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Wolfgang Marty

Fixed
Income
Analytics
Bonds in High and Low Interest Rate
Environments
Second Edition
Fixed Income Analytics
Wolfgang Marty

Fixed Income Analytics

Bonds in High and Low Interest Rate
Environments

Second Edition
Wolfgang Marty
Zurich, Switzerland

ISBN 978-3-030-47157-6 ISBN 978-3-030-47158-3 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47158-3

# Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the
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Foreword

In light of an investment environment characterized by low yields and new regu-

latory capital regimes, it has become increasingly demanding for investors to achieve
sustainable returns. Particularly, fixed income investments are called into question.
There is a solution.
Since the foundation of AgaNola a decade ago, we have put our interest into
convertibles, and at this point, we want to thank our clients for having supported us
also in challenging times—particularly when convertible bonds were considered at
most a niche investment. Unjustly!
For being a hybrid, convertible bonds offer the “best of both worlds,” the benefits
of an equity with the advantages of a corporate bond. AgaNola is considered a
leading provider in this asset class, and to date, convertible bonds remain the core
competence of us as a specialized asset manager.
As we consider increasingly popular convertible bonds a living and dynamic
universe, we are placing great importance on research and the exploration of the
nature of this asset class. As an internationally renowned expert in the fixed income
and bond field, Dr. Wolfgang Marty has contributed valuable insights to our work—
making the bridge from theory to portfolio management. AgaNola is committed to
continue to support his fundamental research.
We wish Wolfgang Marty lots of success with his latest book.

AgaNola AG Stefan Hiestand

Pfäffikon, Switzerland

v
Foreword

Compared to other asset classes, fixed income investments are routinely considered
as a relatively well-understood, transparent, and (above all) safe investment. The
notions of yield, duration, and convexity are referred to confidently and resolutely in
the context of single bonds as well as bond portfolios, and the effects of interest rates
are generally believed to be well understood.
At the same time, we live in a world where the amount of private, corporate, and
sovereign debt is steadily increasing and where postcrisis stimuli continue to affect
and distort investor behavior and markets in an unprecedented way. And that is even
before we start contemplating the enormous uncertainties introduced by negative
interest rates.
In his book, Dr. Wolfgang Marty covers and expands on classic fixed income
theory and terminology with a clarity and transparency that is rare to be found in a
world where computerization of accepted facts often is the norm. Wolfgang
highlights obvious but commonly unknown conflicts that can be observed, for
example, when applying standard theory outside its default setting or when migrat-
ing from single to multiple bond portfolios. He also includes the effects of negative
interest rates into standard theory.
Wolfgang’s book makes highly informative reading for anyone exposed to fixed
income concepts, be it as a portfolio manager or as an investor, and it shows that
often we understand less than we think when studying bond or bond portfolio
holdings purely based on their commonly accepted key metrics; Wolfgang
encourages to ask questions. Anyone building automated software would benefit
from familiarity with the model discrepancies highlighted as it is to everyone’s
disadvantage if we find these too deeply rooted in commonly and widely applied
tools.
In summary, Wolfgang’s book makes interesting reading for the fixed income
novice as well as the seasoned practitioner.

Record Currency Management Jan Hendrik Witte

Windsor, UK

vii
Preface

Computers have become more and more powerful and often are an invaluable aid.
But there is a considerable disadvantage: often, the output of a computer program is
difficult to understand, and the end user may be swamped by data. In addition,
computers solve problems in many dimensions, and, as human beings, we struggle
thinking in more than a few dimensions. To provide a sound background of
understanding to anyone working in fixed income, we intend to illustrate here the
essential basic calculations, followed by easy to understand examples.
The reporting of return and risk figure is paramount in the asset management
industry, and the portfolio manager is often rewarded on performance figures. The
first motivation for the here presented material were the findings of a working group
of the Swiss Bond Commission (OKS), where we compared the yield for a fixed
income benchmark portfolio calculated by different software providers: we found
different yields for the same portfolio and the same underlying time periods. The
following questions are obvious: How can a regulating body accept ambiguous
figures? Should there not be a standard?
An additional complication is linearization, often the first step in analyzing a bond
portfolio. The yield of the bonds in a bond portfolio is routinely added to report the
yield of the total bond portfolio, and different durations of bonds in the portfolio are
simply added to indicate the duration of a bond portfolio. We found that linearization
works well for a flat yield curve, but the more the yield deviates from a flat curve, the
more the resulting figures become questionable.
Also, historically, interest rates have been positive. In the present market conditions,
however, interest rates are close to zero or even slightly negative. We find ourselves
confronted with several questions: Does the notion of duration still make sense in this
new environment? And which formulae can be applied for interest rates equal or very
close to zero? How do discount factors behave? In the following, we attempt to include
negative interest in our considerations. For instance, in the world of convertibles, yield
to maturities can easily be negative and is not problematic.
We describe the here presented material in three ways. Firstly, we use words and
sentences, in order to give an introduction into in the notions, definitions, ideas, and
concepts. Secondly, we introduce equations. Thirdly, we also use tables and figures
in order to make the outputs of our numerical calculations accessible.

ix
Preface for Second Edition

The first edition has been published in 2017. In the meantime, I had different
opportunities for representing the material of the book. I realized that Fixed Income
Analytics is not limited to topics that are known in the community.
I could also establish new work relationships. In particular, I would like to
mention Moorad Choudry. His book Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve
was of special interest for me. We had interesting discussions and I contributed a
chapter on negative interest rate in the second edition of his book which appeared in
2019.
Special thanks go to Martin Hillebrand and his team working at ESM (European
Stability Mechanism). I could discuss my recent research results.
As I am a member of the Fixed Income Index Commission at the SIX, Fixed
Income Analytics could be used for enhancing the analytics of the SBI (Swiss Bond
Index). The ongoing conversations with Andreas Henke are inspiring and construc-
tive. For instance, the topic “Macaulay duration” is revised and expanded. In
particular, negative rates are also considered.
I am grateful to Ralf Seschek who updated and refined his sections on the
comparison of the normal distribution with the data observed in the market.
A chapter on multicurrency portfolio has been added. We start with some basics
notions of hedging currency exposure followed by an exposition of the be
Karnosky–Singer attribution. My first book Portfolio Analytics describes the main
concepts of performance attribution. In the second edition of Fixed Income Analyt-
ics, we focus on the currency effect of a multicurrency portfolio. Many thanks to
Karl Weber. He provided all charts for Chap. 10. They can be updated continually.

Pfaeffikon SZ, Switzerland Wolfgang Marty

November 24, 2019

xi
Acknowledgments

This book is based on several presentations, courses, and seminars held in Europe
and the Middle East. The presented material is based on a compilation of notes and
presentations. Presenting fixed income is a unique experiment and I am grateful for
the many feedbacks from the audience. The initial motivation for the book was a
seminar held at the education center of the SIX Swiss Exchange. I became aware that
many issues in fixed income need to be restudied and revised; moreover, I did not
find satisfying answers to my questions in the pertinent literature. The SIX Swiss
Exchange Bond Advisory Group was an excellent platform for analyzing open
issues.
Furthermore, the working group “Portfolio Analytics” of the Swiss Bond Com-
mission was instrumental for the research activities. In particular my thanks go to
Geraldine Haldi, Dominik Studer, and Jan Witte. They revised part of the manuscript
and provided helpful comments.
The European Bond Commission (EBC) was very important for my professional
development. The members of the EBC Executive Committee Chris Golden and
Christian Schelling gave me continuing support for my activities, and the EBC
sessions throughout Europe yielded important ideas for the book.
At the moment I am focusing on convertibles. My thanks go to Marco Turinello
and Lukas Buxtorf for introducing me into the analytics of convertibles. The last
chapter of the book is dedicated to convertibles.
The book was written over several years, and I am grateful to my present
employer AgaNola for the opportunity to complete this book.

xiii
Conventions

This book consists of eight chapters. The chapters are divided into sections. (1.2.3)
denotes formula (3) in Sect. 1.2. If we refer to formula (2) in Sect. 1.2, we only write
(2); otherwise we use the full reference (1.2.2). Within the chapters, definitions,
assumptions, theorems, and examples are numerated continually, e.g., Theorem 2.1
refers to Theorem 1 in Chapter 2.
Square brackets [ ] contain references. The details of the references are given at
the end of each chapter.

xv
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 The Time Value of Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1 The Return Over a Time Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Discount Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3 Annuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3 The Flat Yield Curve Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.1 The Description of a Straight Bond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2 Yield Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.3 Durations and Convexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4 The Internal Rate of Return for a Bond Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.1 The Direct Yield of the Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2 Different Approximation Scheme for the Internal
Rate of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.3 Macaulay Duration Approximation Versus Modified
Duration Approximation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.4 Numerical Illustrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
5 The Term Structure of Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
5.1 Spot Rate and the Forward Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.2 Discrete Forward Rate and the Instantaneous Forward Curve . . . 91
5.3 Spot Rate and Yield Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
5.4 The Effective Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6 Spread Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
6.1 Interest Rate Spread . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
6.2 Rating Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6.3 Composite Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.4 Optionality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

xvii
xviii Contents

7 Different Fixed Income Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

7.1 Segmentation of the Yield Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.2 Floating Rate Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
7.3 Interest Rate Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
7.4 Asset Swap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
8 Fixed-Income Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
8.1 Definition and Fundamental Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
8.2 Constructing a Fixed Income Benchmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
8.3 Recent Developments in the Benchmark Industry . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.4 Fixed Income as Asset Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8.4.1 Equity Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
8.4.2 Fixed Income Indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
8.4.3 Hedged Fixed Income Indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
8.4.4 Commodity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
8.5 Balanced Portfolios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
8.5.1 Portfolio Selection and Modern Portfolio Theory . . . . . 156
8.5.2 Pitfalls of Modern Portfolio Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
8.5.3 Modern Portfolio Theory Assumptions Versus
Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
8.5.4 Hypothesis Testing of the MPT Assumptions . . . . . . . . 157
8.5.5 Visual Comparison of Idealized and Real Data . . . . . . . 159
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
9 Convertible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
9.1 Basics Notions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
9.2 The Embedded Call Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
9.3 Hedging Proprieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
9.4 Modelling the Price of a Convertible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
10 Multi-Currency Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
10.1 Basic Notions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
10.2 Currency Hedging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
10.3 Karnosky-Singer-Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
10.3.1 Return Attribution for a Multi-Currency Portfolio . . . . . 186
10.3.2 Extension of the BHB to Multi-Currency Portfolio . . . . 190
10.4 Two Illustrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Appendix A: Closed Formula for the Geometrical Series . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Appendix B: Landau Symbol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Appendix C: Application of the Landau Symbol to the Taylor Series . . 205
Appendix D: Finite Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Contents xix

Appendix E: Integral, Riemann Sum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

Appendix F: Linear Interpolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Appendix G: Macaulay Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Appendix H: Explicit Formula of Condition (3.3.6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Appendix I: A Closed Formula for Convexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Appendix J: Cubic Splines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Appendix K: See Also [2] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
Appendix L: Derivation of Black Scholes Differential Equation . . . . . . 222
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
About the Author

Wolfgang Marty is senior investment strategist at AgaNola, Pfaeffikon SZ,

Switzerland. Between 1998 and 2015, he was working with Credit Suisse. He joined
Credit Suisse Asset Management in 1998 as head product engineer. He specializes in
performance attribution, portfolio optimization, and fixed income in general.
Prior to joining Credit Suisse Asset Management, Marty worked for UBS AG in
London, Chicago, and Zurich. He started his career as an assistant for applied
mathematics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.
Marty holds a university degree in mathematics from the Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology in Zurich and a doctorate from the University of Zurich. He chairs the
method and measure subcommittee of the European Bond Commission (EBC) and is
president of the Swiss Bond Commission (OKS). Furthermore, he is a member of the
Fixed Income Index Commission at the SIX Swiss Exchange and a member of the
Index Team that monitors the Liquid Swiss Index (LSI).

xxi
Introduction
1

Abstract

A fixed-income security is a financial obligation of an entity that promises to pay

a specified sum of money at specified future dates. The entity can be a govern-
ment, a company, or an individual and is called an issuer. The investor lends a
specified amount of money to the issuer. A bond is a legal engagement between
the issuer and an investor.

A fixed-income security is a financial obligation of an entity that promises to pay a

specified sum of money at specified future dates. The entity can be a government, a
company, or an individual and is called an issuer. The investor lends a specified
amount of money to the issuer. A bond is a legal engagement between the issuer and
an investor.
A bond is a fixed-income instrument and has usually a finite live. Periodic future
cash flows from the issuer to the investor are called the coupon of the bond. Coupons
are unaffected by market movements for the live of the bond and reflect the notion
“fixed income.” As depicted in Fig. 1.1, a straight bond or a coupon paying bond is a
bond that pays a coupon periodically and pays back at the end of its live the money
that was originally invested. For precise definitions and analytics, we refer to
Chap. 3.
The bond markets have grown tremendously, and today there is a large universe
of organizations that issues bonds. Together with equities, bonds are the two major
traditional asset classes in financial markets. There are much different bonds than
equities. For instance, there were 5447 shares traded and admitted to trading on the
EU regulated market (mifiddatabase.esma.europa.eu), and TRAX has data for
300,000 government bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and private deriv-
ative issues (xtrakter.com).

# Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 1

W. Marty, Fixed Income Analytics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47158-3_1
2 1 Introduction

cash
flows

Original
investment

coupon coupon coupon coupon Original time

Investment +
coupon

Fig. 1.1 Straight bonds

Outstanding U.S. Bond Market Debt

18.000,0

16.000,0

14.000,0

12.000,0
Municipal
10.000,0
Treasury
8.000,0 Mortgage related

6.000,0 Corporate

4.000,0

2.000,0

0,0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Fig. 1.2 The development of the US bond market

The time to maturity and the coupon are fixed at the issuance of a bond and are
thus called static data or reference data, whereas the market price is determined by
the trading activity and is thus called market data.
Unlike equities, every bond has potentially special and unique features. A
company has one or two kinds of equities but many different bonds. Bond markets
are very fragmented. Figure 1.2 (see www.sifma.org/research/statistics.aspx) shows
the development of the four most important segments of the US Bond Market. Ever
since interest rates began to climb in the late 1960s, the appeal for fixed-income
instrument has increased. This is due to the fact that interest levels were competitive
with other instruments, and at the same time, the market rates began to fluctuate
widely, providing investors with attractive capital gain opportunities emphasizing
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