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 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POLAR REGIONS

The polar regions have experienced some remarkable environmental changes in recent
decades, such as the Antarctic ozone hole, the loss of large amounts of sea ice from the
Arctic Ocean and major warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. The polar regions are also
predicted to warm more than any other region on Earth over the next century if greenhouse
gas concentrations continue to rise. Yet trying to separate natural climate variability from
anthropogenic forcing still presents many problems. This book presents a thorough review
of how the polar climates have changed over the last million years and sets recent changes
within the long-term perspective, as determined from ice and ocean sediment cores. The
approach taken is highly cross-disciplinary and the close links between the atmosphere,
ocean and ice at high latitudes are stressed. The volume will be invaluable for researchers
and advanced students in polar science, climatology, global change, meteorology, ocean-
ography and glaciology.

John T urner is a research scientist at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK,
where he leads a project investigating recent Antarctic climate change and how it may
change over the next century. He has had a long involvement with the Scientific Committee
on Antarctic Research (SCAR): he was the Chief Officer of the Physical Sciences Standing
Scientific Group from 2002 to 2006 and chaired the steering committee of the SCAR
programme on Antarctica and the Global Climate System from 2005 to 2008. He is the
co-author of Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology (1997) and Polar Lows: Mesoscale
Weather Systems in the Polar Regions (2003), both of which are published by Cambridge
University Press. He was awarded the International Journal of Climatology Prize of the
Royal Meteorological Society in 2005.
G areth J. M arshall is a climatologist at the British Antarctic Survey where he is the
Climate programme coordinator. He has worked at BAS since 1995 after completing his
PhD at the University of Cambridge. His research has included field work in both polar
regions and he has contributed to more than 50 scientific papers. Recently, he was a
corresponding author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report. He is also a member of the World Climate Research Programme
CLIVAR Southern Ocean panel, which addresses climate variability and predictability in
this region.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POLAR
REGIONS

JOHN TURNER
British Antarctic Survey

AND

GARETH J. MARSHALL
British Antarctic Survey
 cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521850100

© John Turner and Gareth J. Marshall 2011

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2011

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

Turner, J. (John)
Climate change in the polar regions / John Turner and Gareth J. Marshall.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-85010-0 (hardback)
1. Climatic changes – z Polar regions – History. 2. Meteorology – Polar regions – Observations.
3. Climatic changes – Environmental aspects – Polar regions. 4. Sea ice – Polar regions.
5. Global warming – Polar regions. I. Marshall, Gareth. II. Title.
QC903.2.P73T87 2011
551.6911–dc22
2010052384

ISBN 978-0-521-85010-0 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to
in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 Contents

Preface page ix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The environment of the polar regions 1
1.2 The role of the polar regions in the global climate system 9
1.3 Possible implications of high latitude climate change 12
2 Polar climate data and models 16
2.1 Introduction 16
2.2 Instrumental observations 17
2.3 Meteorological analysis fields 28
2.4 Remotely sensed data 36
2.5 Proxy climate data 42
2.6 Models 51
3 The high latitude climates and mechanisms of change 61
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 Factors influencing the broadscale climates of the polar regions 63
3.3 Processes of the high latitude climates 71
3.4 The mechanisms of high latitude climate change 80
3.5 Atmospheric circulation 114
3.6 Temperature 126
3.7 Cloud and precipitation 132
3.8 Sea ice 142
3.9 The ocean circulation 154
3.10 Concluding remarks 161
4 The last million years 162
4.1 Introduction 162
4.2 The Arctic 164
4.3 The Antarctic 181
4.4 Linking high latitude climate change in the two hemispheres 190

v
vi Contents

5 The Holocene 194

5.1 Introduction 194
5.2 Forcing of the climate system during the Holocene 197
5.3 Atmospheric circulation 202
5.4 Temperature 207
5.5 The ocean circulation 234
5.6 Sea ice and sea surface temperatures 238
5.7 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 245
5.8 The cryosphere, precipitation and sea level 247
5.9 Concluding remarks 254
6 The instrumental period 256
6.1 Introduction 256
6.2 The main meteorological elements 257
6.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation 270
6.4 The ocean environment 280
6.5 Sea ice 289
6.6 Snow cover 299
6.7 Permafrost 307
6.8 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 315
6.9 Terrestrial ice and sea level 320
6.10 Attribution of recent changes 331
6.11 Concluding remarks 334
7 Predictions for the next 100 years 336
7.1 Introduction 336
7.2 Possible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the IPCC
models 337
7.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation and the modes of climate
variability 340
7.4 The main meteorological elements 344
7.5 The ocean circulation and water masses 353
7.6 Sea ice 356
7.7 Seasonal snow cover and the terrestrial environment 361
7.8 Permafrost 362
7.9 Atmospheric gases and aerosols 364
7.10 Terrestrial ice, the ice shelves and sea level 366
7.11 Concluding remarks 372
8 Summary and future research needs 374
8.1 Introduction 374
8.2 Gaining improved understanding of past climate change 374
 Contents vii

8.3 Modelling the high latitude climate system 381

8.4 Data required 382
8.5 Concluding remarks 385
References 386
Index 428
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 Preface

The last few years have seen an unprecedented level of interest in the climate of the polar
regions. The discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, the reduction in extent of Arctic sea ice,
the disintegration of floating ice shelves around the Antarctic and the high levels of aerosols
reaching the Arctic have all been reported extensively in the media. This has been coupled
with climate model predictions showing that the high latitude areas will warm more than any
other region on Earth over the next century if ‘greenhouse gas’ concentrations continue to
rise. Yet some have pointed to rapid climatic fluctuations that have taken place in the polar
regions over the last few centuries and millennia and questioned whether the recent changes
that we have seen are not simply a result of natural climate variability. Hence the time is right
for a reappraisal of our understanding of recent high latitude climate change in the context of
increasing anthropogenic influence on the Earth and our greater understanding of the
reasons for past climate variability.
This book seeks to assess the climatic and environmental changes that have taken place
over the last century and set these in the context of our understanding of natural climate
variability in the pre-industrial period. We will draw on many of the new climate data sets
that have become available in recent years and also make use of the results of modelling
experiments. The last few years have seen great advances in our ability to observe, monitor
and model the present and past polar climates. In particular, the International Polar Year of
2007–08 gave us an unprecedented amount of data from the two polar regions and increased
our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change at high
latitudes.
The record of in-situ meteorological measurements from observatories and research
stations extends back about a century in many parts of the Arctic and about 50 years in
the Antarctic. These observations provide us with the most accurate measurements of
atmospheric conditions, yet the early observations are widely separated in many areas,
with few observations from the ocean areas. However, from the mid 1970s an increasing
number of observations became available from polar-orbiting satellites, which allowed the
production of increasingly reliable atmospheric analyses of the high latitude areas. Over the
past few decades the historical archive of in-situ and satellite observations have been
reprocessed using current data assimilation schemes to produce so-called ‘reanalysis’ data

ix
x Preface

sets. These provide a particularly valuable source for investigation of climate variability and
change in the polar regions over approximately the last 30 years.
In the pre-instrumental period the most valuable data on climate variability comes from
analysis of chemical species and accumulation in ice cores drilled on high latitude ice sheets.
Annual layers and/or specific events, such as volcanic eruptions, can often be identified in
these cores, allowing the dating of the core. Many short cores covering a few years to a few
decades have been collected in the Arctic and Antarctic but there are far fewer longer cores
extending back several centuries or more. However, the Vostok, Dome C and Dome F cores
from East Antarctica and several long cores collected from the plateau of Greenland provide
extremely valuable records of climatic conditions extending back over one or more ice ages.
The proxy data described above provide us with a reasonable picture of changes in
atmospheric conditions in the past, although with decreasing resolution in the earlier part
of the record. However, even today we do not have a synoptic picture of the distribution of
water masses across the world’s ocean and of ocean circulation, so understanding oceanic
conditions in the past presents a number of difficulties. Nevertheless, analysis of ocean
sediment cores has provided key information on past oceanic conditions to complement the
palaeoclimatic atmospheric data.
Complementary to the climate observations from the polar regions that are used in
investigating high latitude climate change are atmospheric and coupled atmosphere–ocean
models. These have developed rapidly over the last couple of decades from relatively coarse
resolution atmosphere-only models, which were only able to simulate the broadest features of
the polar climates, to complex, high-resolution models capable of simulating the non-linear
interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Moreover, they have been
applied to the present-day climate, and conditions during previous climatic regimes. They
are the only tool that we have for predicting how the Earth’s climate will evolve in the future.
In this volume we have used the data discussed above to describe past and possible future
climate scenarios for the polar regions. The emphasis is on explaining the forcing mecha-
nisms behind the observed changes and the difficulties in differentiating natural climate
variability from anthropogenic effects. A priority is to integrate our understanding of the
atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric changes and to present the polar regions within the
context of Earth System Science studies.
The geographical focus is obviously the Arctic and Antarctic, but research has shown that
there is a close, but non-linear, coupling between the climates of the polar regions and lower
latitudes. For example, recent analysis of chemical species in Antarctic ice cores has shown
that signals of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are present in temperature and
precipitation data, but that the high latitude response varies between different ENSO events.
So, where appropriate, we will not limit our coverage to just the polar regions, as defined as
the areas poleward of the Arctic and Antarctic circles, but set the climatic changes of the
polar regions in a global context.
Regarding the time period that the book should cover in terms of the past, we will obviously
deal with the period when in-situ meteorological observations are available, approximately the
last 100 years. The Holocene, which covers approximately the last 11.7 kyr, had roughly the
 Preface xi

same solar forcing as today and the Mid Holocene warm period was when some of the ice
shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula disintegrated in a similar fashion to the way they have
collapsed in recent decades. However, the most dramatic climatic changes at high latitudes
have been the ice ages, and the latest Antarctic ice cores provide a unique record of such events
through a significant part of the Pleistocene. We therefore felt that it would be logical to cover
the period covered by the Dome C ice core and consider the last million years. In terms of
future changes, we will deal with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
scenarios considering the next 100 years.
As a practical note on timing within this book, for periods of more than 2000 years ago we
will use the ‘before present (BP)’ notation, where the present is taken as AD 1950; thus the
start of the Holocene will be indicated as 11.7 kyr BP.
In the first chapter we provide an introduction to the environments of the Arctic and
Antarctic and consider the role of the polar regions in the global climate system. Although
the book does not generally deal with the societal consequences of climate change, here we
provide a brief account of the possible implications of major changes to the high latitude
icecaps.
Chapter 2 is concerned with the data and the models that we have available to investigate
the past and present polar climates and how they will evolve in the future. We review the
availability and quality of the instrumental observations and assess the climatic information
that can be derived from ice cores and ocean sediment cores. We also review the reliability of
the meteorological reanalysis fields.
In Chapter 3 we consider the mechanisms that are responsible for variability and change
in the high latitude climates on a range of timescales and explain why the climates of the two
polar regions have their particular form. We deal with the radiation regime, ice/atmosphere
feedbacks, the impact of the different land–sea distributions and orography in the two
hemispheres and, in particular, the role of the Arctic Ocean compared with the Antarctic
continent. We also present some mean meteorological/cryospheric fields for the two areas
based on data from recent decades. These provide reference fields for the discussion on past
conditions and future predictions.
Chapter 4 discusses our understanding of climate change over the last one million years,
which is the most recent half of the Pleistocene. We describe the broadscale climate changes
associated with the different ice ages and examine some of the more recent episodes of major
change in detail, including the peak of the most recent ice age, the Last Glacial Maximum.
The Holocene is dealt with in Chapter 5. For this period we have much more detailed
climatic information as there is greater temporal resolution in the available ice and ocean
sediment cores. We consider our current knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
along with changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice and the ice sheets.
The instrumental period of the last 50–100 years is covered in Chapter 6. Over this period
increasingly sophisticated observations have been obtained of many aspects of the polar
environment and these are used to examine variability and change. We consider the main
meteorological elements, as well as the ocean environment, sea ice and the icecaps.
xii Preface

Although a great deal of atmospheric and cryospheric data are now available, a major gap in
our knowledge is still the oceans, where many records are short.
Chapter 7 examines the prospects for the evolution of the polar climates over the next 100
years. The atmospheric and oceanic predictions come from state-of-the-art climate models,
many of which were used in the production of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Such models
can also provide information on future changes in sea ice extent; however, prediction of
changes in the major ice sheets is still very difficult to quantify.
In Chapter 8 we summarise our current understanding of high latitude climate change and
consider future research and data collection needs.
Many people have provided assistance in the production of this book. We would
particularly like to thank Drs Dominic Hodgson, Liz Thomas, Hugh Venables and Eric
Wolff for reviewing sections of the book. The figures were prepared by Phoebe Allan, Emma
Critchey, Katherine Dolan, Tony Phillips and Eleanor Tomlinson. Penny Goodearl obtained
permission to use selected figures. Peter Fretwell provided statistics on the area and
elevation of the Antarctic continent.
 1
Introduction

1.1 The environment of the polar regions

The polar regions can be defined in a number of ways, based on geographical, topographic
and even political factors. However, geometrically, the Arctic and Antarctic are considered
as the areas of the Earth poleward of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles, which are located at
latitudes of 66° 33′ 39″ north and south of the Equator (see maps on the end papers). These
areas experience at least one day each year when the Sun does not set, and one day when the
Sun is always below the horizon. At the poles themselves there is only one sunrise and one
sunset each year, which occurs on the equinoxes of 21 September and 21 March. Together
the Arctic and Antarctic comprise about 8% of the surface area of the Earth.
The regions of perpetual summer sunlight and winter darkness are present because the
Earth is tilted away from the plane of its orbit around the Sun by 23° 27′, resulting in the high
latitude areas having periods when they are orientated away from or towards the Sun. The tilt
of the Earth’s axis changes over long periods of time (millennia), resulting in variations in
the latitude of the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. The change in the tilt, along with slow
variations in the Earth’s orbit about the Sun, alter the amount of solar radiation arriving at
different parts of the Earth, which is a major factor in long-term, millennial-scale climate
variability. This subject is covered in depth in Section 3.4.
The Arctic Circle runs through the North Atlantic, southern Greenland, northern Canada,
central Alaska, northern Russia and northern Fennoscandia. The Antarctic Circle by contrast
is primarily located over the Southern Ocean, only crossing the Antarctic continent on
the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the northern edges of Enderby Land, Wilkes Land and
George V Land.
In the polar regions the Sun always has a relatively low elevation during the summer,
never reaching more than about 23° above the horizon. The instantaneous amount of solar
radiation received at the top of the atmosphere is therefore quite small, and much less than
occurs in tropical latitudes where the Sun is nearly overhead.
A number of factors influence the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed by the surface
and is therefore available to heat the ground or ocean, or melt snow and ice. Although the
Sun is low in the sky in summer, the high latitude atmosphere is relatively clear (especially
in the Antarctic) with few suspended particles (aerosols) that can scatter or reflect the

1
2 Introduction

incoming radiation. The amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is also quite low,
especially on the Antarctic Plateau, so the amount of radiation absorbed by this gas is
very limited. However, a major factor in influencing the amount of radiation arriving at the
surface is the length of the period of sunlight. On the Antarctic Plateau the long period of
continuous daylight, coupled with the clear, frequently cloud-free atmosphere means that
this region receives more solar radiation than anywhere else on Earth. Nevertheless, the
lowest temperature ever recorded at the surface of the Earth was at Vostok Station (78.5° S,
106.9° E, 3488 m) high on the plateau.
Although large amounts of solar radiation can be received at the surface in summer, much
of this insolation is reflected back to space because of the high albedo (reflectivity) of the
snow and ice surfaces. Freshly fallen snow can have a very high albedo of 90%, but this
drops as the snow pack ages, typically reaching values of 80%. Exposed glacier ice (known
as blue ice) typically has an albedo of around 70%. Snow with dust particles on the surface
will have a lower albedo, and as snow melts, gradually exposing the rock or soil surface
below, the albedo will gradually drop to that of bare ground, which is typically 15–20%. The
Antarctic Plateau is therefore a unique location, receiving large amounts of solar radiation in
summer, most of which is reflected back to space, resulting in the lowest summer temper-
atures on Earth.
In the sea ice zone the surface consists of a mix of ice floes that typically have an albedo of
70–80% and open water with an albedo of 10–15%. So the fractional ice cover is critical in
determining the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed by the surface. A major difference
between the Arctic and Antarctic is the amount of multi-year sea ice (sea ice that has
survived one summer) that is present. In the Antarctic most sea ice melts by the late summer,
with only small amounts of ice persisting into the following winter along the coast of East
Antarctic and over the western Weddell Sea. In the Arctic, however, there is a higher
proportion of multi-year ice present.
During periods when solar radiation is received, a number of different ‘polar feedback’
mechanisms can come into play, which can amplify small environmental changes. For
example, in the case where the ocean is partially covered by sea ice, once the fractional
ice cover has dropped to a certain level, enough solar radiation may be received to warm the
upper layers of the ocean, resulting in the rapid melting of the remaining sea ice in a region.
This is often the case along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, on the eastern side of the
Weddell Sea, Antarctica, where there can be a rapid expansion of the coastal polynya
(the ice-free region next to the coast) during December. A similar positive feedback is
found over snow-covered land areas during the high latitude spring, where the snow can
rapidly retreat once enough bare ground is exposed and sufficient heat has been absorbed by
the surface. This takes place across northern Eurasia and results in extensive river runoff into
the Arctic Ocean.
As discussed in later chapters, many projections of future climate suggest that the largest
increases in near-surface air temperature will occur at high latitudes, possibly as a result of
feedback mechanisms. We will therefore return in later chapters to the question of whether
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