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 Statistical
AND Econometric
Methods FOR
Transportation
Data Analysis
Simon P. Washington
Matthew G. Karlaftis
Fred L. Mannering

CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC

A CRC Press Company
Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Cover Images: Left, “7th and Marquette during Rush Hour,” photo copyright 2002 Chris Gregerson,
www.phototour.minneapolis.mn.us. Center, “Route 66,” and right, “Central Albuquerque,” copyright
Marble Street Studio, Inc., Albuquerque, NM.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Washington, Simon P.
Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis /
Simon P. Washington, Matthew G. Karlaftis, Fred L. Mannering.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-58488-030-9 (alk. paper)
1. Transportation--Statistical methods. 2.
Transportation--Econometric models. I. Karlaftis, Matthew G. II.
Mannering, Fred L. III. Title.

HE191.5.W37 2003
388'.01'5195--dc21 2003046163

This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material
is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable
efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot
assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use.

Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic
or mechanical, including photocopying, microÞlming, and recording, or by any information storage or
retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher.

The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for
creating new works, or for resale. SpeciÞc permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC
for such copying.

Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2000 N.W. Corporate Blvd., Boca Raton, Florida 33431.

Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identiÞcation and explanation, without intent to infringe.

Visit the CRC Press Web site at www.crcpress.com

© 2003 by Chapman & Hall/CRC

No claim to original U.S. Government works

International Standard Book Number 1-58488-030-9
Library of Congress Card Number 2003046163
Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
Printed on acid-free paper

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Dedication

To Tracy, Samantha, and Devon

— S.P.W.

To Amy, George, and John

— M.G.K.

To Jill, Willa, and Freyda

— F.L.M.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Preface

Transportation plays an essential role in developed and developing societies.

Transportation is responsible for personal mobility; provides access to ser-
vices, jobs, and leisure activities; and is integral to the delivery of consumer
goods. Regional, state, national, and world economies depend on the efficient
and safe functioning of transportation facilities and infrastructure.
Because of the sweeping influence transportation has on economic and
social aspects of modern society, transportation issues pose challenges to
professionals across a wide range of disciplines, including transportation
engineering, urban and regional planning, economics, logistics, systems and
safety engineering, social science, law enforcement and security, and con-
sumer theory. Where to place and expand transportation infrastructure, how
to operate and maintain infrastructure safely and efficiently, and how to
spend valuable resources to improve mobility, access to goods, services, and
health care are among the decisions made routinely by transportation-related
professionals.
Many transportation-related problems and challenges involve stochastic
processes, which are influenced by observed and unobserved factors in
unknown ways. The stochastic nature of transportation problems is largely
a result of the role that people play in transportation. Transportation system
users routinely face decisions in transportation contexts, such as which trans-
portation mode to use, which vehicle to purchase, whether or not to partic-
ipate in a vanpool or to telecommute, where to relocate a residence or
business, whether to support a proposed light-rail project, and whether or
not to utilize traveler information before or during a trip. These decisions
involve various degrees of uncertainty. Transportation system managers and
governmental agencies face similar stochastic problems in determining how
to measure and compare system performance, where to invest in safety
improvements, how to operate transportation systems efficiently, and how
to estimate transportation demand.
The complexity, diversity, and stochastic nature of transportation problems
requires that transportation analysts have an extensive set of analytical tools
in their toolbox. Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data
Analysis describes and illustrates some of these tools commonly used for
transportation data analysis.
Every book must strike an appropriate balance between depth and
breadth of theory and applications, given the intended audience. Statistical
and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis targets two general
audiences. First, it serves as a textbook for advanced undergraduate, mas-
ter’s, and Ph.D. students in transportation-related disciplines, including

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

engineering, economics, urban and regional planning, and sociology. There
is sufficient material to cover two 3-unit semester courses in analytical
methods. Alternatively, a one semester course could consist of a subset of
topics covered in this book. The publisher’s Web site, www.crcpress.com,
contains the data sets used to develop this book so that applied modeling
problems will reinforce the modeling techniques discussed throughout the
text. Second, the book serves as a technical reference for researchers and
practitioners wishing to examine and understand a broad range of analytical
tools required to solve transportation problems. It provides a wide breadth
of transportation examples and case studies, covering applications in vari-
ous aspects of transportation planning, engineering, safety, and economics.
Sufficient analytical rigor is provided in each chapter so that fundamental
concepts and principles are clear, and numerous references are provided
for those seeking additional technical details and applications.
The first section of the book provides statistical fundamentals (Chapters 1
and 2). This section is useful for refreshing readers regarding the fundamen-
tals and for sufficiently preparing them for the sections that follow.
The second section focuses on continuous dependent variable models. The
chapter on linear regression (Chapter 3) devotes a few extra pages to intro-
ducing common modeling practice — examining residuals, creating indica-
tor variables, and building statistical models — and thus serves as a logical
starting chapter for readers new to statistical modeling. Chapter 4 discusses
the impacts of failing to meet linear regression assumptions and presents
corresponding solutions. Chapter 5 deals with simultaneous equation mod-
els and presents modeling methods appropriate when studying two or more
interrelated dependent variables. Chapter 6 presents methods for analyzing
panel data — data obtained from repeated observations on sampling units
over time, such as household surveys conducted several times on a sample
of households. When data are collected continuously over time, such as
hourly, daily, weekly, or yearly, time-series methods and models are often
applied (Chapter 7). Latent variable models, presented in Chapter 8, are used
when the dependent variable is not directly observable and is approximated
with one or more surrogate variables. The final chapter in this section pre-
sents duration models, which are used to model time-until-event data such
as survival, hazard, and decay processes.
The third section presents count and discrete dependent variable models.
Count models (Chapter 10) arise when the data of interest are non-negative
integers. Examples of such data include vehicles in a queue and the number
of vehicular crashes per unit time. Discrete outcome models, which are
extremely useful in many transportation applications, are described in Chap-
ter 11. A unique feature of the book is that discrete outcome models are first
derived statistically and then related to economic theories of consumer
choice. Discrete/continuous models, presented in Chapter 12, demonstrate
that interrelated discrete and continuous data need to be modeled as a system
rather than individually, such as the choice of which vehicle to drive and
how far it will be driven.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 The appendices are complementary to the text of the book. Appendix A
presents the fundamental concepts in statistics that support the analytical
methods discussed. Appendix B is an alphabetical glossary of statistical
terms that are commonly used, serving as a quick and easy reference. Appen-
dix C provides tables of probability distributions used in the book. Finally,
Appendix D describes typical uses of data transformations common to many
statistical methods.
Although the book covers a wide variety of analytical tools for improving
the quality of research, it does not attempt to teach all elements of the
research process. Specifically, the development and selection of useful
research hypotheses, alternative experimental design methodologies, the vir-
tues and drawbacks of experimental vs. observational studies, and some
technical issues involved with the collection of data such as sample size
calculations are not discussed. These issues are crucial elements in the con-
duct of research, and can have a drastic impact on the overall results and
quality of the research endeavor. It is considered a prerequisite that readers
of this book be educated and informed on these critical research elements
so that they appropriately apply the analytical tools presented here.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Contents

Part I Fundamentals

1 Statistical Inference I: Descriptive Statistics

1.1 Measures of Relative Standing
1.2 Measures of Central Tendency
1.3 Measures of Variability
1.4 Skewness and Kurtosis
1.5 Measures of Association
1.6 Properties of Estimators
1.6.1 Unbiasedness
1.6.2 Efficiency
1.6.3 Consistency
1.6.4 Sufficiency
1.7 Methods of Displaying Data
1.7.1 Histograms
1.7.2 Ogives
1.7.3 Box Plots
1.7.4 Scatter Diagrams
1.7.5 Bar and Line Charts

2 Statistical Inference II: Interval Estimation, Hypothesis

Testing, and Population Comparisons
2.1 Confidence Intervals
2.1.1 Confidence Interval for m with Known s2
2.1.2 Confidence Interval for the Mean
with Unknown Variance
2.1.3 Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion
2.1.4 Confidence Interval for the Population Variance
2.2 Hypothesis Testing
2.2.1 Mechanics of Hypothesis Testing
2.2.2 Formulating One- and Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests
2.2.3 The p-Value of a Hypothesis Test
2.3 Inferences Regarding a Single Population
2.3.1 Testing the Population Mean with Unknown Variance
2.3.2 Testing the Population Variance
2.3.3 Testing for a Population Proportion
2.4 Comparing Two Populations
2.4.1 Testing Differences between Two Means:
Independent Samples

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 2.4.2 Testing Differences between Two Means:
Paired Observations
2.4.3 Testing Differences between Two
Population Proportions
2.4.4 Testing the Equality of Two Population Variances
2.5 Nonparametric Methods
2.5.1 The Sign Test
2.5.2 The Median Test
2.5.3 The Mann–Whitney U Test
2.5.4 The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test for Matched Pairs
2.5.5 The Kruskal–Wallis Test
2.5.6 The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test

Part II Continuous Dependent Variable Models

3 Linear Regression
3.1 Assumptions of the Linear Regression Model
3.1.1 Continuous Dependent Variable Y
3.1.2 Linear-in-Parameters Relationship between Y and X
3.1.3 Observations Independently and Randomly Sampled
3.1.4 Uncertain Relationship between Variables
3.1.5 Disturbance Term Independent of X and Expected
Value Zero
3.1.6 Disturbance Terms Not Autocorrelated
3.1.7 Regressors and Disturbances Uncorrelated
3.1.8 Disturbances Approximately Normally Distributed
3.1.9 Summary
3.2 Regression Fundamentals
3.2.1 Least Squares Estimation
3.2.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation
3.2.3 Properties of OLS and MLE Estimators
3.2.4 Inference in Regression Analysis
3.3 Manipulating Variables in Regression
3.3.1 Standardized Regression Models
3.3.2 Transformations
3.3.3 Indicator Variables
3.3.3.1 Estimate a Single Beta Parameter
3.3.3.2 Estimate Beta Parameter for Ranges
of the Variable
3.3.3.3 Estimate a Single Beta Parameter for
m – 1 of the m Levels of the Variable
3.3.4 Interactions in Regression Models
3.4 Checking Regression Assumptions
3.4.1 Linearity

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 3.4.2 Homoscedastic Disturbances
3.4.3 Uncorrelated Disturbances
3.4.4 Exogenous Independent Variables
3.4.5 Normally Distributed Disturbances
3.5 Regression Outliers
3.5.1 The Hat Matrix for Identifying Outlying Observations
3.5.2 Standard Measures for Quantifying Outlier Influence
3.5.3 Removing Influential Data Points from the Regression
3.6 Regression Model Goodness-of-Fit Measures
3.7 Multicollinearity in the Regression
3.8 Regression Model-Building Strategies
3.8.1 Stepwise Regression
3.8.2 Best Subsets Regression
3.8.3 Iteratively Specified Tree-Based Regression
3.9 Logistic Regression
3.10 Lags and Lag Structure
3.11 Investigating Causality in the Regression
3.12 Limited Dependent Variable Models
3.13 Box–Cox Regression
3.14 Estimating Elasticities

4 Violations of Regression Assumptions

4.1 Zero Mean of the Disturbances Assumption
4.2 Normality of the Disturbances Assumption
4.3 Uncorrelatedness of Regressors
and Disturbances Assumption
4.4 Homoscedasticity of the Disturbances Assumption
4.4.1 Detecting Heteroscedasticity
4.4.2 Correcting for Heteroscedasticity
4.5 No Serial Correlation in the Disturbances Assumption
4.5.1 Detecting Serial Correlation
4.5.2 Correcting for Serial Correlation
4.6 Model Specification Errors

5 Simultaneous Equation Models

5.1 Overview of the Simultaneous Equations Problem
5.2 Reduced Form and the Identification Problem
5.3 Simultaneous Equation Estimation
5.3.1 Single-Equation Methods
5.3.2 System Equation Methods
5.4 Seemingly Unrelated Equations
5.5 Applications of Simultaneous Equations
to Transportation Data
Appendix 5A: A Note on Generalized Least Squares Estimation

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

6 Panel Data Analysis
6.1 Issues in Panel Data Analysis
6.2 One-Way Error Component Models
6.2.1 Heteroscedasticity and Serial Correlation
6.3 Two-Way Error Component Models
6.4 Variable Coefficient Models
6.5 Additional Topics and Extensions

7 Time-Series Analysis
7.1 Characteristics of Time Series
7.1.1 Long-Term Movements
7.1.2 Seasonal Movements
7.1.3 Cyclic Movements
7.1.4 Irregular or Random Movements
7.2 Smoothing Methodologies
7.2.1 Simple Moving Averages
7.2.2 Exponential Smoothing
7.3 The ARIMA Family of Models
7.3.1 The ARIMA Models
7.3.2 Estimating ARIMA Models
7.4 Nonlinear Time-Series Models
7.4.1 Conditional Mean Models
7.4.2 Conditional Variance Models
7.4.3 Mixed Models
7.4.4 Regime Models
7.5 Multivariate Time-Series Models
7.6 Measures of Forecasting Accuracy

8 Latent Variable Models

8.1 Principal Components Analysis
8.2 Factor Analysis
8.3 Structural Equation Modeling
8.3.1 Basic Concepts in Structural Equation Modeling
8.3.2 The Structural Equation Model
8.3.3 Non-Ideal Conditions in the Structural
Equation Model
8.3.4 Model Goodness-of-Fit Measures
8.3.5 Guidelines for Structural Equation Modeling

9 Duration Models
9.1 Hazard-Based Duration Models
9.2 Characteristics of Duration Data
9.3 Nonparametric Models
9.4 Semiparametric Models

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 9.5 Fully Parametric Models
9.6 Comparisons of Nonparametric, Semiparametric,
and Fully Parametric Models
9.7 Heterogeneity
9.8 State Dependence
9.9 Time-Varying Covariates
9.10 Discrete-Time Hazard Models
9.11 Competing Risk Models

Part III Count and Discrete Dependent Variable Models

10 Count Data Models

10.1 Poisson Regression Model
10.2 Poisson Regression Model Goodness-of-Fit Measures
10.3 Truncated Poisson Regression Model
10.4 Negative Binomial Regression Model
10.5 Zero-Inflated Poisson and Negative Binomial
Regression Models
10.6 Panel Data and Count Models

11 Discrete Outcome Models

11.1 Models of Discrete Data
11.2 Binary and Multinomial Probit Models
11.3 Multinomial Logit Model
11.4 Discrete Data and Utility Theory
11.5 Properties and Estimation of Multinomial Logit Models
11.5.1 Statistical Evaluation
11.5.2 Interpretation of Findings
11.5.3 Specification Errors
11.5.4 Data Sampling
11.5.5 Forecasting and Aggregation Bias
11.5.6 Transferability
11.6 Nested Logit Model (Generalized Extreme Value Model)
11.7 Special Properties of Logit Models
11.8 Mixed MNL Models
11.9 Models of Ordered Discrete Data

12 Discrete/Continuous Models
12.1 Overview of the Discrete/Continuous Modeling Problem
12.2 Econometric Corrections: Instrumental Variables
and Expected Value Method
12.3 Econometric Corrections: Selectivity-Bias Correction Term
12.4 Discrete/Continuous Model Structures

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Appendix A: Statistical Fundamentals

Appendix B: Glossary of Terms

Appendix C: Statistical Tables

Appendix D: Variable Transformations

References

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 Part I

Fundamentals

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

1
Statistical Inference I: Descriptive Statistics

This chapter examines methods and techniques for summarizing and inter-
preting data. The discussion begins by examining numerical descriptive
measures. These measures, commonly known as point estimators, enable
inferences about a population by estimating the value of an unknown pop-
ulation parameter using a single value (or point). This chapter also overviews
graphical representations of data. Relative to graphical methods, numerical
methods provide precise and objectively determined values that can easily
be manipulated, interpreted, and compared. They permit a more careful
analysis of the data than more general impressions conveyed by graphical
summaries. This is important when the data represent a sample from which
inferences must be made concerning the entire population.
Although this chapter concentrates on the most basic and fundamental
issues of statistical analyses, there are countless thorough introductory sta-
tistical textbooks that can provide the interested reader with greater detail.
For example, Aczel (1993) and Keller and Warrack (1997) provide detailed
descriptions and examples of descriptive statistics and graphical techniques.
Tukey (1977) is the classical reference on exploratory data analysis and
graphical techniques. For readers interested in the properties of estimators
(Section 1.7), the books by Gujarati (1992) and Baltagi (1998) are excellent
and fairly mathematically rigorous.

1.1 Measures of Relative Standing

A set of numerical observations can be ordered from smallest to largest mag-
nitude. This ordering allows the boundaries of the data to be defined and
allows for comparisons of the relative position of specific observations. If an
observation is in the 90th percentile, for example, then 90% of the observations
have a lower magnitude. Consider the usefulness of percentile rank in terms
of a nationally administered test such as the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or
Graduate Record Exam (GRE). An individual’s score on the test is compared
with the scores of all people who took the test at the same time, and the relative

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

position within the group is defined in terms of a percentile. If, for example,
the 80th percentile of GRE scores is 660, this means that 80% of the sample of
individuals who took the test scored below 660 and 20% scored 660 or better.
A percentile is defined as that value below which lies P% of the numbers in
the remaining sample. For sufficiently large samples, the position of the Pth
percentile is given by (n + 1)P/100, where n is the sample size.
Quartiles are the percentage points that separate the data into quarters:
first quarter, below which lies one quarter of the data, making it the 25th
percentile; second quarter, or 50th percentile, below which lies half of the
data; third quarter, or 75th percentile point. The 25th percentile is often
referred to as the lower or first quartile, the 50th percentile as the median
or middle quartile, and the 75th percentile as the upper or third quartile.
Finally, the interquartile range, a measure of the spread of the data, is defined
as the difference between the first and third quartiles.

1.2 Measures of Central Tendency

Quartiles and percentiles are measures of the relative positions of points
within a given data set. The median constitutes a useful point because it
lies in the center of the data, with half of the data points lying above it
and half below. Thus, the median constitutes a measure of the centrality
of the observations.
Despite the existence of the median, by far the most popular and useful
measure of central tendency is the arithmetic mean, or, more succinctly, the
mean. The sample mean or expectation is a statistical term that describes the
central tendency, or average, of a sample of observations, and varies across
samples. The mean of a sample of measurements x1, x2, …, xn is defined as

§
n
xi
MEAN (X ) ! E?X A ! X ! i !1
, (1.1)
n

where n is the size of the sample.

When an entire population constitutes the set to be examined, the sample
mean X is replaced by Q, the population mean. Unlike the sample mean,
the population mean is constant. The formula for the population mean is

§
N
xi
i !1
Q! . (1.2)
N

where N is the number of observations in the entire population.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 The mode (or modes because it is possible to have more than one of them)
of a set of observations is the value that occurs most frequently, or the most
commonly occurring outcome, and strictly applies to discrete variables (nom-
inal and ordinal scale variables) as well as count data. Probabilistically, it is the
most likely outcome in the sample; it has occurred more than any other value.
It is useful to examine the advantages and disadvantages of each the three
measures of central tendency. The mean uses and summarizes all of the infor-
mation in the data, is a single numerical measure, and has some desirable
mathematical properties that make it useful in many statistical inference and
modeling applications. The median, in contrast, is the central-most (center)
point of ranked data. When computing the median, the exact locations of data
points on the number line are not considered; only their relative standing with
respect to the central observation is required. Herein lies the major advantage
of the median; it is resistant to extreme observations or outliers in the data.
The mean is, overall, the most frequently used measure of central tendency;
in cases, however, where the data contain numerous outlying observations the
median may serve as a more reliable measure of central tendency.
If the sample data are measured on the interval or ratio scale, then all three
measures of centrality (mean, median, and mode) make sense, provided that
the level of measurement precision does not preclude the determination of
a mode. If data are symmetric and if the distribution of the observations has
only one mode, then the mode, the median, and the mean are all approxi-
mately equal (the relative positions of the three measures in cases of asym-
metric distributions is discussed in Section 1.4). Finally, if the data are
qualitative (measured on the nominal or ordinal scales), using the mean or
median is senseless, and the mode must be used. For nominal data, the mode
is the category that contains the largest number of observations.

1.3 Measures of Variability

Variability is a statistical term used to describe and quantify the spread or
dispersion of data around the center, usually the mean. In most practical
situations, knowing the average or expected value of a sample is not
sufficient to obtain an adequate understanding of the data. Sample vari-
ability provides a measure of how dispersed the data are with respect to
the mean (or other measures of central tendency). Figure 1.1 illustrates two
distributions of data, one that is highly dispersed and another that is more
tightly packed around the mean. There are several useful measures of
variability, or dispersion. One measure previously discussed is the inter-
quartile range. Another measure is the range, which is equal to the differ-
ence between the largest and the smallest observations in the data. The
range and the interquartile range are measures of the dispersion of a set
of observations, with the interquartile range more resistant to outlying

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 Low Variability

High Variability

FIGURE 1.1
Examples of high and low variability data.

observations. The two most frequently used measures of dispersion are the
variance and its square root, the standard deviation.
The variance and the standard deviation are more useful than the range
because, like the mean, they use the information contained in all the obser-
vations. The variance of a set of observations, or sample variance, is the
average squared deviation of the individual observations from the mean and
varies across samples. The sample variance is commonly used as an estimate
of the population variance and is given by

§
n 2
xi  X
i !1
s 2
! . (1.3)
n1

When a collection of observations constitute an entire population, the

variance is denoted by W2. Unlike the sample variance, the population vari-
ance is constant and is given by

§
N 2
xi  Q
i !1
W2 ! , (1.4)
N

where X in Equation 1.3 is replaced by Q.

Because calculation of the variance involves squaring the original measure-
ments, the measurement units of the variance are the square of the original
measurement units. While variance is a useful measure of the relative variability
of two sets of measurements, it is often preferable to express variability in the
same units as the original measurements. Such a measure is obtained by taking
the square root of the variance, yielding the standard deviation. The formulas
for the sample and population standard deviations are given, respectively, as

§
n 2
xi  X
i !1
s! s ! 2
(1.5)
n1

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 §
N 2
xi  Q
i !1
W! W !2
. (1.6)
N

Consistent with previous results, the sample standard deviation s2 is a ran-

dom variable, whereas the population standard deviation W is a constant.
A mathematical theorem attributed to Chebyshev establishes a general
rule, which states that at least 1  1 k 2 of all observations in a sample or
population will lie within k standard deviations of the mean, where k is not
necessarily an integer. For the approximately bell-shaped normal distribu-
tion of observations, an empirical rule-of-thumb suggests that the following
approximate percentage of measurements will fall within 1, 2, or 3 standard
deviations of the mean. These intervals are given as

X  s, X  s ,

which contains approximately 68% of the measurements,

X  2 s, X  2 s ,

which contains approximately 95% of the measurements, and

X  3 s, X  3 s ,

which contains approximately 99% of the measurements.

The standard deviation is an absolute measure of dispersion; it does not
take into consideration the magnitude of the values in the population or
sample. On some occasions, a measure of dispersion that accounts for the
magnitudes of the observations (relative measure of dispersion) is needed.
The coefficient of variation is such a measure. It provides a relative measure
of dispersion, where dispersion is given as a proportion of the mean. For a
sample, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given as

s
CV ! . (1.7)
X

If, for example, on a certain highway section vehicle speeds were

observed with mean X = 45 mph and standard deviation s = 15, then the
CV is s/ X = 15/45 = 0.33. If, on another highway section, the average
vehicle speed is X = 60 mph and standard deviation s = 15, then the CV
is equal to s/ x = 15/65 = 0.23, which is smaller and conveys the informa-
tion that, relative to average vehicle speeds, the data in the first sample
are more variable.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 TABLE 1.1
Descriptive Statistics for Speeds on Indiana Roads
Statistic Value
N (number of observations) 1296
Mean 58.86
Std. deviation 4.41
Variance 19.51
CV 0.075
Maximum 72.5
Minimum 32.6
Upper quartile 61.5
Median 58.5
Lower quartile 56.4

Example 1.1

By using the speed data contained in the “speed data” file that can be
downloaded from the publisher’s Web site (www.crcpress.com), the basic
descriptive statistics are sought for the speed data, regardless of the
season, type of road, highway class, and year of observation. Any com-
mercially available software with statistical capabilities can accommo-
date this type of exercise. Table 1.1 provides descriptive statistics for the
speed variable.

The descriptive statistics indicate that the mean speed in the sample
collected is 58.86 mph, with little variability in speed observations (s is
low at 4.41, while the CV is 0.075). The mean and median are almost
equal, indicating that the distribution of the sample of speeds is fairly
symmetric. The data set contains more information, such as the year of
observation, the season (quarter), the highway class, and whether the
observation was in an urban or rural area, which could give a more
complete picture of the speed characteristics in this sample. For example,
Table 1.2 examines the descriptive statistics for urban vs. rural roads.

Interestingly, although some of the descriptive statistics may seem to

differ from the pooled sample examined in Table 1.1, it does not appear
that the differences between mean speeds and speed variation in urban
vs. rural Indiana roads is important. Similar types of descriptive statistics
could be computed for other categorizations of average vehicle speed.

1.4 Skewness and Kurtosis

Two additional attributes of a frequency distribution that are useful are
skewness and kurtosis. Skewness is a measure of the degree of asymmetry

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 TABLE 1.2
Descriptive Statistics for Speeds on Rural vs. Urban
Indiana Roads
Statistic Rural Roads Urban Roads
N (number of observations) 888 408
Mean 58.79 59.0
Std. deviation 4.60 3.98
Variance 21.19 15.87
CV 0.078 0.067
Maximum 72.5 68.2
Minimum 32.6 44.2
Upper quartile 60.7 62.2
Median 58.2 59.2
Lower quartile 56.4 56.15

of a frequency distribution. It is given as the average value over the entire

population (this is often called the third moment around the mean, or
third central moment, with variance the second moment). In general, when
the distribution stretches to the right more than it does to the left, it can
be said that the distribution is right-skewed, or positively skewed. Simi-
larly, a left-skewed (negatively skewed) distribution is one that stretches
asymmetrically to the left (Figure 1.2). When a distribution is right-
skewed, the mean is to the right of the median, which in turn is to the
right of the mode. The opposite is true for left-skewed distributions. To
make the measure (xi – Q)3 independent of the units of measurement of
the variable, it is divided by W3. This results in the population skewness
parameter often symbolized as K1. The sample estimate of this parameter,
(g1), is given as

m3
g1 ! , (1.8)
( m2 m2 )

Right-Skewed Left-Skewed
Distribution Distribution

Symmetric
Distribution

Mean = Median = Mode Mode Mean Mean Mode

Median Median

FIGURE 1.2
Skewness of a distribution.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

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