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 second edition

climate
change
The Science, Impacts and Solutions

A. Barrie Pittock
 SECOND EDITION

CLIMATE
CHANGE
The Science, Impacts and Solutions

A. BARRIE PITTOCK

publishing for a sustainable future

© CSIRO 2009

All rights reserved. Except under the conditions described in the Australian Copyright Act 1968 and subsequent
amendments, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, duplicating or otherwise, without the
prior permission of the copyright owner. Contact CSIRO PUBLISHING for all permission requests.

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Pittock, A. Barrie, 1938–
Climate change : the science, impacts and solutions / A.
Barrie Pittock.
2nd ed.
9780643094840 (pbk.)
Includes index.
Bibliography.
Climatic changes – Government policy.
Climatic changes – Risk assessment.
Global environmental change.
Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric.
Global warming.
551.6

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.

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 CONTENTS

Foreword ix
Acknowledgements xi
Introduction xiii

1 Climate change matters 1

Turning up the heat 2
Why is the present rapid warming happening? 7
The importance of delayed climate responses 10
Observed impacts 12
Trends in human vulnerability 15
Projections of future climate change 16
Facing the challenge 17
Conclusion 18
Endnotes 19

2 Learning from the past 23

Proxy data: clues from the past 24
The record of the ice ages 26
The causes of past climate change 27
Variations in the Earth’s orbit 28
Role of greenhouse gases in amplifying climate changes 29
Variations in solar output 30
Volcanoes, cosmic collisions and aerosols 31
Rapid climate changes in the past 32
The last 10 000 years 35
Conclusions from the past record 37
Endnotes 39

3 Projecting the future 43

The need for, and nature of, foresight 43
Predictions, scenarios and projections 44
iv CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS

The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC 45

Projections of socio-economic futures 49
Forecasting the weather 51
Why climate projections are different 52
How good are climate models? 53
The state of climate projections 56
Endnotes 57

4 Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain 59

Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made 59
Uncertainty in climate change projections 60
From polarisation to probability and risk 63
Estimating risk 67
Uncertainty and the role of sceptics 69
Application of the ‘precautionary principle’ 73
Endnotes 74

5 What climate changes are likely? 77

Projected climate changes 78
Surface warming 80
Regional warmings 82
Precipitation and evaporation 82
Extreme events 84
Sea-level rise 87
Thresholds and abrupt or irreversible changes 93
Scenarios in a nutshell 97
Endnotes 99

6 Impacts: why be concerned? 107

Climate change impacts – reasons for concern 109
Thresholds and abrupt changes 110
Risks to unique and threatened systems 111
Risks from extreme climate events 115
Distribution of impacts 118
Aggregate impacts 121
 CONTENTS v

Waking the sleeping giants 122

Effects of a breakdown in the ocean circulation 122
Rapid sea-level rise from melting ice sheets 124
Runaway carbon dynamics 125
Security implications 126
Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations 126
Growing reasons for concern 128
Endnotes 129

7 Adaptation: living with climate change 133

Adaptation concepts and strategies 133
Costs and benefits of adaptation 136
Implementation 137
Effects of different rates of climatic change 140
Equity issues in adaptation 141
Enhancing adaptive capacity 144
Endnotes 145

8 Mitigation: limiting climate change 149

Why mitigation is necessary 149
Targets: how much mitigation is needed? 150
Where we are now 157
How difficult is mitigation? 159
The looming peak in oil production 165
Mitigation options 167
Increased energy efficiency 167
Changes in infrastructure and behaviour 170
Fuel substitution 172
Nuclear power 174
Hydropower 176
Solar energy 177
Wind power 180
Biomass energy 182
Tidal and wave energy 186
vi CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS

Geothermal power 187

The hydrogen economy 188
Carbon capture and sequestration 190
Land-based carbon sinks 194
Geoengineering possibilities 197
Technological innovation: attitude is vital 201
The road to effective mitigation 202
Endnotes 206

9 Climate change in context 223

Surface air pollution and climate change 225
Stratospheric ozone depletion 225
Land-use change, biodiversity, agriculture and forestry 226
Land degradation and desertification 227
Freshwater supply 227
Population growth 229
Synergies and trade-offs 231
Integration, sustainable development and equity 232
Postscript: connections between economic and climate crises 234
Endnotes 236

10 The politics of greenhouse 239

Is the science credible? 239
What about the uncertainty? 241
How realistic are the scenarios? 242
Choosing global and local emissions targets 243
How urgently do we need to act? 246
How much will reducing emissions cost? 247
Meeting targets most efficiently 249
International equity: what is fair? 254
The importance of equity within countries 260
Equity between generations 261
The role of governments and NGOs 262
What role should business take? 264
 CONTENTS vii

The role of state and local governments 268

So what are the politics of greenhouse? 270
Endnotes 271

11 International concern and national interests 277

A brief history 277
The Kyoto Protocol 280
National interests and climate change 282
African nations 283
Australia and New Zealand 284
China 289
European Union 291
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh 293
Latin America 295
The Russian Federation 296
Small Island States 298
United States of America 300
The common interest in global solutions 306
Endnotes 307

12 Accepting the challenge 317

Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol 321
Addressing the key issues 324
Endnotes 326

Glossary (with acronyms) 329

Index 337
 FOREWORD

Barrie Pittock has been a leading researcher of An extremely eloquent statement is conveyed in
considerable standing worldwide on various the title of Chapter 4, which states ‘Uncertainty is
aspects of climate change. The quality and content inevitable, but risk is certain’. This really is the key
of research carried out by him has established a message in this book particularly as it goes on to
benchmark that sets the standard for several of his describe the impacts of climate change, the
peers and provides a model for young researchers. seriousness with which these should be considered
In this book he has provided a comprehensive and the imperative need for adaptation. In Chapter 8
analysis of various aspects of climate change, which a comprehensive and detailed assessment is
he begins by examining the physical and biological provided on several mitigation actions. The volume
aspects of climate change and a detailed analysis of ends by making a logical transition into political
the science of the climate system. The book assumes issues that have national as well as international
great topical interest for the reader because of several dimensions.
questions that the author has posed and attempted For sheer breadth and comprehensiveness of
to answer, such as the recent heatwave that took coverage, Barrie Pittock’s book fills a unique void
place in Paris in the summer of 2003, the frequency in the literature in this field. Coming as it does from
of closure of the Thames barrier, and the melting of an author who knows the scientific and technical
glaciers which affects not only parts of Europe but complexities of the whole subject, this book should
even the high mountain glaciers in the Himalayas. be seen as a valuable reference for scientists and
A study of paleoclimate is an important policymakers alike.
component of present-day climate change research, In my view, which is shared by a growing body
and the book goes through a lucid and useful of concerned citizens worldwide, climate change is
assessment of the evidence that is available to us a challenge faced by the global community that will
today in understanding and quantifying the nature require unprecedented resolve and increasing
and extent of climate change in the past. Also ingenuity to tackle in the years ahead. Efforts to be
presented in considerable detail are projections of made would need to be based on knowledge and
climate change in the future including a discussion informed assessment of the future. Barrie Pittock’s
of the emissions scenarios developed and used by book provides information and analysis that will
the IPCC and projections obtained from it as well as greatly assist and guide decision makers on what
from other sources. needs to be done.

DR RAJENDRA K PACHAURI
Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute, India and
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2005
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This book is the result of many years working on These are: Figures 1, 7, 10, 15, 16, 17, and 28 (all
climate change, nearly all based in CSIRO unchanged) from IPCC; Figure 4 from UK
Atmospheric Research (now part of CSIRO Marine Environment Agency; Figure 5 from INVS, France;
and Atmospheric Research) in Australia and Figure 9 from David Etheridge, CSIRO; Figures 13,
especially with the Intergovernmental Panel on 14, and 26 from Roger Jones, CSIRO; Figure 18 from
Climate Change (IPCC). I therefore thank many US NASA; Figure 19, 20, and 21 from the US
colleagues in CSIRO and many others from numerous National Snow and Ice Data Center; Figure 23 from
countries whom I met through IPCC or other forums. T. Coleman, Insurance Group Australia; Figure 28
My views have been influenced by their collective from the Water Corporation, Western Australia;
research and arguments, as well as my own research, Figure 30 from Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA Goddard
and I owe them all a debt of gratitude. Institute for Space Science; Figure 31 from Martin
A book such as this inevitably draws from and Dix of CSIRO and courtesy of the modelling groups,
builds on the work that has gone before it. Since the Programme for Climate Model Diagnosis and
subtle changes in wording can easily lead to Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) of the
misinterpretation in this field, some content in this World Climate Research Programme; Figure 33
book has been carefully paraphrased from, or from CSIRO Climate Impacts Group and
closely follows the original sources to ensure Government of New South Wales; Figure 34 from
accuracy. Some sections in the present book are Greg Bourne, now at WWF Australia; Figure 35
drawn from the following: parts of the IPCC Reports, from the Murray-Darling Basin Commission; and
especially the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007; a Figure 36 from Kathy McInnes, CSIRO and
book that I edited for the Australian Greenhouse Chalapan Kaluwin, AMSAT, Fiji.
Office (AGO) in 2003 Climate Change: An Australian Particular people I want to thank are:
Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts; and a paper
From CSIRO: Tom Beer, Willem Bouma, Peter K
I wrote for the journal Climatic Change in 2002 ‘What
Campbell, John Church, Kevin Hennessy, Paul
we know and don’t know about climate change:
Holper, Roger Jones, Kathy McInnes, Simon Torok,
reflections on the IPCC TAR’ (Climatic Change vol.
Penny Whetton, and John Wright. Also Rachel
53, pp. 393–411). This applies particularly to parts of
Anning (UK Environment Agency), Martin Beniston
Chapter 3 on projecting the future, Chapter 5 on
(Universite de Fribourg, Switzerland), Andre Berger
projected climate changes, Chapter 6 on impacts
(Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium), Greg
and Chapter 7 on adaptation concepts. I thank the
Bourne (WWF, Australia), Mark Diesendorf
AGO, the IPCC and Springer (publishers of Climatic
(University of NSW), Pascal Empereur-Bissonnet
Change) for permission to use some common
(INVS, France), Andrew Glikson (ANU), James
wording. I have endeavoured to acknowledge all
Hansen (NASA GISS), Dale Hess (BoM and CSIRO,
sources in the text, captions or endnotes, however, if
Australia), William Howard (U. Tasmania), Murari
any have been overlooked I apologise to the original
Lal (Climate, Energy and Sustainable Development
authors and/or publishers.
Analyis Centre, India), Keith Lovegrove (ANU);
The following Figures come from other sources,
Mark Maslin (U. College London, UK),
who granted permission to use them, for which
Mike MacCracken (Climate Institute, Washington),
I am grateful. Some have been modified, and the
Tony McMichael (ANU, Australia), Bettina Menne
original sources are not responsible for any changes.
xii CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS

(WHO, Italy), Neville Nicholls (BoM, Australia), Post-Retirement Fellow, and more recently as an
Martin Parry (Jackson Institute, UK), Jamie Pittock Honorary Fellow. Special thanks also to Paul Durack
(WWF and ANU, Australia), Thomas W. Pogge and Roger Jones for help with Figures, and to John
(Columbia University, USA), Alan Robock (Rutgers Manger, Ann Crabb (first edition), Tracey Millen
University), Brian Sadler (IOCI, Australia), David and colleagues at CSIRO Publishing. Their insightful
Spratt (Carbon Equity, Australia), Philip Sutton and helpful editing comments and discussions have
(Greenleap Strategic Insitute, Australia), and greatly improved the book.
Christopher Thomas (NSW GH Office, Australia). The views expressed in this work are my own
Probably I have omitted some people who helped, and do not necessarily represent the views of
and apologise to them for my oversight. CSIRO, the AGO, the IPCC or other parties.
Special thanks goes to Graeme Pearman and Finally, I want to thank my partner Diana Pittock,
Greg Ayers, successive Chiefs of CSIRO Atmos- for her support and forbearance during the writing
pheric Research and CMAR, for my position as a and extensive revision of this book.
 INTRODUCTION

Human-induced climate change is a huge, highly Back in 1972 I wrote a paper entitled ‘How
topical and rapidly changing subject. New books, important are climatic changes?’ It concluded that
reports and scientific papers on the subject are human dependence on a stable climate might be
appearing with amazing frequency. It is tempting more critical than was generally believed. This
to say that if they were all piled in a heap and buried dependence, I argued, is readily seen in the
underground the amount of carbon so sequestered relationship between rainfall patterns and patterns
would solve the problem. But seriously, there is a of land and water use, including use for industrial
need to justify yet another book on the subject. and urban purposes. The paper argued that the
This book is a substantial update of my Climate severity of the economic adjustments required by a
Change: Turning Up the Heat (2005). That book change in climate depend on the relation between
was meant as a serious discussion of the science, the existing economy and its climatic environment,
implications and policy questions arising, addressed and the rapidity of climate change.
to an educated non-specialist audience. It presented My first projections of possible future patterns of
both sides of many arguments, rather than adopting climate change were published in 1980, based on
a racy and simplified advocacy position. It was, in the early findings of relatively crude computer
the words of some friends, a ‘solid read’. It found a models of climate, combined with a look at the
niche as a tertiary textbook in many multi- contrasts between individual warm and cold years,
disciplinary courses, where its objectivity and paleo-climatic reconstructions of earlier warm
comprehensiveness were appreciated. epochs, and some theoretical arguments.
Developments since 2005, in the science, the In 1988 I founded the Climate Impact Group in
observations and the politics of climate change are so CSIRO in Australia. This group sought to bridge the
substantial that they warrant major changes to both gap between climate modellers, with their projections
the content and tone of the book. Hence the new title of climate change and sea-level rise, and people
Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions. interested in the potential effects on crops, water
The urgency of the climate change challenge is resources, coastal zones and other parts of the
now far more apparent than in 2005, with new natural and social systems and environment. Despite
observations showing that on many fronts climate reservations from some colleagues who wanted
change and its impacts are occurring faster than greater certainty before going public on scientific
expected. There is a growing probability that we are findings that identify risk, the Climate Impact Group
approaching or have already passed one or more approach of publicly quantifying risk won wide
‘tipping points’ that may lead to irreversible trends. respect. This culminated in the award in 1999 of an
This is now well documented, but there is a need for Australian Public Service Medal, and in 2003 of the
a concise and accurate summary of the evidence Sherman Eureka Prize for Environmental Research,
and its implications for individual and joint action. one of Australia’s most prestigious national awards
The message is not new, but a growing sense of for environmental science.
urgency is needed, and clarity about the choices The object of the CSIRO Climate Impact Group’s
and opportunities is essential. It is also essential to endeavours was never to make exact predictions of
convey the need for continual updating, and to what will happen, because we recognised that there
provide the means to do so via relevant regular are inevitable uncertainties about both the science
publications, learned journals and websites. and socio-economic conditions resulting from
xiv CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS

human behaviour. Rather, we sought to provide the Further pointers towards urgency have arisen
best possible advice as to what might happen, its from the well-documented observations in the
impacts on society, and on the consequences of last two years of more rapid climate change, and of
various policy choices, so that decision-makers the kicking in of positive feedback (amplifying)
could make informed risk assessments and choices processes that lead to an acceleration of global
that would influence future outcomes. warming and sea-level rise. Carbon dioxide
These days, writing, or even updating a book on concentrations, global warming and sea-level rise
a ‘hot topic’ like climate change is a bit of a wild are all tracking near the upper end of the range of
ride. Lots of things keep happening during the uncertainty in the 2007 IPCC report.
process. This includes the US Presidential election Arctic sea ice is melting more rapidly than
of November 2008, the international economic projected in the IPCC report, and reached a
crisis, and the wild fluctuations in the price of oil. startlingly low minimum extent in September 2007.
The implications of such events remain to be played Moreover, permafrost is melting, floating ice shelves
out, and are merely touched on in this book. Several have rapidly disintegrated by processes not
other major developments have stood out in the previously considered, forests are burning more
case of this book and are dealt with more fully. frequently, droughts in mid-latitudes are getting
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change worse, and so it goes.
(IPCC) report in 2007 strongly confirmed that All this leads to the possibility of apocalyptic
climate change due to human activities is happening outcomes, with associated gloom and doom: multi-
and that its consequences are likely to be serious. metre sea-level rise displacing millions of people,
Further, it broadly confirmed the findings of the UK regional water shortages and mass starvation,
Stern Review that the consequences of climate conflict and economic disaster. Faced with such
change under business-as-usual scenarios are likely possibilities, three broad psychological reactions
to be far more expensive than efforts to limit climate are likely: nihilism (it’s all hopeless so let’s enjoy
change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It ourselves while we can), fundamentalism (falling
also pointed out that stabilising concentrations of back on some rigid set of beliefs such as that God,
carbon dioxide equivalent (treating all greenhouse or the free market, will save us), or activism in the
gases as if they were carbon dioxide) at 450 ppm belief that we can still deal with the problem if we
still leaves a more than 50% chance of global apply ourselves with a sufficient sense of urgency.
warmings greater than 2°C relative to preindustrial I tend to favour the third approach, in the belief
conditions, and possibly as high as 3°C. that human beings are intelligent creatures and that
We are thus forced to consider whether in order with ingenuity and commitment we can achieve the
to avoid dangerous climate change we must keep seemingly unachievable, as happened in the Second
greenhouse gas concentrations well below 450 ppm World War and the Space Race. There is also still a
carbon dioxide equivalent. This is a ‘big ask’, as lot of uncertainty, and the situation may not be quite
concentrations of carbon dioxide alone are already as bad as we may fear, so let’s give it a good try.
in 2008 about 380 ppm and rising at an increasing A few contrarians continue to raise the same
rate, recently about 2 ppm each year. This highlights tired objections that some particular observations
the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions or details are in doubt. They continue to accuse
far below present levels in the next decade, rather climate modellers of neglecting well-recognised
than several decades down the track. Indeed, IPCC mechanisms like solar variability or water vapour
suggests that to stabilise greenhouse gas effects, which have long been included in climate
concentrations at less than 450 ppm may require us modelling. They refuse to look at the balance of
to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere after it evidence as presented in the IPCC reports, and
has overshot this target. prefer to seize on the odd observation that might
 INTRODUCTION xv

not fit, or some alternative theory, without applying and act now to really push for a reduction in
the same scepticism to their favoured ‘fact’ or greenhouse emissions this decade. Climate change,
theory. Others set out a false dichotomy between abrupt or not, is a real risk. It is also a challenge
combating climate change and other global and an opportunity for innovative thinking and
problems, or propagate scare stories about the cost action. With a bit of luck and a lot of skill, we can
of reducing emissions. transform the challenge of climate change into a
Responsible decision-makers must follow a risk positive opportunity. Reducing greenhouse gas
management strategy, and look at the balance of emissions will also help avoid other environmental
evidence, the full range of uncertainty, and put damages and promote sustainable development
climate change in the context of other global and greater equity between peoples and countries.
problems, which in general exacerbate each other. Public opinion and government attitudes are
I favour the advice and examples of the social and changing rapidly, even in countries whose
technological optimists and entrepreneurs who governments have been slow to commit to urgent
argue and demonstrate that we can rapidly develop action on climate change. One of the stand-out
a prosperous future with low greenhouse gas reluctant countries, my very own Australia, has
emissions if we put our minds to it. That way we can recently committed itself, after a change of
improve living standards both in the industrialised government, to the Kyoto Protocol and the new
and developing countries, while minimising the negotiation process for more stringent emissions
risks and costs of climate change damage. Necessity, reductions in the future. New information is being
as the saying goes, is the mother of invention. We are absorbed and stronger advocacy is convincing
not short of inventions that might conserve energy people it is time to act. The ‘former next President
and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. What is of the United States’, Al Gore, has been influential
needed is a commitment to developing these into with his film and book An Inconvenient Truth.
large-scale production and application, with the Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 convinced people
implicit opportunity for new more energy-efficient that even rich countries like the United States are
and sustainable technologies. Efficiency, that is, vulnerable to climate disasters, and numerous
using less energy, can be profitable, and the large- books advocating action, such as those by George
scale application of renewable energy technologies Monbiot, Mark Lynas and Tim Flannery have
can reduce their cost until they are competitive. appeared and sold well.
While acknowledged uncertainties mean we are Above all, IPCC has been forthright, if still
dealing with risks rather than certainties, the risks guarded, in its statements. Along with Al Gore and
will increase over coming decades if we do not act. many other activists, the IPCC 2007 report has
If we sit back and say to ourselves that the risks are stirred the world to action, as was recognised by the
too small to worry about, or too costly to prevent, awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and
they are likely to catch up with us all too soon. We, the IPCC in 2007.
as consumers, business people and members of the However, even the IPCC is inevitably behind the
public can turn things around by our choices and times, as its 2007 report only assessed new material
especially by making our opinions known. We do up to about May 2006. Much new information has
not have to wait for national governments to act, or become available since then, and I have attempted
for laws and taxes to compel us. Individual and to summarise it in what follows. This book is meant
group choices, initiatives, ingenuity, innovation and to continue the process of developing and informing
action can achieve wonders. an intelligent approach to meeting the challenge of
However, our individual and corporate actions climate change and seizing the opportunity to help
would be far more more effective if we could create a better and more sustainable world where
persuade governments to recognise the urgency other global problems can also be addressed. It is
xvi CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS

intended to answer, in readily understood terms, Hope lies not only in science, but in going
frequently asked questions about climate change, beyond the science to grapple with the policy
such as: questions and the moral imperatives that the
scientific projections throw into stark relief. In this
s 7HAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL CLIMATE
book I go some way down this road, making direct
variations and human-induced climate change?
links between the science and the consequences,
s 7HAT ARE THE MAJOR CONCERNS REGARDING CLIMATE which are important for policy. If this encourages
change? you to address the issues, to make your own
assessment of the risk, and to act accordingly, this
s 7HY ARE THERE ARGUMENTS ABOUT THE REALITY OF
book will have achieved its purpose.
climate change, and its policy implications?
Now a few words to the serious student of
s (OW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE RELATE TO OTHER PROBLEMS climate change on how to use this book.
like population growth, poverty, pollution and First, it covers a huge range of subjects and
land degradation? disciplines from physics, chemistry and the other
‘hard’ and social sciences, to politics and policy. My
s (OW URGENT IS THE PROBLEM 7HAT CAN WE DO
original expertise was in physics (with a side
about it, and how much will it cost?
interest in anthropology), so I have been forced to
This book is meant, in a concise and learn about the other subjects from books, papers
understandable manner, to sort fact from fiction. It and especially from websites and talking to people.
recognises that uncertainties are inevitable, and sets Climate change is an overarching topic, and the
climate change in a framework of assessing climate reality is that everything is connected to everything
risk alongside all the other human problems about else (for example see Chapter 9), so policy-relevance
which we have imperfect knowledge. It should help requires an enquiring and open mind.
readers to choose a sensible course between the Second, there is a set of endnotes at the end of
head-in-the-sand reaction of some contrarians and each chapter. These not only document what is said
the doom-and-gloom view of some alarmists. It (often including opposing points of view),
builds on the scientific base of the well-tested and but supply pointers to more information, and
accepted reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on especially to websites or ongoing publications
Climate Change, putting the findings in the context where you can update what is in the book. Frankly,
of other human concerns. nobody can be expected to keep up to date in detail
We must look beyond the doom and gloom. on every aspect of climate change science and
Projections of rapid climate change with severe policy. The number of scientific papers on the
consequences are a prophecy, not in the sense that subject has grown exponentially over the last
they are bound to come true, but in the sense of a decade. One of my colleagues estimates that if every
prophetic warning that if we continue on our relevant scientific publication since the IPCC 2007
present course these are the logical consequences. report is referenced in the next edition in three or
Modern scientific ‘prophets of doom’ follow in the four years’ time, it would require about a thousand
tradition of the Old Testament prophets. The Biblical pages just to list all the references. I have selected
prophets were not preaching damnation, but websites and learned journals in my endnotes that
appealing for a change of direction, so that will enable you to keep up where you can, but even
damnation could be avoided. Similarly, climate that is not complete – I have obviously missed or
scientists who warn about potentially dangerous selected from a larger number of relevant references.
climate change hope that such forebodings will But web searches these days are amazingly efficient
motivate people to act to avoid the danger. at finding what you need to know. Use them well
 INTRODUCTION xvii

and with good judgement as to the reliability and challenge of climate change. If the urgency is as
possible biases of the source. great as I fear it is, it is us and our children, alive
Finally, I want to dedicate this book to my today, who will have to deal with the consequences.
grandchildren, Jenny, Ella, Kyan and Gem, whose We can have a positive influence on our children’s
future is at stake, along with that of all future future.
generations. It is for them that we must meet the
 1
Climate change matters

Today, global climate change is a fact. The climate has changed visibly, tangibly, measurably.
An additional increase in average temperatures is not only possible, but very probable, while
human intervention in the natural climate system plays an important, if not decisive role.
BRUNO PORRO, CHIEF RISK OFFICER, SWISS REINSURANCE, 2002.1

Climate change is a major concern in relation to the minerals sector and sustainable
development. It is, potentially, one of the greatest of all threats to the environment, to
biodiversity and ultimately to our quality of life.
FACING THE FUTURE, MINING MINERALS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AUSTRALIA, 2002.2

We, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency – a threat to the survival of
our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential even as we gather here.
But there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst
– though not all – of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.
AL GORE, NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LECTURE, 10 DECEMBER 2007.3

Climate is critical to the world as we know it. The huge investments of time and money. Trade,
landscape, and the plants and animals in it, are all particularly of food and fibre for manufactured
determined to a large extent by climate acting over goods, has also been strongly influenced by climate.
long intervals of time. Over geological time, climate Roads, buildings and towns are designed taking
has helped to shape mountains, build up the soil, local climate into consideration. Design rules, both
determine the nature of the rivers, and build flood formal and informal, zoning and safety standards
plains and deltas. At least until the advent of are developed to cope not just with average climate
irrigation and industrialisation, climate determined but also with climatic extremes such as floods and
food supplies and where human beings could live. droughts. If the climate changes, human society
Today, with modern technology, humans can live must adapt by changing its designs, rules and
in places where it was impossible before. This is infrastructure – often at great expense, especially
achieved by the provision of buildings and complex for retrofitting existing infrastructure.
infrastructure tuned to the existing climate, such as In broad terms, ‘climate’ is the typical range of
urban and rural water supplies, drainage, bridges, weather, including its variability, experienced at a
roads and other communications. These involve particular place. It is often expressed statistically, in
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