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Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page iii

The Prepared
Mind of a Leader
Eight Skills Leaders Use to
Innovate, Make Decisions,
and Solve Problems

Bill Welter
Jean Egmon
Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page ii
Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page i

Praise for The Prepared Mind of a Leader

“If you want to make a difference, read this book. Welter and
Egmon show us more than a glimpse of the landscape beyond
the boundaries of our habits, and a dynamic framework for
navigating it. The eight skills are indispensable for anyone
who aspires to be a leader.”
—Dale Burton, senior vice president, Devon Bank

“This is a practical guide for people in leadership positions

or just interested in stepping out of their ordinary roles and
boundaries. The authors give you insight into the mindset
and associated skills of a successful, forward-thinking leader.”
—Rommin Adl, president and Chief Executive Officer,
Strategic Management Group, Inc., A BTS Company

“Welter and Egmon do a great job of telling leaders how to

prepare their minds for an uncertain future in clear, actionable
steps. Anyone who wants to know how to ‘see around the corner’
needs to read this book.”
—Kaveh Safavi, chief medical officer, Solucient LLC

“The authors say that everyone, regardless of level in the organi-

zation, must have the skills of a Prepared Mind of a Leader—how
true! Leadership is not just for people at the top.”
—Susan L. Henricks, president, RR Donnelley
Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page ii
Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page iii

The Prepared
Mind of a Leader
Eight Skills Leaders Use to
Innovate, Make Decisions,
and Solve Problems

Bill Welter
Jean Egmon
Welter.ffirs 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page iv

Copyright © 2006 by Bill Welter and Jean Egmon.

Published by Jossey-Bass
A Wiley Imprint
989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741 www.josseybass.com

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form
or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as
permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior
written permission of the publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy
fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400,
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should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street,
Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, or online at
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts
in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or
completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of
merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Welter, Bill.
The prepared mind of a leader : eight skills leaders use to innovate, make decisions, and solve
problems / by Bill Welter, Jean Egmon.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-7879-7680-4 (alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-7879-7680-6 (alk. paper)
1. Leadership. 2. Decision making. I. Egmon, Jean. II. Title.
HD57.7.W4543 2006
658.4'092—dc22
2005019337

Printed in the United States of America

first edition
HB Printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Welter.ftoc 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page v

Contents
Introduction: Chance Favors the Prepared Mind 1

PA RT O N E : O U R F O U N DAT I O N AND FRAMEWORKS

1 The Only Foundation We Have 11
2 Frameworks for Intentional Preparation 25

PA RT T WO : T H E S K I L L S OF P R E PA R E D M I N D L E A D E R S H I P
3 Observing: Seeing Beyond the Obvious 43
4 Reasoning: Moving from the Known to
the Undetermined 68
5 Imagining: Envisioning the Future Before It Arrives 95
6 Challenging: Pushing for Higher and
Deeper Thinking 120
7 Deciding: Choosing with Consequences in Mind 148
8 Learning: Keeping a Developmental Mind-Set 173
9 Enabling: Exercising Leadership from the
Outside In 198
10 Reflecting: Looking Backward, Forward,
and Inward 226
11 Conclusion: Preparing for Tomorrow 252

Notes 273
Acknowledgments 283
About the Authors 285
Index 287

v
Welter.ftoc 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page vi

Bill dedicates this book to Marg.

Thanks for your patience and love.

Jean dedicates this book to G and Norma Egmon, who,

without even realizing it, taught me why and how to
cultivate and use a Prepared Mind in all areas of life.
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 1

Introduction

Chance Favors
the Prepared Mind

“Chance favors the prepared mind” was the statement Louis

Pasteur, the nineteenth-century scientist, used to describe his re-
markable ability to invent and innovate across a complex set of
problems. When you look at Pasteur’s accomplishments—from his
studies of crystallization and fermentation that aided industries
ranging from dairying to silk making, to his work with germs and
microorganisms, which opened up whole new fields of scientific
inquiry—you can see that he was truly ready for chance to “hap-
pen” to him.1
Pasteur’s observation on the significance of a prepared mind
was in the back of our minds as we looked at organizational suc-
cesses and failures across a variety of industries, economic condi-
tions, and business environments and observed the behaviors of
the leaders of these organizations. We saw consistencies, and we
wondered what the basis for these consistencies was and how they
developed. What was going on beneath the surface of leader be-
haviors? What were leaders thinking or, in some cases, not think-
ing, as they made their decisions?
We believe “the prepared mind” is the hallmark of twenty-first-
century leaders who are remarkable in their ability to sense, make
sense (the development of an understanding of what they are sens-
ing), decide, and act across a complex set of conditions. We also
believe that the prepared mind is not a matter of chance. It is a
matter of intentional preparation, and that is the purpose of this
book: to help you build the skills of Prepared Mind leadership.

1
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Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 2

2 THE PREPARED MIND OF A LEADER

Prepared Mind Leadership

In our working definition of Prepared Mind leadership, we see
leadership as the practice of continuously envisioning opportuni-
ties for growth within complex, dynamic environments, built on
core principles the organization is committed to sustaining and
using as the basis for value delivered to all of its stakeholders.2 Im-
plied in our definition is that leaders, no matter where they are in
the organization, are strategists in terms of making opportunities
explicit and knowing why and when and how to move into and nav-
igate the problems and opportunities they face.
You can be an individual contributor or a box on the organi-
zational chart yet act as a leader in your organization—or fail to do
so. Prepared Mind leadership is not limited by formal roles. In fact,
the more we looked at acts of leadership, the more we realized the
power, the responsibility, and the risk of “acting outside the nar-
row confines of your job description.”3 Furthermore, in this era of
continuously shifting boundaries and relationships, and shorter
job and strategy shelf lives, successful people learn to do just that,
for their own good and for the good of their organizations. It’s an
organizational requirement that you perform your job, and per-
form it well. But leadership is a voluntary act.
Whether you hold a position of leadership in the traditional
sense or decide that you are someone who will choose to step out-
side the strict confines of your job description, the intent of this
book is to help you develop the skills of a Prepared Mind leader.

The Skills of a Prepared Mind

Good leadership, like so many other things in life, is seen through
a combination of skills. And like so many other things in life, you
don’t just “get better” at leadership; you improve your skills by reg-
ular practice. To use a sports metaphor, a good golfer has driving
skills, putting skills, “rough” skills, bunker skills, and others. He or
she is good only because of practice. And as we looked at organi-
zational successes and failures in their innovation, decision mak-
ing, and problem solving, we looked for mental skills that were
being used or were absent.
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 3

INTRODUCTION 3

We see eight fundamental skills delineating a Prepared Mind

leader.

Observing
The environment in which we live and operate is constantly chang-
ing. It’s natural for us to look for confirming information about
our view of the world, but it’s often more important to look for dis-
confirming information. What have you been observing lately?

Reasoning
People will want to know why you are proposing a course of action
and will not follow your lead until they understand your explana-
tion. What are your answers to the “Why?” question?

Imagining
The future is unknowable, but it can be visualized. Established in-
dustries, companies, policies, and practices are always challenged
by new (imagined) ideas. What’s running through your mind these
days?

Challenging
Any organization’s business is built on assumptions. When is the
last time you challenged your assumptions and tested their validity?

Deciding
Face it, you get paid to make or influence decisions because action
is essential to progress. Are you progressing or paralyzed?

Learning
Past knowledge got you to where you are today. It may or may not
be effective in continuing to move you forward. What don’t you
know that you should?
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 4

4 THE PREPARED MIND OF A LEADER

Enabling
You may be smart, but progress requires a concerted effort for any
organization. Do the people around you have the knowledge and
the means and, most important, the opportunity to progress?

Reflecting
All decisions have trade-offs. We need to look at past decisions and
understand the trade-offs we made and the consequences of those
trade-offs. We also need to reflect forward (envision) and consider
the trade-offs we are about to make. The problem is that we are
time starved and never seem to have the time to just think. Have
you spent any quiet thinking time lately?

The Map and the Method

How might you learn the skills of Prepared Mind leadership and
then transfer this ability to work and other areas of your life as
well? The map of how we approach the question is straightforward.
Part One sets the stage and explores several essential constructs
for understanding what we mean by the Prepared Mind and how
Prepared Mind leadership functions in a wide range of settings,
from global behemoths to small-scale entrepreneurships.
Chapter One paints a broad-brush picture of the evolving fu-
ture that requires us to be more prepared than ever before. In that
context, we explore the particular meaning of Prepared Mind lead-
ership and, with trigger questions peppered throughout, invite you
to explore how these ideas apply to you and your organization’s
unique circumstances.
Chapter Two explains some of the fundamental constructs on
which we built our model of Prepared Mind skills and our recom-
mendations on how to develop them further and apply them in
everyday life. The Sense-Response Cycle, the notion of opportu-
nity space, the concept of mental maps and models, and the way
we used what we call anchoring concepts to define and describe Pre-
pared Mind leadership in action are the topics we explore here.
We close this chapter with an overview of the eight skills of Pre-
pared Mind leadership in the form of a quick self-evaluation.
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 5

INTRODUCTION 5

The call to action in Part One is to take what you already know
and recombine it with new knowledge in new ways. Part Two explores
each of these critical abilities in depth: observing, reasoning, imag-
ining, challenging, deciding, learning, enabling, and reflecting.
For each of the eight skills, we take a similar approach:

• Describe the skill and relate it to its anchoring concepts. We

don’t provide every key concept that underlies every skill, but we
give you at least three key concepts for each skill. You can then
choose to dig more deeply into how to develop and apply it.
• Provide several types of examples of the skill in action—
sometimes hypothetical, sometimes from the business literature,
sometimes from our own professional practice. We believe that by
understanding the fundamentals of the skills, you will come to un-
derstand and use the power of Prepared Mind skills more effec-
tively in everyday life, across a wide variety of situations.
• Offer a series of anchored exercises in every chapter that
connects recommended skill-building activities and techniques to
some of the concepts involved in deep understanding of the sub-
ject skill.
• Sprinkle trigger questions, additional skill-building tips and
techniques, and thought-provoking scenarios and mini-cases that
you can apply or translate to your own situation. For example, you
could ask yourself, “What fundamentals of imagination was Howard
Schultz using when he decided to buy Starbucks from the original
owners?”
• Include a running example to spark your thinking about
how the skills of a Prepared Mind might apply to the problem in
your own situation. Titled “Everybody’s Problem,” we set up the
scenario in Chapter Three and illustrate in some detail how the
Prepared Mind might use that skill in thinking through and solv-
ing the problem of finding, acquiring, and retaining talent. The
remaining chapters illustrate the application of the subject skill at
three layers of a hypothetical organization and invite you to use
the model from Chapter Three to explore the question for your-
self and your organization in more depth.

The final chapter in the book ties it all together, illustrating the
power of Prepared Mind leadership in meeting the challenges and
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 6

6 THE PREPARED MIND OF A LEADER

opportunities of the future. It asks, “How will you prepare for your
tomorrow?” and offers suggestions on how you can answer that
question by using the Sense-Response Cycle and the eight skills of
the Prepared Mind.
The subtext throughout Part Two is a constant invitation to
practice. The exercises we provide in each chapter can serve as
springboards for not only developing the Prepared Mind skills but
also becoming more expert in understanding and using the skills
ever more adeptly.

An Ongoing Invitation
As you consider the eight skills of the Prepared Mind, keep the
question “Prepared for what?” in the back of your mind. You know
your job and have certain depth in your area of expertise, but your
expertise may or may not be helpful in navigating your future.
Think about the work ahead of you as prepare to develop your Pre-
pared Mind skills and apply them to your future.
You need the skill of observing because:

• Our world is larger than ever before. Many managers and ex-
ecutives have a general understanding of globalization, for exam-
ple, but have not taken the time to look at how it will affect their
job, their organization, their industry three, five, or ten years down
the road. Or, to take another emerging issue, how many baby
boom managers really understand the differences between them-
selves and the growing ranks of the “millennials,” the generation
born since the early 1980s?
• We cannot defend against new threats or take advantage of
new opportunities if we don’t see them in time. What’s on the edge
of your radar screen?

You need the skill of reasoning because:

• We need to (re)evaluate the assumptions we use to build our

existing mental maps. Assumptions are wonderful mental short-
cuts, but, like high blood pressure, they are silent killers when they
are wrong.
Welter.cintro 8/27/05 11:11 AM Page 7

INTRODUCTION 7

• We need to understand other points of view to get the whole

picture. Our view is only one view.
• We need to address unintended consequences before they
surprise us.

You need the skill of imagining because:

• When we decide, we need alternatives to keep ourselves in-

tellectually honest and sharp. If you decide based on the first pos-
sible solution to a problem, you are “satisficing.” Satisficing may be
a way to save time, but it often leads to mediocre solutions.
• Moving outside of my job description shifts me away from
my comfort zone of known issues toward issues that are knowable
and complex. I may have to build a new mental map, and that
needs imagination.

You need the skill of challenging because:

• Expertise breeds conservatism, and conservatism can lead to

stagnation. Remember that there is a fine line between being in
the groove and being in a rut.
• Mental maps degrade slowly, and we need to be aware of this
before it’s too late.

You need the skill of deciding because:

• Leadership is experienced through the actions that are taken

by the leader or by others.
• Time is not on our side. We cannot win by simply following
the actions of the competition.

You need the skill of learning because:

• New and wonderful opportunities lie outside our current job

description, and we need new knowledge and skills to take advan-
tage of them.
• The larger environment in which we do business is generat-
ing new realities that have to be added to existing knowledge to
create new knowledge.
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