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 SAMI MAHROUM

BLACK SWAN
START-UPS
Understanding the Rise of Successful
Technology Business in Unlikely Places
Black Swan Start-ups
wwww
 Sami Mahroum

Black Swan Start-ups

Understanding the Rise of Successful Technology
Business in Unlikely Places
Sami Mahroum
INSEAD Abu Dhabi Campus
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

ISBN 978-1-137-57726-9 ISBN 978-1-137-57727-6 (eBook)

DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-57727-6

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016939256

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identified as the author(s) of this work in accordance
with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar
or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Macmillan Publishers Ltd. London
This book is dedicated to my parents, Mounir Salim Mahroum
and Douha Fatima Badiha, who have thrived all their lives
in less likely places.
wwww
 Foreword

Unicorns, which are start-ups with valuations exceeding US$1 billion,

have become a worldwide phenomenon. A decade ago, all unicorns
were from the USA. Nowadays they hail from every corner of the globe.
They come from Europe but also from emerging markets, Israel, Korea,
Indonesia and, above all, India and China.
This tectonic shift is part of the ongoing rebalancing of the wealth of
nations. Emerging markets are no longer (only) low-cost factory locations
but the home of some of the largest ever tech initial public offerings
(IPOs) (e.g., Alibaba) and the largest ever “score” of venture capital. Years
ago the investment arm of South African firm Naspers invested around
US$40 million in an unknown Chinese start-up called Tencent. Today
that stake is worth US$40 billion. This “score” is by far the largest ever,
more than that managed in Google by legendary venture firm Sequoia,
for example.
The shifting wealth of nations is today more than ever about tech,
start-ups and venture capital. This century will witness an increasing
number of rising tech stars from emerging markets and from the margins
of the start-up world. For example, Edinburgh, Scotland, known more
for its annual music festival than its tech companies, has given rise to two
unicorns, FanDuel and Skyscanner. But this trend, as this book will show,
is also evident in other traditionally peripheral places such as Bergen,

vii
viii Foreword

Tallinn, Lahore, Amman and Dubai. The major news is that successful
tech start-ups can rise up now from anywhere around the globe – and
emerging markets are a big part of this story.

The Emergence of Less Likely Places

While Europe is slowly losing its technology icons – the latest to fall being
Nokia, now in the process of reinventing itself with its 2015 acquisition
of Alcatel-Lucent – the emerging markets are becoming ever stronger in
innovation and technology. Some of their companies are already world
leaders in their respective sectors.
This is the real news: the emerging markets and the periphery of mature
economies are no longer low-cost, low-technology-intensive countries. It
is no longer a matter of trade and financial flows, but of countries and
regions betting on innovation and technology. And their bets far exceed
the usual European perception.
In 2015 the four so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
alone accounted for 43 % of the world’s population, 21 % of world gross
domestic product (GDP), and 20 % of direct foreign investment (nearly
US$205 billion). In less than a decade, trade among these nations increased
tenfold to surpass US$200 billion. These four countries are respectively
already the seventh, eighth, tenth and second world economic powers.
China already has as many companies as the UK (33) in the Financial
Times (FT) Global 500, which is composed of the world’s 500 largest
companies by market capitalisation. The same trend can be observed with
India and Brazil, which, with ten each, are already ahead of Spain, with
nine companies in the top 500.
Other countries, such as Singapore, are unseating the major western
financial centres, particularly those of Switzerland. Singapore is in fact
the first emerging economy to join the select club of triple-A countries
with the top international credit rating. Chile, Turkey and Mexico are
already members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). The greatest concentration of millionaires is
in Qatar, ahead of Switzerland (in fact, Qatar has the highest GDP per
capita in the world). Similarly, the world’s biggest airlines are now those
 Foreword ix

of emerging market countries, with the United Arab Emirates in the lead.
All seek to acquire iconic assets and, above all, to acquire knowledge with
the aim of providing services within their respective countries. Thus, in
2015 the Fosun Group bought Cirque du Soleil in order to round out its
offering of entertainment for China’s middle class, after buying Club Med,
also in 2015, and having bought a stake in travel agent Thomas Cook.

From Raw Materials to Killer Apps

But above all we are seeing a wave of technological expansion. We are

no longer dealing with countries with cheap labour full of raw materials
but with economies that are downloading so-called technological killer
apps’ at breakneck speed. In 2015, the world’s biggest supplier in the tele-
communications industry is no longer an American, French or Swedish
company but a Chinese one (Huawei). The world’s largest producer of
personal computers (PCs) is no longer American but Chinese (Lenovo).
One of the world’s most research and development (R&D)-intensive
companies is Korean (Samsung), which since 2013 has also been ahead of
its Finnish and American competitors as the leading producer of mobile
phones and devices. We are witnessing an unprecedented tectonic shift.
The spread of technology is accelerating as never before, in space and in
time, as Diego Comín points out.1
A clear case in point is that of South Korea. In the 1960s, South
Korea was poorer than Spain or any Latin American country.2 In 2015,
it surpassed them all in terms of GDP per capita, to say nothing of its
performance in education (equal with Finland in the OECD’s PISA
reports). In 1963, Korea exported goods at a value equivalent at cur-
rent prices to slightly more than US$600 million, comprised mainly
of agricultural and fishery products. In 2015, it exported more than
US$600 billion worth of goods, mainly electronics, machinery, chemical

1
See Diego Comín, Mikhail Dmitriev and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, “The Spatial Diffusion of
Technology,” Harvard University, Boston College and Princeton University, March 2013 (unpub-
lished). http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Edcomin/files/SDT.pdf
2
For a comparison between Spain and Korea, see one of the chapters in the book by Javier Santiso,
España 3.0: Necesitamosresetear el país, Barcelona, Planeta, 2015.
x Foreword

products and shipping technology. The giant Samsung Group consists of

more than 80 companies and employs over 380,000 people around the
world. In 2013, it even surpassed Apple, selling more smartphones and
generating more profits than its California-based rival.
Until recently, innovation, particularly corporate innovation, was
largely a western story. Multinationals from OECD countries designed,
produced and sold innovative products. Gradually another model estab-
lished itself: innovation was still conceived in the West, but it was produced
in emerging markets. This is Apple’s model with iPods and iPads, which
are partly produced in Taiwan, Korea or China. Now we are seeing a third
model emerge, in which innovation is not just produced and sold from
the emerging markets, but increasingly also being conceived in them.

New Companies from an Old World

This shift is bringing about an accelerated reordering of world company

classifications. The classifications of the most innovative companies
produced by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) or Forbes tell a similar
story. BCG’s Top 10 is headed by Tencent and also features a Taiwanese
company (Mediatek), a Mexican one (AméricaMóvil), another Chinese
one (China Mobile), two Indian companies (Bharti Airtel and Infosys)
and one South African company (MTN). In the Forbes list, too, Tencent
features in the Top 10 (again ahead of Apple and Google), and other names
include Brazil’s Natura Cosméticos and India’s Bharat Heavy Electricals.
The world of the Internet has always been dominated by US multi-
nationals. However, Tencent now has a market capitalisation of US$45
billion, ahead of eBay and Yahoo. From Moscow, Yuri Milner is revo-
lutionising the rules of digital venture capital, hitherto dominated by
California-based funds. His company, Digital Sky Technologies (DST),
owns mail.ru, one of the successful Russian start-ups listed on the London
Stock Exchange at a valuation of more than US$8 billion. His venture
capital fund is one of the few with holdings in Facebook, Zynga and
Groupon. In 2011, Milner launched a second fund, DST Global 2, at a
valuation of US$1 billion, an unheard-of size in Western Europe. From
Singapore, telecommunications operator Singtel also launched its own
 Foreword xi

venture capital fund in 2011, with more than US$250 million, in order
to accelerate the acquisition of technology start-ups. All these initiatives
show, as if further proof were needed, the extent of the emerging Asian
countries’ commitment to carving out an ever bigger space for themselves
in the world of start-ups and venture capital.
This phenomenon is not confined to Asia. The case of Naspers, a South
African multinational in the digital world, is a prime example: it obtains
more than 70 % of its revenues from the African continent but has also made
many acquisitions in emerging markets. The 45 % stake in Tencent which it
bought in 2011 has increased in value by more than 3100 % since then: so
the biggest “score” in the history of the Internet belongs to a fund based not
in California but in South Africa. Naspers has also invested US$390 million
in Russia’s mail.ru and holds 91 % of Brazilian start-up Buscapé, for which
it paid more than US$340 million. In Eastern Europe it bought Tradus for
more than US$1 billion in 2008. Since 2010 it has continued its buying
spree in Latin America, acquiring the Argentine start-up DineroMail, the
continent’s biggest online-payment firm, and Olx.com, in 2011, for nearly
US$145 million. Naspers now has a presence in 129 countries; with annual
revenues of approximately US$4 billion, it has 12,000 employees and has
become one of the main investors in emerging market start-ups.
We still tend to think of Silicon Valley as the all-powerful global centre
of innovation and technology. However, since 2013 China has occupied
second place as a global venture capital hub. There are more start-ups per
capita in Israel than in any other country in the world: there, venture
capital per capita has reached a record of more than US$140, double the
US$70 figure for the USA.
Brazil already has a more powerful ecosystem of start-ups and venture
capital funds than Spain does: in 2015 Brazil already has several venture
capital funds with more than US$100 million for investments exclusively
in Brazil (Spain has no fund of this size dedicated exclusively to investing
in Spain). Brazilian media group RBS launched e. Bricks, a fund of more
than US$100 million, to invest in Brazilian Internet companies. The
major California-based funds have now set sail for this new El Dorado:
Redpointe.ventures closed a US$130 million fund to invest in Brazilian
start-ups. European funds are on the move, too; in 2012, London-based
venture capital fund Atomico landed in Brazil.
xii Foreword

In 2013, Amadeus, another major European fund, closed a US$75

million fund with the South African telecom company MTN to invest in
start-ups in emerging markets, including African markets, such as Kenya
and South Africa, where there is also considerable movement. Telefónica
for its part made a massive commitment to emerging markets, particu-
larly those in Latin America, by means of a network of accelerator funds
in eight Latin American countries (Wayra) and venture capital funds in
three of them (Amerigo). Mexico’s América Móvil also invested in start-
ups in 2013, including the UK’s Shazam, in which it acquired an 11 %
stake for around US$40 million, proposing to spread the Shazam app
throughout the region.
Spanish groups have not been idle either, particularly BBVA, which set
up a US$100 million venture capital fund to invest in the USA and also,
occasionally, in Latin America. In 2013, it took part in an investment of
more than US$20 million in SumUp, a German financial services start-
up. Santander did likewise with Sweden’s iZettle in 2013. Both banks are
supporting these European start-ups in their internationalisation, open-
ing paths to the emerging markets of Latin America.
This leads us to imagine that, in addition to having executives based in
Spain to cover the Spanish market, these European start-ups, oriented by
Spanish banks towards Latin America, could also use Spain as the head-
quarters for executives responsible for developing new markets or, in any
case, Latin American markets (in the case of iZettle they are in London,
and in the case of SumUp they are in Berlin). Why not imagine Spain
(Madrid and Barcelona) becoming a hub for European start-ups looking
to enter Latin America (and viceversa, a gateway to Europe for start-ups
from Latin American and other emerging markets)?

From Copacabana to the NASDAQ: The Silent

Latin American Revolution
Technological change, beyond commercial and financial change, is
evident in China, India, Korea and Singapore. But it also encompasses
other regions of the world. Specifically, there has been a silent revolu-
tion in certain Latin American economies. In several countries in the
 Foreword xiii

region we are seeing an extraordinary flowering of entrepreneurship and

an unprecedented boom in multinationals that now extends well beyond
Mexico and Brazil, the two dominant regional powers.
For example, in 2010, when it joined the OECD, the Chilean government
launched Start-Up Chile, an ambitious and determined programme which
has already brought more than 1000 start-ups to Chile, leading to the
emergence of a “Chilecon Valley” in the Southern Cone. In 2013, Brazil
launched Start-up Brasil, and Peru followed suit in 2014. Colombia for
its part has promoted one of the continent’s most ambitious programmes
for digitalizing the economy. Through its Ministry of Information and
Communication Technology (ICT), it has launched a powerful digitaliza-
tion programme. These countries are thus leading the wave of expansion
in the region towards innovation, and let us not forget Mexico, which has
succeeded in carving out a place for itself in the aerospace industry, with a
powerful cluster in Querétaro.
In just a few years these activities have begun to bear fruit. Chile
has succeeded in putting itself on the world start-up map: in 2010,
its acceleration programme received some 100 applications, leading to
the selection of 22 start-ups; in the latest round, nearly 1600 projects
were presented, of which around 100 were selected. A key aspect is that
80 % of them came from abroad; one in every four start-ups selected
comes from the USA, with others coming from India, Spain, Russia and
the UK, as well as neighbouring South American countries. However,
the most powerful and unexpected effect of this programme has been
to arouse the entrepreneurial appetite of the Chileans themselves. Of
the 100 or so start-ups selected in 2013, 19 were Chilean – and the
figure increased further in 2014 and 2015. In barely 5 years, the pro-
gramme has launched nearly 1000 start-ups. Meanwhile, Chile’s venture
capital industry has also grown, with no fewer than six new funds being
launched in 2013, which will contribute some 125 million euros for
financing new start-ups.
As in Brazil and Colombia, Chile’s public institutions have played a
key role in promoting this boom. In Chile, the Corporación de Fomento
de la Producción de Chile (Corfo, or Chilean Production Development
Corporation, a government body) is a key instrument. In Brazil, the driving
force is split between the powerful BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank)
xiv Foreword

and Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (FINEP, or Funding Authority for

Studies and Projects, a government organisation for funding science and
technology). In Colombia, the Ministry of ICT (through Apps.co) and
the Banco de Comercio Exterior (Bancoldex, or Bank of Foreign Trade, a
state-owned bank that also acts as an entrepreneurial development bank)
are the prime movers of these changes. Admittedly, the continent still has
a long way to go before it can join the ranks of the world’s most innovative
regions: not a single Latin American company appears among the world’s
100 most innovative companies as identified by Thomson Reuters.
Some of the region’s technology companies, for example, Chile’s
Sonda, already have annual revenues exceeding US$1 billion. This Latin
American wave has only just begun: in 2013, in a Financial Times–
Telefónica Global Millenials survey carried out in 27 countries, young
people in Latin America led the responses of those seeing themselves
as technological leaders. In Colombia, 27 % of young people surveyed
were identified as technological leaders, just ahead of Peru (26 %), Chile
(22 %), Mexico (21 %) and Brazil (18 %). All these countries surpassed
the USA (16 %), the UK (13 %), Germany (12 %) and Spain and France
(6 % each). In other words: the youth of Latin America is being pushed
along on a wave of technological expansion that is much stronger than
what we are seeing in Europe.
Clichés about Latin America abound. We continue to see the region
as one big open-cast mine, brimming with raw materials and populist
uprisings. And in part, this is indeed still the case. But we would do
well to take note of the other Latin America that is emerging: thrusting,
innovative and disruptive. We should not be surprised to see before long
a Latin American start-up leap from Copacabana to the NASDAQ. In
fact, it has already happened: MercadoLibre has leapt from the shores of
Mar de Plata, and another called Globant, also from Argentina, took the
leap in 2014. Others will soon follow, from Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
We should not be surprised by this. Nor should we harbour any doubts
about whether it will occur. Perhaps in the future the next Google will
come from Rio de Janeiro. After all, the creator of Kinect, Microsoft’s star
product, is Brazilian.
 Foreword xv

In Conclusion
The book that follows represents an invitation to a journey towards many
remote towns where start-ups are now being nurtured. I underline Latin
American examples in order to stress other geographies that complement
those envisaged in the detailed case studies that will follow. They show
that Europe is also in the picture, and the trend extends far beyond the
usual suspect cities of London and Berlin; other geographies are part of
this wave, Asia, of course, but also the Middle East and Africa. The jour-
ney does not end in the towns and countries mentioned herein. More will
come as part of this newly emerging and shifting world, also in terms of
innovation, firms and technology.

IE Business School, Madrid, Spain Javier Santiso

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