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Region
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Region
Planning the Future of the Twin Cities
Unless otherwise credited, all maps copyright 2009 by the Institute on Race and Poverty,
University of Minnesota, http://www.irpumn.org.
The maps were created by William Lanoux, Eric Myott, and Aaron Timbo.
Design and composition by Yvonne Tsang at Wilsted & Taylor Publishing Services
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording,
or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Orfield, Myron.
Region : planning the future of the Twin Cities / Myron Orfield and Thomas F. Luce Jr. ;
with Geneva Finn . . . [et al.].
p. cm.
“Published in cooperation with Institute on Race and Poverty.”
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8166-6556-3 (hc : alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-8166-6557-0 (pb : alk. paper)
1. Regional planning—Minnesota—Minneapolis Metropolitan Area. 2. Regional planning—
Minnesota—Saint Paul Metropolitan Area. I. Luce, Thomas F. II. University of Minnesota.
Institute on Race and Poverty. III. Title.
HT394.M6O75 2009
307.1'209776579-dc22 2009009248
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Con t en ts
Figures
1.1 Expenditures by Twin Cities local governments 6
1.2 Revenue sources by Twin Cities local governments 7
1.3 Location of Twin Cities local governments 10
1.4 Local government boundaries 11
1.5 Regressivity of Minnesota state and local taxes 14
1.6 Growth in urbanized land, population, and households 22
1.7 Fragmentation and sprawl, fifty largest U.S. metropolitan areas 23
1.8 Fragmentation and job growth, fifty largest U.S. metropolitan areas 26
1.9 Property tax capacity per household 36
1.10 Fragmentation and fiscal inequality, largest U.S. metropolitan areas 41
1.11 Projected and actual growth shares by community 47
2.1 Seven-county population and urban service area 61
2.2 Subsidized housing in the suburbs 75
2.3 Fragmentation and urban sprawl, largest U.S. metropolitan areas 78
3.1 Percentage of elementary school students eligible for free lunch,
twenty-five largest U.S. metropolitan areas 92
3.2 Percentage of elementary school students eligible for free
lunch in the Twin Cities 92
3.3 Percentage of students attending schools with high poverty rates 93
3.4 Percentage of students attending schools with
very high poverty rates 94
3.5 Population in segregated settings, twenty-five largest
metropolitan areas 97
3.6 Population in segregated settings, Twin Cities 97
3.7 Population in segregated settings, Portland 98
3.8 Status of tracts that were white–black integrated in 1980,
twenty-five largest U.S. metropolitan areas 99
3.9 Percentage of students in segregated school settings,
twenty-five largest U.S. metropolitan areas 105
3.10 Percentage of students in segregated school settings, Twin Cities 106
3.11 Average resegregation rates in neighborhoods vs. schools 107
vii
3.12 Status of schools that were black–white integrated
or multiethnic integrated in 1992, twenty-five
largest U.S. metropolitan areas 108
3.13 Distribution of affordable housing
across community types, Twin Cities 131
3.14 Fragmentation and segregation, twenty-five largest
U.S. metropolitan areas 140
3.15 Growth of charter school enrollments in Minnesota 157
3.16 Students of color in segregated school settings by school type 158
3.17 Percentage of students proficient in reading and eligible
for free or reduced-cost lunch in elementary schools 161
3.18 Percentage of students proficient in math and eligible
for free or reduced-cost lunch in elementary schools 162
4.1 Freeway lane-miles 211
4.2 Traffic management statistics 212
4.3 Unlinked public transportation passenger trips per person 213
4.4 Increased traffic congestion and highway spending, Atlanta 217
4.5 Increased traffic congestion and highway spending, Twin Cities 217
5.1 Growth in urbanized land, households, and population 227
5.2 Projected growth in households by community type 245
5.3 Percentage of total area that is nonurban, unprotected,
and sensitive by community type 246
5.4 Projected and actual growth shares by community classification 248
5.5 Projected and actual growth shares
in the core region and collar counties 251
6.1 Metropolitan Council districts with Republican representatives 268
7.1 Democratic votes as a percentage
of Democratic and Republican votes 274
7.2 Democratic votes as a percentage of Democratic
and Republican votes by locations 274
7.3 Distribution of total votes 275
7.4 Percentage of suburbs with Democratic voting majorities by location 275
7.5 Distribution of total votes by community type 278
7.6 Party preferences of suburban communities by community type 279
7.7 Average voter volatility 280
7.8 Average voter volatility by suburban community type 282
7.9 Distribution of votes in volatile places by community type 283
7.10 Distribution of leaning volatile votes 283
Maps
Tables
1.1 Integration of the collar counties into the Twin Cities
metropolitan area 27
1.2 Fiscal equity: Gini coefficients for tax capacity per household 40
1.3 Characteristics of community types 45
1.4 Distribution of projected population growth 46
2.1 Suburban subsidized housing 76
3.1 Distribution of racial groups across community types 91
3.2 Distribution of school types 105
3.3 Exposure indexes for Twin Cities schools 106
3.4 Metropolitan Integration Scenarios 152
3.5 Choice Is Yours student residence locations 165
3.6 Choice Is Yours school district attendance 165
4.1 Employment center jobs and job growth 179
4.2 Job growth 180
4.3 Jobs and job growth, Atlanta, Portland, and Twin Cities 181
4.4 Job growth and racial breakdowns by employment center type 186
4.5 Job growth and racial breakdowns by employment center growth 187
4.6 Population density of urbanized area: Atlanta, Portland,
and Twin Cities 191
4.7 Means of transportation to work: Atlanta, Portland,
and Twin Cities 193
4.8 Means of transportation to work by race and ethnicity:
Atlanta, Portland, and Twin Cities 194
4.9 Selected commuter shed characteristics in four employment centers 205
4.10 Commuter shed areas and percentage change 207
4.11 Percentage of regional population within 30 minutes
of employment centers 208
4.12 Percentage of regional population within 30 minutes
of employment centers, Atlanta 209
4.13 Percentage of regional population within 30 minutes
of employment centers, Portland 209
4.14 Percentage of regional population within 30 minutes
of employment centers, Twin Cities 210
4.15 Percentage of housing affordable at 50 percent of regional
median income in 0–30 minute commuter sheds 210
5.1 Distribution of households and developable land by community type 247
5.2 Distribution by development patterns 249
B.1 Distribution of population across neighborhood types
by race–ethnicity, largest metropolitan areas 297
B.2 Distribution of population across neighborhood types
by race–ethnicity, Twin Cities 298
B.3 Distribution of population across neighborhood types
by race–ethnicity, Portland 299
B.4 Racial change in integrated tracts, Twin Cities 300
B.5 Racial change in segregated tracts, Twin Cities 301
B.6 Racial change in integrated tracts, largest metropolitan areas 302
B.7 Racial change in segregated tracts, largest metropolitan areas 303
B.8 Racial change in integrated tracts, Portland 304
B.9 Racial change in segregated tracts, Portland 305
B.10 Distribution of elementary students by race and school type,
largest metropolitan areas 307
B.11 Distribution of elementary students by race and school type,
Twin Cities 308
B.12 Racial change in integrated schools, Twin Cities 309
B.13 Racial change in segregated schools, Twin Cities 310
B.14 Racial change in integrated schools, largest metropolitan areas 311
B.15 Racial change in segregated schools, largest metropolitan areas 312
B.16 Racial change in integrated schools, Portland 313
I n t roduct ion
Myron Orfield and Thomas F. Luce Jr.
P
eople and jobs are steadily decentralizing into the suburbs of the Twin
Cities and most other U.S. metropolitan areas. This trend threatens to un-
dermine a host of regional policy objectives, including controlling sprawl;
increasing opportunities for disadvantaged populations; implementing transit; de-
creasing racial, ethnic, and economic segregation; and conserving natural assets
and open space. These trends are especially detrimental to low-income households
and people of color, who are often concentrated in lower-opportunity inner-city
neighborhoods and inner-ring suburbs. Because these policy problems transcend
municipal boundaries, regional approaches are required to ensure a more equitable
and sustainable arrangement of opportunities in metropolitan areas.
The Twin Cities metropolitan area provides an excellent case study of these
issues. The region’s highly fragmented system of local governance helps explain
several undesirable recent trends in the region, including increasingly scattered de-
velopment patterns, increasing segregation, growing fiscal inequality, and threats to
the area’s natural assets. At the same time, comparisons to other metropolitan areas
suggest that the region’s relatively strong regional planning system helps mitigate
these patterns.
Region: Planning the Future of the Twin Cities is an effort to bring much bet-
ter regional data to bear to illuminate how the region operates, to refine the goals
of regional policy, and to reinvigorate interest in reshaping regional policy. It is
about using more in-depth data and analysis to think more clearly about the socio-
economic polarization that is occurring in the region and to become more explicit
about what to do—and what not to do—about it.
The analysis presented here adds a perspective not often used in the Twin Cit-
ies, namely, race. Historically one of the least racially diverse areas in the country,
the region is rapidly becoming more diverse. Not only has race become a central
factor in the evolution of the region’s development, it must also now be added to
governance, taxes, land use, the economy, and partisan politics as an essential con-
sideration when evaluating potential solutions for regional problems. Race is not
included because it is easier to do so or because current thinking demands it. Quite
the opposite: adding race to the equation invariably complicates issues, and Ameri-
cans are more and more prone to dismiss it as a central question in policy debates.
xiii
xiv | Introduction
Race is a focus because policy solutions that do not address race are not likely to
make much difference to the deepest problems of inequality and segregation.
The focus of this book is the Twin Cities metropolitan area, but it is intended
to inform policy discussions and analysis in other regions as well. The problems
and policies it deals with are universal to U.S. metropolitan areas, and wherever
possible the Twin Cities experience is compared to other areas through the use of a
large comparative data set for other large metropolitan areas or by more in-depth
direct comparison with a few other metropolitan areas.
The book begins by documenting how the Twin Cities region is governed, how it
has grown, and the great diversity of its local areas. As in most metropolitan areas,
the region’s public sector is highly fragmented. Area municipalities, school districts,
special districts, and counties overlap, resulting in more than 1,700 unique com-
binations of tax rates and public services. Perhaps more important, the region has
nearly three hundred cities and townships, each pursuing its own land use agenda.
Reflecting this, undeveloped land (and farmland) has been converted to urban uses
at significantly greater rates than population has grown. Population growth has
followed the classic pattern of American metropolitan areas with much more rapid
growth in second- and third-ring suburbs than in the core. Current projections pre-
dict more of the same in coming decades.
Unbalanced growth is reflected in fiscal inequality. Tax bases are growing most
slowly in the core, and tax rates are highest and increasing most rapidly there. But
stress is not limited to the central cities. Analysis of suburban diversity using tax
base, socioeconomic, and job data shows several distinct types of suburbs in the
region. Nearly a third of suburban households live in cities or townships experienc-
ing the kinds of stress formerly associated solely with central cities. These “stressed
suburbs” show low and slow-growing tax bases combined with high and fast-
growing social costs. Another 45 percent live in rapidly growing areas with only
modest fiscal resources. These “developing job centers” and “bedroom developing”
suburbs are middle-class areas facing increasing school costs and congestion. Only
a quarter of suburban households live in areas with strong tax bases and few social
costs—“developed job centers” and “affluent residential suburbs.” However, even
these areas must deal with the costs of growth—especially the congestion associ-
ated with rapid growth in the large, relatively low-density job centers and scattered
job sites that dominate growth patterns in modern America.
Chapter 2 describes the history and powers of the institution with the greatest
capacity to alter these patterns—the Twin Cities Metropolitan Council. The coun-
cil is empowered to coordinate planning and development in the region and has un-
doubtedly mitigated many of the disparities documented in chapter 1. For instance,
although the region shows many of the same difficulties seen in metropolitan areas
across the country, it also shows lower fiscal inequality and less sprawl than would
be expected given the extreme fragmentation in its local governance structure.
Introduction | xv
Since the Met Council’s inception in the early 1970s, the legislature has periodi-
cally increased its powers, especially during the 1990s. It is now the most power-
ful regional government in the country. However, in recent years the council has
retreated from policy leadership in many areas. It has reduced the impact of the
metropolitan urban service area (MUSA)—the boundaries within which the coun-
cil supports growth with regional services such as wastewater collection and treat-
ment. In 1986, for instance, 78 percent of urbanized land in the council’s seven-
county area was inside the MUSA. But only 52 percent of land that urbanized in the
next sixteen years was inside the MUSA.
The Met Council has also retreated from many of the more proactive develop-
ment objectives of its “youth,” such as a long-standing emphasis on promoting
growth in job clusters large enough and dense enough to support transit. Although
the region is now pursuing a (very) long-term strategy to develop alternatives to the
automobile—light-rail transit and commuter rail—the Twin Cities still has one of
the least developed transit systems in the country among large metropolitan areas,
more than thirty years after the formation of the Met Council.
Finally, numerous attempts to make the council more responsive by converting
it from an appointed to an elected body have failed. As a result, the council is still at
risk of switching from 100 percent one party to 100 percent the other every time a
new governor is elected. This means not only that the council is almost never truly
representative of a region that is fairly evenly split between the parties and between
fully developed core areas and growing suburbs, but also that it tends to lurch from
one philosophy of regional growth to another, reducing its long-run impact.
Chapter 3 documents the region’s rapidly growing racial diversity and the in-
creasing degree to which the races are separated into segregated neighborhoods and
schools. Historically one of the least diverse regions in the country, the Twin Cities
have seen very rapid growth in African American, Asian, and Latino populations,
including many recent immigrants from East Africa, Laos, and Central America.
Recent estimates put the number of languages spoken at home by students in the
Minneapolis public school district at more than eighty. As nonwhite populations
grew, many of the region’s core neighborhoods and schools initially became inte-
grated. However, most neighborhoods and schools that were integrated at a point in
time were actually in transition, and very high shares of the region’s African Ameri-
can, Asian, and Latino populations now attend schools or live in neighborhoods
that are predominantly nonwhite. Segregation is increasing for most residents of
color, even as it is declining for whites.
Racial segregation is not just about race. It is about access to opportunity. Where
you live affects your access to jobs, good schools, and basic economic prospects
in life. If racial segregation limits people’s residential choices, then it undermines
equality of opportunity. Segregation especially hurts residents of color by limiting
their residential choices to lower-opportunity parts of the region. Racial steering in
xvi | Introduction
housing markets, for instance, often pushes residents of color toward less affluent
neighborhoods with struggling schools and high crime rates.
Racial segregation is not simply the result of the housing market’s neutrally
sorting people according to their preferences and economic status. Discriminatory
behavior by a number of public and private actors has shaped housing markets.
Actions by private actors (e.g., steering by real estate agents and discriminatory
business practices of financial institutions, mortgage brokers, and insurance agents)
perpetuate segregation. Public actors also contribute to the problem. Housing poli-
cies of the federal government, decisions by school districts, and land use policies
in municipalities all contribute to racial segregation. Segregation is not written in
stone; it can be reversed by eliminating the policies and practices that generate it.
Court action toward schools has not produced long-term integration because
federal courts have been unwilling to enforce remedies across district or municipal
boundaries. State court solutions, like the Choice Is Yours interdistrict transfer
program, have been promising but are small scale, and many of the inner suburbs
participating in the program are now going through racial transitions themselves.
Chapter 4 looks at the spatial organization of the labor markets using a rela-
tively new tool—the commuter shed. Data on where people live and work are used
to illustrate a variety of features of the regional labor market. Jobs tend to cluster
into job centers, and not surprisingly, middle and outer suburban job centers are
growing much more rapidly than those in inner suburbs or the central cities. At
the same time, the tendency for jobs to cluster at all is weakening. The region’s jobs
are both decentralizing into middle and outer suburbs and deconcentrating into
scattered-site developments. The result is that the automobile has become even
more of a necessity and transit has become less viable. Three important results
of this shift are decreasing access to growing parts of the region for lower-income
workers, increasing average vehicle miles traveled across the region, and continuing
residential sprawl into the periphery—a distressing set of inequitable and environ-
mentally unfriendly outcomes.
These patterns at least partly reflect policy. Early in the Met Council’s history,
its planning objectives clearly encouraged clustering. This emphasis has nearly dis-
appeared from more recent plans.
Unbalanced growth, decentralization, and deconcentration have also led to in-
creasing congestion, especially in the suburbs. Commuter sheds—the area within
which workers can commute to a particular job center in a reasonable time—are
shrinking everywhere, but most rapidly in the suburbs. Commuter sheds for the
fastest-growing areas in middle and outer suburbs also include little of the region’s
affordable housing and few of its people of color. This kind of unbalanced access to
opportunity is an important contributor to inequality across incomes and races.
The decentralization of population and jobs documented in chapters 1 and 4
frames the analysis of environmental issues in chapter 5. The Twin Cities have a
Introduction | xvii
diverse ecology and there are nearly 500,000 acres of unprotected sensitive natural
areas left in the region, including 120,000 acres classified as high-quality wetland
and terrestrial habitats. More and more of the region’s lakes and streams are now
classified as “impaired,” including 27 percent of stream miles and 37 percent of lake
area. In addition, Lake Pepin, which is just beyond the region’s official boundaries
along the Mississippi River, was recently reclassified as impaired. EPA restrictions
resulting from this directly affect the entire metropolitan area because virtually all
of the region’s lakes and streams feed eventually into Lake Pepin.
The spatial analysis of sensitive natural areas in the region shows clearly that
they tend to cluster in local areas with lower than average tax capacities—areas
with the fewest resources to protect them and the most incentives to develop them.
In addition, sensitive lands cluster in the area just beyond the region’s fully de-
veloped suburbs, putting them directly in the path of projected future growth.
Municipality-by-municipality simulations of projected growth show that unless fu-
ture growth occurs at much higher densities than in the recent past, either much of
the region’s sensitive natural areas will be developed or growth will be pushed far-
ther and farther to the periphery. One group of fast-growing suburbs with modest
fiscal resources (developing job centers in the community classification presented in
chapter 1) in particular is expected to receive more growth than those suburbs will
be able to accommodate.
Chapter 6 summarizes the regional policies proposed in each of the earlier chap-
ters in five policy areas: land use planning, housing and schools, economic develop-
ment and transportation, the environment, and governance. In land use planning,
the focus is on more aggressive administration of the MUSA, stricter review of local
plans by the Met Council, and the need for a reinvigorated state planning system.
Housing and school policy suggestions focus on equalizing access to opportunity
across races and income groups with more aggressive pro-integrative policies in
housing markets and the school system. Improved transit, more efficient use of the
existing highway system, and increased emphasis on redevelopment activities in
fully developed areas are underscored in the economic development and transporta-
tion policy discussion. The importance of integrating environmental concerns into
local and regional planning processes is stressed in the growth and environment dis-
cussion. Finally, the governance section emphasizes the need to create or strengthen
institutions with the geographic scope appropriate for each policy area. For most of
the highlighted policy areas, the appropriate scale is clearly regional. The regional
scale of housing and labor markets means that local planning, housing, school,
transportation, economic development, and environmental policies inevitably have
an impact on neighboring communities and, often, the region as a whole. If these
costs and benefits are ignored when policies are designed and implemented, then the
region as a whole will clearly be shortchanged by the results.
The overriding theme of the analyses and the policy discussions is that metro-
xviii | Introduction
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