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Risk and Foreign Direct
Investment

Colin White and Miao Fan

Risk and Foreign Direct Investment
Also by Colin White

RUSSIA AND AMERICA: THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC DIVERGENCE

MASTERING RISK: ENVIRONMENTS, MARKETS AND POLITICS IN
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY
COMING FULL CIRCLE: AN ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE PACIFIC RIM
(with E. L. Jones and L. Frost)
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
Risk and Foreign Direct
Investment

By Colin White and Miao Fan

© Colin White and Miao Fan 2006
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2006 978-1-4039-4564-8

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this

publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90
Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP.
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this
work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2006 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010
Companies and representatives throughout the world
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave
Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom
and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European
Union and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-52310-8 ISBN 978-0-230-62483-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230624832
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
White, Colin (Colin M.)
Risk and foreign direct investment / by Colin White and Miao Fan.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Investments, Foreign. 2. Country risk. 3. Risk. I. Fan, Miao, 1976– II. Title.
HG4538.W4145 2006
332.67′3–dc22 2005052283

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06
To our families
This page intentionally left blank
Contents

List of Tables x
List of Figures xi

Preface xii

1 Introduction 1

Part I Risk and Home Country Bias 5

2 A Review of Theory Concerning Risk and the Foreign
Investment Decision 7
Different approaches to risk 8
The ‘hard’ approach to risk 10
How is risk measured 13
Problems with the conventional approach 15
The peculiarities of foreign direct investment (FDI) 21

3 Risk and Risk-generating Events 23

Integrating the treatment of risk 24
A definition of risk 26
Incidence, impact and response: the universality of risk 29
Types and levels of risk 31
The risk appetite 34
The risk/return trade-off 39

4 Home Country Bias in Foreign Direct Investment 41

The nature of FDI 42
What is the problem? 45
The definition and measurement of home country bias 47
Home country bias and the immobility of capital 49
The causes of home country bias 56
Home country bias and country risk 58

Part II Different Perspectives on Investment Appraisal 61

5 The Investment Process and Decision Making: the Financial
Perspective 63
The possibility and cost of mistakes 64
vii
viii Contents

Investment appraisal 66
The inputs into the estimation of present value 67
Implications of the analysis 73
Incorporating uncertainty 75
The real options approach 81

6 The Investment Process and Decision Making: the Strategic

Perspective 84
Strategy and the nature of the enterprise 85
The full range of investment options 87
Strategic risk 90
Strategy and the individual investment project 92
Control of risk and an appropriate information strategy 96
Direct investment as the preferred mode of entry 101

7 The Investment Process and Decision Making:

the Organisational Perspective 104
A coalition of stakeholders 105
The structure of the enterprise 109
Value and risk distribution 114
Ownership and control 117
Capital structure and risk: creditors and owners 120
The decision-making process 122

Part III The Different Types of Risk 125

8 The Context of Risk 127
The sources of generic risk 128
The nature of global risk 131
The perception of global risk 136
The incorporation of global risk 137
The nature and classification of industry risk 139
The components of industry risk 141

9 Country Risk 146

The nature of country risk 147
The sub-components of country risk 151
The components of country risk 155
The conceptual framework of country risk 163
Assessment: weighting and the use of quantitative
proxies 163
The country risk exposure of international investment
projects 165
 Contents ix

10 Enterprise and Project Risk 168

The nature of enterprise and project risk 169
A conceptual framework of enterprise risk 171
The conceptual framework of all risk 174
The risk filter 175
Different patterns of risk 177
How to quantify enterprise and project risk 183

Part IV Responses to Risk and the Determinants of FDI 187

11 Responses to Risk 189
The quantification of risk and valuation of an investment
project 190
How to incorporate risk into an investment valuation 191
Alternative approaches and a solution 196
The strategic context 203
The decision-making process, stakeholders and risk 204
The adjusted present value approach 206

12 The Behaviour of FDI 209

Micro investment decisions and their macro consequences 210
The rating agencies 214
The level and fluctuations in FDI 221
The distribution of FDI 223
The role of risk 235

13 Conclusion 236
Appendix 1 240
Appendix 2 242
Notes 245

Bibliography 250
Index 262
List of Tables

5.1 Mapping an investment opportunity onto a call option 82

6.1 A classification of options 89
6.2 The different time perspectives 98
7.1 Stakeholders in an investment project 106
7.2 International stakeholder groups 107
9.1 Country risk sub-components from previous research 152
9.2 Country risk sub-components from rating agencies 154
11.1 The investment decision process 207
12.1 The risk responses 212
12.2 Methodologies of country ratings agencies 219
12.3 FDI flows as % of Gross Fixed Capital Formation 221
12.4 Levels of FDI 222
12.5 FDI flows as % of GFCF by level of development 223
12.6 Level of country risk and FDI inflows (3 groups) 226
12.7 Country risk and FDI inflows (5 groups) 229
12.8 FDI stocks among Triad members (US$bill) 234

x
List of Figures

3.1 The matrix of country and industry risk 33

5.1 The error matrix 64
6.1 Mapping an investment strategy 93
6.2 The mode of entry decision tree 102
8.1 A typology of global risk 135
8.2 A typology of industry risk 141
9.1 A typology of country risk 164
10.1 A typology of enterprise risk 172
10.2 A typology of investment risk 175
10.3 The filtering process 176

xi
Preface

The present book is the result of an interest of one of the authors

which has persisted throughout his career in different forms, Colin
White, an interest in risk – its identification and measurement and
even more its role in the historical development of different eco-
nomies. All of his previous work has reflected this interest, but to a
varying degree. The views expressed therefore are a distillation of what
wisdom the author has acquired over a long career teaching and
writing about such topics. The second author, Miao Fan, completed in
2004 a PhD thesis at Swinburne University of Technology, entitled
Country Risk and its Impact on the FDI Decision-making Process from
an Australian Perspective, Swinburne University of Technology 2004,
which had at its core a survey of Australian managers and their attitude
to country and other types of risk. She has just started a career in a
bank pursuing the more practical side of risk management. She has
worked over the last few years with her co-author on a number of con-
ference papers which have progressively set out the main outline of the
book.
Both authors would like to give their thanks to those whose help,
whether academic or otherwise, has made such an enterprise possible.
As the dedication shows, this is most of all the families of the two
authors. We live in a risky world, but families reduce that risk. A life of
reflection and writing is initiated with the help of parents and made
very much easier by the assistance of loving partners. Colleagues are
often there to discuss an interesting point and to provide the reality
test to which all ideas must at some time be exposed. Universities
provide the facilities critical to research, the preparation and giving of
papers at conferences and the whole-hearted commitment of time and
effort to the completion of a text. To all responsible for the necessary
inputs many thanks.

xii
1
Introduction

The aim is to establish a structure for decision-making that

produces good decisions, or improved decisions, defined in a
suitable way, based on a realistic view of how people can act
in practice.
(Aven 2003: 96)

This book is an exploration of the way in which risk influences the

process of decision making relating to foreign direct investment. Its
initial premise is that country risk is, and should be, a major deterrent
to such investment. Since FDI is of increasing significance for the pro-
motion of economic development in countries with a low level of econ-
omic development and for the maintenance of continuing growth in
developed countries, it is important to understand how risk of various
types constrains the flow of such investment. FDI is much more impor-
tant than trade in delivering goods and services abroad (UNCTAD 2003:
xvi). In 2002 global sales by multilateral enterprises reached $US18 tril-
lion, as compared with world exports of $US8 trillion. In the same
year the value added by foreign affiliates of multinational companies
reached $US3.4 trillion, about one tenth of world GDP, twice the level
of 1982. Because risk is a significant determinant of foreign investment
there is a need for the relevant decision makers to identify, estimate and
assess the relevant risk and to respond to it (Baird and Thomas 1985:
234).
There are several books which have had an important influence on
the authors. Hull, as early as 1980, anticipated most of the relevant
issues. Moosa (2002) provides the conventional view about the use of
present value for appraisal of international investment projects.
Broader in its scope than Moosa’s text, since it incorporates the real

1
2 Risk and Foreign Direct Investment

options approach, is a book by Buckley (1996), which claims to be

the first book on international capital budgeting (Buckley 1996: vii).
The main innovation since the publication of Hull’s book has been
the application of a valuation of real options to investment appraisal.
A pioneering book is that by Dixit and Pindyck (1994). Probably the
best introduction is a set of essays edited by Schwartz and Trigeorgis
(2001). This literature has the virtue of building into an investment
appraisal both uncertainties concerning future performance and
interdependencies between investment projects over time.
The book is neither solely an instructional manual on how to make
an international investment decision in conditions of risk, as Hull’s
book (1980) might be regarded, nor solely a research monograph, as
the book by Dowd (1998), on the concept of value at risk, might be
viewed. It is more like the book by Moosa (2002), which is intermedi-
ate between a primer and a review of existing theory. It goes much
further than Moosa in considering the problem of valuation of invest-
ment, in particular how uncertainty affects that valuation. The book is
therefore similar to both a review of theory, one with a critical slant,
and a primer, an updating of Hull’s approach to FDI, with strong indi-
cations of how an investment decision should be made. It is also like a
research monograph in that it develops a treatment which brings
together ideas not previously combined.
It is easy to see the elegance of the financial theory used in the ‘hard’
risk literature but to realise its limitations (Bernstein 1996). In this
theory, there is a clear prescription on how to effect an investment
appraisal, which needs to be examined. However, it is also easy to see
the importance of good strategy making to the success of an individual
project and to the overall performance of the relevant enterprise. All
successful enterprises have good strategies, which include appropriate
procedures for making decisions on which projects to run with, proce-
dures which take full account of any interdependencies between pro-
jects of a different timing. An appropriate approach clearly requires the
insights of both the financial theorist and the strategist. In an impor-
tant sense, to be developed in the book, strategy should have prece-
dence over capital budgeting, but it is always sensible to base strategy
on sound quantitative foundations, where this is possible. The book
does this.
The first section of this book is introductory, including three chap-
ters which establish the context for the main arguments. In sequence
they discuss and critique the existing theory relevant to risk control,
explore the general nature of risk and indicate the tendency of FDI
 Introduction 3

flows to be lower than expected, that is the existence of a pronounced

home country bias. The second section introduces the present value
formula for appraising investment projects, initially in conditions of
certainty but then under uncertainty or risk. It tackles the appraisal of
investment projects from three different perspectives – the financial,
the strategic and the organisational. There are chapters devoted to each
of these perspectives. The third section concentrates on the identifica-
tion and measurement of risk, particularly country risk. It includes
three chapters which deal in sequence with types of systematic risk
other than country risk, country risk itself and the risk specific to an
enterprise or a project. The final section comprises two chapters,
showing how risk should be incorporated into an investment appraisal
and how the response to risk has clearly kept aggregate FDI flows much
lower than might be anticipated.
Part I
Risk and Home Country Bias

It is hardly surprising that less investment occurs in countries

that managers perceive to be risky … this finding tells us
nothing about the fundamental sources of risk.
(Henisch 2002: 9)

The aim of the introductory section is twofold, to indicate the im-

portance of risk in economic decision making, notably investment
decisions, and to emphasise the prevalence throughout the world
of a home country bias in the location of investment: the link between
the two is a major focus of the book.
There are three chapters. The first explores the conventional treat-
ment of risk and investment. The second considers in more detail the
nature and role of risk, including country risk, in decision making
relating to investment. The third considers the level of FDI in the con-
temporary economy, particularly how to judge whether it is large or
small. This chapter shows that there is considerable evidence of a pro-
nounced home country bias in the location of investment, as of other
economic activities.

5
2
A Review of Theory Concerning Risk
and the Foreign Investment Decision

Possibly one of the biggest reasons for the failure of manage-

ment science models in business is the management scientist’s
tendency to want to make his model as ‘sophisticated’ and as
‘realistic’ as possible without taking due account of how it will
fit into this company’s decision-making processes at their
current stage of evolution.
(Hull 1980: 134)

This chapter considers the platform of existing theory on which an

acceptable treatment of risk and FDI can be built. 1 It is appropriate
to consider at some length the way in which risk is treated in the
financial literature and to show its limited relevance to the appraisal
of foreign direct investment. It is also necessary to place the FDI
decision in the context of the investment decision-making process
in general.
There are five sections to this chapter:

• In the first section there is a review of the different approaches to

risk.
• The second provides a statement and critique of the ‘hard’ risk
approach.
• The third section analyses how risk is usually measured, notably as
variance and as the impact of extreme events.
• Section four offers a critique of this approach in the context of the
foreign direct investment decision.
• Section five considers the distinguishing characteristics of foreign
direct investment and how they influence the treatment of risk.

7
8 Risk and Foreign Direct Investment

Different approaches to risk

It is possible to conceptualise risk in different ways. There are three
main approaches (Culp 2001: chapter 1).

• according to its multifarious sources, focusing on the incidence of

specific unanticipated risk-generating events or behavioural changes;
• according to the impact of risky events on a key performance indi-
cator, distinguishing risk which is systematic in its impact, affecting
all the members of a defined group, and risk which is idiosyncratic
and non-systematic, that is specific to an enterprise or a project;
• according to a distinction between risk and uncertainty, or more
broadly between financial and business risk, the former amenable
to estimation of the relevant probabilities of relevant outcomes,
the latter not so and requiring a specialised knowledge to be
manageable at all.

The conventional ‘hard’ risk literature argues:

• that the first approach is irrelevant to risk management – the

sources of risk are of no significance, since it is the impact on a key
performance indicator such as profit or the value of the relevant
enterprise, which is important,
• that the central focus of any risk control is systematic market risk
but this is conditional on a stable degree of vulnerability to market
risk for any particular enterprise,
• that the third approach is unnecessary since there is only risk and no
uncertainty – all probabilities are already known or can be derived
from subjective assessments.

Most analysis of risk in the ‘hard’ literature short-circuits both the need to
consider the source of risk and to make a clear and consistent distinction
between risk and uncertainty, and therefore between financial and busi-
ness risk. Such analysis avoids tracing the sequence of events which
results in risk for the enterprise, concentrating on performance outcomes
without considering the causative chains which produce those outcomes.
It assumes that all possible outcomes can be measured as probabilities,
albeit subjective probabilities, and that only risk is under analysis, not
uncertainty.
For our analysis the source of risk is important since understanding
that source allows risk to be mitigated as well as managed. In this book,
 A Review of Theory Concerning Risk and the Foreign Investment Decision 9

risk control is seen as consisting of both risk mitigation – actions to

reduce the risk level to which the decision makers are exposed, and risk
management – actions to redistribute at least some of the risk to
others, whether commercially through insurance or hedging, through
voluntary sharing in strategic alliances or through involuntary sharing
imposed by government. Financial theory fails to put enough emphasis
on the need for the mitigation of risk. In practice, sensible managers
devote far more time and effort to risk mitigation than risk manage-
ment, the former being strategically more important to the retention
of competitive advantage than the latter.
There is a simple rule put forward by economists on how much miti-
gation should be undertaken in any particular situation. The commit-
ment of resources should be taken to the point at which the marginal
benefit of the action taken is equal to its marginal cost. Beyond this
point additional costs are not worth incurring. The benefit consists
in the reduction of risk, which in its turn can be represented by a
notional increase in the present value of the investment.
The second distinction is important but is less useful for our analy-
sis than usually assumed. Financial theory argues – surprisingly to
anyone not versed in the financial theory literature – that managers
should not be concerned with risk management, because the owners
of an enterprise, its shareholders, have a much better opportunity to
diversify risk through their choice and adjustment of a full portfolio
of financial assets than managers have (see for example Doherty
2000 or Culp 2001). They are in a much better position to choose
the risk/return combination they desire and to realise that choice.
Most financial risk is unsystematic, accounting for something like
70% of the variability in the price of an individual share (Buckley
1996: 27). Because unsystematic risk can be diversified away it
allegedly has no influence on the behaviour of financial investors.
Systematic market risk is the prerogative of financial investors. In
practice, most managers find such a suggestion unacceptable since
any risk of a project failure threatens their own position. Moreover,
the distinction does not seem useful for the present analysis. There is
risk which is systematic, but it is systematic by country or by indus-
try. There is a sense in which at the enterprise or project level all risk
is unsystematic.
The third approach raises the issue of the difference between busi-
ness risk and finance risk. On one account (Buckley 1996: 33–34),
financial risk is reflected in the premium added when an enterprise has
debt, which rises with the level of its gearing ratio. Business risk is the
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