THERE’S

NO WATER
AVAILABLE
Commonsense Recommendations
To Limit Colorado River Conflict
Analysis from Great Basin Water Network and its Colorado River partners.

1 | The Great Basin Water Network

 INTRODUCTION
The Colorado River System represents Today, the river system is increasingly
what it means to be American. From the becoming a symbol of hubris, conflict,
Rocky Mountains to the Grand Canyon injustice, and uncertainty — illustrated in
— from Boulder Canyon to the Gulf of real-time by unfilled reservoirs, depleted
California — the river exemplifies our groundwater, unseeded fields, and the
expanse of landscapes, culture, and unrealistic promise of endless societal
industriousness. growth.

The 20th-Century infrastructure on the The river – and those who depend on
river continues to serve our nation’s it – has lost nearly 20 percent of natural
hunger for fresh foods, urban growth, and flows in the past quarter century. The
recreational opportunities. nation’s top scientists think it is possible
to lose another 20 percent in the coming
With its extensive system of man-made decades.1 Public officials and water
dams, canals, pump stations and pipelines managers know that the demand in all
— for farming, hydropower, municipalities, sectors of the river system — in all corners
leisure, and public safety — the river of the watershed — outpaces supply.2
symbolizes our inherently American But addressing the supply-and-demand
desires to build, control, and grow the problem leads to conflict among all who
world around us. depend on the river system’s waters.

There's also a legacy of inequity. Officials from the federal government

Indigenous communities with senior and the seven basin states have a 2026
water rights and exigent needs, cannot deadline to develop a new framework for
get the waters to which they are entitled. It managing the Colorado River System’s
is a venal part of our flawed management largest reservoirs (Post-2026 Guidelines).3
system. The current moment, despite the ever-

2 | The Great Basin Water Network

 present uncertainty, poses an opportunity It is clear that the future will be about
to implement lasting solutions that adapting to hydrologic extremes. It is also
can endure any drought or political clear that the water laws and hydraulic
climate. But impasses among state-level engineering developed in the 20th
negotiators and changes at the federal century did not foresee the realities we
level cast a pall over the future. face today.

The deadlines, personnel, and complicated The supply-focused approaches during

history do not limit the need for change or the last 120 years — i.e. encouraging use —
our collective ability to implement it. But has landed us in crisis. It’s time for a fresh,
they can propel meaningful action and modernized approach. Nevertheless, we
participation. believe that the necessary change isn’t
as complicated as people in power want
The future problems we face will only us to believe. We need to prevent waste,
be made worse by the impacts of our inefficiencies, and overuse. We don’t need
changing climate: erratic precipitation a change in laws as much as we need a
events, surprising shifts in temperature, shift in mindsets.
unreliable snowmelt runoff patterns, dry
soils, dust storms, and many other factors Our recommendations take a simple
that are simply out of our control. There is approach. We must reduce use and
scientifically driven evidence that we will prevent the continued over-consumption
have hotter and longer droughts, more of the river system. We can do so in an
wind-blown wildfires, and unpredictable equitable way that does not involve foot-
weather patterns year by year in the dragging and finger-pointing.
foreseeable future.
This report offers nine
The shifts in the natural world signal recommendations for the new
a high likelihood of increasing conflict administration and any subsequent
among human communities that are administration, to weigh as we watch
already sparring over smaller and smaller reservoir levels decline in conjunction
supplies of water. The prospects of serious with our snowpacks and runoffs.
interventions from litigation or emergency We implore the principal negotiators
legislation on these matters indicate a representing the seven basin states
future of uncertainty rather than stability to consider this framework as they
and equity. decide what is best for their waters and
communities moving forward. We hope
Moreover, some officials in the Colorado that the public uses this document as a
River Basin are planning to divert even springboard for increased awareness and
more water away from the river system in engagement.
the coming years — believing that water
is available for new industrial, municipal We can’t make new water and turn back
and agricultural uses. This includes the time. But we can create solutions to
shift toward excessive groundwater make our existing supplies work harder
depletion that serves as a surrogate water for human populations and natural
supply to satisfy surface water deficits but, communities.4
ultimately, imposes greater strain on the
system.

3 | The Great Basin Water Network

 WE BEGAN
DRAFTING THIS
REPORT AS A
RESPONSE TO
THE COLORADO
RIVER CRISIS.
But what's within can be applied to arid regions
anywhere in the world. Our organization knows from
experience the cutthroat realities of managing flows
on the river system. We were born out of Colorado
River conflict. For 30-plus years the Southern Nevada
Water Authority attempted to import groundwater
from hundreds of miles away to augment Lake Mead's
supply. Since we halted that dangerous proposal in 2020,
the need for a long-term conservation ethic among
all parties in the western U.S. grows by the day. Some
water managers adapt more responsibly than others.
Consequences are inevitable. We continue to work
with longstanding partners in hopes of preventing
future challenges. These solutions are concepts that
don't require major statutory overhauls as much as they
demand a willingness to understand that outlooks have
to change when there's no water available. As we have
for many years, we lean heavily on our NGO partners for
their knowledge and guidance. This report was done
in partnership with Living Rivers-Colorado Riverkeeper,
Utah Rivers Council, and the Glen Canyon Institute.

Kyle Roerink,
Executive Director
Great Basin Water Network

4 | The Great Basin Water Network

 CONTENTS
6 Issues and
Recommendations Summary

8 Recommendation 1:
Moratorium On New
Dams and Diversions

9 Recommendation 2:
All States Need
Curtailment Plans

14 Recommendation 3:
The "Natural Flow" Plan Won't
Work Until There Are Better Data

16 Recommendation 4:
Alter Glen Canyon Dam to
Protect the Water Supply
for 25 Million People

18 Recommendation 5:
Curtailing Junior Users to
Serve Tribes

19 Recommendation 6:
Tackle Municipal Waste And
Invest In Reuse Basinwide

21 Recommendation 7:
Protect Endangered Species

23 Recommendation 8:
Make Farms Resilient
to New Realities

25 Recommendation 9:
Stabilize Groundwater Decline

27 Conclusion: Water Is Not

Available, But Hope Is

28 Works Cited

Summer 2025
greatbasinwater.org
[email protected]

5 | The Great Basin Water Network

 Photo: Colorado River near Dead Horse State Park, Grand County, UT.

ISSUES AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
SUMMARY
If we don’t stabilize our system
and prepare for a drier world,
we will pay a painful price as a
nation and as individuals.

T
he following report highlights nine policy
prescriptions that can help us forge a new
future on the Colorado River System. These
recommendations are predicated on three simple facts:

1. On average, there is less surface water in

the system than during the 20th Century.
2. There will be continued declines in average
flows on the river in the coming decades.5
3. Diminishing groundwater supplies,
which are connected to the system,
are contributing to the losses.

6 | The Great Basin Water Network

 The indisputable evidence of drier times
ahead illustrates a few simple conclusions: All
parties currently using water must commit to
using less than they have in the past. No new
infrastructure shall divert, store, and siphon
away water from the river system. Entities with
junior rights should, as laws require, reduce
their usage first. We need newfound respect for
tribes and their senior, pre-compact allocations
of water. Major metropolitan areas must be able
to serve their people on a more limited supply,
and they are not entitled to endless supplies for
endless growth in the arid regions of the desert
southwest. Endangered species have rights
that must be upheld. Outdated infrastructure
must be replaced with forward-thinking
frameworks. Agriculture’s role in solving the
crisis must be carefully and equitably conducted.
And, lastly, groundwater management
must improve or declines will continue.
COLORADO RIVER MATH
To do this, we don’t have to tear up compacts,
• 1922 compact asumes 18 million rewrite laws, or sue one another. However, we
acre-feet annually need a shared sense of responsibility. A stable,
• Seven U.S. states divvy 15 million reliable system requires reducing consumptive
acre-feet annually uses across all corners of the Colorado River
• 21st century average flows are Basin. No water user, tributary, or regulator
12.5 million acre-feet annually should be exempt. Respect, shared responsibility,
• Scientists expect more losses and a commitment to future generations
in coming years must all guide our collective actions.
• Demand continues to outpace

Here is how
we can make
that happen.

7 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 1:
Forgo New Dams
and Diversions
Click here to see our interactive map.

There are more than 1000 existing dam and

diversion projects in the Colorado River System.
There are 15-20 major projects, many of which
were federally authorized and constructed
at the behest of the Bureau of Reclamation.
Additionally, there are hundreds of smaller
water impoundment structures throughout
the mainstem of the river and its tributaries. In
order to protect flows, local, State and federal
regulators must prohibit new dam and diversion
projects — barring exceptions for tribes who
have senior water rights. Unfortunately, other
entities have different ideas.

A new dam, diversion, pipeline, pump, or canal

means that water benefitting the system today
or going to an existing rights holder may not be
there in the future. It will be used by another entity
elsewhere. Proposed Dam and Diversion Projects
Existing Large Dams
This will lead to more conflict and uncertainty. Existing Reservoirs
CRB River Lays
A host of powerful interests wants to take more A map of proposed dam and diversion projects in the
out of the system rather than prepare for drier Colorado River Basin from Great Basin Water Network.

times.
Other news reports highlight that approved
After reviewing regulatory documents, developer water rights in the state of Colorado could take an
proposals, and news stories, we have tallied more additional 2.6 million acre feet away from nature
than 30 project proposals in the Upper Basin and downstream users.6 This could mean dozens
that could consume more than 1 million acre feet of new reservoirs storing water that’s currently
from the river system. The analysis excludes tribal headed somewhere else in the river system.
projects, and some are speculative efforts that
may never happen. But many of those efforts are One of the easiest ways to ensure a stabilized
backed by interests with the resources and clout system is by prohibiting new infrastructure that
to execute more consumptive uses of the river impounds and diverts additional water away from
system. the river system.

8 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 2:
All States Need
Curtailment Plans
Right now, Upper Colorado River Basin States an index of cuts for users based on priority dates
do not have water curtailment plans for times and other factors — states are not abiding by the
of shortage that are understood by their sister Doctrine of Prior Appropriation and jeopardizing
states and other water users in the region. the rights of other users.
Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming have
detailed estimates of how much more water Cuts can manifest in a variety of ways, but
they want to use, which is known as a depletion there needs to be equity in understanding
schedule. This gets the priorities all wrong. who gives up what and when. Having a clear-
Rather than planning on using more, we need cut understanding of what entities have to cut
states to plan on cutting. during shortages is something that’s already in
place in the Lower Basin. The Upper Basin must
Curtailment is a principal element of the Prior develop a similar system of cuts predicated on
Appropriation Doctrine. In theory, regulators water availability and delivery obligations that
resort to curtailment when demand far exceeds consider downstream use and Upper Basin water
supply and junior water users threaten or impact availability.
senior rights. Without a curtailment schedule —

FIGURE 1: Lower Basin Curtailment Plan

as agreed upon by the states.

Courtesty of Arizona Department of Water Resources.

9 | The Great Basin Water Network
For years, Upper Basin states proclaimed that in and accurate accounting. Recently, a cohort of
dry times they use less water. But new data show academics called on the Upper Basin to begin
that in the drier years, Upper Basin States use drafting a plan that would also require more of a
more water than in an average year.7 shared burden among all states in the Colorado
River Basin.8
In 2025, Lakes Mead and Powell are each hovering
around 30 percent of their capacity. We are not For all states in the region, the current levels at
far away from the dangerous elevations we saw the nation’s largest reservoirs exemplify the need
in Summer of 2022. While we can’t predict the to devise a commonsense reduction plan.
future, we do know that one big winter like that Figure 3 shows total capacity vs existing contents
of 2022-2023 cannot return us to reservoir levels of Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The fact that both
that compare to 1998 or 1999. Because of the lakes' total capacity is about one third of their
imbalance in the system, basin-wide curtailment total capacity after winters 2023 and 2024 should
will ensure that senior rights holders, including be alarming. And the reservoir levels should also
tribes, have water to which they are entitled. be a call for bold action to decision-makers.

Following the onset of the Millennium Drought, Furthermore, what we can say for certain is
Lower Basin regulators, including Mexico, began that, while the Upper Basin has no long-term,
developing an agreed-upon curtailment plan. identifiable plan to reduce consumption, those
That was expanded with the 2019 Drought states do have concrete plans to use more. Figure
Contingency Plan (See Figure 1). The current 2 shows the proposed increase in water use in the
Lower Basin plan outlines more than 1.4 million upper basin states, despite this tenuous state of
acre feet of cuts in times of shortage. Lower Basin affairs. This plan, approved by the Upper Colorado
entities have agreed to continue that in the future River Commission, charts the expected increases
and likely foresee additional conservation as in annual water use of Colorado River water by at
necessary. least 800,000 acre-feet by 2070. The table shows a
breakdown of the increasing water use by sector,
Upper Basin states have no such plan. That must and the map provides a visual representation of
change in order to provide certainty, predictability proposed new water use projects.

FIGURE 2: Proposed Upper Basin Increase Approved

by the Upper Colorado River Commission

6600
Thousand Acre-Freet of usage

6400

6200
(proposed)

6000

5800

5600

5400

5020
Current/ 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Historic
Year

*See footnote 10 at Works Cited.

10 | The Great Basin Water Network
 FIGURE 3: Full Capacity of the Nation’s Two Largest
Reservoirs Vs Their Current Storage

Lake
Mead
8.6 MAF 27.6 MAF

Lake
Powell
7.6 MAF 25.2 MAF

Current Total Data collected from Bureau of

Capactiy Capacity Reclamation's April 24-Month Study.

FIGURE 4: Declining Upper Basin

Water Supply vs. Current Water Use
7
Upper Basin Colorado River Water Supply (maf)

Surplus
5 21st Century Average Use (2016 - 2018)

Deficit
3 Colorado River Water Supply

0% 5% 10% 15% 19% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

15.2 14.4 13.7 12.9 12.4 12.2 11.4 10.6 9.9 9.1

Percent Reduction Scenarios in Colorado River Flows Below

20th Century Average & Equivalent Water Volume (maf)

This graph shows how the Upper Basin’s Colorado River water supply declines rapidly as climate change
depletes the flows of the Colorado River, quickly outpacing the Upper Basin’s current Colorado River use, shown
as a red line. The Upper Basin has been using 4.6 million acre feet annually on average in recent years. A 20
percent reduction in flow signals that Upper Basin interests are using more than what's available.

11 | The Great Basin Water Network

 Photo: Wahweap Marina at Lake Powell near Page, AZ.

How can this happen in a system where the In Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado,
largest reservoirs are not full? water availability is an important consideration
when regulators make new appropriations under
The Colorado River Compact outlines that the those state statutory constructs.11 12 13 14 Water must
Upper Basin could use 7.5 million acre feet per be available in order for regulators to make a new
year. The 1948 Upper Basin Compact, however, appropriation on the Colorado River System in
outlines that Upper Basin states are to use those states, and any new appropriation must
percentages of what’s available. Currently, those not harm an existing senior right. We cannot
states proclaim to use less than their compact find credible science that shows unappropriated,
obligations allow.9 Therefore, the Upper Basin available water in the Colorado River Basin.
states claim an entitlement to use more water —
even though it doesn’t exist in the Colorado River The need for a basinwide curtailment plan
System. That is why, as detailed in Figure 2, Upper becomes obvious if you answer YES to the
Basin states believe they can ultimately use more following questions.
water during the next 45 years.10 But, as graphed in
Figure 4, the Upper Basin should already be using • Did the drafters of the Colorado River
less water because it is likely already exceeding its Compact over-estimate supply?
allocation pursuant to the 1948 law. To wit: There is • Have we lost 20 percent of flows in the last
less water in the system now, and the Upper Basin quarter century?
has to act accordingly by cutting usage. • Will we lose more flows to changing water
cycles on the river in the coming years?
The Upper Basin has some problems ahead if they
don't want to go down this path. Any new uses Curtailment plans reduce conflict while depletion
would be junior to the existing users in the Upper schedules foment uncertainty. Agreements to
and Lower Basin — meaning, in theory, that they reduce basinwide usage allow all water users to
would be cut first during times of shortage. But, know their priority in relation to one another and
most importantly, the laws of the Upper Basin provide certainty about how much water they
states require that water actually be available. And, will receive in times of shortage. It is dangerous to
a seminal question moving forward: Does anyone discuss proposals for using more water. We must
believe that water is actually available — especially discuss how we use less.
if that water is already going to Arizona, California,
or Nevada.

12 | The Great Basin Water Network

 FIGURE 5: Upper Colorado River States, Current and
Future Water Use Depletion Schedule in Acre Feet as
Approved by the Upper Colorado River Commission

Item Year

Current/
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Historic

Agriculture-
3,548 3,567 3,596 3,620 3,629 3,633 3,622
Irrigation & Stock

Municipal/Industrial 118 129 158 168 184 195 200

Energy 148 156 168 173 183 183 178

Minerals 53 59 73 90 107 125 136

Export 1,055 1,135 1,242 1,339 1,427 1,477 1,513

UT Tribal Water
- 2 70 141 148 153 153
Settlements

Reservoir
Evaporation 261 261 261 261 261 261 261
(in-state)

TOTAL Forecasted
5,183 5,309 5,558 5,792 5,939 6,027 6,063
Depletions

Shared Evaporation 520 520 520 520 520 520 520

TOTAL 5,703 5,829 6,078 6,312 6,459 6,547 6,583

*See footnote 10 at Works Cited.

13 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 3:
The "Natural Flow" Plan
Won't Work Until There
Are Better Data
In early Summer 2025, regulators ballyhooed a
forward-looking plan to apportion water usage
in the Upper and Lower Basin based on natural
flows. Officials told the public the concept
was a "breakthrough" to solve the negotiation
impasse over long-term management. But they
forgot to mention one thing: Agencies do not
yet have the means to quickly and accurately
measure natural flow data, a measurement
metric that tracks water as if there were
no human usage and infrastructure. That's
because the basin at-large is missing key data
points. Until officials begin to adequately collect
water data, we will be making guesses about
how humans and the environment consume
water in the river system.

Every drop of water should be accounted for in the Courtesy of the University of Arizona.
Colorado River Basin. There’s a basinwide need
for a more complete network of consumptive no consensus exists on how to assess evaporative
use measurements to better understand and system losses in the Colorado River Basin to
demand, availability, and conflict. Congress, state individual water users. The framers of the 1922
legislatures, and water users must fund more compact mostly punted on the issue.15 For years,
programs to install more gauges, implement there have been discrepancies and gaps about
efficiencies, and collect other necessary data on who is using what and where.
indirect consumptive losses associated with the
movement and storage of water in the system. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of
Reclamation exemplify the problem. They have
Evaporative and seepage losses must be different ways of assessing consumptive uses,
considered and charged to water users at all leaving uncertainty and gaps in the data.16
tributaries, reservoirs and canals throughout the
whole system. Evapotranspiration — what plants Pursuant to the 1948 Upper Basin Compact,
consume — must be considered along with other the Upper Basin currently has a framework for
estimates for return flow, solar radiation, humidity assessing net evaporation from Lake Powell,
and other factors that tell us more about the Flaming Gorge Reservoir, and the Aspinall Unit
journey of water in the Colorado River Basin. — imposing state-by-state reductions according
to their percentage share of the river.17 But what
While there are new technological advancements, about all the other parts of the system?

14 | The Great Basin Water Network

 Photo: Canal carrying Colorado River water near the California-Arizona border.

For years, evaporative and system losses in the commit to forever zeroing out its evaporative uses
Upper Basin were not consistently quantified.18 post-2026.
However, the Upper Colorado River Commission
is willing to adapt and test new models for Until there is an exacting and equitable means of
measuring consumptive uses with satellite accounting for those losses, there will continue to
data.19 But the Upper Basin states must extend be imbalances and declines at Lake Mead.
the hydrographic considerations of natural
phenomena like evaporation, channel losses, and We believe that Congress, state legislatures, local
seepage losses beyond the extent of the current governments and water users should all play a role
reporting at Colorado River Storage Project Units. in footing the bill.
Regulators must account for every tributary, canal,
ditch, and riparian area. One way or another, all water users in the Colorado
River Basin will have to manage water evaporation
The Lower Basin, which doesn’t charge users and seepage in ways they never have before.
for these losses or have a compact governing States need to consistently reduce use in a way
the three states and Mexico, has an incomplete that accounts for evaporation.
framework for measuring evaporation at major
reservoirs and tributaries.20 21 There are estimates Without the proper accounting, we will not be
that evaporation at Lakes Mead, Mojave, and prudently and responsibly managing the river
Havasu, along with losses from canals and other system. The "breakthroughs" that regulators will
means of transporting water in the region, be nothing but futile public relations gimmicks
amount to about 1.5 million acre feet per year. unless they take meaningful action immediately.

Funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, coupled

with the Lower Basin’s curtailment schedules,
helped to make up for the losses in dry years
by incentivizing conservation at Lakes Mead
and Powell. But it is a precarious and uncertain
calculation at the moment. Without a regulatory
proposal in public view and laws like the Inflation
Reduction Act in limbo, Lower Basin states must

15 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 4:
Alter Glen Canyon Dam to
Protect the Water Supply
for 25 Million People
The Bureau of Reclamation must make major
modifications to Glen Canyon Dam as soon
as possible to ensure that, if the dam must
continue to exist, that it will be adapted to
the threats imposed by climate change and
changing flow regimes. This process must be
transparent and undertaken swiftly.

As we have highlighted in past reports,

modifications could include constructing a
bypass that allows water to flow freely from one
side of the dam to the other. Next, the Bureau
of Reclamation must publicly detail its future
plans for Glen Canyon Dam. The Bureau must Photo: Lake Powell near Page, AZ.

also include modifications to Glen Canyon

Dam as part of the ongoing negotiations and
proposed alternatives for Post- 2026 Operations Because of the tubes’ small size and reduced
— something regulators have signaled they are “head” pressure, operating the dam solely on
unlikely to do. the river outlet works would severely constrict
downstream flows. The river outlet works were
We don't have time to waste. More than 25 million designed for emergency releases, not for long
Americans live downstream of Glen Canyon Dam term use.
and Grand Canyon National Park. Water must pass
through this man-made infrastructure before Furthermore, the river outlet works are susceptible
reaching communities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and to cavitation — a phenomenon of erosional forces
Los Angeles. that threatens the dam’s structural integrity.32
During a high-flow release in 2023, the river outlet
When the levels of Lake Powell dip below the works experienced cavitational damage, requiring
benchmark elevation of 3,490 feet above sea level, months’ long repairs and keeping a portion of the
dramatically less water can pass downstream river outlet works offline.
due to Glen Canyon Dam’s engineering. This
is because below 3,490 elevation, the only way River outlet failures have occurred at Flaming
for water to pass through the dam is through Gorge Dam in 1997 that severely limited
small tubes called the “river outlet works.” When downstream releases. This engineering flaw
the dam was constructed, it was inconceivable means that, as water levels decline in the future,
that the reservoir would ever drop near these legally required amounts of water may not make it
levels, but in 2023, it came within 30 feet of that to residents in major metropolitan areas, farmers
benchmark elevation. growing our winter crops, and wildlife species.

16 | The Great Basin Water Network

 FIGURE 6: Representation of Glen Canyon Dam's River
Outlet Works Courtesy of Utah Rivers Council

ANTIQUE PLUMBING INSIDE

GLEN CANYON DAM

3490
MINIMUM
HYDROPOWER HY
D
GENERATING LEVEL PE ROPO
NS
TO WER
CK
S

3430
COLORADO COMPACT
VIOLATION LEVEL

GLEN
LAKE CANYON RIV
POWELL DAM ER
3370 WO OUTL
RKS ET
DEADPOOL

TURBINE
ROOM

© UTAH RIVERS COUNCIL

This engineering defect at Glen Canyon Dam is The Bureau of Reclamation itself revealed that
the subject of much scrutiny and uncertainty — it is looking into modifications at the dam, but
especially as the dam shows signs of wear and stated that any such modifications would take
tear time and again.33 This could lead to litigation, a minimum of 10 years. With the exception of
dangerous and expensive water importation one webinar in 2023, Reclamation’s study of
schemes, and other problems in communities. modifications are taking place out of the public
It has prompted Lower Basin officials to ask the eye — preventing any input from the public and
Bureau of Reclamation to “modify” Glen Canyon stakeholders.34
Dam so that it delivers water at low levels, and
spurred some Lower Basin farmers to call for
studying abandoning storage at Lake Powell
entirely.

17 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 5:
Curtailing Junior Users
to Serve Tribes
All tribal communities need clean drinking
water supplies. The seven states and the
federal government must prioritize delivery of
a potable supply for native communities and
respect the date of acquisition associated with
tribal rights via Winters Doctrine. This level of
seniority shall indeed warrant curtailment of Photo: Daryl Vigil, middle, the co-director of the Colorado River
Water and Tribes Initiative, speaks at the 2023 Colorado River
non-tribal rights in some cases. We believe that Water Users Association Conference in Las Vegas.
focusing on 1-for-1 reductions/transfers is one
way to ensure equity. States must reduce junior
water usage until tribes’ pre-compact rights are As the Colorado River Water and Tribes Initiative
fulfilled.28 If that cannot be done, tribes must be underscores: Twenty-two of the region’s 30 tribes
justly compensated and in agreement with any have recognized rights to use 3.2 million-acre
means of fulfilling unmet obligations. feet of Colorado River system water annually, or
approximately 25 percent of the basin’s average
The Colorado River Compact has clear language: annual water supply. Yet 12 of the tribes have
Nothing shall affect the obligations of the United unresolved water rights claims, which could
States of America to Indian Tribes. Unfortunately, increase the overall volume of tribal water rights
we have not lived up to that standard in a in the Basin. But it is estimated that 65 percent of
demonstrable, meaningful way. tribal water is unused by tribal communities.29

There is not enough water in the system for new Currently, many tribes are not fully using their
uses. Under the priority doctrine, junior users must recognized rights for several reasons, including
accede to senior users. And under the Winters lack of necessary infrastructure and funding;
Doctrine, the 1908 federal case law that affirms antiquated and inefficient delivery systems; and
reserved tribal water rights, non-federal entitles constraints on off-reservation use. The lack of
like states cannot appropriate the tribal waters. use, however, does not imply that others can
But for more than a century, settler communities appropriate the water. Tribal water rights under
have been living and profiting off of tribal senior the Winters Doctrine are not rights granted by
water rights in practice. Tribal senior water rights the United States. These are rights that the tribes
users must be made whole. And the basin states maintained after they ceded territory and waters
and the federal government have failed to deliver. to the United States.
In order to meet the obligations to tribes, we
believe that junior users must curtail to account With tribes planning to fully develop and use their
for the tribes’ federally reserved water rights. water rights, many water users express concern
This cannot be ignored in the negotiations for throughout the Upper and Lower Basin about
long-term management among the states and how the expanded development of tribal water
the federal government. Since there are no new rights can be integrated with existing and future
water supplies, there must be a long-term plan to non-Indian uses of Basin water.
limit junior, non-tribal water rights used by settler
communities.
18 | The Great Basin Water Network
RECOMMENDATION 6:
Tackle Municipal
Waste And Invest
In Reuse Basinwide

Photo: Reducing municipal water waste can help make meaningful conservation gains in urban areas.

Municipal supply accounts for 18 percent of number of successful policy mechanisms and can
the use in the Colorado River System — with serve as a model for the southwest. 22 23
many of those users like Denver or Los Angeles
existing outside of the Colorado River Basin. To achieve those goals, SNWA has developed
These cities that depend on the Colorado programs for ensuring watering happens on
River must invest in maximizing every drop of certain days and at certain times to minimize
water. Federal, state, and local governments evaporation and have converted many turf lawns
must continue to invest in efforts for municipal to native and drought-resilient landscapes. In
water conservation and reuse. Cities and addition, they have implemented water rate
municipalities will not be able to rely on the tiers so that wealthy users who water elaborate
Colorado River as they once did. Governments landscapes pay more for water than middle-
at all levels must invest in resilience efforts class families. Finally, SNWA has imposed water
today to prepare for tomorrow. restrictions on businesses like data centers that
require water-intensive evaporative cooling. Other
The Southern Nevada Water Authority boasts a cities can and must learn from SNWA’s approach.

19 | The Great Basin Water Network

Today, water exported outside of the Colorado Additionally, we must consider the impact of
River Basin includes 47 individual inter-basin federal dollars. The Congress sent billions of dollars
transfer systems (i.e., canals, pipelines, pumps) flowing into western communities to combat
that in aggregate export ~12% of the river’s water.24 drought with a mix of short-term and mid-term
Cities like Denver and Los Angeles aren’t in the funding for municipal conservation between 2021
Colorado River watershed. But they continue to and 2024.
look elsewhere to meet their unrealistic demands
for water that feeds endless growth. That cannot Funding in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill
persist. There are better options. and Inflation Reduction Act provided significant
resources for urban conservation, focusing
For example, in 2021, the Infrastructure Investment on WaterSMART grants for aquifer recharge,
and Jobs Act authorized funding for a toilet-to- groundwater storage options, watershed health,
tap partnership between the Metropolitan Water and other projects. The Bureau of Reclamation’s
District of Southern California (MWD), the Central WaterSMART program budget was $1.8 billion
Arizona Project (CAP), and the Southern Nevada in 2025, which was a $41 million decrease from
Water Authority (SNWA). It’s a way to make more 2024.26 WaterSMART programs have helped fund
water available in Los Angeles while reducing the more than 2,357 projects since 2010.
community's reliance on the Colorado River. And,
simultaneously, it makes more water available in Cities across the West must stop trying to
Phoenix and Las Vegas. take more water from the Colorado River and
instead build resilience in their own watersheds
As passed by Congress, the law helps cover 25 by pursuing conservation, water recycling, and
percent of costs for a $3.2 billion water recycling groundwater recharge projects.
facility. The project maximizes supply in those
service areas by allowing MWD to recycle This will require government entities at all levels
wastewater for potable uses in the Los Angeles to invest in reductions via mandatory, voluntary,
Area. In return for additional financial investments subsidized, and non-funded mechanisms.
in the project, CAP and SNWA will bolster their
supplies in Phoenix and Las Vegas with a share of See our list27 of municipal water conservation
MWD’s Colorado River allocation. ordinances in the desert southwest.

In optimistic news, the fast-growing community

of St. George, which relies on the Virgin River, is
considering a reuse program. The Washington
County Water Conservancy District, which still
considers the Lake Powell Pipeline a long-term
option, is beginning to analyze and study the
prospects of toilet-to-tap.25

20 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 7:
Protect Endangered
Species

Photo: Humpback Chub courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

USFWS, the Bureau of Reclamation and other Dinosaur National Monument, and is a barometer
agencies must prevent continued declines of for the health of the Colorado River more broadly.
the Humpback Chub and other endangered
species in light of the rapid changes in the Populations of Humpback Chub, Colorado
Colorado River System. Furthermore, the U.S. River Pikeminnow, Razorback Sucker, and
Fish and Wildlife Service must re-establish the Bonytail have all declined immensely since the
Humpback Chub as endangered and prevent development of the river in the past 100 years.
the reclassification of any other endangered Native fish populations downstream of Colorado
species that are facing inevitable jeopardy. River Storage Project dams like Glen Canyon are
facing immense uncertainty as climate change,
First listed as endangered in 1967, the Humpback aridification, and predation from non-native
Chub population declines continue due to species portend an imperiled future in the river
mismanagement of Colorado River water. This system. And, even with the Endangered Species
fish’s colorful scales and fins make it a beauty Act in place, federal officials are not yet reviving
to behold, and its unique humpback and snout populations and stabilizing an ecological system
make it a treasured part of the Colorado River resembling anything near pre-development on
ecosystem. The fish is native to the area near the river.

21 | The Great Basin Water Network

While federal officials proclaim that certain Agencies like U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the
populations of Humpback Chub are stable30 or Bureau of Reclamation, and the National Park
that optimism abounds for other populations, Service should study entirely abandoning reservoir
facilities like Glen Canyon Dam pose major long- storage in Lake Powell by drilling river-level
term threats and challenge our ability to manage diversion tunnels around Glen Canyon Dam, which
a river in balance with nature. may prove to be the best hope for the Humpback
Chub.
Water temperature, flow, habitat fragmentation,
and turbidity all play a major role for the long-term Jack C. Schmidt, one of the top academics and
survival of species like the Humpback Chub. And, scientists on the river, believes the benefits would
again, the uncertain future leaves many to wonder be valuable. “Such an action would restore a
if populations are 1) resilient, 2) representative, natural streamflow and sediment regime to the
and 3) redundant — the three Rs USFWS uses to Grand Canyon and might benefit some pre-dam
measure a species’ ability to survive. elements of the Colorado River ecosystem... and
may represent a lesser threat to the continued
Of all native species in the Colorado River, the persistence of native fish species…”31
future of the Humpback Chub is most vulnerable
to immediate peril. The recent invasion of Short of drilling diversion tunnels, the Bureau
predatory smallmouth bass in the Grand must consider major management changes at the
Canyon — caused by low water levels at Lake dam by expediting new fish screens, modernizing
Powell — threaten the stronghold of Humpback temperature control, and augmenting sediment.
Chub populations in the river system. Serious
consideration must be given to managing a
drastic invasion in the Grand Canyon.

22 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 8:
Make Farms Resilient
to New Realities
Farms must begin to adapt along the Colorado farms for food. It is an intricate web.
River Basin as they continue to grow food for
human consumption, diversify income with As they have been for decades, agricultural
renewable energy, and invest in approaches operations with senior water rights will be vital
that make demand more flexible each year. for stabilizing water supplies in times of drought
There should be funding support for farmers to and feeding the nation in the winter months for
make these transitions, and each farmer should decades to come.
be able to make their own decisions about
how they adapt to the future. But adapt they As we’ve seen for decades in the Imperial Valley
must. As cities increasingly turn to agricultural and Palo Verde, big cities rely on agricultural
communities for leasing contracts and buy-and- water to fill gaps and to stabilize reservoirs in
dry efforts to augment supply, there must also times of shortage (See QSA and 2023 drought
be considerable environmental and economic negotiations).
analysis to ensure that big-money deals for
water do not harm front-line residents and If entities want agricultural water, they should
businesses in rural communities. buy or lease it from farmers. If farming businesses
don’t want to sell off their water, they could be
Agricultural producers are seen as an enemy in enticed to lease it.
the eyes of some Colorado River observers. Farms
have lots of water that big cities and powerful To make it possible for farms to provide water to
businesses want. Nevertheless, agricultural cities and wildlife in times of drought, we must
water also has the greatest potential to solve support farms to focus on crop rotations and
the Colorado River crisis. While it is undeniable marketing efforts for more waterwise crops. But
that the sector uses more than half the water we must also implement advanced irrigation
consumptively — a fact that holds true globally — techniques to maximize return flows or limit
agriculture is often on the front lines in droughts. systems losses with drip. Canal and ditch linings,
As droughts become more frequent, cities go to split season leasing, diversion infrastructure for
farms to purchase water, and farms are where return flows and other factors can benefit the
wildlife goes for water and habitat. We all go to system. Entrepreneurial farmers may also want

FIGURE 7: Share of water use by sector in the Colorado River Basin

Sector Percent of Consumptive Use on the River

Agriculture 52%

Municipal, Commercial, Industrial 18%

Reservoir Evaporation 11%

Evapotranspiration 19%
*See footnote 21 at Works Cited
23 | The Great Basin Water Network
 Photo: Courtesy of Imperial Valley Farm.

to invest in solar development and dry farming

techniques, which could diversify income and/
The Salton Sea Tells or allow for selling crops at a premium. It’s critical

a Co River Story that farmers be given support to make these

changes with funding and technical support.
Furthermore, these farmers must be able to
The Salton Sea and the Colorado River
choose how to adapt for the future themselves.
are inherently connected via geologic
They know their land and business models the
forces that have occurred over millions
best.
of years. Development of the Colorado
River and transfers of irrigation water to
It is easy to say that we need to take water
big cities have greatly impacted inflows
away from farms. But what will that look like in
to the Salton Sea
practice? The reality in the Colorado River Basin
in the last century.
is that taking away water from downstream
Because of society’s
agriculture in Southern California and Western
control of the river
Arizona will likely mean less water for the Salton
system, the sea is
Sea, the Colorado River Delta, and reservoirs like
largely dependent
Lakes Mead, Mojave, and Havasu. Undoubtedly,
on agricultural
unless management regimes are mindful to
runoff that was once diluted with more
not repurpose water, agricultural water in the
freshwater sources. Deals to prop up Lake
Lower Basin will not be conserved. It will likely be
Mead’s elevation have led to declines at
dammed and diverted in the Upper Basin.
the Salton Sea that impose new challenges
for the survival of wildlife, public health
We may never agree on the best way to do
management, and agricultural production.
something. But we can agree that the pool of
While many see agricultural water as a silver
agricultural water that currently exists in the
bullet for the river system, the situation at
system will be a lifeline for reservoirs and big cities
the Salton Sea highlights the challenges
when aridity hits us harder than we’ve ever seen
of ag-to-urban transfers and the problems
it. However, places like the Salton Sea tell us a
that natural and human communities must
story about the impacts of taking rural water to
face when their water leaves.
urban communities. There are environmental and
human impacts that must be considered.

24 | The Great Basin Water Network

RECOMMENDATION 9:
Stabilize Groundwater
Decline

Photo: Courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Groundwater and surface water are connected of surface water allocations, there is no “new”
systems. And what we see happening at the groundwater available for appropriation in any
surface level is happening at a greater degree Colorado River Basin State. State regulators, all
to our groundwater systems. Rapid warming, of whom oversee groundwater management
drying soils, changing runoff patterns, human independently, should act accordingly. There
activity, and other phenomena are impacting must be a greater focus on curtailing when
groundwater availability. Underground water necessary, limiting new appropriations, and
sources make up a considerable chunk of the managing the supplies with the understanding
overall available regional supply and serve the that it is all one conjunctive source.
river system itself in the Colorado River Basin.
In order to balance our surface water systems, It is important to understand the connected
we must consider the major declines we are nature of groundwater and surface water in the
witnessing in groundwater systems. State and Colorado River Basin. Shallow aquifer systems
federal regulators must consider how further capturing precipitation and connected to
groundwater appropriation will lead to conflict, deeper aquifers contribute what are known as
limit availability, and harm the overall state of groundwater baseflows, which feed surface water
the river system. We believe that, as in the case systems. Additionally, there are deeper, older

25 | The Great Basin Water Network

aquifers, hundreds or thousands of feet below A new study published in May 2025 affirms the
the surface, that also have discharge into surface downward trend, highlighting that groundwater
flows. From deep brines to last year’s snowpack, supplies in the Colorado River Basin are shrinking
water that is now underground is on a journey to by nearly 1.3 Million acre feet per year.37
discharge aboveground in most cases. In some
cases that journey may be a few months or a few Our understanding of groundwater availability,
years. In others, it might take a century or more. connectivity, and stressors improves years after
year. And in Nevada, for example, there has been
Reports and analysis conducted in the past a longstanding battle over groundwater sources
decades show that groundwater systems in the that ultimately feed an important Colorado River
Upper and Lower Basin are experiencing declines Tributary, the Muddy River. In 2023, after years of
and stresses. analysis and litigation among parties, the Nevada
Supreme Court upheld state-level actions to limit
In the Upper Basin, half of the water we see at usage and manage for a connected system that
the surface comes from groundwater baseflows, serves rural communities, endangered species,
according to research from the US Geological and the Colorado River System.38
Survey.35 This seminal USGS analysis underscores
that as temperatures rise and evapotranspiration Other states will have to follow the lead of Nevada
rates increase, there will be less groundwater as scarcity increases conflict and uncertainty.
entering surface water systems.

Recent studies have begun to quantify the losses

with startling results.

Between 2004 and 2013, scientists estimated

that groundwater supplies lost more than 5
million acre feet in the Colorado River Basin and
contributed to the overall loss of water that we can
see in the river system and its reservoirs.36

26 | The Great Basin Water Network

 Photo: Canyonlands National Park downstream of Mineral Bottom, Grand County, Utah.

CONCLUSION:
Water Is Not Available,
But Hope Is
Water officials can implement our recommendations without major changes in law or
regulation. These suggestions, first and foremost, require a change in mindset focused on
conservation unlike any other ever seen in the southwest. Congress, state officials, and local
water managers must all take note.

There are allocations of water on paper. And there are drops of water on the surface and in
the ground. We must reconcile the differences between what truly exists in reality and what
is a construct of the human mind.

The biggest threat to the Colorado River is not climate change. It is human intransigence.
The river system will always take care of itself. But do we know how to take care of
ourselves?

The behavioral problem on the Colorado River is not without a cure. Our nine
recommendations ensure better hydrologic accounting, shared sacrifice, and system
resilience. If implemented, we can improve ecosystems and human communities. We can
respect native communities, farmers who grow our food, metropolitan hubs, and public
interest values like wildlife, recreation, and the serenity of nature.

Our fates are inherently tied with one another. We must limit future conflicts and work to
resolve long-standing ones. As we await a long-term plan for future management on the
beleaguered river system, know that right now we can make a difference.

27 | The Great Basin Water Network

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See N.M.A.C. Title 19, Chapter 26, Part 2, Section 12
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See W.S. Title 41, Chapter 4, Section 503
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37
Supra at 4. See Figure 2 in report.
38
See Nevada Supreme Court opinion in Sullivan v. Lincoln County Water District.
https://law.justia.com/cases/nevada/supreme-court/2024/84739.html

28 | The Great Basin Water Network