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CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THE ANTHROPOCENE
CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THE ANTHROPOCENE

KIERAN D. O’HARA
University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, United States
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States

Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any


means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information
storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on
how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies
and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the
Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.

This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright
by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional
practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described
herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety
and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or
editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a
matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any
methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

ISBN: 978-0-12-820308-8

For Information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at


https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Candice Janco


Acquisitions Editor: Marisa LaFleur
Editorial Project Manager: Jose Paolo Valeroso
Production Project Manager: Bharatwaj Varatharajan
Cover Designer: Christian J. Bilbow

Typeset by Aptara, New Delhi, India


CONTENTS

Preface ix

PART I 1
1 Our globally changing climate 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Global temperature 4
1.3 Land surface temperature 5
1.4 Sea surface temperature 6
1.5 Global surface temperature 7
1.6 Trends in global temperatures 7
1.7 Trends in global precipitation 8
1.8 Extreme weather events 9
1.9 Changes in the cryosphere 10
1.10 Changes in sea level 14
1.11 Changes in land processes 14
References 16

2 Physical drivers of climate change 19


2.1 The global radiation budget 19
2.2 The greenhouse effect 19
2.3 Radiation forcing 22
2.4 Global warming potential 24
2.5 Greenhouse gases 25
2.6 Aerosols 29
2.7 Climate response 30
2.8 Feedbacks 32
2.9 Albedo feedbacks 34
2.10 Ocean chemistry, ecosystems, and circulation 35
2.11 Permafrost 38
References 38

3 Evaluation of climate model performance 41


3.1 Introduction 41
3.2 Model types 42
3.3 Model improvements 43

v
vi Contents

3.4 Model evaluation 44


3.5 Ensemble approach to evaluation 45
3.6 Model intercomparisons 45
3.7 Results 46
3.8 The ocean 48
3.9 Carbon cycle 52
3.10 The Paris Accords 53
3.11 Representative climate pathways 53
3.12 Near-term climate projections 54
3.13 Long-term projections 57
References 60

4 Paleoclimates 63
4.1 Introduction 63
4.2 Preindustrial external radiative forcings 65
4.3 High CO2 worlds 67
4.4 Pleistocene glacial-interglacial dynamics 69
4.5 The CLIMAP Project 71
4.6 Holocene climate 73
References 76

PART II 79
5 Climate impacts: US sectors and regions 81
5.1 Introduction 81
5.2 Key sectors 81
5.3 Regional climate impacts 95
References 101

6 Adaptation 105
6.1 Introduction 105
References 121

7 Mitigation 123
7.1 Introduction 123
7.2 GHG emission trends 125
7.3 Emission drivers 127
7.4 Carbon intensity of energy 129
7.5 Sectors 130
7.6 Buildings 136
Contents vii

7.7 Shared socioeconomic pathways – quantifying the paths 137


7.8 Comparison of SSP1 and SSP3 138
7.9 SSP5. Fossil fuel development 139
References 140

PART III 143


o o
8 1.5 C versus 2.0 C warming 145
8.1 Introduction 145
8.2 1.5o C and 2.0o C warming 147
8.3 Natural systems 149
8.4 Human systems 153
References 155

9 Getting to net zero by 2050 157


9.1 Introduction 157
9.2 The current situation (2021) 158
9.3 Road to net-zero emissions 2050 160
9.4 Population and GDP 161
9.5 Energy and CO2 prices 161
9.6 CO2 emissions 162
9.7 Total energy supply 162
9.8 Economic sectors 163
9.9 Conclusions 164
References 164

10 Climate engineering 167


10.1 Introduction 167
10.2 Solar radiation management 168
10.3 Aerosol injection into the stratosphere 169
10.4 Albedo enhancement of low-level marine clouds 174
10.5 Surface albedo enhancement 176
10.6 Carbon dioxide removal 176
10.7 Discussion 183
References 184

Index 187
Preface

The Greek word for human kind is anthropos. The term Anthropocene
was proposed over two decades ago by Paul Crutzen (atmospheric scientist
and Nobel laureate) and Eugene Stoermer (biologist) to indicate a new
geological epoch in which the intensity of human activity strongly impacted
Earth Systems, thereby marking the end of the current Holocene epoch,
and justifying a new epoch. The Anthropocene has not been formalized
as a new geologic epoch and even the boundary between it and the earlier
Holocene has not yet been agreed upon,but the term nevertheless has gained
widespread currency in both the scientific and popular literature.
This book follows the original suggestion that the Industrial Revolu-
tion marks the beginning of the Anthropocene, marked by the transition
from a pastoral lifestyle to an industrial one largely based in cities (circa
1800 AD). This time frame corresponds to an increase in burning of coal
and increased emissions of greenhouse gases,especially carbon dioxide.Based
on ice cores, the preindustrial atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
was about 280 ppm (compared to ∼420 ppm in 2020) and is commonly
used as a reference point when discussing climate change. By 2017, the
global mean surface temperature had increased by 1.0°C (± 0.2) (1.8°F) since
preindustrial times, and both of these reference frames are used throughout
the book.
The concept of the Anthropocene provides a lens through which insight
into man’s effects on the environment can be viewed in a structured histor-
ical fashion. It is worth noting that the geological community on altering
the geological time scale moves at a glacial pace: in 1878, Charles Lapworth,
proposed the Ordovician Period to be placed between the younger Silurian
Period and the older Cambrian Period; the proposal was formally accepted
in 1976.
This book is to a large extent based on the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) together with the United Nations provides the basis for these
reports which are published approximately every five or six years. The
United States Government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4,
2017), with input from 13 government agencies, is also heavily relied upon
and its conclusions agree closely with those of the IPCC reports. The fifth
IPCC report (IPCC-AR5) was published in 2013–2014 and the latest report

ix
x Preface

(IPCC-AR6) was published in August of 2021, having been delayed by the


global pandemic of 2020. Report volumes are divided into three working
groups (WG1, II, III), and each chapter commonly has twenty or more
international expert authors and each volume is weighty, often at a thousand
pages or more per volume. The peer review process of these reports has
several rounds and is extensive and lengthy. This book is largely a summary
of these reports.
Following Caesar’s Gaul, the book is divided into three parts. Part I
addresses the physical science basis of climate change and is largely based
on IPCC-AR5 (2013). Chapter 1 addresses the basic observations indicating
climate change, followed by the drivers of this change in chapter 2. Chapter
3 examines computer climate models and chapter four looks at paleoclimate
reconstructions. Part II examines climate impacts in various regions of the
USA (based on NCA4, 2017), followed by adaptation and mitigation sce-
narios. Part III looks at the difference between 1.5 and 2.0°C warming risks
(based on IPCC Special Report, 2018) followed by the road map to net-zero
emissions by 2050 (based on the International Energy Agency 2021 report).
The final chapter examines climate engineering (or geoengineering), which
is widely regarded as a last resort option, and this chapter is based on the
current scientific literature.
Although Anthropos applies to all humanity, it is clear that, based on
geography and socioeconomic status, the impacts of climate change are
related to social inequities and the impacts are not and will not be distributed
evenly– the developing countries and the poor will be most affected. The
Paris Agreement of 2015 recognized this fact but whether the developed
countries will fulfill their monetary promises to developing nations remains
in doubt. The United States re-entered the Paris agreement in 2020. The
United Nations climate summit of November 2021 (COP 26), held in
Glascow, agreed to reduce methane emissions (by 30%) by 2030 and also
to eliminate deforestation by the same date. No agreement to a coal ban was
reached, as China, India and Russia did not sign on.
PART I

1. Our globally changing climate 3


2. Physical drivers of climate change 19
3. Evaluation of climate model performance 41
4. Paleoclimates 63
CHAPTER 1

Our globally changing climate


1.1 Introduction
The Earth sciences study a multitude of processes that shape the spatial and
temporal character of our environment (Fig. 1.1). Modern day observations,
archives of past climates, climate model projections, and statistical tools,
can all be used to yield significant insight into climate change, resulting
in conclusions that have variable levels of confidence from high to low
(see Cubasch et al., 2013). The Earth’s climate system is powered by solar
radiation about half of which is in the visible and ultraviolet range of the
electromagnetic spectrum. The sun provides its energy primarily to the
tropics, which is redistributed to higher latitudes by atmosphere and ocean
transport processes. The relatively cool temperature of the Earth’s surface
means it reradiates energy in the long wavelength part of the spectrum
(infrared) and much of this radiation is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere
such as water vapor, CO2 , CH4 , and N2 O as well as halocarbons – this is the
greenhouse effect. Given the Earth has had a near constant temperature over
the past few centuries the incoming solar energy must nearly balance the
outgoing energy to space, and clouds play an important role in this energy
balance. About 30% of the shortwave radiation is reflected back to space
by clouds, causing cooling. On the other hand, some clouds, depending
on elevation, trap long wave radiation, heating the surface, and the lower
atmosphere.
Climate is average weather over a prolonged period, commonly taken
as three decades or longer, and climate change refers to a change in
the state of the climate (based on statistical tests), such as temperature,
precipitation, or drought. For example, during the last glaciation, stadial,
and interstadial periods were characterized by cold/dry climates (stadials)
alternating with warm/wet climates (interstadials), on a millennial time scale
(O’Hara, 2014). Fig. 1.1 summarizes several key elements of the climate
system; elements interact with one another in complex ways involving both
positive and negative feedbacks (see Chapter 2). This chapter summarizes
several indicators that our planet is currently warming. The warming dates
back to the beginning of the anthropocene, where the mean temperature
over the period 1850–1900 is taken as the reference period.
Climate Change in the Anthropocene. Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-820308-8.00005-2 All rights reserved. 3
4 Climate change in the anthropocene

Figure 1.1 Summary of major drivers of climate change. (Source with permission:
Cubasch et al., 2007.)

1.2 Global temperature


The fourth IPCC assessment report (LeTreut et al., 2007) provides a history
of early attempts at constructing a global temperature time series for the
nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The global average temperature is one
of the most important variables in the study of climate change as it correlates
with other variables such as ice melting, sea level rise, precipitation, and
because it has the most robust record over time. The concept of a global
average temperature is simple in principle but its calculation is far from trivial
(Vose et al., 2012). Although the thermometer was invented as early as the
1600s it was not until the 1900s that different global estimates of average land
temperature began to agree with one other.
The German climatologist W. Köppen (1846–1940) was one of the first
to recognize the major problems involved in the global average temperature
estimates namely, access to data in usable form, quality control to remove
erroneous data, standardization to ensure fidelity of data, and area averaging
in areas of substantial data gaps. Köppen averaged annual observations from
100 stations into latitude belts to produce a near global time series as early as
the late nineteenth century. The International Meteorological Organization
(IMO) formed in 1873, and its successor the World Meteorological Orga-
nization (WMO), still work to promote and standardize observations. The
Our globally changing climate 5

World Weather Records (WWR), formed by the IMO in 1923, provided


monthly data for temperature (and also pressure and precipitation) estimates
from hundreds of stations in the early twentieth century with data beginning
in the early 1800s. Callendar (1938) used these data to provide one of the first
modern land-based global average temperature time series. As mentioned in
the Preface, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) together with
the United Nations today provides the basis for the IPCC scientific reports
on climate change and on which this book is largely based.
Today,three research groups study global sea and land-based temperatures
put together from piecemeal records (Vose et al.,2012):the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-
NCDC), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration’s Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) and the Met Office Hadley
Center and Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT). Each group uses some-
what different input datasets and they also analyze the data with different
methodologies. For example, GISS makes extensive use of satellite data,
whereas NCDC uses it in a limited capacity and HasCRUT makes no use of
satellite data. Similarly, GISS and NCDC provide temperature estimates in
unsampled areas (using interpolation), whereas HasCRUT does not. Despite
these differences all three groups reach a similar conclusion: since 1900 the
global average surface temperature increase has been about 0.8 ± 0.2°C. The
fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5, 2013) and
the US government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4, 2017)
reports both agree with this conclusion with a high level of confidence.
These reports also project that by the end of this century (2100) the global
average temperature increase will be between 2.0°C and 5.0°C, depending
on greenhouse gas emissions and population and economic growth among
other variables (see Chapter 6).

1.3 Land surface temperature


The dataset used by NCDC consists of historical monthly data going back
a century from over 7000 surface weather stations. The data set is reviewed
for quality assurance and spatial inconsistencies. Land surface temperatures
require adjustments due to a variety of causes such as station relocation,
change in instrumentation (e.g., automation), urbanization (the city heat
effect) and land use, and microclimate changes. Such changes typically
produce an abrupt jump relative to its neighbor stations. These artifacts
are indentified automatically by comparing surrounding stations pair wise.
Reno Nevada, for example, required an adjustment of 2°C after the station
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