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Toward Well-Oiled Relations?
The Nottingham China Policy Institute series

The Nottingham China Policy Institute series brings together cutting-edge schol-
arship, policy relevance and accessibility. It includes works on the economics,
society, culture, politics, international relations, national security and history of
the Chinese mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong in the twentieth- and twenty-
first centuries. Books in this series are written in an accessible style, although they
are based on meticulous research. They put forward exciting ideas and research
findings that specialist academics need to take note of while policy-makers and
opinion leaders will find inspiring. They represent innovative multidisciplinary
scholarship at its best in the study of contemporary China.

Titles include:
David Kerr (editor)
r
CHINA’S MANY DREAMS
Comparative Perspectives on China’s Search for National Rejuvenation
Shujie Yao and Pan Wang (editors)
CHINA’S OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND IMPACT ON THE
WORLD ECONOMY
Andreas Fulda (editor)
r
CIVIL SOCIETY CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLICY INNOVATION IN THE PR CHINA
Shujie Yao and Maria Jesus Herrerias (editors)
ENERGY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA
Jing Zhang
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GOVERNANCE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN
CHINA
Regional Dimensions
Steve Tsang (editor)
r
THE VITALITY OF TAIWAN
Politics, Economics, Society and Culture
Niv Horesh (editor)
r
TOWARD WELL-OILED RELATIONS?
China’s Presence in the Middle East Following the Arab Spring

The Nottingham China Policy Institute series

Series Standing Order ISBN 978–0–230–36922–1
You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order.
Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with
your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBN quoted above.
Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS, England.
Toward Well-Oiled
Relations?
China’s Presence in the Middle East
Following the Arab Spring

Edited by

Niv Horesh
Professor (Chair)r of the Modern History of China and Director of the China Policy
Institute at the University of Nottingham, UK
Selection, introduction and editorial matter © Niv Horesh 2016
Individual chapters © Contributors 2016
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-53978-6
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,
Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable for criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work
in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2016 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC,
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Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.

ISBN 978-1-349-57921-1 ISBN 978-1-137-53979-3 (eBook)

DOI 10.1057/9781137539793
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing
processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the
country of origin.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Toward well-oiled relations? : China’s presence in the Middle East following
the Arab Spring / [edited by] Niv Horesh.
pages cm. — (The Nottingham China Policy Institute series)
1. China – Foreign relations – Middle East. 2. Middle East – Foreign
relations – China. 3. China – Foreign economic relations – Middle East.
4. Middle East – Foreign economic relations – China. I. Horesh, Niv, editor.
DS740.5.M53T69 2016
327.51056—dc23 2015025775
Contents

List of Figures vii

List of Tables viii

Notes on Contributors ix

Introduction 1
Niv Horesh

1 Sino-American Crosscurrents in the Middle East:

Perceptions and Realities 5
Yitzhak Shichor

2 An Alternative Partner to the West? China’s Growing

Relations with Turkey 19
Zan Tao

3 A New Eurasian Embrace: Turkey Pivots East While China

Marches West 30
Christina Lin

4 The Perception of the 2009 Ürümqi Conflict across the

Islamic World 48
Robert R. Bianchi

5 China’s Dual Diplomacy: Arab Iraq and the Kurdistan

Region 69
Mohammed Shareef

6 An Analysis of the Evolution of Sino-Egyptian Economic

Relations 94
Yasser M. Gadallah

7 Chinese and US Energy Policy in the Middle East 115

Gawdat Bahgat

8 Does Likud Have a “Look East” Option? 125

Niv Horesh
9 China and the Gulf Co-operation Council: The Rebound
Relationship 148
Neil Quilliam
v
vi Contents

10 Chinese Policy in the Middle East in the Wake of the Arab

Uprisings 162
Michael Singh

11 China and Iran: Expanding Cooperation under

Conditions of US Domination 180
John W. Garver

12 The Future of Sino-Iran Relations 206

Manochehr Dorraj

Conclusion: China’s Growing Presence in the Middle East 216

Niv Horesh and Ruike Xu

Index 233
List of Figures

2.1 Trade between Turkey and China (US$ million) 21

3.1 The world from Kashgar 38
6.1 FDI flows between China and Egypt, 2005–2012 (US$ million) 100
6.2 Total Egyptian exports and imports to and from China,
1995–2012 (US$ million) 103
6.3 Development of deficit in Egypt’s balance of trade with
China, 1995–2012 104
6.4 Egyptian exports to China by economic sector, 2002 105
6.5 Egyptian exports to China by economic sector, 2012 106
6.6 Egyptian imports from China by economic sector, 2002 107
6.7 Egyptian imports from China by economic sector, 2012 108
6.8 Growth rate in Egyptian exports to China by economic
sector 109
6.9 Growth rate in Egyptian imports from China by
economic sector 109
11.1 Investment in IRI Oil and Gas, 1999–2009 195

vii
List of Tables

1.1 Favourable Middle Eastern attitudes toward China and

the US, 2007–2014 10
1.2 Middle Eastern perceptions of the US and China as
partner or enemy, 2013 11
1.3 China and US consideration of Middle Eastern interests,
2013 14
2.1 Turkish-Sino trade (US$ million) 21
5.1 Chinese oil imports from Iraq 74
5.2 Rise in import rates between China and Iraq 76
5.3 Substantial increase in trade between China and Iraq 76
6.1 Prediction of the Egyptian exports and imports to and
from China, 2014–2019 ($US million) 105
11.1 Balancing of “Pro-US” and “Pro-IRI” elements of China’s
UN position, 2003–2011 190
11.2 PRC balancing between US and IRI, 2013–2014 191
11.3 Chinese entities sanctioned by the United States,
2002–2009 193
11.4 International Supply of Arms to Iran ($US million) 198
11.5 Chinese transfers of anti-ship missiles to Iran 198

viii
Notes on Contributors

Gawdat Bahgat is Professor of National Security Affairs at the National

Defense University’s Near East South Asia Centre for Strategic Study. He
is an Egyptian-born specialist in Middle Eastern policy, covering Egypt,
Iran, and the Gulf region. His areas of research include energy secu-
rity, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, counter-terrorism,
the Arab-Israeli conflict, North Africa, and American foreign policy in
the Middle East. Bahgat’s career combines academia with practicing
national security, and he has served as an advisor to several govern-
ments and oil companies. He is the author of eight books, including
Energy Securityy (2011), International Political Economyy (2010), Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle Eastt (2007), Israel and the Persian Gulff
(2006), and American Oil Diplomacyy (2003).

Robert R. Bianchi is a political scientist and international lawyer with

special interests in China and the Islamic world. He earned his doctorate
and law degrees from the University of Chicago. He has taught at the
University of Chicago, The University of Pennsylvania, The American
University in Cairo, Nanjing University, Qatar University, and The
National University of Singapore. His books include Islamic Globalization:
Pilgrimage, Capitalism, Democracy, and Diplomacy, Guests of God: Pilgrimage
and Politics in the Islamic World, Unruly Corporatism: Associational Life in
Twentieth-Century Egypt, and Interest Groups and Political Development in
Turkey. Currently he is writing a book about China’s deepening relations
with the Islamic world and their impact on the changing balance of
power in Afro-Eurasia and beyond.

Manochehr Dorraj is Professor of Political Science at Texas Christian

University and teaches courses in international and comparative poli-
tics. He has written extensively on the politics of the Middle East and
North Africa, regional foreign policies and international affairs. His
latest book, a co-edited volume, is titled China’s Energy Relations with the
Developing World. He has also published numerous scholarly articles and
book chapters on China–Middle East energy relations and China–Iran
relations. He has been an invited speaker to universities and think tanks
throughout the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. He has also
given numerous interviews to international, national, and local media
on Middle Eastern affairs and their global impact.

ix
x Notes on Contributors

Yasser M. Gadallah is Professor of Economics and is the Director of the

Chinese-Egyptian Research Center, Helwan University (HU) in Cairo,
Egypt. He completed a BA in International Economics from Helwan
University and received a licentiate of law from Cairo University. He
holds an MA and PhD in International Economics (intellectual prop-
erty: patents). Previously, he was deputy director of the Foreign Trade
Center, HU (2003–2005), Associate Professor of Economics (2008–2013),
director of the Quality Assurance Unit (2006–2007), consultant of
strategic planning at the Ministry of Higher Education, Egypt (2006–
2012); consultant of intellectual property economics at the Information
Decision Support Cabinet (2008–2010), League of Arab States (2010–
2012). He has authored more than 15 papers on economics, the labor
market, higher education, and intellectual property. He has participated
in different research projects funded by the World Bank, the Organization
of Economic Cooperation Development, the League of Arab States, and
the European Training Foundation.

John W. Garverr is a professor at the Sam Nunn School of International

Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is a member of the
editorial boards of the journals China Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary
China, and the Journal of American-East Asian Relations, and a member
of the National Committee on US–China Relations. He is the author of
11 books and over 100 articles dealing with China’s foreign relations.
He holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Colorado.
He specializes in Asian international relations and China’s foreign
relations.
Niv Horesh is Professor of the Modern History of China and Director
of the China Policy Institute in the School of Contemporary Chinese
Studies at the University of Nottingham. He completed his PhD in
Asian Studies at the Australian National University and has worked at
the University of Western Sydney, Australia. His researches include the
economic history of China, China in world history, the socio-economic
history of Shanghai, and eighteenth- and nineteenth-centuries depic-
tions of East Asia.

Christina Lin is a fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the

Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns
Hopkins University, where she focuses on China’s increasing footprint
in the Mediterranean basin and on ways that China, NATO, and US
allies can cooperate to resolve regional security issues. She is a former
visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and was
 Notes on Contributors xi

selected as a 2011 National Security Fellow at the Foundation for Defense

of Democracies. She has extensive US government experience, having
served at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security
Council, the Department of State, the Export-Import Bank of the United
States, and the federally funded Institute for Defense Analyses. She holds
a PhD and an MSc from the London School of Economics, an MA from
the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies,
and a BA from the University of California, Irvine.

Neil Quilliam is senior research fellow at Chatham House, where he

currently runs a two-year Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO)-
funded project, Future Trends in the Gulf. He served as Senior MENA
Energy Adviser at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) between
2009 and 2014. Prior to working with the UK government, Quilliam
led Control Risks’ Middle East and North Africa practice and advised
governments and multinationals, including IOCs, on political risk. He
played a key role in helping a number of multinationals negotiate a
return to the Middle East region following a series of evacuations during
the early 2000s. He holds a PhD in International Relations from Durham
University and wrote his thesis on Syria and the New World Order. He
has authored several books on Syria and contributed many chapters in
edited volumes on Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Gulf Co-operation Council
states, and serves on the Advisory Committee to Chatham House’s GCC
Energy Intensity project.

Mohammed Shareeff is a fellow of the Royal Asiatic Society (London).

He has worked for the United Nations and is Lecturer in Politics and
International Relations of the Middle East at the University of Exeter
in the United Kingdom and Lecturer in International Relations at the
University of Sulaimani in Iraqi Kurdistan. Shareef holds a PhD in
International Relations at the University of Durham and has an MSc in
International Relations from the University of Bristol. He is a founding
member and member of the board of directors of the London Kurdish
Institute. His research interests include US foreign policy in the Middle
East. He is the author of The United States, Iraq and the Kurds: Shock, Awe
and Aftermath (2014).

Yitzhak Shichorr is Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Asian

Studies at the University of Haifa and the Michael William Lipson Chair
Professor Emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. A former dean
of students at the Hebrew University and head of the Tel-Hai Academic
College, his main research interests include China’s Middle East policy;
xii Notes on Contributors

international energy relations; Chinese defense conversion; labor export;

East Asian democratization processes; Sino–Uyghur relations and the
Uyghur Diaspora.
Michael Singh is a managing director of the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, a nonpartisan think tank. He was formerly senior
director for Near East and North African Affairs at the White House
(2007–2008) and also served as special assistant to Secretaries of State
Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. He co-chaired Governor Mitt
Romney’s state department transition team in 2012, and served as a
Middle East advisor to the Romney presidential campaign. He has served
as an adjunct fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard’s Kennedy School
of Government and as an economics instructor at Harvard University,
and is a senior advisor to Callaway Capital Management, an emerging
markets investment firm. His writings have appeared in The Washington
Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, International Security,
and elsewhere, and he has appeared as a commentator on CNN, NBC,
BBC, and Fox News.
Zan Tao is Associate Professor of Turkish Studies, History Department,
and Deputy Director of the Center for Global Modernization Studies at
Peking University. He completed his PhD in History at Peking University
in 2007. He has been a visiting scholar at Middle East Technical University
(2005–2006), Center of Afro-Oriental Studies in Brazil (2008), Bogazici
University (2008), and Indiana University-Bloomington (2012–2013).
He also worked at Tibetan University (2010–2011).

Ruike Xu has completed his PhD in the School of Politics and

International Relations at the University of Nottingham. He holds an
MA from Shandong University, China. His research focuses mainly on
Anglo–American relations, Israeli–American relations, Alliance theories
and China’s foreign policy.
Introduction
Niv Horesh

What is at stake?

Over the last few years, China has definitively surpassed the United
States as the world’s leading energy consumer and net importer of
oil. Thus, China’s relations with the Middle East appear poised to
become an ever more important issue with global implications, as the
latter region possesses the world’s largest crude oil reserves.1 In this
pioneering volume, we attempt to clarify for lay readers several closely
related topics that are critical to understanding the relevance of China’s
rise to the aspirations of various Middle Eastern nations, how Chinese
energy needs are changing, and the ways in which a more economically
powerful China might seek to reconfigure its ties with various Middle
Eastern stakeholders.
No single formula exists from which to extrapolate the nature of
China’s future relations with the Middle East exist. China’s presence in
the region is tripartite in orientation rather than bilateral; its policy is
still strategically grounded in the American-policed security and institu-
tional architecture. The US is the de facto arbiter of Chinese overtures
to, for example, major oil producer Saudi Arabia, even if Chinese and
US rhetoric remains ostensibly at loggerheads over the Iranian nuclear
programme.
Neither can the current People’s Republic of China (PRC) leadership
under Xi Jinping be portrayed as actively seeking to undermine American
hegemony in the region, even if its emerging global leadership narrative
is bolder than was the case under Hu Jintao. To the contrary, as China
becomes more reliant on Middle Eastern oil and the American security
architecture that permits free navigation across the Hormuz Straits,
there is a strong Sino-American convergence of interests in the Middle

1
2 Niv Horesh

East that might actually alleviate Pacific tensions between the US and
China in the future.
These findings may temper alarmists’ view about a supposedly inevi-
table global military confrontation between China and America. Harvard
Law School’s Noah Feldman has, for example, asserted that China and
the United States are on the verge of nott a Cold War but of a “Cool War,”
in which a “classic struggle for power is unfolding at the same time as
economic cooperation is becoming deeper and more fundamental ... .”
Feldman further alluded to a “resource race” that might pit China against
the US through proxy wars across the Middle East, particularly in regard
to Iran’s ambitions to become a regional hegemon.2
The Arab Spring has gravely alarmed policy makers in Beijing not just
because of concerns over oil supplies, but also because of the spread
of social media as a means to challenge the established order. On the
other hand, there are no signs yet that the so-called China Dream/
China Model is inspiring serious economic or political reform across
the Middle East, even if admiration for China’s economic achievements
does exist.3 As the Obama administration’s enthusiasm for Arab-Spring–
like – often Islamist-led – democratisation wanes, so do Chinese geo-
political concerns. In the words of eminent Middle East expert, Anoush
Ehteshami, who was one of the first to observe the region’s tilt eastwards
two decades ago, China is poised to play a much bigger role around the
Gulf than Japan or Korea ever did. Yet China’s supplanting of the US
as the world’s leading superpower or even as the Middle East’s security
arbiter is far from certain; until the 1990s, Japan had been mooted as an
Asian powerhouse that was about to take over from the US. However,
Japanese power and ambition never transcended the economic realm.4

Policy rationale and specific themes

Xi Jinping’s taking of the helm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

and of China has arguably put to rest Deng Xiaoping’s long-running
hide-and-bide policy. In other words, China is seeking to project soft
power in parts of the world where it had hitherto been operating more
quietly. The academic literature on Chinese soft power is growing
rapidly, yet little to date has been published on the degree to which
China’s newly acquired economic cachet and soft-power projections are
actually shifting popular perceptions in the developing world.
While the US has arguably become more self-reliant in terms of
energy production over the last two years and is supposedly considering
divesting itself from the Middle East following two controversial wars,
 Introduction 3

China is ostensibly ramping up its presence there. CCP media hints

that if a US redeployment to East Asia (Pivot to Asia) is concretized,
China will seek to more visibly edge the US out of the Middle East. Xi’s
much touted recent initiative One Road, One Belt that is themed on the
ancient Silk Road may in fact be designed to that end. But most of the
contributors to this volume contend that these are rhetorical maneuvers
that will have little bearing on the strategic bonds that will continue to
unite China and the US for the foreseeable future.
In the opening chapter, Professor Yitzhak Shichor broadly suggests that
Middle Eastern perceptions of China can be divided into three periods. In
the first period, from the 1950s to the 1970s, regional governments, intel-
lectuals, and the media perceived China as a marginal player of incon-
sequent value – political, economic and military. Even revolutionary
organizations and national liberation movements (not to mention govern-
ments) tended to keep away from China and were suspicious of any of
Beijing’s actions that undermined the status quo. Instead, they preferred
to associate with the Soviet Union or the United States. Mao’s style of
revolution, while attractive to some, was ultimately rejected. As China
was beginning its post-Mao reform in the 1980s and 1990s, the uncer-
tainty about China’s success and progress was reflected not only inside
China but also abroad, including in the Middle East. It is only since the
beginning of the 21st century, and especially in the second decade, that
China’s rise has appeared irreversible and its global role unchallenged.
Middle Eastern perceptions of China now reflect a number of contra-
dictory attitudes. For one, China has gained respect and admiration for
achieving fast economic growth through market-friendly reforms but
without relinquishing authoritarianism. Nevertheless, concern about
China’s economic and cultural expansion does exist particularly in
Islamist circles. And, finally, there are now expectations that Beijing –
given its perceived power – will play a more proactive role, not just in
terms of trade benefits but most importantly in concrete deeds and poli-
tics in safeguarding and promoting the Middle East, e.g. by helping the
Palestinian cause.
Our contributors survey in detail which regional actors are engaging
with Chinese partners and how different regional actors are responding
to that engagement. Given the different motivations that specific groups
have, what do they have to gain from joining or rejecting China’s
engagement? Does China’s engagement reduce or exacerbate existing
cleavages? Do China’s engagements elsewhere in the world suggest
what outcomes might emerge in the Middle East in terms of both public
discourse and geo-strategy?
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