Trilateralism and Beyond Great Power Politics and The Korean Security Dilemma During and After The Cold War Robert A Wampler (Editor) No Waiting Time
Trilateralism and Beyond Great Power Politics and The Korean Security Dilemma During and After The Cold War Robert A Wampler (Editor) No Waiting Time
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Trilateralism and Beyond: Great Power Politics and the Korean Security Dilemma
During and After the Cold War
edited by robert a. wampler
Trilateralism and Beyond
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16 15 14 13 12 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Foreword
akira iriye vii
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction
robert a. wampler 1
Contributors 213
Index 215
Foreword
Akira Iriye
The National Security Archive has been a pioneer among scholarly communi-
ties in its persistent and successful efforts to gain access to governmental docu-
ments and its sponsorship of international research projects in which declassified
material forms the basis of historical inquiry. The present volume is a product
of such a project, this time focusing on U.S. relations with the two Koreas. The
Archive’s Korea Project brought together some of the world’s leading specialists,
and their papers have been revised for publication. It is easy to see from the six
essays included in this volume how important it is to have access to as much pub-
lic record—of all countries—as possible and also why a historical perspective is a
prerequisite to understanding contemporary issues.
The essays examine how the two Koreas, Japan, the United States, the People’s
Republic of China (PRC), and the Soviet Union (Russia) dealt with one another
in the last decades of the twentieth century and at the beginning of the twenty-
first. Of these six countries, North Korea is perhaps unique in that, as Sergey
Radchenko notes in his essay, its “policies, grievances, and demands . . . change
very little” from decade to decade. This in sharp contrast to the other five coun-
tries where constant change would seem to have been their main characteristic,
as clearly documented in the essays. What is equally important is that the world
itself was significantly transformed in the last three decades of the twentieth cen-
tury so that the old-fashioned game of geopolitics—the story of “the rise and fall
of the great powers”—became less and less relevant. Instead, regional communi-
ties, transnational movements, and global networks of goods, capital, labor, and
ideas came to provide the context in which nations sought to define, protect, and
promote their interests. All countries with strong interests in, or concerns about,
North Korea were aware of such changes, while the latter alone seemed to hold to
its old ways. While most of the contributions in this volume focus on the security
question, in particular the implications of North Korean’s nuclear armament for
regional stability, they also touch on many other issues that always complicated
the formulation of an appropriate response to that challenge.
In the first chapter, William Stueck traces the development of U.S. policy in
the Korean peninsula in the framework of a six-party relationship, including Ja-
pan, China, and the Soviet Union. It is a complex story, but the author’s research
vii
viii foreword
finds that while most administrations in Washington have been eager to reduce
U.S. commitments in Korea, this has proved very difficult because of North Korea’s
unwillingness to cooperate. Although examined in the framework of regional se-
curity affairs, Stueck also mentions that from around 1989 the United States began
to emphasize “the promotion of human rights and democratic values” among its
objectives in the Pacific. This is not surprising in view of what appeared to be global
democratization at that time, including the Chinese demonstrations at Tiananmen
Square; but we can put it in an even larger framework, that of the growing impor-
tance of transnational, as against international, issues in the world at the end of the
twentieth century, issues such as human rights, refugees, and global warming.
In that context, Seung-Young Kim’s chapter on human rights makes a superb
addition to the literature, showing that the promotion of democracy became a
fundamental aspect of U.S. relations with South Korea during the 1970s and be-
yond. Particularly revealing is Kim’s discussion of the protest movement in South
Korea against President Chun Doo-hwan that persisted throughout the 1980s, in
which U.S. officials kept in close touch not only with the Korean military as well
as opposition leaders but also with Chinese leaders. There were clearly global po-
litical developments in which all these countries became enveloped.
While the third essay in this book, Yasuyo Sakata’s study of the U.S.-Japan-
South Korea security cooperation, focuses on geopolitical issues, it also touches on
such topics as international aid to North Korea during its periods of food shortage
and the alleged abduction of Japanese by North Korean agents, a human rights
violation. Perhaps “human security,” the term that the United Nations Develop-
ment Program (UNDP) began to use in the 1970s, might best describe the trilateral
relationship. The next chapter, by Michael Chinworth, Narushige Michishita, and
Taeyoung Yoon, brings the story of the sexangular relationship to the present and
offers measured optimism about the possibility of renewed cooperation among
South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Even so, the authors stress that “com-
munication . . . remains a problem” among Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington.
The final two chapters expand the focus to examine Chinese and Russian di-
plomacy on the peninsula. Gregg Brazinsky examines China’s approach to North
Korea, which, the author shows, became inseparable from the PRC’s overall rela-
tionship with the United States. The leadership in Beijing was determined to pur-
sue its policy of modernization and globalization, which any crisis in the Korean
peninsula would be sure to frustrate. In South Korea, too, China wanted to en-
courage political stability and “the country’s evolution toward democracy.” It may
seem strange that a dictatorial regime in Beijing should encourage democratic
government in South Korea, but it all fits into the theme of economic connections
with the outside world. Here again, one sees the intrusion of larger forces on more
traditional geopolitical strategies.
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foreword ix
Given PRC’s growing involvement with South Korea, Pyongyang’s leaders not
surprisingly turned to Moscow for assistance, a story that is presented in Radchen-
ko’s chapter. He notes how isolated politically and intellectually North Korean lead-
ers appeared to be when they visited the Soviet Union during the 1960s and the
1970s. They seemed to follow where their dogmatic ideology took them, and it was
up to Soviet and Eastern European officials to disabuse them of some of their exces-
sive ideas. They did succeed to some extent, but, as the essay suggests, the two coun-
tries’ paths diverged further in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Communication is a critical component of diplomatic efforts to address the
security dilemmas on the Korean peninsula. If security were susceptible to “real-
istic” solutions, lack of communication would not matter. But in today’s intercon-
nected world, mutual understanding is more than ever crucial, and one cannot
enhance understanding by merely focusing on national security. We have to think
in terms of the hundreds of thousands of Koreans, Japanese, Americans, Chinese,
Russians, and many others who come into daily contact with one another all over
the globe. It is ultimately they who must build the world of tomorrow.
Acknowledgments
xi
Introduction
Robert A. Wampler
The year 2010 marked the sixtieth anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities on the
Korean peninsula. Pyongyang’s attack on South Korea led to three years of con-
flict that would return U.S. forces to combat in Asia just five years after the end of
World War II and, by the end of 1950, find not just American and Korean forces
engaged but also the military of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While the
armistice signed in 1953 concluded the UN-sanctioned “police action,” this did
not put an end to tensions rooted in the continued division of the peninsula, an
unstable situation that has repeatedly threatened regional and world security and
stability. Events during the Clinton, Bush II, and Obama administrations have
underscored the fashion in which the security situation on the peninsula can
swing from the depths of intense mutual suspicion and distrust to renewed hopes
for a peaceful resolution of the Korean security dilemma and back again to the
familiar denunciations of the United States and its allies issued from Pyongyang.
The efforts of the Clinton administration to bring a halt to Pyongyang’s nuclear
weapons program, which culminated in the 1994 Agreed Framework, seemed to
bring the hope of a wider rapprochement and mark a move toward the long-
delayed peace treaty. What followed, however, was the increase in tensions that
followed Pyongyang’s admission in late 2002 that it had continued to pursue a
nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1994 agreement. The subsequent
twists and turns of the ongoing efforts to engage in meaningful negotiations about
the nuclear issue and defuse the crisis, which was underscored by North Korea’s
successful test of a nuclear device in 2006, as well as continued provocations, such
as the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March 2010, amply demonstrate
the frustrations and sense of déjà vu surrounding talks with Pyongyang as well as
the uncertainties marking all efforts to address the North Korean security threat.
Complicating efforts to deal with North Korea were the reemergence of ten-
sions between the United States and its South Korean ally over how to respond
1
2 trilateralism and beyond
to the North Korean nuclear threat as well as the proper mode for overall politi-
cal engagement with Pyongyang. President George W. Bush’s inclusion of North
Korea in the “axis of evil,” anti-American rhetoric by candidates in South Korean
presidential elections, unfortunate incidents involving U.S. troops, opposition to
the U.S.-led war in Iraq, and public protests that fed on long-standing popular
suspicions about the role the United States has played in South Korean domes-
tic politics, particularly during the period of repressive military government, all
underscored a generational push for a more independent-minded South Korea
charting its own course.1 As Victor Cha and David Kang have stressed, “Democ-
racy, development, and generational change have given rise to a younger, affluent,
and educated generation in their 20s and 30s who see the United States not as a
savior in the Korea war, but as an overbearing ally with a burdensome military
footprint in the center of the capital city and a past supporter of military-author-
itarian regimes in Korea.”2
The studies collected here explore the historical foundations of Korean secu-
rity relationships, the challenges these relationships have faced and will face in the
future. The studies center on the two crucial and entwined trilateral security re-
lationships that have been mutually engaged on the peninsula: U.S.-Japan-South
Korea and North Korea-China-Russia. The efforts, centering on these entwined
triangular relationships, to deal with the recurring political and military crises
that have marked the unstable security situation on the Korean peninsula are a
central and critical motif of the cold war and the post–cold war eras. These efforts
have moved on parallel tracks, involving the long-standing South Korean security
alliances with Washington and Tokyo as Seoul followed its difficult path from
authoritarian military rule to democracy and the continued struggle—not lim-
ited to the United States and its allies but also plaguing Moscow and Beijing—to
penetrate the veils of secrecy, apparent paranoia, and unpredictable behavior that
have characterized the Stalinist-style repressive North Korean communist regime
of Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il.
These studies provide a foundation for assessing the record of trilateral security
cooperation among the United States and its two allies in order to consider what
is relevant, and what may not be relevant, as they and China and Russia face a
possible future in which the North Korean security threat may not be the major
challenge. If this future comes to pass, will there be the need to revisit the founda-
tions and objectives of South Korea’s bilateral and trilateral security relationships
as well as its overall diplomacy, akin to what happened in the U.S.-Japan security
relationship after the end of the cold war? There is a tendency for people, when
thinking about the future, to assume that past historical trend lines will continue
into the future; this produces a serious policy challenge in terms of the ensuing
cognitive difficulty in conceiving of alternative futures in which these trend lines
are broken and new ones generated, posing new challenges that the old way of
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