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Market Indicators
 Also available from
BLOOMBERG PRESS

The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators

Updated and Expanded Edition
by Richard Yamarone

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New Thinking from the World’s Top Minds
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Market Indicators
The Best-Kept Secret to More Effective
Trading and Investing

Richard Sipley

B LOOMBERG P RESS
N EW Y ORK
© 2009 by Richard Sipley. All rights reserved. Protected under the Berne Convention. Printed in
the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher except in the case
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Permissions Department, Bloomberg Press, 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 or send
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KET ESSENTIALS, Bloomberg Markets, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PRESS,
BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG RADIO, BLOOMBERG TELEVISION,
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This publication contains the author’s opinions, who takes sole responsibility for them, and is
designed to provide accurate and authoritative information. It is sold with the understanding that
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ment-planning, or other professional advice. The reader should seek the services of a qualified
professional for such advice; the author, publisher, and Bloomberg L.P. cannot be held responsible
for any loss incurred as a result of specific investments or planning decisions made by the reader.

First edition published 2009

1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Sipley, Richard.
Market indicators : the best-kept secret to more effective trading and investing / Richard Sipley.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: “A proprietary trader provides an overview of the most popular market metrics devel­
oped and used by professionals. The author synthesizes these market signals and provides a run­
ning commentary on why they work, and how to use them to trade better and more
profitably”--Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-1-57660-331-4 (alk. paper)
1. Investment analysis. 2. Investments. 3. Stock price forecasting. 4. Speculation.
I. Title.
HG4529.S52 2009
332.63’2042--dc22
2009033055
 Contents

Acknowledgments vii
Introduction ix

Part I Measuring Investor Actions 1

1 Clues from the Options Market 3
2 Big Money on the Move 21
3 Fast Money on the Move 33
4 Follow the Money: Cash, Debt, and Shorts 47
5 Too Far, Too Fast 63
6 Relative Value 77

Part II Considering the Human Element 93

7 Sentiment Surveys 95
8 Analyzing the Analysts 107
9 Reporting the Financial News, Gauging the
Investor’s Psyche 121
10 Sitting and Watching 131

Part III Following the Smart Money 145

11 The Insiders 147
12 Looking to the Futures 159
13 Giving Credit to the Bond Market 173
14 Money In, Money Out (IPOs, Secondaries,
Mergers, Buybacks, and Dividends) 189
15 Tracking the Trailblazers 203

Conclusion 213
Notes 217
Index 227
 Acknowledgments

Now for the page that’s least likely to be read in any book, and yet
most important to its author. After this project, I promise that I will
actually read other writers’ tributes.
Thanks to all the bloggers who share their ideas, insights, and
opinions. They have helped me shape my own. Thanks also to all
the writers and editors who find good stories and angles and go to
the trouble of vigorously fact-checking their material.
Thank you to my colleagues at Boston Private Bank for camara­
derie and intellectual debate. And thank you to my clients for the
trust they place in me and for our conversations, which remind me
of the world beyond my computer screen.
My sincere appreciation to Stephen Isaacs, Ingrid Case, and the
rest of the Bloomberg production crew for giving me the opportu­
nity to put my thoughts to paper and for then seeing the project to
completion.
My love and gratitude to my parents for their guidance and
encouragement through the years.
And finally, my love and thanks to my wife, Stephanie and my
children Jack, Ava, and Lila. Yes, the book is done. No, the Cubs
haven’t won the World Series. We moved to Boston to save you
from your father’s fate.

vii
 Introduction

Beware of geeks bearing formulas.

—WARREN BUFFETT, in his 2008 annual letter to shareholders

SOME PEOPLE SUGGEST that investing is a form of gambling, complain­

ing that they can do as well playing the Pick-3 lotto or betting on
roulette. Nothing could be further from the truth. In Las Vegas, the
house always has the edge. In the stock market, you can have the
edge, if you wait until conditions are right.
Only poker, in which individuals compete to outwit each other,
really compares to investing. At its most basic, poker is about making
decisions based on imperfect and incomplete information. Players
each hold a few cards that only they can see. Every other player must
make educated guesses about who holds what. No one knows which
card will be dealt next.
An ability to read other players is the skill that sets master poker
players apart. The best poker players notice that the man with the
loud shirt plays conservatively; if he bets aggressively, it’s likely he
has a really good hand. They see that the player in the corner plays
with her chips when she’s bluffing. In poker, these are known as
tells, signals that give observant competitors slightly better odds
and help them win more often over the course of many games.
That’s the goal of this book. The following pages will describe a
variety of signs, or tells, that many market professionals consider.
These signs don’t replace good, old-fashioned homework—but they
will enhance your ability to make better stock decisions over time.

You can observe a lot by just watching. —YOGI BERRA

If you approach the market solely by doing fundamental research,

this book probably won’t be of much interest. If you have found your
ix
x Introduction

investing niche by concentrating only on technical analysis, this

book is not for you. But if you agree that you can learn a lot just by
looking around, then you’ll likely find some useful nuggets here.
Economist John Maynard Keynes has compared the stock mar­
ket to a beauty contest, but with a twist. Rather than voting for the
prettiest girl, the goal is to pick the contestant the judges believe is
prettiest. Keynes, who was a very successful stock investor in his
own right, read newspapers to learn what others were reading and
thinking. He believed that market success requires looking around
and observing how other market participants feel and act.
This insight is not unique to Keynes. Professional investors of
every era have developed indicators and other rules of thumb that
help them navigate naturally chaotic markets. You’ll see some of
these indicators when excessive fear or greed enters the market­
place. Others arise when well-informed insiders tip their hands and
hint at their views of the future. These signals are largely numerical,
can be charted, and lend themselves to deep study.
The best and brightest are constantly trying to develop more
complex and sophisticated indicators. Careers can be focused on
just one signal. Sometimes, however, simple is best. Many of the
most reliable indicators have been around for many years, and have
stood the test of time. In this book, we’ll cover a wide range of indi­
cators, offering the reader a handbook of market “tells.”

The Outline
I understand now that the financial future is a closed book, that
prophecy is usually profitless, and that the best an investor can gen­
erally hope to do is identify extremes of sentiment and valuation as
they periodically present themselves.
—JAMES GRANT, in his final Forbes column, February 25, 2008

At its core, of course, the future is unknowable. But as long-time market

commentator Jim Grant said, investors can better their odds by identi­
fying extremes of sentiment in groups of real people with real foibles
and emotions, who buy and sell stocks in the world markets every day.
There are three sets of indicators that may signal opportunity. We
will first focus on data that reveals what market participants are doing.
Normally, there is an ebb and flow in the price and volume of specific
securities, and in the market as a whole. A significant, measurable
 Introduction xi

activity spike may suggest market panic or euphoria and, therefore,

potential opportunity.
The second section will explore the ways investors, as a group,
signal their areas of focus, feelings, and general outlook. At market
tops and bottoms, surveys and media coverage reflect investor senti­
ment. When the media universally portray an issue in a certain way,
or when commentators portray the (unknowable) future as clear, it
suggests that emotion has trumped rational analysis—and that secu­
rities are incorrectly priced as a result.
The third and final section will explore the dynamic between
“smart money” and “dumb money.” Because of their roles, some peo­
ple know more than others about specific market sectors. A global
grain conglomerate executive knows more about corn crops than
does a dentist, for instance. Most of the time, insiders and the gen­
eral public take similar actions. When their opinions diverge, how­
ever, it’s wise to follow the insiders. We’ll discuss how to find and
interpret that moment of divergence.

A Few Warnings
Take what you can use and let the rest go by.
—KEN KESEY

These indicators don’t replace economic analysis, or save you the

trouble of reading a company’s financial statements. In fact, they
work best for investors who already endeavor to understand compa­
nies, sectors, markets, and their real-world contexts. These indicators
are a supplement to the hard work of knowing the stocks you own.
Many of these indicators have been tested for their predictive
value, and all fall short in some way. No single or combined indica­
tor will give you a foolproof route to riches.
Instead, I emphasize the importance of considering a broad cross-
section of indicators and information to get a sense of what market
signals might mean, deciding for yourself how much weight to give
any single factor. Take what you can use and let the rest go by.

About Me
Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge to Truth and
Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.
—ALBERT EINSTEIN
xii Introduction

No book can escape its author’s natural leanings. I graduated with

degrees in finance and computer science from Miami University in
Oxford, Ohio, in 1988, received my MBA at Kellogg School of
Management at Northwestern University in 1997, and became a
CFA charter holder in 1998.
In nearly fifteen years, I’ve held positions for ten seconds (once
or twice) and ten years (once or twice). I’ve done paired spreads,
warrant spreads, preferred spreads, merger arbitrage, straight longs,
and unhedged shorts. I’ve ridden a stock from fifty cents to sixty dol­
lars and from five dollars to zero. I’ve sat on cash while everyone
around me was minting money. I’ve gotten into a cab to see a former
coworker, who was minting money a year earlier, sitting in the driv­
er’s seat.
I’m currently a portfolio manager at Boston Private Bank, where
my colleagues and I work with both individual and institutional
investors, doing our best to help clients navigate the market.
I’ve looked at most every indicator out there, considered every
nuance I could find, but I also recognize the karmic danger of por­
traying myself as an expert. I urge you to consider other voices and
opinions. Many of the charts in this book come from people who
have made interpreting market signals their life’s labor. In many
ways, this book is an introduction to their work.
Entrepreneur and now-billionaire Mark Cuban wrote that,
while he was starting out, he slept on the floor of a shared apartment
and ate mustard and ketchup sandwiches. But he figured the more
he learned, the better chance he had of beating the competition.
Cuban has said that just one good idea from a three-dollar magazine
or a twenty-dollar book is a bargain. I hope you find at least one
actionable indicator or intriguing concept in the pages that follow.
And that you’re not eating mustard and ketchup sandwiches.
Thanks for reading.
 P a r t
I
Measuring
Investor Actions
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who
has the best information.
—BENJAMIN DISRAELI

MONEY DOESN’T FLOW—it sloshes. Like water in an overfull bathtub

money moves in waves, as investors process information and balance
the competing desires to grow wealth and protect capital. Traders
use connections and quick thinking to react to new information,
deciding how it may (or may not) affect capital returns. Thoughtful
investors try to proactively position portfolios, rather than reacting
impulsively to each new data point and market development.
As it sloshes, money creates a variety of measurable results,
which signal how investors currently view risk and where they are
placing bets. This first section reviews a variety of real-time indi­
cators that point to capital allocation and reveal traders’ general
levels of risk tolerance. Our first stop: the options market.

1
 C h a p t e r
1
Clues from the
Options Market

Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.

—JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES

IT CAN BE TOUGH ENOUGH to do well in the stock market. The

options market, with its additional layers of complexity, might
appear to be an even more challenging place to gain an advantage.
Some of the smartest, quickest pros operate in the options market
where, like traditional chess grand masters, they are slowly being
outsmarted by computer algorithms. But there’s no need to battle
the options pros or the computers to glean useful information from
the options market.

The Basics
At its most basic, an option is simple. It’s the right to buy (call) or
sell (put) a stock at a stated price (strike) until a certain point in
time (expiration date). It’s not hard to understand, but it is hard to
correctly value.
Though the mathematical specifics are beyond the scope of this
book, traders use a few pieces of information to calculate an option’s
price. These include the risk-free cost of money (due to the underly­
ing loan that’s typically present), the stock price, the option’s strike
price, and the amount of time left on the option. These are all
known numbers. An unknown variable, called implied volatility,
ties these known numbers together.
3
4 Measuring Investor Actions

An option’s implied volatility measures how much the market

thinks a stock’s value will change—in either direction—in the
future. A boring company often has an established business base
that probably won’t change much. An electric utility, for instance,
has locked-in customers who provide a stable demand for product,
although a state agency usually limits what the utility can charge.
Relatively speaking, a utility’s future cash stream is predictable and
will probably create a steady price for that utility’s stock, and there­
fore a relatively low implied volatility. Traders will not pay a high
price for the right to buy the stock at a much higher level—a right
known as a call—because traders think the stock has only a small
chance of achieving that higher level.
On the other hand, a technology stock such as Google has a
much higher implied volatility. After all, the stock’s value has
changed significantly in the past, and Google’s future business and
cash flow is more unpredictable than that of a utility. A call option—a
bet that the stock will go up—on Google, therefore, is more expen­
sive than a call option on Consolidated Edison.
For ease of use across option durations, sources state implied
volatility in annualized terms. Note that implied volatility does not
imply direction; it merely indicates the perceived magnitude of
future price changes, both up and down.

What is the Volatility Index?

There is no need to independently calculate implied volatility. The
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced the Volatil­
ity Index (VIX) in 1993, and it became a popular media topic—
albeit, one commentators often discuss oversimplistically. The VIX
considers stocks traded on the S&P 500 Index and continuously
calculates their implied volatility on a constant, forward-looking
30-day basis. In less technical language, the VIX measures the mar­
ket’s price movement expectations over the next thirty days on the
S&P 500. See more detail on the history of the VIX and its underly­
ing calculations, as well as the current VIX and associated values, at
the CBOE Web site (www.cboe.com).

WHY INVESTORS AND TRADERS LOOK AT THE VIX

The market essentially serves as a discounting mechanism for inves­
tors’ collective best guess of what the future holds. When investors
 Clues from the Options Market 5

disagree more than usual over the path of things to come, prices
often bounce around as the market seeks equilibrium. At these
moments, the VIX runs at relatively higher levels.
The VIX is also known as the investor fear index, because
upward spikes are associated with bouts of market turmoil and
uncertainty. Market participants are generally reluctant to put hard-
earned cash to work in the market when the future seems murky and
unsettled. Other investors may see reluctance as an overreaction to
current news events and, therefore, as a buying opportunity.
At relatively low levels, the VIX suggests less disagreement over
general stock prices. At these times, the VIX could be called the
complacency index. Sustained low VIX levels resemble a quiet and
placid lake, smooth as glass. Just a pebble can cause a disturbance. And
so it is with the market. If investors expect a quiet market, any news
event might cause a stir. Some investors therefore see low VIX levels
as an opportunity to sell some stock and reduce market exposure.

STUDYING THE VIX

The VIX is based on data and has been around for many years, so it
lends itself to academic study. Many academics are fascinated with
the VIX, because it seems to dispel the notion of market efficiency.
In their December 2006 paper “Implied Volatility and Future
Portfolio Returns,” Prithviraj Banerjee, James S. Doran, and David R.
Peterson came to the following conclusions:

• They confirmed that the VIX had a statistically valid track record
of forecasting stock market returns over one- and two-month
time periods.
• This predictive ability was stronger for highly volatile stocks than
for less volatile stocks. The forecasting effect was similar across
stock type (growth and value) and company size (large and small).
• The authors were careful to conclude that the VIX was predic­
tive, but did not state that VIX-based trading or investing would
lead to market-beating returns.

Another study looked at using the VIX to beat the market. In

their November 2007 paper “Can the VIX Signal Market’s Direc­
tion? An Asymmetric Dynamic Strategy,” Alessandro Cipollini and
Antonio Manzini looked for a VIX strategy that beat a buy-and-hold
6 Measuring Investor Actions

approach. They stayed long to the market only when the VIX was at
a relative high, and kept their account in cash at other times. They
derived relative VIX levels by 1) finding high and low VIX values for
a rolling twenty-four-month period, 2) dividing that range into
twenty-two equal-value “buckets,” and 3) finding the forward three-
month market returns for each day, and examining which bucket the
VIX was in for each. They found that

• The VIX signals market direction, but is much more useful at

high relative levels. Spikes are an especially reliable signal of
market direction.
• Low VIX levels have much less predictive ability.
• The VIX had significant skews at its tails. The VIX spent only
0.82 percent of the study period (January 2, 1992 to December
31, 2004) in the highest VIX bucket, and 12.4 percent in the
lowest, consistent with the argument that the VIX is better at
finding market bottoms than market tops.
• Their constructed model beat a standard buy-and-hold model. The
authors felt results would have been even better if the model had
allowed more aggressive trading at the highest VIX readings.

A note from market research firm Bespoke Investment Group

confirmed the finding that the VIX is more predictive at its highest
values than at its lowest. The note discussed insights gathered from
a study of more than thirty short-term VIX declines of more than
25 percent between January 1990 and April 2008. The authors con­
cluded that “while sharp increases in the index have historically
been a positive for the short-term performance of the market, sharp
declines in the index do not necessarily have the opposite effect of
negative short-term returns.”

USING THE VIX

These and other studies demonstrate that, as a predictor, the VIX
is most accurate when it spikes from a relatively high level. This
phenomenon can be used to time the market to some degree,
particularly in short-term trading strategies, as the VIX considers
only the next thirty days. Traders and portfolio managers use the
VIX in different ways, with varying levels of conviction, as they
seek out approaches that fit their needs and time frames.
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