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 Performance Politics and the British Voter

What matters most to voters when they choose their leaders? This
book suggests that performance politics is at the heart of contemporary
democracy, with voters forming judgments about how well competing
parties and leaders perform on important issues. Given the high stakes
and uncertainty involved, voters rely heavily on partisan cues and party
leader images as guides to electoral choice. However, the authors argue
that the issue agenda of British politics has changed markedly in recent
years. A cluster of concerns about crime, immigration and terrorism now
mix with perennial economic and public service issues. Since voters and
parties often share the same positions on these issues, political competi-
tion focuses on who can do the best job. This book shows that a model
emphasizing flexible partisan attachments, party leader images and judg-
ments of party competence on key issues can explain electoral choice in
Britain and elsewhere.

H a rol d D. C l a r k e is Ashbel Smith Professor in the School of

Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at
Dallas and Director of the Social and Economic Sciences Division of the
National Science Foundation.

Dav i d S a n de r s is Professor of Government at the University of

Essex.

M a r i a n n e C . St e wa r t is Professor of Political Science in the School

of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at
Dallas.

Pau l F. Wh i t e l e y is Professor of Government at the University of

Essex.
Performance Politics and
the British Voter

H a rol d D. C l a r k e
Dav i d S a n de r s
M a r i a n n e C. S t e wa rt
Pau l F. W h i t e l e y
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore,
São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521874441
© Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul F. Whiteley 2009

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the

provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part
may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2009

ISBN-13 978-0-511-59647-6 eBook (NetLibrary)

ISBN-13 978-0-521-87444-1 Hardback

ISBN-13 978-0-521-69728-6 Paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy

of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Contents

List of figures page vi

List of tablesx
Acknowledgmentsxiii
1 Performance politics and the British voter 1
2 The theory of valence politics 30
3 Valence politics and the long campaign 53
4 Tony’s war 103
5 Electoral choices 143
6 The short campaign 192
7 Voting and political participation 231
8 Performance, people and the political system 272
9 Performance politics reconsidered 306
Appendix A: Vote in 2005 by socio-demographic
characteristics321
Appendix B: Turnout by socio-demographic
characteristics324
Appendix C: Dynamics of party identification 327
Notes331
Bibliography352
Index367

v
Figures

1.1 Vote shares, United Kingdom, 1945–2005

general elections page 7
1.2 Voting turnout, United Kingdom, 1945–2005
general elections 8
1.3 Party identification, 1964–2005 11
1.4 Feelings about party leaders, 1997, 2001, 2005 12
1.5 Survey design, the 2005 British Election Study 20
3.1 Most important issues facing the country,
2001 and 2005 56
3.2 The changing issue agenda, January 1985–
December 2005 57
3.3 Dynamics of internal and external security issues,
January 1985–December 2005 58
3.4 Relationship between unemployment as one of top
three issues and the unemployment rate, 1985–2005 59
3.5 Relationship between inflation as one of top three
issues and the inflation rate, 1985–2005 60
3.6 Relationship between crime as one of top three
issues and incidence of violent crime, 1985–2005 61
3.7 Relationship between asylum/immigration/race
as one of top three issues and number of asylum
applications, 1996–2004 62
3.8 Relationship between asylum/immigration/race
as one of top three issues and number of grants of
settlement, 1993–2005 63
3.9 Trend in the dynamics of security issues,
1985–2005 65
3.10 The dynamics of party support,
June 1997–April 2005 69
3.11 Tony Blair’s ratings as best prime minister,
June 1997–April 2005 71

vi
List of figures vii

3.12 Labour versus Conservatives as party best able to

manage the economy, June 1997–April 2005 72
4.1 Approval/disapproval of military attack on Iraq,
September 2002–April 2003 106
4.2 Approval/disapproval of Britain’s involvement in
war with Iraq, March–October 2003 107
4.3 Who approved the Iraq War, March–April 2003 108
4.4 Britain has a strong moral case for war with Iraq,
March–October 2003 111
4.5 Britain will benefit in the long run from war with Iraq,
March–October 2003 113
4.6 National and personal costs of war with Iraq,
March–October 2003 114
4.7 Effects of significant predictors in composite model of
probability of approving war with Iraq 126
4.8 Dynamics of opinions towards war with Iraq by
gender, March–October 2003 127
4.9 Military action against Iraq right or wrong?
March 2003–June 2007 131
4.10 Approval of the war against Iraq,
April 2004–June 2007 132
4.11 Rating the success of the war against Iraq,
April 2004–June 2007 133
4.12 Tony Blair’s prime ministerial approval ratings,
June 1997–June 2007 134
4.13 Balance of Blair’s approval–disapproval ratings
and cumulative civilian casualties in Iraq,
June 1997–December 2005 134
4.14 Conditional variance in balance of Blair’s approval
and disapproval ratings, July 1997–December 2005 138
5.1 Economic evaluations, 2005 145
5.2 Direction of party identification, 2001 and 2005 147
5.3 Government performance evaluations, 2005 148
5.4 Anticipated Conservative performance, 2005 149
5.5 Positive and negative emotional reactions to economy,
National Health Service and Iraq War 151
5.6 Party best able to handle most important issue,
2001 and 2005 155
5.7 Feelings about party leaders, 2001 and 2005 159
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viii List of figures

5.8 Average issue-proximity distances between

voters and parties, 2005 161
5.9 Effects of predictor variables on probability of
voting Labour, composite voting model 169
5.10 Changes in probability of Labour vote associated
with changes in feelings about Tony Blair,
selected effects 171
5.11 Effects of predictor variables on probability of voting
Conservative, composite voting model 172
5.12 Effects of predictor variables on probability of
voting Liberal Democrat, composite voting model 173
5.13 Example of a log-normal distribution where
ln(X) is ~N(1,1) 179
5.14 Sense of civic duty by age group, 2005 185
6.1 Dynamics of vote intentions during the 2005
general election campaign 196
6.2 Percentages of respondents with maximum probability
of voting, 2005 BES rolling campaign panel survey 199
6.3 Percentages of respondents ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’
interested in election, 2005 BES rolling campaign
panel survey 200
6.4 Feelings about party leaders, 2005 BES rolling
campaign panel survey 201
6.5 Party campaign performance index, 2005 BES rolling
campaign panel survey 202
6.6 Leader campaign performance index, 2005 BES rolling
campaign panel survey 204
6.7 Relationship between three-party constituency-level
campaign spending and marginality, 2005
general election 205
6.8 Percentages of voters contacted by parties’ local
campaigns in 2005 general election 208
6.9 Timing of vote decision, 2001 and 2005
general elections 210
6.10 Exposure to party political broadcasts during the
2005 election campaign 222
7.1 Likelihood of participating in a protest, rally or
demonstration, Britain 2005 233
List of figures ix

7.2 Likelihood of voting in next general election,

protesting or volunteering, Britain,
April 2004–December 2007 240
7.3 Strength of party identification in Britain,
April 2004–December 2007 241
7.4 Trend in strength of party identification in
Britain, 1964–2005 242
7.5 Selected political activities in twenty-one
European democracies, 2002 251
7.6 Structure of political participation in Britain, 2002 260
7.7 Structure of political participation in European
democracies excluding Britain, 2002 261
7.8 Ratios of voting to boycotting and buycotting in
European democracies, 2002 265
7.9 Mean number of nonvoting political activities by
GDP per capita, twenty-one European
democracies, 2002 268
8.1 Perceived personal political influence, 2005 275
8.2 Sense of civic duty, 1996–2005 national surveys 276
8.3 Three measures of sense of civic duty, 2005 277
8.4 Trust in political institutions, 2005 279
8.5 Evaluations of the party system, 2005 279
8.6 Evaluations of elections, 2005 280
8.7 Satisfaction with democracy in Britain, 2001 and 2005 281
8.8 Pathways to political orientations 282
8.9 Sense of personal responsibility, 2005 292
8.10 Social trust, 2005 293
9.1 The dynamics of party support,
April 2004–May 2008 315
9.2 The dynamics of Gordon Brown’s image,
July 2007–May 2008 316
9.3 The dynamics of Labour support and Labour leader as
best prime minister, April 2004–May 2008317
A.1 Observed dynamics of party identification,
British panel surveys328
A.2 Mover groups in mixed Markov latent class analyses
of the dynamics of party identification in British
panel surveys329
Tables

3.1 Time series regression analyses of the dynamics of

the security issue agenda, January 1985–May 2005 66
3.2 Average scores on increased taxes and services
versus reduced taxes and services scales, 2001–5 68
3.3 Time series regression analyses of the dynamics of
labour support, July 1997–May 2005 75
3.4 Logistic regression analyses of Labour, Conservative and
Liberal Democrat support, July 2000 to April 2005 80
3.5 Exploratory factor analysis of evaluations of and emotional
reactions to six policy objects 84
3.6 Logistic regression analyses of Labour, Conservative and
Liberal Democrat support, April 2004 to April 2005 87
3.7 Experiences of and satisfaction with medical
treatment, crime, measures to combat terrorism, asylum
seekers/immigrants, April 2004 to April 2005 90
3.8 Over-time variations in experience satisfaction by
policy area, April 2004 to April 2005 91
3.9 Regional variations in experience satisfaction by
policy area, April 2004 to April 2005 92
3.10 Correlations between experience satisfaction and
evaluation and emotional reaction scores, April 2004
to April 2005 93
3.11 Effects of services satisfaction and security satisfaction
on Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote
intentions, April 2004 to April 2005 94
3.12 Regression analyses of public services evaluations/
emotions and security evaluations/emotions,
April 2004 to April 2005 97
3.13 Regression analyses of the importance of public services
and security as issues, April 2004 to April 2005100
4.1    Ordered probit analyses of attitudes towards the war
in Iraq, March and April–May 2003 surveys 118
x
List of tables xi

4.2 Encompassing tests of rival ordered probit models of

attitudes towards the war in Iraq, March and
April–May 2003 surveys 122
4.3 Composite ordered probit model of attitudes towards
the war in Iraq, March and April–May 2003 surveys 124
4.4 Gender differences in attitudes towards war with Iraq,
March–October 2003 129
4.5 Time series regression analysis of the dynamics of the
balance of Tony Blair’s approval and disapproval ratings,
July 1997–December 2005 137
4.6 Regression analysis of factors affecting feelings about
Tony Blair at time of 2005 general election140
5.1 Most important issue in 2005 general election and party
best able to handle it 154
5.2 Party leader images, 2005 157
5.3 Rival models of electoral choice in the 2005
general election 165
5.4 Binomial and multinomial logit analyses of voting in the
2005 general election, composite specification 166
5.5 Mixed logit model of party choice in the 2005
general election 177
5.6 Summary of mixed logit models of party choice, with
political sophistication effects on the impact of feelings
about party leaders 180
5.7 Binomial logistic regression analysis of composite
model of turnout in the 2005 general election 184
5.8 Parameters for selected predictors in unified
model of electoral choice 188
6.1 Correlations between seat marginality and party
spending by constituency battlegrounds in 2005 206
6.2 Exposure to local campaigning in 2005
general election 209
6.3 Pre-campaign vote intentions and voting behaviour
in 2005 (vertical percentages) 211
6.4 Multilevel binomial logistic regression analyses of
turnout in the 2005 general election 214
6.5 Multilevel binomial logistic regression analyses of
Labour voting in the 2005 general election 217
6.6 Multilevel binomial logistic regression analyses of
Conservative voting in the 2005 general election 218
xii List of tables

6.7 Multilevel binomial logistic regression analyses of

Liberal Democrat voting in the 2005 general election 220
6.8 Multilevel regression analyses of the probability of
voting in the 2005 general election 225
6.9 Binomial logistic regression analyses of Labour
vote intentions over the official campaign 227
6.10 Binomial logistic regression analyses of Conservative
vote intentions over the official campaign 228
6.11 Binomial logistic regression analyses of Liberal
Democrat vote intentions over the official campaign229
7.1 Likelihood of engaging in various forms of political
participation 234
7.2 Trends in political participation in Britain, 1981 to 2005 236
7.3 Trends in various forms of political participation by age
cohort, 1981 to 2005 237
7.4 Multilevel regression analyses of political participation
in Britain, April 2004 to December 2007 247
7.5 Multilevel binomial logistic regression analyses of
political participation in European democracies 253
7.6 Aggregate-level predictors of political participation in
European democracies 258
7.7 The structure of political participation in Britain and
other European democracies, inter-factor correlations 263
7.8 Correlations between boycotting, buycotting
and turnout by age group in twenty-one
European democracies, 2002 264
7.9 Regression analyses of aggregate-level boycotting and
buycotting, twenty-one European democracies 267
7.10 Regression analyses of average levels of engagement in
various forms of political participation, twenty-one
European democracies269
8.1 Interest in politics, Britain 2005 274
8.2 Exploratory factor analysis of dimensions of valence
assessments 284
8.3 Exploratory factor analysis of dimensions of
ideology/values 288
8.4 Regression analyses of individual political orientations296
8.5 OLS and ordered logistic regression analyses of
system-level political orientations300
Acknowledgments

National election studies long have been major infrastructure projects

in political science. The British Election Study (BES) has been con-
ducted at the time of every general election since 1964. Starting in
2001, we have been privileged to be BES principal investigators. The
core analyses in Performance Politics and the British Voter are based
on survey data gathered in the 2005 study. When conducting the BES
and related projects, we have benefited from the advice and assistance
of a large number of organizations and individuals. We are pleased to
have this opportunity to acknowledge their help.
First is the Economic and Social Research Council (the ESRC). The
ESRC funded both the 2001 and 2005 BES, as well as the Dynamics
of Democracy surveys conducted in Paul Whiteley’s Participation and
Democracy programme. The latter surveys provided us with monthly
portraits of British public opinion between January 2000 and
December 2002. The ESRC also funded national surveys in March,
April–May and October 2003 to gather information on the dynamics
of British public opinion about the Iraq War early in the history of
that controversial conflict. We particularly appreciate the interest in
our research expressed by ESRC officers, Gary Williams and Jennifer
Edwards. Gary’s enthusiasm for, and advocacy of, the BES has done
much to invigorate research on voting, elections and public opinion
in Britain.
Thanks are due also to Sam Younger and the UK Electoral
Commission. The Commission helped to fund the 2005 study.
These funds enabled us to include extra question batteries, and to
expand the Scottish and Welsh booster samples. In addition, we
thank BBC Newsnight and other media outlets for providing Sanders
and Whiteley with opportunities to discuss the 2005 election with
national and regional audiences. These opportunities helped us to dis-
seminate information about BES findings to a large public audience
in a timely way.

xiii
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