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A groundbreaking book that transforms the debate
about global warming by offering a fresh per
spective based on human needs as well as environ
mental concerns.
Bjorn Lomborg argues that many of the elaborate
and expensive actions now being considered to stop
global warming will cost hundreds of billions of dol
lars, are often based on emotional rather than strictly
scientific assumptions, and may very well have little
impact on the world's temperature for hundreds of
years. Rather than starting with the most radical pro
cedures, Lomborg argues that we should first focus
our resources on more immediate concerns, such as
fighting malaria and HIV/AIDS and assuring and
maintaining a safe, fresh water supply—which can be
addressed at a fraction of the cost and save millions of
lives within our lifetime. He asks why the debate over
climate change has stifled rational dialogue and killed
meaningful dissent.
Lomborg presents us with a second generation of
thinking on global warming that believes panic is nei
ther warranted nor a constructive place from which to
deal with any of humanity's problems, not just global
warming. Cool It promises to be one of the most
talked about and influential books of our time.
BJORN LOMBORG is the author of The Skeptical
Environmentalist. He was named one of the 100 most
influential people in the world by Time magazine in
2004 and has written for numerous publications,
including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal,
and The Economist. He is presently an adjunct profes
sor at the Copenhagen Business School, and in 2004
he started the Copenhagen Consensus, a conference
of top economists who come together to prioritize the
best solutions for the world's greatest challenges.
www.lomborg.com
Jacket art and design by Chip Kidd
Alfred A. Knopf, Publisher, New York
www.aaknopf.com
9/2007
"Bjorn Lomborg's rational and compassionate suggestions would
save more lives, preserve more wilderness, and have a better chance
of eventually halting man-made global warming than hysterical
catastrophism, global treaties, and high-minded energy rationing.
R e a d this ingenious book."
— M A T T R I D L E Y , author of The Origins of Virtue
"Lomborg affirms that the planet is warming, but questions why so
much of the policy debate is framed around the idea of imminent
catastrophe. This book dares to offer straightforward new thinking
about h o w best to respond. Indispensable."
— C L I V E C R O O K , associate editor, Financial Times;
senior editor, The Atlantic Monthly
"At last w e have a book that puts the hype of global warming into per
spective. Bjorn Lomborg's eye-opening book examines and meticu
lously documents the effects of climate change, proposes solutions,
and outlines ways we can do things. An extraordinarily timely and
supremely useful book." _ ] Q^ A l S B I T T , a u t h o r o f Megatrends
H N
"Brilliant! A devastating critique of the prevailing climate change
hysteria. This book provides an overwhelming case for reassessing
where exactly our policy priorities should lie if we are genuinely
concerned with world welfare rather than with making noble—if
futile—gestures that, at best, make us feel good but actually do a lot of
harm." —WILFRED BECKERMAN,
professor emeritus of economics, Oxford University
E N V I R O N M E N T A L
S C I E N C E
ISBN 978-0-307-26692-7
A L S O BY B J O R N L O M B O R G
The Skeptical Environmentalist
AS EDITOR
How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place
Global Crises, Global Solutions
Cool It
Cool It
The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide
to Global Warming
Bjorn Lomborg
Alfred A. Knopf New York 2007
THIS IS A BORZOI BOOK
PUBLISHED BY ALFRED A. KNOPF
Copyright © 2007 by Bjorn Lomborg
All rights reserved. Published in the United States
by Alfred A. Knopf, a division of Random House,
Inc., New York and in Canada by Random House of
Canada Limited, Toronto.
www.aaknopf.com
Knopf, Borzoi Books, and the colophon are registered
trademarks of Random House, Inc.
Portions of this work originally appeared in Discover magazine.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Lomborg, Bjorn, [date]
Cool it : the skeptical environmentalist's guide to global
warming / by Bjorn Lomborg.—1st American ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-307-26692-7 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Global warming—Government policy. 2. Climate
change. 3. Environment responsibility. 4. Economic
development—Environmental aspects. 5. Pollution—
Economic aspects. 6. Globalization. I. Title.
QC981.8.G56L657 2007
363.73874—dc22 2007018646
Manufactured in the United States of America
First Edition
For Future Generations
Contents
Preface ix
Polar Bears: Today's Canaries in the Coal Mine? 3
It's Getting Hotter: The Short Story 10
Global Warming: Our Many Worries 53
The Politics of Global Warming 113
Conclusion: Making Our Top Priorities Cool 149
Acknowledgments 165
Notes 167
Literature 203
Index 245
Preface
Global warming has been portrayed recently as the greatest
crisis in the history of civilization. As of this writing, stories
on it occupy the front pages of Time and Newsweek and are
featured prominently in countless media around the world.
In the face of this level of unmitigated despair, it is perhaps
surprising—and will by many be seen as inappropriate—to
write a book that is basically optimistic about humanity's
prospects.
That humanity has caused a substantial rise in atmo
spheric carbon-dioxide levels over the past centuries,
thereby contributing to global warming, is beyond debate.
What is debatable, however, is whether hysteria and head
long spending on extravagant C0 -cutting programs at an
2
unprecedented price is the only possible response. Such a
course is especially debatable in a world where billions of
people live in poverty, where millions die of curable dis
eases, and where these lives could be saved, societies
strengthened, and environments improved at a fraction of
the cost.
Global warming is a complex subject. No one—not Al
Gore, not the world's leading scientists, and most of all not
myself—claims to have all the knowledge and all the solu-
x Preface
tions. But we have to act on the best available data from
both the natural and the social sciences. The title of this
book has two meanings: the first and obvious one is that we
have to set our minds and resources toward the most effec
tive way to tackle long-term global warming. But the sec
ond refers to the current nature of the debate. At present,
anyone who does not support the most radical solutions to
global warming is deemed an outcast and is called irre
sponsible and is seen as possibly an evil puppet of the oil
lobby. It is my contention that this is not the best way to
frame a debate on so crucial an issue. I believe most partici
pants in the debate have good and honorable intentions—
we all want to work toward a better world. But to do so, we
need to cool the rhetoric, allowing us to have a measured
discussion about the best ways forward. Being smart about
our future is the reason we have done so well in the past. We
should not abandon our smarts now.
If we manage to stay cool, we will likely leave the twenty-
first century with societies much stronger, without ram
pant death, suffering, and loss, and with nations much
richer, with unimaginable opportunity in a cleaner, healthy
environment.
Cool It
1
Polar Bears: Today's
Canaries in the Coal Mine?
Countless politicians proclaim that global warming has
emerged as the preeminent issue of our era. The European
Union calls it "one of the most threatening issues that we
are facing today." Former prime minister Tony Blair of the
United Kingdom sees it as "the single most important
issue." German chancellor Angela Merkel has vowed to
make climate change the top priority within both the G8
and the European Union in 2007, and Italy's Romano Prodi
sees climate change as the real threat to global peace. Presi
dential contenders from John McCain to Hillary Clinton
express real concern over the issue. Several coalitions of
states have set up regional climate-change initiatives, and
in California Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
has helped push through legislation saying that global
warming should be a top priority for the state. And of
course, Al Gore has presented this message urgently in his
lectures as well as in the book and Oscar-winning movie An
Inconvenient Truth.
In March 2007, while I waited to give evidence to a con-
4 BJORN LOMBORG
gressional hearing on climate change, I watched Gore put
his case to the politicians. It was obvious to me that Gore is
sincerely worried about the world's future. And he's not
alone in worrying. A raft of book titles warn that we've
reached a Boiling Point and will experience a Climate
Crash. One is even telling us we will be the Last Generation
because "nature will take her revenge for climate change."
Pundits aiming to surpass one another even suggest that we
face medieval-style impoverishment and societal collapse
in just forty years if we don't make massive and draconian
changes to the way we live.
Likewise, the media pound us with increasingly dramatic
stories of our ever worsening climate. In 2006, Time did a
special report on global warming, with the cover spelling
out the scare story with repetitive austerity: "Be worried. Be
very worried." The magazine told us that the climate is
crashing, affecting us both globally by playing havoc with
the biosphere and individually through such health effects
as heatstrokes, asthma, and infectious diseases. The heart
breaking image on the cover was of a lone polar bear on a
melting ice floe, searching in vain for the next piece of ice to
jump to. Time told us that due to global warming bears "are
starting to turn up drowned" and that at some point they
will become extinct.
Padding across the ice, polar bears are beautiful animals.
To Greenland—part of my own nation, Denmark—they are
a symbol of pride. The loss of this animal would be a
tragedy. But the real story of the polar bear is instructive. In
many ways, this tale encapsulates the broader problem
with the climate-change concern: once you look closely at
the supporting data, the narrative falls apart.
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