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Cyber Threat Intelligence
Cyber Threat Intelligence
Martin Lee
Oxford, UK
Copyright © 2023 by John Wiley & Sons Inc. All rights reserved.
Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley
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accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied
warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created
or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies
contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Contents
Preface xi
About the Author xiii
Abbreviations xv
Endorsements for Martin Lee’s Book xix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Definitions 1
1.1.1 Intelligence 2
1.1.2 Cyber Threat 3
1.1.3 Cyber Threat Intelligence 4
1.2 History of Threat Intelligence 5
1.2.1 Antiquity 5
1.2.2 Ancient Rome 7
1.2.3 Medieval and Renaissance Age 8
1.2.4 Industrial Age 10
1.2.5 World War I 11
1.2.6 World War II 13
1.2.7 Post War Intelligence 14
1.2.8 Cyber Threat Intelligence 15
1.2.9 Emergence of Private Sector Intelligence Sharing 19
1.3 Utility of Threat Intelligence 21
1.3.1 Developing Cyber Threat Intelligence 23
Summary 24
References 24
2 Threat Environment 31
2.1 Threat 31
2.1.1 Threat Classification 33
2.2 Risk and Vulnerability 35
2.2.1 Human Vulnerabilities 38
vi Contents
3 Applying Intelligence 75
3.1 Planning Intelligence Gathering 75
3.1.1 The Intelligence Programme 77
3.1.2 Principles of Intelligence 78
3.1.3 Intelligence Metrics 81
3.2 The Intelligence Cycle 82
3.2.1 Planning, Requirements, and Direction 83
3.2.2 Collection 84
3.2.3 Analysis and Processing 84
3.2.4 Production 85
3.2.5 Dissemination 85
3.2.6 Review 85
3.3 Situational Awareness 86
3.3.1 Example – 2013 Target Breach 88
3.4 Goal Oriented Security and Threat Modelling 89
Contents vii
6 Attribution 155
6.1 Holding Perpetrators to Account 155
6.1.1 Punishment 156
6.1.2 Legal Frameworks 156
6.1.3 Cyber Crime Legislation 157
6.1.4 International Law 158
6.1.5 Crime and Punishment 158
6.2 Standards of Proof 158
6.2.1 Forensic Evidence 159
6.3 Mechanisms of Attribution 160
6.3.1 Attack Attributes 161
6.3.1.1 Attacker TTPs 161
6.3.1.2 Example – HAFNIUM 162
6.3.1.3 Attacker Infrastructure 162
6.3.1.4 Victimology 163
6.3.1.5 Malicious Code 163
6.3.2 Asserting Attribution 165
6.4 Anti-Attribution Techniques 166
6.4.1 Infrastructure 166
6.4.2 Malicious Tools 166
6.4.3 False Attribution 167
Contents ix
7 Professionalism 175
7.1 Notions of Professionalism 176
7.1.1 Professional Ethics 177
7.2 Developing a New Profession 178
7.2.1 Professional Education 178
7.2.2 Professional Behaviour and Ethics 179
7.2.2.1 Professionalism in Medicine 179
7.2.2.2 Professionalism in Accountancy 181
7.2.2.3 Professionalism in Engineering 183
7.2.3 Certifications and Codes of Ethics 186
7.3 Behaving Ethically 188
7.3.1 The Five Philosophical Approaches 188
7.3.2 The Josephson Model 189
7.3.3 PMI Ethical Decision Making Framework 190
7.4 Legal and Ethical Environment 191
7.4.1 Planning 192
7.4.1.1 Responsible Vulnerability Disclosure 193
7.4.1.2 Vulnerability Hoarding 194
7.4.2 Collection, Analysis, and Processing 194
7.4.2.1 PRISM Programme 195
7.4.2.2 Open and Closed Doors 196
7.4.3 Dissemination 196
7.4.3.1 Doxxing 197
7.5 Managing the Unexpected 198
7.6 Continuous Improvement 199
Summary 199
References 200
Index 277
xi
Preface
Cyber Threat Intelligence describes the intelligence techniques and models used in
cyber threat intelligence. It provides a survey of ideas, views, and concepts, rather
than offering a hands-on practical guide. It is intended for anyone who wishes to
learn more about the domain, possibly because they wish to develop a career in
intelligence, and as a reference for those already working in the area.
The origins of this book lie in an awkward dinner conversation. I was on one
side of the table, a software engineer who had fallen into the domain of cyber
security more or less by accident. On the other was a uniformed senior military
intelligence officer. A shared professional interest in cyber threat intelligence led
to our being invited to the same event.
Keen to learn how better to analyse the attacks that I was encountering, I tried
to learn all that I could about intelligence techniques from my neighbour. Naively,
I had hoped that there might be a text book that set out the approaches that I could
try to apply to identify attackers. At the very least, I was certain that there must be
conceptual models, which I could adapt from the intelligence world to make
better use of my data.
Instead, I discovered that military intelligence officers do not impart their
knowledge to civilians easily, nor do they particularly appreciate lengthy ques-
tioning about the details of their profession. My conclusion was that I would have
to develop my own body of knowledge regarding intelligence techniques and
learn how to apply these to the emerging issue of cyber security.
This book is the result of that dinner. It is the book that I had hoped to discover
when I started working in the nascent domain of cyber threat intelligence. It is the
book that outlines the concepts and theories, which serve as the foundation of
sound professional practice and the development of new practical applications.
Cyber threat intelligence is so much more than feeds of technical indicators relat-
ing to current cyber attacks. It is a discipline that is distinct from forensic cyber
analysis, or malware analysis, seeking not necessarily to supply raw information
detailing attacks, but to enrich such information to provide understanding.
xii Preface
Many working in the domain of cyber threat intelligence have been formally
trained in intelligence through having followed careers in the military or law
enforcement. However, professional obligations to protect sensitive operational
details mean that it is often difficult to share knowledge and competences devel-
oped over long careers.
As a civilian working in the private sector, I have learned what I can about tra-
ditional threat intelligence theories and techniques from declassified or open-
source material under the mentorship of formally trained senior colleagues. The
nascent domain of cyber security has also had to develop its own specialised tech-
niques and vocabulary derived from a large community of people working
together to solve new problems.
This book is a collection of the techniques and theories that underpin the prac-
tice of cyber threat intelligence. The domain continues to evolve rapidly. The day-
to-day tools and analyses performed by threat intelligence teams may change
frequently, but the theory and frameworks in which these activities take place are
well developed. It is these mature, evolved disciplines that this book seeks to
describe.
This book approaches cyber threat intelligence from a perspective that is west-
ern and predominantly that of NATO and EU countries. Although the book is not
partisan in nature, the reader should be aware that there are other perspectives.
I am indebted to a long line of people with whom I have worked over the years,
who have helped me discover resources and techniques, and who have given me
support and encouragement. This book has benefitted from the wisdom and over-
sight of Dr. Herb Mattord, Dr. Jonathan Lusthaus, Vanja Svajcer, Paul King,
Wendy Nather, Don Taggart, and Natasha King who helped in the preparation of
the manuscript.
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