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Full View Integrated
Technical Analysis
A Systematic Approach
to Active Stock Market
Investing
Full View Integrated
Technical Analysis
A Systematic Approach
to Active Stock Market
Investing

Xin Xie

John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

2 Clementi Loop, #02–01, Singapore 129809
All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted

in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning,
or otherwise, except as expressly permitted by law, without either the prior written
permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate
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addressed to the Publisher, John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd., 2 Clementi Loop, #02–01,
Singapore 129809, tel: 65–6463–2400, fax: 65–6463–4605, e-mail: [email protected].

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard

to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not
engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance
is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

Neither the authors nor the publisher are liable for any actions prompted or caused by
the information presented in this book. Any views expressed herein are those of the authors
and do not represent the views of the organizations they work for.

Other Wiley Editorial Offices

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United Kingdom
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

ISBN 978-0-470-82579-2

Typeset in 10.5/13 pt Palatino Roman by MPS Limited, a Macmillan company

Printed in Singapore by Toppan Security Printing Pte Ltd
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 Contents

Preface ix

1 The Need for a Full View Integrated Approach 1

1.1 The Motivation 1
1.1.1 The Need for a New Paradigm 1
1.1.2 The Answers from FVITA 4
1.2 The Necessity of FVITA 6
1.3 Random Walk? 9

2 Two Basic Elements of Market Dynamics 11

2.1 Oscillators—An Overview 11
2.2 The Oscillator of Choice—Stochastics 19
2.3 Trend Indicator—Moving Average 21
2.4 Trend Indicator—Moving Average Convergence/Divergence 24
2.5 Adaptive Trend Indicators 29
2.5.1 Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average 30
2.5.2 Chande’s Variable Index Dynamic Average 31
2.5.3 Mart’s Master Trading Formula 31
2.6 Adaptive Oscillators 33
2.7 Other Tools of Technical Analysis 33

3 Multi-Screen Systems 35
3.1 The Need for Multi-Screen Approaches 35
3.2 Triple Screens 37
3.3 Extended Interval Charts in FVITA—Daily and Up 39
3.4 Intra-Day Interval Charts in FVITA 45

4 Bounded, Interval-Specific Bull and Bear Markets 49

4.1 Interval-Specific Bull and Bear Market I—Concept 49
4.2 Interval-Specific Bull and Bear Market II—Criteria 52
4.3 Interval-Specific Bull and Bear Market III—Limits of
Countermovements 57
4.4 Triple Screen System Under Full View 66

5 Market Turning Points and Duration of Pauses 69

5.1 Support and Resistance 69
5.2 Bollinger Bands 74
5.3 Waves 78
5.4 Turning Points after Eight and R9 Observations 85
5.5 Thrust 86
5.6 Type I, II, and III Pauses 91

v
vi Contents

6 Trend Reversals vs. Temporary Countertrends 101

6.1 Trend Reversals 101
6.2 Without the Two-Day Chart 108
6.3 Running Space after Trend Reversal 109
6.4 Temporary Countertrends 111
6.5 Straight Pauses 122
6.6 Exception 1: Composite Bottoming-Up
and Composite Topping-Off 128
6.7 Exception 2: Approaching the Turning Point 130
6.8 Relationship between Low- and
High-Order Signals 132
6.9 Trading Strategies on Trend Signals 134

7 Pauses Under Different Market Conditions 141

7.1 Pausing-Down from a Historical New High 142
7.2 Pauses Against Temporary Trends 145
7.3 Trading Strategies for Pauses 151

8 Case Studies 157

8.1 Case 1: The 2007 Financial Market Crisis—DJIA 158
8.2 Case 2: The 2000 High-Tech Bubble and
its Aftermath—DJIA 162
8.2.1 The Formation of the High-Tech Bubble—DJIA 163
8.2.2 The Bursting of the High-Tech Bubble—DJIA 167
8.3 Case 3: The 1990 Bubble and Fall—Topix 172
8.3.1 The Formation of the 1990 Bubble—Topix 172
8.3.2 The Bursting of the Bubble in 1990, I—Topix 177
8.3.3 The Bursting of the Bubble in 1990, II—Topix 183
8.4 Case 4: The 2003 Rebound and 2007 Crash 187
8.4.1 The Rebound in 2003—Topix 187
8.4.2 The Fall after the Crash in 2007—Topix 192
8.5 Case 5: The 2007 Crash—Shanghai Composite Index 195
8.5.1 Market at the Turning Point—Shanghai
Composite Index 2007 195
8.5.2 The Crash of 2007—Shanghai Composite Index 201

9 Random Walk, Efficient Market vs. Market Activism 207

9.1 Efficient Market Hypothesis—The Roots 208
9.2 Efficient Market Hypothesis—The Evidence 212
9.3 EMH, Market Activism and the $100 Bill Story 216
9.4 Flawed Empirical Observations
Against Market Activism 217
9.5 A Fund to Show Effective Market Activision 224
9.6 A Theoretical Argument for Technical Analysis 228
Contents vii

10 Integrating Macro, Fundamental, Quantitative

and Technical Analysis 237
10.1 The Fragmented State of Market Analysis 237
10.2 Integrating Different Technical Analyses Under FVITA 239
10.3 Macroeconomic Analysis and FVITA 240
10.3.1 Integrated Approach to News Processing 241
10.3.2 Integrated Analysis of Bubbles and Panics 244
10.4 Firm Fundamentals and FVITA 248
10.5 Options and FVITA 249

11 Other Issues 253

11.1 Statistical Analysis 253
11.2 Technical Analysis as Public Knowledge 255

12 Concluding Remarks 259

Glossary 261

References 265

Index 267
 Preface

A s an economist by training, I was instinctively very skeptical of

technical analysis. However, the years working at UBS and Bank
of America doing macroeconomic analysis of economies across Asia
after the 1997 Asian financial market crisis, and through the bursting
of the high-tech bubble in 2000, taught me a first-hand lesson: mac­
roeconomic analysis has its limitations, especially when used as the
base for investment strategies. Macroeconomic forecasting is a mix­
ture of art and science. To get the forecast right, the forecaster has to
be sensitive and insightful about the unique nature of each circum­
stance. Making investment decisions solely based on macroeconomic
analysis involves a high degree of risk both because of the uncer­
tainty in macroeconomic forecasting itself and the unpredictable link
between economic fundamentals and market performance. The same
things can be said about firm fundamental analysis. Stylized funda­
mental analyses cannot fully account for the observed complexity of
real macroeconomic and firm activities, let alone offer robust forecasts
of financial market dynamics.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, employs
teams of economists around the world and uses large structural equa­
tion models to analyze the world economy, but its forecasts often look
somewhat distant from reality in the eyes of financial market econo­
mists who make forecasts with much simpler models but follow the
economies closely. This is despite the impressive analyses of various
issues faced by the world economy accompanying the forecasts in
the annual IMF World Economic Outlook. The discrepancy between the
impressive analyses of the issues and a weak forecasting performance
suggests that the problem is not with the IMF or any other particular
organization doing the forecasts, but rather lies with the inadequacy
of the stylized fundamental theories in capturing the complexity and
ever changing economic conditions with fixed parametric systems
specified in the structural forecasting equations.
Furthermore, even when the forecast is done accurately, with a
few notable exceptions, it does not translate easily to financial mar­
ket forecasts or the right investment decisions. Even in retrospect, the
observed macroeconomic and firm fundamentals do not account for

ix
x Preface

all the observed market dynamics. Instead, the market is mostly driven
by issues of concern to market participants at the time, which may or
may not be directly related to what is happening in the economy. Right
timing is often more important than the right forecast; and perceived
issues are often more important than the actual issues, in the short run
at least. While the real issues will eventually transpire in the long run,
it may no longer matter by the time this happens for two reasons:

1. The investor may not have the risk-bearing capacity to wait for
the real issue to transpire, not knowing when it will happen.
2. Many new market concerns may emerge to mask the impact of
the issue when it occurs.

The significant uncertainty associated with using fundamental

analysis as the tool for investment decision-making led me to study
technical analysis. Despite initial skepticism, the value of technical
analysis quickly became apparent upon closer examination. First, most
indicators apparently have some explanatory power on market dynam­
ics. Next, and more importantly, it succeeds where fundamental analy­
sis fails. It helps to understand short-term market movements whereas
fundamental analysis is most ineffective in explaining short-run market
dynamics; it can be used to forecast future market dynamics whereas
fundamental variables often lag behind financial markets. While the
deviation of market prices from fundamentals may be used to forecast
the eventual reverting back of market prices towards realignment with
the fundamentals, the expected realignment has not yielded exploit­
able opportunities for consistently higher investment returns as a
result of the difficulty in timing the price reversal based on fundamen­
tal analysis. Lastly, while individual indicators have fairly high rates
of failure, different indicators capture different aspects of the market
dynamics. Thus, the information offered by different technical indica­
tors, if effectively put together, offers promising prospects for a good
understanding of market movements.
On the other hand, it is equally apparent to anyone who is serious
about using technical analysis for investment decision making that
despite significant amounts of accumulated knowledge, the current
approaches are far from being satisfactory. First, it fails too often. The
explanatory power of any given individual indicator is too low and
resulting uncertainty is too high. Skills accumulated over many years
of experience may help to reduce the uncertainty and increase the suc­
cess rate. But this suggests that a crucial part of the knowledge remains
Preface xi

tacit and cannot be easily passed on to other people. Furthermore,

when indicators fail to offer the right signal, there is no good explana­
tion; therefore, one is condemned to repeat the mistake the next time
around.
Second, a rich set of indicators and an abundance of different
approaches to technical analysis offer different perspetives on market
dynamics, thus can potentially be used together to provide signifi­
cantly better understanding about market movements. However, in
reality, not much effort has been directed at exploring the joint explan­
atory power and the collective wisdom of this diverse set of accumu­
lated knowledge.
Third, given the lack of an integrated approach between differ­
ent technical analyses, it is not surprising that the complementarities
between technical analysis and fundamental research are left com­
pletely unexploited. In fact, most times, one is likely to get a derisive
response from both technical analysts and fundamental analysts on
mentioning any attempt to put fundamental and technical analyses
together. Technical analysts in particular often make a conscious effort
to avoid being influenced by fundamental analysis or any other mar­
ket related information. This is completely unjustified given that the
path taken in the past is a reflection of what is expected of the future
and that there is a difference between the realized and the expected
future.
Given the unexploited potential and the unsatisfactory state of the
existing approaches to technical analysis, the way forward is clear. In
order to reduce the rate of failures, we need to understand the rea­
sons for the forecasting errors generated by the indicators and use the
indicators conditionally in the absence of the factors causing the fail­
ures, rather than unconditionally. In addition, we need to explore the joint
power of different indicators as well as harvest the combined wisdom
of technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
As it turns out, the two roads lead to one destination—a broad
understanding of market dynamics rather than a narrow focus on
isolated individual patterns. For a broad understanding of market
dynamics, the following three observations are fundamental:

1. The market is driven by many different trends each with

bounded duration.
2. The operation of the trends is not independent of each other.
3. Different trends are best captured by different interval charts
or data series of different interval sizes.
xii Preface

Because of the influence from higher order time intervals, the analysis
of the patterns will be associated with a high degree of uncertainty if
the focus is on a single or a limited few interval charts. The uncertainty
will be further increased if the analysis is done by using a single indi­
cator. To obtain robust results, a full-view approach must be adopted
to take all trends of different durations into consideration; and an inte­
grated approach must be adopted to incorporate information about
different aspects of the market dynamics from multiple indicators.
This book presents such a system, named Full View Integrated
Technical Analysis (FVITA). The broad understanding of the mar­
ket dynamics obtained through FVITA naturally lends itself to being
integrated with fundamental analysis, making it possible to further
enhance the explanatory power of the analytical system and deepen
the understanding about broad market dynamics.
The presentation of FVITA in the book will largely follow the thought
process described above. Chapter 1 discusses broad deficiencies of the
current approaches to technical analysis and the necessity for a new
approach. Chapter 2 examines various indicators being used currently
to capture two important aspects of market dynamics—trends and
perturbation around the trends. The deficiency of each indicator in the
context of the current technical analysis is discussed. Based on the dis­
cussion, the best ones from each group of the indicators are selected
for FVITA.
Chapter 3 sets up the physical structure of FVITA by constructing
a set of interval charts that offers complete coverage of the market
dynamics. Chapter 4 introduces the concept of bounded trends associ­
ated with the chosen set of intervals. Chapter 5 completes the building
blocks of FVITA with a catalogue of various indicators associated with
different market pausing points.
Chapter 6 presents the main body of analytical contents of FVITA—
the signals for confirming a trend reversal and temporary countertrend
movements respectively. Chapter 7 continues the analytical discussion
focusing on different market turning points and durations of tempo­
rary pauses. Chapter 8 is a collection of five case studies that employ
the FVITA system to examine recent episodes of bubbles and crashes
in three major markets.
In introducing the indicators and analytical rules in the first seven
chapters, I have opted to use actual market data in the illustrative
charts for the sake of presenting an actual market environment where
the indicators are observed. However, in those cases, the detailed
market conditions such as the date, the particular market, and the full
Preface xiii

view market environment will not be discussed; the focus is on the

main technical properties of the indicator of concern. Furthermore,
the charts used are not related to each other unless clearly indicated.
On the other hand, in the case studies presented in chapter 8, the
broad market conditions and the specific market being considered
become important for the analysis. For effective FVITA analysis, it is
very helpful to have the broad market conditions in mind. For this
reason, two most recent episodes of bubbles and crashes are selected
for the case studies so that the fresh memories of broad market con­
ditions and the macroeconomic context make it easier to follow the
discussion.
Chapters 9 to 11 address broader issues with regard to technical ana­
lysis. The theoretical foundation of technical analysis is first examined,
followed with a discussion of the general direction for the integration
of technical analysis with macro and firm fundamental analysis, as well
as quantitative finance.
At the very least, by pointing out why and where the existing tech­
nical analysis fails, the analytical framework presented here should
help readers avoid costly mistakes. With the concept of bounded bull
and bear market marking the effective ranges of market forces of dif­
ferent duration, it will help to increase the robustness of the existing
indicators by providing the necessary conditions for their correct
usage. Most significantly, the FVITA framework offers an effective way
to exploit the collective wisdom of the existing technical analysis and
provides a systematic, consistent, and open framework to understand
the broad market dynamics. It is the author’s hope that the analytical
structure of the full view integrated approach to technical analysis and
the empirically robust main body of results offered here will lay the
ground for a more productive conceptual framework for conducting
technical analyses and facilitate the integration of technical and funda­
mental analyses in financial market research.
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