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Published online by Cambridge University Press
 Anthem Press
An imprint of Wimbledon Publishing Company
www​.anthempress​.com

This edition first published in UK and USA 2023

by ANTHEM PRESS
75–76 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8HA, UK
or PO Box 9779, London SW19 7ZG, UK
and
244 Madison Ave #116, New York, NY 10016, USA

© 2023 Kenneth A. Reinert

The author asserts the moral right to be identified as the author of this work.

All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved
above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced
into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means
(electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the
prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher
of this book.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2023934489

A catalog record for this book has been requested.

ISBN-13: 978-1-83998-220-0 (Hbk)

ISBN-10: 1-83998-220-9 (Hbk)

This title is also available as an e-book.

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Published online by Cambridge University Press
 CONTENTS

Preface viii
List of Abbreviations x

1. Albert Hirschman’s Forgotten Book 1

2. Power and Plenty 9
3. Industry and War 25
4. Zero-Sum Thinking 43
5. Battleground WTO 57
6. The Ethnicity Trap 77
7. The Brexit Blunder 99
8. Pandemic Nationalism 117
9. Techno-Nationalism 137
10. Beyond Zero Sum 157

Afterword 173
Bibliography 175
Notes 193
Index 219

Published online by Cambridge University Press

 PREFACE

In 2014, I began to write a book entitled No Small Hope about the universal
provision of basic goods and services, drawing upon economics, ethics and
human rights theory. In the middle of this project, the world began to shift. In
2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and Donald
Trump was elected president of the United States. Both these developments
reflected economic nationalist and ethnonationalist political platforms. In
2018, I presented the No Small Hope book at the World Trade Organization’s
annual public forum. This was somewhat ironic because President Trump
was beginning a full-scale assault on that institution, attempting to hobble the
multilateral trading system he loathed.
About a year later, COVID-19 appeared on the global scene, setting off
further expressions of economic nationalism, exacerbating an already fraught
US–China relationship, and causing 15 million excess deaths worldwide.
In the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson was “getting Brexit done,” while
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi was ramping up his ethnonational-
ist Hindutva movement. During 2020 and 2021, the pandemic ravaged the
world, fraying economic relations. In January 2021, US president Trump
attempted to overthrow the country’s electoral process while Brexit came
into effect. A little over a year later, Russia invaded Ukraine in another ill-
considered nationalist spasm.
Whereas No Small Hope was a statement of what could be, this book is
a statement of what is, and it is decidedly less hopeful. The main message
is that economic nationalism is often a recipe for worsened economic wel-
fare, strained international relations, enflamed ethnic tensions, global public
health setbacks and reduced effective innovation. Behind economic national-
ism lies a zero-sum mindset that misapprehends many realities and thereby
sets back the important project of human flourishing. This zero-sum mindset,
however, is an ever-tempting default that must be overcome for continued
forward progress. This book argues that we must resist its lure and recognize
the possibility of non-zero-sum outcomes as embedded in the principle of

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 Preface ix

multilateralism. This lesson was painfully learned after World War II and
unfortunately needs to be learned again.
Some small fragments of this book were published in editorial form in the
US-based The Hill, and I would like to thank The Hill’s Daniel Allott for his
support in that process. Without implicating them, I would also like to thank
my Schar School colleagues Des Dinan, Justin Gest, Mark Langevin, Jerry
Mayer and J. P. Singh for comments on specific sections of the book.
As this book was going into press, I stumbled upon a statement by the
trade economist and historian of economic thought Jacob Viner in his famous
1950 monograph The Customs Union Issue. Viner states: “The power of nation-
alist sentiment can override all other considerations; it can dominate the
minds of a people, and dictate the policies of government, even when in every
possible way […] it is in sharp conflict with what […] are in fact the basic
economic interests of the people in question.” These words reverberate today
perhaps even more so than when they were first written.
Renewed hope requires that we go beyond zero-sum thinking, reembrace
some degree of multilateralism, and attend to global public goods provision. I
hope that, in some small way, this book makes these possibilities more likely.

Published online by Cambridge University Press

 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AI Artificial intelligence
ARIA Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (United Kingdom)
ARPA Advanced Research Projects Agency (United States)
ASCM Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures
BATNA Best alternative to a negotiated agreement
BJP Bharatiya Janata Party (India)
CCP Chinese Communist Party
COMAC Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China
COVAX COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access
CPAC Conservative Political Action Committee (United States)
CPI Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (Brazil)
CSI Coalition of Service Industries (United States)
DAO Discrete analog and other (semiconductors)
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (United States)
DFT Development-facilitation tariff
DPA Defense Production Act (United States)
DSU Dispute Settlement Understanding
EC European Community
ECJ European Court of Justice
EDA Electronic design automation (semiconductors)
EDPS Environmentally displaced persons
EEC European Economic Community
EIC British East India Company
EMU European Monetary Union
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI Foreign direct investment
G7 Group of 7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US)
GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GSP Generalized System of Preferences

Published online by Cambridge University Press

 List of Abbreviations xi

GVCS Global value chains

ICT Information and communication technologies
IP Intellectual property
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITO International Trade Organization
LCD Liquid crystal display
LMICS Low- and middle-income countries
MFN Most-favored nation
MNE Multinational enterprise
MPIA Multiparty Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement
MTNS Multilateral trade negotiations
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NGO Nongovernmental organizations
NICS Newly industrialized countries
OIHP Office International d’Hygiène Publique
OSEC Organisation of Semiconductor Exporting Countries
PAHO Pan-American Health Organization
PLA People’s Liberation Army (China)
PPE Personal protective equipment
R&D Research and Development
RCUK Research Councils United Kingdom
RSS Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (India)
SMIC Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company
(China)
SNP Scottish National Party
SOE State-owned enterprise
SPRIN-D Federal Agency for Disruptive Innovation (Germany)
TCA (UK–EU) Trade and Cooperation Agreement
TEU Treaty on European Union
TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership
TRIPS Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property
Rights
TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
TTC EU–US Trade and Technology Council
UKIP United Kingdom Independence Party
UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
USMCA United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement
VOC Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie (Dutch East India
Company)
WHA World Health Assembly
WHO World Health Organization
WTO World Trade Organization

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Published online by Cambridge University Press
 Chapter 1
ALBERT HIRSCHMAN’S
FORGOTTEN BOOK

In 1941, a little-known economist by the name of Albert Hirschman arrived

at the University of California, Berkeley, on a fellowship. He was 25 years old
and a Jewish German refugee. In the early 1930s, as Hitler rose to power,
Hirschman had been active in the German Socialist Party but subsequently
fled Berlin for Paris. From there, he went to study at the London School of
Economics. Completing his studies at LSE, Hirschman went to Barcelona
to fight in the Spanish Civil War. Then to Trieste, Italy, for doctoral work in
economics and back to Paris to enlist in the French army. Peddling part of the
way on a stolen bicycle, he later fled France over the Pyrenees and went on to
Lisbon for his escape from European fascism.1
While in Berkeley, Albert Hirschman met his wife and wrote a book. He
would go on to write many more books as he became increasingly famous,
and this first book has been almost forgotten. It is entitled National Power and
the Structure of Foreign Trade and represents a refugee economist’s struggle with
the economics of fascism. Indeed, the book was in part a response to Herman
Göring’s famous statement that “guns will make us powerful; butter will only
make us fat.” As such, it was a contribution to a centuries-long argument in
economics between “power” and “plenty” and still has relevance for us today.
The objective Hirschman set out for himself in National Power was “a
systematic exposition of the question of why and how foreign trade might
become […] an instrument of national power policy.”2 To address this, he
engaged in novel statistical analysis of Nazi trade relations in the pursuit of
national power. This analysis led him to the following conclusion:3

The Nazis have […] shown us the tremendous power potentialities

inherent in international economic relations, just as they have given us
the first practical demonstration of the powers of propaganda. It is not
possible to ignore […] these relatively new powers of men over men; the
only alternative open to us is to prevent their use for the purposes of war

Published online by Cambridge University Press

 2 The Lure of Economic Nationalism

and enslavement and to make them work for our own purposes of peace
and welfare.

Consequently, Hirschman called for “a frontal attack upon the institution

which is at the root of the possible use of international economic relations
for national power aims—the institution of national economic sovereignty.”4
His ultimate policy conclusion was that, given the power aspects of interna-
tional trade, trade autonomy must be limited and placed in an international
institutional framework.5 Sovereignty needs to give way a bit for “peace and
welfare.”
Such an effort was to soon take place but not because of Hirschman’s
book.6 The process began in 1945 when the United States proposed the
establishment of an International Trade Organization (ITO). This led to
23 countries meeting in Geneva to sign a General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade (GATT) based on a draft of the ITO charter. The ITO charter itself
was finalized in 1948 at a meeting of 56 countries in Havana, Cuba, but in
1950, the United States walked away from the ITO plan. The world was left
with a trade agreement, but no legal international organization to go along
with it, and an improvisational GATT Secretariat grew around the GATT.
Nonetheless, Hirschman’s vision of placing trade sovereignty within an inter-
national institutional framework was partially realized.
Despite its incomplete start, the GATT had some real success. Between
1946 and 1994, it provided a forum for numerous “rounds” of multilateral
trade negotiations (MTNs). These GATT-sponsored rounds reduced tariffs
among member countries in many sectors. As a result, the weighted-average
tariff on manufactured products imposed by high-income countries fell from
approximately 20 percent to approximately 5 percent.7 This process and the
GATT’s multilateral institutional structure were historically unprecedented.
In 1995, the GATT became the World Trade Organization (WTO), real-
izing the original ITO idea. The WTO took its place alongside two other
international organizations created in the aftermath of the war that Albert
Hirschman escaped, namely the International Monetary Fund and the World
Bank. These entities provided an institutional structure for an evolving global
economy: the WTO in the realm of trade, the IMF in the realm of monetary
affairs and the World Bank in the realm of development finance. Given their
inevitable imperfections, it is important to remember that they are all prod-
ucts of war and were devised in the hope of preventing future catastrophes,
both economic and political.
There is also a recognition that, despite whatever reduction in protection
achieved under the GATT/WTO system, its real benefits have been the ones
anticipated by Albert Hirschman in National Power, namely, the global public

Published online by Cambridge University Press

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