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Edited by
Vicki L. Birchfield and Alasdair R. Young

TRIANGULAR DIPLOMACY AMONG THE


UNITED STATES, THE EUROPEAN UNION,
AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
RESPONSES TO THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE
Triangular Diplomacy among the United States,
the European Union, and the Russian Federation
Vicki L. Birchfield
Alasdair R. Young
Editors

Triangular Diplomacy
among the United
States, the European
Union, and the
Russian Federation
Responses to the Crisis in Ukraine
Editors
Vicki L. Birchfield Alasdair R. Young
Sam Nunn School of International Sam Nunn School of International
Affairs Affairs
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA, USA Atlanta, GA, USA

ISBN 978-3-319-63434-0    ISBN 978-3-319-63435-7 (eBook)


DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-63435-7

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017952173

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018


This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub-
lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the
material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The
publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu-
tional affiliations.

Cover illustration: Denys Rudyi / Alamy Stock Photo

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature


The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Acknowledgments

This volume grew out of a Jean Monnet workshop organized by the


Center for European and Transatlantic Studies at the Georgia Institute of
Technology on May 1–2, 2015. The workshop was supported under the
European Union’s Erasmus+ Program (Jean Monnet Center of Excellence
2014–1842). The contributions to this volume reflect the views only of
the authors, and the European Commission cannot be held responsible
for any use which may be made of the information contained herein.
Some of the participants in that workshop did not end up contributing
to the volume—Dina Khapaeva, Nikolay Kopsov, Jeff Mankoff, and
Richard Whitman—but their insights and comments contributed greatly
to the volume. We are grateful to Aarij Abbas, Simeon Bruce, Joshua
Jacobs, Zoe Larrier, Allison Stanford, and Daniel Yoon for their research
and editorial assistance. We would also like to thank Marilu Suarez for
providing excellent logistical support for the workshop and the Sam Nunn
School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech for funding some of our
research assistants. We are grateful to Scott Brown, Richard Whitman, the
Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics series editors, and an anony-
mous reviewer for their comments on the manuscript. We also owe a debt
of gratitude to Palgrave’s Politics editorial team—Ambra Finotello and
Imogen Gordon Clark—for their support and encouragement. All short-
comings remain our own.

Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Vicki L. Birchfield


Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA Alasdair R. Young

v
Contents

1 Introducing Triangular Diplomacy  1


Alasdair R. Young and Vicki L. Birchfield

2 Empirical Scene Setting: The Contours


of the Crisis and Response 21
Alasdair R. Young and Vicki L. Birchfield

3 Outsourced Diplomacy: The Obama


Administration and the Ukraine Crisis 55
Deborah Welch Larson

4 ‘Crowdfunded Diplomacy’? The EU’s


Role in the Triangular Diplomacy Over
the Ukraine Crisis 77
Hiski Haukkala

5 Democracy and Progressive Modernity


in Constructions of Community: Europe,
the United States, and the Russian ‘Other’ 95
Grainne Hutton, Sara Morrell, and Jarrod Hayes

vii
viii CONTENTS

6 Russia Plays the (Triangular) Sanctions Game119


Christopher Patane and Cooper Drury

7 Ukraine and Triangular Diplomacy: Kyiv’s


Legitimacy Dilemmas in the Midst of the Crisis143
Valentina Feklyunina and Valentyna Romanova

8 Whose International Law? Legal Clashes


in the Ukrainian Crisis169
Mikulas Fabry

9 Triangular Diplomacy and Europe’s Changing


Gas Network: From “Trying-­Angles” to Stable
Marriage189
Adam N. Stulberg

10 Conclusions: Comparison and Triangulation217


Vicki L. Birchfield and Alasdair R. Young

Index227
Abbreviations

BBC British Broadcasting Corporation


CE Council of Europe
CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe
CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy
DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area
ECU Eurasian Customs Union
EEAS European External Action Service
EEU Eurasian Economic Union
EPP Eastern Partnership Program
EU European Union
EUAM European Union Advisory Mission for Civilian Security
Sector Reform Ukraine
G7 Group of Seven
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IMF International Monetary Fund
KIIS Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
MH17 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NFIUs NATO Force Integration Units
NRF NATO Response Force

ix
x ABBREVIATIONS

OHCHR Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Human


Rights
OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
UK United Kingdom
UN SC United Nations Security Council
UN United Nations
UNGA UN General Assembly
US United States
VEB Volkseigener Betrieb
VJTF Very High Readiness Joint Task Force
WTO World Trade Organization
List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 Triangular diplomacy in the Ukraine crisis 8


Fig. 2.1 Spectrum of EU member states’ attitudes toward Russia 30
Fig. 6.1 Changes in Monthly Public Approval since the Onset
of Sanctions 133

xi
List of Tables

Table 1.1 Economic interdependence, 2013 4


Table 1.2 Comparing the transatlantic partners 6
Table 2.1 Minsk agreements summary and comparison 40
Table 2.2 EU and US restrictive measures as of the end of 2016 44
Table 2.3 Restrictions on doing business in Crimea 45

xiii
CHAPTER 1

Introducing Triangular Diplomacy

Alasdair R. Young and Vicki L. Birchfield

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the subsequent conflict


in eastern Ukraine represent both the greatest security challenge to west-
ern Europe since the end of the Cold War and a profound challenge to
international norms. Focusing on the short-term response to the annexa-
tion of Crimea and subsequent conflict, this volume explores the interac-
tions between the US, the EU and Russia. These three powers represent

This chapter is part of a wider project, which has been funded with support from
the European Commission (Jean Monnet Center of Excellence 2014-1842). It
reflects the views of only the authors, and the Commission cannot be held
responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained herein.
We are grateful to Aarij Abbas, Simeon Bruce, Joshua Jacobs, Zoe Larrier,
Allison Stanford and Daniel Yoon for their research and editorial assistance.
Earlier versions were presented to the ‘Triangular Diplomacy and the Crisis in
Ukraine: The European Union, The United States and the Russian Federation’
Jean Monnet Workshop at the Georgia Institute of Technology, 1–2 May 2015,
and to the ISA’s 57th Annual Convention, March 16–19, 2016, Atlanta,
Georgia. We are grateful to Scott Brown, Richard Whitman and the other
participants for their comments.

A.R. Young (*) • V.L. Birchfield


Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology,
Atlanta, Georgia, USA

© The Author(s) 2018 1


V.L. Birchfield, A.R. Young (eds.), Triangular Diplomacy among
the United States, the European Union, and the Russian Federation,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-63435-7_1
2 A.R. YOUNG AND V.L. BIRCHFIELD

the vertices of the triangle in ‘triangular diplomacy,’ with Ukraine as the


‘object’ in the middle.
This volume is distinctive in two particular ways. First, it is explicitly
comparative, considering how the US and the EU responded to the same
crisis, although the stakes were different for each and the nature of the
problem was not necessarily understood in the same ways (see Chap. 5). It
thus contrasts a conventional, if exceptional, great power—the US—with
a very non-traditional foreign policy actor—the EU, which is typically
depicted as distinctive in terms of capabilities, organization and motiva-
tions. This volume, therefore, sheds light on what kind of international
actor the EU is and helps to inform foreign policy analysis more broadly.
The Ukraine crisis is a particularly appropriate case as it presents an espe-
cially critical test for the EU’s foreign policy as it concerns aggression by
its neighboring great power—Russia.
The second distinctive feature of this volume is its ‘360-degree’ per-
spective.1 Rather than focusing on the perspective of a single party in a
bilateral relationship or even the contending perspectives of a bilateral
pair, this volume engages with both how the US and the EU each regard
the other in its dealings with Russia, and also how Russia and Ukraine
perceive the motivations and effectiveness of the western powers. This
360-degree perspective is enhanced by considering the interactions of the
parties in cross-cutting, thematic issues of particular relevance to the crisis
and response.
Investigating the crisis in Ukraine through the lens of ‘triangular diplo-
macy’ helps to elucidate the complexity of crisis response when the three
core actors have very different relationships with the affected party, as well
as varying perceptions of the nature of the crisis. As a heuristic device the
concept of triangular diplomacy probes the parameters and consequences
of foreign policy behavior and reactions in ways that would be missed by
analyses of only bilateral and multilateral engagements. To be clear, this
volume does not seek to provide a definitive account of an unfolding,
high-stakes story. Rather, it takes a snapshot—roughly the two-and-a-half
years after the annexation of Crimea—to shed light on foreign policy
choices of great powers at a time of crisis.
This introduction aims to set the stage analytically for the other contri-
butions. It begins by making the case for studying the EU’s foreign policy
from a comparative perspective. It then sets out the triangular diplomacy
framework. The chapter concludes by introducing the other contributions
to the volume.
INTRODUCING TRIANGULAR DIPLOMACY 3

Comparing the EU as a Foreign Policy Actor


One of our analytical ambitions for this volume is to shed light on the EU
as a foreign policy actor by comparing its policy choices and policy effec-
tiveness in response to the Ukraine crisis with those of the US. The exist-
ing literature on the EU as a foreign policy actor, in the words of Niemann
and Bretherton (2013: 263), has tended to be ‘EU-introverted (or even
Eurocentric).’ The literature tends to emphasize that the EU is a sui
generis foreign policy actor. This depiction entails an implicit comparison
of the EU with traditional foreign policy actors, most commonly the
US. This literature focuses on what kind of foreign policy actor the EU
is—a civilian power (Duchêne 1973), normative power (Manners 2002)
or market power (Damro 2012), among others (for a review see Peterson
2012). These depictions emphasize the distinctiveness of the EU’s power
resources and/or its identity.
There is another, even more voluminous, strand of the literature that
describes specific EU foreign policies. This literature tends to be particu-
larly ‘EU-introverted’ (Niemann and Bretherton 2013: 263), lacking even
implicit comparison to the policies of other actors. There are, however, a
few exceptions that explicitly compare EU policies to those of other actors,
but these primarily concern external policies in which the EU is most
‘state-like’, such as climate change (see, e.g., Kelemen and Vogel 2010),
regulatory cooperation (Drezner 2007) and promoting norms through
preferential trade agreements (Postnikov 2014). There are two notable
exceptions with respect to traditional foreign policy.2 Möcklie and Mauer
(2011) compare American and European foreign policies toward the
Middle East. Although empirically rich, this work is largely descriptive,
and the EU qua the EU is only a peripheral actor. The other exception is
Brown (2014), who contrasts the different perceptions of China’s rise in
the EU and the US in order to explain differences in their policies toward
China. To an extent, our argument is a nice complement to Brown’s; simi-
lar perceptions of threat lead to similar responses. Comparison, thus, helps
to illuminate the EU’s foreign policy choices and begins to contextualize
how distinctive a foreign policy actor the EU is.
Comparison is particularly useful in assessing foreign policy effective-
ness (Niemann and Bretherton 2013: 268). The literature on EU foreign
policy effectiveness, whether reflexively or not, echoes Laatikainen and
Smith’s (2006: 16–19) distinction between internal and external effective-
ness. One strand of the literature, reflecting the limited centralization of
4 A.R. YOUNG AND V.L. BIRCHFIELD

foreign policy authority in the EU, focuses on the EU’s ability to agree
and sustain common positions, what Laatikainen and Smith called internal
effectiveness and which is frequently referred to as ‘coherence’ (Niemann
and Bretherton 2013: 267). As Hiski Haukkala argues in Chap. 4, the
EU’s coherence in response to Russia’s aggression was unexpectedly high.
Given EU coherence/internal effectiveness, the next question is
whether the EU is also externally effective. Much of the EU foreign policy
literature concerned with external effectiveness uses goal attainment as the
metric of effectiveness (Jørgensen et al. 2011: 603; see Dee 2013: 28–31).
Goal attainment, however, may be an unrealistic objective. Foreign poli-
cies frequently fail, at least for some considerable time, to achieve their
objectives because the goal is ambitious, the problem is intractable or
other actors are uncooperative (Jørgensen et al. 2011: 604). Influencing
the behavior of another great power when the policy in question is seen as
affecting a core interest of the state, as is the case with Russia and the crisis
in Ukraine (see Chap. 6), is a particularly tall order. Reference to goal
attainment in such cases, therefore, may yield an unfairly harsh assessment
of effectiveness. Comparison with another foreign policy actor, therefore,
helps to contextualize how demanding the policy objective is, thus permit-
ting a more nuanced assessment of effectiveness (see also Niemann and
Bretherton 2013 (eds)).

The Challenges of Comparison


Although the case for comparing the responses of the EU and the US to
the crisis in Ukraine is strong, there are some analytical challenges to the
comparison. Two sets of differences particularly stand out (see Table 1.1).
First, the EU and US vary considerably in their power resources relative to
Russia. As Mearsheimer (2014) and Walt (2014) contend, Russia is not a

Table 1.1 Economic interdependence, 2013 (US$ billion)


Trade partner Exports to Russia Imports from Russia Inward stock of FDI in Russia

EU 224.1 135.0 242.7


US 11.2 16.7 13.2
World 527.3 315.0 565.7

Sources: Trade data from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; world FDI stock from UNCTADSTAT; US
FDI stock based on own calculation from USTR (2016); EU FDI stock based on own calculation from
Commission 2016-DG Trade (convert from euros to dollars using IRS’s yearly average exchange rate)
INTRODUCING TRIANGULAR DIPLOMACY 5

peer competitor to the US. It is a regional power. In particular, this reflects


the relative military capabilities of the two countries. Although the US has
military superiority, its forces are relatively remote after the draw-down of
its forces in Europe after the end of the Cold War, although the Pentagon
redeployed heavily armed troops to eastern Europe beginning in January
2017. European forces, by contrast, are relatively close to Russia. Taken
together, the EU’s member states have considerable armed forces, but the
EU does not have a centralized army and there is much duplication, and
there is considerable doubt about their combat readiness (Cooper 2003;
Soesanto 2015). European forces are nearer to Russia than American
ones, but weaker.
In economic terms, by contrast the EU is much more important to
Russia than is the US. The EU is by far Russia’s most important trade
partner (see Table 1.1). In 2012, Russia’s trade with the EU was 14 times
greater than that with the US. In 2013, crude oil, natural gas and petro-
leum products accounted for 68 percent of Russia’s total exports.3 Seventy-­
one percent of its gas exports went to the EU (Commission 2014: 2).
Much is made of EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas. That depen-
dence, however, varies sharply among the member states, with some—
such as Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia—getting
all of their natural gas from Russia, while others—such as Denmark,
France, the Netherlands, Romania and the UK—get less than 20 percent
of their natural gas from Russia (Commission 2014: Annex 1). Moreover,
the EU is a vital export market for Russia. This interdependence is a source
of both influence and vulnerability for both the EU and Russia, while the
US is largely on the sidelines (see Chap. 9).
The second major set of differences between the EU and the US as
foreign policy actors concerns how foreign policy is made. Foreign policy-­
making in the US, at least in the macro-sense, is relatively straightforward.
Responsibility for foreign policy is centralized at the federal level.
Moreover, under both the Constitution and secondary legislation, the
president enjoys considerable authority to respond to crises such as that in
Ukraine (see Chaps. 2 and 3). The situation is very different in the EU,
where foreign policy decision-making remains primarily in the hands of
the member states, although they can and do take collective decisions
(White 2001; Chap. 4). Because of the pooled nature of decision-making
in the EU, all of the member state governments must agree, meaning that
any one member state can block common action. Thus, there are many
more veto players in the EU’s foreign policy process than there are in the
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