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Global Climate Change
 Global
Climate
Change
 A Primer 

Orrin H. Pilkey a nd Keith C. Pilkey

W i t h b at i k a rt b y Ma ry Edn a F r a ser

duke university press durham and london 2011

© 2011 Duke University Press
All rights reserved.
Printed in Italy on acid-free paper ∞
Designed by C. H. Westmoreland
Typeset in Chaparral with Gill Sans display
by Copperline Book Services, Inc.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

appear on the last printed page of this book.

Duk e Uni v er sit y Pr ess gr atefully ack now ledges the support of the follow ing
orga niz ations a nd indi v idua ls for prov iding funds towa r d the production of
this book.

The Santa Aguila Foundation (www.coastalcare and educated we become about our shorelines and the
.org) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to pre- threats they face from global climate change, the more
serving coastlines around the world. Global climate connected we become, and the firmer our willingness
change is central to the future of the world’s coasts; to protect these endangered natural habitats will be.
that is especially true of rising sea level, which am- These conservation efforts will have an impact on all
plifies coastal erosion, the melting of ice caps and living beings, but it is our children and future genera-
glaciers, and the destruction of reefs, wetlands, and tions who will benefit the most. Ultimately, global
ecosystems. More intense rains and hurricanes com- climate change will affect life on Earth in many ways,
bining with rising sea levels will lead to more severe but the extent of the change is largely up to us. We
flooding and potential loss of property and life. The hope that readers will understand the need for im-
problem is serious. More than 10% of the world’s mediate action if the world’s beaches and coastlines
population lives in vulnerable areas less than ten are to remain beautiful playgrounds and important
meters (about thirty feet) above sea level. Eleven ecosystems.
of the fifteen largest cities in the world are located
on a coast or river estuary. The rising sea level will The mission of the Coastal Conservation League
potentially result in millions of climate refugees. It (coastalconservationleague.org) is to protect the natu-
is already a threat to many island nations that are ral environment of the South Carolina coastal plain
at the front lines of climate change. Currently many and to enhance the quality of life of our communities.
people are skeptical about the very existence of global
climate change, let alone its human connection. We The North Carolina Coastal Federation (nccoast
believe that there can be no meaningful response to .org) provides citizens and groups with the assistance
this global challenge without public acceptance of the they need to take an active role in the stewardship of
scientific facts. This is why the Santa Aguila Foun- North Carolina’s coastal water quality and natural
dation supports this book. The more knowledgeable resources.
 We dedicate this book to

All of our families

Melanie Taylor, a profile in courage

Dana H. Dixon, a dedicated conservationist

 Contents

Preface xi

1. Global Change and the Greenhouse Earth 1

2. The Impact of Global Change 15

3. Doubts, Uncertainties, and Qualms 29

4. The Manufacture of Dissent The Global Warming Denial Lobby 42

5. The Future of Ice 53

6. Global Change in the Oceans 69

7. Disappearing Civilizations 84

8. Global Change in the Biosphere 98

9. Plan B  Geoengineering to the Rescue? 110

About the Art 123

Bibliogr aphy 131

Index 139
 Preface

Global change is upon us. Of this become so politically polarized as to be-

there is no doubt among those who ob- come a partisan issue. Never in our history
serve the Earth. But there are two separate have the basic tenets and procedures of
issues. Is the Earth warming? And are we science been so widely questioned by the
responsible? Among the American public, a news media. And all this because the sci-
thin majority are convinced that the planet entific community is the bearer of the bad
is changing. Even more believe that we hu- news that we as a society are producing too
mans have nothing to do with this change. much carbon dioxide—a conclusion that is
Over the next fifty to a hundred years, viewed as a threat to the future of the en-
global change has to be the greatest eco- ergy industry.
nomic and environmental threat facing For the world’s scientific community to
the planet. For example, if glaciologists become galvanized on a socially important
are even partly right, many of the world’s and politically charged issue such as cli-
coastal cities will be in trouble because of mate change is an extraordinary event in
sea level rise caused by melting ice sheets itself. Traditionally scientists have kept to
and the warming ocean, and millions of themselves, kept their noses to the grind-
people will be environmental refugees, dis- stone and their eyes to the microscope,
placed from the deltas of the world’s major studying things that industry needed,
rivers. Yet we continue to be bogged down or worrying about (according to Charles
by the dilatory tactics of those who deny Wilson, former president of General Mo-
that the threat even exists. Of the two ma- tors) why the grass is green and the sky is
jor political parties in America, one holds blue! This foray into the politicized world
that global change is nothing to be worried of climate change debate by a large portion
about and may even be a fraud, and the of the world scientific community has not
other holds that it’s probably real, but not always gone well. The United Nations In-
real enough for immediate, concrete action. tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
These are strange times. Never in our the group responsible for the major reports
nation’s history has a question of science documenting the threat, has become the
x preface

lightning rod for a small army of deniers. However, in the book we will usually refer to
Scientists, usually happy to publish articles the overall phenomenon as global change and
in academic journals largely unnoticed by use the term global warming mainly when
the public, now find themselves the targets we are discussing temperature changes
of politically based criticism. per se.
While some industrialized nations such We wrote this book because we felt that
as the United States have been slow or re- the general public had few resources that
luctant to recognize the threat of climate explain briefly, simply, and in layperson’s
change, other, smaller countries already language the science of global change. It
threatened by global warming have taken is intended as a primer of global change. It is
action. Bhutan, a tiny country of 700,000 not illustrated by the usual graphs, maps,
souls between India and China, may be the and tables, but instead by the batiks on
most global-­c hange-­conscious of all. Bhu- silk of Mary Edna Fraser. We hope that her
tan is taking major planning steps to move batiks will make the book palatable to the
villages as their glacial water supply dries most scientifically challenged among us,
up, while next door, China is still in a state and bring it to the attention of an audience
of denial concerning imminent ground­ that doesn’t always see books on science.
water and inundation problems in Shang- Throughout the book, we take pains to
hai from the sea level rise. point out that there are many uncertain-
A note about terminology: The phenom- ties about future climate change and that
enon of global changes related to increased some of the supporting data are limited.
atmospheric carbon dioxide and other Although the basic assumptions are solid,
greenhouse gases has been widely referred there is, as in the steering wheel of an old
to as global warming. However, within the car, some play in them. We even argue that
scientific community there is concern that mathematical models, the main basis of
referring just to the warming downplays many of the important conclusions, must
the large number of other events that are be viewed with caution (because they are
caused by the warming. Some scientists based on the same assumptions with play!).
prefer the term global climate change. This At the end of each chapter we have a sec-
term suffers from a similar shortcoming, tion where we state some of the deniers’ be-
in that sea level rise, retreating glaciers liefs and proceed to explain why they (usu-
and ice sheets, melting permafrost, plant ally but not always) are wrong.
and animal displacements and extinc- Orrin Pilkey, one of the authors, is a pro­
tions, and warming oceans are not climate fessor emeritus from Duke University whose
changes. We use the term “global climate long career in marine and coastal science
change” in our title because we believe it has led him to produce many publications
will be widely recognizable by our readers. in his realm of knowledge. Keith Pilkey, his
 preface xi

son and co-­author, is an attorney with the help from Reynolds Smith, Cecelia Dailey,
Social Security Administration who has long Mary Edna Fraser, and Gina Longo. We are
been interested in the role of skeptics in our very grateful for the backing of all of our
society’s global change debate. Mary Edna families.
Fraser is an artist from Charleston, South Mary Edna Fraser would like to
Carolina, specializing in coastal scenes. Her recognize the help of the National Aero-
career has led her to photograph the eastern nautics and Space Administration (nasa),
seaboard of the United States and coastlines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
abroad, often from the cockpit of planes she Administration (noaa), the Heinz Center,
is piloting with an instructor by her side. She the North Carolina Museum of Natural
translates the photographic images onto Sciences, Emory University, the McKissick
silk in the ancient art of batik. Museum, the Flaten Art Museum, the Mc-
Clellanville Arts Center, the Hickory Mu-
Orrin and Keith Pilkey would like seum of Art, the University of Oklahoma,
to thank a number of people who helped the Barrier Island Center, the Florence Mu-
them to understand some aspects of global seum of Art, Science and History, and the
change far from their own specialties and Peabody Essex Museum. Also, she is grate-
to navigate the shoals of climate change ful to her patrons, including Mark and Clar-
denial. We are particularly grateful to Paul inda Abdelnour, Ingrid Abendroth, Norman
Baker, Bruce Corliss, Fred Dobson, Philip and Chris Lorusso, Rick McKee and Tara
Froelich, Peter Haff, Miles Hayes, Duncan Lowry, John and Betty Jean Payne, Norton
Heron, Joe Kelley, Susan Lozier, Stephen and Mindy Seltzer, Mary Lou Stevenson,
Mako, Brad Murray, Bill Neal, and Stan and Marty and Cathy Wice. She thanks her
Riggs; Dana Beach of the Coastal Conserva- assistant, Cecelia Dailey, her intern Chase
tion League; and Todd Miller of the North Cribb, Reynolds Smith, Norma Longo, Jill
Caro­lina Coastal Federation. Ewald and Mengchi Ho, who helped with
We are particularly grateful to Reynolds edits; Rick Rhodes and Tim Steele, for pho-
Smith, who came up with the idea for this tography and digital files; her husband John
book. We thank Sharlene Pilkey for spend- Sperry, who offered untiring support; and
ing many hours doing internet research on the members of her family, who made her
a variety of topics. We thank Norma Longo life as an artist possible. Mary Edna appre-
for helping us at great length with organi- ciates the decades of friendship and educa-
zation and references, proofreading, and tion from her “boss” Orrin Pilkey.
copyediting. We also received copyediting
 global Change and
the greenhouse earth 1

The Greenhouse Effect It seems that nothing is new under the

through the Ages sun. The temperature of the Earth’s atmo-
sphere, just like the level of the sea, has
Ever since water accumulated to form the varied considerably over time. Most of the
ocean, not long after the Earth formed 4.6 changes have occurred because of varia-
billion years ago, the level of the sea has tions in the amount of heat received from
been moving up and down. It was only the Sun, which are related to solar activity
in recent millennia, however, that such and the orientation of the Earth relative to
changes have affected human beings. For the Sun.
example, a few miles off the coast of Maine, Atmospheric temperature is also affected
fishers have been trawling up spear points, by the concentration of what scientists
arrowheads, and other stone implements have termed greenhouse gases in the at-
from a submerged village site, which was mosphere. The greenhouse effect makes life
occupied eight to eleven thousand years on Earth possible. As solar radiation warms
ago. The people who lived at this site, now the Earth’s surface, a portion of the Earth’s
under a hundred feet of water, had to pick atmosphere acts like a greenhouse and re-
up and move inland as the sea level rose tains heat that would otherwise be lost back
and the shoreline moved past their village. to space.
Almost certainly it wasn’t just the gradual At the time of the dinosaurs, the Earth’s
flooding by the rising sea that forced them temperature was much warmer. Now, 65
to flee. Probably it was a storm or two that million years after the last dinosaur died,
penetrated further inland than usual, or we have reached a very cool period known
perhaps their drinking water became too as the Ice Age. Even though we are cur-
salty because of the higher sea level. The rently in an interglacial time, between ad-
effort required to move a prehistoric Native vances of the great ice sheets, it is a time
American village inland is a far cry from that is too cool for cold-­blooded dinosaurs
what would be required to relocate today’s in most of the places where they previously
New England coastal settlements. lived.
2 The Greenhouse E arth

Sea level and atmospheric temperature While the greenhouse effect is natural
are often related. When global tempera- and necessary for human life, the funda-
tures cool, continental scale glaciers can mental problems are that human activities
form, and they can contain so much of have created an excess of greenhouse gases
what was once the ocean’s water that they in the atmosphere, and that the enhanced
cause drops in sea level as large as four hun- greenhouse effect has brought about global
dred feet. There have been at least seven warming at a rapid and accelerating rate.
major fluctuations of the sea over the last
two million years.
At present the Earth’s huge and ever The Greenhouse Gases
growing human population is affecting the
climate through (1) the emission of gases So, what exactly are the major greenhouse
that cause the Earth to act like a green- gases? The principal greenhouse gases
house; (2) the discharge of high concentra- whose presence in the atmosphere causes
tions of atmospheric particles called aero- warming are water vapor (H2O), carbon
sols; and (3) changes in land use. All three dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4), and nitrous
are interrelated and work in tandem to oxide (N2O). All the greenhouse gases are
change the Earth’s temperature. “trace gases”: that is, they all make up a
A real greenhouse works differently from very small part of the atmosphere. Carbon
the Earth’s atmosphere. Glass-­ enclosed dioxide is usually measured in parts per
greenhouses prevent winds from dispers- million (ppm). Present measurements in-
ing the heat created by the Sun’s rays. Thus dicate that there are around 390 molecules
the interior space retains heat. The atmo- per million molecules of air. Methane and
spheric greenhouse works because the nitrous oxide are measured as parts per
greenhouse gases allow short-­wavelength billion (ppb). Even water vapor is a minor
sunlight to pass through the atmosphere. constituent of the atmosphere—at most a
This radiation is converted to heat, which few percent.
warms the Earth’s atmosphere, causing it to Yet water vapor is responsible for most
emit longer-­wavelength infrared radiation of the greenhouse effect, accounting for be-
back into space. The greenhouse gases ab- tween 36% and 66% of the warming (aver-
sorb some of this infrared radiation head- age of 60% globally), but it is more or less
ing out into space, which in turn heats up a long-­term constant in the greenhouse
the Earth’s atmosphere even more. Eventu- equation. That is, it is not directly respon-
ally the infrared rays escape the Earth, but sible for the global climate change that the
the more greenhouse gases there are in the Earth is experiencing. Unlike the other
atmosphere, the more radiation is trapped, greenhouse gases, which are uniformly
resulting in increased temperatures. distributed in the atmosphere, water vapor
 Earthscaping
The Earth is warming: of this there is no doubt. The evidence that is there for all to see includes the melt­
ing ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the melting mountain glaciers, the shrinking of both permafrost
and Arctic sea ice, the rising sea levels and the warming oceans. Global climate change is a problem that our
society must address sooner rather than later.
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