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 Machine Learning
For
Absolute Beginners:
A Plain English Introduction

Second Edition

Oliver Theobald
Second Edition
Copyright © 2017 by Oliver Theobald
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or
by any means, including photocopying, recording, or
other electronic or mechanical methods, without the
prior written permission of the publisher, except in
the case of brief quotations embodied in critical
reviews and certain other non-commercial uses
permitted by copyright law.

Edited by Jeremy Pederson and Red to Black Editing’s

Christopher Dino.

For feedback, media contact, omissions or errors

regarding this book, please contact the author at
[email protected]
TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE
WHAT IS MACHINE LEARNING?
MACHINE LEARNING CATEGORIES
THE MACHINE LEARNING TOOLBOX
DATA SCRUBBING
SETTING UP YOUR DATA
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
CLUSTERING
BIAS & VARIANCE
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
DECISION TREES
ENSEMBLE MODELING
DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENT
BUILDING A MODEL IN PYTHON
MODEL OPTIMIZATION
NEXT STEPS
FURTHER RESOURCES
DOWNLOADING DATASETS
APPENDIX: INTRODUCTION TO PYTHON
1
PREFACE
Machines have come a long way since the onset of the Industrial
Revolution. They continue to fill factory floors and manufacturing
plants, but their capabilities extend beyond manual activities to
cognitive tasks that, until recently, only humans were capable of
performing. Judging song contests, driving automobiles, and
detecting fraudulent transactions are three examples of the complex
tasks machines are now capable of simulating.
But these remarkable feats trigger fear among some observers. Part
of this fear nestles on the neck of survivalist insecurities and
provokes the deep-seated question of what if? What if intelligent
machines turn on us in a struggle of the fittest? What if intelligent
machines produce offspring with capabilities that humans never
intended to impart to machines? What if the legend of the singularity
is true?
The other notable fear is the threat to job security, and if you’re a
taxi driver or an accountant, there’s a valid reason to be worried.
According to joint research from the Office for National Statistics and
Deloitte UK published by the BBC in 2015, job professions including
bar worker (77%), waiter (90%), chartered accountant (95%),
receptionist (96%), and taxi driver (57%) have a high chance of
becoming automated by the year 2035.[1] Nevertheless, research on
planned job automation and crystal ball gazing concerning the future
evolution of machines and artificial intelligence (AI) should be read
with a pinch of skepticism. In Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers,
Strategies, author Nick Bostrom discusses the continuous
redeployment of AI goals and how “two decades is a sweet spot…
near enough to be attention-grabbing and relevant, yet far enough to
make it possible that a string of breakthroughs…might by then have
occurred.”([2])([3])
While AI is moving fast, broad adoption remains an unchartered path
fraught with known and unforeseen challenges. Delays and other
obstacles are inevitable. Nor is machine learning a simple case of
flicking a switch and asking the machine to predict the outcome of
the Super Bowl and serve you a delicious martini.
Far from a typical out-of-the-box analytics solution, machine learning
relies on statistical algorithms managed and overseen by skilled
individuals called data scientists and machine learning engineers.
This is one labor market where job opportunities are destined for
growth but where supply is struggling to meet demand.
In fact, the current shortage of professionals with the necessary
expertise and training is one of the primary obstacles delaying AI’s
progress. According to Charles Green, the Director of Thought
Leadership at Belatrix Software:
“It’s a huge challenge to find data scientists, people with machine
learning experience, or people with the skills to analyze and use
the data, as well as those who can create the algorithms required
for machine learning. Secondly, while the technology is still
emerging, there are many ongoing developments. It’s clear that
AI is a long way from how we might imagine it.” [4]
Perhaps your own path to working in the field of machine learning
starts here, or maybe a baseline understanding is sufficient to fulfill
your curiosity for now.
This book focuses on the high-level fundamentals, including key
terms, general workflow, and statistical underpinnings of basic
machine learning algorithms to set you on your path. To design and
code intelligent machines, you’ll first need to develop a strong grasp
of classical statistics. Algorithms derived from classical statistics sit at
the heart of machine learning and constitute the metaphorical
neurons and nerves that power artificial cognitive abilities. Coding is
the other indispensable part of machine learning, which includes
managing and manipulating large amounts of data. Unlike building a
web 2.0 landing page with click-and-drag tools like Wix and
WordPress, machine learning is heavily dependent on Python, C++,
R, and other programming languages. If you haven’t learned a
relevant programming language, you will need to if you wish to make
further progress in this field. But for the purpose of this compact
starter’s course, the following chapters can be completed without any
programming experience.
While this book serves as an introductory course to machine
learning, please note it does not constitute an absolute beginner’s
introduction to mathematics, computer programming, and statistics.
A cursory knowledge of these fields or convenient access to an
Internet connection may be required to aid understanding in later
chapters.
For those who wish to dive into the coding aspect of machine
learning, Chapter 14 and Chapter 15 walk you through the entire
process of setting up a machine learning model using Python. A
gentle introduction to coding with Python has also been included in
the Appendix and information regarding further learning resources
can be found in the final section of this book.
2
WHAT IS MACHINE LEARNING?
In 1959, IBM published a paper in the IBM Journal of Research and
Development with an obscure and curious title for that time.
Authored by IBM’s Arthur Samuel, the paper investigated the
application of machine learning in the game of checkers “to verify the
fact that a computer can be programmed so that it will learn to play
a better game of checkers than can be played by the person who
wrote the program.” [5]

Figure 1: Historical mentions of “machine learning” in published books.

Source: Google Ngram Viewer, 2017

Although it wasn’t the first published work to use the term “machine
learning” per se, Arthur Samuel is regarded as the first person to
coin and define machine learning as the concept and specialized field
we know today. Samuel’s landmark journal submission, Some Studies
in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers, introduces
machine learning as a subfield of computer science that gives
computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. [6]
While not directly treated in Arthur Samuel’s initial definition, a key
characteristic of machine learning is the concept of self-learning. This
refers to the application of statistical modeling to detect patterns and
improve performance based on data and empirical information; all
without direct programming commands. This is what Arthur Samuel
described as the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed.
Samuel didn’t infer that machines may formulate decisions with no
upfront programming. On the contrary, machine learning is heavily
dependent on code input. Instead, he observed machines can
perform a set task using input data rather than relying on a direct
input command.

Figure 2: Comparison of Input Command vs Input Data

An example of an input command is entering “2+2” in a

programming language such as Python and clicking “Run” or hitting
“Enter” to view the output.
>>> 2+2
4
>>>
This represents a direct command with a pre-programmed answer,
which is typical of most computer applications. Unlike traditional
computer programming, though, where outputs or decisions are pre-
defined by the programmer, machine learning uses data as input to
build a decision model. Decisions are generated by deciphering
relationships and patterns in the data using probabilistic reasoning,
trial and error, and other computationally-intensive techniques. This
means that the output of the decision model is determined by the
contents of the input data rather than any pre-set rules defined by a
human programmer. The human programmer is still responsible for
feeding the data into the model, selecting an appropriate algorithm
and tweaking its settings (called hyperparameters) in order to reduce
prediction error, but the machine and developer operate a layer apart
in contrast to traditional programming.
To draw an example, let’s suppose that after analyzing YouTube
viewing habits the decision model identifies a significant relationship
among data scientists watching cat videos. A separate model,
meanwhile, identifies patterns among the physical traits of baseball
players and their likelihood of winning the season’s Most Valuable
Player (MVP) award.
In the first scenario, the machine analyzed which videos data
scientists enjoy watching on YouTube based on user engagement;
measured in likes, subscribes, and repeat viewing. In the second
scenario, the machine assessed the physical attributes of previous
baseball MVPs among other features such as age and education.
However, at no stage was the decision model told or programmed to
produce those two outcomes. By decoding complex patterns in the
input data, the model uses machine learning to find connections
without human help. This also means that a related dataset gathered
from another period of time, with fewer or greater data points, might
lead the model to a slightly different output.
Another distinct feature of machine learning is the ability to improve
predictions based on experience. Mimicking the way humans base
decisions on experience and the success or failure of past attempts,
machine learning utilizes exposure to data to improve decision
outcomes. The socializing of data points provides experience and
enables the model to familiarize itself with patterns in the data.
Conversely, insufficient input data restricts the model’s ability to
deconstruct underlying patterns in the data and limits its capacity to
respond to potential variance and random phenomena found in live
data. Exposure to input data thereby helps to deepen the model’s
understanding of patterns, including the significance of changes in
the data, and to construct an effective self-learning model.
A common example of a self-learning model is a system for detecting
spam email messages. Following an initial serving of input data, the
model learns to flag emails with suspicious subject lines and body
text containing keywords that correlate highly with spam messages
flagged by users in the past. Indications of spam email may comprise
words like dear friend, free, invoice, PayPal, Viagra, casino, payment,
bankruptcy, and winner. However, as the machine is fed more data, it
might also find exceptions and incorrect assumptions that render the
model susceptible to bad predictions. If there is limited data to
reference its decision, the following email subject, for example, might
be wrongly classified as spam: “PayPal has received your payment
for Casino Royale purchased on eBay.”
As this is a genuine email sent from a PayPal auto-responder, the
spam detection system is lured into producing a false-positive based
on the initial input data. Traditional programming is highly
susceptible to this problem because the model is rigidly defined
according to pre-set rules. Machine learning, on the other hand,
incorporates exposure to data to refine its model, adjust its
assumptions, and respond appropriately to unique data points such
as the scenario described.
While data is used to source the self-learning process, more data
doesn’t automatically equate to better decisions; the input data must
be relevant to the scope of the model. In Data and Goliath: The
Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World, Bruce
Schneir writes that, “When looking for the needle, the last thing you
want to do is pile lots more hay on it.”[7] This means that adding
irrelevant data can be counter-productive to achieving a desired
result. In addition, the amount of input data should be compatible
with the processing resources and time that is available.

Training & Test Data

In machine learning, input data is typically split into training data and
test data. The first split of data is the training data, which is the
initial reserve of data used to develop your model. In the spam email
detection example, false-positives similar to the PayPal auto-response
message might be detected from the training data. Modifications
must then be made to the model, e.g., email notifications issued
from the sending address “[email protected]” should be
excluded from spam filtering. Applying machine learning, the model
can be trained to automatically detect these errors (by analyzing
historical examples of spam messages and deciphering their
patterns) without direct human interference.
After you have developed a model based on patterns extracted from
the training data and you are satisfied with the accuracy of its
prediction, you can test the model on the remaining data, known as
the test data. If you are also satisfied with the model’s performance
using the test data, the model is ready to filter incoming emails in a
live setting and generate decisions on how to categorize those
messages. We will discuss training and test data further in Chapter 6.

The Anatomy of Machine Learning

The final section of this chapter explains how machine learning fits
into the broader landscape of data science and computer science.
This includes understanding how machine learning connects with
parent fields and sister disciplines. This is important, as you will
encounter related terms in machine learning literature and courses.
Relevant disciplines can also be difficult to tell apart, especially
machine learning and data mining.
Let’s start with a high-level introduction. Machine learning, data
mining, artificial intelligence, and computer programming fall under
the umbrella of computer science, which encompasses everything
related to the design and use of computers. Within the all-
encompassing space of computer science is the next broad field of
data science. Narrower than computer science, data science
comprises methods and systems to extract knowledge and insights
from data with the aid of computers.
Figure 3: The lineage of machine learning represented by a row of
Russian matryoshka dolls

Emerging from computer science and data science as the third

matryoshka doll from the left in Figure 3 is artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence, or AI, encompasses the ability of machines to
perform intelligent and cognitive tasks. Comparable to how the
Industrial Revolution gave birth to an era of machines simulating
physical tasks, AI is driving the development of machines capable of
simulating cognitive abilities.
While still broad but dramatically more honed than computer science
and data science, AI spans numerous subfields that are popular and
newsworthy today. These subfields include search and planning,
reasoning and knowledge representation, perception, natural
language processing (NLP), and of course, machine learning.
Figure 4: Visual representation of the relationship between data-related
fields

For students interested in AI, machine learning provides an excellent

starting point because it provides a narrower and more practical lens
of study (in comparison to AI). Algorithms applied in machine
learning can also be used in other disciplines, including perception
and natural language processing. In addition, a Master’s degree is
adequate to develop a certain level of expertise in machine learning,
but you may need a PhD to make genuine progress in artificial
intelligence.
As mentioned, machine learning overlaps with data mining—a sister
discipline that is based on discovering and unearthing patterns in
large datasets. Both techniques rely on inferential methods, i.e.
predicting outcomes based on other outcomes and probabilistic
reasoning, and draw from a similar assortment of algorithms
including principal component analysis, regression analysis, decision
trees, and clustering techniques. To add further confusion, the two
techniques are commonly mistaken and misreported or even
explicitly misused. The textbook Data mining: Practical machine
learning tools and techniques with Java is said to have originally
been titled Practical machine learning but for marketing reasons
“data mining” was later appended to the title.[8]
Lastly, because of their interdisciplinary nature, experts from a
diverse spectrum of disciplines tend to define data mining and
machine learning differently. This has led to confusion, in addition to
a genuine overlap between the two disciplines. But whereas machine
learning emphasizes the incremental process of self-learning and
automatically detecting patterns through experience derived from
exposure to data, data mining is a less autonomous technique of
extracting hidden insight.
Like randomly drilling a hole into the earth’s crust, data mining
doesn’t begin with a clear hypothesis of what insight it will dig up.
Instead, it seeks out patterns and relationships that are yet to be
mined and is, thus, well-suited for understanding large datasets with
complex patterns. As noted by the authors of Data Mining: Concepts
and Techniques, data mining came as a result of advances in data
collection and database management beginning in the early 1980s[9]
and an urgent need to make sense of progressively larger and
complicated datasets.[10]
Whereas data mining focuses on analyzing input variables to
predict a new output, machine learning extends to analyzing
both input and output variables. This includes supervised
learning techniques that compare known combinations of input and
output variables to discern patterns and make predictions, and
reinforcement learning which randomly trials a massive number of
input variables to produce a desired output. A third machine learning
technique, called unsupervised learning, generates predictions based
on the analysis of input variables with no known target output. This
technique is often used in combination or in preparation for
supervised learning under the name of semi-supervised learning, and
although it overlaps with data mining, unsupervised learning tends to
deviate from standard data mining methods such as association and
sequence analysis.
Table 1: Comparison of techniques based on the utility of input and
output data/variables

To consolidate the difference between data mining and machine

learning, let’s consider an example of two teams of archaeologists.
One team has little knowledge of their target excavation site and
imparts domain knowledge to optimize their excavation tools to find
patterns and remove debris to reveal hidden artifacts. The team’s
goal is to manually excavate the area, find new valuable discoveries,
and then pack up their equipment and move on. A day later, they fly
to another exotic destination to start a new project with no
relationship to the site they excavated the day before.
The second team is also in the business of excavating historical sites,
but they pursue a different methodology. They refrain from
excavating the main pit for several weeks. In this time, they visit
other nearby archaeological sites and examine patterns regarding
how each archaeological site is constructed. With exposure to each
excavation site, they gain experience, thereby improving their ability
to interpret patterns and reduce prediction error. When it comes time
to excavate the final and most important pit, they execute their
understanding and experience of the local terrain to interpret the
target site and make predictions.
As is perhaps evident by now, the first team puts their faith in data
mining whereas the second team relies on machine learning. While
both teams make a living excavating historical sites to discover
valuable insight, their goals and methodology are distinctly different.
The machine learning team invests in self-learning to create a system
that uses exposure to data to enhance its capacity to make
predictions. The data mining team, meanwhile, concentrates on
excavating the target area with a more direct and approximate
approach that relies on human intuition rather than self-learning.
We will look more closely at self-learning specific to machine learning
in the next chapter and their treatment of input and output variables.
3
MACHINE LEARNING
CATEGORIES
Machine learning incorporates several hundred statistical-based
algorithms and choosing the right algorithm(s) for the job is a
constant challenge of working in this field. Before examining specific
algorithms, it’s important to consolidate one’s understanding of the
three overarching categories of machine learning and their treatment
of input and output variables.

Supervised Learning
As the first branch of machine learning, supervised learning
comprises learning patterns from labeled datasets and decoding the
relationship between input variables (independent variables) and
their known output (dependent variable). An independent variable
(expressed as an uppercase “X”) is the variable that supposedly
impacts the dependent variable (expressed as a lowercase “y”). For
example, the supply of oil (X) impacts the cost of fuel (y).
Supervised learning works by feeding the machine sample data
containing various independent variables (input) and the desired
solution/dependent variable (output). The fact that both the input
and output values are known qualifies the dataset as “labeled.” The
algorithm then deciphers patterns that exist between the input and
output values and uses this knowledge to inform further predictions.
Using supervised learning, for example, we can predict the market
value of a used car by analyzing other cars and the relationship
between car attributes (X) such as year of make, car brand, mileage,
etc., and the selling price of the car (y). Given that the supervised
learning algorithm knows the final price of the cars sold, it can work
backward to determine the relationship between a car’s value
(output) and its characteristics (input).
After the machine deciphers the rules and patterns between X and y,
it creates a model: an algorithmic equation for producing an outcome
with new data based on the underlying trends and rules learned from
the training data. Once the model is refined and ready, it can be
applied to the test data and trialed for accuracy.

Figure 5: Car value prediction model

Examples of commons algorithms used for supervised learning

include regression analysis (i.e. linear regression, logistic regression,
non-linear regression), decision trees, k-nearest neighbors, neural
networks, and support vector machines, each of which are
introduced in later chapters.

Unsupervised Learning
In the case of unsupervised learning, the output variables are
unlabeled, and combinations of input and output variables aren’t
known. Unsupervised learning instead focuses on analyzing
relationships between input variables and uncovering hidden patterns
that can be extracted to create new labels regarding possible
outputs.
If you group data points based on the purchasing behavior of SME
(Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) and large enterprise
customers, for example, you’re likely to see two clusters of data
points emerge. This is because SMEs and large enterprises tend to
have different procurement needs. When it comes to purchasing
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