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Majority Minority
Majority Minority
Justin Gest
 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the
University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing
worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and
certain other countries.
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.
© Justin Gest 2022
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in
writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under
terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning
reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department,
Oxford University Press, at the address above.
You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same
condition on any acquirer.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2021950971
ISBN 978–0–19–764179–8
eISBN 978–0–19–764181–1
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197641798.001.0001
The difference between peace and mayhem is velocity.
—Teju Cole, Blind Spot
Contents

Acknowledgments

PART I DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE NATION-STATE

1. Majority Minority: An Introduction
2. Escape Velocity: The Pull of Nationalism amid
Demographic Change
3. Pathways of Majority-Minority Societies: A
Comparative Historical Analysis

PART II ISLAND NATIONS

4. “An Unnatural Country”: Singapore’s Quest to Control
the Uncontrollable
5. None for All: Citizenship and Peoplehood in Bahrain
6. Masked Conflict: Carnival and Power Relations in
Trinidad and Tobago
7. Where We Belong: Maroon Villages and National
Memory in Mauritius
8. Internal Affairs: Why New York’s Irish Still Run the
Police Department
9. Culture Change: How Hawai‘i Found Harmony in Its
Demise

PART III REDEFINING THE PEOPLE

10. From Backlash to Coexistence: How Institutional
Choices Determine Social Boundaries
11. Nation-Building: Messages and Messengers That
Cultivate Coexistence
12. Borderline White: The Past and Future of Race in
American Politics
13. Reimagined Communities: Connectedness as a
Criterion for Governance

Appendix
Notes
Bibliography
Index
Acknowledgments

The seventeenth-century English poet John Donne, wrote, “No man

is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a
part of the main.”
In pursuing this study of many islands—some on the periphery of
the earth—in order to understand trends on the mainlands of today’s
politics, I was no exception to Donne’s rule. Indeed, I was reliant on
the support of so many dear colleagues and friends; they were each
a bridge over the shifting sea.
Majority Minority was first conceived during my 2017 study leave
at Henrietta Moore’s Institute for Global Prosperity at University
College London. Henrietta has always nourished my creativity and
ambition, and I am forever in debt for her guidance. While in
London, I had a fateful meeting with my other beloved mentor,
David Held, at St. Pancras Station. David passed away before I ever
saw him again, but his advice that August day was—as ever—so
intelligent and pivotal to my formulation of this book.
Upon my return to Washington, DC, I was in frequent
correspondence with Jack Goldstone, who always found time to read
drafts of this book and its contents. His advice was sage,
constructive, and so clarifying. In January 2021, Jack also
masterfully chaired a two-day book workshop, during which I
received invaluable feedback from brilliant thinkers, including
Richard Alba, Johanna Birnir, Eve Fairbanks, Nancy Foner, Morris
Levy, Noora Lori, Roger Waldinger, Min Zhou, and Daniel Ziblatt.
Thank you, all.
In between the book’s conception and completion, I learned an
enormous amount from Mark Frost, Hidetaka Hirota, and Mariko
Iijima, my collaborators in a special issue of the Journal of Ethnic
and Migration Studies. Raymond Ramcharitar was another key
contributor, indispensable to my fieldwork in Trinidad and Tobago
and my general intellectual development these past few years. I am
also grateful for the engagement of Amitava Choudhury, Jane
Kinninmont, and Davianna Pōmaikaʻi McGregor, the last of whom
was indispensable to my fieldwork in Hawai‘i. I could not have
covered so much ground without you all. My thanks also to the
journal’s editors, Paul Statham and James Hampshire.
In my fieldwork and case studies, I am profoundly grateful for the
generosity of my many respondents. They trusted me, gave me their
time, and opened their souls in a remarkably candid way. I am also
indebted to various people whom I cannot thank publicly for the
information and tips they provided off the record or on background.
In the field, I was further aided by guidance from Hussain Al-Shabib,
Betsy Cole, James Crabtree, and Justin Gengler, and research
assistance from Justin Fraterman and Sally Kishi.
In my survey research, I appreciate the wisdom and friendship of
my coauthors, Jeremy Ferwerda, Morris Levy, and Tyler Reny—
wonderful partners and excellent scholars who have contributed so
much to my understanding of political behavior and political
psychology.
Different parts of the book benefited from a Social Science
Research Council workshop led by Ira Katznelson, a special-issue
partnership with Karen Alter and Michael Zürn, a journal workshop at
George Mason University sponsored by Dean Mark Rozell, and
personal feedback from Daphne Halikiopoulou and Steve Levitsky. I
also want to thank Terri Givens, Eric Kaufmann, and the many
anonymous colleagues who reviewed either the book manuscript or
articles related to its contents over the last few years.
At Oxford University Press, I would like to thank my editors,
Angela Chnapko, Dave McBride, and Niko Pfund for their balanced
judgment, smart management, and faith in my work. Thanks also to
Alexcee Bechthold, Richa Jobin, David Lampo, Mehmet Yildirim, and
Alex Reeves for their work in preparing the book for publication.
Indirectly, this book benefited from my countless conversations
with the unsung heroes of American civil society addressing the
social challenges of demographic change and the political conflict it
is generating. In particular, Wendy Feliz and Suzette Brooks Masters
have been invaluable thought partners, and I also appreciate the
impactful conversations I have had with luminaries like Samar Ali,
Tom Davis, Josh Dickson, Mary Ellen Geiss, Jonathan Gruber, Zac
Hill, Caroline Hopper, Katie Lauer, Maya MacGuineas, Andrew
Mangino, Mike Murphy, Eboo Patel, Ashley Quarcoo, Stephen Noble
Smith, Tim Shriver, Mike Van Haelewyn, and Eric Ward. If the United
States is to surmount these challenges, it will be thanks in no small
part to the tireless efforts of this motley group.
My fieldwork and survey experiments were made possible by
research grants from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for
Europe, Bloomberg Philanthropies’ New American Economy, the
Charles Koch Foundation, and the International Republican Institute.
Thank you for your interest in the politics of immigration and
demographic change and your generous support of my research
agenda.
Subtly, silently, but substantially, this book has the fingerprints of
my outstanding research assistant, Tim O’Shea. There was no task
too daunting, too extraordinary, or too arduous for Tim. He rose to
every occasion and supported the preparation of my manuscript
despite his own scholarly pursuits and other commitments. And he
did it all with charisma and a great sense of humor.
Finally, for their personal support, I would like to thank my friends,
and especially my family—Max and Gail, Darren and Rebecca; Phillip
and Franklin; György and Tanja; Ádám and George; Valentina and
Hugo; and my dear Monika, who keeps everything in perspective for
me and does so much to facilitate the work that brings me so much
joy. As David Held wrote in one of his last messages to me, “Life is a
joy. The rest will fall into place.”
Justin Gest
Arlington, Virginia
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 PART I
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE NATION-STATE
1
Majority Minority
An Introduction

A Fortune Told
On March 3, 2015, the date for American social upheaval was set.
That day, the US Census Bureau published a report projecting that
by 2044, the United States would become a “majority-minority”
country—that is, a country where immigration and fertility rates lead
one or more ethnic or religious minorities to outnumber the original
ethnic or religious majority. In the United States, it has been
understood as a scenario where non-Hispanic white people comprise
less than 50 percent of the population.1 The report’s release spurred
a string of news analyses—some gleeful, others anxious—about “the
end of the white majority” just one generation away, a stunning
forecast in a normally obscure government write-up.
The report’s author never realized just how pivotal her projections
would be to the course of American politics.
“No one’s ever called my work ‘historic,’ ” said Jennifer Ortman,
chief of the Bureau’s Population Projections Branch at the time of the
report’s publication, “but I suppose you get people’s interest when
you talk about where they are going. It’s like a fortune teller, saying
here’s what our nation might look like in 10 or 20 years.”2
Americans’ reactions were swift and came from across the political
spectrum. White nationalists fear-mongered about “white extinction,”
while Democrats in Washington, DC, declared that “demography is
destiny” to herald their hoped-for future electoral victories with the
decline of the Republicans’ principal constituency. The predicted
demographic decline of the majority racial group in a majoritarian
democracy provoked equal parts anxiety and anticipation, and a large
dose of hyperbole. Nearly all ignored the way that racial boundaries
had historically shifted over the course of American history and how
they might shift again.3
Demographic change has been driving wedges between Americans
for decades, and these divides only deepened after the Census
Bureau report’s release. America’s two political camps have hardened
into those who embrace this projected future and those who resist it.
On one side, leaders talk globalism, immigration, and reparation. On
the other, they invoke nationalism, nativism, and nostalgia.
Studies have demonstrated the ways in which the most fearful
Americans exaggerate the size of minority populations. However,
even when their perceptions are corrected, such groups’ attitudes
toward immigration remain very restrictive.4 Extensive evidence
suggests that demographic change and the cultural threat that many
Americans think it poses drove the 2016 election of Donald Trump
and his overhaul of the Republican Party’s approaches to immigration
policy and global affairs.5 There is a simultaneous sense of racial
resentment and being left behind.6
The American experience has inspired fear in other multiethnic
democracies that have also experienced changes in their immigration
flows since the 1960s. Convinced that American demographic shifts
presage their own futures, nativist movements and far-right political
parties in other nations have grown in power. These groups advocate
against further immigration and for the systematic assimilation or
expulsion of ethnic and religious minorities already present. It doesn’t
matter that the demography of places like Britain, France, Germany,
Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden bears little resemblance to
that of the United States. The demographic anxieties, the
racialization, the nationalism are the same.

Culture Wars
Across these American and European contexts, the sharp growth in
the number of foreign-born people coincided with other major
transformations in the late twentieth century. The decline of the
manufacturing era stimulated the shift to a more service-oriented
global market and a political realignment. This economic shift
weakened the wealth, status, and political clout of millions of native-
born white people and thousands of labor unions—which had long
powered center-left and socialist parties across the transatlantic
space. In the 1990s, Democrats, Liberals, and Labourites won a
series of elections thanks to their incremental embrace of neoliberal
economics. These “third way” politics brought the left into greater
agreement with their center-right counterparts, leaving future
elections to be contested much more on cultural grounds.
In the United States, debates raged over whether homosexual
people should be permitted to serve in the military or marry, whether
civilians have a right to own and carry automatic weapons, and the
place of prayer and religion in schools. And as the Democratic Party
became increasingly associated with immigrants and racial and
religious minorities, Republicans also shifted debates to corner their
counterparts into unpopular defenses of undocumented immigrants,
refugees, asylum seekers, and Muslims.
This national discussion—oriented to mobilize voters to protect or
rethink traditional American values—tested the extent of individual
rights, tolerance, and empathy. Supporting further immigration or
minority rights became associated with other cultural viewpoints
about the prevalence of structural racism, the legality of recreational
drug use, or what constitutes sexual assault. Each new value-driven
debate suggested another dimension of American identity that was
suddenly subject to demographic change and the shifts in cultural
beliefs that accompanied it.
These debates and others moved into matters of moral conviction
and lifestyle. Rather than ideological disagreements about how to
pursue shared values, these culture wars implied the presence of
vastly different value systems that attenuated the American social
fabric. State and local governments began passing laws that created
different legal environments where different parts of America
endorsed different ways of life. Partisans moralized about the other
side’s constituents until it became conventional to perceive political
counterparts to be fundamentally evil or depraved. As each new
election posed a greater existential threat, Democrats and
Republicans stepped up efforts to delegitimize electoral victories
through impeachments, claims of election fraud and tampering, and
conspiracy theories.
The result is an impasse—a political stalemate and legislative
paralysis amid the racialization of American politics and the
politicization of American culture.7 Today, most Republican voters
self-identify as white, vast majorities of nonwhite racial and religious
minorities support Democrats, and American elections pivot on highly
symbolic identity politics. Rather than broaden their outreach to rural
or white working-class constituents, many on the left wait for
demographic change to reach its righteous destiny. And rather than
evolve with the demography of the country, many on the right trade
in demonstrably false narratives and contort democratic institutions to
sustain power. The imperative of culture wars is to narrow rather
than broaden coalitions, purging those who compromise and question
the moral orthodoxy.

How Individuals Respond to Demographic

Change
Up until now, most of our knowledge about large-scale responses to
demographic change extrapolates from social and psychological
studies of individual people’s reactions to different events or
information. Much of this research has focused on the United States
as a sort of laboratory in light of its remarkably diverse and
diversifying population (see Figure 1.1). Between 1980 and 2015, the
number of people of Hispanic origin has increased in every American
state and 95 percent of all counties; in three states—California, New
Mexico, and Texas—the population has reached majority minority
status. A fourth state, Hawai‘i, has been majority minority for some
time.8 In the same time period, the Asian American population
increased in forty-nine states, the African American population
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 Artificial Intelligence - Solution Manual
Summer 2022 - Department

Prepared by: Instructor Miller

Date: July 28, 2025

Topic 1: Comparative analysis and synthesis

Learning Objective 1: Historical development and evolution
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 2: Experimental procedures and results
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 2: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Learning Objective 3: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Learning Objective 4: Best practices and recommendations
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 4: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Learning Objective 5: Case studies and real-world applications
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Example 5: Study tips and learning strategies
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Key terms and definitions
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Current trends and future directions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Definition: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Lesson 2: Historical development and evolution
Note: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 11: Literature review and discussion
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 12: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Practical applications and examples
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 13: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Current trends and future directions
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 14: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Key terms and definitions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 15: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Important: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Historical development and evolution
• Literature review and discussion
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Ethical considerations and implications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Example 18: Best practices and recommendations
• Experimental procedures and results
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Best practices and recommendations
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Exercise 3: Practical applications and examples
Definition: Ethical considerations and implications
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Important: Study tips and learning strategies
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Practice Problem 22: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Practice Problem 24: Key terms and definitions
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 25: Current trends and future directions
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Practical applications and examples
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 27: Best practices and recommendations
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 28: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Remember: Key terms and definitions
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 29: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Example 29: Best practices and recommendations
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Methodology 4: Practical applications and examples
Practice Problem 30: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Historical development and evolution
• Case studies and real-world applications
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Practice Problem 33: Key terms and definitions
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Best practices and recommendations
• Statistical analysis and interpretation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Remember: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Theoretical framework and methodology
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Definition: Ethical considerations and implications
• Learning outcomes and objectives
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 37: Interdisciplinary approaches
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 38: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Fundamental concepts and principles
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Literature review and discussion
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 40: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Section 5: Key terms and definitions
Important: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Comparative analysis and synthesis
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 41: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Definition: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
[Figure 42: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Current trends and future directions
• Assessment criteria and rubrics
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
Important: Critical analysis and evaluation
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Theoretical framework and methodology
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 45: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Statistical analysis and interpretation
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Definition: Assessment criteria and rubrics
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
[Figure 47: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Key Concept: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Best practices and recommendations
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Ethical considerations and implications
• Critical analysis and evaluation
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
[Figure 49: Diagram/Chart/Graph]
Practice Problem 49: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Results 6: Research findings and conclusions
Example 50: Key terms and definitions
• Current trends and future directions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 51: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Important: Problem-solving strategies and techniques
• Research findings and conclusions
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Example 53: Literature review and discussion
• Interdisciplinary approaches
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Remember: Historical development and evolution
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Key Concept: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Fundamental concepts and principles
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Note: Ethical considerations and implications
• Study tips and learning strategies
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Practice Problem 57: Learning outcomes and objectives
• Historical development and evolution
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Key Concept: Practical applications and examples
• Problem-solving strategies and techniques
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
Definition: Comparative analysis and synthesis
• Practical applications and examples
- Sub-point: Additional details and explanations
- Example: Practical application scenario
- Note: Important consideration
Formula: [Mathematical expression or equation]
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