On International viewpoint journal under the article The Marxist Case for Revolution Today: The End of History?

Ernest Mandel says, Revolutions are historical facts of life. Almost all major states in todays world are born from revolutions. Whether one likes it or not, our century has seen something like three dozen revolutions-some victorious, others defeated-and there is no sign that we have come to the end of the revolutionary experience1. Through a brief insight given by Mandel, without doubt history gives us a clear picture of what has happened and allow us to predict the future, in other words it alerts us if there is a danger. Whether revolution is good or bad one can conclude it depends on the side you belong, affected by it negatively or positively. This paper basically aimed at giving an insight of why revolution occurs where it does with the factors that make it to occur where it does. Together with these introductory words, this very first part of the paper is going to provide definitions of revolution, some types of revolution and their examples and introduce to you the main factors for revolution to occur where it does. The next part after introduction main factors will be discussed in detail before making a conclusion which will base on the recommendation and the prediction of the future state affair in considering the revolution wave around the world the question being, why tense revolutions in Africa than any other epoch ever in history? Starting with definition, the term revolution has been defined differently by different scholars as among them are these two given by Jeff Godwin first, revolution is any and all instances in which a state or a political regime is overthrown and thereby transformed by a popular movement in an irregular, extra constitutional and/or violent fashion; and second, revolutions entail not only mass mobilization and regime change, but also more or less rapid and fundamental social, economic and/or cultural change, during or soon after the struggle for state power2. Jack Goldstone defines it as an effort to transform the political institutions and the justifications for political authority in society, accompanied by formal or informal mass mobilization and noninstitutionalized actions that undermine authorities3. Skocpol defined revolution as "rapid, basic transformations of society's state and class structures accompanied and in part carried through by class-based revolts from below4. Hannah Arendt, on the other hand, interprets the revolutionary experience as a kind of restoration, whereby the insurgents attempt to restore liberties and privileges which were lost as the result of the government's temporary lapse into despotism5.

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Mandel, E. (2010). From http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?rubrique67 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution. Accessed: 16/04/2012 3 Op.cit 4 Op.cit

Tocqueville (1955), on the other hand, defined revolution as an overthrow of the legally constituted elite, which initiated a period of intense social, political, and economic change. To the Hegelian, the revolutionary idea is equated with irresistible change-a manifestation of the world spirit in an unceasing quest for its own fulfilment. Similarly, the Marxist, although opposed to Hegelian idealism, sees revolution as a product of irresistible historical forces, which culminate in a struggle be-tween the bourgeoisie and the proletariat6. There are six types of revolution7 the first type, the Jacquerie, which is a spontaneous mass peasant rising, usually carried out in the name of the traditional authorities, Church and King, and with the limited aims of purging the local or national elites. A good example is Pugachev rebellion in Russia in 1773-1775. The second type, the Millenarian Rebellion, is similar to the first but with the added feature of a utopian dream, inspired by a living messiah. An example is the Florentine revolution led by Savonarola in I494. The third type is the Anarchistic Rebellion, the nostalgic (regretful) reaction to progressive change, involving a romantic idealization of the old order: the Pilgrimage of Grace and the Vendee are good examples. The fourth is the Jacobin Communist Revolution which is a sweeping fundamental change in political organization, social structure, economic property control and the predominant myth of a social order, thus indicating a major break in the continuity of development. The fifth type is the Conspiratorial Coup d' tat, the planned work of a tiny elite fired by an oligarchic, sectarian (intolerant/ religious) ideology examples include the Nasser revolution in Egypt or the Castro revolution in Cuba. The last is Militarized Mass Insurrection, which is a deliberately planned mass revolutionary war, guided by dedicated elite. Example of the type of struggle has occurred in Yugoslavia, China, Algeria, and Vietnam. However, the six types have been criticized8 and9 that led into four major types namely Mass revolution Russian (1917), Cuban (1959), Algerian (1962), Chinese (1949), Viet Minh (1954). Revolutionary coup; Turkish (1919), Egyptian (1952), Iraqi (1958). Reform coup; Sudanese (1958), Argentinian (1955), Turkish (1960). Palace revolution; Venezuelan (1948), Haitian (1957), Brazilian (1955). A study of the causes of the French Revolution and of other revolutions of recent centuries leads to the conclusion that there is a combination of five causes which, together, give a more satisfactory explanation of important revolutions than any other theory. This conclusion regarding

Tanter, R. and Midlarsky, M. (1967). The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 11, No. 3.p.264. Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/172594 6 Op.cit 7 Stone, L. (1966). World Politics, Vol. 18, No. 2 pp. 63-64. Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2009694 8 Ibid.p.64 9 Tanter, R. and Midlarsky, M. (1967). The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 11, No. 3.p.265. Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/172594

revolutionary causation (causation theory of revolution) has been checked against several works which deal with the nature of revolution-particularly Leon Trotsky's History of the Russian Revolution (New York, I937), the article by Alfred Meusel in the Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences on "Revolution and Counter-revolution," Lyford P. Edwards' The Natural History of Revolution (Chicago, I927), and Crane Brinton's The Anatomy of Revolutions (New York, I938). Though there other ways of categorize them, still the fact of long-term and immediate causes can never be underestimated which can be termed also as remote or secondary or contributory cause and immediate or primary or main cause.10 Drawing those two categories five main factors (within three main sub factors) can be examined to explain the causation of revolution and answer the question why do they occur where they do? Hereby are explained. The first two of the five causes of revolution may be placed in a single category. That category may be called "demand for change." This demand for change can be categorized into two parts; widespread provocation and solidified public opinion. Widespread provocation; this happened when there is discontent in the society. This means that if there is dissatisfaction suitably to create not merely a certain remove of individual hopelessness but a widespread desire for action, widespread provocation is inevitable. Such provocation came to being everywhere where revolution occurred such as in the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and the Russian Revolution from such things as land hunger; taxation; high fees for services rendered or for services not rendered; exclusion from certain kinds of prestige or from certain kinds of office; misgovernment; bad roads; commercial restrictions; corruption; military or diplomatic defeat; famine; high prices; low wages and unemployment. Such provocations are to be found forerunner to every revolution. Second factor in creating that kind of demand for change which leads to revolutions is a solidified public opinion. The fact that I am discontented will not lead me to revolution unless I am aware that quite a number of other people are equally discontented and are likely to unite with me in the expression of my discontent. General awareness of bitterness against the provocations, together with the provocations themselves, creates that kind of demand for change which becomes effective in making revolutions. It is from the provocations explained earlier where the with the efforts of great-men came to being and the second sub-factor can be drawn by. In order to have a revolution, there must be not merely a demand for revolution but also a certain hopefulness of success. Hopefulness, therefore, constitutes a second category of revolutionary causes. Hopefulness also may be broken down into two parts; program of reform and trusted

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Gottschalk, L. (1944), American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 50, No. 1 Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2770336 pp. 1-2

leadership. Sometimes there are several conflicting programs. In that case revolutionary waves, in each of which one of the conflicting programs is dominant, are likely to follow each other in fairly rapid succession. For example, in the English which the revolution came to be known as puritan revolution, King Charles I wanted to impose the Anglican liturgy in Scotland as new programme, in the French the parliament frequently protested royal initiatives that they believed to threaten the traditional rights and liberties of the people. In widely distributed publications, they held up the image of a historically free France and denounced the absolute rule of the crown that in their view threatened traditional liberties by imposing religious orthodoxy and new taxes11. This means Great-men took the opportunity of the weakness of the government to supplied programs for Revolution. Under the trusted leadership point of view; Leadership become another important factor in creating that kind of hopefulness which makes for successful revolution. The trust people gain from the great men due to unfulfilled promises from their leaders may facilitate revolution to occur. This is exemplified by several revolutions that occurred around the world. For instance,

Batistas government, which came to power following a military coup in 1952, had become widely unpopular as a result of rampant corruption and harsh repression of dissent. Batista faced growing opposition to his rule from many segments of Cuban society12. Recently, the Egyptian revolution which began on Tuesday, 25 January 2011 and continued till February 2012, different sources associate it with the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak himself. Grievances of Egyptian protesters were focused on legal and political issues including police brutality, state of emergency laws, lack of free elections and freedom of speech, uncontrollable corruption, and economic issues including high unemployment, food price inflation, and low minimum wages. The primary demands from protest organizers were the end of the Hosni Mubarak regime and the end of emergency law; freedom, justice, a responsive non-military government, and a say in the management of Egypt's resources13. All these four factors, however, even when they act together, cannot by themselves create revolution. They are only the remote causes of revolution. There are several examples of popular movement in which all four have been operative and yet successful revolutions have not occurred; or in which, if the initial revolutionary steps were taken, they failed to effect significant change for example, the Revolution of I905 in Russia. In that instance nearly the same causes operated as in I9I7. The provocations were remarkably similar in I905 and in I9I7; the same parties existed in I905 and promoted nearly as high a degree of solidified public opinion as in I9I7; they had the same programs-Constitutional, Revolutionary Socialist, Menshevik, and Bolshevik. They had the
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Microsoft Student 2008 [DVD]. Ibid. 13 http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2011_Egyptian_revolution&action

same leaders Milyukov, Kerensky, Trotsky, Lenin14. Yet the revolution failed in I905 and succeeded in I9I7. Why? The answer leads to the very last and the most important of the five causes of revolution under discussion. The weakness of the conservative forces; this is the necessary immediate cause of revolution. Despite the universal demand for revolutionary change, despite intense hopefulness of success, unless those who wish to maintain the status quo are so weak that they cannot maintain themselves, there is little likelihood of a successful revolution. That is why the many revolutionary outbreaks against Louis XV of France failed but one finally succeeded against Louis XVI in I789. Louis XV had the support of the army, the clergy, and a great number of the nobility and therefore was able to maintain himself against practically the same kind of revolutionary spirit as that of I789. But in I789 Louis XVI could not count on a unified army, clergy, or nobility and, as a consequence, was obliged to yield to a revolutionary spirit that differed, if at all, in degree rather than in kind. Similarly, In I905 the Russian army and the Russian aristocracy were firm and the revolution failed. But in I9I7, because the army and the aristocracy were disrupted, the Russian Revolution succeeded15. Apart from the five factors explained earlier, Poverty, inflation, and bankruptcy, corruption and treachery, military reversal or diplomatic defeat, are also obvious factors contributing to the weakness of governments and dominant classes. These factors which are often, economic in nature, are usually the same as those that created the provocations necessary toward a demand for revolution. In all circumstances, the economic factor does not make revolution abruptly rather than the long term process. Currently the waves of coups, civil wars and revolution are overwhelming in almost the whole continent of Africa and the world at large. Since the history predicts the future, there is every need for people concerned to make reasonable efforts before the things get worsen. The reasons or causes of revolution are explained above; different theorists have postulated the causes of revolution. The words to mark the conclusion of this paper cannot be undermined that, A revolution occurs when the upper class cannot and the lower class will not continue the old system.

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Gottschalk, L. (1944), American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 50, No. 1 Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2770336 P.7 15 Gottschalk, L. (1944), American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 50, No. 1 Accessed: 16/04/2012 from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2770336 p.7

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