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 7

S t u d ie s in t h e H i s t o ry o f R e l i g i o u s a n d P o l i ti c a l P lu r a li sm
This book examines Pakistan’s nuclear behaviour from the 1950s onwards

Rizwana Abbasi
against the background of the emerging global non-proliferation system.
The author probes the broader questions of the extent to which Pakistan’s
conduct was factored into the global non-proliferation regime and why
that regime failed to constrain Pakistan’s choice to go nuclear.

The book goes on to argue that in order to fully understand Pakistan’s Pakistan and the
nuclear policy, the Indian case must also be considered. Therefore, this
New Nuclear Taboo

❘ Pakistan and the New Nuclear Taboo

book provides a comprehensive scholarly account of the history of both
India's and Pakistan’s technological developments leading to their decision
to develop nuclear weapons and confront the NPT constraints. The question
of nuclear proliferation by Pakistan’s most prominent scientist, Dr A. Q.
Khan, its nuclear behaviour after the disclosure of this proliferation case, 7
and the recent development of counter-proliferation measures at a global
level are all analysed in this volume. The security of Pakistan’s nuclear Regional Deterrence and the
weapons and the question of the state’s reliability within the ranks of
the global community remain hotly debated issues. Pakistan and the New International Arms Control Regime
Nuclear Taboo offers the compelling argument that a new nuclear taboo
against proliferation has emerged to prevent nuclear risks regionally
and globally: since 2004, it is argued, Pakistan has played a key role in
helping to establish this new nuclear taboo against the proliferation of
nuclear weapons. The ‘three models’ approach adopted here provides the
most comprehensive and up-to-date theoretical perspective on Pakistan’s
nuclear behaviour and helps illuminate nuclear policy dynamics and the
role of international institutions in regulating the conduct of states in
other regions as well.

Rizwana Abbasi holds a PhD from the Department of Politics and Inter­
national Relations, University of Leicester, UK, specialising in Inter­national
Security and Nuclear Non-proliferation. She is a Post-doctoral Research
Rizwana Abbasi
Fellow at the University of Leicester and is Assistant Professor, Department
of Strategic and Nuclear Studies (Faculty of Contemporary Studies) at the
National Defence University, Islamabad.
Peter Lang
ISBN 978-3-0343-0272-2

www.peterlang.com
 7

a n d P o l i t i c a l P lu r a li m
s
This book examines Pakistan’s nuclear behaviour from the 1950s onwards

Rizwana Abbasi
against the background of the emerging global non-proliferation system.
The author probes the broader questions of the extent to which Pakistan’s
conduct was factored into the global non-proliferation regime and why
that regime failed to constrain Pakistan’s choice to go nuclear.

The book goes on to argue that in order to fully understand Pakistan’s Pakistan and the
nuclear policy, the Indian case must also be considered. Therefore, this
New Nuclear Taboo

❘ Pakistan and the New Nuclear Taboo

book provides a comprehensive scholarly account of the history of both
India's and Pakistan’s technological developments leading to their decision
to develop nuclear weapons and confront the NPT constraints. The question

s
of nuclear proliferation by Pakistan’s most prominent scientist, Dr A. Q.
7

eligiou
Khan, its nuclear behaviour after the disclosure of this proliferation case,
and the recent development of counter-proliferation measures at a global
level are all analysed in this volume. The security of Pakistan’s nuclear Regional Deterrence and the
weapons and the question of the state’s reliability within the ranks of

R
the global community remain hotly debated issues. Pakistan and the New International Arms Control Regime

i t o ry o f
Nuclear Taboo offers the compelling argument that a new nuclear taboo
against proliferation has emerged to prevent nuclear risks regionally
and globally: since 2004, it is argued, Pakistan has played a key role in
helping to establish this new nuclear taboo against the proliferation of

s
nuclear weapons. The ‘three models’ approach adopted here provides the

H
most comprehensive and up-to-date theoretical perspective on Pakistan’s

in t h e
nuclear behaviour and helps illuminate nuclear policy dynamics and the
role of international institutions in regulating the conduct of states in
other regions as well.

s
S t u d ie
izwana bba i holds a PhD from the Department of Politics and Inter
R
A
s
­
national Relations, University of Leicester, UK, specialising in International
Rizwana Abbasi
­
Security and Nuclear Non-proliferation. She is a Post-doctoral Research
Fellow at the University of Leicester and is Assistant Professor, Department
of Strategic and Nuclear Studies (Faculty of Contemporary Studies) at the
National Defence University, Islamabad.
Peter Lang

www.peterlang.com
 Pakistan and the
New Nuclear Taboo
Studies in the
History of Religious
and Political Pluralism

Volume 7

Edited by Richard Bonney

PETER LANG
Oxford • Bern • Berlin • Bruxelles • Frankfurt am Main • New York • Wien
 Pakistan and the
New Nuclear Taboo
Regional Deterrence and the
International Arms Control Regime

Rizwana Abbasi

PETER LANG
Oxford • Bern • Berlin • Bruxelles • Frankfurt am Main • New York • Wien
Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek.
Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche
Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available on
the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Abbasi, Rizwana, 1978-

Pakistan and the new nuclear taboo : regional deterrence and the
international arms control regime / Rizwana Abbasi.
pages ; cm. -- (Studies in the history of religious and
political pluralism ; 7)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-3-0343-0272-2 (alkaline paper)
1. Nuclear nonproliferation--Pakistan. 2. Nuclear weapons--Government
policy--Pakistan. 3. Nuclear weapons--Pakistan. 4. Deterrence
(Strategy) 5. Nuclear arms control. I. Title. II. Series: Studies in
the history of religious and political pluralism ; 7.
JZ5675A25 2012
327.1’747095491--dc23
2012012636

ISSN 1661-1985
ISBN 978-3-0343-0272-2
ISBN 978-3-0353-0311-7 (eBook)

© Peter Lang AG, International Academic Publishers, Bern 2012

Hochfeldstrasse 32, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
[email protected], www.peterlang.com, www.peterlang.net

All rights reserved.

All parts of this publication are protected by copyright.
Any utilisation outside the strict limits of the copyright law, without the
permission of the publisher, is forbidden and liable to prosecution.
This applies in particular to reproductions, translations, microfilming,
and storage and processing in electronic retrieval systems.

Printed in Germany
Contents

Acknowledgements ix

Abbreviations xi

Richard Bonney
General Editor’s Introduction 1

Introduction 17
Theoretical perspective 27
Plan of the book 30
Methodology 34

chapter 1
Regime Theory:
A Three-Models Approach to International Relations 37
Regime theory and key approaches in international relations 37
A three-models approach: realism, neo-liberalism,
and constructivism 43
From norms to the first taboo 54
The NPT regime and the second taboo 63
The status of the NPT: regime theory and
the three-models approach 76
Conclusion 78
vi

chapter 2
Identifying Pakistan’s Nuclear Behaviour (1950s–1986) 81
Introduction 81
Identifying Pakistan’s strategic culture: a three-models approach 83
From Independence to 1965: Indian and Pakistani nuclear
capacities compared 87
The 1965 war: policy shifts in Pakistan, elite decisions, and a
changing threat perception 97
The security factor (1970–1975) 104
Pakistan achieves nuclear capability: the role of the scientific elite
(1975–1987) 116
Conclusion 133

chapter 3
Pakistan’s Nuclear Behaviour in Crisis Situations:
From Non-Weaponized Deterrence to Weaponized Deterrence
(1986–1999) 137
Introduction 137
Understanding a regional environment in crisis situations 138
Pakistan’s nuclear behaviour in crisis situations 141
Pakistan and developments in non-proliferation from 1990 153
Towards the 1998 tests 159
Perception of Pakistan’s behaviour after the 1998 tests:
the inf luence of weaponized deterrence 167
The border stand-of f of 2001–2002 171
Conclusion 176
 vii

chapter 4
Pakistan’s Transition from Vertical to Horizontal Proliferation 179
Introduction 179
A. Q. Khan’s behaviour from the 1990s 181
Khan’s behaviour and the responsibility of the state 206
The responsibility of global institutions 209
Conclusion 212

chapter 5
Pakistan’s Behaviour after the Khan Revelations (2004–2009) 215
Introduction 215
Global initiatives towards non-proliferation:
the cooperation-based approach 217
Pakistan establishes the new nuclear taboo 228
Conclusion: the relevance of regime theory to the
new nuclear taboo 248

chapter 6
Pakistan as Part of the Non-proliferation Challenges –
Presenting Solutions 251
Introduction 251
Non-proliferation policies and global problems 253
An old debate in a new context 263
Solutions drawn from regime theory: strengthening the
new nuclear taboo 265
Reviewing the NPT framework to help change the behaviour
of states 267
Revisiting regime theory, neo-liberals, and constructivists 286
viii

Conclusion:
Pakistan, Regime Theory, and the Non-proliferation Regime 289
Pakistan’s behaviour: the three-models approach 290
Why the NPT has failed in the case of Pakistan 294
The new nuclear taboo – the role of international institutions
following the A. Q. Khan revelations 296
How institutional counter-proliferation cooperation might evolve 299
The three-models approach: strengths and limitations 304
The adequacy and limitations of regime theory 306

Appendix: Interviewees 309

Select Bibliography 313

Index 341
Acknowledgements

Writing a book is a time of immense paradoxes for international research-

ers in the United Kingdom. At times life may be enveloped by remarkably
active social circles and yet at others the loneliness and isolation one feels
in conducting a sensitive project of this magnitude for the first time can be
overwhelming. It has been my God-gifted fortune through these years to
have been surrounded by highly expert colleagues, professional mentors,
loyal friends – and most of all, my parents and siblings who have supported
me while living thousands of miles away to an extent that only someone
who has also gone through this experience can appreciate.
I am grateful to Professor Adrian Hyde-Price, who, with his extensive
and significant academic record in the field and ability to communicate
his vision, was of immeasurable inspiration to my approach to political
science and to my desire to become an expert on my subject. Sincere and
deep gratitude then goes to Professor Mark Phythian, who supervised my
PhD and later encouraged me at all stages with his professionalism, his
scholarship, and his regular, prompt, and detailed supervision. His sup-
port and cooperation throughout greatly facilitated the completion of this
study within the required time limit.
There are two people who have touched my life in such a way that
words can scarcely express, to both of whom this book is humbly dedicated.
Beyond the realm of non-proliferation issues, Professor Richard Bonney,
with his immense academic record, has been a great friend and mentor and
has come to understand me like few others. I give him thanks from the
core of my heart for his valuable time, support, and encouragement over
the last five years during my PhD and later producing this book. Another
great, humble, and kind person came into my life when I was at the initial
stages of research and he has been a great source of encouragement and
guide in enhancing my self-confidence: Professor Richard Johnson will
be remembered for my entire life for his skilled guidance in my study of
x Acknowledgements

international regimes. I have benefited enormously from each of these

experts’ individual expertise. Apart from these two individuals, this book
is also dedicated to my brother, Brigadier Zakeer Abbasi, who encouraged
and motivated me throughout while living thousands of miles away.
My sincere thanks also go to Dr Hans Blix, former Director-General of
the IAEA, Dr Olli Heinonen, Deputy Director of the IAEA and Director-
General of international safeguards and Dr Stephen P. Cohen for their
precious time so that I could conduct interviews with them. I am deeply
grateful to the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management for giving me
the opportunity to speak at its 50th and 51st annual meetings in Tucson,
Arizona and Baltimore, MD respectively, which was a great learning expe-
rience in the course of completing this research. I greatly benefited from
these conferences and the interviews which I conducted during my visit
to the United States in 2009. I owe an especial gratitude to General (rtd)
Ehsan, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staf f and Director-General
ISI, Pakistan, for giving his precious time for an interview, and also Mr
Asif Durrani, Deputy High Commissioner, High Commissionof Pakistan,
London, and Kamran Akhter, then Director Disarmament Cell, Ministry
of Foreign Af fairs, Pakistan, again for his precious time and generous advice
in several interviews.
At the University of Leicester, I would not have been able to complete
my dissertation without the facilities of the David Wilson Library. In par-
ticular, the Document Supply Services did a superb job in making avail-
able research material in a timely fashion through the British Library. The
facilities given by the Department of Politics and International Relations,
University of Leicester, also contributed immensely in finalizing this
research.
Abbreviations

ABM anti-ballistic missile

ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Af fairs (Pakistan)
AEC Atomic Energy Commission
AER Atomic Energy Research
AG Australia Group
AP Additional Protocol
ATGM anti-tank guided missile
BJP Bharatiya Janata Party
BMD ballistic missile defence
C&C Command and Control
CANDU Canada Deuterium Uranium
CBM confidence-building measure
CCCCIISR Computerized Command Control, Communications,
Information Intelligence and Surveillance Directorate
CCD charge-coupled device
CD Conference on Disarmament
CENTO Central Treaty Organization
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CIR Canada-India Reactor
CNS Centre for Non-proliferation Studies
COCOM Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export
Controls
CSI Container Security Initiative
xii Abbreviations

CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

CTR Cooperative Threat Reduction
CWC Chemical Weapons Convention
DCC Defence Committee of Cabinet
DG Director-General
DOD Department of Defense (US)
DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
DTD Director of Technical Development
DU dual use
EC European Community
ED existential deterrence
ENDC Eighteen Nations Disarmament Committee
ERL Engineering Research Laboratories
EU European Union
EURATOM European Atomic Energy Community
EXBS Export Control and Related Border Security Assistance
FDO Flexible Deterrent Options
FMCT Fissile Material Cut-of f Treaty
FSS full-scope safeguards
FSU Former Soviet Union
GP global partnership
HEU highly enriched uranium
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IAEC Indian Atomic Energy Commission
ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile
ICTP International Center for Theoretical Physics
IGMDP Integrated Missiles Development Programme
Abbreviations xiii

INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

INMM Institute of Nuclear Materials Management
IR international relations
IRBM intermediate-range ballistic missile
IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies, London
ISI Inter Services Intelligence
ITDB Illicit Traf ficking Database
KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant
KRL Khan Research Laboratory
KT kiloton
LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba
LoC Line of Control
LTBT Limited Test Ban Treaty
MNC multinational company
MoD Ministry of Defence
MoU Memorandum of Understanding
MPI Megaports Initiative
MRBM medium-range ballistic missile
MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime
MW megawatt
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NCA National Command Authority
NDU National Defence University, Islamabad
NMD National Missile Defence
NNSA National Nuclear Security Administration (US)
NNWS non-nuclear weapons state(s)
NPCIL Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd.
xiv Abbreviations

NPR Nuclear Posture Review

NPT Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty
NPTRC Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference
NSAP National Security Action Plan
NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group
NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative
NWD non-weaponized deterrence
NWFP North West Frontier Province
NWFZ nuclear weapons-free zone
NWFZSA Nuclear Weapons-free Zone in South Asia
NWS nuclear weapons state(s)
OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
PAL Permissive Action Link (security device for nuclear
weapons)
PAROS Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space
PARR Pakistan Research Reactor
PIDC Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation
PINSTECH Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology
PITAC Pakistan Industrial and Technical Centre
PNE peaceful nuclear explosion
PNRA Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority
PNSRP Pakistan Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection
(Ordinance 1984 and Regulation 1990)
PSI Proliferation Security Initiative
PTBT Partial Test Ban Treaty
R&D research and development
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
Abbreviations xv

SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks

SAM surface-to-air missile
SCI Container Security Initiative
SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
SECDIV Strategic Export Control Divisions
SFCD Strategic Force Communication Planning
SLBM submarine-launched ballistic missile
SPD Strategic Plans Division (Pakistan)
SRAM short-range attack missile
SRO Statutory Regulatory Orders
SSBN ballistic [missile] nuclear [powered] submersible ship
(= Trident Ballistic Missile Submarine)
SSOD Special Session on Disarmament
START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks
TIFR Tata Institute of Fundamental Research
TMD Theatre Missile Defence
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle ( = Predator or drone)
UE uranium enrichment
UF6 uranium hexaf luoride
UKAEA United Kingdom Atomic Energy Agency
UN United Nations
UNSC United Nations Security Council
UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution
WA Wassenaar Arrangement
WD weaponized deterrence
WMD weapon(s) of mass destruction
ZC Zangger Committee
Richard Bonney

General Editor’s Introduction

On 28 May 1998, Pakistan became the world’s seventh nuclear power and
the first nuclear weapons state in the Islamic world. The true father of
Pakistan’s nuclear weapon is not the self-publicist Dr A. Q. Khan but
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto,1 who took power in the aftermath of the Pakistani
military collapse in the Bangladesh war in 1971. On two occasions – on 11
March 19652 and much later, when writing from prison – Bhutto referred
to the lack of an ‘Islamic bomb’: ‘only the Islamic civilization was without
it.’ But in the first case his remark was domestic rhetoric for the masses and
propaganda to help ensure finance from Muslim-majority countries. In the
second case, Bhutto was perhaps ref lecting on the double standards of the
existing nuclear states.3 Subsequently, in 1978, General Zia made a similar
statement. ‘China, India, the USSR and Israel in the Middle East possess
the atomic arm’, he declared. ‘No Muslim country has any. If Pakistanis had
such a weapon, it would reinforce the power of the Muslim World.’4

1 David Armstrong and Joseph Trento, America and the Islamic Bomb. The Deadly
Compromise (Hanover, NH: Public Education Center, 2007), 169.
2 George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (London:
University of California Press, 2001), 108 and 541 n. 14. ‘If India builds the bomb,
we will eat grass and leaves for a thousand years, even go hungry, but we will get one
of our own. The Christians have the bomb, the Jews have the bomb and now the
Hindus have the bomb. Why [should] not the Muslims too have the bomb?’ ‘The
Christian, Jewish and Hindu civilizations have this capability. The communist powers
also possess it. Only the Islamic civilization was without it, but that position was
about to change.’ Z. A. Bhutto, If I am Assassinated (New Delhi: Vikas, 1979), 138.
3 Z. A. Bhutto, ‘Notes from death cell’, 36: http://www.scribd.com/doc/7171285/
Zulfiqar-Ali-Bhutto-Notes-From-Death-Cell
4 Armstrong and Trento, America and the Islamic Bomb, 79.
2 Richard Bonney

When it came to authorizing the Pakistani nuclear tests of 1998, Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif confessed to the nation on 28 May that he had
consulted the Holy Qur’an, and in particular Q.8:60,5 an injunction to
‘always to keep your horses ready’ which in the contemporary context
could be taken to mean the latest technology of war: ‘Against them make
ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war,
to strike terror into (the heart of ) the enemies of Allah and your enemies
and others beside whom you do not know but Allah doth know, what-
ever ye shall spend in the cause of Allah shall be repaid unto you and ye
shall not be treated unjustly.’ On the other hand, there are both Sunni and
Shi’ite fatawa denouncing the use of nuclear weapons as contrary to Islam.
Whether these arguments would withstand the challenge of a threat to
the existence of the state concerned, such as an attack on Iran, is a matter
of opinion.6

5 http://www.paktoday.com/islamic.htm (accessed 7 Dec. 2011). The text is also cited by

R. Mowatt-Larssen, Islam and the Bomb. Religious Justification for and against Nuclear
Weapons (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Af fairs,
Harvard Kennedy School, 2010), 25. http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/
PakOf fAnnounce1.txt Of ficial Announcement from the Pakistan Government
Website, 28 May 1998, quoting from the speech of Nawaz Sharif: ‘My decision ha[s]
the full support of the president of Pakistan, provincial chief ministers, governors
and chiefs of armed forces.’ ‘He urged the people to contribute generously towards
the national exchequer and pay their taxes honestly. During the course of his speech
the Prime Minister … appreciated the support extended by friendly countries in the
face of Indian threats and its nuclear option. He particularly mentioned the support
of Pakistan’s great friend China for its steadfast support.’
6 ‘Iran is a nuclear fuel cycle technology holder, a capability which is exclusively for
peaceful purposes, read a statement issued by the Islamic Republic at the emer-
gency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors
here Tuesday evening [8 August 2005]. The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran,
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has issued the fatwa that the production, stockpil-
ing and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that Iran shall never
acquire these weapons, Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency quoted from the
statement.’ http://web.archive.org/web/20060322134428/http://www.iran-daily.
com/1384/2347/html/index.htm (accessed 7 Dec. 2011). However, ‘the uniquely
Shiite principle of taqiyya is also likely to have an important inf luence on Iranian
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