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Kellogg on Technology and Innovation 1st Edition Ranjay
Gulati Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Ranjay Gulati, Mohanbir Sawhney, Anthony Paoni
ISBN(s): 9780471273080, 0471273082
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 1.93 MB
Year: 2002
Language: english
Kellogg on
Technology
& Innovation

EDITED BY
RANJAY GUL ATI
MOHANBIR SAWHNEY
AND ANTHONY PAONI

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Kellogg on
Technology
& Innovation
Kellogg on
Technology
& Innovation

EDITED BY
RANJAY GUL ATI
MOHANBIR SAWHNEY
AND ANTHONY PAONI

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 by Ranjay Gulati, Mohanbir Sawhney, and Anthony Paoni. All
rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of
the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of
the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to
the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923,
(978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests
to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax
(201) 748-6008, e-mail: [email protected].
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used
their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties
with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and
specif ically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or f itness for a
particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives
or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be
suitable for your situation. The publisher is not engaged in rendering professional
services, and you should consult a professional where appropriate. Neither the
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damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other
damages.
For general information on our other products and services please contact our
Customer Care Department within the U.S. at (800) 762-2974, outside the United
States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002.
Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that
appears in print may not be available in electronic books.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Gulati, Ranjay.
Kellogg on technology & innovation / Ranjay Gulati, Mohanbir Sawhney,
Anthony Paoni.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-471-23592-X (alk. Paper)
1. Technological innovations—Economic aspects. I. Title: Kellogg on
technology and innovation. II. J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of
Management. III. Sawhney, Mohanbir S. IV. Paoni, Anthony. V. Title.
HC79.T4 G85 2002
338′.064—dc21
2002011427
Printed in the United States of America.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 To Donald P. Jacobs, Dean Emeritus
of the Kellogg School of Management,
who served as Dean from 1975 to 2001.
Dean Jacobs fostered a culture of collaboration,
teamwork, and entrepreneurship.
Without his support for our TechVenture course,
this book would not have been possible.
 Contents

Preface ix

Section I
Enabling Technologies
and Infrastructure
Chapter 1
The Future of Semiconductor Technology 3
Hagai Bar-Lev, Paul W. F. Rutten, Avner M. I. Sonnino, and
Michal Tauman
Chapter 2
Optical Networking 38
Mike Doheny, Jennifer Ann Glaspie, B. Jason Koval,
Nicholas L. Leeming, and Eric M. Smyth
Chapter 3
The Wireless Value Chain and Infrastructure 79
Jennifer L. Eselius, Deepak Garg, Greg Hughes, Jef f Kelly,
Ian R. Lacy, Daniel A. Levine, Nelson Francisco Molina,
Manish Panjwani, Donaldson C. Pillsbury, Andrew I. Quarles,
Charity C. C. Rivera, Tom Stokes, Shyam V. P. Sharma,
Lori S. Tabuchi, Christopher Thun, Karthik Vasudevan,
Vivian Yang, and Rich Yeh

Section II
Business Models and Markets
Chapter 4
Interactive Television 155
Marc P. Adams, Parul Anand, and Sebastien M. Fox

vii
viii Contents

Chapter 5
Wireless Applications 193
Albert V. Fratini, Deepak Garg, Daniel C. Grace, Esteban
Greenberg, Christina N. Goletz, Jonathon D. Lewis,
Laura J. Lewis, James E. Lutz, Rodrigo Manzano, Armoghan
Mohammed, Evan M. Norton, Ian M. Norton, Manish Panjwani,
Daniel B. Rosenbloom, Lisa S. Roth, Shyam V. P. Sharma,
Sonia A. De La Torre, Karthik Vasudevan, and Rich Yeh

Section III
Emerging Technologies
Chapter 6
Recent Trends in Nanotechnology 261
Puneet Gupta, Rajit Malhotra, Michael A. Segal, and
Marc Y. F. J. Verhaeren
Chapter 7
Peer-to-Peer Computing 284
Alanso Quintana, Jayesh Ramsinghani, and Timothy Walls
Chapter 8
A Framework for the Biotechnology Industry 312
Katie Arnold, Thomas H. Fuchs, Scott T. Saywell,
Wallace Saunders, and David M. Scalzo

Index 343
 Preface

Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.

—Thomas Edison

E dison reminds us that successful in-

novation requires more than just a good idea. Given the current state of
the technology sector in 2002, which has witnessed dramatic drops in stock
prices, tens of thousands of layoffs, and the demise of many start-ups, Edi-
son’s quote seems particularly relevant. After all, couldn’t we argue that
many technology companies started out with good ideas and have been
working hard? Perhaps they were working hard, but not necessarily work-
ing smart. Or perhaps some good old-fashioned luck is needed in addition
to inspiration and perspiration, given the rapidly changing market and busi-
ness conditions. Or maybe there were just too many players competing for
the same pie.
All of these observations have some truth. Early in the development of
an industry, more inspiration may be required. While for mature indus-
tries, more perspiration may be required. Regardless, successful business
practice is about positioning a company well to beat the odds and exe-
cuting relentlessly to capitalize on the position. To create positions of ad-
vantage, business decision makers need information that can help them
understand the trends in their markets so they can place their strategic
bets intelligently.
The past decade has witnessed unprecedented advances across a variety
of technological frontiers. The pace of change is compounded by the con-
vergence of some of these frontiers. Many promises have been made about

ix
x Preface

the value creation potential of some of these developments, only to fizzle

out later on. The list is long—e-retailing, business-to-business market-
places, satellite phones, HDTV, wireless data, optical networking, ge-
nomics, broadband, third-generation wireless technology, interactive TV,
home networking, and so on. Skeptics have looked back and pointed to a
pattern of hype surrounding new technological developments and have
become dismissive of any new claims because of their poor track record.
We believe that at least part of the reason we see this “boom-and-bust”
pendulum in technology industries is because much of the early discus-
sion of new technologies is about the technical merits of the new tech-
nologies. Very seldom does the discussion focus on the business value of
the technology and the business models that need to be developed to cap-
ture value from the technology. Too often, business-model and customer-
value-proposition discussions are conducted as a postmortem, when entire
technology sectors f lame out, and journalists and academics build retro-
spective accounts of why things did not turn out the way people thought
they would. Unless we change the nature of the conversation about new
technologies, we may not be able to break free from this vicious cycle.

The Purpose of This Book

This book is an attempt to view emerging frontiers in technology through
the clear lenses of business instead of the rose-tinted glasses of technolo-
gists. Our goal is to help managers and investors gain an intelligent un-
derstanding of some of the most-promising new technologies and develop
an informed opinion of the business prospects of these technologies. In
discussing a technology frontier, we provide enough details for the reader
to develop strategic f luency with the technology, and then we quickly turn
to the business challenges in commercializing it. We also present likely al-
ternative scenarios that paint a picture of how the markets for each tech-
nology might develop and identify some of the key players and plays that
are likely to capture a dominant role in each domain. The primary audi-
ence for this book is managers who are intrigued by these exciting fron-
tiers and have a feeling that some of these developments will have an
impact on their industries but are not sure how. Given our business-
focused stance, this book makes no attempt to provide complete coverage
of the various technologies. Technology is discussed only as necessary to
understand the key drivers and trends in the industries. Our main focus is
to help the reader in understanding the value chains in these industries, the
business impact of technological innovations, the competitive landscape in
 Preface xi

the industries, and the battle for standards and control of value-capture
points in these arenas.

How This Book Was Written

This book is the outcome of a unique collaborative effort that is the hall-
mark of the Kellogg culture. The insight that motivated it is simple, yet
powerful: Students don’t merely consume knowledge, they co-create knowl-
edge. As Kellogg faculty charged with the impossible task of keeping pace
with developments across the diverse frontiers of technology, we quickly
realized that this was a task we could not do justice to by ourselves. Instead,
we harnessed the collective energies of our students. We jointly teach a
course called Kellogg TechVenture. TechVenture is an action learning course
that exposes students to the latest developments in technology, and it in-
cludes a field trip to Silicon Valley to meet with representatives of the com-
panies that are leading the charge in various technology sectors. As part of
this course, we encourage students to pick a technology frontier that ex-
cites them the most and to work with one of us to develop an insightful and
rigorously researched paper on the subject. We serve as guides and mentors
in the process, and the students do the research and writing. Students con-
duct secondary research, and every team also conducts a number of inter-
views with executives and industry experts during their f ield visit. The
collection of papers formed the raw material for this book. We selected the
best papers, designed the overall architecture for the book, reorganized the
content of the papers to create a logical f low and sequence, and edited the
papers to create chapters. This book is the final result of that process.

The Organization of This Book

Each chapter focuses on a specific technology arena or a specific set of busi-
ness models within a technology arena. All chapters begin with an intro-
duction to the technology and then survey the landscape of the sector to
highlight the forces driving the development of the sector. Each chapter
then offers conceptual and analytical frameworks that illuminate the dy-
namics within the industries. We take a forward-looking approach and at-
tempt to paint a picture of the future of these industries on the basis of
important trends and forces. The book is organized into three sections:

I. Enabling Technologies and Infrastructure. The book begins with three

chapters that familiarize readers with the key technologies that are driving
xii Preface

the evolution of the computing and communications markets: wireless net-

working, optical networking, and challenges in semiconductor development.
Chapter 1, titled “The Future of Semiconductor Technology,” analyzes
the semiconductor industry. In particular, it develops an economic analy-
sis of Moore’s law and looks not just at whether the semiconductor indus-
try will be able to keep up the trend of increasing computing power, but
also at various potential future scenarios and strategies for dealing with the
uncertainty facing the semiconductor companies.
Chapter 2, titled “Optical Networking,” covers the optical-networking
industry and how value is created and captured in the long-haul, metro, and
last-mile segments of that industry. The future prospects of the players are
examined as the industry matures.
Chapter 3, titled “The Wireless Value Chain and Infrastructure,” con-
siders the dynamics in the wireless value chain and foundations of the wire-
less infrastructure including Bluetooth and Infrared technology.

II. Business Models and Markets. In this section, the emphasis is on

the evolution of selected industries and interesting areas of emerging op-
portunity. We discuss interactive TV and wireless applictions.
Chapter 4, titled “Interactive Television,” discusses an emergent con-
sumer technology—interactive television. It places particular emphasis on
emerging business models and the complex and dynamic value chain in the
interactive TV business, which includes a look at expected industry patterns
that will change the competitive landscape and cause value to migrate in the
value chain.
Chapter 5, titled “Wireless Applications,” focuses on the future of wire-
less applications. Although the adoption of wireless phones, personal digi-
tal assistants (PDAs), and two-way pagers has been rapid, the adoption of
the wireless Internet and mobile data services in general has been less re-
markable. This chapter offers a framework for segmenting various types of
wireless applications and examines each type in detail.

III. Emerging Technologies. In the final section, we look at futuristic

technologies and nascent markets that are not yet well defined. Three of the
more-recent hot areas of technology investment, nanotechnology, peer-
to-peer computing, and biotechnology, are investigated in the next three
chapters.
Chapter 6, titled “Recent Trends in Nanotechnology,” covers future ap-
plications for nanotechnology and likely areas of success.
 Preface xiii

Chapter 7, titled “Peer-to-Peer Computing,” discusses a technology

that would benefit from the widespread availability of digital bandwidth
and the players and future prospects of various business models for this
market.
Finally, Chapter 8, titled “A Framework for the Biotechnology Industry,”
discusses the evolution and dynamics of the value chain in biotechnology and
reveals the implications for future competition and value capture.
Taken together, these chapters offer insights and frameworks that will
help the reader make sense of the confusing world of technology and the
even more confusing business prospects of the many new technologies that
are breathlessly hyped in the media. We hope that we have been able to
balance our optimism about the promise of technology to change the way
we work and live with the hard-nosed pragmatism about the ability of these
technologies to create sustainable and profitable businesses. As most read-
ers will acknowledge, there is a big gulf between a hot technology and a
profitable business. We hope this book will help you understand this gulf
and find ways of bridging it.
We would like to thank a number of individuals who helped in impor-
tant ways to complete this book. First, we would like to thank our Dean
Emeritus Donald Jacobs to whom this book is dedicated for making this
course possible. His encouragement and support for innovative courses like
this one made this book possible. Our new dean, Dipak Jain, was formerly
the associate dean. He played an instrumental role not only in the creation
of the course but also in guiding us to publish it as a book. We would also
like to thank editors Martha J. Crowe and Richard Yeh who assisted with
the careful editing and updating of the chapters included in this book. Cru-
cial administrative support in assembling all the materials together was pro-
vided by Rahi Gurung, Sarah Huffman, and James B. Oldroyd. Finally,
we would like to thank Matt Holt at Wiley & Sons, who patiently ushered
this book through the publication process.

RANJAY GULATI
MOHANBIR SAWHNEY
ANTHONY PAONI
Evanston
August 2002
Other documents randomly have
different content
 Science - Practice Problems
Second 2023 - Laboratory

Prepared by: Teaching Assistant Miller

Date: July 28, 2025

Topic 1: Interdisciplinary approaches

Learning Objective 1: Case studies and real-world applications
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 2: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Learning Objective 3: Case studies and real-world applications
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Learning Objective 4: Literature review and discussion
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Learning Objective 5: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 5: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Ethical considerations and implications
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 6: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Note: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 8: Case studies and real-world applications
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 9: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Best practices and recommendations
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Quiz 2: Best practices and recommendations
Important: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 11: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 12: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Example 12: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Case studies and real-world applications
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Research findings and conclusions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 15: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Study tips and learning strategies
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 16: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 17: Literature review and discussion
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Note: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Discussion 3: Research findings and conclusions
Important: Experimental procedures and results
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Key terms and definitions
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 23: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Note: Research findings and conclusions
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Key terms and definitions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 25: Experimental procedures and results
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Example 26: Literature review and discussion
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 28: Key terms and definitions
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Important: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Test 4: Critical analysis and evaluation
Definition: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 31: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 31: Practical applications and examples
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 32: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Historical development and evolution
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 33: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Practice Problem 34: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 35: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 35: Case studies and real-world applications
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 36: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Note: Research findings and conclusions
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Key terms and definitions
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Note: Research findings and conclusions
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Literature review and discussion
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Review 5: Ethical considerations and implications
Remember: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 42: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 42: Current trends and future directions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 43: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Example 43: Research findings and conclusions
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 44: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 46: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 46: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 47: Case studies and real-world applications
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 49: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Note: Case studies and real-world applications
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Introduction 6: Current trends and future directions
Important: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Practical applications and examples
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Key Concept: Case studies and real-world applications
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Experimental procedures and results
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Note: Literature review and discussion
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
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