1

Analysis and Mapping of Flood Risk Areas in Urban Occupations

neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso and Infulene 'D' in the Municipality of

Matola
Authors:
Helton C. Camacho1, José S. Mandlhate2Lúcio D. A. Nhanombe3Professor Dr. António
Bento Gonçalves4
1
Master's in Environmental Risk Management:[email protected]
2
Master's in Environmental Risk Management:[email protected]
3
Master's in Environmental Risk Management:[email protected]
4
PhD in Physical Geography and Environmental Studies / Faculty in the Department of Geography, ICS,
University of Minho:[email protected]
Summary
The present research, whose motivation is to contribute to the production of relevant information about the
environmental risk management aims to analyze and map areas that present risk of
occurrence of flooding in the Municipality of Matola, more precisely in the area of confluence between the
Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso, and Infulene 'D' neighborhoods through production, through the
use of the AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy Process) integrated with Geoprocessing in an environment
SIG, from the flood risk map. Using four base variables, which are: Land Use and Occupation,
Types of Soils, Hypsometry and Slope, this information was compiled by assigning scores and weighing.
these factors within the hierarchy for the flooding, in order to finally create the final map through the
software ArcGis 10.1. Thus, through Hierarchical Analysis and Multicriteria Analysis, it achieved-
the obtained results, demonstrating that the areas of greatest flood risk coincide with the areas
where the altitude varies between 29 to 38 meters and with a slope that varies between 0 to 2% which are the
areas downstream that have less soil infiltration capacity due to the sealing of the soil
only caused by urban expansion in the study area. Therefore, such areas deserve greater
attention when thinking about urban planning, in order to guide managers, the best way to
action in favor of mitigating the impacts arising from flooding cases.
Mapping

Abstract
The present research, whose motivation is to contribute to the production of relevant information on
Environmental risk management aims to analyze and map areas at risk of flooding in the Municipality of.
Matola, more precisely in the area of confluence between the neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba,
Saint Damasus and Infulene 'D' by producing, through the use of the AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy
Process integrated with Geoprocessing in a GIS environment, the flood risk map. Using four base
variables, namely: Use and Occupancy, Soil Types, Hypsometry and Slope, this information was
compiled by assigning scores and weighting these factors within the hierarchy for flooding, to finally
elaborate the final map through the ArcGis 10.1 software. Thus, through the Hierarchical Analysis and
Multicriteria Analysis, the results were obtained, showing that the areas of greatest flood risk coincide
with areas where the altitude varies between 29 and 38 meters and with a slope that varies between 0
and 2%, which are the downstream areas and that have less capacity for soil infiltration due to soil sealing
caused by urban sprawl in the study area. Thus, such areas deserve greater attention when urban planning
is considered, in order to guide managers on the best course of action to mitigate the impacts of flooding.
Mapping
 2

1. Introduction

The process of growth of urban centers in developing countries or

underdeveloped, has its own dynamics, where its structuring is marked by large
dysregulations that have a great influence on the quality of life of the population. The reflection of the lack of

territorial planning is presented in various ways, where one of the forms of manifestation
this deficit is related to the fact of seeing areas suitable for agricultural practice,
livestock farming, among other activities being invaded by the disordered urban expansion or then in
area with serious environmental risks (ECKHARDT, 2008 apud SILVA & ZAIDAM, 2004).

According to the same author ECKHARDT (2008 quoted in SANTOS, 2008), it is stated that there is a

very close relationship between environmental degradation, the intensity of disaster impacts and the
increased human vulnerability. The difficulty of access to land and housing in areas
urban areas, associated with the low performance of public power, led to an intensification of occupation

indiscriminate of unsuitable areas, such as floodplain areas, land with high

slopes and areas with high susceptibility to erosion processes, enhancing the
occurrence of natural disasters.

According to GUERRA & CUNHA (2004), natural disasters and their impacts
Environmental issues affect the physical spaces occupied by lower social classes much more.
favored than those of the higher classes, a fact that further exacerbates the situation. In addition
Thus, it is the very nature of the capitalist city to produce and amplify inequalities.
social, states CORRÊA (1993). The increasing urbanization of the last decades brought
modifications in land use and occupation and in the hydrological cycle of the impacted locations and among the

the most common problems in urbanized areas, floods and inundations are among the
major challenges to be faced, especially during periods of heavy rain, highlighting
the lowest areas (GUIMARÃES and PENHA, 2009).

The overload of a drainage system, the inappropriate use of land,

the waterproofing of a location and chaotic urbanization cause a reduction in capacity
natural storage of runoff (surface water flow), causing the water
occupy other locations, which tends to cause flooding and inundations (CANHOLI, 2015).
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The neighborhoods of the municipalities of Matola are not exempt from this fact as they go through
the same disturbances. The urbanization process that occurred in the Municipality of Matola more
precisely in the area of confluence between the neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso and
Infulene “D” reproduces the same rule that is observed in other areas of the country as well as of
world: characterized by being intense, fast, concentrated, and unequal, facts that create
serious problems.

In the municipality of Matola, more precisely in the study area, the floods are
phenomena that occur frequently, causing significant impacts on the environment and to
anthropic environment. Because most of the neighborhoods in this municipality did not experience the evolution of occupation.

human planning in the urban environment. Some neighborhoods in the municipality have developed from

spontaneous form and occupied areas that were once pathways for rainwater and river water,
as well as occupying lands in low areas prone to various types of natural events,
In this way, floods are the main environmental problems that the city faces every time.
there is precipitation.

The present research focuses on floods, where it will map areas that present
risk of flooding occurrence, as according to INGC this type causes great losses
both humans and materials, leaving the population in a serious state of vulnerability
social, the main factors that contribute to induction and/or were also identified
triggering of urban flooding in the study area; characterized the floods in
urban occupations in the area of confluence between the neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São
Dâmaso and Infulene 'D' in the Municipality of Matola and finally Identify and delimit the areas with
flood risk in the area of confluence between the neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São
Dâmaso and Infulene “D” in the Municipality of Matola.

1.1. Flood risk zoning

The elaboration of zoning in an area corresponds to a non-structural measure.

These measures are understood and considered as soft technologies and that, normally, have
much lower cost than the structural measures which are generally made up of
engineering works. However, non-structural measures yield good results, and are
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related to urban policies, planning, legislation, research, education, among others (IPT,
2007). Thus, a zoning risk map can represent a good instrument for the
administration of a city in relation to its maintenance and preservation of its structure, both
regarding physical as well as human issues.

According to KOBIYAMA (2006), "zoning is a territorial sectorization, according to

the various vocations and purposes of a certain area, aiming to enhance the
its use without compromising the environment, promoting quality of life and the
sustainable development." In this sense, one can consider, as an ideal situation, that
each municipality presents its zoning according to physical and social characteristics,
economic and cultural aspects related to your particular condition.

Veyret observes that the zoning map gives risk an objective character, since
which expose the areas with high risk and in need of regulation or even
even the prohibition of housing, and other spaces where the risk is lower or absent. The author,
it also emphasizes that "cartography allows, at the same time, the objectification of risk and its
designation as a public problem" (VEYRET, 2007).

More specifically, TUCCI (2005) considers zoning as 'the definition

from a set of rules for the occupation of flood risk areas, aimed at
future minimization of material and human losses in the face of major floods,
it adds that urban zoning is an instrument that allows for the rational use of areas
riverside communities. To reach the level of detail in the zoning map, it is anticipated
previously the development of hazard maps, maps of local vulnerability and, for
the end, the risk map. These terms - danger, risk, and vulnerability - are discussed in the literature.
in several approaches, thus we will seek to establish some definitions that are convenient to
zoning work.

1.2. Danger

The term 'danger' is used by many authors as the translation of 'natural.

hazard". More recently, the Civil Defense has been showing a tendency to replace the term
"danger" for "threat". The Technological Research Institute - IPT, succinctly, considers the
 5
the term danger as a synonym of the term hazard, and understands it as being the 'condition or
“phenomenon with the potential to cause an unpleasant consequence” (IPT, 2007). According to
with Kobiyama, the term danger can be understood as a translation of the English term 'hazard'
or as a synonym for the term threat.

Thus, the author understands danger as:

A natural phenomenon that occurs in known time and region that can
cause serious damage in the impacted areas. Thus, natural hazards are
processes or natural phenomena that occur in the biosphere, potentially constituting an event
harmful and to be modified by human activity, such as degradation of
environment and urbanization (KOBIYAMA, 2006).

For the first time, CASTRO (2000) emphasizes that danger "implies the existence of man that

assess what is damage and what is not," given that natural phenomena do not always cause harm.
the communities, being able, then, to be considered merely as an event. In this sense, Castro
presents the definition adopted by the United Nations, which states that a natural hazard is
probability of occurrence, within a specified period and in a given area, a
potentially harmful natural phenomenon" (UNITED NATIONS, 1984 apud CASTRO, 2000).

More directly, LAVELL (1999) considers that 'the idea of mitigation refers to the
probability of the occurrence of a harmful physical event for society." The author also
it emphasizes that if there is no disposition or propensity to suffer any harm when facing a
any physical event, there is no threat or danger, just the occurrence of a physical event
natural, without repercussions for society.

1.3. Risk

According to KOBIYAMA (2006), risk is the 'probability of expected loss for

an area inhabited at a certain time, due to the imminent presence of a danger.” Already,
Castro emphasizes that the United Nations understands risk as the 'degree of anticipated loss'
due to a specific natural phenomenon and based both on the natural danger and on the
vulnerability" (UNITED NATIONS, 1984 apud CASTRO, 2000).

Risk is a fundamental concept that assumes the existence of two factors:

the threat and the vulnerability. In this way, it can be understood that risk arises from the interrelationship.
 6

the intersection of these two factors, whose characteristics and specificities are heterogeneous.
Thus, it is understood that risk results in the 'probability of damages and losses' (LAVELL, 1999).

IPT (2007) states that risk consists of the 'relationship between the possibility of occurrence
of a given process or phenomenon, and the magnitude of damages or economic and/or consequences
social aspects of a given element, group, or community. The greater the vulnerability, the greater the
risk." Thus, the IPT emphasizes that the risk area constitutes a:
Area susceptible to being affected by natural phenomena and/or processes
induced that cause adverse effects. The people who live in these areas are subject to
to physical integrity, material and property losses. Normally, in the context of
In Brazilian cities, these areas correspond to low-income housing clusters.
rents (precarious settlements) (IPT, 2007).

1.3.1. General Risk Classification

Risks can be classified in various ways, and the classification is generally

relating the risks to the triggering event, this due to the strong relationship between a
adverse event, the danger, and the developed risks. CERRI and AMARAL (1998) as shown by
The table below considers environmental risks as the class with the broadest scope of risks.
which is subdivided into more specific classes according to the types of related events. This
classification stands out for its high degree of complexity, as it encompasses not only natural risks but also,
the technological and social risks.

Table IClassification of Environmental Risks

Source: CERRI AND AMARAL, 1998.

1.4. Floods

Floods usually occur when precipitation is intense and the amount of water
that reaches the river simultaneously is greater than its drainage capacity, resulting in the
 7

overflow of its waters to the riverbank areas (TUCCI and BERTONI, 2003; TUCCI, 2004). The
The main natural conditions for the occurrence of flooding are the relief, the amount, and intensity.
the rain, the vegetation cover, and the soil drainage capacity. The main conditions
Artificial ones result from the use and management of the soil, such as hydraulic works, degree of waterproofing of

solo - urbanization, deforestation and reforestation.

The flooding process can be defined in a broader way, according to

CASTRO (1998), like the overflow of water from the normal channel of rivers, seas, lakes and
pools, or accumulation of water due to poor drainage, in areas not usually submerged.
CASTRO (2003) classifies floods according to the evolutionary pattern as: floods or
gradual floods, flash floods, flooding and coastal flooding.
Frame 1: Classification of Environmental Risks

Flood Normally, gradual floods are cyclical and clearly

gradual or seasonal, where they relate to the prolonged rainy season
flood continues with the intense and concentrated rains this phenomenon
it is characterized by its scope and great extent.
Floods They are caused by intense and concentrated rains, in regions of
abrupt or choppy relays, characterized by producing steep and violent rises
floods elevations of the flows, which drain quickly and intensely,
Floods are typical of rugged regions
The they are waters accumulated on the streets and in urban areas by
floods heavy rainfall in a city with drainage systems
deficient.
As They are caused by the sudden invasion of the sea, typically characterized by
floods as secondary disasters, which can be caused by gales and
littoral marine storms, tropical cyclones, waterspouts, tsunamis
Source: CASTRO, 2003

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Our study area is located in the municipality of Matola, it is an area of

the confluence between two administrative posts Infulene and Machava namely it is in this area
Where can we find the neighborhoods of Ndlavela and Infulene or Unidade D belonging to the Post?
administrative of Infulene and Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso that belong to the post
administrative area of Machava is limited to the South by the neighborhoods Infulene 'A', Lusaka Agreement
In Infulene Valley, to the North by the neighborhoods 1st of May and Congolote, to the East by the neighborhood Green Zone.

the T3 neighborhood and to the West by the neighborhoods of Bunhiça, Machava-Sede and Singathela respectively, in
 8

geographic terms this area is located between the parallels 25° 51' and 25° South and between the
meridians 53'32" 30' E 32º 32' East.

Figure 1: Location of the study area.

Source: Authors, 2021

2.2. Methodology

The present study is based in an area of confluence between the neighborhoods.

Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso and Unity or Infulene 'D' in the Administrative Post
from Infulene and Machava located in the municipality of Matola, where the main objective is to
determine the areas at risk of flooding occurrence, the areas with the highest probability of
occurrence and impacts of changes in factors related to local drainage.

The main methodological procedures adopted for the present study were:
Theoretical review on the topic, obtaining the cartographic base, integration of cartographic data.
in a GIS environment, processing of spatial data and field activity. The methodology
developed in this research aimed to analyze the risk of flooding occurrence
In urban occupations, from this perspective, four models were developed from which will be
presented sequentially throughout the work.
 9

In this sense, to achieve the proposed objectives for this research, it was resorted to
the AHP methodology (Analytic Hierarchy Process), reproduced by SAATY (1977), for
determine statistical weights for the selected variables represented in the maps
thematic. They are: hypsometry, declivity, and land use and occupation.

According to HORA and GOMES (2009), the elements that present the greatest
The importance in a flood risk study are: Geological (Pedology/Soil), Geomorphology
(Slope and Hypsometry) and finally Land Use (Classification of occupations and land cover)
only), but in this study the type of soil in the study area was added.

The compilation of the variables defined for this study was done through weighting.
the variables or data when their susceptibility to flooding occurs, for this were
defined values or ranges that vary from 0 (Zero) to 7 (Seven), where 0 (Zero) indicates areas
less susceptible to flooding and 7 (Seven) areas more susceptible to risk
flood.

ArcGis software was used for the preparation and overlay of the data/variables.
10.1, where in the first phase it was necessary to use images from the Digital Terrain Model (DTM)
that contains terrain elevation data disregarding buildings and vegetation, which was
used for generating the information plan hypsometry and slope

The altitude quotas were classified and weighted into seven grade classes, as per
Frame 1 is converted to raster format with a spatial resolution of 5x5 m (pixel). In
sequence, the slope map was generated in raster format, where the slope classes
They were reclassified into seven classes and assigned a rating according to what is presented in table 1.

Table 1 - Classification of altimetry and relief in relation to percentages of

slope and the respective values related to the classes

Altimetries Note Slope % Note

61.1 – 69 0 More than 22.15 0

57.1 – 61 one 12.68 - 22.14 1

53.1 - 57 2 -3.641 2
 10

49.1 - 53 3 -2.690 3
44.1 – 49
4 4.428 - 6.337 4

38.1 – 44 5 1.9998 - 4.427 5

29 - 38 6 0 – 1.9999 6
Source: Authors, 2021

The land use and occupation map was generated from the mapping. The classification
It was done through the supervised method, option 'Classification', using several samples.
from the pixel of the satellite image, from the database of ArcGis 10.3 software, classified and
weighted in five classes of land use and occupation (Table 2).

Table 2 - Classification of land use and occupation and types of soil and the
respective values related to the classes.
Class Note Class Note
Residential Area Semi-Urbanization 8 Orange sandy soils 2
Wetland 10 reddish sandy soils 7
Source: Authors, 2021

To create the flood risk map, it was necessary to superimpose the

variables with resources to the raster calculator tool, 'Raster Calculator'. The degree of
susceptibility was obtained from the sum of the values of the attribute table of the four maps,
use and land occupation, soil types, hypsometry and slope. The area most susceptible to
floods, the classification typology was based on the degree of susceptibility to
flood, on the synthesis map (Table 3).

Table 3 – Classes of susceptibility to flood risk

Flood Risk Weight Heart
No Risk 1 Dark Green
Low 3 Light Green
Medium 5 Orange
High 7 Red
Source: Authors, 2021

3. Results
 11

The elaboration of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) from the altimetric data, contours
of levels and points quoted from the study area, from which the hypsometric map was obtained and
slope, figures 2 and 3, respectively. The altimetry of the convergence area between the neighborhoods
Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso and Infulene 'D' vary between 29 to 69 meters in altitude
As illustrated in (Figure 2), generally, the highest altitudes are located in the northern portion of the

study area. The altimetry shows a decrease in the north-south direction, that is, from the neighborhoods São
Dâmaso and Ndlavela for the neighborhoods Infulene 'D' and Patrice Lumumba respectively, this being
the last neighborhood that shows the lowest elevation.

Figure 2: Hypsometry. Figure 3: Slope.

Figure 5: land use Figure 4: Soil Type

Source: CENACARTA, adapted by the authors, 2021.

The slope is the degree of inclination of the slopes to a horizontal axis, and it is a
fundamental factor in identifying the areas most susceptible to flooding. The largest
Slopes occur to the south, where they vary between 9 to 22.4% while the lower ones are from 0 to 4%.

However, there are flat slopes distributed throughout the study area (Figure 3).
Figure 4 shows the land use and occupation classes. It is possible to verify the area where it is...
 12

focus a larger area of urbanization, as well as the presence of an area dedicated to practice of
dryland farming, it should be noted that these soil use data for the area have not yet been
updated. The soil has a great responsibility in the drainage and infiltration of water. The
Figure 5 shows the types of soil (reddish sandy and yellowish sandy). The type of soil
the predominant type is yellowish sandy.

Figure 5 - Flood Risk Map

Source: CENACARTA adapted by the Authors, 2021

The development of the flood risk map allowed for the observation of factors of the causes of
floods. From the analysis of Figure 5, the areas of low risk became more evident, having in
given that such areas coincide with the areas of highest altitudes in the municipality, which for cases
Flood-prone areas tend to be regions of lower risk, especially when there are watercourses.
cutting the relief and directing the drainage to lower areas

How much did the factors chosen in the present research influence the emergence of
areas with high flood risk, highlighting the concentrations of residential areas
semi-urbanized areas located in the area that was once the water passage. The lack or absence of
 13

urban expansion planning not only in the analyzed neighborhoods but also in the municipality can
be one of the main reasons for the occurrence of the problem, however the waterproofing almost
the total of many urbanized areas is a concerning factor to be considered for the current days,
since the problem (floods), as well as its causes and contributing factors, is not
unknown to humanity and science.

3.1. Data discussions.

According to the flood map, there is a predominance of low altitudes in the area.
where the urban perimeter is located, varying from 29 to 39 m. This confirms the preference of
people for the occupation of the flatter areas where there are fertile lands for agricultural practice and
other activities. The flood scenarios were obtained considering the levels from 0 to 1%; 1 to
2%; 2 to 4%; 4 to 6%; 6 to 9%; 9 to 12% and finally 12 to 22%. After the comparison of the floodable area
for each neighborhood, it was observed that, predominantly, the Infulene 'D' and Patrice neighborhoods
Lumumba are the most susceptible to flooding due to the lower elevations of these neighborhoods and of
proximity of these to the watercourse (figures 6, 7, 8, and 9).

Figure 6: Study area 4 days after the rain in February 2021

Figure 7: Areas that were once waterways are now occupied by housing.
 14

Source:Authors. 2021

The neighborhoods Ndlavela and São Dâmaso are less susceptible to flooding, as they are located
at a higher altitude compared to the more susceptible neighborhoods as illustrated by the
synthesis map, on flood risk.

4. Conclusion

This article aimed to analyze and map flood risk areas in the area of
confluence between the neighborhoods Ndlavela, Patrice Lumumba, São Dâmaso and Infulene 'D', where the

Based on the analyses and discussions of the data in this work, we can infer that the identification of the
areas that present flood risk through cartographic representation, the detection and
prevention of possible disasters, as well as the monitoring of the main elements
triggers are of important relevance for urban centers, so that they are
avoided losses (economic, environmental, and of lives).

The Hierarchical Analysis (AHP) used in this work represents a crucial factor in
elaboration of the final mapping, considering the importance not only of taking into account the
most relevant environmental variables for the case, as well as to weigh them accordingly
susceptibility to the problem, as well as the areas of human occupation show greater
flood risks, precisely due to the intense sealing of the soils by the constructions
the improper occupation of areas near the river floodplains. The study conducted in this research
it proves effective as it coincides with the main cases and historical accounts of flooding in
municipality.
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In general terms, conducting an analysis of the risk map of occurrences of burials in

The study area presents a flood risk in proportional terms.
medium that tends to progress to high risk as we leave the Ndlavela and São neighborhoods
Dâmaso which are upstream neighborhoods for the Patrice Lumumba and Infulene/Unit D neighborhoods that
They are downstream, that is, the number of high-risk sectors is significantly higher in the neighborhoods.
Patrice Lumumba and Infulene/Unit D in relation to the neighborhoods Ndlavela and São Dâmaso, what
it may apparently be a reflection of the influence of geomorphological and hydrographic conditions and
local socioeconomic.

The result obtained provides material of interest for the analysis of quality of the
mobility of the municipality, in addition to being a source of information with various applications.

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