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Garvey, Paul R., date.

Analytical methods for risk management : a systems engineering perspective /
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Dedication

To my wife Maura and daughters Kirsten and Alana.

I also dedicate this book to the memory of my daughter
Katrina and my parents Eva and Ralph.
Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam

vii
Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv

1 Engineering Risk Management

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.2 Engineering Risk Management Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.3 Overview of Process and Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1.4 New Perspectives on Engineering Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Questions and Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2 Elements of Probability Theory

2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2.2 Interpretations and Axioms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2.4 Applications to Engineering Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

2.4.1 Probability Inference — An Application of Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . 28

2.4.2 Writing a Risk Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Questions and Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

ix
x Contents

3 Elements of Decision Analysis

3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

3.2 The Value Function. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39

3.3 Risk and Utility Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

3.4 Applications to Engineering Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Questions and Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

4 Analytical Topics in Engineering Risk Management

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

4.2 Risk Identification and Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

4.3 Risk Analysis and Risk Prioritization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

4.3.1 Ordinal Approaches and the Borda Algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

4.3.2 A Value Function Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

4.3.3 Variations on the Additive Value Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

4.3.4 Incorporating Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

4.4 Risk Management and Progress Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

4.4.1 Risk Handling Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

4.4.2 Monitoring Progress — A Performance Index Measure . . . . . . 167

4.4.3 Allocating Resources — A Simple Knapsack Model . . . . . . . . 176

4.5 Measuring Technical Performance Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

4.5.1 A Technical Performance Risk Index Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

4.5.2 An Approach for Systems-of-Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

 Contents xi

4.6 Risk Management for Engineering Enterprise Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

4.6.1 The Enterprise Problem Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

4.6.2 Enterprise Risk Management:

A Capabilities-Based Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

4.6.3 The “Cutting Edge” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

Questions and Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Appendix A A Geometric Approach for Ranking Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

Appendix B Success Factors in Engineering Risk Management . . . . . 251

Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Preface

Risk is a driving consideration in decisions that determine how engineering sys-

tems are developed, produced, and sustained. Critical to these decisions is an
understanding of risk and how it affects the engineering of systems. The process
of identifying, measuring, and managing risk is known as risk management. Ap-
plied early, risk management can expose potentially crippling areas of risk in the
engineering of systems. This provides management time to define and implement
corrective strategies. Moreover, risk management can bring realism to technical
and managerial decisions that define a system’s overall engineering strategy.

Engineering today’s systems is sophisticated and complex. Increasingly, systems

are being engineered by bringing together many separate systems that, as a whole,
provide an overall capability otherwise not possible. Many systems no longer
physically exist within clearly defined boundaries; rather, systems are more and
more geographically and spatially distributed and interconnected through a rich
and sophisticated set of networks and communications technologies.

These large-scale, complex, systems-of-systems operate to satisfy a compara-

tively large set of users, stakeholders, or communities of interest. It is no longer
enough to find just technology solutions to the engineering of these systems. Such
solutions must be adaptable to changes in the enterprise, balanced with respect
to expected performance, and risk managed, while also considering the social,
political, and economic environments within which the system will operate and
change over time.

Successfully engineering today’s systems requires deliberate and continuous

attention to the management of risk. Managing risk is an activity designed to
improve the chance that these systems will be completed on time, within cost,
and meet performance and capability objectives.

This book presents an introduction to processes and analytical practices in the

management of risk as it arises in the engineering of systems. Traditional systems,
systems-of-systems, and enterprise systems are considered. These practices have

xiii
xiv Preface

evolved from a variety of systems engineering projects and enterprise engineering

initiatives. Numerous examples are presented to illustrate how these principles and
practices have been applied on actual engineering system projects and enterprise
modernization programs.

A large body of literature exists on this subject. Published material appears in

numerous industry and government technical reports, symposia proceedings, and
professional society publications. Despite this, engineering managers need to
properly understand this literature, learn which processes and analytical tech-
niques are valid, and know how they are best applied in their specific system
environments. This book addresses these needs. It provides managers and sys-
tems engineers a guide through the foundation processes, analytical principles,
and implementation practices of engineering risk management.

This book is appropriate for upper-level undergraduate or graduate students in

systems engineering, program management, or engineering management courses
of study. As a text, it could be used for a course or elective on engineering
risk management. Readers should have a background in project management
and systems engineering principles. Additionally, a mathematical background
in differential and integral calculus is recommended. Important concepts from
probability theory and elementary decision theory, as they apply to engineering
risk management, are developed as needed. The book contains 60 exercises to
further a reader’s understanding of risk management theory and practice.

Chapter 1 presents an introduction to engineering risk management. This chapter

discusses the nature of risk and uncertainty and how these considerations arise
in the engineering of systems. The objectives of engineering risk management
are described along with an overview of modern processes and practices. Last,
new perspectives on managing risk in the engineering of systems-of-systems and
enterprise systems are discussed.

Chapter 2 presents elements of probability theory — a topic foundational to

understanding the nature of risk and ways to measure its chance of occurrence.
Topics include the fundamental axioms and properties of probability. Basic con-
cepts are emphasized along with how they apply to the analysis of risk in an
engineering systems context.

Chapter 3 offers an introduction to decision analysis — a subject that owns

much of its modern theoretical basis in the classic text Decisions With Multiple
Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs by R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa.
 Preface xv

In Chapter 3, elements of preference theory and multiattribute value and utility

function theory are explained. Concepts of value, utility, and risk functions are
introduced, along with how they apply to measuring and managing risk in the
engineering of systems.

Chapter 4 presents a series of essays on selected analytical topics that arise in

engineering risk management. These topics were chosen due to the frequency
with which they occur in practice and because they constitute the basics of any
sound risk management process.

Topics in Chapter 4 include how to identify, write, and represent risks; methods to
rank-order or prioritize risks in terms of their potential impacts to an engineering
system project; and how to monitor progress in managing or mitigating a risk’s
potential adverse effects. In addition, two current and applied topics in engineering
risk management are discussed.

The first topic is technical performance measures and how they can be used
to monitor and track an engineering system’s overall performance risk. For a
system, these measures individually generate useful data; however, little has been
developed in the engineering management community on how to integrate them
into meaningful measures of performance risk — measures that can be readily
tracked over time.

The second topic concludes the chapter with a discussion on risk management in
the context of engineering enterprise systems. This is presented from a capability
portfolio view. Applying, adapting, or defining risk management principles in an
enterprise-wide problem space is truly the “cutting edge” of current practice.

The numerical precision shown in some of the book’s examples, computations,

and case discussions is intended only for illustrative and pedagogical purposes.
In practice, analysts and engineers must always choose the level of precision
appropriate to the nature of the problem being addressed. In systems engineering
risk management, that seldom exceeds a single decimal point.

The book concludes with two appendixes. Appendix A presents a geometric

approach for ranking risks. Appendix B presents success factors in systems en-
gineering risk management. They come from my experience and those of my
colleagues in industry, government, and academe.
Acknowledgments

I gratefully acknowledge a number of distinguished professors, engineers, and

scientists who contributed to this book. Their insights have been instrumental in
bringing about this work.

Academia

Tyson R. Browning, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Enterprise Operations, De-

partment of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management, Neeley School
of Business, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, Texas.

L. Robin Keller, Ph.D., Professor, Operations and Decision Technologies, The

Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California;
and Past-President, 2000–2002, Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for
Operations Research and Management Sciences (INFORMS).

Craig W. Kirkwood, Ph.D., Professor, Chair, Department of Supply Chain

Management, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona; and President, 2006–
2008, Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS; and 2007 Ramsey medalist.

Jay Simon, Doctoral Student, Operations and Decision Technologies, The Paul
Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California.

K. Paul Yoon, Ph.D., Professor, Chairperson, Information Systems & Decision

Sciences, Fairleigh Dickinson University, Teaneck, New Jersey. For correspon-
dence with the author on the TOPSIS method, developed in 1981 with Ching-Lai
Hwang. The TOPSIS method is summarized in Appendix A.

The MITRE Corporation

Bruce W. Lamar, Ph.D., created the Max Average Rule presented in Chapter 4.

xvii
xviii Acknowledgments

Charlene J. McMahon and Robert S. Henry, whose experience and insights into
success factors for engineering risk management are summarized in Appendix B.

Richard A. Moynihan, Ph.D., created the Frequency Count Approach presented

in Chapter 4.

George Rebovich, Jr., authored the paper “Enterprise Systems Engineering The-
ory and Practice, Volume 2: Systems Thinking for the Enterprise: New and Emerg-
ing Perspectives,” MITRE Paper MP 050000043, November 2005. Permission
was granted to excerpt portions of this paper for Chapter 4.

Brian E. White, Ph.D., authored the paper “Fostering Intra-Organizational Com-

munication of Enterprise Systems Engineering Practices,” October 2006. Permis-
sion was granted to excerpt portions of this paper for Chapter 4.

Finally, I appreciate the staff at Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, Taylor & Francis
Group, for their diligence, professionalism, and enthusiasm. I am grateful to David
Grubbs, acquisition editor, and the production team for their efforts in bringing
about this work.
Paul R. Garvey
Duxbury, Massachusetts
Chapter 1
Engineering Risk Management

1.1 Introduction
This chapter presents an introduction to engineering risk management. The nature
of risk and uncertainty is discussed and how these considerations arise in the engi-
neering of systems. The objectives of engineering risk management are described
along with an overview of modern processes and practices. Last, new perspec-
tives on managing risk in the engineering of systems-of-systems and enterprise
systems are discussed.

Mentioned in the book’s preface, engineering today’s systems is sophisticated

and complex. Increasingly, systems are being engineered by bringing together
many separate systems that, as a whole, provide a capability otherwise not possi-
ble. Many systems no longer physically exist within clearly defined boundaries;
rather, systems are more and more geographically and spatially distributed and
interconnected through a rich and sophisticated set of networks and communica-
tions technologies.

These large-scale complex systems operate to satisfy a comparatively large set of

users, stakeholders, or communities of interest. It is no longer enough to find just
technology solutions to the engineering of these systems. Today’s solutions must
be adaptable to change, balanced with respect to expected performance, and risk
managed while also considering the social, political, and economic environments
within which the system will operate and evolve over time.

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