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INDONESIA’S
TRANSFORMATION
and the Stability of Southeast Asia

Angel Rabasa • Peter Chalk

Prepared for the United States Air Force

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

Project AIR FORCE

R
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air
Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of
Plans, Hq USAF.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Rabasa, Angel.
Indonesia’s transformation and the stability of Southeast Asia / Angel Rabasa,
Peter Chalk.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
“MR-1344.”
ISBN 0-8330-3006-X
1. National security—Indonesia. 2. Indonesia—Strategic aspects. 3. Indonesia—
Politics and government—1998– 4. Asia, Southeastern—Strategic aspects. 5.
National security—Asia, Southeastern. I. Chalk, Peter. II. Title.

UA853.I5 R33 2001

959.804—dc21
2001031904

Cover Photograph: Moslem Indonesians shout “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) as they
demonstrate in front of the National Commission of Human Rights in Jakarta,
10 January 2000. Courtesy of AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE (AFP) PHOTO/Dimas.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and

decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND ® is a
registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect
the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.

Cover design by Maritta Tapanainen

© Copyright 2001 RAND

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any

form by any electronic or mechanical means (including
photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval)
without permission in writing from RAND.

Published 2001 by RAND

1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050
201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/
To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information,
contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002;
Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected]
 PREFACE

Indonesia is undergoing a systemic political transition that could

lead to a variety of outcomes, from the consolidation of democracy
to regression to authoritarianism or disintegration. The stakes are
high. With a population of 212 million and a land mass greater than
the rest of Southeast Asia combined, vast natural resources, and a
strategic location straddling critical sea-lanes of communication and
straits, Indonesia is the key to Southeast Asian security. Therefore,
Indonesia’s choices and its evolution will frame the future of
Southeast Asia and influence the balance of power in the broader
Asia-Pacific region.

Influencing Indonesia’s transformation is the most critical challenge

to U.S. foreign and defense policy in Southeast Asia. This study
examines the trends and dynamics that are driving Indonesia’s trans-
formation, outlines Indonesia’s possible strategic futures and ana-
lyzes their implications for regional stability and U.S. security inter-
ests, and identifies options available to the United States and the U.S.
Air Force to respond to these challenges.

This research was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program

of Project AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff
for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the
Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This report should be
of value to the national security community and interested members
of the general public, especially those concerned with U.S. relations
with Indonesia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) and the future of the Asia-Pacific region. Comments are
welcome and should be sent to the authors, the project leader, Dr.

iii
iv Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia

Zalmay Khalilzad, or the director of the Strategy and Doctrine

Program, Dr. Edward Harshberger.

PROJECT AIR FORCE

Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the United States Air
Force’s federally funded research and development center (FFRDC)
for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent
analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs:
Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training;
Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
 CONTENTS

Preface ................................................................................... iii

Figures .................................................................................... vii
Tables ..................................................................................... ix
Summary ................................................................................ xi
Acknowledgments ................................................................... xvii
Acronyms ............................................................................... xix
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION: THE REGIONAL CONTEXT ................... 1
Geopolitical Importance of Southeast Asia ......................... 1
Evolution of the Southeast Asian Security Environment ...... 3
Chapter Two
INDONESIA’S FRAGILE DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENT ........ 9
The Political Dimension: From Suharto to Wahid ............... 9
The Economic Dimension ................................................. 15
Economic and Social Consequences of the
Economic Crisis ......................................................... 15
The Uncertain Path to Recovery ..................................... 17
Chapter Three
THE EAST TIMOR CRISIS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ......... 21
Chapter Four
THE CHALLENGE OF SEPARATISM AND ETHNIC AND
RELIGIOUS CONFLICT ..................................................... 27
Aceh: The Eye of the Storm ............................................... 27

v
vi Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia

Prospects for Peace in Aceh ............................................... 33

Separatism in Irian Jaya (Papua) ........................................ 37
Ethnic and Religious Violence in Eastern and
Central Indonesia ...................................................... 41
“Ethnic Cleansing” in Kalimantan ...................................... 45
Chapter Five
REINVENTING INDONESIA: THE CHALLENGE OF
DECENTRALIZATION ....................................................... 47
Chapter Six
THE MILITARY IN TRANSITION ........................................ 53
Organization, Missions, and Capabilities ............................ 53
The Territorial System and the Dual Function .................... 56
Civil-Military Relations from Suharto to Wahid ................... 59
Doctrinal Change in the TNI .............................................. 63
Chapter Seven
ALTERNATIVE INDONESIAN FUTURES ............................ 67
Democratic Consolidation ................................................. 67
Aborted Transition and Political Breakdown ....................... 70
Variants of Military Rule .................................................... 72
Worst-Case Scenarios: Radical Islamic Rule
and Disintegration ..................................................... 74
Probable Outcomes ........................................................... 75
Chapter Eight
REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF INDONESIAN
FUTURES ......................................................................... 77
Chapter Nine
MUSLIM SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS IN THE
PHILIPPINES AND THAILAND .......................................... 85
The Moro Insurgency ........................................................ 85
Prospects for Peace in the Philippines ................................ 92
Muslim Separatism in Southern Thailand ........................... 94
Chapter Ten
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE
U.S. AIR FORCE ................................................................. 99
Bibliography ........................................................................... 105
 FIGURES

Map of Indonesia ........................................................ xx

4.1. The Moluccas (Maluku and North Maluku) .................. 42
6.1. Major Indonesian Military Bases .................................. 55
6.2. Military Area Commands (Kodam) ............................... 57

vii
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 TABLES

1.1. Religious Composition of Central and Eastern

Indonesia .................................................................... 2
7.1. Possible Paths of Indonesian Political
Development .............................................................. 68
8.1. Regional Consequences of Indonesian
Scenarios .................................................................... 79

ix
 SUMMARY

The Republic of Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous state, is

in a process of profound political transformation. Depending on
how the process unfolds, Indonesia could evolve into a more stable
and democratic state, revert to authoritarianism, or break up into its
component parts—an Asian Yugoslavia but on an almost continental
scale.

Indonesia’s evolution could drive the Southeast Asian security envi-

ronment in either of two directions. A successful democratic transi-
tion in Indonesia would be a factor of stability in Southeast Asia and
beyond. Indonesia would become the world’s largest Muslim-
majority democracy—a development that could have a significant
impact on the political evolution of Asia and the Muslim world. It
could lead to the reconstruction of a Southeast Asian security system
grounded on democratic political principles. A stable Southeast Asia
would translate into reduced opportunities for potential Chinese
hegemonism and, by the same token, could facilitate China’s
emergence as a more influential actor without destabilizing the
regional balance of power.

Conversely, political deterioration or breakdown, the rise of Islamic

radicalism, or, in the worst-case scenario, violent disintegration,
would drive the regional security environment in the opposite direc-
tion. Southeast Asia would become more chaotic and unstable, less
inviting for investment and more prone to capital flight, and more
vulnerable to a bid for regional domination by a rising China.

Indonesia faces multiple interlocking challenges that threaten the

survival of its fragile democratic experiment. The economy has been

xi
xii Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia

recovering from the depth of the 1997–1998 crisis, but the recovery
remains fragile and vulnerable to exogenous and endogenous
shocks. Moreover, the underlying causes of the economic crisis—the
large public and private debt overhang and the insolvency of much
of the corporate and banking sector—remain unresolved.

At the same time, Indonesia is facing the most serious threat to its
territorial integrity since independence.1 The separation of East
Timor encouraged secessionist movements in the far more economi-
cally and politically important provinces of Aceh (in the northern tip
of Sumatra), Riau, and Irian Jaya (Papua) and demands for autonomy
and revenue sharing by other provinces. In tandem with secessionist
threats, religious and ethnic violence has been escalating in eastern
Indonesia. The growing separatist tendencies and sectarian violence
are generating stresses that the Indonesian political system may not
be able to withstand.

In an effort to mollify the provinces, the central government has

agreed to a wide-ranging decentralization plan. This devolution of
authority and resources to the provinces has a price, however. The
“old” Indonesia redistributed income from the resource-rich
provinces to the rest of the archipelago, especially the populous and
politically dominant island of Java. The new dispensation, if imple-
mented, could lead to the central government’s loss of control over
macroeconomic policy, increase the gap between the have and the
have-not provinces, and create a whole new set of internal tensions
that could threaten Indonesia’s unity.

The military, one of the few institutions that cuts across the divisions
of Indonesian society, will play a key role in the Republic’s evolution.
The military is withdrawing from its political role and is undergoing
significant doctrinal change. It is transferring internal security func-
tions to the newly separated national police and is considering the
abandonment of its territorial command structure. Implementation
of the new doctrine is far from certain and it will require enormous

______________
1 Arguably, Jakarta faced challenges that were just as serious in the Darul Islam revolt
of the early 1950s, the provincial rebellions of the mid and late 1950s, and the failed
Communist coup of 1965, but as Cribb and Brown point out, these were struggles over
the identity of Indonesia as a whole and not over whether Indonesia would survive in
its existing configuration. Robert Cribb and Colin Brown, Modern Indonesia: A History
Since 1945, Longman, London and New York, 1995, p. 160.
 Summary xiii

changes in the military’s organizational structure, training, and per-

sonnel practices.

Indonesia’s prospects for the short to medium term (one to three

years) are for a continuation of weak governments and worsening of
security conditions in provinces experiencing separatist or commu-
nal violence. President Wahid may resign or be removed from office
if he fails to reverse the erosion of his political support, but a succes-
sor government, presumably headed by current Vice President
Megawati Sukarnoputri, would not necessarily produce greater sta-
bility. Over the longer term, barring a lasting upturn in the economy
or a workable agreement with disaffected provinces, the odds are
better than even that one or more of the downside scenarios des-
cribed in Chapter Seven—a variant of military rule, an Islamic-
dominated government, or national disintegration—could come to
pass.

The overriding challenge for the United States is how to help shape
Indonesia’s evolution so that it will emerge as a stable democracy
and as a capable partner in maintaining regional security and stabil-
ity. The ability of the United States to engage the Indonesian gov-
ernment and military will be shaped by two factors: the domestic
environment in Indonesia and the geopolitical environment in Asia.
Indonesia’s evolution as a stable democracy would make it easier for
the United States to forge closer ties, particularly in the military
sphere. On the other hand, if the geopolitical environment in Asia
became more threatening, the need to work with the Jakarta gov-
ernment to restore security and stability in the region could override
other U.S. policy interests in Indonesia.

How should the United States reconcile its priorities with regard to
Indonesia? A possible approach is to establish a baseline for U.S. en-
gagement with Indonesia—defined in terms of what the United
States should do now. The level of engagement could be increased
or decreased depending on changes in conditions in Indonesia,
Southeast Asia, and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Steps that the
United States could immediately take include:

• Support for Indonesia’s stability and territorial integrity, both for

strategic reasons and because a stable and secure Indonesia is
also more likely to be democratic. First, the United States should
xiv Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia

work with Japan, other regional allies, and the international

financial institutions to provide the resources needed to assist
Indonesia in overcoming its multiple crises. Second, support for
Indonesia’s democratization and stability should not be made
contingent on the resolution of second-tier issues. Third, the
United States and the international community should refrain
from demanding more than the weakened Indonesian
government can deliver, particularly on issues that touch on
sensitive sovereignty concerns. In this regard, it is important to
be cognizant of how giving or withholding aid for Indonesia
plays in Indonesian politics—a miscue could result in weakening
rather than strengthening Indonesian democratic forces. It is
also important to set the correct tone of the public dialogue with
Indonesia. Indonesian political culture places great value in
indirection and ambiguity, and a perceived confrontational or
condescending approach would likely prove to be counter-
productive.
• Closer military-to-military ties. The United States has an oppor-
tunity to influence the thinking and evolution of the Indonesian
military at a time when that institution is looking for a new
model and is open to new ideas. To shift from a territorial-based
force with an internal security mission to a modern military
focused on external defense, the Indonesian armed forces need
the technical support and training that the U.S. military can
provide. At the same time, deeper engagement with the
Indonesian military would improve the ability of the United
States to promote a democratic model of military pro-
fessionalism. It would also enable the United States to involve
Indonesia as a full partner in efforts to foster intra-ASEAN
defense cooperation and interoperability.
• Assistance to prevent the further deterioration of Indonesian
defense capabilities, particularly air transport. An Indonesia that
lacks the capability to defend itself or respond to outbreaks of
ethnic or religious violence would be less likely to achieve a
successful transition to a stable democracy and could become a
source of regional instability. The escalating sectarian violence
in eastern Indonesia makes the rapid deployment of troops to
trouble spots a critical need. Restoring Indonesia’s air transport
capability should be a priority of U.S. assistance.
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