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NAVIGATING PUBLIC OPINION
This page intentionally left blank
 NAVIGATING
PUBLIC OPINION
Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy

Edited by
JEFF MANZA
FAY LOMAX COOK
BENJAMIN I. PAGE

OXPORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS
20O2
 OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS

Oxford New York

Auckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai
Dar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kolkata
Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi
Sao Paulo Shanghai Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto
and an associated company in Berlin

Copyright © 2002 by Oxford University Press, Inc.

Published by Oxford University Press, Inc.

198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016

www.oup.com

Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Navigating public opinion : polls, policy, and the future of American democracy / edited by
Jeff Manza, Fay Lomax Cook, and Benjamin I. Page.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-19-514933-5; ISBN 0-19-514934-3 (pbk.)
I. Public opinion—United States. 2. Public opinion polls.
1. Manza, Jeff. II. Cook, Fay Lomax. III. Page, Benjamin I.
HN90.P8 N385 2002
303.3'8'o973—dc21 2002020128

135798642

Printed in the United States of America

on acid-free paper
 PREFACE

At the tail end of the Clinton administration, on the late-night television show
Politically Incorrect (a show that brings together a random group of celebrities
nightly to talk about the news), a discussion began about Bill Clinton's allegedly
excessive reliance on polls in making policy decisions. Toward the end of the
segment, the host of the show, comedian Bill Maher, cynically remarked that
maybe we shouldn't think of this as such a bad thing after all, because at least
by using polls, the government is listening to the American people. The audience
broke into wild applause at his ironic comment.
The tensions captured in that moment are real. The relationship between
citizens' preferences and what governments (and politicians) do is at the core of
democratic governance. In the last few years, a new level of sophistication in
research on these topics has entered into debates over these classical questions.
Analysts have developed new theories and methods for assessing the impact of
public opinion, the role of elites in shaping public opinion, and how we measure
and conceptualize public opinion in the first place. This volume aims to incor-
porate these frequently spirited debates, juxtaposing diverse positions in dialogue
with one another with the hopes of providing readers with a sense of the state
of the art, and the issues that remain open for further investigation. We have
entitled this book Navigating Public Opinion to try to capture the diverse ways
in which the authors in this book suggest that political actors engage public
opinion: some view public opinion as creating waves that move the ship of state;
others see the waves of public opinion as buffeted by the forces generated by
VI PREFACE

politicians or other elites; still others are concerned with the instruments used to
gauge it in the first place.
This volume emerged from a conference on the theme "Polls, Policy, and
the Future of American Democracy," sponsored by the Institute for Policy Re-
search at Northwestern University, and held on Northwestern's Evanston campus
in May 2000. We thank our fellow conference organizers—Dennis Chong, Susan
Herbst, Lawrence Jacobs, and Charles Manski—for putting together that event
on a modest budget. The other program participants (Scott Althaus, Paul Quirk,
Richard Sobel, Richard Longworth, Amy Searight, David Axelrod, and Kenneth
Abbott) provided thoughtful commentaries and other significant contributions to
the conference. We are indebted to several sources for support at Northwestern:
the Institute for Policy Research, the Program on American Studies, the Deans
of Speech and the Weinberg College of Arts and Science, the Center for Inter-
national and Comparative Studies, and the Departments of Political Science and
Sociology.
This book and the conference which preceded it were both made possible
by the superb administrative efforts of Audrey Chambers and Ellen Whittingham
of the Institute for Policy Research at all stages of the project. Capable research
assistance was provided by Michael Sauder and Marcus Britton. Several people
provided additional advice or other help with this project: in particular, we thank
Clem Brooks, Robert Shapiro, and John Tryneski. We also thank our editor at
Oxford University Press, Dedi Felman, for arranging absolutely stellar anonymous
reviews of the first draft of the manuscript and providing very helpful guidance
in reshaping the manuscript for publication. We also thank those anonymous
reviewers for their careful and informative suggestions. Last, but not least, we
want to publicly thank all of the contributors to this volume for (mostly) getting
their chapters in on time, with minimal prodding from the editors, and also for
the quality and seriousness of purpose reflected in what they have written.

Evanston, IL Jeff Manza

September 2001 Fay Lomax Cook
Benjamin Page
 CONTENTS

Contributors xi

Navigating Public Opinion: An Introduction 3

JEFF MANZA, FAY LOMAX COOK, AND
B E N J A M I N I. PAGE

PART I. DOES POLICY RESPONSIVENESS EXIST?

1. The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy: The State
of the Debate 17
JEFF MANZA AND FAY LOMAX COOK

2. Public Opinion and Policy: Causal Flow in a Macro

System Model 33
ROBERT S. E R I K S O N , MICHAEL B. M A C K U E N , AND
JAMES A. STIMSON

3. Politics and Policymaking in the Real World: Crafted Talk

and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness 54
LAWRENCE R. JACOBS AND ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO

4. Panderers or Shirkers? Politicians and Public Opinion 76

ROBERT S. ERIKSON, MICHAEL B. MACKUEN, AND
JAMES A. STIMSON
Viii CONTENTS

5. Public Opinion and Congressional Action on Labor

Market Opportunities, 1942-2000 86
PAUL BURSTEIN

6. Polls, Priming, and the Politics of Welfare Reform 106

R. KENT WEAVER

7. The Power Elite, Public Policy, and Public Opinion 124

G. WILLIAM DOMHOFF

PART II. HOW POLITICAL ELITES

USE PUBLIC OPINION
8. Policy Elites Invoke Public Opinion: Polls, Policy Debates,
and the Future of Social Security 141
FAY LOMAX COOK, JASON BARABAS, AND
BENJAMIN I. PAGE

9. How State-Level Policy Managers "Read" Public Opinion 171

SUSAN HERBST

10. Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, and Democracy: How

Presidents Use Public Opinion 184
ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO AND LAWRENCE R. JACOBS

11. How Policymakers Misperceive U.S. Public Opinion on

Foreign Policy 201
STEVEN KULL AND CLAY RAMSAY

PART III. MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION

12. The Authority and Limitations of Polls 221
PETER V. MILLER

13. An Anatomy of Survey-Based Experiments 232

MARTIN GILENS

14. Probabilistic Polling 251

CHARLES F. MANSKI

15. The Future of Polling: Relational Inference and the

Development of Internet Survey Instruments 272
JAMES WITTE AND PHILIP E. N. HOWARD

16. The Sovereign Status of Survey Data 290

TAEKU LEE
 CONTENTS iX

PART IV. CONCLUSION

17. The Value of Polls in Promoting Good Government and
Democracy 315
HUMPHREY TAYLOR

18. The Semi-Sovereign Public 325

BENJAMIN I. PAGE

References 345
Index 373
This page intentionally left blank
 CONTRIBUTORS

JASON BARABAS is assistant professor of political science at Southern Illinois Uni-

versity. His research in political behavior focuses on public opinion, political
psychology, deliberation, and public policy. His work has been published in In-
ternational Studies Quarterly and Political Analysis.

PAUL BURSTEIN is a professor of sociology and adjunct professor of political

science, University of Washington, Seattle. He is the author of Discrimination,
Jobs, and Politics: The Struggle for Equal Employment Opportunity in the United
States since the New Deal (University of Chicago Press, 1998) and articles on public
opinion, social movement organizations, and policy change. His current work
focuses on how public opinion, the party balance, interest groups, and social
movement organizations affect congressional action on proposals for policy
change.

FAY LOMAX COOK is the director of the Institute for Policy Research and professor
of human development and social policy in the School of Education and Social
Policy, with a joint appointment in the Department of Political Science, at North-
western University. She conducts research on the relationship between public
opinion and social policy, the politics of public policy, and the dynamics of public
support for social programs. She is the author or coauthor of Who Should Be
Helped? Public Support for Social Services (Sage Publications, 1979); The Journalism
of Outrage: Investigative Reporting and Agenda Building in America (Guilford
Publications, 1991, with David Protess and others); and Support for the American

xi
Xii CONTRIBUTORS

Welfare State: The Views of Congress and the Public (with Edith J. Barrett, Colum-
bia University Press, 1992). She is past president and a fellow of the Gerontological
Society of America and a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance.

G. WILLIAM DOMHOFF is a research professor in sociology at the University of

California, Santa Cruz, where he teaches a course on power, politics, and social
change. He also has taught at the University of California, Santa Barbara; the
University of Paris; and Colgate University, where he was a Lindsay O'Connor
Chair in American Institutions in 2001. Four of his books are among the top fifty
best-sellers in sociology for the years 1950 to 1995: Who Rules America? (Prentice-
Hall, 1967); The Higher Circles (Random House, 1970); The Powers That Be (Ran-
dom House, 1979); and Who Rules America Now? (Simon and Schuster, 1983). His
empirical refutation of Robert A. Dahl's Who Governs?, published under the title
Who Really Rules? New Haven and Community Power Reexamined (Transaction
Books, 1978), was a runner-up for the C. Wright Mills Prize awarded annually by
the Society for the Study of Social Problems. More recently he is the author of
The Power Elite and the State (Aldine de Gruyter, 1990); State Autonomy or Class
Dominance? (Aldine de Gruyter, 1996); and Who Rules America: Power and Politics,
4th Edition (McGraw-Hill, 2002). He won the Distinguished Contributions to
Scholarship Award from the Pacific Sociological Association in 1999.

ROBERT S. ERIKSON is a professor of political science at Columbia University. He

has won the Heinz Eulau Award of the American Political Science Association
and the Pi Sigma Alpha Award of the Midwest Political Science Association. He
has coauthored American Public Opinion: Its Origins, Content, and Impact (6th
ed., 2001), The Macro Polity (Cambridge University Press, 2002), and Statehouse
Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 1993).

MARTIN GILENS is an associate professor of political science and associate director

of the Institute for Social Science Research at UCLA. His interests include public
opinion and mass media, the American welfare state, racial attitudes, and survey
methods. His current research examines the forces that shape Americans' public
policy preferences and the consequences of those preferences for government
policymaking. Professor Gilens is the author of Why Americans Hate Welfare:
Race, Media and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy (University of Chicago Press,
1999) and has published on media, race, gender, and welfare politics in the Amer-
ican Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal
of Politics, the British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly, and
the Berkeley Journal of Sociology.

SUSAN HERBST is a professor and chair of the political science department at

Northwestern University. She is author of several books on public opinion, most
recently Reading Public Opinion (University of Chicago Press, 1998) and coauthor
of the textbook Public Opinion (Westview Press, 1999).
 CONTRIBUTORS Xiii

PHILIP E. N. HOWARD is completing his Ph.D. in sociology at Northwestern Uni-

versity. His dissertation research is an ethnographic and network study of the
political campaign consultants who specialize in new media and communication
technologies. He has published several articles and book chapters on the use of
new media and polling technologies in politics and is editing a book about the
Internet and American life.

LAWRENCE R. JACOBS is a professor of political science, adjunct professor in the

Hubert H. Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota, and associate
director of the Institute of Social, Economic, and Ecological Sustainability. In
addition to articles in the American Political Science Review, Comparative Politics,
and World Politics, his books include Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipu-
lation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness (University of Chicago Press,
2000, with Robert Shapiro), which won book awards from the Kennedy School
at Harvard University, the American Political Science Association, and the Amer-
ican Sociological Association; The Health of Nations: Public Opinion and the Mak-
ing of Health Policy in the U.S. and Britain (Cornell University Press, 1993); and
Inequality and the Politics of Health (coedited with James Morone and Lawrence
D. Brown) (Westview Press, 2002).

STEVEN KULL is director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, a joint

program of the Center on Policy Attitudes and the Center for International and
Security Studies at the University of Maryland, and a member of the faculty at
the University's School of Public Affairs. A political psychologist specializing in
the study of public and elite attitudes on public policy issues, he has conducted
numerous nationwide polls and focus groups. He is regularly interviewed by the
media, and briefs officials in the government in the United States and Europe,
NATO, and the UN on the U.S. public. His most recent book, coauthored with
I. M. Destler, is Misreading the Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism (Brookings
Institution Press, 1999). In the 1980s, at Stanford University, he carried out a study
of defense policymakers that resulted in his book Minds at War: Nuclear Reality
and the Inner Conflicts of Defense Policymakers (Basic Books). Later, he carried
out a study of Soviet "new thinking," publishing his findings as Burying Lenin:
The Revolution in Soviet Ideology and Foreign Policy (Westview Press). Dr. Kull is
a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the American Association for
Public Opinion Research.

TAEKU LEE is an assistant professor of public policy at Harvard's Kennedy School

of Government. He is author of Mobilizing Public Opinion (University of Chicago
Press, 2002), and has written on the role of identity, language, information, trust,
stereotypes, and discrimination in shaping racial attitudes and racial politics. Lee
is also currently at work on projects that examine the politics of obesity and the
role of elite influence on public support for health care reform.
XiV CONTRIBUTORS

MICHAEL B. MACKUEN is Burton Craige Distinguished Professor of Political Sci-

ence at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He has won the Heinz
Eulau Award of the American Political Science Association and the Pi Sigma
Alpha Award of the Midwest Political Science Association. He has coauthored
The Macro Polity (Cambridge University Press, 2002), Affective Intelligence and
Political Judgment (University of Chicago Press, 2000), and More than the News:
Two Studies of Media Power (Sage Publications, 1981).

CHARLES F. MANSKI has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at North-

western University since 1997. He formerly was a member of the faculty at the
University of Wisconsin-Madison (1983-98), the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
(1979-83), and Carnegie Mellon University (1973-80). Manski's research spans
econometrics, judgment and decision, and the analysis of social policy. He is the
author of Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard University Press,
1995) and Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics (Chapman & Hall, 1988),
coauthor of College Choice in America (Harvard University Press, 1983), and co-
editor of Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs (Harvard University Press,
1992) and Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications (MIT
Press, 1981). Manski has served as director of the Institute for Research on Poverty
(1988-91) and as chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics (1994-98). At the National Research Council, he has been chair of the
Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998-2001) and a
member of the Committee on National Statistics (1996-2000) and the Commis-
sion on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (1992-98), among other
activities.

JEFF MANZA is an associate professor of sociology and political science and a

Faculty Fellow at the Institute of Policy Research at Northwestern University. His
research and teaching interests are in political sociology, social stratification, and
social policy. He is the coauthor of Social Cleavages and Political Change: Voter
Alignments and U.S. Party Coalitions (Oxford University Press, 1999), which re-
ceived a distinguished book prize from the political sociology section of the Amer-
ican Sociological Association, and Locking Up the Vote: Felon Disfranchisement
and American Democracy (Oxford University Press, forthcoming).

PETER V. MILLER is associate dean for external programs in the School of Speech
and associate professor of communication studies at Northwestern University. His
research has focused on interviewer and mode effects in survey research, audience
measurement, political polling, and mass media effects. He is coeditor of two
collections of essays on preelection polls in presidential campaigns. He has served
two terms on the Executive Council of the American Association for Public Opin-
ion Research, one as Standards Chair and one as Conference Chair. Miller was
appointed editor of Public Opinion Quarterly in 2001, having served as associate
editor for the journal's Poll Review section for several years.
 CONTRIBUTORS XV

BENJAMIN I. PAGE is Gordon Scott Fulcher Professor of Decision Making in the

Department of Political Science at Northwestern University. He is the author or
coauthor of eight books, including Who Gets What from Government (University
of California Press, 1983), Who Deliberates (University of Chicago Press, 1996),
The Rational Public (University of Chicago Press, 1992), and What Government
Can Do (University of Chicago Press, 2000).

CLAY RAMSAY has been research director of the Program on International Policy
Attitudes (a joint program of the Center on Policy Attitudes and the Center for
International and Strategic Studies at the University of Maryland) since 1999, and
senior fellow since 1993. He has coauthored numerous reports and articles on the
program's work (notably The Foreign Policy Gap: How Policymakers Misread the
Public, with Steven Kull and I. M. Destler, 1997) and currently the on-line refer-
ence "Americans and the World" Web site (www.americans-world.org). He is also
a historian of modern Europe and the author of The Ideology of the Great Fear
(Johns Hopkins). He received his Ph.D. in history from Stanford University and
has taught at Oberlin College.

ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO is a professor of political science and the current chair of

the Political Science Department at Columbia University. He specializes in Amer-
ican politics with research and teaching interests in public opinion, policymaking,
political leadership, the mass media, and the applications of statistical methods.
Professor Shapiro has published numerous articles in major academic journals
and is coauthor of The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy
Preferences (with Benjamin I. Page, University of Chicago Press, 1992). His recent
book, Politicians Don't Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic
Responsiveness (with Lawrence R. Jacobs, University of Chicago Press, 2000), was
the winner of the Goldsmith Book Prize (of the Press/Politics Center, John F.
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University) and also awards from the
American Sociological Association and American Political Science Association.

JAMES A. STIMSON is Raymond Dawson Distinguished Professor of Political Sci-

ence at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He has won the Heinz
Eulau and Gladys Kammerer Awards of the American Political Science Associa-
tion, the Chastain Award of the Southern Political Science Association, and the
Pi Sigma Alpha Award of the Midwest Political Science Association. He is the
author of Public Opinion in America: Mood, Cycles, and Swings (2nd ed., Westview
Press, 1999) and the coauthor of The Macro Polity (Cambridge University Press,
2002), and Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics
(Princeton University Press, 1989).

HUMPHREY TAYLOR is the chairman of The Harris Poll, a service of Harris In-
teractive. He has had overall responsibility for more than 8,000 surveys in 80
countries. He writes a weekly column syndicated in over 100 newspapers. He has
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