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The Political Psychology of
Terrorism Fears
This page intentionally left blank
The Political
Psychology of
Terrorism Fears
Edited by
Samuel Justin Sinclair
and
Daniel Antonius

1
3
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide.

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countries.

Published in the United States of America by

Oxford University Press
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© Oxford University Press 2013

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior
permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law,
by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization.
Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the
Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above.

You must not circulate this work in any other form

and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The political psychology of terrorism fears / edited by Samuel Justin Sinclair and Daniel Antonius.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978–0–19–992592–6
1. Terrorism—Psychological aspects. 2. Terrorism—Political aspects. I. Sinclair, Samuel J., 1975–
II. Antonius, Daniel.
HV6431.P6185 2013
363.32501′9–dc23
2013001914

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
Samuel Justin Sinclair:
This book is dedicated to my mentor and friend, Dr. Kimberly Bistis. You have taught
me a lot about being a better psychologist, thinker, and person.

Daniel Antonius:
To “farfar,” who at the young age of 94 continues to be inspirational in
everything I do.
This page intentionally left blank
CON T E N T S

Dedication v
Acknowledgments ix
Contributors xi
Introduction xv
Samuel Justin Sinclair and Daniel Antonius

PART ONE
1. Trust in the U.S. Government and Antiterrorism Policies After 9/11:
Are We All in This Together? 3
Virginia A. Chanley
2. Perceptions of Threat, Trust in Government, and Policy Support
for the War in Iraq 20
George Shambaugh
3. Negative Emotions and Political Engagement 51
Michael J. Stevens
4. Beyond the Water’s Edge: Threat, Partisanship, and Media 67
Shana Kushner Gadarian
5. The War/Crime Narrative and Fear Content in Leader Rhetoric About
Terrorism 85
Krista De Castella and Craig McGarty
6. Fear of Suicide Terrorism: Consequences for Individuals and Politics 107
C. Dominik Güss, Alexandra Foust, and Dietrich Dörner
7. Policy Preference in Response to Terrorism: The Role of Emotions,
Attributions, and Appraisals 125
Geoffrey Wetherell, Bradley M. Weisz, Ryan M. Stolier, Adam J. Beavers,
and Melody S. Sadler

PART TWO
8. The Legacy of Fear in Northern Ireland 139
Rachel Monaghan
9. A New Normal? Australian Responses to Terrorism and Their Impacts 156
Anne Aly
10. Psychological Determinants of the Threat of Terrorism and Preferred
Approaches to Counterterrorism: The Case of Poland 171
Katarzyna Jaśko, Małgorzata Kossowska, and Maciej Sekerdej
11. An Exposure Effect? Evidence from a Rigorous Study on the Psychopolitical
Outcomes of Terrorism 193
Daphna Canetti, Carmit Rapaport, Carly Wayne, Brian J. Hall, and Stevan E. Hobfoll
12. Political Psychology of the Death Terror 213
Abdolhossein Abdollahi
13. Risk Perception, Fear, and Its Consequences Following the 2004 Madrid and
2005 London Bombings 227
Marie-Helen Maras
14. Rallying Without Fear: Political Consequences of Terror in a High-Trust
Society 246
Dag Wollebæk, Kari Steen-Johnsen, Bernard Enjolras, and Guro Ødegård

PART THREE
15. The Politics of Terrorism Fears 267
Richard Jackson
16. Constructing Psychological Terror Post 9/11 283
David L. Altheide
17. Why Is It So Difficult to Evaluate the Political Impact of Terrorism? 299
Ami-Jacques Rapin

Notes on Contributors 313

Index 321

[viii] Contents
ACKNOW L E D G ME N T S

We would like to express our profound appreciation to the distinguished group of

scholars who contributed to this volume and who gave their valuable time, exper-
tise, and resources in helping us put together what we believe is an important body
of work. The strength of the volume is reflected in the eminent group of profession-
als who contributed, and we are profoundly grateful and honored to have gotten the
chance to work with you.
We would also like to express our sincere gratitude to Abby Gross at Oxford
University Press, who encouraged us to publish this book and helped evolve our
thinking along the way. This is the second time we have been privileged to work
with you, and your professionalism, support, and kindness are unparalleled. We
hope to have this opportunity many more times! Thank you.
This book would also not have been possible without the support of our respec-
tive institutions, and we feel it is important to take a moment to express our appre-
ciation. SJS would like to thank his colleagues and friends at the Massachusetts
General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, and specifically at the Psychological
Evaluation and Research Laboratory (The PEaRL). More specifically, thank you to
Drs. Mark Blais, Kimberly Bistis, Michelle Stein, Jenelle Slavin-Mulford, and Sheila
O’Keefe. DA would like to thank his colleagues and friends at University at Buffalo,
New York University, and Erie County Forensic Mental Health Services. We feel
very lucky to have such an amazing group of friends and colleagues with whom to
share this work.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we’d like to thank our respective families
for the constant support and love we feel, even when our work carries us away for
a while. SJS would like to say thank you to his crew: Tatum, Cole, Reese, Ma, Q,
Lucy, and Maggie Muffin—I love you guys. DA would like to thank his family in
Denmark, Norway, and the United States—Thank you for everything!
This page intentionally left blank
CON T R IB UT O R S

Samuel Justin Sinclair Daphna Canetti

Department of Psychiatry School of Political Science
Massachusetts General Hospital & University of Haifa
Harvard Medical School Haifa, Israel
Boston, Massachusetts
Virginia Chanley
Daniel Antonius George Mason University
Department of Psychiatry Fairfax, Virginia
University at Buffalo School of Medicine
and Biomedical Sciences Krista De Castella
Buffalo, New York Department of Psychology
Stanford University
Abdolhossein Abdollahi Stanford, California
Department of Psychology
University of Limerick Dietrich Dörner
Limerick, Ireland Institute for Theoretical Psychology
Otto-Friedrich Universität
David Altheide Bamberg, Germany
School of Social Transformation
Arizona State University Bernard Enjolras
Phoenix, Arizona Institute for Social Research
Oslo, Norway
Anne (Azza) Aly
Department of Social Science and Alexandra N. Foust
International Relations Vanderbilt University
Curtin University Nashville, Tennessee
Perth, Australia
Shana Kushner Gadarian
Adam Beavers Department of Political Science
Department of Psychology Maxwell School of Citizenship and
San Diego State University Public Affairs
San Diego, California Syracuse University
Syracuse, New York
C. Dominik Güss Rachel Monaghan
Department of Psychology School of Criminology, Politics, and
University of North Florida Social Policy
Jacksonville, Florida University of Ulster
Newtonabbey, United Kingdom
Brian J. Hall
Bloomberg School of Public Health Guro Odegaard
Johns Hopkins University Institute for Social Research
Baltimore, Maryland Oslo, Norway

Stevan Hobfoll Carmit Rapaport

Department of Behavioral Sciences School of Political Science
Rush Medical College University of Haifa
Chicago, Illinois Haifa, Israel

Richard Jackson Ami-Jacques Rapin

National Centre for Peace and Department of History
Conflict Studies University of Lausanne
University of Otago Lausanne, Switzerland
North Dunedin, New Zealand
Melody Sadler
Katarzyna Jasko Department of Psychology
Institute of Psychology San Diego State University
Jagiellonian University San Diego, California
Kraków, Poland
Maciek Sekerdej
Malgorzata Kossowska Institute of Psychology
Institute of Psychology Jagiellonian University
Jagiellonian University Kraków, Poland
Kraków, Poland
George E. Shambaugh
Marie-Helen Maras School of Foreign Service and
Department of Criminal Justice Department of Government
State University of New York at Georgetown University
Farmingdale Washington, DC

Craig McGarty Kari Steen-Johnsen

School of Psychology Institute for Social Research
Murdoch University Oslo, Norway
Perth, Australia
Michael J. Stevens
Department of Psychology
Illinois State University
Normal, Illinois
[xii] Contributors
Ryan Stolier Geoffrey Wetherell
Department of Psychology Department of Psychology
San Diego State University DePaul University
San Diego, California Chicago, Illinois

Carly Wayne Dag Wollebaek

IDC Herzliya Institute for Social Research
Herzliya, Israel Oslo, Norway

Bradley M. Weisz
Department of Psychology
San Diego State University
San Diego, California

C O N T R I B U TO R S [xiii]
This page intentionally left blank
IN TROD UC T IO N

SAMUEL JUSTIN SINCL AIR AND DANIEL ANTONIUS

The last decade has seen a dramatic shift in how governments across the globe
understand and prioritize issues of national security, with terrorism emerging as
one of the single most critical threats with which to contend. Since the attacks of
September 11, 2001, over a trillion dollars has been spent by the United States in
the “War on Terror” (Mueller & Stewart, 2011), and the sociopolitical landscape
has changed dramatically with two new wars in Afghanistan and Iraq also bearing
significantly on international resources. Some have argued that we have evolved
into a “securitized” culture constructed to combat these threats, while other priori-
ties such as education, poverty, social security, social programs designed to help the
disadvantaged, and maintaining our basic infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, police
and fire, etc.) all have taken a backseat to the complex and ever-expanding national
security priorities that have ensued. These issues have been further complicated by
the evolving dynamic in the Middle East, with new worries about a nuclear arms
race and potential for these weapons to fall into the hands of terrorists.
In light of this change in zeitgeist, issues of terrorism and political violence have
become hotly debated topics in the political sphere around the globe. The events of
September 11, 2001 in particular have completely reshaped the landscape in which
we as citizens engage the political process. Policies about security and safety have
topped the agendas of government administrations over the last decade, particu-
larly within the United States. However, despite the fact that 9/11 occurred on U.S.
soil, one could easily argue that the fallout has been experienced internationally. For
example, some have argued that the 2004 Spanish General election was impacted
significantly by the terrorist attacks on Madrid in March, 2004. Others have sug-
gested that worries about terrorism have affected governmental decision-making
on issues such as whether and how to supply military assistance to the ongoing
NATO efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Fears of terrorism have continued over the last decade, and most recently have
become a central issue in the 2012 U.S. presidential debates, following on the
September 11 anniversary attacks on the U.S. embassy in Libya, which resulted in
the assassination of Ambassador Stevens. As recently as last year, terrorism alerts
were issued across Europe as evidence emerged that countries such as Germany
and France were specific targets. Following on this, cargo planes were intercepted
in the United States with packages containing bombs that were being sent to syna-
gogues in Chicago. Although we find ourselves a decade past 9/11, the reverbera-
tions of this event continue to be felt.
As a means of further unpacking the psychology of terrorism, we (the Editors)
recently completed a volume exploring the phenomenon of terrorism fears specifically,
seeking to root these dynamics within known theoretical and empirical frameworks
(Sinclair & Antonius, 2012). Our central thesis was that despite normalizing rates of
psychopathology within the United States and beyond, people continue to fear terror-
ism in meaningful ways. We further argued that existing frameworks for understand-
ing how people are affected psychologically by terrorism are inadequate, often relying
on specific clinical criteria for making a psychiatric diagnosis of some kind. In short,
we made the case that while many may not meet these specific clinical criteria, there
is evidence to suggest that people remain fearful about terrorism, and that fear varies
widely across time and context. These fears affect how people make decisions in their
lives, including where and what they do for work, as well as patterns of socializing and
traveling. These fears have also been shown more recently to impact how people make
decisions about political process, including the candidates they endorse for public
office and policies they support for legislation. For example, Toner and Elder (2001)
reported that in a December 2001 New York Times/CBS News poll, roughly two-thirds
of Americans surveyed after the 9/11 attacks said they were in favor of granting the
president additional powers to change the constitution as a means of keeping the
nation safe, and approximately the same number thought the government should be
allowed to monitor conversations between suspects and their lawyers. Roughly 80 per-
cent of those queried also supported the indefinite detention of terror suspects.
This pattern of data reflects the tendency of people to place more trust in their
governments to keep them safe from future violence following large-scale terror-
ist attacks, as has been noted elsewhere in the literature (Chanley, 2002; Chanley,
Rudolph, & Rahn 2000; Sinclair & LoCicero, 2010). For example, Chanley et al.
(2000) noted that trust in government had declined considerably prior to the 9/11
attacks, but that following the attacks trust in government “… rose to a level not
seen since the mid-1960s” (Chanley, 2002, p. 469). Sinclair and LoCicero (2010)
sought to empirically test this phenomenon more recently, and demonstrated that
fears of terrorism and the impact of changes in the governments’ color-coded alert
system were found to be significant predictors of trust in government for protection.
Attachment theory and evolutionary psychology were then used as frameworks for
understanding these effects, where people are driven to seek safety and security
from an authority figure when a significant threat is present.
Fears of terrorism following a terrorist attack have also been shown to affect
the economy, which itself is a prominent political issue. For example, in the
years following the 9/11 attacks the U.S. airline industry suffered billions of dol-
lars in losses, and were forced to lay off tens of thousands of employees. The U.S.

[xvi] Introduction
Congress was forced to pass a $15 billion bailout package for the industry. Two
airlines (US Airways and United) were subsequently forced to file for bankruptcy
in 2002 as a function of plummeting revenues and fewer people flying. The stock
markets have also been found to be sensitive to terrorism fears. For example, Lim
(2004) reported that immediately following the location of a bomb beneath the
train tracks in Paris in 2004, the Dow Jones Industrial average declined 80 points.
Granted, this event occurred after the Madrid bombings, which also likely played
a role in people’s fears, but it demonstrated the economic impact that terrorism
fears have as well.
As a means of further understanding how different types of emotional responses
to terrorism impact support for different governmental policies, Lerner and col-
leagues (2003) evaluated whether fear versus anger reactions had different effects
in terms of people’s perceptions of risk and policy preferences. As expected, Lerner
et al. (2003) reported that fear was associated with greater perceived risk than
anger, and was more predictive of precautionary, conciliatory measures aimed at
reducing external threat. They also noted that people exhibited greater optimism
in the context of increased anger, and greater pessimism in the context of fear. The
authors explain these findings in part by noting that anger, unlike fear, may lead
people to experience a greater sense of control over their environment, whereas fear
may lead people to experience a loss of control.
Some have suggested at various points over the last decade that fear has been
used as a political strategy to enlist support for both political candidates and spe-
cific governmental policies. For example, in 2009 Former Secretary of Homeland
Security, Tom Ridge, published a book in which he reported that he felt some pres-
sure to raise the U.S. terror alert level in the context of the 2004 Presidential elec-
tions, leading some to speculate that this was done for political purposes (Charles,
2009). Despite these claims, which have been made with increasing frequency in
more recent years, there has been very little systematic and scientific evaluation of
the impact of terrorism fears on political process. Instead, people have been left to
speculate as to who this benefits and how.
The purpose of this volume is to present an interdisciplinary and integrated
body of work, which explores how terrorism fears impact the political process in a
number of contexts. The volume contains multiple empirical studies examining how
emotions more globally, and fear specifically, are associated with political decision-
making and behavior. Further, it also contains a number of chapters presenting vari-
ous theoretical frameworks, such as probability neglect, terror management theory,
and other cognitive heuristics, which function as models for determining how and
why these dynamics manifest. Finally, given that this is an issue of international
significance, the current volume also contains a number of chapters examining how
fear and other emotions related to terrorism have impacted the political process in
nations around the globe, including: Northern Ireland, the Israeli-Palestinian con-
text, Poland, Iran, Australia, Norway, England, and Spain. In doing so, we hope to
demonstrate the complexity of these issues across cultures and time, and provide

I N T R O D U CT I O N [xvii]
some insight into how terrorism fears vary markedly as a function of context and
exert differing levels of influence on the political dynamic.
In our earlier work, we sought to present a new framework for understanding the
psychological impact of terrorism from a behavioral sciences perspective (Sinclair
& Antonius, 2012). In this former volume, we presented preliminary data in sup-
port of the presence of fear as separate from discrete forms of psychopathology, and
began to discuss the impact of these fears on real-world functioning. The primary
aim of the current volume is to extend this work by presenting new research investi-
gating how and why terrorism, and fears about terrorism specifically, affect political
decision-making and engagement in the political process. The implications of these
findings are then presented.

OVERVIEW OF THE VOLUME

The volume is organized into three main sections. The first section presents a number
of empirical and theoretical studies examining how perceived threat and emotional
responses to terrorism have been found to be associated with trust in government
more globally, as well as support for more discrete policies related to security and
defense. In the first chapter, Dr. Chanley presents research on how trust in govern-
ment has varied considerably in the last decade, spiking immediately following the
9/11 attacks and then dissipating over time. She then presents research discussing
how differences in reactions to terrorism have been found to be associated with
different types of approach-avoidant behaviors as it relates to subsequent decision-
making about policy. She discusses these trends within the context of Evolutionary
Theory, where different responses to a perceived threat may lead to different pat-
terns of behaviors (for example, supporting aggressive retaliation versus pulling
back and avoiding conflict)—all aimed at protecting a given population.
In chapter 2, Dr. Shambaugh extends this work in several important ways. First,
he discusses how varying levels of trust in government during the last three years of
the George W. Bush Administration impacted threat perception and policy support
for the war in Iraq. Further, he demonstrates how these effects varied as a func-
tion of how trust in government is defined (for example, whether it depended on
how trustworthy the information is, the integrity of public officials, or effective-
ness of governmental policy). One interesting finding he discusses, which is per-
haps explained in part by the evolutionary model presented above, is that higher
trust in the integrity of public figures was found to be associated with lower per-
ceived threat, while those with lower trust have a higher level of perceived threat.
Additionally, Dr. Shambaugh discusses the distinction between perceiving threat to
one’s self versus the larger nation, and the varying impact of this on policy support.
Dr. Stevens expands this discussion in chapter 3 to explore how different kinds
of emotions (fear versus anger, for example) potentiate different types of reactions,
and how this may vary depending on context. For example, he discusses research
on how people become more unforgiving and less tolerant in the context of persist-
ent and repeated acts of terrorism over time, which in turn may increase support

[xviii] Introduction
for government retaliation and a more general “hostile-world effect.” Dr. Stevens
presents a body of research showing how these reactions may be moderated by
emotional response, where fear and anxiety are associated with more avoidant
behavior, less support for military intervention, and greater preference for isola-
tionist policies—all as a means of mitigating threat. Conversely, emotions such as
anger are associated with more aggressive and retaliatory policies, and higher level
of engagement and approach behavior. Dr. Stevens then discusses certain heuristics
which describe how emotions may impact the processing of information, and lead
to overestimating versus underestimating threat information.
Following earlier chapters focused on issues of governmental trust, Dr. Gadarian
presents her own experimental research demonstrating the effect of partisanship
on threat perception in a politicized context in chapter 4. Specifically, her findings
suggest that following 9/11, Democrats who perceive threat information as being
manipulated in some way (and therefore less trustworthy) are less likely to accept
the information and more prone to resist it. That is, as issues related to terrorism
are perceived as being politicized in some way, it is more likely to be rejected by
Democrats, suggesting that political ideology also plays a meaningful role in risk
perception and subsequent emotional response.
Because the media and political elites alike have the ability to control the flow of
threat information, which raises questions about the potential for this information
to be used for political purposes, it is also important to understand how political
leaders communicate with the public they are elected to represent. In chapter 5,
De Castella and McGarty present a very interesting narrative analysis of various
speeches made by George W. Bush, Tony Blair, and Osama bin Laden. Based on
these analyses, they note that fear content in these communications vary markedly
across time, context, and speaker—all of which has implications for how the pub-
lic would be expected to support different policies (e.g., going to war with Iraq).
They conclude their chapter with a call for both politicians and the public alike to
consider the manner in which these types of narratives perpetuate certain political
dynamics, and to move towards a more rational and evenly considered narrative
approach as a means of reducing fear and worry, and moving away from the War/
Crime discourse of terrorism.
In chapter 6, Güss, Foust, and Dörner seek to present a more integrated approach
to understanding the psychological mechanisms (e.g., motivational, emotional, cog-
nitive) underlying how people respond to acts of suicide terrorism, and how this in
turn impacts political attitudes both at the level of the general population and polit-
ical leader. These dynamics are considered across various contexts, including in the
aftermath of terrorist attacks and in contexts where terrorism is more common. The
fear response is considered more specifically in terms of how it impacts decision-
making as it relates to terrorism, and motivates people to seek out specific needs.
Finally, Section One concludes with a chapter by Wetherell, Weisz, Stolier,
Beavers, and Sadler (chapter 7). These authors present two theoretical models
(Attribution Theory and Appraisal Theory) as a means of examining how different

I N T R O D U CT I O N [xix]
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