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Wind Power

The wind power business has grown from a niche sector within the energy
industry to a global industry that attracts substantial investment. In Europe wind
has become the biggest source of new power generation capacity, while also
successfully competing with the gas, coal and nuclear sectors in China and the
US.
Wind Power looks at the nations, companies and people fighting for control of
one of the world’s fastest growing new industries and how we can harness one of
the planet’s most powerful energy resources. The book examines the challenges
the sector faces as it competes for influence and investment with the fossil fuel
industry across the globe. Over the course of this volume, Backwell analyses the
industry players, the investment trends and the technological advancements that
will define the future of wind energy. This second edition is revised throughout
and contains new material on frontier wind markets and industry consolidation,
as well as the cost reductions and market gains that led to 2015 being a landmark
year for the big wind turbine companies.
This is an important resource for professionals working in wind and wider
renewable industries, energy finance, conventional energy companies and
government as well as researchers, students, journalists and the general public.

Ben Backwell has spent most of his career covering international energy markets
and finance. He worked for international news agencies and as an analyst in
Houston, Caracas, New York, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires before moving
back to his native UK in 2006. He then worked as an analyst covering major oil
companies before joining renewable energy news service Recharge, becoming
Editor-in-Chief in 2012. He joined FTI Consulting as a Managing Director in
2015 after taking part in the creation of the Solution Wind advocacy campaign
ahead of the COP21 climate negotiations. He holds a master’s degree in Politics
from the University of London.
Wind Power
The Struggle for Control of a
New Global Industry

2nd edition

Ben Backwell
Second edition published 2018
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

© 2018 Ben Backwell

The right of Ben Backwell to be identified as author of this work has

been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced

or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or

registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.

[First edition published by Routledge 2014]

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Backwell, Ben, author.Title: Wind power : the struggle for
control of a new global industry / Ben Backwell.
Description: 2nd edition. | Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY :
Routledge, 2018.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017027138| ISBN 9781138082410 (hb) |
ISBN 9781138082427 (pb) | ISBN 9781315112534 (ebk)
Subjects: LCSH: Wind power industry. | Renewable energy sources. |
Energy development.Classification: LCC HD9502.5.W552 B33 2018 |
DDC 333.9/2--dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017027138

ISBN: 978-1-138-08241-0 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-1-138-08242-7 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-11253-4 (ebk)

Typeset in Goudy
by Fish Books Ltd.
Contents

List of Illustrations vii

Foreword ix
Acknowledgements xi

Introduction 1

1 From Maoism to Learjets 7

2 Big industry moves in 26

3 China shakes the wind industry 41

4 Emerging powers 66

5 The offshore frontier 95

6 After Copenhagen 119

7 Turbine manufacturers in trouble 128

8 The wind industry bounces back 143

9 Tipping point: Windpower’s iPhone moment 161

10 Challenges for the wind-turbine industry 170

Conclusion: Who will reap the wind? 192

References 195
Index 202
Illustrations

Figures
1.1 Vestas’ giant V164 offshore turbine 8
1.2 The Tvind group’s charismatic leader, Mogens Amdi Petersen 9
1.3 Siemens Wind’s CTO, Henrik Stiesdal, one of the pioneers
of the modern wind industry 10
1.4 US wind-power pioneer and Zond founder, Jim Dehlsen 12
1.5 The end of the first US wind boom left parts of California littered
with dead wind turbines 13
1.6 Growth in size of Vestas’ turbine models, 1979–2014 15
1.7 Ditlev Engel, who presided over wholesale expansion at Vestas
after taking over as CEO in 2005 21
1.8 ‘The Willpower’ sculptures were installed outside Vestas’ main
offices under Engel 22
2.1 GE turbines at a site in the US 28
2.2 Siemens’ SWT3.6 has been the best-selling offshore turbine in
the world 31
2.3 Alstom’s 6MW Haliade offshore turbine being erected 32
2.4 Iberdrola’s CEO, Ignacio Sanchez Galán, transformed the Spanish
utility into the biggest wind-power operator in the world 34
2.5 Iberdrola’s CORE wind-farm control centre 36
3.1 Sinovel’s Chairman and President, Han Junliang 46
3.2 Chinese Wind Market Outlook 2015–2020 57
3.3 Unconnected wind power capacity in China 2008–2016 58
3.4 Leading Chinese wind-turbine manufacturers 60
3.5 China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative set to boost wind turbine exports 62
4.1 Suzlon’s founder and Chairman, Tulsi Tanti 70
4.2 Alstom’s Senior Vice-President for Wind, Alfonso Faubel 84
4.3 Mainstream Renewable Power CEO Eddie O’Connor meets
Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, Santiago, 2016 91
4.4 GWEC delegation meets Argentinian Energy Minister Juan Jose
Aranguren and Renewable Energy Secretary Sebastian Kind in
Buenos Aires, 2016 93
viii Illustrations

5.1 The giant London Array offshore wind farm in the Thames Estuary 98
5.2 Siemens’ new direct-drive 6MW machine at the Gunfleet Sands
offshore wind farm 103
5.3 REpower’s 5MW offshore turbine 106
5.4 Near-term global offshore demand is downgraded, but
medium-term looks promising 116
6.1 Global annual wind-power installations, 1996–2012 126
6.2 Global cumulative wind-power installations, 1996–2012 127
7.1 Vestas’ Chairman, Bert Nordberg 131
8.1 Global annual installed wind capacity 2001–2016 143
8.2 Consolidation timeline 148
8.3 Top 15 wind-turbine suppliers in the annual global market in 2016,
when Siemens and Gamesa were separate companies 156
8.4 Top 15 wind-turbine suppliers in the annual global market in 2016,
after the merger of Siemens and Gamesa 157
8.5 Global wind market forecast 2015–2024 159
8.6 Annual onshore wind-turbine suppliers in 2016 160
10.1 Possible OEM market landscape in 2020 178

Tables
1.1 Vestas’ key financial indicators 23
1.2 Vestas’ turbine deliveries 24
1.3 Vestas’ share of the global market (2005–12) 24
2.1 Iberdrola’s installed renewables capacity 35
2.2 NextEra’s wind-power installations 35
Foreword

Wind power is the first of the so-called ‘new renewables’ to establish itself as a
mainstream power source. Utility-scale wind projects operate in more than 90
countries, with 29 countries having more than 1,000 MW installed, supplying
more than 4 per cent of the global electricity supply. Total installations at the
end of this year will be well over 500 GW, and recent projections show that wind
could be supplying 14–20 per cent of global electricity by 2030.
Since a small company built the world’s first commercial wind farm at
Crotched Mountain near my childhood home in southern New Hampshire in
late 1980, the industry has transformed itself beyond all recognition. It took 18
years to get to the level of 10,000 MW in 1998, and another 10 years to reach
100 GW in 2008. Passing 200 GW in early 2011, and 300 GW by the end of
2013, installed capacity has now passed 500 GW, reaching double-digit pene-
tration of electricity supply in Denmark, Uruguay, Ireland, Portugal, Spain,
Germany, and 14 US states. From a few small entrepreneurs in the US and
Denmark, wind energy has emerged as a technology embraced by most of the
world’s major energy companies and utilities. Wind power supplies increasingly
cost-competitive, carbon-free electricity in an ever-expanding number of
markets around the world, enhancing energy security, stabilising electricity prices
and creating good-quality jobs.
Ben’s book is a valiant attempt to nail down a snapshot of a dynamic industry
reaching maturity and going global while at the same time being buffeted by
myriad forces beyond its control. While no ‘insider’ will agree 100 per cent with
every bit of his analysis, most of it rings pretty true to me. He explores all the
main themes while pointing out that what the future will bring is still very much
in play, and importantly, draws the fundamental link between climate policy and
the development of the industry, which is not often apparent in the daily to and
fro of the energy policy debate. In fact, it is this disconnect between the climate
and energy policy debate both nationally and internationally that is responsible
for the start–stop nature of support for wind in many key markets.
At the same time, of course, wind has established itself as a mainstream power
source on its own merits as a supplier of affordable, clean and indigenous energy;
even in the face of massive fossil and nuclear subsidies and the lack of an
effective carbon price. He makes the case very clearly that wind’s greatest enemy
x Foreword

is not its variable production, but the volatility of policy swings and roundabouts
that stand in the way of delivering the maximum quantity of carbon-free
electricity at the lowest possible price.
I strongly recommend Ben’s book to those who want to get a broad picture of
just how far wind energy has come in the past three decades, as well as the
promise and challenges of the road that lies ahead.

Steve Sawyer, General Secretary, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

Acknowledgements

Taking part in the growth of the wind industry, after years spent primarily
covering fossil-fuel energy and finance, has been an amazing experience. As
befits an industry that is still relatively young and – more importantly – one
whose participants actually feel they are doing something worthwhile, I have
been impressed since day one by the amount of openness in the wind industry.
The idealism and pioneering spirit that is in the DNA of wind can still be felt
even in the biggest corporate players in the sector.
Over the last eight years, I have interviewed and worked with some remarkable
people, from some of the founders and early pioneers to long-term advocates,
entrepreneurs and the tenacious engineers who, day by day, are out there finding
new solutions to make the technology bigger, smarter and more efficient.
I have been overwhelmed by the positive response I have had when I told
people I was writing this book, with a whole number of senior industry figures
agreeing to be interviewed, suggesting themes, and reading and checking sections
and chapters. Any mistakes of course, are entirely my own.
I would like to thank in particular Henrik Stiesdal, the former CTO of
Siemens Wind, one of the inventors of the modern wind-turbine industry and
one of its most critical thinkers, whose feedback gave me the confidence that I
was on the right track and who has supported me as a friend and mentor through
the last decade.
GWEC General Secretary, Steve Sawyer, the industry’s most tireless advocate,
has provided constant encouragement and valuable perspective since I started
working in the sector, constantly reminding the wind industry of the wider
objective of fighting climate change.
Mainstream Renewable Power’s founder Eddie O’Connor has been a constant
source of inspiration as someone willing to take on big challenges time and time
again and come out with a result. Adam Bruce, Mainstream’s Head of Global
Corporate Affairs has provided constant insight and new thinking on policy and
regulatory frameworks, as has Vestas Vice President and GWEC Chairman
Morten Dyrholm.
Christian Kjaer – who was the CEO of the European Wind Energy Assoc-
iation (EWEA) at a crucial period in the development of the wind industry, also
contributed valuable insight and experience for the first edition of this book.
xii Wind Power

And I have been greatly helped by having access to insight from some of the
most knowledgeable analysts in the industry; Aris Karcanias, co-lead of FTI
Consulting’s Clean Energy Practice, Feng Zhao, Robert Clover and Eddie Rae.
Alfonso Faubel – formerly of Alstom Wind and The Switch’s Jukka Pukka
Makinen gave invaluable insight into manufacturing systems and supply-chain
management; Blade Dynamics’ Pepe Carnevale and Theo Botha gave me a new
perspective on composites and rotor blades; while much of what I have learnt
about offshore wind is thanks to Chairman of 8.2 Aarufield and industry
association Renewable UK, Julian Brown.
I have also benefited from discussions over a period of time with Andrew
Garrad – another of the industry’s pioneers and one of its most compelling
champions; Goldwind’s Wu Gang; E.ON’s Michael Lewis; Enel’s Francesco
Starace; wind industry advocate turned Global Solar Council Chairman, Bruce
Douglas; IEA Renewable Energy Head, Paolo Frankl, GE’s Rob Sauven and
Anne McEntee; the Crown Estate’s Huub den Roodjen; Nordex-Acciona CEO
José Luis Blanco; Mainstream Renewable Power’s Andy Kinsella, Argentinian
congressman and green energy advocate Juan Carlos Villalonga; Acciona Energía
CEO Rafael Mateo, Gamesa’s David Mesonero; RenewableUK CEO Hugh
McNeal; Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult CEO Andrew Jamieson, and
ABEEólica’s Elbia Melo.
I would like to commend the critical but supportive coverage of the industry
by the Financial Times’ Pilita Clark and Andrew Ward, Bloomberg’s Jessica
Shankleman and Business Green’s James Murray. Bloomberg New Energy
Finance’s Michael Leibreich and Angus McCrone have played a big role in
getting influencers and officials around the world to wake up and smell the coffee
on renewables through their hard-hitting research and data.
Special thanks go also to, Malgosia Bartosik, Stewart Mullin, Oliver Loenker,
Michael Zarin, Bart Doyle, Juan Guillermo Walker, Pete Clusky, Sarah Merrick,
Ramon Fiestas, Emmet Curley, Juan Diego Diaz, Klaus Rave, Rob Hastings,
Ursula Guerra, Sonia Franco, Nadia Weekes, Shaun Campbell, David Weston,
Sebastían Kind, Michael Holm, Morten Albaek, Stephen Thomas, Eduard Sala
de Vedruna, Frederick Hendrik, Enrique de las Morenas, Anders Søe-Jensen,
Ronnie Bonnar, Per Krogsgaard, Birger Madsen, Vicente Trullench, Jean Felber,
Jennifer Webber, Gordon Edge, Ramesh Kymal, Michael Holm, Garth Halliday,
José Antonio Miranda, Robin Palao Bastardés, Heikki Willstedt, Jayasura
Francis, Isabelle Prosser, Rodrigo Ferreira, Luis Adao da Fonseca, Vineeth
Vijayaraghavan, and Jonathan Collings.
I would also like to thank FTI Consulting for supporting my efforts in writing
a revised second edition of this book, and in particular, John Waples, Deborah
Scott, Alaric Marsden, Ed Westropp, Ben Brewerton, Francesca Boothby,
Emerson Clarke, Caroline Cutler, Daniel Hamilton, Amy Yiannitsarou, and
Miranda Bray.
Finally, thanks to my wife Melissa, and my two sons Dimitri and Thierry.
Introduction

The struggle for the global wind-power market

From the arid plains of Gansu province in China to Oklahoma, to the rough
waters of the North Sea, wind power is on the march.
Once a small industry selling mainly to farmers and cooperatives, and domin-
ated by a couple of small, mainly Danish firms, the sector has become a key
investment area for industrial heavyweights such as Siemens, General Electric,
and Mitsubishi, in the search for zero-emission power generation.
In key markets in Europe, the United States and China, wind has gone from
being a niche power source, to one that is increasingly challenging ‘conven-
tional’ energy (coal- and gas-fired thermal generation and nuclear), and along
the way disrupting the traditional business model of the world’s big power
utilities. In 2012, wind became the biggest source of new power generation in the
US for the first time ever – with a record 13.2 GW of new installations – and it
had already won this place within the EU back in 2008.
Key to the industry’s rise have been government incentives and targets around
the global attempt to limit carbon emissions, including landmark renewable-
energy targets in the EU, national feed-in tariff and green certificate schemes,
state portfolio standards and the production tax credit (PTC) in the US. In some
major European countries, large-scale wind power – and in particular the growing
offshore sector – is practically the only way to reach their 2020 targets and close
the gap in capacity caused by the decommissioning of older coal, gas and nuclear
plants; while for the US and China, wind is essential if the two countries want
to make any progress on stemming their rise in carbon emissions.
However, government support has not been the whole story and is set to
become a far less important part of the picture going forward.
The impact of the March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
plant in Japan and the subsequent decision by Germany and other nations to
shut down or put on hold their nuclear industries, strongly added to wind’s
momentum. In many countries, a lack of available fossil fuels – and the high cost
of importing them – makes wind a logical way to add domestically produced
power quickly, cheaply and cleanly, while creating local jobs. Politicians in India
are fast waking up to the fact that cost and infrastructure bottlenecks make
2 Wind Power

building new coal plants a pointless exercise; while in China, growing public
pressure over air pollution means that policymakers have steadily increased their
ambitions for wind as they look for alternatives to coal. Even though it was short
on legally binding targets, the Paris Agreement of December 2015 seemed to
enshrine a new level of international consensus over climate change and a
determination to make faster progress in combatting CO2 emissions.
But perhaps the most significant development since the first edition of this
book was published has been dramatic falls in costs for wind power, driven by
scale, supply chain efficiencies and technology innovation. Once seen by
traditional voices within government and the power industry as too costly, wind
has shown in a growing number of places, from Texas to the Brazilian North East
to South Africa and Chile that it can compete on price with conventional power
and displace incumbent fossil power sources through open competition.
In Brazil, record capacity factors have allowed wind-power projects to win
power contracts at prices as low as around US$42/MWh, while gas producers
were unwilling to take part in a government power tender with a floor price of
R$140/MWh (US$67/MWh). [All conversions are approximate and were calcu-
lated using the conversion rate at the time of writing].
In the US, the wind industry has shown itself remarkably resistant to lower gas
prices, despite all the fanfare over the ‘shale gas revolution’. The sector has seen
record growth in the face of Henry Hub natural gas prices at lows of US$2–3/mn
BTU.
In South Africa, wind-power companies have bid at prices that are the
equivalent of one half of the cost for new-build coal. And in Chile’s landmark
power tender in 2016, companies like Mainstream Renewable Power and Enel
won the lion’s share of capacity available with prices for wind as low as
US$38.8/MWh, beating incumbents’ already built fossil plants on price.
As we shall see, the move to competitive auctions is producing dramatic falls
in wind-power costs in Europe too, and this is set to create a new inflection point
for policy makers, as the case for investment and new-build nuclear and fossil
becomes more tenuous.
Moving into the mainstream brings new challenges, however. As Angela
Merkel told Germany’s Bundestag just before her re-election as Chancellor in
September 2013, renewables no longer occupy a niche, ‘but are part of the
overall generation mix’, adding ‘that leads to entirely new problems’.
As wind’s weight in the generation mix has grown, so have the challenges
grown in integrating their output in the grid, and managing their effect on the
traditional utilities that dominate in both power generation and distribution in
most geographies.
Power-system operators and government officials have raised opposition to
wind – and solar – due to the effects of large-scale amounts of renewable power
on system balancing.
Officials use the term ‘intermittency’ to describe wind power; they argue that
traditional ‘base-load’ generation is needed, and that renewables create the need
for parallel investments in back-up power, which makes them prohibitively
 Introduction 3

expensive (see the front cover story in the Economist, ‘Clean Energy’s Dirty
Secret’, 25 February 2017).
It is true that in some places muddled regulation and market design have
meant that large-scale deployment of renewables has had perverse effects in the
short term. Germany’s Energiewende, for example, has seen an impressive amount
of renewables deployed, as well as a comeback for the dirtiest forms of brown coal
generation, leading to a net rise in emissions for several years.
Utilities like Iberdrola, ENEL, RWE and E.ON have been key investors in
wind energy, but they have found that the growth of the business has increasingly
affected their traditional businesses, pushing mostly gas-fired power generation
off the grid when the wind is blowing, for instance.
However, the consensus among both grid operators and utilities is that change
is unstoppable and needn’t cause an increase in costs. While utilities have often
continued to lobby for their fossil-fuel generation business – the call for capacity
markets in some European countries, for example – they are taking a series of
steps to manage the transition, including continued investment in wind and key
enabling technologies such as intelligent grids and storage, and carrying out
‘corporate splits’ between their clean power and legacy fossil businesses to create
more visibility for their shareholders on their future business models.
Policymakers and regulators meanwhile, generally recognise that instead of
slowing down renewables, investments are needed in the long-term solutions
that are necessary for the full modernisation of power systems – cross-border
power markets, a fully interconnected international grid (the ‘supergrid’), storage
technologies, commercial models for demand response, and smart metering.
Meanwhile, public opinion has remained resolutely positive about wind,
despite politicians sensing that renewables can be an easy scapegoat to blame for
unsustainably expensive power systems, and the activities of a section of the
conservative press that border on the pathological. A series of hysterical cam-
paigns, which make all sorts of claims (for example, that turbines are inefficient,
that they blight the landscape, or even that they make you ill), have spectac-
ularly failed to change the public’s gut feeling that power generated from an
entirely natural and free source is a good idea.
We have come a long way since the first groups of inventors and hobbyists
who started the modern wind industry. The first chapter in this book looks at the
creation of the world’s wind market and the rise of the mainly European wind
companies – led by Denmark’s Vestas – to global status. Chapter 2 looks at the
entry of big global engineering giants – like Germany’s Siemens and the US’s GE
– into the business as it gained momentum, and the entry into the business of the
big power utilities, which depending on who you speak to, have been key
promoters of and key barriers to the growth of the industry. It also looks at the
growth in the sector in the US, which, although hardly a hawk in terms of
climate negotiations, has consistently been the world’s single largest market for
renewable energy – until the rise of China, which we tackle in Chapter 3. In
industrial terms, the battle between European, US and Chinese players is one of
the key themes of this book.
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