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Regression Analysis

With the rise of “big data,” there is an increasing demand to learn the skills needed to undertake sound
quantitative analysis without requiring students to spend too much time on high-level math and
proofs. This book provides an efficient alternative approach, with more time devoted to the practical
aspects of regression analysis and how to recognize the most common pitfalls.
By doing so, the book will better prepare readers for conducting, interpreting, and assessing
regression analyses, while simultaneously making the material simpler and more enjoyable to learn.
Logical and practical in approach, Regression Analysis teaches: (1) the tools for conducting regressions;
(2) the concepts needed to design optimal regression models (based on avoiding the pitfalls); and
(3) the proper interpretations of regressions. Furthermore, this book emphasizes honesty in research,
with a prevalent lesson being that statistical significance is not the goal of research.
This book is an ideal introduction to regression analysis for anyone learning quantitative methods
in the social sciences, business, medicine, and data analytics. It will also appeal to researchers and
academics looking to better understand what regressions do, what their limitations are, and what they
can tell us. This will be the most engaging book on regression analysis (or Econometrics) you will
ever read!

Jeremy Arkes is Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy,
Naval Postgraduate School, U.S.A. He conducts research in a variety of fields, with a focus on
military-manpower policy, substance-use policy, determinants of youth outcomes, sports economics,
and using sports outcomes to make inferences on human behavior.
Regression Analysis
A Practical Introduction

Jeremy Arkes
First published 2019
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2019 Jeremy Arkes
The right of Jeremy Arkes to be identified as author of this work has been asserted
by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and
Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any
information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the
publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent
to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN: 978-1-138-54140-5 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-138-54143-6 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-351-01109-9 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Apex CoVantage, LLC

Visit the eResources: www.routledge.com/9781138541405

To my mother, Judy Arkes (1941–2014). She was always a voice of love,
support, and reason.
 Contents

List of figures xi
List of tables xiii
About the author xv
Preface xvi
Acknowledgments xviii
List of abbreviations xix

1 Introduction 1
1.1 The problem 2
1.2 The purpose of research 3
1.3 What causes problems in the research process? 4
1.4 About this book 7
1.5 The most important sections in this book 9
1.6 Quantitative vs. qualitative research 10
1.7 Stata and R code 11
1.8 Chapter summary 11

2 Regression analysis basics 13

2.1 What is a regression? 14
2.2 The four main objectives for regression analysis 15
2.3 The Simple Regression Model 17
2.4 How are regression lines determined? 21
2.5 The explanatory power of the regression 26
2.6 What contributes to slopes of regression lines? 29
2.7 Using residuals to gauge relative performance 30
2.8 Correlation vs. causation 32
2.9 The Multiple Regression Model 33
2.10 Assumptions of regression models 35
2.11 Calculating standardized effects to compare estimates 38
2.12 Causal effects are “average effects” 39
viii | Contents

2.13 Causal effects can change over time 40

2.14 A quick word on terminology for regression equations 41
2.15 Definitions and key concepts 42
2.16 Chapter summary 44

3 Essential tools for regression analysis 47

3.1 Using binary variables (how to make use of dummies) 47
3.2 Non-linear functional forms using OLS 50
3.3 Weighted regression models 57
3.4 Chapter summary 59

4 What does “holding other factors constant” mean? 61

4.1 Case studies to understand “holding other factors constant” 62
4.2 Using behind-the-curtains scenes to understand “holding other
factors constant” 68
4.3 Using dummy variables to understand “holding other factors constant” 72
4.4 Using Venn diagrams to understand “holding other factors constant” 76
4.5 Could controlling for other factors take you further from the true causal effect? 76
4.6 Application of “holding other factors constant” to the story of oat bran
and cholesterol 78
4.7 Chapter summary 80

5 Standard errors, hypothesis tests, p-values, and aliens 82

5.1 Setting up the problem for hypothesis tests 83
5.2 Hypothesis testing in regression analysis 86
5.3 The drawbacks of p-values and statistical significance 101
5.4 What the research on the hot hand in basketball tells us about the existence
of other life in the universe 104
5.5 What does an insignificant estimate tell you? 105
5.6 Statistical significance is not the goal 106
5.7 Chapter summary 107

6 What could go wrong when estimating causal effects? 111

6.1 How to judge a research study 113
6.2 Exogenous (good) variation vs. endogenous (bad) variation 114
6.3 Setting up the problem for estimating a causal effect 115
6.4 The big questions for what could bias the coefficient estimate 117
6.5 How to choose the best set of control variables (model selection) 146
6.6 What could bias the standard errors and how do you fix it? 149
6.7 What could affect the validity of the sample? 156
6.8 What model diagnostics should you do? 158
6.9 Make sure your regression analyses/interpretations do no harm 159
6.10 Applying the big questions to studies on estimating divorce effects on children 160
6.11 Applying the big questions to nutritional studies 161
6.12 Chapter summary: a review of the big questions163
 Contents | ix

7 Strategies for other regression objectives 169

7.1 Strategies for forecasting/predicting an outcome 169
7.2 Strategies for determining predictors of an outcome 172
7.3 Strategies for adjusting outcomes for various factors 176
7.4 Summary of the strategies for each regression objective 180

8 Methods to address biases 183

8.1 Fixed-effects 184
8.2 A thorough example of fixed effects 196
8.3 An alternative to the fixed-effects estimator 200
8.4 Random effects 201
8.5 First-differences 203
8.6 Difference-in-differences 207
8.7 Two-stage Least Squares (instrumental-variables) 211
8.8 Regression discontinuities 217
8.9 Case study: research on how divorce affects children 220
8.10 Knowing when to punt 225
8.11 Chapter summary 225

9 Other methods besides Ordinary Least Squares 231

9.1 Types of outcome variables 232
9.2 Dichotomous outcomes 233
9.3 Ordinal outcomes – ordered models 239
9.4 Categorical outcomes – Multinomial Logit Model 241
9.5 Censored outcomes – Tobit models 243
9.6 Count variables – Negative Binomial and Poisson models 245
9.7 Duration models 247
9.8 Chapter summary 250

10 Time-series models 252

10.1 The components of a time-series variable 253
10.2 Autocorrelation 253
10.3 Autoregressive models 256
10.4 Distributed-lag models 262
10.5 Consequences of and tests for autocorrelation 266
10.6 Stationarity 269
10.7 Vector Autoregression 274
10.8 Forecasting with time series 275
10.9 Chapter summary 279

11 Some really interesting research 281

11.1 Can discrimination be a self-fulfilling prophecy? 281
11.2 Does Medicaid participation improve health outcomes? 286
11.3 Estimating peer effects for academic outcomes 287
11.4 How much does a GED improve labor-market outcomes? 290
x | Contents

12 How to conduct a research project 293

12.1 Choosing a topic 294
12.2 Conducting the empirical part of the study 295
12.3 Writing the report 298

13 Summarizing thoughts 305

13.1 Be aware of your cognitive biases 305
13.2 What betrays trust in published studies 307
13.3 How to do a referee report responsibly 310
13.4 Summary of the most important points and interpretations 311
13.5 Final words of wisdom 313

Appendix of background statistical tools 315

A.1 Random variables and probability distributions 315
A.2 The normal distribution and other important distributions 322
A.3 Sampling distributions 324
A.4 Desired properties of estimators 328

Glossary 330
Index 339
 Figures

2.1 Scatterplot of years-of-schooling and income 15

2.2 Data points for Table 2.2 22
2.3 The data points relative to mean income for a four-observation regression 24
2.4 The regression line and residuals 25
2.5 Various combinations of R2 and regression slope 27
2.6 Average income by years-of-schooling 29
2.7 Wins and payroll, Major League Baseball, 2013 31
2.8 Summary of Chapter 2 45
3.1 Income by highest degree 50
3.2 Notional example of study hours and test score 54
3.3 Predicted values for the linear, quadratic, and spline models 57
4.1a Flow chart showing mechanisms for lemon-tree example when excluding “height” 64
4.1b Flow chart showing mechanisms for lemon-tree example when including “height” 64
4.2 Mechanisms for how tipping the first domino affects whether the last domino falls 67
4.3a The behind-the-curtains operations of a regression 69
4.3b What happens behind the curtains when variables are controlled for 70
4.4 Using Venn diagrams to demonstrate “holding other factors constant” 77
4.5 Notional scatterplot of oat-bran consumption and cholesterol 78
5.1 Hypothesis test example for a sample mean 85
5.2 Venn diagrams showing determinants of standard errors 90
5.3 Rejection region for Student’s t-distribution (d.f. = 2762) 93
5.4 Rejection region for a one-sided hypothesis test, Student’s t-distribution (d.f. = 2762) 96
5.5 Summary of Chapter 5 108
6.1 A demonstration of reverse causality with marijuana use and depression 118
6.2 Demonstrating reverse causality in Exogenous and Endogenous Worlds 120
6.3 Reverse causality in football 122
6.4 Omitted-variables bias for the relationship between oat bran and cholesterol 125
6.5 What people eat for breakfast 129
6.6 A demonstration of self-selection bias 132
6.7 Notional example to demonstrate measurement error 135
xii | Figures

6.8 Demonstration of mediating factors 141

6.9 What happens if one controls for a mediating factor 143
6.10 The effect of campaign donations on voting behavior 144
6.11 Using Venn diagrams to demonstrate multicollinearity 150
6.12 A notional example of homoskedasticity 153
6.13 A sample of real data on AFQT and income, demonstrating heteroskedasticity 153
8.1a The cross-sectional representation of the class-size and instructor-evaluation issue 198
8.1b The fixed-effects representation of the class-size and instructor-evaluation issue 198
8.2 The first-difference model for the unemployment rate and teen marijuana use 205
8.3 Difference-in-difference notional example 208
8.4 The problem with omitted variables for IV method setup 212
8.5 The two-stage-least-squares method 213
8.6 Graphical representation of a notional regression-discontinuity model 218
9.1 Frequency of number of children born in first 5 years of NLSY survey 246
10.1 Decomposition of a time-series variable (quarterly gas prices) 254
10.2 San Antonio Spurs winning percentage and change in winning percentage, by year 255
10.3 President Trump’s weekly tweets while president (through April 2018) 256
10.4a Scatterplot of current versus lagged winning percentage for the Spurs 259
10.4b Scatterplot of current versus lagged change in winning percentage for the Spurs 259
10.5a Autocorrelation function (ACF) of the number of weekly Trump tweets 261
10.5b Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the number of weekly Trump tweets 261
10.6a The autocorrelation function for U.S. wine consumption 262
10.6b The partial autocorrelation function for U.S. wine consumption 263
10.7a Daily prices for the S&P 500 and oil, 1990–94 272
10.7b Daily prices for the S&P 500 and oil, 2010–14 273
A.1 Probability distribution for the value of a roll of a die 316
A.2 Probability density function of a (continuous) uniform distribution 317
A.3 A cumulative distribution function for a uniform distribution 317
A.4 A non-standard continuous distribution 318
A.5 Sampling distributions of the sample mean for various sample sizes
(for the Central Limit Theorem) 326
 Tables

2.1 The four main objectives of regression analysis and the questions addressed 16
2.2 Four-observation example of education and income 21
2.3 Predicted values and residuals for the four-observation sample 25
2.4 A summary of regression assumptions, how reasonable they are, and what action to take 38
2.5 Standardized effect sizes of determinants of the Romanian Peasant Rebellion 39
3.1 Interpretations based on logarithmic forms of the X and Y variables 53
3.2 A comparison of models using various weighting schemes 59
4.1 A summary of the two cases for the lemon-tree example 65
4.2 Notional data on dominos chains to understand “holding other factors constant” 66
4.3 Demonstrating coefficient estimates in the presence of dummy variables 74
4.4 Average income for each group 75
4.5 Average real GDP growth (and defined years) for each group 76
5.1 Stata output for regression of 2003 income on various factors 87
5.2 R output for regression of 2003 income on various factors 88
5.3 The probability that an estimated relationship is real for various p-values and prior
probabilities 102
6.1 Exogenous and endogenous variation in an explanatory variable 115
6.2 Demonstration of the biases from reverse causality 121
6.3 Likely biased (from omitted-variables bias) estimates of top marginal tax rates on
the unemployment rate and real GDP growth rate, 1991–2017 126
6.4 An example for self-selection bias 131
6.5 Regression models demonstrating the effects of measurement error 136
6.6 The effects of state tax rates on Gross State Product growth (n = 1440), 1980–2009 146
6.7 Criteria to use and not to use for determining what control variables to include 148
6.8 Demonstrating the effects of multicollinearity (dependent variable = 2003 income) 150
6.9 Results on how the economy affects alcohol use – from Ruhm and Black (2002) 151
6.10 The correction for heteroskedasticity (n = 2772) 154
6.11 A summary of the 6 big questions 164
7.1 Predicting health status at age 50 for females 174
7.2 Strategies and which big questions need to be asked for the regression objectives 180
xiv | Tables

8.1 The effects of class size on average instructor evaluation from Bedard and Kuhn (2008) 191
8.2 Course characteristics in the simulation 197
8.3 Coefficient estimates on class-size for various models, plus variance within groups 199
8.4 A comparison of a standard and regression-weighted fixed-effects model 201
8.5 The effects of the unemployment rate on youth marijuana use 206
8.6 Summarizing results from Card and Krueger’s (1994) Table 3 (Numbers represent
average FTE workers at fast-food establishments) 210
8.7 The effectiveness and applicability of the methods to address non-random
explanatory variables 226
9.1 Determinants of “whether the youth used marijuana in past 30 days,” using three
different probability models 236
9.2 Demonstration of odds ratios for the probability of marijuana use 238
9.3 Ordered Probit results for “health at age 40” (n = 7705) 240
9.4 Marginal effects from Ordered Probit Model 240
9.5 Coefficient estimates of a marital disruption on problem behavior 244
9.6 Results from Negative Binomial, Poisson, and OLS 247
9.7 Cox proportional-hazards model for the effects of state unemployment rates on
the probability of a couple divorcing (n = 95,472) 249
10.1 Autoregressive models for President Trump weekly tweets 258
10.2 AR(1) model for the Spurs winning percentage and change in winning percentage 260
10.3 The relationship between approval ratings and tweets for President Trump 264
10.4 Granger Causality model for Trump’s weekly tweets and approval rating 265
10.5 Dickey-Fuller tests for nonstationarity 273
10.6 The relationship between oil prices and the S&P 500 index 273
10.7 Vector Autoregression (VAR) for Trump tweets and approval 275
10.8 ARIMA models for daily S&P 500, 2010–14 277
10.9 Forecasts and statistics for first 5 trading days of 2015 for the ARIMA(1,1,1) model 278
11.1 Key results from Glover et al. (2017), Tables III and IV 285
11.2 Summary of the main results from Carrell et al. (2009), Table 3 290
A.1 Example of a joint probability distribution 320
 About the author

Jeremy Arkes grew up in Amherst, MA, in the midst of the fields of Amherst College. He left this
bucolic setting to attend Georgetown University for his undergraduate studies and to later earn a Ph.D.
in Economics from the University of Wisconsin. He spent his first ten years after graduate school
working for think tanks: The Center for Naval Analyses (Alexandria, VA) and RAND C ­ orporation
(Santa Monica, CA). His main focus was on military-manpower research, but he sprouted out to other
fields, such as the areas of substance use and divorce effects on children.
Since 2007, he has been teaching Economics and Applied (Regression) Analysis of Military
­Manpower in the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School in
Monterey, California. At NPS, besides continuing to conduct research in military manpower, he has
added a line of research that uses sports outcomes to make inferences on human behavior.
When not estimating regression models or writing about them, Dr. Arkes plays basketball and
racquetball, and he hikes around the Big Sur and California Central Coast area with his wife, Jennifer.
And, whenever they get a chance, he and Jennifer like to venture off to New England, the Rockies,
the Cascades, British Columbia, Hawaii, or Alaska for hiking adventures.
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