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Trace Metals and other Contaminants in the Environment 8

Series Editor: Jerome O. Nriagu

Department of Environmental and Industrial Health
School of Public Health
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2029
USA

Other volumes in this series:

Volume 1:
1: Heavy Metals in the Environment, edited by J.P. Vernet
Volume 2: Impact of Heavy Metals on the Environment, edited
by J.-P. Vernet
Volume 3: Photocatalytic Purification
Purification and Treatment of Water and Air,
edited by D.F.
B.Ma Ollis
rkert and H.
K. Al-Ekabi
Friese
Volume 4: Trace Elements –- Their Distribution and Effects
Effects in
the Environment, edited by B. Markert and K. Friese
Volume 5: Metals, Metalloids and Radionuclides in the Baltic Sea
Ecosystem, P. Szefer
Szefer
Volume 6: Bioindicators and Biomonitors: Principles, Concepts
and Applications, edited by B.A. Markert, A.M. Breure
and H.G. Zechmeister
Volume 7: Long-term Performance
Performance of Permeable Reactive Barriers, edited
by K.E. Roehl, T. Meggyes, F.-G. Simon and D.I. Stewart
Trace Metals and other Contaminants in the Environment 8

Hazardous Substances and Human Health

Exposure, Impact and External Cost Assessment
at the European Scale

Till M. Bachmann
University of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the
Rational Use of Energy (IER)
Stuttgart, Germany

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In memory of my beloved mother
who died from pancreas cancer in November 2004.
This Page is Intentionally Left Blank
 Preface

There is widespread public concern about hazardous chemicals that are contained
in air, soil, water and food which is supported by scientific evidence, however, not
as encompassing. Policy has therefore adopted a series of laws and regulations
with regard to the emissions into and concentration levels in different media in-
cluding food. As policy makers do not only have to consider the protection of the
environment but also need to ensure a well-functioning economy at the same
time, these limit or target values need to be set in a balanced way. The main prob-
lem, however, is to compare or rather optimize the different costs for achieving
these targets with the benefits to society by having a smaller exposure to hazard-
ous substances. According to neoclassical welfare economics theory, the optimal
pollution level is found when the costs of the last implemented measure that just
leads to the achievement of an environmental state (e.g., by implementing emis-
sion abatement techniques such as filters) are equal to the incremental increase in
welfare (e.g., a better health status) valued in monetary terms. The assessment of
the increases in welfare expressed in monetary values is associated with a rather
high degree of uncertainty. This is due to the fact that not all aspects of environ-
mental pollution can at present be valued (e.g., biodiversity loss) and due to the
uncertainties in the employed model-based assessments involving information on
emissions, description of the environmental fate of substances, behavioural pat-
terns of people, effect models and their valuation approaches. As a result, current
cost-benefit analyses are conducted in a way that they are complemented by qual-
itative aspects to a greater or lesser extent. It needs to be noted, however, that even
in such cases in which the knowledge base is more reliable the target setting proc-
ess in the end is primarily driven by political constraints and the outcome of com-
plex international negotiations, rather than robust scientific evidence.
This book sets out to improve the reliability of cost-benefit analyses partic-
ularly of hazardous substances present in air, water, soil and food. It suggests that
the human health risk assessment of chemicals is performed in a bottom-up anal-
ysis that is based on a spatially resolved multimedia modelling approach. In order
viii Preface

to allow for cost-benefit analyses to be conducted, this approach is accompanied

by monetary valuation of human health impacts.

Till M. Bachmann
University of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Stuttgart, Germany

September 2005
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 Acknowledgements

Any research conducted nowadays is marked by a high level of collaboration,

even more so, when working in an interdisciplinary area of research. Hence, the
work described in this book would have been impossible without the invaluable
contributions, inspirations and comments of several colleagues. I would like to
express my gratitude to the partners working in the EC-funded research project
OMNIITOX for their excellent cooperation which has inspired me in developing
the environmental fate, exposure and impact assessment model. In this respect, I
especially feel grateful for fruitful discussions with Dr. David W. Pennington who
also contributed to outlining Table 2-3.
In addition to that, I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr.-Ing. Rainer
Friedrich and Dr. Olivier Jolliet, as the work described here would have not been
possible without their fair comments and experience.
Special thanks go to my colleagues at the Institute of Energy Economics
and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Germany, for offering
helpful comments and providing support especially with respect to database, Ge-
ographic Information System (GIS) and programming skills. I am particularly
grateful for the implementation of trace elements into the software tool EcoSense
and the provision of the respective deposition fields by my colleague Dr.-Ing. Bert
Droste-Franke.
Furthermore, the developed approach relies on many data. I want to express
my gratitude for all those data that are freely distributed especially when they
have already been financed by the public (i.e., through taxes) as is regularly the
case in the US. I also gratefully acknowledge the provision of global hydrological
and lake data by the Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of
Kassel, Germany.
The financial support of the European Commission through the "Energy,
environment and sustainable development" programme given to the NewExt
(New elements for the assessment of external costs from energy technologies, EC
Project number: ENG1-2000-00129) and GREENSENSE projects (An applied
x Acknowledgements

integrated environmental impact assessment framework for the European union,

EC Project number: EVG1-2000-00022) as well as through the "Sustainable and
Competitive Growth" research programme given to the OMNIITOX-project (Op-
erational Models aNd Information tools for Industrial applications of eco/TOXi-
cological impact assessments, EC Project number: G1RD-CT-2001-00501) is
also acknowledged. The realisation of this work would not have been accom-
plished without this external funding. In addition, I would like to thank the foun-
dation Stiftung Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg: nature and the environment for
awarding a grant to this work.
And last but - for sure - not least, there is no way to adequately express my
gratitude for the patient support of my wife, Martina Bachmann, who encouraged
me to pursue my goals and, thus, has a considerable share in the realisation of this
book. Also the birth of my two daughters, Lea and Mara, during the development
of this work has been very inspiring and brought new perspectives and a so far
unexperienced kind of happiness into my life.
 Zusammenfassung

Die von der Europaischen Kommission gefbrderte Projektreihe 'ExtemE' be-

schaftigt sich mit der Quantiflzierung der durch Energiewandlungssysteme verur-
sachten externen Kosten. Dabei wurden Expositionen und daraus folgende
Schaden durch Schadstoffe, die in groBeren Mengen in die Luft emittiert werden,
abgeschatzt und bewertet. Es wird dem sogenannten Wirkungspfadansatz gefolgt,
der durch die vorliegende Arbeit urn Expositionen erweitert wurde, die iiber Bo-
den und Wasser stattfinden. Diese Erweiterung wurde in Form eines Softwarepro-
gramms mit Namen WATSON ('integrated WATer and SOil environmental fate,
exposure and impact assessment model of Noxious substances') implementiert,
das raumlich aufgelost die Exposition gegenuber Schadstoffen durch Nahrungs-
aufhahme innerhalb Europas abscMtzt.
Der AbscMtzung der Exposition liegt eine Kopplung von Chemie-Trans-
port-Modellen fur Luft einerseits und Boden und Wasser andererseits zu Grunde.
Dabei wurde fur die AbscMtzung im Bereich Luft auf das bestehende Software-
programm EcoSense zuruckgegriffen (European Commission, 2003d), wahrend
das environmental fate im Boden und Wasser mit Hilfe eines neu entwickelten,
raumlich aufgelosten Boxmodells abgeschatzt wird, das als Mackay-Modell
level III/IV (Mackay, 1991) klassifiziert werden kann. Die beiden Chemie-Trans-
port-Modelle unterscheiden sich nicht nur hinsiehtlieh der betrachteten Medien,
sondern auch beziiglich der raumlichen Auflosung: das Luftmodell basiert auf ei-
nem regelmaBigen Gitter, das Boden-Wasser-Modell ist raumlich differenziert
gemaB Einzugsgebietsinformationen. Beide^ate Modelle verwenden Parameter-
werte zur Beschreibung der Umwelt, die auf mehrjahrigen Mittelwerten beruhen,
und konnen somit als klimatologische Modelle bezeichnet werden. Das Chemie-
Transport-Modell fur Boden und Wasser weist weitere Besonderheiten auf. Dabei
sind die raumliche Differenzierung von Kompartimenten, die pH-Abhangigkeit
des Verteilungsverhaltens von Spurenelementen und verbesserte oder neue Pro-
zesse wie bevorzugtes FlieBen (preferentialflow), Ernteentzug, Bodenerosion in
Abhangigkeit von der Landnutzung und Unterscheidung von Flussen und Seen zu
xii Zusammenfassung

nennen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit konnte gezeigt werden, dass diese Besonder-
heiten einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die menschliche Exposition haben.
Basierend auf den abgeschatzten Konzentrationen in der Umwelt erfolgt
die Expositionsabschatzung, die fiir die Nahrungsaufnahme (Ingestion) komple-
xer ist als fur die Exposition uber die Atemwege (Inhalation). Dies ist darauf zu-
ruckzufuhren, dass der Mensch eine Vielfalt an unterschiedlichen Lebensmitteln
zu sieh nimmt, deren landwirtschaftliche oder gewasserbezogene Produktion zu-
dem raumlich verteilt ist. Die Expositionsabschatzung gegeniiber Nahrungsmit-
teln basiert auf einem ortsabhangigen Ansatz zur Risikoabschatzung, der von der
US-amerikanischen Umweltschutzbehorde fiir Sondermiillverbrennungsanlagen
empfohlen wird (United States - Environmental Protection Agency, 1998), wobei
versucht wird, keine Vorsorge-, sondern representative Werte zu ermitteln. Die
Expositionsabschatzung erfolgt auf der Ebene administrativer Einheiten, so dass
der Verfugbarkeit von Nahrungs- und Bevolkerungsdaten Rechnung getragen
wird. Handel wird als weiterer Bestandteil des environmental fate der Schadstoffe
betrachtet. Es wird angenommen, dass er zu einer VergleichmaBigung der Schad-
stoffkonzentrationen in den jeweiligen kommerziellen Nahrungs- und Futtermit-
teln innerhalb der geographischen Grenzen des Modells fuhrt, bevor es zur
Exposition von Mensch und Nutztier kommt. Als MaB fiir die aggregierte Expo-
sition gegeniiber Schadstoffen wird das Konzept des aufgenommenen Anteils der
emittierten Menge einer Substanz genommen ('Intake Fraction', Bennett et al.,
2002). Dadurch dass sehr untersehiedliche Zeitraume bei der Exposition iiber die
Atemwege und iiber die Nahrung relevant sind, insbesondere wenn Pulsemissi-
onsszenarien untersucht werden, wird die Intake Fraction getrennt nach Inhalati-
on und Ingestion sowie fur untersehiedliche Zeitspannen ausgewiesen. Eine
weitere Neuerung besteht darin, dass die Intake Fraction nur die Schadstoffspe-
zies beriicksichtigt, die auch zur schadlichen Wirkung beitragen, weshalb von ei-
ner effective Intake Fraction gesprochen wird.
Zur vollstandigen Verfolgung der Wirkungspfadanalyse mangelt es insbe-
sondere an Informationen iiber Effekte durch die Nahrungsexposition, die anhand
epidemiologischer Studien abgeleitet wurden. Daher erfolgt die Schadensab-
schiitzung mit Hilfe des PEDW slope factor-Ansalzes (Crettaz, 2000), der mit dem
Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)-Konzept kombiniert wird, das auch von
der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) in Gesundheitsstatistiken verwendet
wird. Da die DALYs Gesundheitsschaden durch Erkrankungen und vorzeitige
Todesfalle in Aquivalenten von verlorenen Lebensjahren ('Years Of Life Lost',
YOLLs) ausdriicken und aggregieren, kann eine monetare Bewertung gemaB dem
Standardansatz der ExternE-Projekte erfolgen. Als Schwachpunkt der publizier-
ten und hier verwendeten DALY-Werte werden insbesondere die Gewichte fiir
Gesundheitsbeeintrachtigungen gesehen, die Krankheitszeiten in Aquivalente an
verlorenen Lebensjahren umwandeln.
Zitsammenfassung xiii

Im Einklang mit der politischen Schwerpunktsetzung bezuglich Schad-

stoffTiberwachung und -regulierung fokussiert sich die vorgestellte Analyse auf
persistente Schadstoffe und insbesondere auf Schwermetalle. Im Einzelnen wer-
den die Spurenelement Arsen, Cadmium, Chrom und Blei untersucht. Das entwi-
ckelte Modell ist momentan beschrankt bezuglich der potenziell zu
analysierenden Schadstoffe. Entspreehend konnen nur Schadstoffe untersucht
werden, die praktisch nicht volatil, d. h. aufgrund ihres Dampfdrucks nicht fliich-
tig sind. Zudem treten Schwermetalle (oder besser Spurenelemente) in verschie-
denen Bindungsformen auf, die in unterschiedliehem MaBe bioverfugbar und
toxisch sind. Dem wird insofern Rechnung getragen, als das Verteilungsverhalten
in Abhangigkeit vom pH-Wert modelliert und das ExpositionsmaB effektiv ermit-
telt wird {'effective Intake Fraction', siehe oben). Ein Vergleich mit gemessenen
Werten fur Boden, Wasser und Nahrungsmittel hat ergeben, dass die in dieser
Studie abgeschatzten Konzentrationen innerhalb der Erwartungswerte liegen.
Szenarioberechnungen wurden fur Luft-Emissionen sowohl einzelner
Kohlekraftwerke als auch auf gesamt-europaischer Ebene durchgefiihrt. In alien
Fallen zeigte es sich, dass die menschliche Exposition iiber den Nahrungsweg ge-
geniiber Ein-Jahres-Puls-Emissionen nicht nur langsam mit der Zeit ansteigt, son-
dern auch eine Verschiebung in der Bedeutung der Nahrungsmittel im Zeitverlauf
stattfmdet. Im Fall von Arsen war kurzfristig eine Mischung aus Getreide und
Milchprodukten zu etwa 70 % fur die Nahrungsmittelexposition verantwortlich,
wahrend langfristig die Milchprodukte allein 80 % ausmachten. Die Beitrag der
Exposition iiber die Atemwege ist gegeniiber der der Nahrungsaufhahme margi-
nal und bestatigt Ergebnisse fur Cadmium und Arsen (European Commission,
2000b). Der Vergleich der Kraftwerksstandorte ergab, dass die Variability der
Exposition und der Schaden iiber den Nahrungspfad ahnlich groB ist wie iiber die
Atemwege trotz des vergleichmaBigenden Effekts des Handels auf die Schad-
stoffkonzentrationen in den Nahrungsmitteln. Dieser Effekt des Handels lasst
demnach die Standortunterschiede nicht in dem MaBe verschwinden, wie es spe-
ziell von Spadaro und Rabl (2004) postuliert worden ist.
Die fur die untersuchten Spurenelemente ermittelten Schadensfaktoren
wurden mit denen fiir die klassischen Luftschadstoffe verglichen. Der Vergleich
fur Expositionen iiber die Atemwege ergab, dass die quantifizierbaren externen
Kosten durch die gesamt-europaischen Emissionen der Spurenelemente in die
Luft im Jahr 1990 vernachlassigbar klein gegeniiber den durch SO2, NOX, NH 3 ,
Primarpartikeln und NMVOCs verursachten Schaden sind. Der Unterschied be-
tragt vier GroBenordnungen. Anders sieht es bei Expositionen gegeniiber den
Spurenelementen iiber die Nahrungswege aus. Diese konnen bis zu mehr als 10 %
der durch die klassischen Luftschadstoffe verursachten gesamten quantifizierba-
ren externen Kosten ausmachen, wenn mit 0 % diskontiert wird. Diesbeziiglich
xiv Zusammenfassung

tragen vor allem die nicht-krebsbezogenen Effekte durch Blei bei, die zu einer Er-
hohung des Blutdrucks fuhren. Allerdings hangt dieser Beitrag sehr stark von der
Wahl der Diskontrate ab. Fur den Fall, dass eine positive Diskontrate angenom-
men wird, werden die Schadensfaktoren fiir die Nahrungsaufnahme betrachtlich
kleiner. Dies ist insbesondere auf die Persistenz der betrachteten Schadstoffe zu-
ruckzufuhren (vgl. Hellweg, 2000; van den Bergh et al., 2000; Huijbregts et al,
2001; de Vries et al., 2004) gepaart mit ihrem vergleichsweise langsamen Aus-
breitungsverhalten. Im Falle der Spurenelemente mit langsamer Dynamik, d. h.
Arsen und Chrom, gelangen innerhalb der ersten 100 Jahre nach einer Ein-Jahres-
Puls-Emission weniger als 2 % der potenziell zur Exposition beitragenden Menge
uber die Nahrung zum Menschen gemaB den hier vorgenommenen Abschatzun-
gen. Somit sind die menschlichen Expositionen iiber Boden und Wasser generell
dann besonders bedeutsam, wenn mittel- bis langfristige Zeitraume betrachtet
werden. Diese Expositionen sind daher im besonderen MaBe relevant beziiglich
einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung und dabei insbesondere hinsichtlich der interge-
nerationellen Gerechtigkeit.
Der abgeschatzte geringe Beitrag der durch Spurenelemente verursachten
quantifizierbaren externen Kosten zu den insgesamt quantifizierten externen Kos-
ten durch die klassischen Luftschadstoffe konnte zuvor auch fur Expositionen
iiber die Nahrungsaufnahme von Dioxinen und Substanzen mit ahnlicher Wir-
kung (v. a. PCBs) fur einzelne Lander gezeigt werden (Droste-Franke et al.,
2003). Allerdings ist dabei zu beriicksichtigen, dass die Anzahl der durch die vor-
liegende Arbeit zusatzlich bewertbaren Schadstoffe klein ist im Vergleich zu de-
nen, die potenziell noch in Betracht zu ziehen sind. Ihr Beitrag zu den
quantifizierbaren externen Kosten konnte erheblich sein. Dabei wird als haupt-
sachlich limitierender Faktor die Verfiigbarkeit von Dosis-Wirkungsbeziehungen
gesehen. Um zusatzlich noch solche Substanzen methodisch zu erfassen, fiir die
Dosis-Wirkungsbeziehungen bekannt sind (wie etwa Quecksilber und Dioxine),
bedarf es einer Weiterentwicklung des dargestellten methodischen Ansatzes. Zu
nennen sind vor allem der betrachtete geographische Raum, der zumindest auf die
Nordhemisphare, wenn nicht sogar auf die ganze Erde erweitert werden miisste,
und die vollstandige Integration der Medien Luft, Boden und Wasser in einem
Chemie-Transport-Modell.
Der verfolgte Ansatz stellt einen Mittelweg dar zwischen dem ambitionier-
ten Ziel, Spurenelementkontaminationen raumlich aufgelost auf europaischer
Ebene zu erfassen, einerseits und der Modellierung dieser Substanzen gemaB dem
aktuellen Kenntnisstand auf kleinerer Ebene andererseits. Die vorliegende Arbeit
leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Verbesserung der Wissensbasis hinsichtlich
der GroBenordnung der (durch den Menschen verursachten) Gesundheitsschaden
und externen Kosten, da bisher insbesondere hinsichtlich der externen Kosten
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