BBNI
2010 and a record low of -41.60 percent in May of 2009.
shares, amid concerns that the IDR 200T liquidity injection from the Ministry of Finance will
• Initial jobless claims in the US sank by 33,000 from the
still be difficult to be absorbed by banks’ credit targets. Rupiah exchange rate swung to an
previous week to 231,000 on the second week of
intraday High of 16,577 / USD before stabilizing around 16,493 / USD, holding below the key
September, firmly below the market consensus of 240,000.
Resistance of 16,500 which, if broken, could propel USD/IDR towards 16,850. Considering the
• The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to
current market sentiment, KIWOOM RESEARCH advises investors/traders to hold off on
+23.2 in September 2025, its highest reading since
buying positions at the end of this week while focusing on JCI psychological area of 8,000 (up
January, from -0.3 in August.
to 7,980) as the nearest Support.

Economic Calendar
Date Event Act Prev Frcst
Thursday September 18 2025
01:00 AM US Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.25% 4.5% 4.25%
01:00 AM US FOMC Economic Projections - - -
01:30 AM US Fed Press Conference - - -
06:50 AM JP Machinery Orders MoM JUL -4.6% 3% -1.3%
06:50 AM JP Machinery Orders YoY JUL 4.9% 7.6% 5.9%
03:00 PM EA Current Account JUL €35B €38.9B €32.4B
06:00 PM GB BoE Interest Rate Decision 4% 4% 4%
07:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims SEP/13 231K 264K 250.0K
07:30 PM US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index SEP 23.2 -0.3 8
09:00 PM US CB Leading Index MoM AUG -0.5% 0.1% -0.1%
Friday September 19 2025
03:00 AM US Net Long-term TIC Flows JUL $49.2B $151B -
03:30 AM US Fed Balance Sheet SEP/17 $6.61T $6.60T -
06:01 AM GB Gfk Consumer Confidence SEP -19 -17 -17
06:30 AM JP Inflation Rate YoY AUG 2.7% 3.1% 2.8%
06:30 AM JP Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 2.7% 3.1% 2.8%
06:30 AM JP Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
10:00 AM JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
01:00 PM DE PPI YoY AUG -1.5% -1.6%
01:00 PM GB Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.6% 0.5%
01:00 PM GB Retail Sales YoY AUG 1.1% 0.7%
Source: Trading Economics
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 Morning Equity
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Corporate News
PT. Bank Amar Indonesia Tbk. (AMAR) recorded strong growth with new accounts
up 49.31% YoY, savings rising 48.6% to Rp245.4 billion, and total deposits
AMAR
reaching Rp1.5 trillion by August 2025, driven by rising digital saving adoption,
AI-powered features, and attractive interest rates to boost saving culture.

PT. Bank MNC Internasional Tbk. (BABP), a subsidiary of PT. MNC Kapital
Indonesia Tbk. (BCAP), has partnered with PT. Asuransi Jiwa Central Asia Raya
BABP
(CAR Life Insurance) to launch Saving Plus Insurance, combining savings and life
protection to strengthen financial services and support business growth.

PT. Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk. (DSSA), a Sinar Mas Group big-cap, targets
Rp1.5 trillion from bonds and sukuk issuance to refinance debt and fund business
DSSA
expansion, particularly the Rp4.9 trillion SMX01 data center project in Jakarta,
aiming to strengthen growth, competitiveness, and long-term value creation.

PT. Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk. (HEXA) will distribute a cash dividend of US$21.74
million (Rp356.26 billion) or US$0.02588 (Rp424.04) per share for fiscal year 2024,
HEXA
sourced from Q1 2025 net profit, with payment set for October 17, 2025,
following approval at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders.

PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk. (PGEO) is expanding beyond electricity

into off-grid opportunities like green hydrogen and green ammonia, while
PGEO
targeting 1 GW capacity within 2–3 years and 1.7 GW by 2034, supported by
projects such as PLTP Lumut Balai Unit 2 and Ulubelu’s green hydrogen pilot.

PT. Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (TLKM), in collaboration with Telkom

University, launched the Indoor Air Quality Monitoring System (IAQMS) to tackle
TLKM
Jakarta’s severe air pollution, aiming to protect employee health, improve energy
efficiency, and support SDGs through its green workplace initiative.
Sentiment:
Positive – Neutral – Negative

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 Morning Equity
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Forecast – Fundamental Analysis

Last Chg.
PBV (x) PE (x) P/EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) Fair Value
Price Ytd (%)
BASIC INDUSTRY
AMMN 8,075 (4.7) 7.1 1,130.2 56.1 0.1 0.3 0.83 7,567
ANTM 3,420 124.3 2.5 12.1 8.4 15.5 22.0 0.00 3,694
BRPT 2,900 215.2 7.3 29.2 37.9 4.5 28.4 1.11 2,290
ESSA 635 (21.6) 1.6 16.7 5.7 6.0 9.7 0.17 900
INCO 3,990 10.2 0.9 52.3 13.1 1.5 1.7 0.00 4,438
INKP 7,450 9.6 0.4 8.0 3.1 2.7 4.8 0.72 10,390
MBMA 470 2.6 2.0 192.9 17.7 0.5 1.0 0.29 549
MDKA 2,370 46.7 3.8 - 9.3 (0.9) (4.7) 0.59 2,768
SMGR 2,890 (12.2) 0.5 76.2 4.0 0.3 0.6 0.18 2,860
Avg. 2.9 189.7 17.3 3.4 7.1 0.43

CONSUMER CYCLICAL
ACES 436 (44.8) 1.2 9.1 4.7 9.8 13.5 0.14 597
MAPA 550 (48.6) 2.1 11.0 4.4 11.2 20.8 0.37 924
MAPI 1,220 (13.5) 1.6 11.1 3.1 6.1 15.6 0.54 1,588
Avg. 1.6 10.4 4.0 9.0 16.6 0.35

ENERGY
AADI 6,975 (17.7) 1.0 - - - - 0.44 11,385
ADMR 1,015 (15.4) 1.7 7.6 5.8 16.2 24.7 0.20 1,326
ADRO 1,640 (32.5) 0.6 - 22.0 9.3 13.3 0.11 2,283
AKRA 1,240 10.7 2.1 10.2 7.3 8.0 20.8 0.36 1,555
ITMG 22,675 (15.1) 0.8 4.6 3.0 14.8 18.5 0.04 23,616
MEDC 1,285 16.8 0.9 9.5 1.6 2.6 10.1 1.52 1,673
PGAS 1,765 11.0 1.0 8.4 3.0 4.7 11.2 0.35 1,786
PTBA 2,360 (14.2) 1.4 7.0 4.5 9.6 20.0 0.10 2,309
Avg. 1.2 7.9 6.7 9.3 16.9 0.39
[]]/
INFRASTRUCTURE
EXCL 2,810 24.9 1.4 - 2.3 (0.4) (1.4) 1.76 2,906
ISAT 1,830 (26.2) 1.8 13.1 2.3 3.9 14.0 1.50 2,604
JSMR 3,540 (18.2) 0.7 6.3 2.1 2.9 12.5 1.04 5,243
PGEO 1,325 41.7 1.7 24.6 10.8 4.5 6.8 0.37 1,630
TLKM 3,250 19.9 2.4 14.1 4.4 7.9 17.4 0.47 3,442
TOWR 590 (9.9) 1.5 8.7 3.0 4.5 18.3 2.73 817
Avg. 1.6 13.4 4.1 3.9 11.3 1.31
Source: Bloomberg LP

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 Morning Equity
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Forecast – Fundamental Analysis

Last Chg.
PBV (x) PE (x) P/EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) Fair Value
Price Ytd (%)
INDUSTRIAL
ASII 5,575 13.8 1.0 6.7 4.0 7.1 16.2 0.37 5,788
UNTR 26,400 (1.4) 1.0 5.3 2.6 10.6 19.9 0.21 28,368
Avg. 1.0 6.0 3.3 8.8 18.0 0.29

HEALTHCARE
KLBF 1,160 (14.7) 2.4 15.6 10.4 11.7 15.4 0.02 1,724
SIDO 540 (8.5) 4.8 13.9 10.4 31.1 34.2 0.00 597
Avg. 3.6 14.7 10.4 21.4 24.8 0.01

PROP. & REAL ESTATE

BSDE 1,060 12.2 0.5 6.7 5.3 4.6 8.1 0.31 1,189
CTRA 960 (2.0) 0.8 7.6 4.8 5.0 10.8 0.32 1,401
PWON 390 (2.0) 0.9 7.9 5.9 6.8 11.6 0.26 540
SMRA 444 (9.4) 0.6 6.5 2.6 3.3 10.3 0.76 587
Avg. 0.7 7.2 4.6 4.9 10.2 0.41

TECHNOLOGY
GOTO 56 (20.0) 1.8 - - (6.8) (8.9) 0.16 47
Avg. 1.8 - - (6.8) (8.9) 0.16

CONS. NON-CYCLICAL
AMRT 2,040 (28.4) 5.0 26.2 9.8 8.7 20.4 0.11 2,852
CPIN 4,940 3.8 2.7 21.0 10.9 9.0 13.1 0.28 5,905
HMSP 625 (1.6) 3.0 13.5 7.9 11.4 22.2 0.01 656
ICBP 9,425 (17.1) 2.3 12.1 6.3 7.1 20.3 0.68 13,010
INDF 7,650 (0.6) 1.0 6.3 2.5 5.2 16.5 0.65 9,941
JPFA 2,100 8.2 1.5 8.8 4.2 7.7 18.2 0.65 2,299
SCMA 338 102.4 3.2 36.5 22.4 5.6 8.3 0.00 309
UNVR 1,710 (9.3) 25.4 21.5 13.2 16.0 112.7 0.92 1,743
Avg. 5.5 18.2 9.6 8.8 29.0 0.41

Last Chg.
PBV (x) PE (x) LDR (%) NPL NIM (%) DER (x) Fair Value
Price Ytd (%)
FINANCIAL
ARTO 2,210 3.5 3.5 148.9 94.1 0.2 7.2 0.05 2,576
BBCA 7,700 3.6 3.6 16.7 82.0 1.8 6.3 0.03 10,795
BBNI 4,340 1.0 1.0 7.8 98.0 2.0 3.7 0.65 5,019
BBRI 4,250 2.0 2.0 11.3 102.1 2.8 7.8 0.62 4,603
BBTN 1,325 0.5 0.5 5.8 93.8 3.2 3.6 1.50 1,335
BMRI 4,420 1.6 1.6 7.3 100.0 1.1 4.3 0.99 5,841
BRIS 2,610 2.6 2.6 16.8 83.9 - 4.6 0.60 3,366
Avg. 2.1 30.6 93.4 1.8 5.4 0.63
Source: Bloomberg LP

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 Morning Equity
Published on 19 September 2025

Jakarta Composite Index (SEAG)

Sector Rotation (Daily) (RRG)

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 Morning Equity
Published on 19 September 2025

RUPS
Date Time Company Event Place
19-Sep-25 10:00 KAQI RUPSLB Park 5 Simatupang, Jl. Intan RSPP Utara No. C-5, Cilandak Barat
10:00 LABS RUPSLB Gedung Etana Lt. 1, Jl. Rawa Gelam V No. 13 Blok L Kav.11
14:00 NETV RUPSLB MD Place, Jl. Setiabudi Selatan No. 7
14:30 PJAA RUPSLB Candi Bentar, Putri Duyung Ancol, Taman Impian Jaya Ancol

DIVIDEND
Ammount
TICKER Status Cum-Date Ex-Date Recording Date Pay-Date Dividend Yield
(IDR)/Share
HEXA Cash Dividend 24-Sep-25 25-Sep-25 26-Sep-25 17-Oct-25 424.04 7.89%

IPO
TICKER Price Offering Allot. Date List. Date Warrant

EMAS Rp 2,880 17 – 19 Sep 2025 19 Sep 2025 23 Sep 2025 -

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 Morning Equity
Published on 19 September 2025

Kiwoom Research Team

Liza Camelia Suryanata

Head of Equity Research
[email protected]

Sukarno Alatas Abdul Azis Setyo W.

Senior Equity Research Analyst Equity Research Analyst
[email protected] [email protected]

Miftahul Khaer Wahyu Saputra

Equity Research Analyst Equity Research Associate
[email protected] [email protected]

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