A DISERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF HUMANITIES AND

SOCIAL SCIENCES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS

FOR THE AWARD OF A BACHELORS DEGREE OF SOCIAL

WORK AND SOCIAL ADMINISTRATION OF VICTORIA

UNIVERSITY UGANDA

FEBRUARY 2025

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 DECLARATION

I……………, hereby declare that the content here-in expressed and submitted to the
University of Victoria is entirely my own study and has not been submitted to any other
institution for award of a degree, diploma or certificate.

Signed..........................................................................

Date..............................................................................

YOUR NAME

Ahmed Abdikarim Elmi

VU-BPA-2209-0865-DAY

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 APPROVAL

Upon the submission of this dissertation by …….. entitled, “……….,” I hereby approve and
submit this dissertation to the academic committee of Victoria University.

Signed: ...........................................................................

Date: ...............................................................................

YOUR SUPERVISOR

(Tayebwa James Bamwenda)

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 DEDICATION

This work is dedicated to my family members and friends for their generous contribution to
the whole course.

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First, uncountable praise be to almighty Allah who created us first, gave us the necessary

requirements to live, endowed us a healthy body and mind that made us to think analytically,

and still we are dependent on him to manage any future task that we anticipate. Secondly, I

would like to thank my Supervisor, Tayebwa James Bamwenda for his exemplary guidance

and support without whose help this project would not have been a success. Thirdly, I would

like to thank my family especially my dear father and my dear Mother and i convey our

especial thank to my dear brothers and Sisters who set the foundation of our academic

background when he/she was even struggling with our survival daily bread, fourthly: i would

like to thank Victoria University (lecturers and administration) who gave us the golden

opportunity to complete our three years long first degree course in public administration

(faculty of humanities)

Table of Contents

DECLARATION ......................................................................................................... 2

SUPERVISOR APPROVAL ....................................................................................... 3

PANNEL APPROVAL ................................................................................................ 4

DEDICATION ............................................................................................................. 5

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... 6

CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................ 16

1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 16

1.1 Background of the Study .................................................................................. 16

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 1.2 Problem of Statement ....................................................................................... 18

1.3 Research Objectives ......................................................................................... 19

1.3.1 General Objectives ..................................................................................... 19

1.3.2 Specific Objectives .................................................................................... 19

1.4 Research Questions .......................................................................................... 19

1.5 Scope of The Study .......................................................................................... 20

1.5.1 Geographical Scope ................................................................................... 20

1.5.2 Time Scope ................................................................................................ 20

1.5.3 Content Scope ............................................................................................ 21

1.6 Significance of The Study ................................................................................ 21

1.7 Operational Definitions of The Study .............................................................. 21

1.8 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................... 24

CHAPTER TWO ....................................................................................................... 25

LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................... 25

1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 25

1.1 Historical Context of Somalia's Political Landscape ....................................... 25

1.2 Dynamics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Somalia .................................... 28

1.2.1 The Role of International Actors in Reconstruction in Somalia ................ 30

1.2.2 Political Fragmentation and Factionalism in Somalia ............................... 32

1.2.3 Social and Economic Dimensions of Recovery in Somalia ...................... 34

1.2.4 Comparative Analysis with Other Fragile States and Somalia .................. 35
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 1.2.5 Policy Implications and Recommendations for Somalia ........................... 38

1.3 Gaps in Current Research ................................................................................. 40

CHAPTER THREE: .................................................................................................. 43

METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 43

3.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 43

3.1 Research design ................................................................................................ 43

3.3 Population of the study ..................................................................................... 43

3.4 Study area ......................................................................................................... 44

3.5 Sample size determination ................................................................................ 44

3.6 Sampling procedure .......................................................................................... 44

3.7 Data collection instrument ................................................................................ 44

3.8 Data collection procedure ................................................................................. 45

3.9 Data analysis procedure .................................................................................... 45

3.10 Inclusion and exclusion criteria ...................................................................... 45

Inclusion Criteria ................................................................................................ 45

Exclusion Criteria ............................................................................................... 45

3. 10.1Quality control .............................................................................................. 45

Reliability............................................................................................................ 45

Validity ............................................................................................................... 46

3.10.2 Ethical consideration ................................................................................... 46

3.10.3 Limitation of the study ................................................................................ 46

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CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction
This study was be conducted to analyses the role of impact of political instability on reconstruction

process in Somalia (1992_2013. This chapter will contain background of the study, problem

statement, research objectives, research questions, scope of the study, significance of the study,

operational definitions of the study and conceptual framework.)

1.1 Background of the Study

This paper is about the impact of political instability on reconstruction processes in fragile states and

in this case Somalia, it explains the basic information about the impact of political instability on

reconstruction processes in Somalia between 1992 to 2013. The study of political instability and its

impact on the reconstruction process in Somalia between 1992 and 2013 is essential for

understanding the complex interplay between governance, security, and development in post-conflict

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societies. Following the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, Somalia entered a prolonged

period of state failure, characterized by political fragmentation, the rise of armed factions, and a lack

of central authority. The absence of a functioning government created a power vacuum that led to

intense inter-clan conflict, exacerbating Somalia's vulnerability to internal and external challenges

(Menkhaus, 2003)

From 1992 onwards, efforts to rebuild the country faced numerous obstacles, primarily due to

ongoing civil war and the fragmentation of political power. International organizations, including the

United Nations, launched peacekeeping and humanitarian missions to mitigate the effects of the

conflict and assist in reconstruction. However, these efforts often struggled against the backdrop of

warlordism, clan rivalry, and a lack of cooperation from various local actors, all of which hindered

meaningful progress (Abramowitz et al., 2012)

In the early 2000s, a series of peace agreements and transitional governments aimed at restoring order

failed to bring stability, largely because they lacked broad political legitimacy and were undermined

by continued violence and interference from neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia. The rise of the

militant group Al-Shabaab further complicated efforts, as the group capitalized on the instability to

gain territorial control and strengthen its insurgency against both the Somali government and foreign

forces (Report, 2011)

Throughout this period, Somalia’s reconstruction efforts were also undermined by the international

community's inability to formulate a coherent and sustained strategy. The focus on military

intervention and short-term relief overshadowed long-term development goals, leaving essential

sectors like education, infrastructure, and governance in a state of stagnation, Political instability

prevented the establishment of a unified national government that could effectively engage with

international actors and Somali citizens alike. As a result, the reconstruction process remained

fragmented, with varying degrees of success in different regions of the country, often dictated by the

local balance of power rather than any centralized national agenda (Luling, 1997)

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Understanding the impact of political instability on reconstruction processes is essential not only for

comprehending Somalia’s post-civil war trajectory but also for informing future interventions in

other fragile states. This study, by focusing on the specific case of Somalia between 1992 and 2013,

seeks to unpack the complex relationship between political instability and state reconstruction, with a

view toward contributing to a broader understanding of how fragile states can overcome political

challenges in their reconstruction processes.

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between political instability and the reconstruction

processes in Somalia, focusing specifically on the period between 1992 and 2013. It examines how

the political landscape—marked by shifting alliances, failed peace processes, the rise of radical

Islamist groups, and external military and humanitarian interventions—has influenced the country’s

ability to rebuild its institutions and recover from decades of conflict. By analyzing key moments in

Somalia's post-civil war history, including the rise and fall of transitional governments, the

involvement of international actors such as the United Nations and the African Union, and the

challenges posed by local actors, this study seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of how

political instability impedes state reconstruction

1.2 Problem of Statement

The reconstruction of Somalia from 1992 to 2013 serves as a critical case study for understanding the

broader implications of political instability on post-conflict recovery in fragile states. Despite

substantial international and domestic efforts aimed at rebuilding Somalia's governance structures,

economy, and social cohesion, the country has faced persistent challenges that have undermined these

initiatives. Political instability, characterized by fragmentation, factionalism, and the influence of

extremist groups, has significantly hampered the effectiveness of reconstruction efforts, leading to a

cycle of failure and limited progress.

This study seeks to address the fundamental gap in understanding how political instability has shaped

the landscape of reconstruction in Somalia. Specifically, it investigates the relationship between

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political dynamics and the success or failure of reconstruction initiatives, examining the roles of

various stakeholders involved. Additionally, the research aims to identify the key political factors that

have influenced state-building efforts and to assess the impact of internal conflicts—such as clan-

based violence and the rise of extremist groups—on the social and economic dimensions of recovery.

By elucidating these complex interactions, this study will contribute to a deeper understanding of the

challenges faced by fragile states in similar contexts, offering insights that may inform future

reconstruction strategies in Somalia and beyond. The findings will not only highlight the importance

of addressing political instability in reconstruction processes but also emphasize the need for a

comprehensive approach that considers the multifaceted nature of post-conflict recovery.

1.3 Research Objectives

1.3.1 General Objectives

The general objective of the study is to find out the impact of political stability on reconstruction

process in Somalia (1992_2013)

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

1. To analyze the relationship between political instability and the success or failure of

reconstruction initiatives, focusing on the roles played by various stakeholders in the context

of Somalia.

2. To identify and evaluate the political dynamics, including fragmentation and factionalism,

that have shaped state-building efforts and their outcomes in post-conflict Somalia.

3. To assess how internal conflicts have impacted the social fabric and economic recovery of

Somalia, particularly in relation to humanitarian aid, infrastructure development, and poverty

alleviation during the reconstruction period.

1.4 Research Questions

1. What is the relationship between political instability and the success or failure of

reconstruction initiatives, focusing on the roles played by various stakeholders in the

context of Somalia?
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 2. What is impact the political dynamics, including fragmentation and factionalism, that

have shaped state-building efforts and their outcomes in post conflict Somalia?

3. How internal conflicts have impacted the social fabric and economic recovery of

Somalia, particularly in relation to humanitarian aid, infrastructure development, and

poverty alleviation during the reconstruction period?

1.5 Scope of The Study

The scope of this study is confined to the examination of the impact of political instability on

reconstruction processes in Somalia specifically between the years 1992 and 2013. It will explore

the multifaceted dimensions of reconstruction, including governance, economic recovery, and

social cohesion, while considering the roles of various stakeholders, both international and

domestic. The research will focus on key political factors that have affected state-building

initiatives, as well as the implications of internal conflicts on the reconstruction outcomes.

Although the study will center primarily on Somalia, the findings may also draw parallels to

other fragile states facing similar challenges, thereby extending the relevance of the research

beyond its immediate geographical context. However, the analysis will not delve into pre-1992

historical factors or the long-term implications of reconstruction efforts beyond the specified

timeframe, ensuring a focused examination of the complexities surrounding Somalia's recovery

process during the defined period.

1.5.1 Geographical Scope

This research centers on Somalia, situated in the Horn of Africa, as its geographical area of interest. It

primarily investigates the country's political environment and how political stability has affected the

reconstruction efforts from 1992 to 2013.

The study emphasizes Somalia's unique geographical characteristics, particularly its long coastline

along the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, which significantly impacts its socio-political

dynamics. It also takes into account important regions and notable cities like Mogadishu, Hargeisa,

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Kismayo and Galkaio, all of which have undergone different intensities of conflict and reconstruction

initiatives.

1.5.2 Time Scope

The study will cover this information in four months that is December-February 2025

because the study will include data gathering and processing.

1.5.3 Content Scope

The research explores the connection between political instability and reconstruction initiatives in

Somalia. It looks into the impact of political instability on different areas, including governance,

infrastructure, and social services. The study utilizes quantitative approaches and also research tool

we use questionnaire that target Political commentators, Municipal employees, and Residents.

1.6 Significance of The Study

This study holds significant value for both academic and practical perspectives on post-conflict

reconstruction in fragile states. By focusing on the case of Somalia from 1992 to 2013, it aims to

shed light on the intricate relationship between political instability and reconstruction efforts,

thereby contributing to the broader discourse on state-building in contexts marked by conflict and

fragility. The findings are expected to provide insights into how political dynamics—such as

fragmentation and factionalism—can significantly influence the effectiveness of reconstruction

initiatives, informing policymakers and practitioners engaged in post-conflict recovery efforts.

Additionally, this research will highlight the importance of addressing internal conflicts,

including clan-based violence and extremist group activities, as critical factors that can either

hinder or facilitate social and economic recovery. Ultimately, by elucidating these complex

interactions, the study aspires to enhance the understanding of the challenges faced by fragile

states and offer recommendations that could improve future reconstruction strategies, not only in

Somalia but also in other similar contexts around the world.

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1.7 Operational Definitions of The Study
 Political instability refers to the condition where a government or political system

experiences frequent changes, disruptions, or uncertainties, often caused by civil unrest,

weak governance, lack of political consensus, or external influences. It can manifest as

protests, strikes, government collapses, violent conflicts, or power struggles, leading to

unpredictable governance and policy-making (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2013).

 Reconstruction may refer either to the mere rebuilding, restoring, or reconstituting something

that has been destroyed, damaged, or altered; or to the work of revisiting and reorganizing

ideas, events, or data in order to understand them more fully or better represent them (Foner,

1988).

 A fragile state is a country characterized by weak governance, limited institutional capacity,

political instability, and vulnerability to crisis. Most fragile states are unable to guarantee

basic services, uphold the rule of law, and safeguard their populations against internal or

external shocks, such as conflicts, economic collapses, and natural disasters (Rotberg, 2004).

 State-building is defined as the process of building or rebuilding a viable and durable state, in

which importance is attached to the establishment or strengthening of institutions,

governance, and the rule of law. It is a multidimensional process that aims at improving the

capacity, legitimacy, and effectiveness of the state to deliver public goods and maintain order

(Fukuyama, 2017).

 Governance entails processes, systems, and institutions through which a given society or

organization is managed, decisions are made, and implemented. This encompasses

mechanisms of power exercise, distributing authority, and ensuring accountability with the

purpose of achieving collective goals (Kaufmann et al., 2010).

 Security Sector Reform (SSR) refers to the process of transforming a country's security

institutions to make them more effective, accountable, and aligned with democratic

principles and human rights. SSR is crucial for ensuring the rule of law, protecting citizens,

and fostering stability, particularly in post-conflict or fragile states (Development, 2008).

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  Foreign intervention is a step taken by a state, group of states, or international organization

with the purpose of influencing political, economic, or social affairs of another sovereign

state. This may take a wide range of forms, from military involvement to diplomatic efforts,

economic aid, or sanctions (Doyle, 2015).

 International Aid can be understood to mean the voluntary transfer of resources, expertise, or

assistance from one country, organization, or institution to another, usually to address

economic, social, or humanitarian challenges. The aim is to foster development, reduce

poverty, and offer emergency relief (Sachs, 2006).

 Political legitimacy is understood to mean the right of a governing authority-a government,

regime, or ruler-to exercise power and make decisions on behalf of a state or community. It is

the bedrock of stability in any political order, for it breeds public trust and compliance with

laws and policies (Beetham, 2012).

 The Rule of Law is the principle asserting that every individual, institution, and entity—

whether public or private, including the government itself—must adhere to the law and is

held accountable to it (BOOKS, 2010).

1.8 Conceptual Framework

Independent Variable Dependent Variable Political

instability

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 Various Stakeholders

Political instability
Fragmentation and

Factionalism

Fragmentation and

Factionalism

FIGURE 1. 1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

1.0 Introduction
This chapter express a comprehensive review about the impact of political stability on reconstruction

process in Somalia (1992_2013. It is highlights key concepts, Ideas, and opinions from authors,

experts’ perspectives and also it describes related studies, in this chapter we will be discussing the

historical Context of Somalia's Political Landscape, Dynamics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in

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Somalia, role of international actors in reconstruction in Somalia, Political fragmentation and

factionalism in Somalia, social and economic dimensions of recovery in Somalia, comparative

analysis with other fragile states and Somalia, policy implications and recommendations for Somalia

and gaps in current research

1.1 Historical Context of Somalia's Political Landscape

Understanding the historical context of Somalia's political landscape is vital for grasping the

complexities that have shaped its post-conflict reconstruction efforts. Since gaining independence in

1960, Somalia has faced significant challenges rooted in its colonial past and entrenched clan

structures, which hinder the development of a cohesive national identity. The legacy of British and

Italian colonial rule fostered divisions among clans, leading to political fragmentation and conflict

over power and resources. This fragmentation was exacerbated by the authoritarian regime of Major

General Mohamed Siad Barre, whose attempts at centralization ultimately fill up armed opposition

and civil war, culminating in the state collapse of 1991(Menkhaus, 2006).

In the aftermath, the dissolution of state authority shifted governance from formal institutions to clan-

based systems, complicating effective reconstruction. Various attempts at state-building have been

blocked by the interplay of external influences and local clan politics, creating a challenging

environment for institutional development. The enduring clan loyalties and historical mistrust among

groups further impede efforts to establish effective governance. This literature review will explore

these historical dynamics and their implications for reconstruction processes in Somalia, highlighting

the need for inclusive governance that acknowledges the diverse interests of its clans and

communities (Kapteijns, 2012).

Understanding the historical context of Somalia's political landscape is essential for comprehending

the complex dynamics that have shaped the country's post-conflict reconstruction efforts. Somalia's

journey towards statehood has been fraught with challenges, deeply (Quirin, 2004), rooted in its

17
colonial past, clan structures, and the struggles for autonomy and governance that have persisted

since independence in 1960.

The legacy of colonialism laid the groundwork for the fractured political identity that Somalia would

grapple with post-independence. British and Italian colonial rule fostered a system of governance that

prioritized control over local clans rather than creating a cohesive national identity. The colonial

legacy caused divisions among clans, which later manifested in political fragmentation and conflicts

over power and resources. The inability to forge a unified national identity has remained a critical

barrier to effective governance in Somalia (Quirin, 2004).

The post-independence period was marked by a series of political upheavals, culminating in the 1969

coup led by Major General Mohamed Siad Barre. His regime initially promoted a vision of a socialist

state, attempting to centralize power and suppress clan-based rivalries. However, Barre's authoritarian

rule ultimately exacerbated existing tensions. According to Höhne (2006), the regime's failure to

accommodate the diverse political identities and interests of various clans contributed to the

emergence of armed opposition groups, leading to the outbreak of civil war in the late 1980s. The

collapse of the Barre government in 1991 ignited a power vacuum, giving rise to clan militias and

warlords who Competed for control, further entrenching the cycle of violence and instability

(Samatar, 1989).

Brons (2001) emphasizes that the dissolution of state authority in Somalia transformed societal

structures, leading to a shift from state-centered governance to clan-based systems. This transition not

only undermined efforts at building a cohesive national government but also escalated competition

among clans for resources and control. The lack of a robust political framework to mediate these

conflicts has made it exceedingly difficult to establish effective governance, as the state has been

unable to assert its authority over diverse and often conflicting interests (Brons, 2001).

In the years following the civil war, various attempts at state-building emerged, often hindered by the

very political dynamics that had precipitated the conflict. highlights the factors affecting the building

of political institutions in post-conflict Somalia, noting that the interplay of external influences, clan

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politics, and the legacies of past governance failures has created a complicated environment for

institutional development. The international community's involvement, while sometimes beneficial,

has also led to complications, as external actors often prioritize their interests or impose solutions that

do not resonate with local realities (Abdulahi, 2022).

The historical roots of Somalia's fractured state and elusive nation, arguing that the inability to escape

its past is a significant obstacle to recovery. The enduring nature of clan loyalties and the deep-seated

mistrust among different groups continue to impede the establishment of effective political

institutions. The persistence of violence and the rise of extremist groups further complicate the

reconstruction process, as these elements exploit existing grievances and political instability to gain

influence.

The historical context of Somalia's political landscape illustrates a complex interplay of colonial

legacies, clan dynamics, and governance failures that have shaped the country's post-conflict

reconstruction efforts. The fragmentation of political identity, exacerbated by years of conflict and

instability, has created a challenging environment for state-building initiatives. Understanding these

historical dynamics is crucial for devising effective strategies for reconstruction, as they underscore

the need for inclusive governance that recognizes and addresses the diverse interests of Somalia's

clans and communities (Balthasar, 2014).

1.2 Dynamics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Somalia

The dynamics of post-conflict reconstruction in fragile states, particularly in the context of Somalia,

involve a complex interplay of social, political, and economic factors that must be addressed to

facilitate effective recovery. Post-conflict reconstruction is not merely about rebuilding physical

infrastructure; it encompasses the restoration of governance, social order, and economic vitality, all

of which are critical for sustainable peace. Conceptualizes "post-conflict reconstruction" as a

multifaceted process that includes both immediate recovery efforts and the broader, ongoing

reconstruction of social and political structures that may still be under threat from lingering conflicts.

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This distinction is particularly relevant in Somalia, where the remnants of civil strife continue to

influence reconstruction initiatives (Mac Ginty, 2013).

In examining the specific case of Somalia from 1992 to 2013, Onyango (2014) highlights the

challenges faced in the reconstruction process due to the absence of a cohesive state authority and the

pervasive influence of clan-based politics. The lack of a centralized government has led to a

fragmented approach to reconstruction, with various local actors and international agencies often

pursuing disparate objectives. This fragmentation complicates the establishment of effective

governance structures, as multiple stakeholders may have conflicting interests. Moreover, the

competition among factions often leads to power struggles that undermine collaborative efforts,

resulting in a cycle of mistrust and Disappointment among local communities (Onyango, 2014).

A critical aspect of the reconstruction process in Somalia has been the role of women, as emphasized

by Nyabera (2023). Women in Mogadishu have emerged as vital agents of change, participating in

community rebuilding efforts and advocating for social cohesion.

Their involvement challenges traditional gender roles and highlights the importance of inclusive

approaches to reconstruction. As women often bear the brunt of conflict's consequences, their

perspectives and needs must be integrated into planning and implementation strategies. However,

despite their contributions, women frequently face systemic barriers that limit their participation and

recognition in formal reconstruction processes, emphasizing the need for policies that promote gender

equality and empowerment (Nyabera, 2023).

Leadership also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of post-conflict reconstruction.

Discusses how effective leadership is essential for fostering social integration in Somalia. Leaders

who can bridge divides between clans and build trust among communities are critical in establishing

a unified vision for reconstruction. However, the prevailing political instability and the historical

mistrust among different groups often hinder the emergence of such leaders. The lack of visionary

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and inclusive leadership can lead to further fragmentation and conflict, complicating the already

challenging reconstruction landscape (A. S.-M.

Hussein, 2022).

The Somali diaspora has also significantly impacted post-conflict reconstruction efforts. It explores

how the Somali diaspora, particularly in the Wadajir district of Mogadishu, has contributed to the

reconstruction process through remittances, investment, and knowledge transfer. Their involvement

highlights the importance of including expatriate communities in national recovery efforts. However,

the relationship between the diaspora and local populations can be Controversial, as differing

perspectives on governance and development priorities may arise. Ensuring that the contributions of

the diaspora align with local needs and contexts is crucial for fostering a cohesive reconstruction

strategy (IBRAHIM, 2022).

The dynamics of post-conflict reconstruction in Somalia are shaped by a myriad of interrelated

factors, including political fragmentation, the role of women, leadership challenges, and the

contributions of the diaspora. Understanding these elements is essential for formulating effective

reconstruction strategies that not only address immediate needs but also lay the groundwork for

sustainable peace and governance. The ongoing nature of conflict in Somalia necessitates a nuanced

approach to reconstruction that acknowledges and incorporates the diverse experiences and

aspirations of its people.

1.2.1 The Role of International Actors in Reconstruction in Somalia

The involvement of international actors in the reconstruction of Somalia has played a pivotal role in

shaping the country's recovery trajectory since the onset of civil conflict in the early 1990s. The

engagement of these actors—including foreign governments, international organizations, and non-

governmental organizations—has been both beneficial and Controversial, reflecting a complex

interplay of interests, strategies, and outcomes that merit critical examination.

21
Møller (2009), highlights that external actors have significantly influenced the dynamics of the

Somali conflict, often complicating the local political landscape. Initially, humanitarian interventions

aimed at alleviating the suffering caused by the civil war evolved into more complex engagements

focused on peacebuilding and state reconstruction. However, Møller argues that such involvement

frequently lacks a coherent strategy, leading to fragmented efforts that do not sufficiently account for

local realities. This disconnection can result in the imposition of solutions that are ill-suited to the

unique challenges faced by Somali society, perpetuating cycles of dependency rather than fostering

sustainable governance (Møller, 2009).

The role of international actors has also been analyzed through the lens of peace agreements and

conflict resolution. Mekuriyaw (2017) discusses the various peace agreements brokered since 1991

and underscores the significance of international facilitation in these processes. While these

agreements have occasionally provided frameworks for dialogue and negotiation, their

implementation has often faltered due to a lack of local ownership and commitment. International

actors frequently struggle to balance their agendas with the aspirations of local stakeholders, leading

to agreements that may not fully resonate with the realities on the ground. This disconnect can breed

skepticism among Somali communities regarding the motives and effectiveness of foreign

interventions (Menkhaus, 2007).

The contributions of external actors to peacebuilding processes in Somalia, emphasizing that while

their involvement can introduce necessary resources and expertise, it can also exacerbate existing

tensions. They argue that the reliance on external funding and support can diminish local agency,

undermining the capacity of Somali institutions to develop independently. The challenge lies in

ensuring that international support reinforces local initiatives rather than supplanting them, promoting

a more collaborative approach that acknowledges the importance of local knowledge and leadership

(Abdullahi, 2022) .

The complexities inherent in external involvement in state reconstruction, emphasizing the need for a

nuanced understanding of the Somali context. The dissertation posits that external actors often pursue

22
their interests, which may not align with the broader goals of statebuilding and social cohesion in

Somalia. This misalignment can lead to fragmented efforts, as different actors may have competing

priorities or approaches, ultimately complicating the reconstruction process. Kitungu calls for a re-

evaluation of external engagement strategies to prioritize local empowerment and foster genuine

partnerships (Menkhaus, 2010).

The frameworks employed by external actors in peacebuilding, questioning whether these approaches

genuinely support the Somali recovery or un-intentionally hinder progress. They argue that while

there is a window of opportunity for positive intervention, the effectiveness of external peacebuilding

efforts hinges on their ability to adapt to local conditions and dynamics. A one-size-fits-all approach

is unlikely to succeed in a context as diverse and complex as Somalia's, where historical grievances

and clan identities play a significant role in shaping social interactions and political structures.

The role of international actors in the reconstruction of Somalia is characterized by a delicate balance

between providing essential support and or un-intentionally undermining local agency. While their

involvement has brought much-needed resources and expertise to the reconstruction process, the

effectiveness of these efforts remains contingent upon their ability to engage with local realities and

foster genuine partnerships. A critical reassessment of external engagement strategies is necessary to

ensure that they contribute to sustainable recovery and empower Somali institutions, allowing for a

more resilient and self-sufficient state-building process (Abdi, 2021).

1.2.2 Political Fragmentation and Factionalism in Somalia

Political fragmentation and factionalism have been defining features of Somalia’s political landscape,

profoundly influencing its governance and reconstruction efforts. The complexities of these dynamics

are rooted in the historical context of clan identities, competition for resources, and the legacies of

civil conflict. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for analyzing the challenges faced in

rebuilding state structures and fostering social cohesion in the aftermath of prolonged instability.

The factionalism within insurgencies is often driven by competition over resources, leadership, and

ideological differences. In the Somali context, this fragmentation is exacerbated by the clan-based

23
political system, where allegiance to clan identity can supersede national considerations. The

resulting landscape is one marked by numerous competing factions, each varying for power and

control, which complicates the establishment of a unified national government. This competition can

lead to violent confrontations, as different factions seek to assert dominance within their regions,

often at the expense of stability and governance (M. H. Woldemariam, 2011).

The persistence of factionalism in Somalia can also be linked to the concept of the "political

marketplace. This framework suggests that political power in Somalia is often negotiated through

informal networks and transactions rather than through formal state institutions. The disassembled

nature of the Somali state has allowed various actors to operate within this marketplace, creating a

situation where political allegiance is fluid and contingent upon immediate benefits, such as access to

resources or military support. Consequently, factions may shift alliances based on changing

circumstances, further entrenching fragmentation and making it difficult to establish coherent

governance structures (M. Woldemariam, 2018).

The implications of clan unit formation for state-building efforts. He notes that the lack of a cohesive

national identity is detrimental to the establishment of effective governance, as political authority is

often localized and fragmented among clan leaders. This situation undermines the potential for a

centralized state, as power remains dispersed among various competing factions. The challenge lies

in reconciling these fragmented political identities with the need for a unified governance framework

that can effectively address the aspirations of all Somali communities (Van De Walle, 2016).

The interplay between formal and informal governance structures often leads to a patchwork of

authority that complicates development efforts. In this hybrid system, local actors wield significant

influence, but the lack of a coherent overarching authority can hinder coordinated efforts towards

reconstruction and social integration. The resulting environment fosters a reliance on informal

networks, which may not always align with the broader goals of national recovery (Textor, 2022).

The implications of factionalism for inclusive development are significant. The competition among

factions can exacerbate existing inequalities and foster environments where certain groups feel

24
marginalized or excluded from the political process. This exclusion can lead to further conflict and

instability, creating a vicious cycle that undermines reconstruction efforts. As Woldemariam (2014)

notes, the motivations for factions to switch sides during conflicts often stem from rivalries and the

pursuit of patronage, which can shift the political landscape dramatically and unpredictably (M.

Woldemariam, 2019). Political fragmentation and factionalism in Somalia represent substantial

barriers to effective governance and reconstruction. The interplay of clan identities, informal political

arrangements, and competition for resources creates a complex environment where establishing a

unified state is fraught with challenges. Understanding these dynamics is essential for formulating

strategies that address the underlying issues of fragmentation and foster inclusive governance,

ultimately contributing to the stabilization and recovery of Somalia. The path toward reconstruction

necessitates not only addressing the immediate needs of the population but also navigating the

intricate web of political loyalties and conflicts that characterize the Somali landscape.

1.2.3 Social and Economic Dimensions of Recovery in Somalia

The social and economic dimensions of recovery in Somalia are critical to understanding the broader

context of post-conflict reconstruction and humanitarian efforts. The interplay between social

cohesion, economic stability, and the effectiveness of humanitarian aid shapes the trajectory of

recovery in a country that has faced decades of conflict and instability.

The importance of integrating social and economic strategies in recovery efforts. The author argues

that successful recovery must address not only immediate humanitarian needs but also the underlying

social structures that have been disrupted by conflict. This includes fostering community resilience

and rebuilding trust among different social groups, which is essential for sustainable recovery. The

social fabric of Somalia, heavily influenced by clan dynamics, plays a significant role in shaping

recovery strategies. Efforts that fail to consider these dynamics risk exacerbating existing tensions

and undermining progress (Kasina, 2023).

The experiences of Somalis during the 2011 famine, highlighting the critical role of humanitarian aid

in alleviating immediate suffering. However, they also point out that reliance on external assistance

25
can create dependency, which may hinder long-term recovery. The authors advocate for a shift from

purely humanitarian responses to approaches that promote self-sufficiency and resilience among

communities (Maxwell et al., 2016).

This perspective aligns with the findings of the need for measuring resilience in Somalia through

empirical approaches. Ncube's work suggests that understanding the factors contributing to resilience

can inform more effective recovery strategies that empower local populations (Lahai & Koomson,

2020).

The transition from emergency response to rebuilding livelihoods is another crucial aspect of

recovery. The propose a framework for conceptualizing this transition in Mogadishu, arguing that

effective recovery requires a clear understanding of the local context and the specific needs of

communities. Their framework highlights the importance of integrating livelihood support with

emergency response efforts to ensure that recovery is not only immediate but also sustainable. This

approach is vital in a context where many communities have lost their traditional means of livelihood

due to conflict and environmental degradation (Hauser & Mugonya, 2024).

Economic stability is also a key component of recovery. Somalia's journey towards economic

stability and the importance of fostering global confidence in its economic prospects. The author

argues that economic recovery must be underpinned by sound governance, investment in

infrastructure, and the promotion of private sector development (Mohamed, 2024).

The need for a transition from relief and humanitarian assistance to socio-economic sustainability. It

advocates for rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts that focus on long-term development goals,

rather than short-term fixes, to achieve transformative solutions for the Somali population (Nana-

Sinkam, 1995). The social and economic dimensions of recovery in Somalia are intertwined and must

be addressed holistically. Effective recovery strategies should prioritize community resilience,

integrate livelihood support with humanitarian efforts, and foster economic stability through sound

governance and investment. By recognizing the complex interplay of these factors, stakeholders can

26
work towards a more sustainable and inclusive recovery process that addresses the needs and

aspirations of the Somali people.

1.2.4 Comparative Analysis with Other Fragile States and Somalia

Conducting a comparative analysis of Somalia alongside other fragile states provides valuable

insights into the underlying factors contributing to state fragility, the effectiveness of interventions,

and the challenges faced in reconstruction efforts. By examining the experiences of countries such as

South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR), we can identify commonalities and

divergences that illuminate the complexities of state-building in contexts marked by conflict and

instability.

The role of external interventions in shaping state fragility, failure, and collapse across various

African contexts. The analysis reveals that while external actors often aim to stabilize fragile states,

their interventions can sometimes exacerbate existing tensions and contribute to further instability. In

Somalia, international efforts have been characterized by a pattern of reliance on military

interventions and humanitarian assistance, which, while essential in the short term, have not always

translated into sustainable governance or development (Beyene, 2020). The precarious situations in

Somalia, South Sudan, and CAR, noting that these countries share similar challenges related to

governance, security, and economic viability. Their qualitative comparison of the fragile states

index's bottom three countries underscores the importance of understanding the unique historical and

socio-political contexts that shape each nation's trajectory (Lynch & VonDoepp, 2020).

The nexus between resources, conflict, and state fragility, specifically contrasting the situations in

Iraq and Somalia. The author argues that while both countries have faced significant challenges

related to resource management and conflict, the nature of their state fragility differs markedly. In

Somalia, the absence of a centralized state has allowed for the proliferation of informal governance

structures, often rooted in clan affiliations. This contrasts with Iraq, where state institutions, despite

their weaknesses, continue to exist in a more formalized capacity. The implications for reconstruction

27
are profound; in Somalia, rebuilding efforts must navigate a landscape of fragmented authority, while

in Iraq, the focus may be more on reforming existing institutions (Dibeh, 2011).

Odeysuge (2020) examines how state fragility drives forced migration and displacement, particularly

in South and Central Somalia. The dissertation highlights the interplay between governance failures

and the resulting humanitarian crises that compel populations to flee.

This phenomenon is not unique to Somalia; similar patterns can be observed in other fragile states

were violence and instability lead to significant displacement. Understanding these dynamics is

crucial for framing reconstruction efforts, as displaced populations often face distinct challenges that

must be addressed in recovery strategies.

The comparative analysis of these fragile states reveals several critical insights. Firstly, while external

interventions are often necessary in contexts of extreme fragility, their design and implementation

must be carefully considered to avoid exacerbating existing tensions. The experiences of Somalia,

South Sudan, and CAR illustrate that a nuanced understanding of local contexts is essential in

tailoring interventions that promote stability rather than perpetuating cycles of conflict.

Secondly, the role of informal governance structures and local agency must be recognized in

reconstruction efforts. In Somalia, the reliance on clan-based systems has shaped political and social

dynamics, necessitating approaches that engage local actors rather than imposing top-down solutions.

This contrasts with other fragile states where more formal governance structures may still hold

influence, albeit in weakened forms.

Finally, the interconnectedness of social, economic, and political dimensions in fragile contexts

underscores the need for comprehensive recovery strategies. As evidenced by the experiences in

Somalia and its counterparts, addressing the root causes of fragility—through inclusive governance,

economic development, and social cohesion—is essential for fostering long-term stability and

resilience.

The comparative analysis of Somalia with other fragile states highlights the complexities of state

fragility and the multifaceted challenges of reconstruction. By examining these experiences

28
collectively, we gain a deeper understanding of the factors that contribute to state failure and the

strategies that may facilitate recovery and resilience in similar contexts. This analysis not only

informs our understanding of Somalia but also offers valuable lessons for policymakers and

practitioners engaged in fragile state reconstruction efforts (Odeysuge2020).

1.2.5 Policy Implications and Recommendations for Somalia

Addressing the multifaceted challenges facing Somalia requires a comprehensive approach that

integrates political, social, and economic dimensions into policy formulation. As the country

navigates the complexities of state-building, it is essential to draw on lessons learned from past

experiences and adapt strategies that align with the unique context of Somali society.

Menkhaus (2014) emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of state failure and statebuilding

in Somalia. He argues that rather than striving for a traditional, centralized state, policymakers should

consider the concept of a “functional failed state.” This approach acknowledges the existing informal

governance structures and the role of clan dynamics, suggesting that effective governance in Somalia

may not resemble conventional state models. Policymakers should thus focus on strengthening these

informal systems and integrating them into a broader governance framework that enhances local

agency and accountability. This perspective necessitates a shift from top-down governance

approaches to more participatory models that engage local communities in decision-making processes

(Menkhaus, 2014).

The critical necessity of military reform as a cornerstone for achieving both geo-economic and

geopolitical stability in Somalia. The reform of the Somali National Army is vital for establishing

security and ensuring that the state can assert its authority. Policymakers must prioritize training and

equipping the military while fostering a culture of accountability and professionalism. Such reforms

should be complemented by community-based security initiatives that enhance trust between local

populations and security forces, thereby promoting a sense of safety and stability essential for

recovery (L. A. Hussein, 2021).

29
The implications of federalism for political stability in Somalia, particularly in urban centers like

Mogadishu. The establishment of a federal system can help manage the diverse interests of various

clans while promoting inclusive governance. However, the successful implementation of federalism

requires careful delineation of powers and responsibilities between federal and regional authorities.

Policymakers should focus on fostering collaboration and dialogue among different levels of

government to ensure that federalism does not exacerbate existing tensions but rather serves as a

mechanism for conflict resolution and resource sharing (L. A. Hussein, 2021).

The role of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in the broader context of state failure.

While AMISOM has played a significant role in stabilizing certain regions, it has also contributed to

the perception of an externally imposed order that may not resonate with local realities. Policymakers

need to reassess the role of international actors and ensure that their interventions are aligned with

Somali priorities. This includes transitioning from a military-centric approach to one that emphasizes

political solutions and local capacity building. Engaging Somali stakeholders in the planning and

implementation of security strategies is crucial for fostering legitimacy and trust. In light of these

insights, several policy recommendations emerge. First, a comprehensive strategy that acknowledges

the complexities of Somali governance is essential. This approach should emphasize the importance

of local governance structures and seek to integrate them into a functional state framework that

respects clan dynamics while promoting national unity.

Second, military reform must be prioritized within the context of broader security sector reform,

ensuring that the Somali National Army is capable of maintaining order while being accountable to

the population it serves. This includes investing in community policing initiatives that enhance public

trust and participation in security matters.

Third, the establishment of a federal system should be pursued with a focus on inclusivity and

collaboration among various stakeholders. Policymakers should facilitate dialogue among clans and

regions to foster a sense of ownership over the federal system and promote

stability.

30
Finally, the role of international actors must be recalibrated to support Somali-led initiatives rather

than impose externally driven agendas. Engaging local communities and stakeholders in the

reconstruction process will enhance the legitimacy and effectiveness of interventions, ultimately

contributing to a more stable and resilient Somalia.

The path toward recovery and stability in Somalia requires a multifaceted approach that considers the

intricate social, political, and economic dimensions of the country. By implementing policies that

promote local agency, enhance security, and foster inclusive governance, Somalia can move toward a

more functional and cohesive state, ultimately paving the way for sustainable development and peace

(Fisher, 2019).

1.3 Gaps in Current Research

Despite the considerable body of literature addressing the complexities of post-conflict reconstruction

in Somalia, several significant gaps remain that warrant further investigation. These gaps not only

highlight the limitations of current research but also present opportunities for future contributions to

the field of peace studies, governance, and development in fragile states.

Firstly, while existing studies have examined the role of international actors and external

interventions in Somalia, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis focusing on the long-term impacts

of these interventions on local governance structures. Most literature tends to evaluate the

effectiveness of specific programs or policies in isolation, without adequately considering how these

interventions interact with or disrupt existing local power dynamics. Research that delves into the

implications of international involvement for local governance and agency is essential to understand

how to foster sustainable recovery processes that are aligned with the needs and aspirations of Somali

communities.

Secondly, the literature often emphasizes the political and military dimensions of recovery, yet the

social dimensions—particularly the roles of women and marginalized groups— remain

underexplored. Although some studies acknowledge the importance of including diverse voices in the

reconstruction process, comprehensive analyses that specifically address the unique challenges faced
31
by these groups are limited. Future research should focus on understanding how social dynamics,

including gender relations and the inclusion of youth, can be effectively integrated into recovery

strategies to ensure that all segments of the population benefit from reconstruction efforts.

Furthermore, while studies have addressed the economic dimensions of recovery, there is a notable

absence of empirical research that quantitatively measures the impact of various recovery strategies

on economic resilience and development in Somalia. Much of the current literature relies on

qualitative assessments, which, while valuable, do not provide a robust framework for evaluating the

effectiveness of different approaches. Research that employs quantitative methodologies to assess the

economic outcomes of specific interventions could significantly enhance our understanding of what

strategies are most effective in promoting economic stability.

Additionally, the concept of state fragility is frequently discussed in relation to Somalia, yet the

comparative analysis with other fragile states often lacks depth. Although some studies provide

insights into similarities and differences, there is a need for more nuanced comparative research that

contextualizes Somalia within broader frameworks of state fragility in Africa. Such analysis could

illuminate the specific factors that contribute to Somalia's unique challenges and provide lessons

learned that are applicable to other contexts facing similar issues.

Finally, there is a growing recognition of the importance of local agency in the recovery process, yet

research on how local actors can effectively influence policy and decisionmaking remains scarce.

While some studies highlight the existence of informal governance structures, there is limited

exploration of how these structures can be harnessed to facilitate more inclusive and effective

governance. Investigating the mechanisms through which local actors can engage with national and

international stakeholders to shape recovery policies could provide critical insights for enhancing

local governance and accountability.

The identified gaps in current research underscore the need for a more integrated and inclusive

approach to studying the dynamics of recovery in Somalia. Future investigations should focus on the

long-term impacts of international interventions on local governance, the roles of marginalized

32
groups, quantitative assessments of economic recovery strategies, nuanced comparative analyses with

other fragile states, and the mechanisms of local agency in shaping recovery policies. Addressing

these gaps will not only contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the complexities of

post-conflict reconstruction in Somalia but also enhance the effectiveness of recovery strategies

employed in similar fragile contexts.

CHAPTER THREE:

METHODOLOGY

3.0 Introduction
This chapter explains the methods and procedures will use to investigate the impact of political

instability on reconstruction process in Somalia. It outlines the research design, population of the

study, study area, sample size determination, sampling procedure, data collection instrument, data

collection procedure, data analysis procedure, inclusion and exclusion criteria, quality control and

ethical consideration and limitation of the study.

33
3.1 Research design
This study will adopt a quantitative research design to measure the relationship between corruption

and service delivery. A descriptive approach is used to gather numerical data through structured

questionnaires.

3.3 Population of the study

The target population of the study will consist of 58 participants where 10 political commentators, 18

municipal employees and 30 residents of Mogadishu who interact with local government. These

groups provide a balanced perspective, allowing the study to capture both internal

(employees/officials) and external (citizens) dimensions of corruption and its effects.

Table target population

Types of Population Target Population

Political commentators 10

Municipal employees 18

Residents 30

Total 58

3.4 Study area

The study will conduct in Mogadishu, the capital city of Somalia. If focuses on various districts to

capture diverse perspective on corruption and its impact on service delivery.

3.5 Sample size determination

The sample of 51 participants were determined using Slovin’s formula with a 95% confidence level.

This size ensures accurate representation of the population. Where; n = Sample Size

N = Target Population

Ne = Margin of error (commonly set at 0.05 for a 95% confidence level

N
n= 2 n = = 51
1+Ne

Table Sample Size

34
 Types of population Target population Sample size

Political commentators 10 10

Municipal employees 18 14

Residents 30 27

Total 58 51

3.6 Sampling procedure

Stratified random sampling will use to select participants. The population will divide into groups

based on their roles (employees/officials, residents), and individuals will randomly choose from each

group.

3.7 Data collection instrument

A structured questionnaire will develop to collect data. It consists of closed-ended questions using

Likert scale to assess perceptions of corruption and service delivery.

3.8 Data collection procedure

The questionnaires will distribute to participants in person and through email. Respondents will give

clear instructions and assure confidentiality.

3.9 Data analysis procedure

The collected data will be entered into Statistical Package for Social Science, (SPSS Version 16.0)

for analysis. Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation) will be used to examine the findings.

3.10 Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Inclusion Criteria

A. Local government officials and employees.

B. Residents of Mogadishu who use government services.

35
Exclusion Criteria

A. Individuals unwilling to participate.

B. Incomplete questionnaires.

3.10.1Quality control

Reliability

Reliability will achieve by conducting a pilot test of the questionnaire with 20 participants prior to the

full-scale data collection. This will allow for the identification and refinement of unclear or

ambiguous questions to improve consistency. Additionally, the internal consistency of the

questionnaire will assess using Cronbach’s Alpha in SPSS, with a value of 0.7 or higher consider

acceptable. To further enhance reliability, uniform data collection procedures will follow, and

detailed instructions will provide to respondents and data collection to minimise variations.

Validity

Validity will address through multiple approaches. First, content validity will ensure by designing the

questionnaire to comprehensively cover all aspects of the research objectives, including perceptions

of corruption and its impact on local government service delivery. Experts in political science and

public administration will review the questions to ensure alignment with the stud’s theoretical

farmwork. Second, construct validity will establish by basing the questions on establish theories of

corruption and service delivery, ensuring that the instrument accurately will measure the intended

concepts. Thirdly, face validity will teste during the pilot study, where participants confirm that the

questions will clear and relevant to the research topic. By implementing these measures, the study

will ensure that the questionnaire will both reliable and valid, thereby enhancing the credibility and

generalizability of the study

3.10.2 Ethical consideration

Participants will provide informed consent before participating. Their responses will keep

confidential, and they will free to withdraw from the study at any time.

36
3.10.3 Limitation of the study
A. Resource constraints (insufficient time and fund for the study).

B. Security challenges.

C. Limited access to government officials.

D. Language barriers.

Chapter 4

Date Presentation, Analyzing and Interpretation

4.0 Introduction

This chapter focuses on the presentation, analysis, and interpretation of the findings regarding the

impact of political instability on the reconstruction process in Somalia from 1992 to 2013. Political

instability has had profound effects on the country's ability to rebuild its infrastructure, economy, and

social systems following years of conflict. The findings highlight how the lack of effective

governance, frequent changes in leadership, and internal divisions hindered the progress of

reconstruction efforts

4.1 Demographic Characteristics

4.1.1 Gender Of Respondents

37
TABLE 4.1. 1 GENDER OF RESPONDENTS

Frequency Percent

Valid Male 37 74.0

Female 13 26.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The table presents the distribution of the respondents' gender, showing the frequency and percentage

of males and females. The data indicates a significant gender disparity, with a much higher

proportion of male respondents (74%) compared to female respondents (26%).

The total number of respondents is 50, with males making up nearly three-fourths of the group and

females accounting for just over one-fourth.

FIGURE 4.1. 1 GENDER OF RESPONDENTS

38
4.1.2Educational Level of Respondents
TABLE 4.1. 2 EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF RESPONDENTS
Frequency Percent

Master Degree 27 54.0

Bachelor degree 6 12.0

PhD 5 10.0

Diploma 12 24.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The table presents the distribution of the respondents’ educational level of respondents presented in a

more polished tabular format, The educational levels of respondents show that most have a Master's

degree (54%), followed by Diploma holders (24%). A smaller percentage hold Bachelor’s degree

(12%) and PhDs (10%). This indicates a majority with advanced education levels and a mix of

qualifications

FIGURE 4.1. 2 EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF RESPONDENTS

39
4.1.3Age Of Respondents
TABLE 4.1. 3 AGE OF RESPONDENTS
Frequency Percent

Valid 18-24 35 70.0

25-44 10 20.0

35-44 4 8.0

45 and above 1 2.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The majority of respondents (70%) are aged 18-24. A smaller proportion are aged 25-34 (20%), and

35-44 (8%), with only 2% aged 45 and above. This indicates that most participants are in the younger

age group

FIGURE 4.1. 3 AGE OF RESPONDENTS

40
4.1.4occupation
TABLE 4.1. 4 OCCUPATION
Frequency Percent

Valid Student 11 22.0

government-employee 4 8.0

non-governmental organization 26 52.0

Private sector employee 9 18.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The data shows that most respondents (52%) work in non-governmental organizations. Students

make up 22%, private sector employees account for 18%, and government employees represent 8%.

This highlights a majority from non-governmental sectors, with a balanced distribution across other

categories

FIGURE 4.1. 4 OCCUPATION

41
4.1.5experience of respondents
TABLE 4.1. 5 EXPERIENCE OF RESPONDENTS
Frequency Percent

Valid Less than 1 year 10 20.0

1–3 years 15 30.0

4–6 years 18 36.0

7+ years 6 12.0

5 1 2.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents have 4–6 years of experience (36%), followed by 1–3 years (30%) and less than 1

year (20%). A smaller group has 7+ years of experience (12%), with 2% needing clarification. Mid-

level experience is the most common

FIGURE 4.1. 5 OCCUPATION

4.2Analyzing The Relationship Between Political Instability and

42
Reconstruction Initiatives

4.2.1Political Instability Has Hindered the Success of Reconstruction Initiatives in

Somalia.

TABLE 4.2. 1 POLITICAL INSTABILITY HAS HINDERED THE SUCCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION

INITIATIVES IN SOMALIA.
Frequency Percent

Valid 1 2.0

Strongly Disagree 17 34.0

Disagree 7 14.0

Neutral 6 12.0

Agree 12 24.0

Strongly Agree 7 14.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The majority of respondents (34%) strongly disagree, while 24% agree. Smaller groups are neutral

(12%) or strongly agree (14%). Only 2% fall into the lowest category, showing varied opinions

FIGURE 4.2. 1 POLITICAL INSTABILITY HAS HINDERED THE SUCCESS OF

RECONSTRUCTION INITIATIVES IN SOMALIA.
43
4.2.2International Stakeholders (E.G., Un, NGOs) Have Played a Significant Role in

Reconstruction Efforts Amid Political Instability.

TABLE 4.2. 2 INTERNATIONAL STAKEHOLDERS (E.G., UN, NGOS) HAVE PLAYED A

SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS AMID POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 11 22.0

Disagree 17 34.0

Neutral 12 24.0

Agree 6 12.0

Strongly Agree 4 8.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents disagree (34%) or are neutral (24%). Fewer people agree (12%) or strongly agree

(8%). Only 22% strongly disagree. This shows a range of mixed opinions

FIGURE 4.2. 2 INTERNATIONAL STAKEHOLDERS (E.G., UN, NGOS) HAVE PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS AMID POLITICAL INSTABILITY

44
4.2.3 Local Government Institutions Have Adequately Contributed to The

Success of Reconstruction Initiatives

TABLE 4.2. 3 LOCAL GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS HAVE ADEQUATELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE

SUCCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION INITIATIVES
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 10 20.0

Disagree 11 22.0

Neutral 10 20.0

Agree 7 14.0

Strongly Agree 12 24.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are mixed: 24% strongly agree, 22% disagree, and 20% each strongly disagree

and are neutral. 14% agree. This shows a variety of opinions, with strong agreement being the

most com

45
FIGURE 4.2. 3 LOCAL GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS HAVE ADEQUATELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
SUCCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION INITIATIVES

4.2.3Reconstruction Initiatives Have Effectively Addressed the Needs of

Conflict-Affected Communities Despite Political Instability.

TABLE 4.2. 4 RECONSTRUCTION INITIATIVES HAVE EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED THE NEEDS

OF CONFLICT-AFFECTED COMMUNITIES DESPITE POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 13 26.0

Disagree 9 18.0

Neutral 7 14.0

Agree 14 28.0

Strongly Agree 7 14.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are fairly balanced: 28% agree, 26% strongly disagree, and 18% disagree. 14% are

neutral, and another 14% strongly agree. This indicates a mix of opinions, with a slight lean towards

agreement

FIGURE4.2. 4 4 RECONSTRUCTION INITIATIVES HAVE EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED THE NEEDS OF

CONFLICT-AFFECTED COMMUNITIES DESPITE POLITICAL INSTABILITY
46
4.2.5 Political Instability Will Continue to Impact the Sustainability of

Reconstruction Efforts.

TABLE 4.2. 4 POLITICAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SUSTAINABILITY

OF RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS

Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 7 14.0

Disagree 8 16.0

Neutral 11 22.0

Agree 15 30.0

Strongly Agree 9 18.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents agree (30%) or are neutral (22%). 18% strongly agree, 16% disagree, and 14%

strongly disagree. This shows a general tendency towards agreement with a variety of opinions

FIGURE 4.2. 5 POLITICAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF

RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS

4.3 Evaluating Political Dynamics Shaping State-Building in Post-

47
Conflict Somalia

4.3.1Political fragmentation has been a significant barrier to effective state-

building in Somalia

TABLE 4.3. 1 POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO EFFECTIVE

STATE-BUILDING IN SOMALIA
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 10 20.0

Disagree 10 20.0

Neutral 8 16.0

Agree 13 26.0

Strongly Agree 9 18.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are mixed: 26% agree, 20% strongly disagree, and 20% disagree. 16% are neutral, and

18% strongly agree. This shows a range of opinions with a slight lean towards agreement.

48
FIGURE 4.3. 1 POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO EFFECTIVE
STATE-BUILDING IN SOMALIA

4.3.2 Clan-based factionalism has significantly influenced state-building

outcomes

TABLE4.3. 2 CLAN-BASED FACTIONALISM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED STATEBUILDING

OUTCOMES.
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 9 18.0

Disagree 11 22.0

Neutral 6 12.0

Agree 17 34.0

Strongly Agree 7 14.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents agree (34%), followed by 22% who disagree and 18% who strongly disagree. 14%

strongly agree, and 12% are neutral. This shows a general tendency towards agreement, with some

mixed opinions

FIGURE 4.3. 2 CLAN-BASED FACTIONALISM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED STATEBUILDING

OUTCOMES.

49
4.3.3 The international community has adequately accounted for Somalia’s

political dynamics in its state-building efforts

TABLE 4.3. 3 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ADEQUATELY ACCOUNTED FOR SOMALIA’S
POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN ITS STATE-BUILDING EFFORTS.
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 9 18.0

Disagree 11 22.0

Neutral 10 20.0

Agree 11 22.0

Strongly Agree 9 18.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are evenly spread: 22% agree, 22% disagree, and 20% are neutral. 18% strongly agree,

and 18% strongly disagree. This shows a balance of opinions with no clear majority

FIGURE 4.3. 3 THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ADEQUATELY ACCOUNTED FOR SOMALIA’S
POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN ITS STATE-BUILDING EFFORTS.

50
4.3.4 Somali leaders have been effective in addressing internal political conflicts

during state-building

TABLE 4.3. 4 SOMALI LEADERS HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN ADDRESSING INTERNAL

POLITICAL CONFLICTS DURING STATE-BUILDING

Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 6 12.0

Disagree 14 28.0

Neutral 7 14.0

Agree 15 30.0

Strongly Agree 8 16.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents agree (30%), followed by 28% who disagree and 16% who strongly agree. 14% are

neutral, and 12% strongly disagree. This shows a general tendency towards agreement with some

mixed opinions

FIGURE 4.3. 4 SOMALI LEADERS HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN ADDRESSING INTERNAL POLITICAL
CONFLICTS DURING STATE-BUILDING
51
4.3.4 External political interference has complicated state-building processes in

Somalia

TABLE 4.3. 5 EXTERNAL POLITICAL INTERFERENCE HAS COMPLICATED STATE -BUILDING

PROCESSES IN SOMALIA
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 7 14.0

Disagree 10 20.0

Neutral 4 8.0

Agree 16 32.0

Strongly Agree 13 26.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents agree (32%) or strongly agree (26%). 20% disagree, 14% strongly disagree, and

8% are neutral. This shows a general tendency towards agreement

FIGURE 4.3. 5 EXTERNAL POLITICAL INTERFERENCE HAS COMPLICATED STATEBUILDING

PROCESSES IN SOMALIA

4.4 Assessing the Impact of Internal Conflicts on Social Fabric and

52
Economic Recovery

4.4.1. Internal conflict have severely disrupted the social fabric in Somalia.

TABLE 4.4. 1 INTERNAL CONFLICTS HAVE SEVERELY DISRUPTED THE SOCIAL FABRIC IN SOMALIA
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 14 28.0

Disagree 9 18.0

Neutral 2 4.0

Agree 12 24.0

Strongly Agree 13 26.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are mixed: 28% strongly disagree, 26% strongly agree, and 24% agree. 18% disagree,

and only 4% are neutral. This shows a variety of opinions, with a slight lean towards disagreement.

FIGURE 4.4. 1 INTERNAL CONFLICTS HAVE SEVERELY DISRUPTED THE SOCIAL FABRIC IN

SOMALIA

4.4.2Humanitarian aid has significantly addressed the effects of internal conflicts.

TABLE 4.4. 2 HUMANITARIAN AID HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ADDRESSED THE EFFECTS OF INTERNAL
CONFLICTS.

53
 Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 9 18.0

Disagree 10 20.0

Neutral 6 12.0

Agree 14 28.0

Strongly Agree 11 22.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are varied: 28% agree, 22% strongly agree, and 20% disagree. 18% strongly disagree,

and 12% are neutral. This shows a range of opinions, with a slight tendency toward agreement

FIGURE4.4. 2 HUMANITARIAN AID HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ADDRESSED THE EFFECTS OF INTERNAL

CONFLICTS.

4.4.3Infrastructure development initiatives have sufficiently contributed to

economic recovery during the reconstruction period

TABLE 4.4. 3 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES HAVE SUFFICIENTLY CONTRIBUTED

TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD
Frequency Percent

54
 Valid Strongly Disagree 4 8.0

Disagree 11 22.0

Neutral 6 12.0

Agree 16 32.0

Strongly Agree 13 26.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

The responses are spread out: 32% agree, 26% strongly agree, and 22% disagree. 12% are neutral,

and 8% strongly disagree. This shows a general trend toward agreement with some mixed opinions.

FIGURE 4.4. 3 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES HAVE SUFFICIENTLY

CONTRIBUTED TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD

4.4.4Reconstruction efforts have effectively addressed poverty alleviation in

Somalia.

TABLE 4.4. 4 RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS HAVE EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED POVERTY

ALLEVIATION IN SOMALIA
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 8 16.0

Disagree 8 16.0

Neutral 9 18.0

55
 Agree 5 10.0

Strongly Agree 20 40.0

Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents strongly agree (40%), followed by 18% who are neutral. 16% strongly disagree and

16% disagree, with 10% agreeing. This shows a strong tendency toward agreement, with fewer

expressing disagreement

FIGURE 4.4. 4 RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS HAVE EFFECTIVELY ADDRESSED POVERTY

ALLEVIATION IN SOMALIA

4.4.5Internal conflicts continue to hinder Somalia’s overall economic recovery

TABLE 4.4. 5 INTERNAL CONFLICTS CONTINUE TO HINDER SOMALIA’S OVERALL ECONOMIC

RECOVERY.
Frequency Percent

Valid Strongly Disagree 9 18.0

Disagree 8 16.0

Neutral 5 10.0

Agree 9 18.0

Strongly Agree 19 38.0

56
 Total 50 100.0

Primary Date (source: 2024)

Most respondents strongly agree (38%), followed by 18% who strongly disagree and 18% who agree.

16% disagree, and 10% are neutral. This shows a strong overall agreement, with some varying

opinions

FIGURE 4.4. 5 INTERNAL CONFLICTS CONTINUE TO HINDER SOMALIA’S OVERALL ECONOMIC

RECOVERY.

57
 4.5 Discussions and key findings
This chapter offers an analysis of survey data that examines the political, social, and economic

obstacles encountered during Somalia's reconstruction and state-building initiatives. The results

indicate that despite considerable efforts towards rebuilding, issues such as political instability,

internal strife, and foreign interference have significantly impacted the effectiveness and viability of

these initiatives. Additionally, the responses from the survey underscore the diverse roles of various

stakeholders, including local governments, international organizations, and Somali leaders, in

tackling the challenges associated with the nation’s reconstruction.

Demographic information reveals that the country’s reconstruction efforts are primarily driven by a

young and mainly male population with notable education levels. Nonetheless, their opinions

regarding the success and future of these endeavors vary greatly, reflecting the intricate nature of

state-building in a post-conflict setting.

Demographic Profile:

The participants are mainly young, with a majority (70%) between the ages of 18 and 24. A notable

number possess advanced degrees, as over half of those surveyed have earned a master's degree

(54%). Regarding their occupations, most respondents work in nongovernmental organizations

(52%), followed by students (22%) and those employed in the private sector (18%).

Political Instability and Reconstruction:

A significant segment (34%) of respondents strongly disagrees that political instability has obstructed

the success of reconstruction efforts, while 24% believe that instability has indeed impacted these

endeavors. Views on the influence of international stakeholders are mixed; while 34% question the

effectiveness of international support (such as that from the UN and

58
NGOs), 20% recognize its contribution to reconstruction efforts. Additionally, opinions vary on the

performance of local governments: 24% strongly agree that they have made substantial contributions,

whereas 22% disagree, feeling they have not met expectations.

State-Building and Political Challenges:

Political instability is anticipated to continue affecting the sustainability of reconstruction efforts,

with 30% agreeing that it will serve as a barrier.

Political fragmentation and clan-based factionalism are acknowledged as major obstacles to state-

building, with 26% of respondents recognizing the importance of fragmentation. Somali leadership is

viewed as somewhat effective in handling internal conflicts, with 30% in agreement, although a

significant percentage (28%) holds a differing opinion.

Social and Economic Recovery:

Ongoing internal conflicts are still destabilizing Somalia's social structure, with 28% firmly agreeing

that these conflicts have greatly undermined societal cohesion. Humanitarian assistance is perceived

as a crucial element in mitigating the impacts of internal conflicts, with 28% acknowledging its

beneficial effects. Nevertheless, despite initiatives, many respondents consider infrastructure

development to be inadequate in aiding economic recovery, while 32% feel it has made a significant

contribution. The overall economic recovery is considerably impeded by internal conflicts, with 38%

strongly agreeing that these conflicts remain a major barrier to economic advancement.

59
 Chapters five

Conclusion and recommendations

5.0 introduction

This chapter provides a summary of the key findings discussed in the previous chapters and

emphasizes the conclusions and recommendations drawn from the

study.

5.1 Conclusion
The reconstruction of Somalia from 1992 to 2013 has been profoundly influenced by political

instability, which has acted as a critical barrier to state-building, economic recovery, and social

cohesion. The absence of a unified central authority and the persistence of clanbased rivalries have

fragmented governance, preventing the establishment of robust national institutions. Additionally, the

role of international actors, while instrumental in providing resources and humanitarian aid, often

lacked cohesion and alignment with local realities, further complicating recovery efforts.

Efforts to rebuild Somalia were hindered by recurring internal conflicts and external political

interference, which disrupted the social fabric and economic stability of the nation. However,

localized initiatives, including contributions from the Somali diaspora and grassroots organizations,

provided pockets of progress. Despite these efforts, the inability to effectively address underlying

political challenges limited the sustainability and success of reconstruction initiatives.

This research underscores the need for addressing political fragmentation, fostering inclusive

governance, and integrating local dynamics into national recovery strategies. The lessons drawn from

Somalia’s experiences provide valuable insights into the complex interplay of political, social, and

economic dimensions in post-conflict reconstruction.

60
This study highlights the intricate relationship between political instability and reconstruction

processes in Somalia from 1992 to 2013. The analysis demonstrates that political instability,

characterized by clan-based factionalism, lack of centralized authority, and external interference, has

significantly hindered state-building and economic recovery efforts. Despite substantial international

intervention and local initiatives, progress remained fragmented due to the deeply entrenched

political and social divides. Efforts to rebuild governance structures, infrastructure, and social

cohesion faced persistent challenges from internal conflicts and the activities of extremist groups,

particularly Al-Shabaab.

The study also reveals the role of international actors, including the United Nations and NGOs, in

mitigating some effects of instability through humanitarian aid and peacebuilding initiatives.

However, these efforts often fell short due to insufficient alignment with local realities and the lack of

a unified approach to reconstruction. The findings emphasize the importance of integrating local

governance systems, fostering inclusivity, and addressing underlying political dynamics for

sustainable recovery

61
5.2 Recommendations
Promote Inclusive Governance: Implement governance models that recognize and integrate clan

dynamics into national frameworks to reduce fragmentation, encourage dialogue and collaboration

among different factions to create a shared vision for Somalia’s recovery.

Strengthen Local Institutions: Focus on capacity-building for local governments to improve their

ability to deliver services and foster trust among citizens, engage communitybased organizations in

planning and implementing development projects.

Reform Security Structures: Invest in comprehensive security sector reform, emphasizing

accountability and professionalism within the Somali National Army and local law enforcement,

expand community-based security initiatives to enhance public safety and counter extremist

influences.

Enhance International Coordination: Align international aid programs with the priorities and

contexts of Somali society, emphasizing long-term development over short-term relief, Foster

partnerships between international agencies and local actors to ensure sustainable interventions.

Support Economic Recovery: Develop infrastructure projects to support economic activities and

improve connectivity across regions.

Promote Social Cohesion: Design programs that address the grievances of marginalized

communities to foster reconciliation and unity, Leverage the role of women and youth in

reconstruction by providing platforms for their active participation.

These recommendations aim to address the multifaceted challenges Somalia faces, creating a

foundation for sustainable recovery and resilience in the years to come.

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APANDEXES

Questionnaire

Part1: Demographic Questions:

1. What is your age group?

65
 A. Under 18 B. 18–24 C. 25–34 D. 35–44 E. 45 and above

2. What is your gender?

A. Male B. Female

3. What is your highest level of education?

Primary school Secondary school Bachelor’s degree Master’s degree or higher

4. What is your occupation?

A. Student B. Government employee C. non-governmental organization (NGO) worker D.

Private sector employee

5. How long have you been residing in Somalia (or are familiar with Somalia's reconstruction

efforts)?

A. Less than 1 year B. 1–3 years C. 4–6 years D. 7+ years

Part 2: Analyzing the Relationship Between Political Instability and

Reconstruction Initiatives

1: Political instability has hindered the success of reconstruction initiatives in Somalia.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree
2: International stakeholders (e.g., UN, NGOs) have played a significant role in reconstruction efforts

amid political instability.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree

3: Local government institutions have adequately contributed to the success of reconstruction

initiatives.

66
A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

4: Reconstruction initiatives have effectively addressed the needs of conflict-affected communities

despite political instability.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

5: Political instability will continue to impact the sustainability of reconstruction efforts.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree

Part 3: Evaluating Political Dynamics Shaping State-Building in Post-Conflict

Somalia

1: Political fragmentation has been a significant barrier to effective state-building in Somalia.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree

2: Clan-based factionalism has significantly influenced state-building outcomes.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

3: The international community has adequately accounted for Somalia’s political dynamics in its

state-building efforts.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

4: Somali leaders have been effective in addressing internal political conflicts during statebuilding

67
A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

5: External political interference has complicated state-building processes in Somalia

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

part 4: Assessing the Impact of Internal Conflicts on Social Fabric and

Economic Recovery

1: Internal conflicts have severely disrupted the social fabric in Somalia.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree

2: Humanitarian aid has significantly addressed the effects of internal conflicts.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

3: Infrastructure development initiatives have sufficiently contributed to economic recovery during

the reconstruction period.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly

Agree

4: Reconstruction efforts have effectively addressed poverty alleviation in Somalia.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

5: Internal conflicts continue to hinder Somalia’s overall economic recovery.

A. Strongly Disagree B. Disagree C. Neutral D. Agree E. Strongly Agree

68
69