FL CD 19 GOP 10-7-25 Memorandum
Uploaded by
Jacob OglesFL CD 19 GOP 10-7-25 Memorandum
Uploaded by
Jacob OglesTO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: ROB SCHMIDT, INQUIRE
RE: FLORIDA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 19 GOP PRIMARY VOTER SURVEY
DATE: OCTOBER 7, 2025
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Our recent survey (conducted 10/4/25-10/6/25) finds that Sheriff Carmine Marceno would be the clear
frontrunner in the Republican primary for Congress should he decide to enter the race. All of the announced
Republican candidates are largely unknown and draw low single digit support on a ballot test – regardless of
whether Sheriff Marceno runs or not.
✓ Among only the announced candidates, two-thirds (67%) are Undecided and none exceed 9%. When Sheriff
Marceno is included in a follow-up question, Marceno receives 34% with his nearest competitor 27 points behind.
Sheriff Marceno holds double digits leads across all sub-groups and his vote share increases with seniors, very
conservative voters and high propensity voters – the key demographics in a Republican primary electorate.
Names Rotated Without Marceno With Marceno
Carmine Marceno ** 34%
Madison Cawthorn 8% 4%
Chris Collins 9% 5%
Johnny Fratto 0.2% 0.2%
Ola Hawatmeh 0.2% 0.2%
Catalina Lauf 1% 1%
Dylan Modarelli 0% 0%
Jim Oberweis 8% 7%
Mike Pedersen 2% 0.4%
Jim Schwartzel 5% 4%
Undecided 67% 44%
✓ Sheriff Marceno’s strong ballot performance is driven by his high favorable rating of 57%. This indicates even
more room for Marceno to grow his vote. All other candidates tested are unknown to the vast majority of
Republican primary voters.
Carmine Madison Chris Jim Jim
Names Rotated
Marceno Cawthorn Collins Oberweis Schwartzel
TOTAL FAVORABLE 57% 13% 11% 12% 8%
Very Favorable 32% 5% 3% 5% 4%
Somewhat Favorable 25% 9% 7% 7% 4%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 14% 11% 3% 6% 3%
No Opinion 8% 14% 7% 17% 17%
Never Heard Of 20% 61% 69% 66% 72%
NET FAV-UNFAV. +43 +2 +8 +6 +5
________________________________________________________________________
2665 South Bayshore Drive, Suite 220-23, Miami, FL 33133
Phone: 845-893-5572
BOTTOM LINE:
These numbers speak for themselves. Should Sheriff Carmine Marceno decide
to run for Congress, he would become the immediate frontrunner and be
well-positioned for a resounding victory in the Republican primary.
Methodology: Inquire conducted a survey of 302 likely August 2026 Republican primary election voters in Florida Congressional District 19 from
October 4th to 6th, 2025. A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages. The live telephone
interviews were conducted by professional interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. The text message
respondents were sent a personalized invitation to complete the survey on a secure online platform. Interview selection was random and interviews
were stratified by county commission district, age, gender and educational attainment to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous even-year
Republican primary elections. In order to qualify for this survey, voters had to have voted in at least two of the last four even-year Republican
primary elections (2024, 2022, 2020 or 2018). Additionally, all respondents had to indicate that they are registered Republicans and likely to vote in
the August 2026 Republican primary elections. This poll of 302 likely August 2026 Republican primary election voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a
95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and refusals.
________________________________________________________________________
2665 South Bayshore Drive, Suite 220-23, Miami, FL 33133
Phone: 845-893-5572
