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Lecture Notes
in Geoinformation and Cartography

María Teresa Camacho Olmedo

Martin Paegelow
Jean-François Mas
Francisco Escobar Editors

Geomatic
Approaches for
Modeling Land
Change Scenarios
Lecture Notes in Geoinformation
and Cartography

Series editors
William Cartwright, Melbourne, Australia
Georg Gartner, Wien, Austria
Liqiu Meng, München, Germany
Michael P. Peterson, Omaha, USA
The Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography series provides a contempo-
rary view of current research and development in Geoinformation and Cartography,
including GIS and Geographic Information Science. Publications with associated
electronic media examine areas of development and current technology. Editors
from multiple continents, in association with national and international organiza-
tions and societies bring together the most comprehensive forum for Geoinformation
and Cartography.
The scope of Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography spans the range
of interdisciplinary topics in a variety of research and application fields. The type of
material published traditionally includes:
• proceedings that are peer-reviewed and published in association with a
conference;
• post-proceedings consisting of thoroughly revised final papers; and
• research monographs that may be based on individual research projects.
The Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography series also includes various
other publications, including:
• tutorials or collections of lectures for advanced courses;
• contemporary surveys that offer an objective summary of a current topic of
interest; and
• emerging areas of research directed at a broad community of practitioners.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/7418

María Teresa Camacho Olmedo
Martin Paegelow
Jean-François Mas
Francisco Escobar
Editors

Geomatic Approaches
for Modeling Land Change
Scenarios

123
Editors
María Teresa Camacho Olmedo Jean-François Mas
Departamento de Análisis Geográfico Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía
Regional y Geografía Física Ambiental
Universidad de Granada Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Granada (UNAM)
Spain Morelia, Michoacán
Mexico
Martin Paegelow
Département de Géographie, Aménagement, Francisco Escobar
Environnement Department of Geology, Geography and
Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès Environmental Sciences
Toulouse, Garonne (Haute) University of Alcalá
France Alcalá de Henares, Madrid
Spain

ISSN 1863-2246 ISSN 1863-2351 (electronic)

Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography
ISBN 978-3-319-60800-6 ISBN 978-3-319-60801-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60801-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017943122

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
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Foreword

Alexander von Humboldt, the great scientist and proto-geographer of the early
nineteenth century, wrote about the physiognomy of nature—the face that nature
presents to us in any particular region. For Humboldt, physiognomy was the
essential appearance of the landscape. It was important to him because he was
deeply attracted to the beauty of the landscape in all its variety, but even more so
because the landscape is the visible manifestation of all the complex interactions
of the natural and human processes that interested him as a scientist (von Humboldt
1975). As science became increasingly specialized and reductionist during the
nineteenth and twentieth centuries, it avoided systems that were highly integrated
and inherently complex. Thus, landscapes were left to artists and poets, and to
descriptive geographers. And it must be admitted that even von Humboldt did not
quite know how to make the physiognomy of nature a science. He imagined a
discipline that would combine the efforts of natural scientists and visual artists. This
was a vision echoed in the mid-twentieth century by the mathematician and
physicist Lewis Fry Richardson, who imagined an orchestra of mathematicians
being conducted by a maestro of integration in order to make numerical predictions
of the behaviour of complex systems like the weather. But now we have computers,
and with computers, we can begin to understand complex systems not just
descriptively or intuitively, but formally. We can do more than describe landscapes:
we can, increasingly, generate them computationally, as predictive LUCC models
do. But to develop good models of landscape—that is, models of complex spatial
systems—still requires the vision and intuition of an artist or a maestro.
The modern scientific treatment of complex spatial systems has several roots. On
the human side, the Chicago school of sociology in the middle third of the twentieth
century developed an approach known as human ecology, which was imported into
geography and combined with spatial economic models, ultimately to give rise to
the field of regional science. Parallel to these developments, transportation engi-
neers developed mathematical and computational models of travel behaviour and
traffic flows. On the natural science side, ecologists made intensive studies of local
ecosystems to produce data on species composition and species interactions, with
space usually treated only implicitly. At the same time, these systems were

v
vi Foreword

modelled mathematically, usually in a highly simplified way, using techniques such

as Lotka–Volterra equations. Until recently, these models were almost never
explicitly spatial. Other fields such as hydrology, climatology, soil science,
agronomy, and forestry also developed mathematical and computational models
of the phenomena they dealt with.
All of these fields were dealing with phenomena that are inherently spatial, yet
until recently the spatial aspect was either ignored or treated in a highly simplified
manner—for example by reducing space to a single dimension, or by representing it
as a small set of regions, as is done in much of urban and economic geography.
There were two reasons for this. The first was that, for mathematical models, the
introduction of space makes most sets of equations impossible to solve analytically;
consequently, however plausible a model might seem as a representation of a
system, it would be difficult or impossible to know what it was saying about that
system. The second reason that space tended to be neglected was that there was
very little spatial data available. If detailed data was required, laborious survey or
field work was required to get it.
Computers solved the first problem. Computational models—simulations—ob-
viate the need to solve the equations mathematically. Once the equations are
embedded in an iterative loop, we can see how the variables of interest change their
values from one time step to the next, so we can follow the evolution of the system.
Frequently, we are not even interested in the mathematical solution, as the solution
state may lie far in the future, or the system may be continually perturbed, or may
even transform itself, before the solution state is reached. The change from math-
ematical to computational modelling not only avoids the technical problem of how
to solve the equations, but also allows us to treat the system more realistically, and
more in line with our practical reasons for wanting to understand its behaviour: we
want to know what changes to expect in the coming years so that we can develop
relevant plans, policies, and strategies.
Satellites solved the second problem. Once high-resolution remote sensing data
became available, the problem was no longer how to get spatial data, but rather
what to do with it all. Of course this data covers only a very limited set of phe-
nomena, with land use/land cover being the most important one from our point of
view, but it is nevertheless extremely useful for geographers, planners, agronomists,
foresters, and others. This is especially so because scientists are great opportunists.
If new types of data become available, we will find a use for it. So now the
computational models can tell us not only what is happening every year, but also
what is happening every year everywhere in the area we are modelling.
Computers and satellites, and more recently all sorts of geo-referenced data,
have made possible the kind of work presented in this volume. But in doing so they
have led us into a realm where the phenomena to be studied do not quite conform to
the assumptions that are the basis of traditional scientific methodology. As a con-
sequence, we are left to find our way in a new scientific country. At first, this land
seems familiar, but then we realize that it is largely unknown. We are in the land
of the poet Antonio Machado, the land where,
Foreword vii

Traveller, there is no path to follow.

The path is made by walking.

Nevertheless, a rough map of the country is emerging. It is a land of three types of

systems. The first are those that are simply complex self-organizing systems. These
are physical and chemical systems that are driven far from their (thermodynamic)
equilibrium state by a constant inflow of energy. The atmosphere provides a good
example, with its highly organized but complex structure characterized by such
features as cyclones and jet streams. These types of systems are the best understood,
due to the work of Prigogine and his group (e.g. Prigogine and Stengers 1984), as
well as scientists associated with the Santa Fe Institute such as Stuart Kauffman (e.g
Kauffman 1993) and Christopher Langton (e.g. Langton 1992). Next are the living
systems—what the mathematical biologist Rosen has called anticipatory systems
(Rosen 1999). Whereas in non-living systems entities are simply themselves
(atoms, molecules, rocks) and interact according to the laws of physics and
chemistry, living systems all include models of themselves and their environment,
and act, in part, on the basis of those models. The models can be anything from a
DNA molecule to a LUCC model. These are information-based systems, although
they are necessarily also complex self-organizing systems—the information is
operationalised by means of the complex dynamics. Finally, the third class consists
of complicated systems. These are systems that are integrated aggregates of sys-
tems, and have only recently been explicitly recognized as a discrete class of
systems with their own issues. Most of the systems dealt with in this book, like
most geographical systems, are complicated systems, composed of a variety of
natural and human systems; i.e. they are functional complexes of self-organizing
and anticipatory systems.
It is relatively straightforward to build and run models of these systems and that
tends to obscure the fact that in terms of scientific methodology we are in unknown
territory. For the most part, therefore, for lack of better alternatives, we continue to
use methods that are not entirely adequate or appropriate. At the same time, we
develop and experiment with new approaches, looking for better results. We are
making our path by walking. While the research presented in this book is interesting
and important on its own terms, placing it in this wider scientific and methodological
context shows that it also raises deeper questions that are otherwise only implicit.
Complexity
The kinds of systems being modelled in this book are all complex,
far-from-thermodynamic-equilibrium systems. Geosystems, both natural (e.g.
atmospheric, hydrological, ecological) and human, exist by virtue of the continual
inputs of energy that keep them far from their equilibrium state. (For a more
complete discussion of the complex systems approach, see White et al. 2015.)
These systems pose difficulties for orthodox science. As Prigogine showed
(Prigogine and Stengers 1984), the dynamics of far-from-equilibrium systems are
characterized by bifurcations—that is, the systems have multiple possible futures.
In other words, even when the underlying process is deterministic (which often it is
viii Foreword

not) and characterized by stationarity, the outcome of the process is not completely
determined: there may be a number of quite different possible outcomes. If this is
the nature of the system to be modelled, then any good model of it must also be able
to generate bifurcations. In other words, for a given set of initial conditions and
parameter values, the model must be able to generate multiple outcomes.
This clearly raises a number of methodological problems when it comes to cali-
bration and validation, since these essential modelling steps rely on comparing a
model outcome—a prediction—with an actual data set. The problem is that while the
model will be able to predict multiple outcomes for a particular time, we can only have
one reality for that time, because the other possible ones did not happen. If we calibrate
to get the best match to the observed data set, then as by Brown et al. (2005) showed,
we will almost certainly eliminate the ability of the model to generate the bifurcations
that represent possible alternatives to the observed data. In other words, the apparently
optimal calibration will mean that the model fundamentally misrepresents the nature
of the process. Because of the bifurcation phenomenon and the open futures nature of
reality, the risk of over-calibration is inherent in modelling complex systems. It can
never be eliminated, but it can be reduced by using more than one measure during
calibration and validation—for example kappa as well as several landscape metrics. It
is especially useful to use measures that are known to have high stationarity, such as
some fractal dimensions; if an over-calibrated model is run for a long period, it is likely
that it will lose its fractal nature.
Another trade-off in calibration that has no clear solution is that between expert
judgment (e.g. of what are reasonable parameter values or realistic land-use pat-
terns) and quantitative, automatic approaches. Partly this is a practical matter: using
statistical techniques to extract parameter values from data, or automatic approaches
(e.g. genetic algorithms) to optimize values is usually faster and easier, a point
emphasized by Clarke in Chap. 8. But it also has the advantage of being objective,
so if the same techniques are used in multiple applications of a model, the results
are comparable. The OSDD technique proposed by Páez and Escobar in Chap. 18
should prove valuable in this respect. Multiple comparable validated applications
constitute a sort of meta-validation which strengthens confidence that the model is
capturing a general process, and thus can be relied on when used to perform what-if
experiments for planning and policy purposes. Multiple applications also help
overcome the problem of multiple possible outcomes of which only one can be
observed: if the multiple applications are analogous, in effect several of the possible
outcomes may be observed. These methodological problems in calibration and
validation are examples of the problems which arise when dealing with complex
systems. We are at the beginning of the evolution of new scientific methodologies.
In general, unlike the situation in traditional science, in the science of complex
systems there are no certainties. The implication for model design is clear: a good
model should be both dynamic and spatial, so that it can generate bifurcations.
Since bifurcations appear in time, they can only occur in dynamic models. It is
possible for them to occur in a-spatial models, but they appear much more naturally
and frequently in spatial models. Since all the models presented in this volume are
spatial—indeed most of them are cellular automata based, and thus inherently both
Foreword ix

dynamic and spatial—they almost certainly have the potential for generating
bifurcations, even if this is not discussed explicitly. In principle, there must be some
element of stochasticity in order for the bifurcations to become manifest (Prigogine
speaks of the emergence of order through fluctuations). This can be introduced
explicitly by means of a random term, as in several of the models used in this book
(e.g. Metronamica, APoLUS, and SLEUTH) or implicitly by means of running the
model multiple times with slight variations in the parameter values or initial con-
ditions (e.g. the initial land-use map); this can be done with any of the models.
The fact that a single model predicts multiple, different, futures also somewhat
alters the distinction frequently made between predictions and scenarios. For
example, in Chap. 17, Maestripieri, Paegelow, and Selleron characterize prediction
as “belonging to the world of rationality and accuracy”, while scenarios “transcribe
the uncertain nature of the studied process”. But in the case of bifurcating systems,
it is the “world of rationality and accuracy”, i.e. the predictive model, that generates
the uncertain nature of the process. The various predicted futures may be treated as
scenarios, and the model may be used to explore what parameter values might be
changed to make a particular possible future more likely, with the aim of devel-
oping policies that would have that effect. But it is actually the models with the
experimentally altered parameters that are the scenarios, rather than the initial set of
predicted possible futures.
Anticipatory Systems
Many of the processes that are important in LUCC modelling are the result of
information-driven anticipatory systems—companies seeking a profit, environ-
mental agencies trying to protect a natural area, or planners locating sites for
industrial zones. In many LUCC models—for example most Markov-based tran-
sition models—these systems are not treated explicitly, and if the underlying pro-
cesses are stationary during the relevant applications, then this is a legitimate
simplification of the model. But frequently, an adequate representation of the sit-
uation requires a model that treats the anticipatory system explicitly. This may be
something as simple as parameters representing human or institutional behaviour—
an example would be the CA transition rules with their parameters representing the
neighbourhood influence—or as elaborate as an explicit model of agent behaviour.
An excellent example of the latter is the actor interaction process, based on either
contextual interaction theory or participatory action research, included in the CA
transition mechanism of the APoLUS model, described by Hewitt in Part V.
Another example is the use of cognitive mapping by local stakeholders to derive
human and social factors underlying land-use change, together with the use of an
econometric model to determine land-use demands in the model of LUCC in a
region of Jalisco, Mexico, developed by Kolb, Gerritsen, Garduño, Lazos Chavero,
Quijas, Balvanera, Álvarez, and Solís (Chap. 12).
Complicated Systems
One of the findings of complexity theory is that highly complex outcomes, for
example fractal patterns, can be generated by simple processes. Thus, almost all
x Foreword

work in this area focuses on simple models that can produce elaborate outcomes.
Modellers in applied fields, however, especially those dealing with geographical
and ecological systems, have always known that the relevant processes are not
simple. They are complicated. In particular, these systems are always composed of
a number of closely connected but often quite different subsystems, and many
of these subsystems (which are often, individually, just complex systems) cannot be
fully understood in isolation. Thus, modellers working in areas like LUCC have
long felt the need to build integrated models, whether models that integrate a variety
of phenomena in a single framework, or models that consist of a set of submodels
linked more or less closely, either sequentially or dynamically. The Jalisco model of
Kolb et al. (Chap. 12) is again a good example, as is the LUCC model of the
Cerrado biome in Brazil by Carvalho Lima, Carvalho Ribeiro, and Soares-Filho
(Chap. 19) which links a CA land change model with an econometric model.
Linking models of various phenomena to produce a single integrated model of a
complicated phenomenon like a city or a rural region is an excellent way to achieve
effective multi-disciplinarity, because the individual models can be developed by
domain experts in the various relevant fields. For that reason, integrated modelling
is an approach that is likely to become increasingly important.
The field of complex systems theory has revealed a number of fundamental
methodological issues. At present, there is no understanding of how to handle these
issues, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that dealing with them will require
both new methods (e.g. new statistical techniques) and new standards and criteria as
to what constitutes good science. So at present, those of us working in the area of
complex, anticipatory, and complicated systems are left to deal with these problems
on our own, devising ad hoc solutions as we can. Some of these will work and
others will turn out not to, and in this way, the methodology will evolve and
become more appropriate, powerful, and useful. The work in this book is an
example of this progress. Every project mentions problems that arise and the
attempts, more or less satisfactory, to deal with them. Frequently, these problems
are manifestations of the basic nature of complex, complicated systems, and the
solutions and work-arounds that are adopted are small evolutionary steps towards a
more appropriate methodology for these systems.
While the heart of Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios
is a series of papers concerned with LUCC modelling applications, the book is
much more than the usual collection of papers only loosely connected by a common
theme. The first four chapters (Part I) collectively give an overview of general
issues in LUCC modelling—specifically, approaches in calibration, simulation,
validation, and the use of scenarios. These are valuable in orienting the reader to the
general themes that arise in all the papers of the next section, especially in that they
provide an explicit comparison of the various simulation models that are used in the
application chapters of that section. The chapter on scenarios by Escobar, van
Delden, and Hewitt is useful as it not only provides an historical overview of the
subject, but also clarifies a number of issues, both definitional and methodological,
that pervade the use of scenarios in LUCC. Since scenario use is a major theme
of the book, this discussion is particularly appropriate. Parts II and III are focused
Foreword xi

on applications. It begins with seven chapters that address modelling techniques—

for example the use of multiple training dates for Markov-based models discussed
by Paegelow (Chap. 7), the genetic algorithm-based automatic calibration technique
proposed by Clarke (Chap. 8), or the examination of the effect of scale in land-use
models by Díaz-Pacheco, van Delden, and Hewitt (Chap. 9). Following these are
seven chapters focused on case studies, although most of these also include one or
more modelling innovations, which adds to their interest. Finally, Part IV provides
concise descriptions of essential techniques underlying LUCC modeling, such as
cellular automata, multi-layer perceptrons, Markov chains, multi-criteria evaluation,
and receiver operating characteristic analysis and following those, each one of the
simulation models that appear in the book are presented shortly in Part V. The book
thus provides foundations as well as examples and innovations. This is a real
strength.
The variety of approaches and applications encompassed in this book might
suggest that it lacks focus, but that is not the case. The historian Sweeny (2015)
describes the process of uncovering historical truth as akin to painting a cubist
portrait by creating a composition from the use of multiple, partly contradictory,
and always partial sightings. The final portrait reveals the multiplicity of partial
truths to be a complex but coherent whole. The same is true when picturing the
future of geographical systems. Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change
Scenarios gives us a fine cubist portrait of this field.

Roger White
Department of Geography
Memorial University of Newfoundland
St. John’s
Canada
e-mail: [email protected]

References

Brown D, Page S, Riolo R, Zellner M, Rand W (2005) Path dependence and the validation of
agent-based spatial models of land use. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19:153–174
Kauffman S (1993) The origins of order. Oxford University Press
Langton C (1992) Life at the edge of chaos. In: Langton C, Taylor C, Farmer F, Rasmussen S
(eds) Artificial life II. Addison-Wesley, Redwood City
Prigogine I, Stengers I (1984) Order out of chaos: man’s new dialogue with nature. Bantam Books,
New York
Rosen R (1999) Essays on life itself. Columbia University Press, New York
Sweeny R (2015) Why did we choose to industrialize? McGill-Queens University Press, Montreal
& Kingston
Von Humboldt A (1975) Views of nature. Arno Press, New York (Reprint and translation of the
German original first published in 1850)
White R, Engelen G, Uljee I (2015) Modeling cities and regions as complex systems: from theory
to planning applications. MIT Press, Cambridge
Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the BIA2013-43462-P project funded by the Spanish
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and by the FEDER European Regional
Fund.
The editors would like to show their appreciation to all of the contributing
authors and reviewers. The strength of this book lies in the international coopera-
tion, which has created a rich diversity of modelling approaches.
Special thanks to Roger White who kindly accepted to write the foreword.
We are also grateful to Alexis Vizcaino, Springer editor, and W. Cartwright, G.
Gartner, L. Meng, and M.P. Peterson, Springer series editors, for their interest in
our proposition.
Our special thanks to Nigel Walkington for his in-depth English revision and to
Enrique Fernández Seguí for his thorough work formatting the text.
Finally, the editors would like to acknowledge the support provided by their
respective research centres: Departamento de Análisis Geográfico Regional y
Geografía Física, Universidad de Granada, Spain; Département de Géographie,
Aménagement, Environnement, Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, France; Centro de
Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, CIGA, Universidad Nacional Autónoma
de México (UNAM), Mexico; and Departamento de Geología, Geografía y Medio
Ambiente, Universidad de Alcalá, Spain.

xiii
Contents

1 Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios.

An Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
M.T. Camacho Olmedo, M. Paegelow, J.F. Mas and F. Escobar

Part I Concepts and Tools

2 LUCC Modeling Approaches to Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
J.F. Mas, M. Paegelow and M.T. Camacho Olmedo
3 The Simulation Stage in LUCC Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
M.T. Camacho Olmedo, J.F. Mas and M. Paegelow
4 Techniques for the Validation of LUCC Modeling Outputs . . . . . . . 53
M. Paegelow, M.T. Camacho Olmedo and J.F. Mas
5 LUCC Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
F. Escobar, H. van Delden and R. Hewitt

Part II Methodological Developments and Case Studies:

Methodological Developments
6 Obtaining and Comparing Factors in Land Change Models
Using One or Two Time Points Based Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
M.T. Camacho Olmedo
7 Impact and Integration of Multiple Training Dates for Markov
Based Land Change Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
M. Paegelow
8 Land Use Change Modeling with SLEUTH: Improving
Calibration with a Genetic Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
K.C. Clarke

xv
xvi Contents

9 The Importance of Scale in Land Use Models: Experiments

in Data Conversion, Data Resampling, Resolution and
Neighborhood Extent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
J. Díaz-Pacheco, H. van Delden and R. Hewitt
10 The Influence of Scale in LULC Modeling. A Comparison
Between Two Different LULC Maps (SIOSE and CORINE) . . . . . . 187
D. García-Álvarez
11 Who Knows Best? The Role of Stakeholder Knowledge
in Land Use Models—An Example from Doñana, SW Spain . . . . . 215
R.J. Hewitt, V. Hernández Jiménez, L. Román Bermejo
and F. Escobar
12 Land Use and Cover Change Modeling as an Integration
Framework: A Mixed Methods Approach for the Southern Coast
of Jalisco (Western Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
M. Kolb, P.R.W. Gerritsen, G. Garduño, E. Lazos Chavero, S. Quijas,
P. Balvanera, N. Álvarez and J. Solís

Part III Methodological Developments and Case Studies:

Case Studies
13 Urban Land Use Change Analysis and Modeling:
A Case Study of the Gaza Strip . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
B. Abuelaish
14 Constraint Cellular Automata for Urban Development
Simulation: An Application to the Strasbourg-Kehl
Cross-Border Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
J.P. Antoni, V. Judge, G. Vuidel and O. Klein
15 Modeling Land-Use Scenarios in Protected Areas of an Urban
Region in Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
M. Gallardo and J. Martínez-Vega
16 Navigating the Future: Land Redevelopment Scenarios
and Broader Impact Assessment in Southern California . . . . . . . . . 329
J.H. Kim, J.R. Hipp and V. Basolo
17 Modeling the Future Evolution of Chilean Forests to Guide
Current Practices. Native Forest and Industrial Timber
Plantations in Southern Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
N. Maestripieri, M. Paegelow and G. Selleron
18 Urban Transportation Scenarios in a LUCC Model: A Case
Study in Bogota, Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
D. Páez and F. Escobar
Contents xvii

19 Integrating Econometric and Spatially Explicit Dynamic Models

to Simulate Land Use Transitions in the Cerrado Biome . . . . . . . . . 399
T. Carvalho Lima, S. Carvalho Ribeiro and B. Soares-Filho

Part IV Technical Notes

20 Cellular Automaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
J.F. Mas and H. Rodrigues
21 Cellular Automata in CA_MARKOV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
M.T. Camacho Olmedo and J.F. Mas
22 Fuzzy Coincidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
J.F. Mas
23 LUCC Based Validation Indices: Figure of Merit, Producer’s
Accuracy and User’s Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
M. Paegelow
24 LUCC Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
M. Paegelow
25 Markov Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
M.T. Camacho Olmedo and J.F. Mas
26 Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
M. Paegelow
27 Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
H. Taud and J.F. Mas
28 Multi-objective Land Allocation (MOLA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
M.T. Camacho Olmedo
29 The NASZ Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
F. Escobar
30 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465
J.F. Mas
31 Weights of Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
J.F. Mas

Part V Short Presentations About the Modeling Software Packages

32 A Short Presentation of the Actor, Policy, and Land Use
Simulator (APoLUS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
R.J. Hewitt
33 A Short Presentation of CA_MARKOV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
J.R. Eastman and J. Toledano
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